it is 5:00 a.m. in mornew yk your top five at 5:00. another busy day as we gear up for earnings and fresh jobs data and another round of jay powell on capitol hill. speaking of powell, ark's cathie wood with the new take on the higher inflation. and gm out with a warning about fire risk and a warning you've got to hear to believe.

netflix making a key hire to make moves beyond streaming. get ready. the first round of the expanded child tax credit set to hit your bank account today and higher income families may be getting a check. we'll tell you how much. it is thursday, july 15th. this is "worldwide exchange. good morning, good afternoon, good evening. welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan thank you for joining us again here on "worldwide exchange. we will get more on the stimulus story coming up. it is something you may have forgotten or didn't realize, but it could be a pleasant surprise in your bank account today or tomorrow we'll tell you about it in a few minutes. let's start with where your money stands on this thursday

morning. it could be another good day for technology stocks. nasdaq futures up .40% dow futures down a touch s&p up as well it is certainly early. it was another up day for the dow and s&p on wednesday nasdaq did drop very slightly for its second day of losses looking like a much better day today. in the bond market right now, because all eyes on the 10-year, particularly if you invest in tech, guess what that yield moving down a touch again to 1.31% also, let's watch oil. there were reports surfacing late yesterday that saudi arabia and the united arab emirates may have reached, finally, a compromise over an opec plus policy to unlock more supply nearing now a two-week long stalemate. it is nothing i, or we, can confirm yet.

if a deal gets done, it adds 400,000 barrels a day to the market wti crude down just a touch. we will get to that in a moment. before that, a check on the morning's top stories and who better for that bertha coombs with those >> reporter: brian, second quarter growth for china showing an increase of 7.9% from a year ago. that is just shy of expectations the economy facing the dual head winds of higher raw material costs and new covid cases. retail sales jumping 12% last month from a year ago. also beating expectations is industrial production which grew more than expected meantime, staying in asia, taiwan semiconductor forecasting

continued strong demand amid the ongoing global chip shortage record revenue of $13 billion in the second quarter that was up 28% from a year ago. it expects revenue for the third quarter to be up 20% the company says it expects auto chip shortage to gradually reduce this quarter, overall semi capacity tightness will extend into next year. gm is warning chevy bolt owners not to put them inside or charge overnight because of fire concerns gm says two of the vehicles caught fire after they were repaired the automaker said it bought back some of the recalled vehicles, but delivered to say

how many that is something to worry about, brian >> all right these are older models let's be clear if you own one of the cars, one of the 25 or 30 people that bought one of the older bolts, what do you do stand outside at night don't charge it alone. don't put it in your garage. not a vote of confidence >> reporter: they say they have a software update that can help fix that, but obviously, it is still an issue they are not that old, really. 2019 that's just a three-year-old car. you wouldn't expect to have that problem. >> you're being nice i'm turning 50 on monday i didn't want to be mean as i get older. >> you are not getting older you're getting better. >> i quit. bertha, that's the nicest thing

anybody ever staaid to me. bertha, thank you very much. it's 5:05 and the show's already over wow. back to the markets. jay powell to head to the hill to testify before the senate today. telling house members yesterday inflation is elevated in the coming months, but due to rising used car prices. although, probably not the bolt. cathie wood sharing that sentiment while speaking to cnbc yesterday. >> we believe used car prices are going to fall. they've gone way too far too fast we talk all the time about the defl deflationary forces. leah mentioned it earlier. it is not just on the disruptive innovation side. the company causing the falling prices that explode demand

that's good deflation. >> joining us to talk about that and the macro markets is howard capital management ceo vance howard vance, good to have you on if you look at the market, it was all used car prices. skewing the data where do you fall in the inflation camp >> you know, i'm not worried about inflation. you and i, brian, talked about it a number of times it is temporary. it will work its way through i actually went. we took a big position in sosx, the semiconductor index. i actually went to 12 to 14 dealerships to ask where inconvventory was and talk as a business owner are you getting the cars you need you have a lot of inventory as far as used as far as sitting out there and the new inventory

is harder to get it is picking up i talked to the people and they are starting to get new cars in. i think we are starting to see a turn in the semiconductor chips moving up and auto sales moving up as far as new cars go as far as inflation goes, i'm not worried. the big challenge is if congress wants too overinflate and overtax. >> you tie cars and semiconductors together, vance if you look at new car lots, there are not a lot of new cars on them. they need the semiconductors to make the cars. there is a shortage to build the cars to put them in. you want to buy a car. we will have your car ready in february of 2022 it goes together it doesn't sound like you are that worried about the semiconductor shortage issue >> i'm not like i said, you know, we had a good trade on sosx it broke out to a new 52-week

high we are at the beginning trade of the semiconductor being at a nice upward trend to making people money when i talk to the auto dealerships and i went door-to-door to ask them because it is correlated to chips. they are starting to get the parts. if they get new cars in, but not as fast as they were before the pandemic, but getting new cars in this is telling me the chip supply is getting there and get to the end user. if i -- we bought a big position in sosx. i would not try to pick the next great chip stock it is like finding a needle in the haystack it is a good basket of stocks and chips. >> a needle in a stack of needles. well said, vance

what about the macro markets here those grind higher every day we haven't had a 400-point u day for a while. every gain is a new high where do you stand on the macro markets? >> i don't mind grinding higher. we're very bullish, brian. i have been criticized for being too bullish. our proprietary indicated 100% invested we told everybody buy on pull back this market is going higher. we get the garden variety corrections. 3%, 5% there is nothing to be afraid of any pull back is a buying opportunity. there's so much cash on the sidelines, brian it is like a built-in floor. you get a 1% correction in the market, people come diving back in there is more risk right now in not taking risk. you need to be in this game.

this market's going higher >> well said $4 trillion worldwide of cash sitting around waiting to be put to use in the stock market or new car or a solid gold yacht. whatever vance howard, pleasure to have you on >> thank you, brian. >> thank you we are just getting started on thursday morning. when we come back, your morning's big money movers shares of amc and gamestop continuing to test retail traders' patience. plus, a potential major cybersecurity deal in the works. who may be buying whom ahead and later, the posh club the soho house set to go public. unlike the in demand clubs, will investors want to get into the stock? the ceo will join us we are back in a moment.

this is cynthia suarez, cfo of go-go foodco., an online food delivery service. business was steady, until... gogo-foodco. go check it out. whaatt?! overnight, users tripled. which meant hiring 20 new employees and buying 20 new laptops. so she used her american express business card, which gives her more membership rewards points on her business purchases. somebody ordered some laptops? cynthia suarez. cfo. mvp. get the card built for business. by american express.

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♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ time for the big money movers key stock stories happening right now. let's go first up blackstone. buying a 10% stake in the aig life and retirement business it will manage $50 billion of the portfolio with the amount rising to $3 billion in the next few years.

blackstone and aig are higher right now. stock number two netflix. hired a former facebook executive to run the video game business it wants to grow a video game business to get beyond streaming shows and movies finally the memeiest of meme stocks amc is down 41% in july. gamestop is up by 23%. have no fear, long-term holders. a couple of months, i mean monstrous gains for the year up more than 1,400%. games and movies you go on deck, your morning rbi. why many of you, all you out there getting on the road for work, a lot sooner than you think. incredible stats on business

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this is real money by the way, a handy cnbc calculator online that can show you just how much you might be getting. for example, a family making $75,000 a year with one kid under 6 and one between 6 and 17, will see a monthly check of $550 through december. even a household making $200,000 a year, a lot of money in many parts of the country, will get about $300 a month wow! what's going to happen to that cash a team at cowen rcrunched the numbers and is with us now viven azer is with us. viven, thanks for joining us i read the note with wide eyes i said it to the team and said we have to talk more about this because honestly i'm one of those who is surprised by it there's a lot of money that's

going to go out to about 40 million households today or tomorrow through the end of the year where do you think that money is going to go? >> good morning. thanks for having me yeah, i was fortunate to collaborate with a number of colleagues at cowen. we looked at personal consumption expense as a benchmark for consumer deployment of the $150 billion in stimulus that the 39 million households will receive over the next 12 months we identified $37 billion in savings across the eight industries that we looked at for my coverage, it is $4 billion. principally going toward alcohol and lesser extent to cannabis. in total, we identified $37 billion. >> you know, some of that, obviously will go to essentials. debt payment as well

rent when it comes to discretionary spending, your sector, cannabis and tobacco. what companies and stocks may be the beneficiaries of the excess cash >> in alcohol, consolation pl brands number three company in the united states. beer tends to be a more popular alcoholic beverage segment among low-income consumers owners and makers of corona and modella. we think they are set up well for high single digit top line growth this year >> okay. they are one i know other parts of the report, viven. you teamed up with your colleagues i'm not going to ask you to comment on their stocks. you are pretty siloed. overall, you expect outside necessities, this could benefit restaurants or benefit consumer

technology or travel >> yeah. the really good news is consumer balance sheets are healthy we saw consumer savings rates triple during the pandemic given the health of the consumer balance sheet, we think some portion of the $150 billion in stimulus will be deployed against discretionary spending restaurants will benefit with 95% of consumers eating out. >> and you talk about consumer sentiment strong millions of households will wake up today or tomorrow and say somebody put $400 in my bank account. i don't think a lot of people are talking about this you call it in your report, quote unappreciated stimulus >> that's right. 80% of households receive the funds by direct deposit.

the irs figured out how to do that under the previous stimulus programs this is not a tax credit it is direct stimulus to consumers. under the prior paradigm, if you didn't make enough money to pay income taxes at the federal level, you weren't benefit from the child tax create all >> yeah. for many, many families, they need this as well. to your point, a lot of families for whom this is a nice cherry on top to what may be an already strong balance sheet going out to nearly 40 million households. viven azer, we appreciate you coming on. have a great day all right. let's get a check on the other top headlines. including continued demonstrations in the streets of cuba as things start to heat up in havana. nbc's frances rivera is in new york with that and more. >> good morning, brian

we are starting to find out what is going on there. after cut off from the world for several days, the cuban government restored internet to the island here is what they didn't want us to see raids, assaults, police breaking into homes, drags residents out, just for protesting and people being beaten in the street the washington post reporting 200 protesters arrested. and a victory for britney spears she scored a win over her father's conservatorship they will be able to choose her own attorney and the nba finals are all tied up. the bucks beat the suns. chris paul put up 40 points, including ten straight down the stretch. 109-103, brian >> yeah.

i don't know about you, frances, i said up and watched the entire game which is why i look the way i do go bucks >> as long as it keeps going on. you have your late nights coming up >> i know. milwaukee's been in the finals once you have to root for laverne & shirley. see you soon take care. on deck, fighting cyber crime. the new steps the white house may take to go after ransomware at attacks. are we really ready to go after russia by the way, follow our podcast. it is called "worldwide exchange." dow futures down nasdaq up. mixed markets. we're back right after this. (vo) introducing 48 square centimeters of earning potential. flawlessly designed. undeniably versatile. unlimited 2% cash back.

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jobs, earnings and jay powell th those are your big money themes for this thursday. and another round of bank earnings set to bust out with morgan stanley crossing the tape. and do you want to get into soho house stock that is. the members only club going public nick jones is here get gussied up

it is thursday, july 15th. this is "worldwide exchange. welcome or welcome back. good thursday morning. thanks for joining us. i'm brian sullivan let's get right now to how your money is shaping up. the stock futures are mixed. you probably only care about big technology stocks. that is what everybody buys these days nasdaq up .75% looking to make more new highs apple, amazon, you name it nasdaq futures up. dow futures down the s&p and dow continue every day to just grind to new highs well solar stocks not seeing a

lot of shine in yesterday's session. a number down 7% we talk about oil and gas, but let's focus on renewable energy. sun power, asure power names to watch today a similar story for the pot stocks taking a hit all in the speculation that the democrats bill to decriminalize marijuana may not pass grow generation all down between 7% and 11% all names to watch today we'll talk more about them on fast money at 5:00 p.m. which i will also be hosting see you there. let's gets a look at the top stories. bertha coombs is back with those. bertha, what do you have in round two? >> brian, federal reserve

chairman jay powell will speak before the senate banking committee. powell telling house members the economy is quote, a way off from where it needs to be for the central bank to change its policy he adds inflation increased notably, but continues to maintain due to temporary factors. shares of avast surging after the word it is in advanced talks with norton-lifelock that potential deal could be completed this month according to reports the move could help norton which deals with consumer cyber safety expand focus in consumer software. shares of norton lower on that development. speaking of cybersecurity. the biden administration is weighing new steps to combat the

growing threat of ransomware attacks. the white house is set to announce a task force on the matter those reports say potential moves being weighed include launching counter attacks on hackers and crackdown on the use of cryptocurrencies in the attacks through more rigorous tracing of proceeds paid to hackers. brian. >> big story there cybersecurity. eamon javers has been all over this story every week. a big hransomware story it doesn't appear to get better. bertha coombs, thank you very much let's turn back to the macro markets and your money and bring in our friend jeff kilburg of financial wealth and cnbc contributor. the cio of sanctionary wealth.

what is the macro he view of th markets? i don't know if we are hitting stall speed or what? how do you feel? >> i feel pretty good this morning. sully, great to see you. the interesting thing, i know we are in the heart of earnings season we are excited to see what morgan stanley does today. the banks have kicked off great sentiment. the theme is fed chairman powell he is so cool. he was able to shrug off cool numbers. i want to call him cool hand luke he allowed this to grind higher. lock-in-step across the sea, visco talking about not tightening any time soon the central banker with the one-two punch. all talking how they let inflation move higher. we can talk all we want about

inflation. we saw blackrock from the wage inflation move all employees higher 8%. there is inflation, but those are not the metrics that powell is using old cool hand luke has the markets moving higher. >> okay. i think cool hand luke i think i speak for our audience, i say some men you just can't reach let's talk about the banks >> wow >> you see what i did? >> i did >> morgan stanley out today. wells fargo had big numbers yesterday, mostly buyback, by the way. are you a buyer of the big banks? >> selective i like jpmorgan chase. we like exposure to morgan stanley and goldman sachs. the exchange etf is morgan

stanley and goldman sachs at 40%. we like exposure wells fargo. you can have wells fargo we are seeing it lag wells fargo in comparison the last three years xlf. if you look at the dispersion, it is dragging the xlf i'm out on wells fargo i'm sticking with citi and jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley with direct exposure >> we like to tie them together. the big bank stocks out with earnings come on. jpmorgan chase and wells fargo could not be more different than paul newman and robert redford >> look at you go, sully >> jpmorgan chase and morgan stanley. investment banks wells fargo owns more home loans in america than anybody else we have to dissect the difference more carefully, do we

not? >> you are right bank of america missed on revenue. got opipunished yesterday let's look at the sectors. the two worst sectors in 2020. energy and banks now in 2021, a theme approach makes sense. we're seeing banks come back look at 10-year at 1.31. we talk about the 10-year tethered at 1.5% we were right. we feel there is still a lot of opportunity owning the banks it is not because of the fixed income situation look at the investment banks you talk about the deals associated with that still a lot of deals to be done. >> okay. let's move outside of big banks and get to technology. a lot of attention on maybe, if not the most important stock in the world, certainly the widely owned. top ten holding in more than 200

etfs i'm talking apple. news yesterday about more iphones. stock quietly, don't tell anybody, grinding to new highs every day. are you at sanctuary wealth an owner of apple >> we own apple. we have the ability to protect cover calls. think bigger picture apple is still lagging up only 10%. when you look at what we own in technology, you have to own the technology giants. look at the microcapsule look at oracle that is a name we like to own. look at semiconductors we certainly own apple we are concerned up here that is why we take chips off the table by using option. you have to be more considerate

in the non-faang stocks. >> don't add new money to apple. if you own it, keep it maybe right covered calls to hedge a bit. >> also look at powell networks. you hit cybersecurity. other tech names will help you >> we are. we hit some of the banks we hit big tech. we have the notre dame helmet behind you >> always good >> a pleasure. take care, jeff. coming up, will investors go to where the money is? that's, of course, what we talked about the big banks as earnings continue to rollout. we talk to the head of bank trading from kbw coming up other key headlines as we go to break the etf industry rolling in it on track for a record year flow into the funds already

looking to out pace all of last year with 6$659 billion coming n to june. by the way, head's up. j&j recalling the aveeno and neutrogena sun screenings. j&j making the move after detecting a cancer-causing chemical in some samplesamples. and the faa warning spacex texas launch tower is unapproved the faa telling cnbc that spacex is building the tower, quote, at its own risk like going to space isn't risky. we're back right after this. i'm dad's greatest sandcastle - and greatest memory!

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walk to end alzheimer's is full of them. because flowers find a way to break through. just like we will. join the fight at alz.org/walk all right. we're getting in the middle of your favorite season not summer earnings season. big banks continuing to roll out. morgan stanley, u.s. bancorp and bny mellon earning and revenue coming in stronger than expected

you heard jeff talk about bank of america which missed analyst expectations let's talk more about the group and bring in r.j. grant at kbw r.j., good to have you back on wells fargo stock rose because they announced they will add to an $18 billion stock buyback overall, you guys dig into the numbers better than anybody. how have, under the hood, how have the numbers looked? >> good morning, brian thanks for having me on this morning. i do think the narrative coming into earnings is largely playing out with fees strong and positive trading results which we have seen from the bigger banks. the challenge remains on growth. i think bank of america did a good job of talking up positive outlook for the second half.

i have to say i think investors feel like the group has had a really big one and they are very happy now to take some profits and see how things develop in the second half of the year. >> what are they waiting for is it really just an interest rate story everybody thought, r.j., rates would end at 2%. whoops >> credit to you i remember when you tweeted in the middle of june i think the 10-year will close at 1.5%. at the time, that was a non consensus thought. >> thank you >> you're welcome. right now, that is looking like a fairly pressured call. i'm not 100% sure. i have to say we have to also look at how fast and how far the financials move from an under weighted position to an overweighted position in the course of a few months i understand that you had a once

in a lifetime event with covid and positive news with the vaccine. we had a ton of money flowing into the space i think it is very important to understand the context from where we were and where we are i think folks want to see more play out in terms of loan growth picks up and to your point, we broke technical levels on the rates. investors were happy owning financials when the 10-year was north of 1.5 when that fell apart, we he saw a bunch of money flow out of the space. you are still seeing that with the outflows in the etfs and some of the regional bank etfs it is more of a wait and see is what investors are telling us. >> yeah. by the way, you are my twitter follower r.j., thank you very much for

caring is there more action in the regional names you just talked about it, kind of we get the guests on and say look at pnc and truist you know what? the super regionals are the names people recommend the most. >> yeah. i think the super regionals, what we generally see over the years, is investors will go into the super regionals and feel really good about where we're heading in terms of the macro and terms of the economy that's clearly taking on water right now. you have some factors like we talked about with the 10-year pulling back is not great for the regional banks in times like this, people still want to be in the space and people want to go where you have some strong trading numbers and strong banking numbers where you

can generate fees. you are not as susceptible of trading rates as regional banks. i think the year of the regional banks lead the way higher and lower for investors to express views on the economy and right now, i feel like the regional banks are a tough, tough spot to put your money in short-term we are still positive, but it is taking a break right now regional banks don't have the offsets like the bigger banks and financials. >> by the way, as we say this, r.j., truist numbers are crossing as we speak $1.55 versus $1.19 they are looking pretty good off the cuff, truist >> i think right now would be thesentiment for regional bank

is tough they will dissect it hard. unfortunately, people are focusing on the negative as opposed to the positive. hopefully the micro overwhelms the macro. >> r.j. grant giving us the real-time hot take as the news breaks r.j., we appreciate you coming on sorry to drag you in the office at 5:50 in the morning >> i'm here. >> we appreciate it. thank you. >> thank you on deck, will you get into soho house stock that is. the cool club is going public. the ceo is joining us. we have wilfred frost next. and the rbi. the business travel may be greatly agexgerated. some numbers you got to hear next [wrestling bell rings] [music: “you're the best” by joe esposito]

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business was steady, until... gogo-foodco. go check it out. whaatt?! overnight, users tripled. which meant hiring 20 new employees and buying 20 new laptops. so she used her american express business card, which gives her more membership rewards points on her business purchases. somebody ordered some laptops? cynthia suarez. cfo. mvp. get the card built for business. by american express.

all right. time for the rbi today has to do with business travel you heard a lot in the last year about business travel is dead. it will never come back. we will zoom everything. well, like many things you hear, it may be not correct. at least according to the new bank of america survey thousands of frequent business travelers surveyed and on the whole, more people now expect to travel for work sooner than later. overall, 41% said they would be on the road by next year up from 30% who said the same thing a couple of months ago check out the random, but interesting stat and busy buy pie chart. 41% of those surveyed said they might travel more than before the pandemic another 15% said they may travel

50% more than before the pandemic think about that in total, 56% of travelers said they are likely to travel more for work than they did before covid and the lockdowns hit. pretty incredible stuff there. only 8% said they would drop by more than 50%. a huge drop in business travel likely coming. if that isn't random, but interesting, i don't know what is your next guest hopes those stats are on the mark. the ultra cool soho house club loves travelers and now investors. set to go public today they pricedd the company at $2.8 billion. let's bring in the ceo brought to us by our friend and former host of the show and

wilfred, we haven't talked my sympathies on the england match in euro 2020 thank you for bringing us our next guest >> those sympathies are appreciated. by our next guest who is probably watching that on his place. nick jones $3 billion valuation as brian said congrats on that, nick welcome. >> thank you, wil. thank you for having me on >> i want to touch not on the ipo, but pandemic question you are spread all over the world. different rules and regulations. how tough was that how big is the bounce back with the clubs you have been able to reopen >> it has been very challenging. the great thing is the loyalty of the members they stopped by and came to the clubs when they reopened the uk, where i'm from now, is

reopening on monday. our members are coming back to the houses america, the same. europe is a bit slower asia is a bit slower you know, what we are seeing is a really big convincing bounce back >> you are described as being elite and exclusive, nick. of course, you are a members club you have a pretty long wait list of people wanting to get in and be a member. do you think that is a fair framing of things that's exclusive? >> no. we are inclusive we let anyone join our clubs we let anyone from anywhere join our clubs. it doesn't matter if you are a sold artist or unsold artist we love you in the house. >> in terms of the membership numbers, how many members are you? is there a limit when you are trying to keep that kind of

sense of differential in numbers of you trying to grow to >> what our members love most is opening in rome and paris and tel aviv and our members could not be more excited. what it does is create an interesting local membership which joins the global membership at soho house. >> in terms of the numbers, you watch our shows here we have been focused on retail traders over the last year in the ipo, you were able to offer stock to the 120,000 soho house members. was there interest in taking out the stock significant? >> incredible. it touched me. our members wanted to be part of the growth story of the house. it was a high percentage who took it up.

>> finally, the app member does it give you more than physical hotel style characteristics when you list? it is a bit of a dating app and social network as well >> yes we created a hybrid club global hybrid club you can go physically and continue your membership digitally. you can connect with members and join the conversation. you can watch incredible amount of content provided by our members. we see a growth of digital membership >> nick, congratulations on the listing. we look forward to the first trade on the floor today if different circumstances, you would have been there in person. congrats thanks for joining us. >> thank you very much see you soon >> brian, i'll send it back to you. >> thank you for bringing us that can i speculate that was the roof bar of the 180 house? not that i would know? >> i believe he said he was

coming from the oxfordshire farm house. to be honest, i'm not certain. >> i'm just wild speculation by the way,monday, my 50th birthday the uk opening up. it has to be a big day. >> they call it brian sullivan over there >> they should i would. better than b.s. day wilfred, i appreciate it >> my pleasure. >> thank you see you on closing bell. you have janet yellen on today that does it for "worldwide exchange." i'll see you in 12 hours "squawk" and the gang pick it up next vere datay until then, take care.

good morning dow futures are set to dip at the open, but as we have seen recently, what is happening early in the morning doesn't play out for the rest of the session. we will see. we are awaiting day two of testimony from chairman jay powell and key economic data as well and ark invest cathie wood agrees with jay powell that the surge in prices are temporary. what she says about the inflation play. important warning for chevy bolt owners. gm says don't charge it unattended don't park it inside because it could catch fire it's thursday, july 15th, 2021 "squawk box" begins right now.