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numbers and tells what's could derail the industry's recovery and then blend making its wall street debut company, some sectors that have been on fire the founder will tell us what's next for his company and shares his unique view of the consumer economy. >> and peak commodity inflation. the one stock investors should av avoid. we'll talk to our guest nest let's begin with a quick check on the markets which are now at fresh session lows. dow down 165 points or half a percent. if you're wondering why even after the strong retail sales report a softer consumer sentiment read the nasdaq is catching up down 0.4% as well inflation is highest level since 2008 >> americans are spending, that's the tension here today.

retail sales coming in stronger than expected. the spending was broad across most categories but there are questions about how the delta variant will impact the sector the former chairman and ceo of macy's is founder and ceo of tjl advisers, a retail consulting firm he also sits on the board of procter & gamble terry, you have quite a few hustles and side hustles going on you know this economy, you know the retail sector. tell us about retail sales and sentiment, worry about inflation perhaps. which is going to win, that fear versus greed we talked about in the economy. >> thanks, eamon first of all, you've positioned this properly because there is that tension the consumer has plenty of spending power, number one number two there is tremendous pent-up demand, of course, particularly on the apparel side

which hasn't been required for over a year. apparel is an event driven activity if these events happen which we were counting on for the fall season including back to school and concerts and the like, that's really good news for apparel. to address your subject on inflation, frankly apparel inflation has been nonexistent for a decade so this is not a big concern for apparel retailers. it's welcome to have modest, and i mean 5%, frankly, would be modest when it comes to apparel retail you're talking about a few dollars going up in price. on a broader scale, yes. i would agree it does create tension but it does not create that in the apparel market >> we saw the economy turned on its head, everybody shopping on amazon, packages delivered to the front door you're talking about shopping as an event i am related to a number of

people who believe that with a passion that shopping is something that you have to experience you go together with your friends, your family there's got to be that pent-up demand and the other piece of pent-up demand i think we would be looking forward to is back to school in my house four kids who will be going back to school, all of them full time everything is too small. all the back pac packs are out f date we're going to need to buy everything in my house that has to be another driver of demand, right? >> you are a petri dish of what's going on in broad consumer research product that i've looked into these kids are in different sizes than they were a year ago. they may have bought product from the waist up but not from the waist down all these demands and reasons for demand i believe will drive back-to-school under all

circumstances. a massive change in how we feel about this delta variant and the exposure we're worried about does change everything but i'm not counting on that i'm counting on some -- we're going to see impact from that. overall i believe this will be the singest largest back-to-school performance since we've been recording this information. >> wow what drives that, terry, it's still the end of the stimulus payments, is it the strong labor market what about the child tax credit payments >> it's all these things, kelly, and everything eamon described to his personal family there's this pent-up demand. the availability of cash to spend partly because of the reasons you've just described but the savings rate is, as we all know, extraordinarily high and consumers are ready to part with that for the right reasons. college kids included, are those

reasons. >> what about wages? what's your advice trying to bring workers back, trying to hire new people? the wage issue is front of mind for all of them. front of mind for workers coming back do you say try to hole the line on wages and keep that cost as low as you can or, you know what, pump it up and bring in the best people? >> the good news is that many retailers have been gradually increasing wages what was never sustainable if they were going to go from $18 to $15 overnight but they have been gradually addressing this fact there is a need by the consumer there's going to be a regulatory push they have softeneded that large blow, at least the large retailers have they will have to face this fact and be competitive on wages. they may have fewer employees

but will have to be competitive on wages it's a lot more option that is people have to work virtually if they're not working in an in-store environment. >> higher wages, pent-up demand, the biggest back-to-school season of all time terr terry, thanks for joining us solar stocks are getting crushed. the etf down most people agree the sector will get bigger in the future. kristina partsinevelos is looking at one threat to the solar industry's main benefit, the environmental friendliness, kristina >> the sector could get bigger because the biden administration announced they will provide instant permits for solar applications speed up things and lower costs. with the 26% federal tax credit on home solar installations, grid electricity costs climbing over 2% a year and an administration pushing for green energy and more efficient solar panels available around the country, it's no wonder

americans are rushing to update their solar panels especially before all the federal solar tax credits disappear in 2024. there's a dark side to the industry, the waste, exemplified in this screen so research from harvard business review shows the sheer volume of discarded panels will soon pose a massive risk to the environment and could potentially increase the cost of solar. currently it costs about $20 to $30 to recycle one panel sending that same panel to a landfill would cost $1 to $2. but many are bullish on the sector and believe the technology will improve. >> i would push back on the context of solar waste the vast majority are recyclable and reusable and that's where the opportunity is we have capacity to manage that now. >> but the united states has no solar recycling mandate.

only one u.s. company, first solar, has in-house recycling capabilities and recovering the most valuable materials from solar like silver requires recycling solutions and specializization and there's hazardous waste. >> each solar panel contains about half an ounce of lead. if you landfill them, lead will leach out and poison our soil. >> and that's why the researchers argue the recycling costs could destroy the economics of solar even with subsidies. but there's no doubt the sector is definitely growing. >> you know, it's fascinating, that's why we are doing what we're doing next week. next week "power lunch" will bring you a special report about esg. we're going to examine all the facets of environmental, social governance, the staggering amount of money, the calls to regulate it and, to kristina's point, does it actually improve the environment, thursday, july

22nd tune in. but coming up today shares of fintech blend spiking on their first day of trading the founder shares his take on the consumer economy and later the ceo of invitation homes tells "power lunch" how he's managing climate risk and why he's making a massive investment in a climate technology fund. as we head to break a lock at some stocks hitting new 52-week highs. icy hot. ice works fast. heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy, so you can rise from pain.

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welcome back take a look at shares of blend labs the fintech is rising at 11.5% the 9-year-old lending startup many of the top financial firms used to power their interfaces and joining us is the founder and head of blend. congratulations and what are your plans for this capital? >> there's still so much of the industry that needs to be powered by data and powered by technology we're going to continue to invest in our customers, continue to invest in our product and make sure they move the industry forward >> is it fair to say blend is a b btob product >> yeah, or a mortgage or a personal loan. it would be through your

existing bank. it's entirely b2b product. >> you're seeing auto sales, mortgages, you're seeing these sectors that have been so hot. how do you see those playing out in the future? are we going to see a cooldown what does the technology tell you guys >> i think certainly we expect to see interest rates have been good refinance activity really good, but i think there's this larger digitization tail wind where financial services and other industries are becoming more to serve the consumer >> is it fair to say finteches like yours are helping smaller banks compete with the small guys >> we're helping accelerate the industry transformation towards modern, digital and a lot of the finteches, the home builders, everyone across the spectrum can use this technology and accelerate the things they are

doing. levels that to be used by all these players. >> another way of saying we work with the big guys, too wells fargo was name as one such customer why don't people have this i imagine they're committed to paying whatever you need them to pay going forward. >> some of the complexities of underwriting these difficult and highly regulated products make it so that a platform so they can do this, give them the flexibility to make it theirs and their brand and their logo and work flow and underwriting criteria, it takes away the need to build everything from scratch as opposed to a must build everything myself. you can build with blend in this case >> nima, i'm told you worked your way through stanford in part by playing poker, and like the only guy who ever made money

playing poker and made enough to pay your living expenses what is the risk for you guys going forward? what's the stuff that worries you next >> i think one of the things, we went public today, risk of being distracted, we are now public and our ticker is trading and all these things that can be short-term distractions from our longer term. we're a very long-term oriented company. our first principles are creating long-term value for the industry i don't want to lose sight of that orientation we have as we go forward the there are other short-term risks, interest rates, the economy, so many things. really that's the ultimate risk. this digitization tail wind, the modernization of banking is happening. >> and you want to fay focused on the long-term goals thanks for joining us today. >> thank you >> and coming up, one small piece of technology causing some big problems with unemployment insurance. the culprit emv chips or the

lack thereof why one security flaw could make those out of work vulnerable to fraud. plus, further ahead our sights on the next tech frontier. we'll take a look at that platform when "power lunch" returns after this

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i'm kristina partsinevelos, and here is your cnbc news update this hour pfizer and biontech have accepted the approval of covid vaccine. pfizer will submit an application for 12 to 15-year-old when is it has enough safety data a new study suggests half of all people hospitalized with covid end up developing a complication british researchers looked at data on 70% patients and they were spread evenly among all age groups the most common were those

affecting the kidneys and respiratory system and in georgia a key interstate remains closed after a truck slammed into an overpass shifting it more than six feet that overpass that you're seeing has been demolished. interstate 16 connects much of georgia to its coastlines. officials don't expect to reopen the highway until next week. >> terrifying. it's one to get stuck but to move it six feet a check on the markets which hit session lows, the dow down 160 so we're hovering around there, s&p and nasdaq seeing some kind of similar moves to the down side. >> time now for power movers didi shares tanking after chinese regulators performed an on site investigation of the ride hailing service now down 14% in its ipo. >> just one hit after another. tencent music is down from

overweight they're also citing new chinese restrictions >> netflix lower despite a bullish call as content increases. >> and during the pandemic a wave of unemployment made the benefits a prime target for fraud. improper payments amounted to $39 billion nationwide the bulk of the fraud involved identity theft but more than 100,000 recipients nationwide reported a different kind of fraud. transaction fraud where criminals steal the unemployment insurance from their accounts. a cnbc investigation reveals that a cost saving technology fueled this type of theft. leslie picker reports. ♪ >> reporter: when schools and venues shut down during the pandemic performer and part time music teacher found himself out

of work. >> i had to go on unemployment insurance. >> reporter: they were a life line until october when he discover all but a few dollars were stolen. >> my entire account was cleared out. it put me in a difficult situation. >> reporter: without those funds he became temporarily homeless living in his car for weeks. >> to sleep i would lay against that side of the car and lay my legs over the center console >> reporter: he and others received their state benefits through debit cards like these, but they lacked chips, a common security barrier against fraud still, 45 states plus d.c. use debit cards mostly without chips although many also give recipients a direct deposit. california and nevada saw an outsized share of stolen benefits because they had a greater reliance on chipless debit cards. >> a card without a chip is really easy to copy. >> reporter: criminals can take the duplicate card to an atm for cash such as ibm's charles

henderson. >> it's a matter of picking up a reader writer and duplicating it just like a photocopy. >> reporter: and i would presume it would be impossible to replicate a card with an actual chip on it >> it is extremely expensive and cost prohibitive for criminals to manufacture a card with a chip in it >> reporter: a big reason the cards had a lower level of security in the first place comes down to cost california hired bank of america years ago to distribute unemployment insurance on its behalf their contract showed the state only requested cards with magnetic stripes not chips california recently extended its contract with bofa though the bank tells cnbc it would like to exit this business as soon as possible because the bank says it's lost hundreds of millions in dollars in 2020 alone due to transaction fraud in state benefits >> i was shocked i couldn't believe it was happening to me. >> reporter: single mom vanessa experienced this firsthand and

blames the bank. >> i had to break my son's piggy bank to have my son tell me he know that is i'm stressing, that i'm struggling, that was the heartbreaking moment >> reporter: rivera along with fellow single mom and moon are part after class-action lawsuit against bank of america alleging the firm failed to fully investigate their fraud claims and quickly credit their accounts when the funds were stolen together they say they lost more than $10,000 >> i developed depression, anx anxiety. >> reporter: this woman was at the grocery store when she discovered the missing fund. >> i was sobbing i didn't know what to do because that was our life at that moment and it was a really scary moment >> reporter: bofa said from october 2020 through march 2021 about 255,000 fraud claims were filed of which the firm approved repayments to about half in a statement to cnbc they said their number one goal has always been to ensure legitimate recipients could access their

benefits >> it was exhausting >> reporter: bank of america gave moon, cool and rivera credit for their missing ing f you, but their lives were upended. >> this is people's lives you're messing with my life you're messing with this is his life, her life. i feel very punched in the gut >> reporter: amid our questions, bank of america and the state of california told cnbc they are in the process of transitioning to chip-based cards they would add a direct deposit option kansas, maryland and nevada in recent months. we called other banks that provide these benefits including u.s. bank, comerica and key bank only key bank responded, declining to provide any further commentary on fraud incidents due to ongoing investigations. kelly? >> quite some stuff. thank you very much, leslie picker ahead, covid-19 cases are climbing across the u.s. los angeles is once again

requiring masks indoors regardless of whether you're vaccinated the latest on the delta variant next plus, commodity inflation, is it peaking? why one analyst is changing his tune on industrial stocks. and we'll speak to the ceo of betting big on climate technology all when "power lunch" ruretns now geico could save you hundreds on car insurance and a whole lot more? cool. so what are you waiting for? mckayla maroney to get your frisbee off the roof? i'll get it. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ♪ ♪ whoa. here you go. (in unison) thank you mckayla! dude, get it. i'm not getting it, you get it. you threw it. it's your frisbee. geico. switch today and see all the ways you could save.

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welcome back, everybody. a down week for oil ending on an up note. let's go to pippa stevens at the commodities desk what's going on? eamon, oil reversing early losses to finish the day higher but not enough to push crude into positive territory for the week wti posting its worst week since april and third straight week of losses brent down tore three straight weeks as well for the first time in more than a year. a lack of clarity on the reported opec deal as well as a jump in covid cases waeing on prices wti finishes with a gain at $71.79 brent crude advancing 0.1 to $73.57 energy stocks down about 2% and the move pushes the group into correction territory and since it's friday we have to get a check on gas prices.

the national average will set you back $3.16 that's up almost a dollar in the past year. >> yeah, it's not fun. it is a pricey trip to fill up these days pippa, thank you very much >> it is driving season. another day, another strong economic number. still the ten-year yield rick santelli, what's going on over there >> reporter: you know, eamon, it's so fascinating. if you look at retail sales for june, we were up 0.6 on a headline, much better than expected we knew autos would be a drag, because we don't have enough the number more than doubled up 1.3. and university of michigan, look at this chart, one year inflation outlook jumped, the highest in 13 years. now, granted michigan was on the weakside in terms of the confidence number, go to the interday charts and what you see is that right at 10:00 eastern

we started to lose the horsepower from retail sales and that couldn't save it. why? it seems from a global standpoint there's not enough horsepower to create enough selling and push rates up. inside day today no momentum in either direction. finally the dollar index hovering at some of the best levels since early april and it is up on the week despite rates being down kelly, back to you >> another paradox, rick thank you. now some scary headlines as covid cases spike due to the delta variant. average daily new infections up by two-thirds compared to the previous week. los angeles is putting its indoor mask mandate back into place. to meg tirrell >> reporter: daily case numbers up to more than 26,000 now as you said that's up 70%. dr. ghali was on "squawk box"

mentioning people aren't even getting tested so those numbers may be major undercounts and increases of hospital admissions and deaths up to 211 know. the cdc director walensky saying there are clear trends in the data here is what she said. >> there is a clear message that is coming through. this is becoming a pandemic of the unvaccinated we are seeing outbreaks of cases in parts of the country that have low vaccination coverage because unvaccinated people are at risk. >> you can see in the two grafts there the red areas are the ones seeing high transmission, and more and more counties are getting added to that. 10% more in the last week alone. and they do correspond with the areas of the lowe est vaccinati rates. there is one interesting piece

of news. states that are hardest hit by the pandemic right now that have some of the highest infection rates are seeing the highest increases in people initiating vaccinations, states from utah, nevada, arkansas, california, florida and missouri they are all adding the highest number per capita of people getting their shots. there's a sign concerns about delta are driving people to get vaccinated >> meg, it's eamon we're seeing a split screen pandemic one thing with the breakthrough cases but overall an entirely different picture from where we were last year and then this rampaging pandemic and the unvaccinated population and you wonder what do health care authorities need to do to tamp that down? >> yeah, you hit the nail on the head it's a tale of two different countries, the vaccinated and the unvaccinated country and the

problem is in the pockets where there are a lot of unvaccinated people you will see health care systems get overwhelmed. you already heard about some areas in the south that ran out of ventilators i was speaking with the health secretary from arkansas earlier this week who said he's not so worried about capacity in the hospital systems they haven't started putting off elective procedures but is worried about being able to staff the beds in their surge capacity with the low vaccination rates in some of those states we could see that start to happen >> meg, thanks so much st take a look at the dow let's talk about the delta variant and the risk to the market ron insana, senior analyst and commentator and senior adviser to schroeder's north america is that the concern or the concern it's a place holder for gamma variant, if this is still

mutating and what that could do to the economy >> i think all of the above, eamon. it gives a new definition to so-called delta hedging which is typically more financially oriented the market is getting weaker that we could see a slower economy if certain regions of the country were forced to radically change their behavior whether it's in los angeles county,missouri, arkansas, what have you nevada even which is seeing a surge. it could slow the economy and we're seeing that internationally. getting synchronized global economic growth, which is what was hoped for earlier in the year may become a little more difficult. i know my old friend art mentioned this as well more and more credence it's a wait-and-see situation, the market's nervous about it. a day like today is a regular day in market history.

this is just a little nervous. >> inflation you are an inflation is transitory guy are you comfortable with that. it's a small move, but is there a little worry >> once everybody globs on to a concept they'll wait before letting go lumber has gone from $1,670 down to $570 or so today. it's down and some of the price pressures are starting to come off so the data we've been looking at over the last several weeks and months are rear-view mirror statistics. a slight upturn to the bond market measure i do think some of the data suggests and supports the fed's notion that inflation is

transitory and some of the big issues around supply chain disruptions and the lack of availability of workers and parts when we start to see the economy more fully engaged >> he's basically saying the economic indicators are strong, jobless claims are at lows, even things like consumer confidence. the metals gauges and data on this today for the most part the industrial metals are holding up pretty well. we talked about how junk bond yields are below the inflation rate if bond yields are being pushed lower from this liquidity swamp by the fed, then his point is this is the opposite of the taper tantrum, you're running policy too loose and not tight

enough >> we've heard this from our own folks, jim cramer and others have talked about. when you see equity prices go up, pension fund managers who have responsibility to match their books have to buy bonds. tier one to offset the increase, foreign buyers and those looking for a positive yield from their perspective have been as well. with interest rates on a real basis we have very, very easy monetary policy. i doan n't think it's the bogey. the reflation trade is still on. >> ron, let me ask you about

meme stocks. you've suggested meme stocks are correcting themselves and that's an encouraging sign for everything going on right now. i want to throw an idea. is it possible meme stocks are not correcting but maybe about to be rotating into something else it's such a new phenomenon we know what their favorites have been over the last six months or so, but we don't know what they're going to do next. is it possible they could jump on other names and those names could go wild in the back half of the year? >> oh, sure, absolutely. if you look at the internet bubble as we got into late 1998 p and 1999, we got into things as crazy as the globe.com that opened 600% higher and -- >> i don't even remember what they did for a living? >> neither do i, quite frankly

there was a fish meal and bone meal company to put dot-com after its name and went para parabolic. you get this day trading frenzy fr from time to time. yes, they may very well rotate into something else. they may find some other things to play with their stymies and do that type of thing. it's a phenomenon for now. it usually ends badly and i'm sure something else will pop up in the near term that will catch people's attention and carry this out as they say the market can be irrational longer than we can be solvent. >> ron, so good to talk to you on a friday. >> you as well thanks commodities and industrial stocks climbing as inflation risks spiked across the economy. have prices peaked bank of america seems to think so they are down grading dow chemical the analyst behind the call joins us to explain next

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commodities have seen some pretty volatile hikes but have prices peaked? our next guest sees signs at the top as a result he downgraded dow chemical to sell the stock down 7s today. analyst at bank of america securities, steven, you really put your finger on the debate. what do you see going on with metal prices >> well, we think particularly the key commodities we're focused on is the largest chemical commodity we think pricing is at a peak. it's $1 a pound now. a year ago it was $50 cents a pound. we think that's been driven by supply shocks. a whole bunch of weather events that caused the contraction in supply and deman has been strong

but now inventory levels that are back to normal and on the high side. we think that prices have reached a peak and will start to fall back particularly because the price outside of the u.s. is significantly lower. and that seems unsustainable to us >> i apologize for saying metals as you're talking about, do they derive from crude oil and as we're thinking through this we have seen crude oil prices roll over but other prices are holding up pretty well so where do we get the prices you're focused on? >> well, what we look at are derivatives of oil it is either starting with crude oil or natural gas, starting with ethane or propane and products that are commodities or specialties and they run the

gamut. some of these commodity chemicals are at prices that we think are stainable and others are unsustainable. it's a mix it depends on the end market, is there sufficient demand to warrant that tightness as supplies start to get back to normal or even inflated we think there's risk to this inflation reversing into a deflation >> steve, it's eamon javers here help me to understand this analysis we're talking pricing power for some of these guys but i wonder what the inflationary environment we're heading into we saw janet yellen saying it could be several more months of relatively high inflation. doesn't that give some of the guys increased pricing power because they assume prices will go up as they deal with inflation, or is that not how it

works? >> i think that's a very realistic situation for many of the chemicals we work with let's just say a gallon of paint. that gallon of paint is just a formulation of a bunch of different chemicals and so those producers of the paint can push that price you talk about polye th ena lo, they are buying it to make packages and pricing from around the world. and if they can get the product cheap earp from asia, they can bring it in. that's where we really see the risk is that domestic price we're seeing right now in the u.s. is sustainable when the price outside of the u.s. is significantly less >> so the savvy buyers can put the clamps on the pricing power of some of these guys even in the inflationary environment

i got it >> i think so. >> thanks for being here really appreciate it up next, buying and selling homes based on climate risk. the ceo of invitation homes about that firm's unique home rental strategy. "power lunch" coming right back. ugh, these balls are moist. or is that the damp weight of self-awareness you now hold in your hands? yeah (laugh) keep your downstairs dry with gold bond body powder.

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stocking continue to lose steam into the close, which is only about an hour away. about 0.75%, a 0.5% declines in the nasdaq and s&p 500 the largest single-family rental reit today is announcing a major investment in the tech fund, the goal to move real estate toward cleaner energy diana olick has more >> reporter: the ceo told me investing through the fifth wall fund is not only for the planet, but for the company's bottom line. >> without a doubt we've got to find ways to have properties that can be more sustainable

over the long haul whether that's how we use, you know, the energy from the sun, to how we think about our own water usage in being smart around resickling, things like that if we can put things in the home that will drive down utility costs over time and lend itself to a better overall experience for our resident, we'll get a longer duration from the resident with a higher propensity to renew. thus, a win for both parties. >> reporter: it covers raw materials, heat, cooling, water, waste, a new focus on air filtration, and both resilience and less reliance. >> in the ways you can be less -- need to be on the grid over time. so, i think, being proactive,

doing the right levels of research and investing in the right products have been paramount in the way we have approached or business over the last ten years. >> reporter: tanner said they're also paying much more attention to the growing climate risks to the 80 thousand-plus homes they already own and those they could potentially buy. fire, flood, drought, real estate has always been about location, and climate is changing all of that thank you, diana up next, a master class in masterclass. online learning with top celebrities and experts. we'll take a look at the company and their ongoing series, the next frontier, afterhi ts. hey, dad! hey, son! no dad, it's a video call. you got to move the phone in front of you

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teach. this year, vcs will versus invested in the online education space. kajabi allows anyone to build and build, john connelly says the pandemic has accelerated this industry. >> if you look at, you know, what consumers are interested in and what they're willing to spend on, learning is toward the top of the list. people want to invest in themselves, find great content and find things to discover and kajabi is at the heart of that. mighty networks is another network, enibles creators to share and community indicate with their community, and yoga

teachers, and -- while the number running courses online more than doubled. maven, which helps bring together groups to teach realtime programs, so all of these companies and the investors backing them are betting that the pandemic has sparked a permanent shift in behavior, guys. >> julia, so many famous and amazing people on masterclass. i'm always tempted to click on it viv ever done one of those classes? >> you know, i haven't done masterclass, but i'm exploring all these other classes. if you had a favorite yoga teacher pre-pandemic or if you wanted to take a spanish class, there might be more oopses for that are not in those celebrity classes. what's crucial about these platforms, there's really an opportunity to connect both with your teacher one on one, and

well your classmates masterclass is impressive, but you won't be messaging one on one with your teacher. >> i'm trying to get eamon to homeschool masterclass, it sounds fun. >> i'm exhausted now thanks for having me here. i'm going to send the weekend tweet early. "closing bell" starts now. well deserved eamon. thank you both stocks under pressure here, and near session lows. the major averages pacing for weekly declines with the russell 2000 small caps down 4% since monday's opening energy th