financials. >> great having you on the program. >> raetzon i like it this is by those at 2.5% dividend >> morgan stanley. what i said before. >> okay, joe. >> market access. >> international game technology thank you for watching "the exchange" is now. hi, everybody. it's an ugly day in the marjts the dow tumbling 800 now close to 1,000 points. we're at sessions lows now it's the worst day of the year for the major averages the 10-year yield is dropping well below 2.1%. bitcoin is sinking toward 30,000 energy is plunging the reopening trade is shut down with names like netflix and pell ton. it's been a fast-moving average. we have full coverage of the sell-off and asking what is

going on here all hour long. we begin with the latest data play at 1:00 p.m. eastern time dom khu is here to kick things off. >> we're roughly marginally off the worst lows of the session so far. we were down around 900 points a few moments ago. roughly down 850 for the dow the underperformer on the day is the s&p 500. and the nasdaq composite, the outperformer down 1.5% the last trade is 14,221 i'll point out if the moves in the dow to this level in the downside hold, it will be the worst day for the day so far in 2021 also, you mention yields that interest rate picture continues to show no fear of inflation for now and no real fear for growth. the reason why, 1.19% is the last trade there you have to go back to february probably around february 12th for the same level of yields that we saw. so, again, that inflation fear rolling over along with yields

on 10 year u.s. government treasury bonds if you take a look the overall picture for the other part that is getting some of the real weight of the market put on him, it's the energy trade. crude oil futures down 7% now. the energy sectors spider ticker xle is down 4% exxonmobil, faang and are down markedly on the day. the fuel consumption fears playing into that along with opec and the partner countries not exactly saying, you know, we'll keep the production cuts in place it plays out one more place to watch, kelly, check out what is happening with the reopening stocks united, norwegian, caterpillar is down, as well it's going to be a big move in terms of those particular trades so i'm watching what is happening with those. >> i appreciate it. >> oh, look. we'll break up where dom left off on the energy space in particular we want it today there is so much going on. let's draft -- take a look once

again. what is going on in the sector space? how much of the sell-off is over fears of a growth slowdown and how much is capitulation of the inflation trade. energy, like dom said, the worst performing sector today down more than 4% crude is down more than 7% it comes after the opec plus decision to boost output what do lower energy prices mean less inflation the 10 year yield is sinking, as well what do lower yields mean? they put pressure on the banks what does it do? it's weighing heavily on the dow. names like goldman and jpmorgan, with the $352 price. remember the dow is a price weighted index it's why the dow is underperforming so much today. that along with boeing with less inflation, a big piece of the puzzle today. if so, isn't that a good thing joining me now to discuss president james of investment research and jim bianco, president of bianco research great to have you here i'll start with you, barry

what is going on with inflation now with growth and mat,s, do you think? >> i think, you know, when we look at inflation, we've seen the roll over of any number of materials, you know, from lumber to gold and now oil. so i think that is part of what is, you know, in the equation. we look at the, of course, the interest rates and, you know, bond investors are saying we're not worried about it the weird thing is now we have real yields. it doesn't tend to stay there for that long. one or the other is going to be making the change. >> all right jim, which do you think is going to be making the big change from here on out? >> yeah. i fear it's going to be the stock market i got a little bit of a different take if you look at core inflation levels, you can take out lumber and energy you can take out all the commodities. inflation is still as high as the overall headline rates, as well, too. yeah the reopening traits like

used cars is going down but shelter inflaix is going up. we have inflation that is probably going to stay why is the bond market ignoring it it's about growth. you look at the ratio of a growth stocks and the reopening stocks and the s&p, it tracks interest rates the reopening stocks have been struggling for the last couple of months and rates have been falling. it's about a fear that the economy is going to slow and if you want to narrow it down, it's a fear the delta variant is going to lead to more lockdowns. that's got everybody worried earlier today dr. fauci was out and refused to answer the question if there's more lockdowns coming that's not what the market wanted to hear. >> jim, the real question investors need to grapple with whether they think more lockdowns are coming or not. don't we sort of know the answer to that? we've seen less and less of a response with a wave new york city saying it's not going to indoor mask mandates. pu

public schools no. shouldn't we look at the information and say any kind of shutdown risk is way lower now than it would have been in the past >> yes and los angeles did go back to masks and case count, while low, have been doubling every seven days if that keeps up for another two or three weeks, we might have a different narrative by the end of the month when it comes to shutdowns. we'll have to see how it goes. right now i think the market is worried that growth is stalling badly. if you need a story for why it's stalling, i think it's worried that the delta variant is going to lead to some kind of a restriction in economic activity. >> all right let me ask you whether you would fade or follow this move in other words, would you be picking up the stocks that are selling off because of these concerns do you think you should follow the lead of the markets here and say you have to move to the sidelines on some of these more sensitive names until we have better clarity on the outcome. >> well, you know, i broke a tooth this weekend i think the tooth fairy is not

coming to visit. i think she was busy putting money in people's stock portfolios and, you know, as i look at the situation, the key ingredients behind our delivering things have been the fed support, the stimulus from washington, and the strong economic growth as pointed out, i like to look at the, you know, the surprises that come in on the economic reports. there aren't any positive surprises. we are seeing that slow down and each of those other areas have some warning signs so i would say expect some more volatility yes, today is probably overdone and we'll get a bounce tomorrow but use this time to realign your portfolio and we like some stocks that are, you know, covid favorites like asml and paypal and the like those types of companies, we think, in the low interest rate environment will be doing real well and they've got the staying power to hold up and go forward regardless of what we're seeing

overall in the market. >> yep you like, also, home builder and lgi. let me ask you, jim, what do you think investors should do here you see a more stag flags view of things. how should such -- it seemed like the opposite of the way the market typically behaved it tends to behave in a low inflation, growth is on or off kind of, you know, storyline what you're describing would be persistence inflation and lower -- slower growth. >> yeah. let's remember in a pandemic reopening, no one has a guidebook for this we have no idea how it's supposed to unfold so we're all kind of feeling around in the dark if we're going to have a combination of sticky inflation because of supply chain concerns or demand concerns because we've mailed a lot of people money and they're spending it now. on top of concerns of more lockdowns and slow down in the economy. yeah it's not a good precipitation for the market

i think it'll continue to struggle i'm not calling for a bear market or anything significant but you might see heightened volatility and a shoppy sideways side market and interest rates continue to be grinding lower and keeping everybody a little bit at edge what is happening next. >> you're saying a stag flags. that's the oddest thing about this if inflation will be persistent, why is the bond market completely shrugging that off? >> because the fed wanted cri -- trillion dollars a year. we've also got low levels of stagnation we're talking about 2 or 3% inflation. not talking about 5, 6, or 7 like i said, you can have the playbook for whatever, you know, everybody that remembers anything that happened before 2019 in markets, that might not be of any good when it comes to a pandemic reopening it's unlike we've seen before.

>> it's a decade long playbook we need to rewrite thank you so much. we have growing uncertainty around the health of the economy as the delta variant soaks investor fears you combine with the inflation head winds, what does it mean for the recovery our gdp expectations steve liesman is here with the details on the latest update steve? >> reporter: kelly, thank you. the cnbc rapid update shows a modest eruption of growth. overall the forecast for the strong gdp in the quarters ahead and declining inflation. wall street investors are not embracing the sell-off in stocks or the economic pessimism you might see if you look at the bonds market now and the yields there. the average of 14 economists we surveyed shows growth peaking in the second quarter and just above 9% down from the 10% forecast in the beginning of the quarter inflation is eating a piece of that away. at least the growth is

duetch said it's the fastest turn around from a recession that we've had since 1949. gdp gradually seems declining but the numbers are still above trend well into next year. rsm said we expect american households flush with cash and rising wages to steam through rising prices on the back of supply that will soon begin to ease inflation is forecasted at 5.7% at the second quarter. it's massive the highest level since 1990 and gradually comes down and end up at 2.2%. that is much lower but still 7/10th higher than the average we've seen for the pc inflation followed by the fed. inflation is high. it's not forecast to force the fed's policy the unknown is how much impact the delta variant will have on u.s. growth. especially as it may come through global kmiblg channels just before i came on, kelly, i was looking at the fed funds

features it looks it is pushed out into december of 2022 the markets take when the first rate hike is fully priced in. >> in other words there's a wide range of opinion about where the economy is heading at the back half i think one of the disputes we see is over people who say we're at peak growth and others who say it doesn't matter because we're still growing. and, you know, when you listen to the discussions that we had with jim who says, look, the prevailing playbook of the past decade may not apply now the kind of risk on and risk off markets mind set we've been in time and time again. i don't know if the data tells you that, you know, it might be different this time in terms of what gdp and inflation are both expected to do here. >> i think those are fair points the way i put it in context is the conventional wisdom and the con sen tus we showed you shows that growth is going to come down it was always thought to be second quarter was going to be the peak it's going to be strong relative to normally where it would be.

it's going to remain above 2% for about a year inflation is high but it's coming down. it's the forecast as bottle necks ease what is not known? what is not conventional the take on the delta variant is the only thing i can think of, it's prompting a risk off trade. whether or not you want to play that game and decide, hey, it is indeed time to head for the hills. you can talk to doctors or the bond market and it's a little unclear what each is saying about what it means. it was striking me that right now it's the biggest unknown out there and the proximate cause for the valley in the bond market certainly they are ignoring the inflation. >> one final question, steve i'm curious, you know, either for your own feel based on the conversations you've had or people asked outright, what kind of economic information do you think the 10-year yield is giving us at 1.2%? as we heard, there's a huge buyer of treasuries is the fed no question more than half of the new issue chance which is a small amount of the total supply

but still the yields move up-and-down. you know, independent of the pace of fed purchases. i guess my question is, what does the 10-year below 1.2% tell you? >> well, you know, first of all, i have sympathy with the idea the fed is a big buyer your point is exactly right. the fed is a constant buyer. meanwhile yields go up-and-down. yields have no problem going from below 1% to 1.6% and everybody who was concerned about inflation, oh, that's the inflation scare out there. that came back down and now the claim by some of the safebooks is you're not getting a true signal because the fed pressures well the fed purchases are high but constant and they're also believed to have come down in the futures. i think this is a head for the hills thing. i don't know if i necessarily see an economic signal in there. sometimes the market, the bond market gets it right and sometimes gets it wrong. it's not a perfect indicator. >> yeah. >> i would say that i would watch it and wait to see if even the economic forecast comes down or the bonds market writes itself again and starts planning

on growth again. >> thank you our steve liesman here to round everything up. and breaking news on robin hood and details it shows prepares to go public. candidate raoni with the story >> reporter: another unusual move in robin hood's ipo process. the trading start-up announcing a live stream portion of the road show. specifically for retail investors. these are normally closed sessions more for constitutional investors. a presentation on saturday from the ceo and cofounder and some other executives at robinhood followed by a live q & a they'll answer questions submitted by the public. they're reserving, remember, as much as a third of ipo shares for the own customers. those who are trading on robinhood, though, shares of the ticker hood are available to reserve on the app today there's other ipos on there, as well robinhood is officially kicking off the road show today. we have the amended s 1 looking at roughly $35 million

evaluation on the high end most of the road show has been virtual. we're expecting that listing on the nasdaq next thursday kelly, back to you. >> so many questions what are people in the crypto world saying about the connection between the sell-off in that space and sell-off in equities more broadly? >> so interesting. well, krip tow specifically but to robinhood, for a second on the slow down in trading they mentioned some of the slow down in retail trading activity and expect to see slower trading volumes, including crypto currency in the third quarter. that does give you a little bit of color on what we've seen lately it seems to be trading much more high risk or venture capital risk on asset versus the hedge against inflation. we keep getting the numbers and cpi and anything showing more inflation doesn't seem to be helping bitcoin. it doesn't seem to have earned its pot as a hedge yet it's trading like a tech play. >> we're showing the dow and bitcoin and the price action is

so similar on a day like this. we'll see you again soon we appreciate it kate roony with fresh details. still ahead, we're monitoring the sell-off. we showed you the markets. crude is down nearly 8% now. an ugly day in commodities for copper, as well, look at that down 3% goldman's jeff curry said copper is the new gold. plus, will dropping rates hold up the home builders? those names are holding up about 1% in the sell-off today and as we head to break, take a look at tech the big names are also struggling netflix is the relative outperformer and briefly turned positive ahead of a key week for earnings back in a molt

welcome back we'll drill down on two corners of the kmod any space. oil quickly plunged from 12% from the high. it's near to $66 a barrel now. all of this after opec plus members over the weekend reached an agreement to increase production starting in august. you might say, all right, it's an oil-specific story. but take a look at copper. more of a growth gauge they call it the metal ph.d. it's down 12% from the recent

high so they've pretty much sold off in tandem. with me to discuss more is jeff curry. jeff, i appreciate you coming back on. so, first of all, tell us investors what you think is going on here >>well, it's definitely not opec the opec meeting concluded with a relatively positive bullish outcome. this is definitely the delta variant. you can see the airlines getting hit hard today and the fact that oil is getting hit harder than copper is an indication that is getting, like, transportation feels harder it can be impacted by lockdowns. one thing we want to emphasize here is every one of these markets are still in a deficit today. you know, the structure stories still very much impact this is the beginning of a multiyear bullish outlook. in terms of thinking about the delta variant itself, the key point is the level of demand remember commodities are different than financial markets. financial markets are impacted

by growth rates and commodities are impacted by the level of demand you need the level of demand above the level of supply so you draw inventories that creates a bullish market the question is can the demand level drop below the supply level? only lockdowns can do that at this point right now, it's unclear whether or not you get some substantial lockdowns i think the key point here is we're not returning to last year we have more a rolling diversified portfolio. the second point is even if it happens, what people are -- the four to six week experience. and then i think, you know, the point is policy is far more targeted today it's going to try to avoid creating big disruptive lockdowns. i think the other key point is that the vaccines have broken that linkage between hospitalizations and increases in infections. so, you know, the risk is there and i don't want to diminish it. again, we argue by these because

this is a multiyear story. >> and that's what i find interesting about the price action today we've been talking in the marketplace for at least four to six weeks now about the delta variant. none of this is a surprise it was obvious based on what happened in other countries that the same thing could happen in the u.s. if anything, we're catching up it should have been priced in. what are we pricing in today is it a capitulation or liquidation trade? like you said, we've known about the delta variant. we've understood the risks it poses. we're still all basically agreeing there's unlikely to be any serious lockdown activity in the u.s. why are markets all of a sudden today pricing in that outcome? >> well, i think it's because, you know, the line going around is, you know, it's a pandemic of the unvaccinated when you start to look at it in segments of the economy, you know, the different countries it's really hitting an isolated group. because the numbers in places like the uk are getting so large

there now is a realtistic concern it could create lockdowns. in terms of looking at israel, uk, scotland, these are some of the key places that the markets are focussed on today. i think just the sheer size of the numbers. >> fair enough in many ways these are global commodities. they could be as concerned or more concerned about lockdowns elsewhere than the u.s., per se. which markets are tightest and which are loosest? in other words where do you think prices should hold up relatively better than others? >> oil, oil, and more oil. the situation with oil here in peak travel season and, by the way, the word here in the uk is people are going to get in the planes and fly they haven't taken a vacation for a long time. in terms of looking at, you know, the demand above supply, the deficit. one in oil is very large and the opec meeting today, you know, it modestly improves the situation. but in no way does it solve the deficit. we estimate the deficit in june

was 2.3 million barrels per day. they have committed to adding 400,000 barrels per day in the month of august. as you can see, it doesn't come close to filling the gap but given the inability for 20% of opec to meet the kwa draft, the number will be something like 300,000 barrels per day. so 2.3 million barrel per day a gap, they'll fill 300,000 of it. we like oil. oil is the one here giving the pullback has the greatest upside. our target is $80 barrel we think the number is around $82 or 83. we think you can see spikes in the 85 or 90 range i want to emphasize, we have to get through the next several weeks and be sure we don't see significant lockdowns. >> two points to make sure i'm understanding correctly. oil is the kmod it -- kbhodty you think is best positioned because the market is that

undersupplied that any demand erosion situation is fundamental holds up the best and the worst performing today it's ones on elevation and the oh is, from what you're describing, we know markets and they can sort of take these and run with them. you basically would buy oil and any of the other commodities here you've been recommending on today's price action >> i actually if you want to hedge yourself, you know, from a potential of a lockdown, we like to call metals like copper and the other bulk commodities down. we call them cap x commodities meaning they're used toward investment think about oil as open ex you operate the economy with oil and invest in the economy with copper if we do have lockdowns, it's going to hit the commodities muchmore than it will. in fact, there's very little risk that the cap x commodities

like copper get hit. we would do the broad liquidation buying opportunity and with copper, we still stick with our $11,000 a ton target. the reason we like oil right now is just how far it sold off and given how large the deficit is and the risks this leads to real substantial lockdowns being pretty, i would say, still pretty small. >> yeah. i'm interested to see if this is the end of the trade that is kind of been coming to the forefront for the past month or two or the beginning of a more accelerated version of it. jeff, again, for explaining the fundamentals here and how they trade, i greetly -- greatly appreciate it. >> thank you coming up we'll continue to follow the markets with the dow down more than 800 and almost 900 points now the lows nearly down about 1,000 points we'll look at which names, in particular, are dragging us lower. just as retail is opening up, the delta variant could present a major risk

who can withstand a potential second, third, or fourth wave? we have have the names crypto trade is falling apart today. down nearly $1,000 with the industry facing a lot of regulatory changes we'll look at which is the sort of tail and which is the dog, so to speak, in krip tow in the markets. we're ckn montba ia me experience our advance standards safety technology on a full line of vehicles. at the lexus golden opportunity sales event. get 1.9% apr financing on the 2021 rx 350. experience amazing. (vo) introducing 48 square centimeters of earning on the 2021 rx 350. potential. flawlessly designed. undeniably versatile. unlimited 2% cash back. this is the card built for... ...real life. (dad) she's gonna be a drummer. (cashier) yeah she is. that's gonna get loud. (dad) right? (vo) the new wells fargo active cash visa credit card. unlimited 2% cash back on purchases.

that's real life ready. ♪ ♪ ♪ digital transformation has failed to take off. because it hasn't removed the endless mundane work we all hate. ♪ ♪ ♪ automation can solve that by taking on repetitive tasks for us. unleash your potential. uipath. reboot work. there's interest you accrue, and interests you pursue. plans for the long term, and plans for a long weekend. assets you allocate, and ones you hold tight. at thrivent, we believe money is a tool, not a goal. and with the right guidance, you can get the financial clarity you need, and live a life rich in meaning, and gratitude.

to learn more, text thrive to 444555, or visit thrivent.com. welcome back to "the

exchange." here is a check on markets the do u is down 927 points as 2.7%, again, is the worst performer today. boeing, financials, the energy key reasons there. the s&p down about 2%. nasdaq down 1. 5%. the official declaration from the national bureau of economic research, the nbr, are the ones who say when recessions begin and end just in the last 15 minutes or so officially declared that last april of 2020 was the end of the recession that began in february making it the shortest on record let's bring in mike. he's tracking all the action for us today keeping an 05 on the biggest movers what do you think is sparking the sudden sell-off? >> i don't know it's so much of a spark as much it was going to be ongoing economic incremental realization that markets were reacting to this growth scare globally and what is going on in the bond market made it tough to escape the other piece is some of the very largest stocks are outperforming today. the nasdaq they're not immune to it it seems if a little more

inclusive. getting a thorough downside flush actually as we said, you know, 3 or 4%. take a look at the banks index a lot of weakest areas today have been rolling over for awhile i think it's what i mean by the fact the markets have been grappling with the stuff for awhile the s&p banks this is a whole ceiling we got there and we've not given up all the year to date gains but shows you're not too far above those levels that we kind of broke to first in january. airlines are a more dramatic picture of something similar this here was vaccine approval that was just this kind of, okay, we can set some of the deepest pessimism aside. you're challenging the levels we got to after we got a little bit of repricing for the vaccine we're still 4 or 500,000 daily passengers short of 2019 levels in terms of tsa through point.

take a look at boeing, another exacerbated example of this, too. here you're going back and giving up most of that post vaccine ramp we got. of course, we got a lot other issues here. whether it's china or some of the product complications they've had. certainly seeing a little bit of a stretching to the downside in these areas that have already been underperformers. >> if we're doing a sort of, you know, an office pool what would you take for the close here >> i think what i'm seeing in terms of the real short term work is another probe to the downside i think a lot of people, i mean, this is coin flip stuff. a lot of people will be mindful of still in an uptrend at the 50-day average for the s&p around now maybe a couple of points below it and tuesday, as you might get a little bit of a snap back. it's the way i would play it but, you know, not with my own money, as we know. [ laughter ] >> mike, thank you very much

we'll see you again soon mike santoli now the cnbc news update here's what's happening. carried a trump flag into the senate chamber has been sentenced to eight months in jail the first to be charged with felony charge. what does the sentence mean for the hundreds still charged we'll break it down on the news tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern president biden is walking back his comment that facebook is killing people by not removing covid vaccine misinformation. >> facebook isn't killing people they're out there giving misinformation anyone listening to it is getting hurt by it it's killing people. it's bad information my hope is that facebook, instead of taking it personally something i'm saying facebook is killing people, that they would do something about the misinformation

the outrageous misinformation about the vaccine. that's what i mean. >> and britain's chief scientific advisor said that 60% of newly hospitalized covid patients had two shot of have a soox pen the cdc raising the warning to travelers to the uk to the highest level back to you. >> 60% of their newly hospitalized patients are fully vaccinated wow. >> it's surprising and yet that official said it's not surprising at least according to him. as we know, the vaccines aren't fully effective. it seems like a high number. >> are these small overall numbers -- you have to wonder the basis they're using it in a new hospitalizations or new hospitalizations still -- >> from what i understand new hospitalizations but it's representing a smaller portion of the larger population. >> at least for now. coming up, with the retailer report second quarter results raised guidance but down nearly

6% one analyst said the move in the stock is all you need to know about investor sentiment now he'll join us ahead.

♪ ♪ experience, hyper performance that takes you further. at the lexus golden opportunity sales event. get 0.9% apr financing on the all 2021 lexus hybrid models. experience amazing.

welcome back to "the exchange" retail is broadly lower today on concerns over the delta variant. it's down more than 6% in the past week. some of the names that have seen the biggest rallies so far this year are also now taking the biggest hits like macy's, levi, gap, and tapestry. nay si's is down nearly 5% today. watch tractor supply it is the key to investor sentiment. the big pandemic winner reported earnings today and raised full year guidance and the stock sliding down about 7 rpt joining me now is growth consumer analyst at openen heimer is it a good thing it is lower in shouldn't it be ascended? >> i think your opening is perfect. tractor supply -- action in supply tells us a lot about the

sentiment around consumer retail stocks and it's a tug of war. as you've been talk about and the against on cnbc has been talking about all the heightened concerns of the delta variant. it would mean is that, you know, some of the covid winners, like a tractor supply or home depot may have winning streaks which may be elongated there's probably proof of that but, you know, there's proof of that the extent of the pandemic exists what is happening today, i think correctly the market is saying the next major move is reopening. we've got some taste of that so the big covid wares like tractor supply and despite the results and, you know, delta -- are still moving forward at good results as the market starts to look toward more significant or complete reopening. >> basically if i were watching this and wanted to bet on, you

know, let's say a fourth wave of covid that sends the u.s. back into a version of the economic downturn we've experienced in the past, i should stocks like tractor supply if i think the reopening will continue, despite this that i would want to be a seller here is that right? >> that's correct. that's correct right. i think there's a nuance in there, as well even if it's extraordinarily -- at this point. or even if the economy goes into more of a lockdown type. i don't think you'll see the benefit in stocks like tractor supply and others, you know, because like the market is focussing on reopening but also another effective key ingredient here is the comparisons. you look at tractor supply and they've had a great report today. we're seeing a slow down in results we're starting to cycle past the difficult comparisons

there's difficult comparisons even if the pandemic or the effects of the pandemic can persist. >> right even a company like tractors it's going to be a long time before they in a normal environment. the only reason you're up 3% year on year and something like that and talking about increasing margins let's talk about the rest of the space and the names that are geared toward the pandemic trade. i don't know which you cover but i think of peloton and a name like lululemon we mentioned macy's. would you separate them out into the kind of shut down and reopening baskets at this point or do you think the retail sector is saying there won't be anymore shut downs you can only stock -- they still have difficult comps in some cases. >> i think it's mixed. my coverage is much more skewed toward, you know, companies for covid. i cover the at leisure names i think the companies are well positioned to capitalize on reopening. we've seen it.

it's fantastic i think that's reopening clothing retailers, i don't cover any of them. i would say generally speaking it's viewed within the retail space is reopening and the area concerned with and these are the names i've downgraded a lot over the past several months is housing and home depot and tractor supply we've been talking about. williams sonoma and best buy all the companies are well run companies. there will be an opportunity, in my mind, to buy the stocks once we get past the covid. right now we're in the period of the delta concerns we're in the period of coming out of the of covid and start to contend with the difficult comparisons as we cycle. >> last question because everyone is curious. what do you think is going on in the housing market is it starting to roll over? >> well, you know, i was hoping or it careful with my expertise.

i don't necessarily follow housing but i watch very closely all the retail that is tied to housing. and the housing and get into the two homes -- >> all right so like you said, perhaps finally that increase in supply is actually keeping momentum in the market instead of slowing it down there's literally nothing there. it's been amazing to watch how active it is for what is typically a quiet summer period. we appreciate it thank you. >> thank you for having me i appreciate it. >> brian nagel speaking of home builders, the etf is lower today we'll talk about some of the bright spots the names bucking the down trend and what is propping them up also, the krip tow collapse continues with bitcoin dropping

again today. it's down 7% over the past week. still about 53% off the highs. we'll dig into it with the exchange continues stay with us retirement income is complicated. as your broker, i've solved it. that's great, carl. but we need something better. that's easily adjustable has no penalties or advisory fee. and we can monitor to see that we're on track. like schwab intelligent income. schwab! introducing schwab intelligent income. a simple, modern way to pay yourself from your portfolio. oh, that's cool... i mean, we don't have that. schwab. a modern approach to wealth management. that building you're trying to buy, - you should ten-x it. - ten-x it?

ten-x is the world's largest online commercial real estate exchange. you see it. you want it. you ten-x it. it's that fast. if i could, i'd ten-x everything. like... uh... these salads. or these sandwiches... ten-x does the same thing, but with buildings. sweet. oh no, he wasn't... oh, actually... that looks pretty good. see it. want it. ten-x it. yum! ♪ ♪ ♪ digital transformation has failed to take off. because it hasn't removed the endless mundane work we all hate. ♪ ♪ ♪ automation can solve that by taking on repetitive tasks for us. unleash your potential. uipath. reboot work. ♪ ♪ we made usaa insurance for veterans like martin.

when a hailstorm hit, he needed his insurance to get it done right, right away. usaa. what you're made of, we're made for. usaa welcome back to "the exchange" on the down day. the dow is down more than 900 points now we're close to session lows. 2.6% decline for the dow the s&p down 2% and the nasdaq down 1.4%. the biggest decline since mid may. here is a look at the losers on the dow talking about the energy names, the financials, names like goldman sachs those are weighing heavily today. also boeing a big decliner boeing is down more than 5%. am exand travelers contributing to the declines. bitcoin is plunging along with stocks it's dropping about 3% today and down about 7% in just the past week it started collapsing after the

year was red hot despite some calling it an inflation hedge. bitcoin's value has been cut in half since april and in danger dipping below the $30,000 mark for more we'll bring in finley parker along with kate raoni there's a lot of talk about stable coins, actually, the big area of concern one that might be pulling out the rug from beneath the space. do you think there's a merit. >> for sure. they are officially on the radar for regulators and, you know, it's been an ongoing controversy about stable coins like tether but the reason they're in the spotlight now is the market has gotten so big the market cap at the top reached $100 billion that is up from around $11 billion earlier. so, you know, it's now a big force in the market and a lot of people are using it to enter the krip tow currency market it's a reason to ask how stable they are. >> there's more news over the weekend. i think there's a working group that the president or janet

yellen is currently involved with how long until there's more clarity. you have certain members saying there needs to be more clarity around crypto from all directions the regulatory concern. do you think it's part, kate, of what is moving the whole space lower or are they just kind of gifting wrapped up in whatever else is going on with markets here >> that's been part of the effect this year more focus on regulation there's the presidential panel including a bunch of regulatory heads meeting about a dollar-packed digital currency we had jerome powell saying he's not a fan of stablecoins saying there's not the framework now. so that could be a hint that we'll see or at least a regulatory framework, some argue could be good for the krip crypto market in general and the idea you wouldn't need stable coins if they had a u.s. digital currency i was looking at tether, emily mentioned the rise of that we have talked about crypto

currency back in april when bitcoin was around $60,000, the market cap of tether was around $40 billion. since bitcoin has fallen, it's risen to about $60 billion analyst and traders have been saying watch the tether market when people leave bitcoin they're not going back into a bank account they would rather put their money on tether. if they see an opportunity to get back in, they can quickly go in and out from an exchange versus liquidating and going back into dollars. i think today is more of macro , though >> it's like watching equity flows, where are they parking it and all of these different kinds of things. people in the crypto space generally seem -- not the long-term ones who are building it but the ones who are in it with an eye towards whether this is really the time that it's going to appreciate in value or not. i feel there's so much negative sentiment right now. do you think the price is ultimately what resolves that? it seems people are seeing this

more as the beginning than the end of the move. >> it really depends on what your perspective is. if you enter around $60,000, this is not a great moment for you. if you entered the bitcoin market a few years ago, or if you were smart enough to buy the dip last year in 2020 when it was below $4,000, you're still having a pretty huge return. and the larger narrative about bitcoin is this narrative institutional investors are getting involved and that narrative hasn't really changed. that's a longer term narrative we see bank of america is allowing bitcoin future tradeings for clients such as happened last week or was reported by coin desk. this is the larger narrative remains the same. >> and one quick final question, kate, when there's a huge exchange or a platform that's under so much regulatory scrutiny, people get a little nervous. is that a separate issue because it was doing unregulated futures or do you think it's making the average person a little bit queasy about how they're holding or accessi ing crypto

>> that's an interesting case study. the crackdowns say more about that regulatory structure. they're big in asia and offer massive amounts of leverage, 100 to 1 in some instances that was blamed for some of the weakness earlier in the year when you saw some of that unwind people needed to meet certain margin calls companies have grown to such a huge juggernautand the uk issues are more regional and more specific to what's going on there. anything to do with regulation has seemed to really catch the attention of traders asia is so interesting these companies that are so global operating in so many different markets when the framework in every single market is different. >> not really having a jurisdiction and that's not working for them either. thank you very much, we appreciate it. let's turn to the home builders now a pretty mixed bag, holding up

thanks to yields pulte is down. diane olick and what this means for the housing market it will take for a while for yields to ripple through into mortgages. >> reporter: yeah, it's already happening even though the builder's sentiment that was out this morning dropped slightly more than expected it's still high and the stocks are clearly more interested in falling mortgage rates than anything else. take a look at the average on the 30-year fixed which loosely tracks the yield on the ten-year treasury it came down pretty sharply and is way down where it was last spring now it's down about a quarter of a point from just last thursday. with home prices, especially for new construction, still rising fast due to higher construction costs, any savings on that interest rate side should give sales a lift it's also possible that this new surge in covid cases could increase demand yet again for new homes. we saw demand skyrocket at the start of the pandemic as people look for homes with more space stocks could also be following the lead of kb home which was

upgraded by seaport research partners they said partly due to deleveraging and partly because the outlook for housing on balance remains favorable, also the big runup in home prices heightens concerns on affordability, but fundamentally demographics look good for the next several years now we get earnings on thursday from the nation's largest home builder dr horton and we'll be watching for commentary on rates there that could move the stocks yet again. kelly? >> what's your sense of the momentum in the housing market right now? anecdotally i'm seeing tons of supply is that still helping the market with some positive momentum throughout the summer? do you think things are slowing at all >> i wouldn't say tons there is new supply coming on to the market sellers want to take advantage of those higher prices we are seeing new supply we're not seeing quite enough yet for the home builders which we need to see more of we've seen dips in sales and a surge in pending home sales. we see mortgage rates now come

down sharply some of those people on the fence might think, okay, now is a quick time to get in because the overall thought was that mortgage rates would be going up throughout the rest of the year. this may be that last chance to see them jump in again, it will depend on that buyer sentiment and how much really good quality supply there is out there that's affordable there are new listings but, kelly, you know they are super pricey. >> i don't blame sellers they're seeing their opportunity. my eyebrows certainly go up when i see what they're listing at. a quick final question on this i do wonder if we're about to enter the third school year where there are concerns about covid and what it will mean for students and reopenings and all of that. do you think that actually makes people think, who haven't thought before about relocating or working from home -- in other words, we're not past this yet for the third, it feels like, school year now we're talking about where are you going to be able to go to school and work and all the rest of it i wonder if that will add a little bit more demand into the market of people relocating.

>> reporter: i think it's absolutely possible. i mean, look, we expected everything to be reopening and everything to go back to normal this summer. now we have the new delta variant. people are thinking again what's opening in the fall. what's not will the office be open? will i be sitting in this house, and is this house too small? do i need to make that move? there may not be a lot of them left from so many last year. we saw massive sales last year, but there could be some who say maybe this is longer term than i thought, and that could juice some demand. again, there needs to be that supply out there for them to be able to afford >> diana, thanks diana olick with the latest data point in housing the reopening names under pressure, a quick check with seema mody >> reporter: what's interesting, kelly, the sell-off in travel, a sharp contrast to the bookings numbers which shows travelers are back on the road again here is hotel occupancy the last few weeks after a record july 4th occupancy has fallen, still

averaging around 66% this fall will be critical for the industry just to see how significant of a pickup in corporate, business travel as schools reopen and kids go back to school. i think the other question, kelly, will people's travel preferences change airbnb was a big beneficiary during the pandemic last year. you'll see it is down less than some of the other travel operators like expedia today. >> they're all holding up relatively well all things considered seema, appreciate it seema mody that does it for "the exchange" today. don't go anywhere because next on "power lunch" with markets selling off on the delta variant concern, is it time to rebet on the shutdown stocks. as i observe investors balance risk and reward, i see one element securing portfolios, time after time. gold. your strategic advantage.

new customers get our best deals on all smartphones. that's right. but what if i'm already a customer? oh, no problem. hey, cam...? ah, same deal! yeah, it's kind of our thing. huh, that's a great deal... what if i'm new to at&t? cam, can you...? hey...but what about for existing customers? same deal (breathless) it's the same deal is he ok? it's not complicated. with at&t, everyone can ace back to school with our best deals on every smartphone - like the samsung galaxy s21 5g for free.

there's interest you accrue, and interests you pursue. plans for the long term, and plans for a long weekend. assets you allocate, and ones you hold tight. at thrivent, we believe money is a tool, not a goal. and with the right guidance, you can get the financial clarity you need, and live a life rich in meaning, and gratitude. to learn more, text thrive to 444555, or visit thrivent.com.

good afternoon, everyone and what an afternoon it is. a very busy one. the worst declines in the market for the year welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. along with kelly evans, i'm tyler mathison glad you could join us the sell-offis intensifying, the dow heading for its worst decline of 2021. as pandemi