precedent, there's some traders who feel more constructive if you're looking at odds over the last year, it seems easing right now. >> we always seem to close that gap to kind of have a catch down to it. dom, thanks. >> you're very welcome. tyler, a pleasure to have you back >> good to be here busy day, it would be interesting tomorrow with the bezos space flight. "closing bell" picks up this market sell-off right now. well to the "closing bell," everyone i'm wilfred frost, the do you on target for the largest drop of the year. >> i'm sara eisen. let's get to what is driving the action in this final hour of trade. fears of the delta variant and concerns of another spy in covid cases is front and center.

on. opec plus reaching a deal, crude oil is getting slammed consumer staples are holding up the best. we are all over the big sell-off for you wharton professor of finance jeremy siegel, tony dwyer, director of investment research rebecca patsen, and ruchir sharma brian sullivan will be here, but meg, let's start with you, what is the latest >> the delta variant is causing a spike in cases in the united states, now to daily case numbers we haven't seen since mid may, up to about 32,000 recorded in a single day, 66%

higher we're also seeing hospitalizations and deaths rising as well 31% higher now to 19,000 deaths rising to 266 it is the areas with the lowest vaccination rates seeing the biggest spread, folks emphasizing that the vaccining do hold up against severe cases of covid, even from the delta variant, severe cases in particular there's a lot of questions about breakthrough infections. ed cdc didn't track that, saying what matters is severe disease more than 159 million americans are fully vac nated. the number of people who are hospitalized, about 5100 deaths just over 1,000, very, very small compared to the number of vaccinated people. new jersey giving numbers are

cases that are considered breakthroughs, about 3,400 among 4 million, the number of hospitalizations and deaths are very, very small can you see the public health message that being vaccinated will protect you against the severe effects from the delta variant. at the same time we're just seeing this concerning spread, because this is the most contagious we have seen yet. guys >> without the knowledge of the breakthrough cases, meg, the question is what is the economic impact on this i feel like one key question is whether those are transmittable to children and unvaccinated people when you think about shutting down the economy or rethinking the whole schools, or coming back to the office, that is a key question it sounds like we're knot going to know that until, what, we get information from israel or the uk >> we are certainly accalculating data from other countries. there's a study being done in

universities, where they are trying to understand transmission among vaccinated people we don't know when we'll see the results, but there's a lot of pressure on the cdc, including from dr. scott gottlieb, on "squawk box," that they should be tracking the breakthroughs. so we'll see how cdc responds to that there seems to be academic ways of them obtaining that information, but a lot of people just want them to give us the numbers of the cases they've got. >> when you look at the data on hospitalizations and deaths, the encouraging data, you can't put a totally different spin, which is that the vaccines are working on a totally new variant, which we didn't know would be the casent we got here, and it's working. >> absolutely. that is the message you hear from public health officials, this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated

if you're vaccinated, the chances you'll be hospitalized from the delta variant or die from infection are very, very small. they're not zero, but very, very small. the vaccines do hold sup incredibly well. >> mike, what does all this mean >> a lot of the issues we've been highlighting, a very narrow rally, the large-cap stocks really just burst into the open today? why? treasury yields made a new low, and what we see here is this kind of rolling over at the s&p 500 index level around these areas here, kind of like going back to the area where it broke out from dom mentioned earlier, has been saying it all day, it bounced off that several times this year so far, though not necessarily

right when you touch it the full time a pullback against you back tos 4200 area, you know, so we're still talking about giving some of the winning built up through the year, but it's kind of a nowhere to hide type of environment. take a look at the russell 2000. this area really peaked way back in the beginning part of this year and now at the low range. six months it's done nothing more or less, also looking very oversold i think we were led into this by the speculative growth stocks, by all cyclicals, and that's kind of the silver lining, to a degree, which means a lot of the punishment has been absorbed take a look at another mesh usual of the internal weakness this is coming into today, the percentage of stocks in that

index above their own 50-day average, so you see thises on la this oscillates. that was a 20% s&p 500 decline here, of course, you have the 35% drove here, and here with the that means two things. one if it doesn't bounce, then that's a bit of a dog that didn't bark when it was supposed to so there's a bit of a suspension there >> one that i've seen you talking about earlier.

>> it's not really in panic mode you don't look for people to aggressively exit. you are seeing this massive rally in treasuries not being met by similar bid bidding nothing that would tell you beyond what the equity market is already doing. >> thank you, mike >> worth as -- brian sullivan joins us now to follow up on what mike was saying, you've got to understand the markets option here.

they were kind of the same, and this market is kind of grinding higher, and then you get the rug pulled out >> a moon ago, it was more than 20 to 1 bullish option bets so when anything triggers that, whatever that might be it sort of ig nights that i market i think it's less the increase of supply, guys by the way, those barrels won't even hit the market for probably about another month, anyway.

everybody on one side, or in oil as well. this is what we got. by the way, guys, the price of oil down 17% in just a couple weeks. i mean, it looks like the lumber, chart, right what goes up, must come down i read some to notes saying this is constructive. have we seen the peak for the year >> you're exactly right. that is the point, sara. we flood the market with oil on a pricing war like last year we've got the exact opposite it was a sunday morning zoom call -- by the way, thanks, opec -- it was a love-fest, everything is fine, so directionally the price of oil should be going up, because u.s.

production is not going up nothing wants to commit new capital to the market. literally that you throw money into, so directionally you are correct. you get some concerning about lockdowns in indonesia and australia as well. that was kind of the spark, and again, i think you throw the gasoline of the huge one-sided options bets 23 to 1 a month ago on one side. you flip it because you have a nasty headline, and i think that's what we have today. >> brian sullivan, thank you. >> thank you. the dow is down 945 points or so, as we speak -- excuse me, 845 points for more on the sell-off,

allianz's mohamed el-erian it's gone to about 15 to 1 is this technical in nature? positioning? or do you see this as serious concerns and a rethink of the economy? >> hi, sara. thank you for having me. i think as you heard mike and brian say, it's two things coming together. concerns about global economic growth, and a couple factors fueling that more you donnell want to sell something that's down already, and you createthis cajun in markets. we've seen it each and over again. it is technical, but it's a fundamental drive as well.

>> they have, and nowhere are they good for equity markets like they were for a long time if you want to understand the level of the ten-year, you have to talk about certain technical elements we are seeing a lot more managers try to immunize their liabilities. why? because their stock side has gone up a lot. they're not so commercial in terms of sensitive to yield levels they just want to immunize the second is foreign demand yes, there is some economic trigger, but to understand the levels where we are, we've also got to go to technical

don't forget, this fed is economied to buys 120 million, so that's also reassuring people at these levels. >> but, mohamed, the move a week or so ago that surprised everyone, technicals there, when it prolongs i totally get, though that doesn't have to necessarily be totally bush you've been saying of late recently that lower yields doesn't mean necessarily -- >> yeah, i warned against that in my -- look, the old days, the nair activity was smaller. it will continue to keep yields down they can refinance easily. they can engage in all sorts of

financial engineering, particularly issue bonds and buy back stock, and of course there's a lot of m & a activities, spacs, whatever you want to call it. that is true as long as it's a stable situation when it becomes unstable, when you have both concerns about stag, lower growth and inf inflation, sundayly the bond mark is no longer your friend. that's what we've seen evolve the last few weeks i expect that will be the case for a while. >> it's not necessarily stagflation, right >> yeah. it's heart it's so distorted, sara. remember, you and i can no longer look at indicators, where it is the slope of the yield

curve. when you have such commercial buyers buying, it distorts market signals we're operating a bit in the dark right now >> you know, you said yourself a lot of the commodities have rolled over. the materials are off 11% from the highs. so if the market was scared about stagflation, wouldn't that be a different story >> let's see what happens to wages and the labor market that's an important part of the transient versus persistent inflation. two, let's not forget what's already in the pipeline. i'm not willing to say everything is fine, inflation is transitory, we don't know as of yet, and i think it's important

to keep an open mind today in the uk is meant to be a reopening day, and clearly all the coverage is about cases going up now, hopefully going forward, governments react to hospitalizations and deaths, not just to cases. assuming that that didn't has been and u.s. equity investors started to fear that in the u.s. it was possible we would go back into some form of lockdown again this fall, what would that be worth? >> i don't think we're going to get a pure lockdown. what we may get. what i want to stress is may get, is people being more cautious about the way they interact economically. that's why the travel stock, the leisure stocks are being hit so hard the uk tells us a few things, things we know, wilfred, things we don't know. we know delta is more contagious

we know it's lower down, and we know that vaccinations matter. what we don't know, is has the link been broken or just weak end? moment, does this take a takering off the tape for 2021 >> gosh, that's really heart, because it depends on the labor market i suspect for a dove leadership, for a fed leadership that's been so dovish, it does take it off, but you will see a lot of debade within the fed >> i suspect this fed leadership will not want to taper concern about covid. >> always great to see you thank you for calling in. >> it's off the louws of the

session, so pretty close to that at the moment, and she's the worst performing sector. let's bring in what then pr professor jeremy siegel. great to see you as always let's start on the yield move, if we can, and how it's so pronounced, continues last week's already pronounced move, 118, can that go on? >> i think if it goes on a bit longer, think it shows what a great hedge asset those treasuries are people move opposite the risk assets, move opposite the stock market, the vix and the treasuries now have been -- people are trying to say, i'm going to go into treasuries, whenever the marketfalls the delta variant is more threatening internationally,

clearly an emerging markets color not well vaccinated at all, but even in european markets, where astrazeneca doesn't seem to be as effective as the mrna vaccines of the u.s., this delta variant is probably going to cause the last wave in the u.s. when it's over, maybe a month, six, eight weeks, i think the u.s. will probably have have achieved what we call herd immunity, going into the fall. so i don't see u.s. economic growth slowing i do see an effect on world economic growth, because they don't have -- they're not approaches herd immunity that i think the u.s. is pretty close to now >> that's sort of suggestive that this is the final flush out for equities but did you feel like that's

what's happen to the market today? >> i think we may have a few more percent to go, but you know, as meg tirrell said, we have treatments, even for the tun vaccinated, and i hope this does encourage, but for the unvaccinated this is likely to be the last u.s. wave. >> i think with the fed, i don't think tapering is off the table. >> if we don't get an infrastructure bill, we're going to get a bill by the end of the year that will increase spending again, and i think that that the push there still is favorable for a equities

>> would you go so far to say buy the cyclical stocks? the airlines autos? energy all those groups >> the beginning of the year when everyone was getting the vaccines, we thought, hey, yeah, this is reopening. you know, that got spent, and then delta hit i mean, i personally know people who have canceled their trips, delaying them again. delta, that kills energy, that is definitely a reopening trade, a value trade. >> i think we will he so will

see this is the last waive by the late fall, i think those might be good president trump. -- purchases >>. >> does it worry you, which is important to the overall industries, would that concern you? >> jim cramer said that's the last one to roll over. that means the correction is over he regard that as a bullish sign peopled -- it's almost considered the conservative set of stocks that people flock to this is maybe the rolling

collection we had that produced that march peak, but i do not think we're at the start of a bear market, or even a correction that will be a 10% decline. >> a lot of people are watching nvidia, which is higher. it was a leader in terms of last week, falling, predicting some of the weakness, semis in particular what about the impact to consumer technology? even if it's just another wave, as you say, the final wave in this pandemic. is isn't there likely to say confidence of that isn't that likely to hurt the economy, at least in the near term, at a time where the fiscal stimulus is wearing off, the unemployment benefits bump-up does go away in september?

>> think of how forward-looking stocks are they look past the concern they'll see this peak. if they think, hey, this is the last peak, we're basically at herd immunity in the u.s., you know, we could put this at rest, and of course we're talking about boosters for the fall. >> you take a look at the number of deaths for thinks illnesses, and say, listen, i think i can resume my normal life. of course, we talk about normal life, i think covid changed everything for the workplace, but in terms of able to do the activities, i think the market is forward-looking and will see through it relatively soon. >> it's good to hear your optimism, i think, for a lot of folks on a down day. >> thank you, sara be well.

> . zoom cyd i don't is buying five-nine, which is a cloud-based call center. that deal is expected to close in the first half of 2022. those stocks obviously going in opposite directions, but zoom is holding up relatively well, down only 2.4%. other stay-at-home stocks like peloton, chewy, etsy all higher by 6%, at least chewy and peloton. either etsy is up this is the familiar stay-at-home trade that we thought was over it's nice to be peloton is up 6% today. >> rethinking going to the gym. the dow having its worst day

in months. bob my sani is here on the floor of the stock exchange. >> we've been down 900 points since essentially 1:00 p.m the markets and the people have assumed that the virus is going away, but the virus has not. you see it on the payment processes, concerns about perhaps people going out a bit less >> the hotels and the restaurants, like darden, all week no real bounce, northerly to bes, we had an opec agreement, but still high beta names all down 4%, 5%. all lower as well. banks, what can do you with a

1.2% ten-year yield? we've been weaker for the last couple months, the transports, for example, have been weaker. the one thing i would point out, guys, remember the s&p 500 is still up 13 march this years, a 2% down day. this is one of the better years we've had, even in this tremendous run of positive earnings and positive s&p for the last ten years still, 13% this year, guys, back to you. >> bob, just quickly, as you said, it's a massive down day, but what sentiment like? are the traders that you talk to with panic not panic. we are at peak everything this,

the virus is not going to go away, is not part of the narrative. again, everyone is trying to reprice risk right now >> bob pisani, thanks for that let's get to josh lipton , let's dig into the nasdaq. down four of the fifth dates the index is now down about 4%, you're still up about 10% so far in 2021. big tech not immune to this sell-off, either.

>> also edges lowers here, that is the long test losing streak since december back to you, wilf. let's see what kind of technical damage we've been do you? yes, the major averages were near record highs, but the auto, the airlines, this has been going on for weeks, down 10% to 20%. what do you see coming next? >> there's definitely been a rotational pullback, and even still we're not seeing a lot of breakdowns as you mentioned, this is a real retracement for the faang stocks and the others that's definitely an important thing to note.

that's measures like the vix, and those spikes tend to last no more than two to four days inch i see that as an encouraging sign we also have oversold readings oar extremes, so the ratio of advances to decliners -- those have been associated with a pullback my sense is it's a top/down-oriented move we'll see it bottom all at once and maybe somewhat surprisingly from the travel and leisure names, where they've got these gaps down today that look exhaustive to

me >> what about the ten-year yield, katy? what is the next stop? >> that was right around 1.23% if we see a couple weeks there are still indications that this year, two, is a shakeout of sorts. we'll see a pretty quick recovery based on in part just the emotional nation of today's move it does looks climactic. >> katy, what about the stocks that are performing today? what would you make of that, given that they're not typically

stocks that do well on a down day? it's like a high-growth rotation today, which is surprising to a lot of folks i think in part it's because they came in today much more oversold there were some support levels that were in place, even for the solar energy funds like t.a.n., biotech stocks as measured by xbi. so i think it's a function of their relatively oversold condition. it also suggests that perhaps this isn't an outright risk-off move, programs being driven that problems it's not much worse

>> what's the next stop there? >> we have definitely seen some contraction, but there really isn't any breakdown between the likes of the russell 2000, and we're seeing this as a downswing. there is more near the rising 200-days moving average, and like we're seeing today, after down moves like we have seen, they're often exhaustive if we see a strong close through tomorrow's close, i think that would be very promising and suggests we'll get some improvement in market breadth. what's your take on bitcoin?

because it's so widely watched, i wonder if it might be prone to a shakeout so that's what i'm expecting, is sort of a shakeout above 30,000. we do have a buy signal in the cryptocurrency even today. so i'm not giving up on the take that will ultimately break out, and that would be the positive catalyst there >> katy, thanks so much for joining us good to see you. of course. you too. stocks falling, of course, as we've been discussing throughout the show, currently on pace, the dow is for its worst day of the year, down 2.6%, as we stand just shy of 900 points let's bring in tony dwyer, chief market strategist. good to see you as always. i guess recently you were a bit

more cautious than some other on the street in fact you're getting a bit more constructive again. is that fair >> as you know, wilf, we've been talking about this i think it's important to paint the fundamental backdrove then you had the dot-com bust, then 9/11 each of those occurrences, once you made the lift off the low, in the first move, you went into the summer of indigestion. you worried about a double-dip with no news remember the flash cart of 2010? that created just this period of you gave back some of the gains, but it provided an opportunity to go back into the economically sensitive themes into the end of the year so, you know, at this point, i

don't think down 13% or with the russell down 10 and the trannies down 10, we had the nasdaq down ten in may i think the time to get nervous was when rates were at 177, and everything on the up side was discounted. >> what about it is risks to that view, tony why are you relatively confident that we're going to bounce? >> the note i wrote today is getting there. in other words, we're not quite there. as katy said, you have a bit of a bounce, but again, on the intermediate term stuff, you have a bit more to go. what got us cautious was just that the euphoria that was going in february, with the spacs, all the ipos, you couple that with a massive move, remember last summer when we talked, nobody in their right mind wanted -- i

called them the banks and tanks. none of it made sense because you have still in covid. fast forward to what was going on in march. the fed still has the foot on the pedal. there's still potential stimulus to come. we now know what a closed economy versus a somewhat-closing economy might look like. it's hard to make the case we're going back to where we were last year so why today, where every

dow stock is down right now and we're down the better part of 1,000 points is because of the breakthrough cases? >> sara, we've been doing this a lot tine in situations like this, you're typically a market looking for an excuse. obviously it's a horrible thing. the delta variant has provided an excuse. we look at it like it's today. it's not today it's the last two months you've a massive decline of the economic recovery theme. that's what we downgraded in march and april. we downgraded the banks in march, and then weds did the rest of the cyclicals again in april, because things were too euphoric why today? it's been happening for the last two months for all of these areas. >> what would be your top sector

pick for the rest of the year? >> this is going to -- getting there, not quite there yet, but financials, industrials, materials, even to some degree energy there's two ways that the market really goes down more than 10% and stay there a market event we're in a bit of one of those right now, or the perception you're going to fall back into recession. >> i really thinking it's highly, highly unlikely. we're in a bit of fear, and historically like 2004, you want to attack weakness sometimes it's painful to be taking profits, but it pays off, because then you can attack it on the down side. >> what about tech, tony what do you do there it's a relative outperformer,

but still you're seeing pressure on the megacaps, the semis, microsoft, apple, google. >> the last couple times when you had growth still outperforming value, value started to outperform because value was going up more, basically what happened is the growth stocks got hit then they finally got around and hit growth on higher interest rates. i think that may be how this whole summer of indigestion ends, but i think it's really important to differentiate which part of tech if you look at the nasdaq, less than 20% of stocks in the nasdaq composite trading above their interim medium-term, it's a low number, again signifying to me there's been a lot of weakness that is now culminating in the

news/headline index moves. >> freedom day is it's being billed in the uk what would happen in the u.s. market if things got reversed? even if it doesn't imply that would follow in the u.s., what type of headline would that do >> see, i think this is where it's important, wilf, we oversold two weeks ago, it would have been a disaster. if you get oversold enough, it would have been discounted i think that's what we have to remember sometimes a market is a discounting mechanic tism. and in march, i think at this point, i'm looking at it, it's a 118 on the ten-year, it's got to be discountsing some of the slowdown i don't think the cdc announcement today that they're warning people about going to the uk, that's kind of filters

into the marketplace already >> thank you on the freedom day. >> on the freedom today day. >> the interesting thing about that is that it puts it some the bracket where some countries with vaccination rates -- i've given up wrapping around the guidance it's indicative of what they think about the situation, and maybe the quality of the vaccine? something like that? we'll see. we have 17 minutes left. mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments today we've been barbara duran with us as well.

the dow is down 840 points we're down 2% on the s&p, 1.4% on the nasdaq. mike, i guess we bounced initially off this sort of 950-point decline, but not convincingly >> it's not been a real rush for the exit we've been sluggish since then it's a comprehensive flush, though. >> first of all, it's cumulative, the ongoing -- and

then that sends a certain number of people onto alert mode. >> but it happens in stages. the other people of it is, well, that's going to trigger some people that's also where people are short. you're going to buy back your shorts thanks to some of her home plays. >> sara, i bought a couple names. i think this is setting up for a

good buy ing opportunity. the fundamentals haven't changed. i still believe inflation is tran transitory so this kind of action i think is an opportunity. even though we are seeing a big pickup, worldwide, i don't think we're going to see a shutdown so i think i leapt right in because i've been adding all along.

about bookings and capacity, and we know they've done a lot of cultural cost savings, so i think they're setting up for a lot of the stock has traded down, it was down below 40 today, and i think a i think economies will continue to reopen, but right now mike, looking at the nasdaq right now, so it buckled today these are some of the -- the question is are these the names that will get bought or are the financials and industrial -- we have a variety

of opinions. basically it was really not even tech that was holding things together not because they were tech i would say, have we done enough has there been enough pressure applied to where we have gotten to a more reasonable level of valuation? that to me doesn't say, let's -- and i do think that they are the kind of final perceived high-ground names that people were highs >> if up to -- or we're really going to have another freeze of golden trade and trouble, absolutely

seema mody has the details. >> we'll start with the cruise lines. yes, we have seen some shorter trips and delays, but no major cancellations. with that said, florida does count for 20% of the new cases, so this will be a big test for the crew lines >> i would call out airbnb you guys were talking about peloton, but it's down less than some of its travel peers bookings has remained very strong here in the u.s., so that

is given some hope to the bulls out there. >> seema mody, thank you are you worried this delta variant could postpone we weren't even seeing internary -- >> i may be a bit early on delta. even if there's new travel restrictions we'll see, but i think it's interesting what you saw in the uk. they opened everything up even though covid has been rising so i think you have such fatigue, so california, just

wearing masks, so i think there's no appetite among consumers. i don't see a big decrease in leisure activities things will be okay. >> are they cheap on a multiple basis? >> no, not at all. they're still losing money for the most part. i think they were trading on the direction of reopening forces. now, there's a pretty good discount now, with a rollover off the highs as a group but i don't think it's as much

of a -- just a direction of news flows going against them we're not worried about, you know, existential threats. it's much more about when can they get back to appreciable cash flows also ball yields are falling. here is morgan stanley, the best performing, wells fargo somewhere in team.

>> and, of course, their valuation protecting them a bit, too. here, by the way, is another snapshot of that those are the two best perfo performers. >> you'll see them respond accordingly. >> the other piano es that moves more slow ly.

>> energy is the worst performer. cnbc's pippa stevens has the details. >> amid the sell-off in royal. >> -- >> just as it's hitting down 4%. diamondback, phillips 66, and eog resources among the names leading those not diplomat quite

as much as oil >> i will not be buying energy they're too unrickable i think a month ago we were talking about opec here they are. s&p 500, all the best news, recovery worldwide, and i think in general there are long term. >> akron the country and the world.

>> frankly, historically, junior has not been a great performer it has about dwight the volatility so in general, i don't -- energy is, for me, trading vehicles >> another point to know, of course. >> >> no doubt kicking around the 5% threshold. we haven't had a 5% or more drop, when you did get a 10% peak to trough >> i think one of the other things going on, it gets at the energy story, is another way of explaining what's been happening is the benefit has rolled over pretty hard.

, as opposed to buying the riskiest stuff now, no bell rings that we're in the middle of the cycle, but it's a very unusual compressed nature, exemplified by the fact that -- and -- in case you were wonder if markets lead or not. >> mike, i just want to bring up the olympics for a moment. that is coming up within days. >> sure. >> there are now, what, 57 positive cases -- 58, excuse

me -- people testing positive. not just athletes, but there were two high-profile athletes that's an example of what is happening with the delta variant. i wonder how much of that factors into the psychology? it was in the process of overshooting what we're seeing is a wobble from all-time highs, trying to reprice. it's not, to me, the same kind of aha, this is the recognition moment whether it all matters. 90 seconds left.

internals? >> probably maybe nip-and-tuck some people think it's basically a capitulation we won't necessarily get that, now, the nasdaq is the outperformer there's been enough weakness building up to have 256 new 52-week lows so that's obviously, you know, getting slightly watched out on some level, and then the volatility index mentioned earlier, we popped up above 24 now it's liking like a higher h high. >> just 30 seconds left in the session. we're off the session lows, which was down 950 on you dow, still down 750, or just shy.

all are lower. on the ten-year, at the close, we are off the lows, down 1.6% on the s&p 500. >> still the worst day of the year, worst day in fact since october. welcome back to "closing bell" if you're just joining us. only, painful, but could have been worse

>> s&p 500 also sharply lower on the day, down 1.5% it was down almost 2%. the nasdaq got hit today as well, but it did outperform the rest of the market you saw weakness, but you also saw strength there, so moderna did well peloton some weather spiking

covid cases will derail global growth set to report earnings just moments from now first up on this market sell-off, barbara duran is still with us. rebecca patterson, bridgewater associate director. so that's the risks you have to assess, right? >> here we are again >> i do think there's just a tremendous amount of built-up house money in the market.

we all have been on alert for peak earnings growth rate by some of the larger index stocks. very different to say. you saul this partial bounce it's going to contain some suspension for tomorrow. maybe you would want to see an ugly open and then the traders would want to take a shot. is this a buying opportunity >> well, outto sail today versus tomorrow versus next week, but if you look at what the market is pricing in. , i think the risk is, yes, i'm

not a covid expert it does seem, with the fiscal stimulus we've gotten, and the u.s. still to come with a new fed reaction function, with extremely strong corporate appeared household balance sheets it seems incoherent to me that you would have these levels of yields against that growth backdrop yes, i think it's a buying opportunity, whether it's today or next week, but that's the way i would approach it. >> i would say that there's going to be a lot of government money with the next fiscal package. you have the government money coming, and households who have the ability and the desire to

spend. you've seen things like travel and leisure airlines down there might be some opportunities for sectors, and if you think yields are too low and the curve could steepen then between strong i think that would be another sector it makes sense to me >> so i get you field a bit vindicated today >> i think we'll hit that 3800 or so before october is over you think about the long-term view, i agree there are some

posi positives we've seen china t titan, we have seen global money supply we have made a -- and we have a view that while there will be a fiscal spending package, getting washington to do it, not raise taxes significantly will mean you'll have a fits dalles drag in '22 over '21 so, yeah, i feel very confident, and we prefer the defenses, not the growth stocks, where you're going to lose three points of p.e., on account of the

financial conditions index tightening. >> rebecca, the dollar is your wheelhouse as well. >> is that a sign that the move has shifted? >> i think if you look across the -- the dollar going up, currencies like the swiss franc, it definitely fields like a flight to safety is going on >> it does -- i think there's just a greater cone of uncertainty, you know, when do we get the fiscal package, how big is it? do we understand the fed reaction so i think that justifies the market repricing a bit, but you have a current deficit that's quite large.

the bigger thing is you have foreign investors with the largest allocations to the u.s., stocks and bonds, since the mid 1980s, what gets the capital to come in that funding and lift the dollar further is it going to be good enough, strong enough? >> we have the ecb meeting later this week, you could get a did you havish statement from lagarde, and maybe not do quite as well against others earlier on cnbc, pershing square's big ackman weighed in, and whether he thinking it would impact the overall u.s. economy. >> i don't think it's going to change behavior to a great

extent i think people are done -- i am -- with being in a cave they want to go out, have fun, go to restaurants. you'll see a massive, in my view, economic boom, some people will be afraid some people are afraid of getting a vaccine, therefore afraid of going out, but i don't think -- i think we'll have an extremely strong economy come the fall i think people will return to work in september. i think companies will insist on vaccines, and i think it's a good thing ma about the marginal -- you can have that positive view, but you come back to that question fairly quickly.

why would you sell things are very comfortable, so i don't think that's really the play here, but you know they made people defensive. they knocked down optimism, and had people generate some cash. >> what do you think about sentiment here >> if you think about what they're effectively tightening so all we're debating is whether

they taper and when there was a very dovish statement. the europeans don't want the europo to be strange they've have to force than hair i think that high-yield spreads at 35-year lows have upside. >> with that, i'm pleased that the targets isn't lower. it's very good to get that

perspective. which stock, in light of this pullback, which is the inindividually had been part of that, but it's also superb fundamentals they have just about every area out there. so that, even though it's up 3% today, there's still room there. >> thank you all for joining us. >> ibm is reporting q2 results here, that's for expectations of

$2.29. revenue come in 18.75. and. continues to expect growth for the year, turning to the big segment, crowd, 6.1 billion, 4.3 billion, global technology 3.3, and systems 1.7 billion. this stock is up about 10% this year, it was off about 10%, and that conference call tick kicks off at 5:00 p.m. eastern back to you all. >> pretty bullish, job lipton, thank you. anni, it looks like they numbers are better than the street was expecting. some of the breakdown showed alps improvement from last quarter. what's your take >> listen, the headline so far

looks pretty good. you've seen demand accelerate. software i think was up, up about 6%, and things are moving in the right direction i would say all of this is positive in the context of the feel with jim the ceo leaving. they look to be in the right direction. the struggle, you said, though, has been consistency and durable of the top-line growth that was the key to listen to on the call. >> what is it that investors can't get over that he's leaving? clearly he did not get the top job, arvin got the top job why are investors still stuck on this >> red hat was a big foundational deal for ibm, and what could drive success over

time is -- over time does it look more like red hat, or red hat end up looking like the lazy -- which -- and i think that was a -- you fought the whole time i think arvin has done a great job. so i think people are stuck is jim's leaving -- >> your view on that at the moment is not the case you're backing off of it >> yeah. these numbers look really good.

>> what about confession going around the market today? peak growth -- is this the peak for how good it gets and ultimately does it benefit. >> yeah, absolutely. maybe a bit more of a nuance than that, it's something that's had a lot of cyclical benefits and as things are now, with the s cyclically benefited -- that's one part you worry about the other part is i think ibm was taking part of the physical transformation that happens. the question to grapple with is, is that a lower-profit margin

for ibm versus the legacy? i think it's something that investors need to figure out >> amit, thank you for joining us good to see you. >> thank you so much. treasury yields under pressure today the ten-year fell -- mike has a closer look at that move on bonds, mike. >> sometimes it's helpful to look at where we came from exactly on this ten-year treasury yields. just tremendous ramping, and you've given back most of it today the yield fell below the 200-day average. you have to at least think that's a possible. also i pointed out before, this kind of air pocket in the market where it didn't do a lot in terms of spending much time between, let's say, you know, 1% and 1.2. it's going to have to feel its way, though by some analysis, the move down today did

culminate a bit of this decline in yields, the rally in bonds, got it back to some levels back in the spring. be that as it may, look at treasuries versus high-yield debt it's not necessarily right now showing a tremendous amount of real selling pressure in the high yields itself you see it's flattish the last several months, but this is the price of intermediate term treasuries, which has come up to immediate the price. we have some softenings on the spreads. it's not really setting up an alarm that's telling us something fresh or new about real stress in that market, but absolutely you have to watch it. also, it's a show that there want that much incremental

health, and it probably does ultimately limit equities -- >> that was exactly where i was going to ask, mike, it's not like things could improve significantly on that front, so even a slight worsening, could that be quite a bad delta for equities and sentiments towards them >> i think possibly, but to me it's coincidence you've already had a bit of a haircut, and stocks on high-yield debt have been blasted, so it's not necessarily as if equities are not recognizing what bonds are saying, but absolutely, in terms of the tightening of spreads from here, it just seems like it can't go that much farther, which means we've probably see the peak valuations. the multiple got down below 21 today. >> mike santoli, we'll see you soon you have the india travel warnings level 3 from level 4,

which potential is a hopeful sign. >> all the more baffling >> i was saying as far as the trajectory we're watching, right? >> just slightly >> but the other plus side, maybe this will endirge more vaccinations from those hesitant in the united states, just seeing the numbers rise and seeing media talk about this again, hospitalizations and deaths, a judge in indiana just said iu, the university, can mandate vaccines for students in the fall, so stuff like that is coming together, could be hopeful. when we come back, the dow fell more than 700 points. two top strategists, about where to find opportunity. the ceo of nordstrom, what is he seeing for spending? "closing bell" will be right

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nordstrom mom the retailers reporting today. >> the retail is up 42%. i'm toll the retailer is not looking to go public again today, mr. nordstrom does acknowledge, it's always changing, and staying focused on the consumer is still the best strategy >> overall, we're seeing a continues of opening up. >> people excited just to get back out there

others, there's uncertainty. for us, how do we deal with that we have to be really nimble. it's been? a -- >> they were hard hit, and not shoppers are returning he says labor has certainly been a challenge. the upcoming anniversary sale helps the retailer get focused on the labor force in particular when it comes to inflation, mr. nordstrom says yes, costs will likely show up in the prices consumers pay, but he isn't concerned. sara >> valuable commentary courtney, thank you, very much, with eric nordstrom. the dow closed down more man 2%, making it its worst day of thee,

joining us is scott written, and richard bernstein. gentlemen, good to have you both here what courtney was saying, what nordstrom was telling her, he seeing the reopening continues we're hearing that from a lot of ceo. , nothing was -- >> i was trying trying to give you props. >> my basic pont is there's a lot of bullishness so is the market seeing something that they're not >> i think, for us, we're still trying to play this reopening, trade the sectors that have lagged the last couple months, things like energy, industrials,

financials materials. those are the things we are interested in we've tried to talk to other clients about taking advantage of pullbacks. clearly we've been but for us, we want to continue to pla this, you know you know, we haven't had much of a pullback in a long, long time. it will give us an opportunity, we want to be ready to step in today, bad days, bad weeks, you know, 10% pullback 5%, 10% would be great >> do you think it's an overreaction just last week we were talking about how -- that was the topic of discussion when sara sat down with the treasury secretary last week, and now we're suddenly

talking about growth collapsing. >> everything in the bond market is accentuated, right? so they've effectively cornered the market in treasuries so it's going to be accentuated. so now the stock market is responding with the accentuated, so i think people have to be careful. the backdrop of the fundamentals, you mentioned this, the fundamentals are still improving. that's kind of taken a backseat to the gyration of the bond market i think the reaction will be we're going to hear an awful lot of jawbones from the federal

reserve in the next four to six weeks as they try to reverse the flattening of the curve. i think that's what they're going to hear. i think to scott's point, that kind of jawboning, i think you win it here on the side of the cyclicals. >> you both are kind of similar. which groups in particular, because a lot of them have been hit very hard. does it make you a little worried that the ten-year yield is below 120 if you're going to go there >> it does, sara richard mentioned, you know, the spreads. i mean look at the 2 to 10 curve. it absolutely collapsed like it wasn't even there. so, you know, we think that the curve is going to steepen later, interest rates are going to work their way higher over the next 18 months. you want to be in those areas that will benefit not just from

the unemployment rate that we, but also whether it's business equipment spending, whether it's global recovery, which, let's face it, the world is pulling the rest of the world right now. we won't get there if technology does not participate you've got to have some growth, but these cyclical sectors, look at the second quarter, where are the triple-digit gains so that's where we want to be, and things that defend them, like consumer spending, business spending and internationally it

will get better as well, for the same reasons. >> rich afford, to what extent do you worry about the mega-cap tech stocks, how that could hurt the wider move >> i think you should think of the market as a seesaw the fulcrum is the market. really the question has been up until day, for all practical purposes, the question has been which side of the seesaw are you on the growth side or the cyclical side the market has done well, of course, because there's so much liquidity, but the real question has been which is side are you on that's still the big question. i don't think someone should focus so much on the market, as to which side of the seesaw do you want to be on? given that we pounded the stuffing out of the cyclical side, if you have any kind of

contrarian streak, you should by areaing on the cyclicals realistically, if we're going to get a steeper yield curve, and the fed has to engineer -- this is not an issue. this is not a question they have to engineer a steeper yield curve. if they do, then you're going to see financials perform well. >> scott and richard, thanks for joining us. >> thanks, guys. up next, the ceo of wid many hotels and resorts on why he thinking the covid variant won't her. plus the ceo of globalfoundries igwehs in. we're back in a couple minutes

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shepard smith has our cnbc update the bootleg fire in oregon, it's burned more than 300,000 acres, about the size of the city of los angeles. at least 67 homes, and other buildings destroyed. a big announcement from

canada today it will ease covid restrictions at the border, starting with all 9th, fully vaccinated residents will be allowed into canada with no quarantine, but they will be required to show proof they have tested negative regally for the virus. a gunman killing one person, injuring four others, in tucson. it started in a park where the cops say the gunman shot two paramedics, and then more shooting at a house. he ran into a police car, exchanged fire with the officer who shot him tonight, we kick off our week-long series "crime in america. remote handcuffs, a less painful way, on "the news" right after

jim cramer sara, back to you. >> thank you, shep. >> what's a remote handcuff? >> you'll have to tune in. remote for the police officers, presumably >> less force, i guess the travel sector getting slammed today amid the broad market sell-off. renewed concerns over the covid. windom down about 15%. joining us is the jeff belotti the company has hotels in more than 90 countries. thanks for joining us. what are you seeing in the u.s.? any react in real-time bookings? >> with some great general managers, a develop arer of the year and hotel of the year celebrating their success. this hotel here in pittsburgh was sold out this weekend and

sold out tonight we're seeing incredible demand smith travel research just reported its second quarter up 150%, the last year down 20% to 2019 the segments that our hotels are in, they've been outperforming now for now. smith travel has set it's been up close to three months so very strong demand, people want to travel, people are feeling just as they are on the airlines, safe to travel in the air. feeling very safe to get out and travel in hotels >> so it's really interesting you say that clearly travel-related stocks, the airlines in particular, cruise lines got slammed today, but you're saying on the ground things are still actually

improving, they haven't paused their improvement? >> it all started -- remember, we've been covering the delta variant for a month now. things keep getting better just about each week we look at smith travel i just remind your viewers, if you look back to labor day, not this past -- july 4th, not this past july 4th, but a year ago, there was an up tick in cases. if you look back to labor day a year ago, there was an up tick, yet demand has consistently grown in our industry. we came out of a very strong start. we had the business industry memorial day, more than this industry has ever seen the week ending july 3rd, it was up 6% to 2019. that's the entire industry that's the first week since that's happened since the beginning of the pandemic. people are very comfortable

driving. there's a lot of statisticsout there that people are staying in america. u.s. travel has been talking about the 800 million americans that don't want to let their vacation pay go, that are able to work from home, they can work from anywhere here, at a hotel here in pittsburgh, or the 96 millions americans who travel every year looking for any availability they can possibly find here in the united states are two, i think, significant drivers that are really helping our hotels to cover. >> i know you're hosting this thank you to sas celebration do you mandate your staff to get vacc vaccinated >> absolutely. we strongly, strongly encourage that our staff be vaccinated in the hotels, in all of our corporate offices, and with all of our support team. absolutely

>> geoff, thanks so much for joining us. >> thanks for having us on globalfoundries has been in the news lately. jon fortt just spoke to the ceo. he joins us with some of the key highlights >> they announced plans to add, and also talk ago bit about intel. the world struggles with a chip shortage across industries i spoke to the ceo, who told me he's not too concerned about a boom/bust cycle. >> the reason why i have confidence we're not going to have this burst of capacity and can -- it's very simple. this industry has to double in the next few years. >> i also asked about how

intel's push into contract chip manufacturing business affects globalfoundries, if at all >> well, first and foremost, it's a great recognition of how important foundry is to this world economy. the second thing, from what i understand in their strategy, their focus is going to be on the single-digit -- on the 7/5 nanometer solutions, which is by 30% of the market. it doesn't have any way it competes with us. >> reporter: while we were at it, i finally asked about rumors of intel making a $30 million bid for the company. >> there's flog to that story. as i said, we're focused on our company every day. >> thank you very much, jon

fo fortt. u.s. stocks setting off today, the dow down more than 700 points lower morgan stanley investment management's chief global strategist on whether rebounding covid cas sewill threaten global growth

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>> hey there, sara transports closed down 12% off their high you look at the trucking stocks themselves, j.b. hunt, the largest container shipper closed down 3% ahead of its earnings. remember, containers is the majority of how consumer good imports enter the united states. knight swift falling 3%. big box stores also seeing the impact trucking demand has boom during the first half of the year demand is down a bit since the fourth of july, but that's a seasonal thing there's news that opec will increase production, providing

some hope of relief in the second half. back over to you frank, thanks so much. concern over the delta variant weighing in on investments some countries are imposing new lockdown requirements. thank for joining us, ruchar my first question is when you look across europe or asia, are the only countries imposing strict lockdown measures those with low vaccinate ratings or could that type of action made it to the u.s. as well? >> i looked at that. first there's no strong

relationships where asia is beginning a dramatic increase in caseloads. i think that's been the problem, and something i've written about the last 18 months it's so difficult to predict which nation is doing well in this pandemic. when people ask me that question, my answer is, it depends on the month when you look at the united states, it looks like the best country to be in the world to be now. exactly aier, the opposite was said asia was being shown to us as the model of sick, so this i feel is a moving target where every quarter we have a new winner, a new loser, so i think that as far as the market is concerned, yes yes, this is the proximate cause for the sell-off, but i think the concerns run deeper than just

where obviously the latest surge in the caseload. >> one of your biggest concerns for global growth is china's crackdown on tech. >> yes, that's right it's southbound driven by tech it accounts for a stagger 40% of the chinese economy today. that number has quadrupled over the last decade, so it's a huge part of china's growth story other parts have been laid low by the record levels of debt so my fear is in you crack down too hard on the tech sector, for whatever reasons, political, geopolitical reasons, or even reasons such as wealth and equality, the risk with that approach is that it ends up killing what has been the main

driver of economic growth? china, so that to me is a deeper concern than i would say the pandemic currently the chinese market has been falling the last few weeks and month. not just the last week or so. >> it's really interesting point. ruchir, your other concern - long time because americans have saved so much money, and eventually they're going spend it why do you feel differently. >> the consensus is so strong, we look for what is the flaw in that logic there are two flaws that can i spot here. money, let's look at the past year and how americans have been spending stimulus checks what we find is about a third has been spent the other third has gone to repay debt and the other third has simply been saved.

i think there are some scars maybe from the 2008 global financial crisis which really hit the american households hard, and they're using some of the savings windfall to pay down some of the debt and the other example that i site in the article that i wrote in the financial times is that what you see historically is that when you get such a big windfall, typically the behavior is to save it, not to go out and spend it in a big way. so these assumptions that there is going to be a massive spending boom, yeah we see some spending which has been held back because of all the restrictions, but that is going to surge in some extraordinary way and that's going to completely offset the fiscal year coming. that's not just gone by history. that's my concern in all these very optimistic forecasts. >> against the grain views thank you very much for joins us we appreciate it

>> thanks. stocks getting crushed on wall street today. but netflix was one of the market's few silver linings ahead of earnings report tomorrow find out what to expect when cl"closing bell" comes right ba. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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now to our wall street look ahead.

a slew of big names to report results tomorrow we'll hear from netflix, chipotle, united airlines and interactive brokers looking forward to all of those. netflix in the afternoon during the show mike, my questions are earnings going to be definitive factors if sentiment is similar too today? >> i think they'll be defin for the names but maybe not the overall market particularly interactive brokers will be fun to watch it's the one pure public comp to what robin hood is going to be that's a side story. i don't think we're caught up how the second quarter went for these companies. it's much more about the trajectory of the case rates and whether in fact we're in for some kind of a stall economically very easy to say the market, most parts of the market are starting to get pretty oversold. you probably have close to half of the s&p, if not more is already down 10% so you've kind of had a lot of the medicine been taken by parts

of this market so how that balances out against the fact that we're in a bit of an economic news vacuum for what's going to matter for a little bit, and the bond market is running the show. that's the other part of it. >> i was just looking at the meme tray. it held up welt. up 2.6%. amc was down a percent >> yeah. >> so it's amazing resilience in the face of this turmoil. >> right because it has zero connection to real world economics. and honestly -- >> a massive liquidation on fears. >> no. >> delta variant >> it's a totally idiosyncratic part of the market the meme stocks are like that. we're talking about the archetype trades as well they're not really owned in huge size in portfolios that also own this other stuff that was getting hit today. so that's why you don't see as much of a spillover effect i think that's probably one of the things it's been a bit of an inverse. not even uncorrelated. >> one thing, the dix didn't do too much today. >> no.

>> despite the fact that the canadian, australian, british currencies were moving massively. the euro was kind of settles as was the yen a little bit something to keep an eye on for sure. >> it sort of hung out there, did not really rally, but has rallied recently the yield is going down. >> i think it's oahu whether it's easier policy from europe and china cutting reserve ratio requirements or the fear that's been building on this slowdown there. >> has been some concern at the end rallying >> we are out of time here on "closing bell. thanks for watchinging "fast money" after the short break. new customers get our best deals on all smartphones. that's right. but what if i'm already a customer? oh, no problem. hey, cam...? ah, same deal! yeah, it's kind of our thing. huh, that's a great deal... what if i'm new to at&t? cam, can you...? hey...but what about for existing customers? same deal (breathless) it's the same deal is he ok? it's not complicated.

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whatever you business is facing... let's workflow it. servicenow. tonight on "fast," one of wall street's biggest bulls, and a man who has been dead-right about the direction of the market says today's sell-off is a great setup for a second half rally. tom lee is seeing the next big opportunity for your money plus, we're trading the crude collapse energy stocks taking in today's sell-off should you buy this big pullback and later, the ultimate safety trade burn top technician lays out the best place to hide