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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  July 19, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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let's workflow it. servicenow. tonight on "fast," one of wall street's biggest bulls, and a man who has been dead-right about the direction of the market says today's sell-off is a great setup for a second half rally. tom lee is seeing the next big opportunity for your money plus, we're trading the crude collapse energy stocks taking in today's sell-off should you buy this big pullback and later, the ultimate safety trade burn top technician lays out the best place to hide if you think
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there is more selling ahead. welcome, everyone. we are live. courtney reagan in for melissa lee. the's lineup, guy adami, tim seymour, dan nathan, and jeff mills. we're going to start off with the massive sell-off on wall street it makes the most sense because stocks plunging today. the s&p 500 dropping more than a percent and a half the dow posting the biggest loss of the year. every single s&p sector finishing in the red new fears over rising cases of the delta variant, putting the reopening at risk. investors rushing to safety, sending the yield on the ten-year treasury to the lowest level since february, below 1.2. so let's break down today's brutal sell-off. guy adami, what is your take on the day? what a way to start the week >> yeah, it's interesting. hi, courtney brutal, i understand why you would say brutal i get it worst day we've seen in quite some time. >> actually thought it was pretty orderly
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i think dan would probably act nj that as well. we talked before the show. it was necessary as well the technicians out there, i'm sure jeff and tim have thoughts be, the 4230 level, 50-day moving average bounced off of that for me, each though i didn't anticipate what happened, it makes a lot of sense and i thought it was orderly, and it gives you something to trade against. every time we've seen the vix m -- bigs move to this magnitude, although it seems like an awful move, it was encouraging in washing some of the froth out. >> dan, you have called out there. do you think this is orderly in the vix above 22 and the dow having its worst day of the year >> no doubt. courtney, i know you've been with us a few times over the last couple of weeks i think the panel has been routinely saying the only thing out of order here over the last few weeks has really been stocks, or u.s. stocks in particular and the performance in the level of complacency. here is the good news. obviously they took some cues from the bond market here, the
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ten-year u.s. treasury yield got as low as 1.18 and the last time that yield was that low back in february, the s&p 500 was below 4,000. so to me there is not too much probably more damage associated with the rate decline for stocks then we get into earnings, as we're obviously into earning season right now but really, it's that kind of super cap earnings that we're going to get at the end of the month with the facebook, the microsoft, the google, the amazon, and they are really going to dictate the next 5% in my opinion of this market. if expectations remain high and the stocks haven't come in too hard, then they're likely to sell off no matter what they bring. but if the stocks are down a lot into it, they're likely to bounce on the way out. >> what do you think about all of this, tim i know that mike santoli often tells us corrections are good for the market this is an okay thing to go through from time to time. but if it's because we're worried about the delta variant,
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does that make the situation a little different >> so welcome again, courtney. look, the good news here is we've been here before so the s&p trades back down to the 50 we haven't breached it in fact, we haven't really breached this level, the 50-day moving average on the s&p at least through to the downside since all the way back in february of 2020 you can argue we've had a couple of moments, september and october of last fall were probably the toughest volatility market moments. and we did get through that 50 ultimately really did hold the 100 and traded above here we are again. the good news is we have been here before. in terms of delta variants and the impact on the broader global economy, sure. a lot of concerns. a lot of social concerns, and plenty needs to be discussed about that but look, we're a market show. we're talking about growth dynamics i don't think the economy is ever going to be closed down like it did. jeff mills mentioned that on
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friday i think we have a dynamic here where we priced in a loft pain and as dan said and guy said, the stock market for the last four weeks, five weeks below the surface have been quite painful. the other good news here, and i hate to sound rosy on a day like today, but you really have changed investor positioning and sentiment. if you look at the aaii investor intelligence surveys of really where sentiment is, look, considering we're only a couple percent off of all-time highs on the s&p and sentiments come all the way back to really almost a 20-month average, it's actually pretty good news for equity investors here, that a lot of the fear, the anxiety has been priced in. >> all right, jeff so, talk to me about that, mr. general i was on a beach on friday, so i didn't hear what you had to say about it but if tim is right and if the market thinks that we're not actually going go through massive shutdowns again when it comes to the economy, then why in the world did we sell off today nearly across the board? >> the market was sort of acting
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today like it was a covid is back, duck and cover if you look at what led today, what raised it, rates obviously precipitously lower, stay at home was higher, leave your house was lower. biotech rallied. so today felt like covid is back and everybody needs to pile into those areas of the market that worked all throughout 2020 and i just don't think you want to be running toward that trade right now. we talked a little bit about interest rates and obviously the market has been cueing off of rates for a long time. i think that probably continues to be the case and just from a technical perspective, you look at some of the flows into tlt so people betting on lower rates, getting a little extreme. really the opposite of what we saw a number of months ago and i thought it was interesting, the only unfilled gap in the history of the ten-year treasury yield was filled today at around 121 i think from a technical perspective, you might expect some civility and rates. and if that ends up being the
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case you have rates oversold in an uptrend you get a little bit of a bounce, and that starts to bleed into some equity sectors like financial, materials, energy specifically, which i know we'll talk more about later, all still in an uptrend and all oversold so i think you more want to be looking for opportunity there's than running for what worked in 2020 >> guy, what do you think when it comes to opportunities? nice haircut, by the way >> appreciate that you know, it's amazing what a little pomade can do for you, courtney first of all, say flat-out, i thought banks would continue the rally on the back of the earnings that was incorrect dan pointed it out and karen was somewhat cautious going into earnings. what i'll say in terms of citibank, for example, historically now over the last five or six years, citibanks get 85% of tangible book which is basically 64 d$64. that's what it is. that's a tradeable opportunity some of the banks can maybe compress to levels where they
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make sense if jeff is right, which i think he is going to be in yields in a short-term bottom, i think banks might be really interesting here >> bitcoin was down more than 2 1/2% today >> what do you make of the action there is that an opportunity is this something that has still no fundamental basis it seems to be moving with the market more recently than we've seen, at least initially when this first started to become quite a phenomenon >> right and bulls will tell you that actually its value or reacted to the right things, it reacted to the fed. it reacted to the sense that if the fed was getting a little more hawkish look, right now bitcoin charts are in a very difficult place. and it's only possible for me to assess bitcoin from a technical perspective. right now here and in playing around that 30,000 level, it really looks like the next level is 21,000. so i think you have a case here where i think most bitcoin bulls have sat back and said look, you
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know, maybe a little difficult to look at p & l but this is nothing at least out of the ordinary of what the last five years have looked like and an uptrend when institutional adoption by the way really is i think never been stronger. whether we get some of the regulatory follow-through or not on bitcoin products, i don't know but look, i see price action, understandably appropriately trading with a multiple of 1.5 to 2 times where volatility is more broadly it should. i don't think that means people are running out and jumping out of this trade wholesale at this point. but technicals don't look good >> dan, i know we're going the dig into energy a little later, but that was the worst sector of the day. financials right behind it, though, down about 3%. starting to get some earnings from that group. any opportunity there that you see right now to take advantage of some of this sell-off >> you know, we've been talking about that it appeared that energy equities had been leading the way before crude had really broken here. so to me, they might be down, i
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don't know, 20%, the xle, large integrated down 20%. maybe that's the level to play for a bounce but i'm not so sure that crude oil is done going down, especially when you introduce the concerns about the variant moving around in some parts of the globe where maybe the next leg of growth was kind of expected here. as far as the banks are concerned, you can see a technical bounce if you saw rates start to bounce a little bit. but going into the earnings, i thought a lot of us thought that q2 is as good as it got for 2021, and maybe the fact that rates aren't likely to move precipitously higher above the prior highs in march is likely to keep banks within the trading range. so to me, i'll make one other point. you look at the xl charts, the xle, if there is a whole host of them, they all technically broke the uptrends that had been in place from the year ago lows or at least the lows they were making in november prior to the vaccine news so that technical setup is not particularly good, especially as
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we're in this summer period where we know there tends to be a bit of volatility. so to me, i'm not so sure you want to buy a bounce tomorrow if we tend to bounce after this sort of move i know the s&p held that 50-day moving average but man, in the landscape of moving averages, that's the least interesting to me. talk to me when we get down to the 150, which carter likes or maybe the 200. >> all right we will. we're going the hold you to that and watch the levels we're going break down the sell-off further with tom lee. head of fund strat at global advisers he is also a cnbc contributor. tom, thank you so much for joining us here today. let's just start off with the big picture. what do you make of today, and what's your advice for investors looking to trade tomorrow? >> well, i think today is just a reminder that as much as we want covid to kind of recede from our lives and from the markets, it's still one of the most important dominating drivers and now we're at a seasonal period where covid cases last year started to rise in july
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so in some ways, i think it's seasonal and it's a reason why i think july overall is just a month oft chop and one where no one should try to be a hero. >> so if you shouldn't try to be a hero, what does that mean? what if you have money you want to put to work are you telling people not to do it or are you saying don't sell out of the positions that you have >> i just think july's at least in my 30 years of doing research, have never been great months for people to really make big profits. and i think you guys kind of hit it on the head there is a lot of uncertainty. and the one thing i don't think people should do is think that this is sort of the end of the expansion and the bull market. but yeah, for the next couple of weeks, i think it's tough. july was tough last year, and july has proven to be tough again. and, you know, when markets are strong in the first half, july tends to be pretty choppy. and i think that's playing out pretty textbook. >> so when you're looking at this july compared to last july, when, yes, the pandemic was
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certainly still raging, we did not have available vaccines then are you still as worried now, even though we have vaccines with the delta variant is causing new worry today? does this make sense to you that the market should be selling off because of that? >> i mean, it's certainly clear that markets is rising and the delta variant is evading what we think should be vaccine protection and the data that we've put together that we've put together the turnup with the case last year there is some seasonality, probably because of the air conditioning in the south. ulast year cases rose for eight weeks. the market had an initial wobble which is what we're experiencing
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now an end this the cyclical trade came back on in force. we shouldn't extrapolate and say we've lost the war against covid, but is the market acting into covid case ss in it's not month to be a hero july is typically choppy, and it's a choppy month. >> it's interesting. the commodities leave their associated or correlated equities but we're seeing what i've seen. i'm sure you're seeing this as well some of these energy stocks have gotten obliterated maybe a little more to go on the commodity front. maybe where it's starting to get drag again >> i think the stocks are still going to have a double digit half any sell-off we're seeing is not
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something you have to -- the market has to dig itself out of. but you're absolutely right. in a month when the markets wobble, we have a buyer's strike commodity stocks were leading year to date so they're vulnerable to profit-taking. so it's been an absolute massacre but again, i look at this tightness and especially the oil market favorable for the price of oil capital discipline by the energy companies. so, you know, again, as painful as this sell-off has been, i think they're going to have a strong second half >> tom, thank you for joining us we have going to be on the lookout to see what that second half indeed does hold for us let's go ahead and trade this. jeff, i want to get you back in on the conversation. what do you make about what mr. lee has to say there july just a lousy month, but a double-digit second half >> i certainly think it's possible, right. and the weakness that we've seen, they talked about this on friday the weakness that we've seen today and we're at the index level, it's been going on under
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the surface for some time. it's been choppy for months. if you look at the average in the russell 1000, it's off its recent three-months highs. this is weakness that we're just starting to see at the top of the market and dan mentioned how important text is going to be over the next few weeks i agree because that's really what's been maxing some of the weakness from an index perspective, i would pay attention to those names. but there are opportunities under the surface because you've already seen weakness play out in a lot of other areas of the market just relative to energy, again, i know we'll touch on it more later, but i do think some of the dynamics relative to the price of the commodity will likely work itself out over the next number of weeks i think supply/demand dynamics probably positive for the price and energy equities have moved so dramatically to the downside. i talked about this durning our call earlier today but zero percent of energy stocks are above their 50-day moving average there is definitely opportunity if you look in the right places higher >> dan, i want to bring you in here as jeff pointed out, what you're
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thinking about technology. it was one of the better performing groups that are still down more than 1.4% today. what do you make of technology expounding on those thoughts a bit? >> there is two buckets. we have these super caps, and we know like jeff just said, that we've really helped the broad market really buoy itself as there has been a lot of correction going on underneath the surface. but i will mention this. look at some of the performance of some of these high growth stocks maybe they're recent ipos that we've seen over the last year and a half that had these explosive runs but they had a massive correction off their highs in the late fall or earlier this year they had big, big runs off their main lows. some of them 50% i'll mention one is zoom they just bought a company today or they announced using their cash $15 billion acquisition this company went public about two and a half years ago that $10 billion market cap. i think what's really interesting to see that some of
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these names are now understanding that they're going to use some of this currency that they have that they've been granted by basically like proving their business model during the pandemic. so i think that's a really interesting thing as far as techs concern. we might start to see more m&a >> and we have an earnings alert on ibm shares jumping in the after hours as the company's call gets under way. let's get over to josh lip as he has more >> heading into this print, ibm was up about 10% this year it was down about 10% from its 52-week high and now heading higher here in the after hours. as for the results, on the bottom and the top and a for the forecast, ibm saying it continues to expect revenue growth for the year. i did check in with redbush. he covers the name he has called this in his opinion a mixed performance. cloud growth decelerating sequentially but on a positive side, he said red had growth accelerating. he said improvements in services
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and margins, he maintains a neutral rating on the stock. ibm continues to progress. the overall spend environment he says continues improving industries he notes are getting back on track. ibm is on track, he says, to achieve its financial expectations for year. there have been changes like jim whitehurst stepping down from his role but jim he says remains a strong believer in ibm. and we understand his desire to now become an investor back to you. >> thank you very much, josh let's trade this one tim, what do you make here of course ibm has not been one of the highest performing tech names as of late we know microsoft has outperrmed it. oracle as well but does that mean there is opportunity here, or is it time to sit back and wait >> well, first of all, on the red hat former ceo departure, i don't like that news i don't like the deceleration in growth and even though i think that was an important acquisition to get them moving in the right direction. so 11 acquisitions this year, eight more last year
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it's a company trying to tuck in route whatever they can. and revenue growth still very stagnant i don't think it's cheap we could have been having this kind of a conversation about ibm two years ago. possibly three years ago it's hard to be overly negative with the direction the company has taken, and i think they're in the right businesses and moving in the right directions and leveraging the overall network effect of their enterprise client base but not chasing that one here, especially with the pullback in broader tech, there is better places to be >> general mills, big blue going to make some big green or not so much >> yes, tim and i are on om it is sides i was reasonably pleased with the term to revenue eps margins. they're paying down debt, which i like it's definitely in this show me phase for investors. i think this quarter was probably good enough i think you see the stock up in after hours. probably reflective of that. did mention the high dividend yield.
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a little bit of a margin of safety and i really do think they're committed to this growth whether it's the spinout or the blue tab acquisition that they just announced they have a lot going on and they also have a reasonably strong free cash flow position so they'll be able to invest back in some of the areas, the market that i think are going to be able to driver growth for them 3,000 hyper cloud clients now, that continues to be a positive for the company. so i still think you can take a chance on the stock here i like being on the value side of technology. >> all right ibm shares are higher after hours as that conference call continues. coming up, we are trading the crude collapse oil hits worst day since octobe. there buying opportunity and the best looking chart in the market one top technician lays out the safrt trt. n'gonywhere. there is a let more "fast money" right after this
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sitting at mid $66 energy stocks following suit some big names falling hard. all deep in the red. bun of our traders sees some opportunity in this pullback jeff, what are you looking at? make your case here? >> first of all, i think the move in the commodity price may be a little bit overdone really hard to call in the very short-term but i was reading some analysis. you look at the market in q 3, probably short about 3 million barrels a day, even with the added supply from opec plus. that gap probably grows widener the fourth quarter you have that additional supply, but it's not particularly bearish relative to the current supply/demand dynamics the war with opec certainly didn't materialize i think the price of the commodity ultimately stabilized. we mentioned this earlier. stocks have actually moved ahead of the drop in the commodity i look at a stock like eog and i
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see an opportunity, down some 20%. this is a company that's generally better positioned versus peers for a lower oil price environment. i don't know if it's an all-time low, butit's pretty close to i in terms of price-to-earnings multiple i think generally speaking, if you're talking about holding it for a somewhat longer period of time, maybe 12 months or so, this is a reasonable entry point for some of the names that have gotten beat up >> you're getting eog on sale if you want it here, down about 5%. guy, what do you make of some of the names in the energy space? if the economy is going to recover, but not at a pace we've seen most recently, a recovery is a recovery, right and we need oil to move that economy forward, both here in the united states and around the world. so could there be a case to make for why energy makes sense as an investment here? >> yeah, i think so. that's why i want to know tom lee's thoughts before we head to this block, because he sort of shares some of the thoughts i
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do i didn't think these stocks would sell off nearly to the magnitude they have. but with that said, here we are. halliburton to me is really fascinating. they report tomorrow morning i believe before the bell. i mentioned it because bank of america today put them on their u.s. 1 list, schlumberger. if you look, massive double top at 25 bucks from december 2019 to the june high traded down to 19. i think that's enough where halliburton could be really interesting. let them report earnings, see what they say. but for just a catch-up trade, i think hal makes a lot of sense. >> down 3.5% today expand on your thoughts here about the energy trade >> well, listen, if you were just looking at any one of these inflation inputs that people have been screaming about for the last couple of months that had kind of ripped higher earlier in the year, but have come off pretty dramatically, it made perfect sense that crude oil might do the same. and the confluence of events with the opec plus, volatility around whether they were going
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to reach a deal or not, it all kind of coincided now with this variant, really becoming a concern for some investors here, or at least about the pace of second half growth if you look at crude oil, and jeff just said something really interesting that he expects it to find a home and consolidate, go back and look in march. crude was at a high. i think it got back to the high 60s. it sold off maybe 15%. and it actually had a high single digit down day. a big down day and then it consolidated we might be in the throes of that too i know that guy and timothy that crude ultimately works higher here and this might just be one of those kind of mid cycle recovery palpitations that we're seeing i don't -- i don't have any issues with the fact that we have this correction a lot of people were scratching their heads over the last two months watching crude oil tick up every day just a little bit and saying how can this be so orderly. so the fact is, you know the drill. it's elevator up -- escalator
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up, elevator down. that's what we had right here. >> got it. thank you, gentlemen coming up next, the ultimate safety trade one top technician lays out where he thinks you can hide if there is more selling ahead. and later, we're working down what worked today, and why one of our traders says buyer beware you're watchg asin"ft money" on cnbc we're back right after this. we've all felt this gap. the distance between what is, and what could be. while he's tapping into his passion, the u.s. bank mobile app can help you tap your way to your savings goals. without missing a beat. so, you can feed his passion. ear plugs not included. ♪♪ u.s. bank. we'll get there together.
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welcome back to "fast money. stocks plummeting on wall street today. the dow handing in its worst day of the year, falling more than 700 points and check out the ten-year
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yield, 1.19% just two weeks ago, your next guest said 1 1/4% was the key to watch for a yield. now that we have crashed below that, where are we headed from here let's go off the charts with chris barone take it away >> going through 125 is certainly a psychological grade of what people perceive to be a very important level but let's keep things in perspective. the yield peaked at 175 in march. they were something like 50, 60 basis points at this point last summer that 110 to 112 range is the 50% mid point between those two levels so i think it's early to say this has been some apocalyptic breakdown here i do suspect you'll ultimately bottom somewhere in the 110, 112 zone we have seen sentiment shift dramatically from inflation fears a month ago to growth fears, covid fears right now i think the sentiment on the
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street is changing that's helpful and ultimately putting a low on yields. as far as what this means for equities, i want to show you an important slide. it's something we've been talking about in our work of over really the last month or two that the correction that we saw in equities today really can be traced back many weeks or many months ago. the ravage russell one thousand stock is already down about 10% from the highs so there has been weakness under the surface for a while. industrials down over something like 10. the average bank stock is down about 10 as well if you go to even some of the weaker pockets of this market, the average materials stock down about 13 average discretionary stock down about the same average energy down about 16 this correction is not one-day old. a lot of these groups, the average issue really peaked about two months or so ago so if we go to some context of the broader, several have mentioned it guy, you talked about it
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dan, you talked about it the 50-day moving average has been big support along the way i'm not convinced it's going to ultimately hold up through this summer about 38.95. it's adding about five points a day. i do think ultimately the s&p and will meet somewhere around 4,000 over the next month or two. what do we want to own in that environment? this is almost going to sound silly, but i think the best defense here may actually be some offense the pockets of the market that have already corrected are frankly pretty oversold under the surface. i want to show you the industrials. this is the xli. and that bottom panel are the flows into and out of the xli. you've really seen complete liquidation already over the last several months. huge outflows from xli the correction here has already happened i think if we get another leg lower in the broader market, it's the big tech way to get you there. it's the offensive cyclicals
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like industrials that may actually prove to be defensive at this time around. >> thank you very much, chris, for breaking that down move on the ten-year, getting a lot of attention today let's trade it tim, what do you make of the moves today and what the bond market is telling us >> well, i mean, first of all, here is a psa for when yields eventually get to 175 or god forbid, 2% this is a good thing it's not a reason to jump out of windows. it's extraordinary that that's alsowhere we were. but so look, if chris is right, 112 to 115 or maybe even here jeff brings up carter's note either way, who's been most high will sensitive to the move in rates? it's been banks. we come through an earnings period where people forget the credit quality in the banking sector is as good as it's been in a long, long time i'm not going to say in my lifetime, but who knows? and also, what the banks have also gone through in terms of
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their ability to pass capital standard tests and give more back to investors. also just a trend we've seen in bank earnings over the last four or five years, which is that they don't trade well when they get the earnings announcements and as you start to sort through here, i think you're going start to see a lot of the banks start to rally after all this pain in banks, exactly chris's theme, some of the places that play offense are financials industrials, i'm not sure i'm ready togo there, because i think there is still going to be a lot more concern around growth i don't think the delta variant concerns go away for another four to six weeks. i think banks have priced in a lot of pain. you have reaffirmation of credit quality and their capital markets plans. >> guy, what do you make of the charts that mr. verrone brought us >> it's a ten-year, which is fascinating. chris was on a thursday. he said the ten-year was probably going to trade down to 1 and a quarter, hold and bounce that's exactly what happened if you do remember, traded down to 125 two trading days later, trading yield to 141 i didn't see this move down to
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119 coming i don't think chris necessarily did either but what he said then holds true now. you're still talk about an upward sloping moving average, which typically bodes pretty well if you think rates are going to go higher, which i do didn't see this one coming but i do think rates go higher from here. >> well, coming up, the green arrows in today's sea of red yeah, there were some. we'll break down the breakouts and how to trade them. plus, shopping for opportunity. the one retail name options traders have had their eye on in today's sell-off we'll bring to it you when "fast moy"etnsne rur you. the company we've trusted to keep us working remotely, is the same company we'll trust to bring us back together. cisco. the bridge to possible.
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welcome back to "fast money. markets in sell-off mode today but take a look at some of the trades that worked moderna, peloton, nvidia, docusign, they're all showing green in today's sea of red. but tim, you say the bounce in these stay-at-home plays might be a fake. why? >> i think the fundamentals for stay at home stocks are coming out of stock in very good shape, like a restoration hardware, by the way in the last couple of months have added to the
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membership fee, are now banging you for $250 on delivery there is different ways to raise the margin in the business i think that's good news i like williams sonoma i don't like the pelotons. i don't like the zooms i don't like high multiple tech that i still think in the environment we're in will come under some pressure. so the instinct on day like today is to go back into some of those trades if you think it's kind of game back on and it's really take out the old playbook it's not and in fact, the market is to me starting to assess where companies that go back to a normalized earnings profile and where they are and the mulligan of '21 is over and in fact it works to the upside too in other words, those companies that actually had such extraordinary earns a year ago and even into '21 are one that's an lists and most importantly investors should not be given that same comp comparison. >> dan >> i think tim is right about a
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lot of those work from home ones but there is one that caught my eye today with all this delta variant news you saw the airlines getting absolutely destroyed, especially the ones that rely on some of those long haul flights and some business travel, united was down like 5.5% today, down 30% from its recent highs here is a name that was green in this take, a recent ipo from a merger wheels up trading up a couple of percent today. this one is really interesting tim just mentioned those normalized comps in 2020, i read today that wheels up sales were up 80% year-over-year in q1, they were up 68%. so when you think about all these variants, and you heard bill ackman this morning on cnbc say he is getting out to it, out and about, right, i think business travel is here to stay in america, and these businesses are going to find other ways to do it if it's not going to be commercial so i think wheels up could be a pretty interesting way to do that and the one last point primarily domestic here. i think 90% of their sales are
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domestic so i bought some of that today i think that could be an interesting one in this whole space. >> jeff, what do you make of some of these green names today? is it a head fake? is it here to stay >> i'm with tim. i just think the market has some muscle memory relative to what worked last year when fears of covid start to perk up again i just don't think, like i said early that it's going to be the prevailing driver. if i'm looking at any screen today and seeing what was green, i'm most interested in the builders, because i think conceivably, you can have an environment where rates start to drift a little higher, where the growth narrative returns, and builders still do pretty well. i mentioned dhi last week, back down to 7 1/2 times four still looking pretty good there. i think you have an opportunity after 15 to 20% sell-off in a lot of these names of the green on my screen today, i would have focused in areas like that versus these pure covid stay-at-home plays >> some of the meme stocks actually held up well todaytoo coming up, retail under
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pressure today but options traders are betting the worst could be over for this trade. we're going break down that action and later, we're setting you up for the week ahead. we've got four days left hour our traders are positioned following today's big drop stick with us. there is much more "fast money" right after this miss a moment of "fast"? foowonheo.ny time t g ll the "fast money" podcast. digital transformation has failed to take off. because it hasn't removed the endless mundane work we all hate. ♪ ♪ ♪ automation can solve that by taking on repetitive tasks for us. unleash your potential. uipath. reboot work. ♪♪ ♪♪
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welcome back to "fast money. retail under pressure in today's sell-off with the dp rt retail etf falling about 1% but check out nordstrom. that stock is falling nearly 3.5 today. it is now down 13% in just the last week. i just spoke with the nordstrom ceo and asked him about the rising risks of the delta variant. here is what eric in order st nordstrom had to say >> overall, we're seeing a continuing of opening up, of people excited to just get back out there. and at particular stores store traffic has been rebounding in a really
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encouraging way. others, there is uncertainty for us, how do we deal with that we focus on our customers. but we have to be really nimble. we have to respond what customers are looking for. today it has been a positive direction. >> nordstrom also seeing a lot of option in the actions pits today. let's get to mike khouw with more on that mike, what are you seeing? >> yeah, so we actually saw a tremendous amount of options activity across the retail space. nordstrom was certainly one of them we also saw that in gap stores, kohl's, targets, macy's, all of these were seeing a lot of activity nordstrom's saw a big put sale on 2.4 times the daily options volume but that put is more of a bullish. some people are expressing a great deal of distress, willing to get long on the stock at a lower level and of course targeting earnings, which are going to be coming up on august 19th there you saw somebody buying
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3,000 of the august spreads. so that also expressing a bullish outlook going into earnings, trying to take advantage of today's weakness and implied volatility to try to position themselves for a potential rebound. >> mike, thank you very much let's kick this around in trading. guy, i want to go to you >> $31 is a really interesting level. you'll remember, courtney, i think it was december when nordstrom said the huge move from 14 to 32 pretty much in a straight line. since then we've been going sideways to slightly higher. if you look at retail, one name we've talked about pretty consistently for the last two years, dollar gen today was pretty much positive all day long on what was obviously an awful take we've talked about the entire show i think dollar gen is interesting for a breakout i like mike's play in the nordstrom options. >> interesting stuff you talk about the price option in order strom remember in 2018 the company said that $50 a share was too low to take the company private. 31 today
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for more "options action," be sure to tune in to the full show friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time well, still ahead, we're setting you up for tomorrow's trading session. how are traders positioned following today's big sell-off we're back right after this with the answers. it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya. ah, they're getting so smart. choose the app that fits your investing style. ♪♪
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welcome back here is a sneak peek at the cramer can jim's cracking open his playbook following the dow's worst day of the year you're going to catch that at the top of the hour on "mad money. let's get you set up for the rest of the week following today's big sell-off let's check out the huge slate of earnings on deck. we've hardly talked about earnings, but we've got chipotle, united airlines, coca-cola, intel, snapchat, and twitter among those all set to report plus, it's a big week for the housing trade. we'll get fresh data, housing starts, new mortgage apps and existing home sales all over the next few days. following today's pullback, how are you guys all positioned for the week to come tim, we'll start with you. you've got a lot to work with here
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>> you do. in terms of the macro, i'm watching the dollar also which is a double bottom it's been working on as long as you continue to see the dollar moving higher and possibly pushing through this 93 1/4 level, i think it's going to be tough for a significant part of the cyclical equity. the housing numbers i think are very important i think you've got some oil and inventory numbers also that will be supplementary information for the supply side, but also the demand side. i think on the earnings side, semiconductors were flat today i think intel's numbers, while intel is a story of essentially committing and investing in the business and foundry and all of the new kind of initiatives that they're bringing forth again, i think you have to look and hear what they're saying in terms of demand cycles. and for chips, it's more about a supply in disruption >> jeff, what's your setup going into tomorrow? >> so first of all, this answer people dok don't like, even
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though it's the right answer i'm going remind myself that we're still up 13% year to date, still up 130% over the last 12 months to invoke tom lee from earlier, don't be a hero. what we're watching, rates, rates, rates i know we said it 100 times during the show. at these technical levels, how they respond in the coming weeks is going to be really important and telling for all sorts of things. >> i think perspective important for all of us in many situations dan, what is your position going into tomorrow and the rest of the week frankly >> so we had this late afternoon rally. it was really the last half an hour of the day it looked like the s&p might make new lows at 3:00, and they closed well off of them. i'd love to see a little bit of green on the opening, and then maybe a flush out. if you're optimistic about the second half, and i think tom said double-digit returns in the second half, you want to see a bit of a washout i don't think we're too oversold just yet to me, i'd love to see an up opening tomorrow and maybe lower lows and at least down 1%. >> guy, your take?
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>> i think rates are right, but add one more voice to this crude, you're looking for a day where the commodity, the crude commodity goes lower, but the underlying equities actually go higher we haven't seen that for a while. i think you might see it this week if you do, i think that will give you the all clear to get long these energy stocks for a trade. me> coming up next, it's already ti for your final trades we'll be right back. c'mon caleb, you got this! and if you don't, there are other options! umpire: ball! good eye! good eye!
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after the dow's worst day of the year, i'll tell you how to position your poysition watch our listen live on the cnbc app it's time for the final trades let's go around the horn tim, we're starting with you >> thanks for joining us, courtney one of guy adami's favorite songs from the '70s was "billy don't be a hero" by paper and lace if you're picking walmart, expanding multiple,i like walmart. >> dan >> listen, there has been a lot of criticisms of some of these new issuances via spac there is very few good stories in business travel right now >> mr. mills >> a lesser known name for you here, ptc inc. it's technology, but it's internet of things, augmented
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reality, really in the industrial and manufacturing space. been consolidating for about six months i think it's about to resume higher >> lesser known names are fun. and guy adami, take us home. >> little known fact tim's band none the wiser covers billy don't be a hero. fed ex, traded well today, courtney. >> thanks for watching "fast money. "mad money" starts right now money. i'm here to level the playing field. there's always a bull market center "mad money" starts now. >> hey, i'm cramer, welcome to mad money, welcome to my job not just to entertain, but educate and teach. call me 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me

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