get returns on, but baba is a name for the portfolio we have a 275 price target on it stick with it. >> okay, okay. i got to get to the others farmer jim >> sorry >> cleveland cliffs. read the news on cleveland-cliffs that's it. >> pete? >> twitter twitter's going higher >> joe >> garmin. >> does it for us. "the exchange"is now >> thank you very, very much, scott. hi, everybody. here's what's ahead. we have an hour to go before the fed's rate decision and it's about the two t's, transitory and tapering we have full fed coverage on every angle of this today. we're going to talk timing, yields, the wage debate. we'll even discuss powell's future we'll speak exclusively with the ceo of pfizer about the big profits, forecast for future sales and the next wave of covid. are booster shots next

two best performing tech stocks, facebook but also paypal we will delve into it, but we start with the markets at this hour we've got continued q2 earnings and the federal reserve like you mentioned in focus today. but markets remain mixed as you can see across the board with only the nasdaq in the green they're still not far from the earlier highs we saw this week investor optimism is tapered right now. 120 billion per month asset purchase plan, and keep in mind powell, jay powell, said june was when they started talking about talking about the possibility. so, we wait for what the end of july holds with that, u.s. treasury yields on the rise. you can see right here that the 10-year just down 2.48%, but hovering today at 1.35 it's the tech sector we're going to talk about because it's a relative outperformer largely thanks to chip stocks and the

biggest gainers. and that's after revenue, earnings and outlook topped expectations boeing surging today after a surprise profit for the second quarter. this is interesting. not one of the 33 analysts covered in the company actually predicted a profit for the aerospace company. and although mcdonald's beat wall street's second quarter expectations, shares are down after the ceo warned of ongoing staff hurdles. but sales were up, kelly, thanks to a new chicken sandwich and kp-bts male promotion. >> christina, thank you very much let's turn to pfizer, which just beat earnings expectations and raised the four year forecast these results are pushing pfizer shares higher. the stock is up 11% in july and it's on pace for the fifth straight month of gains. at the same time, the efficacy of pfizer's covid vaccine drops

to 84% after six months. for the latest on all of this news today, let's bring in me terrell. >> let's start with the second quarter. pfizer posting a beat and a raise for the quarter, driven by the massive covid-19 vaccine in revenue there. but it also grew the underlying business 10% operationally in the second quarter the forecast going way up for the covid-19 vaccine for 2021, now up to $33.5 billion, based on 2.1 billion doses contracted. and they're going to make 3 billion for the total year this year that could go higher company providing updates for the vaccine for kids, expecting data by the end of september down to age 5, showing that a third dose of the original vaccine boosts antibody levels and an oral pill it plans to have data for by the end of the year let's bring in albert boar la to talk about all of this and more. albert, thanks for being with

us i want to start with some of the data you mentioned on the call about seeing the immunity wane after six months with the covid vaccine. i think you mentioned that it not only wanes against disease in general but also against severe disease so, once you start to get six to eight months out, the protection against hospitalization starts to go down into the 90%, even the 80% range. is that what you're seeing is that the basis for your conversations with the u.s. government and others about a need for a booster >> thank you no, the basis is this data plus many endpoints because these are important decisions. all the regulatory and health authorities, they want to have there is waning of the efficacy as we bring the data from the main study that was from the original virus, not the delta variant. and it was the first two moss

was 97%, the second two months was 90% and four to six months was approximately 84%. we have seen also data from israel that there is a waning of immunity and that starts impacting what used to be 100% against hospitalization how at the six-month period is becoming low 90s and middle to high 80s but the good news is that we are very, very confident that a third dose, a booster, will take up the immune response to levels that will be enough to protect against the delta variant. and we are about -- in two weeks approximately -- my mid of august, we will submit the data to the fda and hopefully we will get approval and once those data are approved, the cdc will make

their own decisions. >> i'm wondering about those interactions that you've had with u.s. health officials because when pfizer said it was planning to apply for emergency use authorization for the booster dose, you got that immediate statement from the fda and cdc saying, hold on, we don't need a booster right now do you get the sense that u.s. health officials, the cdc, the fda, others who are making these decisions, are taking the data that you're giving them seriously and are going to act in order to protect people before immunity against severe disease wanes to a significant point? >> i have no doubt about it. take the data very seriously we have subsequent to this, we have a lot of meetings and we presented to them data they have other data, and they take it very serious >> albert, it's kelly here is this normal for the sort of efficacy to drop the way you're

describing after four to six months time? could you compare that, for instance, to something like the flu vaccine? and what should we expect the booster shot to do does it extend the efficacy strongly for a couple of months and also taper off for another six months what is your expectation >> it is not uncommon. i don't think it's happening at once because every year we have a different variant but also on the other hand in the flu we have very, very low levels of efficacy it is dependent on the year. but it's very common that you will have dose schedules with vaccines it's very, very common it's happening with many vaccines >> albert, we've seen the positive data you've shown both with the third booster against delta, but we know you're also making sure that you have a delta-targeted vaccine candidate ready in case we need one.

what would be the trigger for pfizer deciding okay, we've got to switch production over to the vaccine covering delta or a concerning variant that pops up in the future, heaven forbid >> the data and collaboration with health care authorities what we do is it is when we understand the variant may present concerns we don't take any risks. we start immediately working on developing a new specific vaccine for this variant we did that for the better variant. this is the south african one. actually it is about to be completed, and we will submit data to the fda for the new vaccine, which will be a south african vaccine. we don't need it we understood during the data that the third dose of the same vaccine would protect very well against the south african variant. and again we realize that in south africa with the two dose of this vaccine in the first

month. we do the same now with delta. we are preparing and we are already one-third into this wave of a specific delta and delta plus variant vaccine it's very likely we will not need it. but we will come we'll develop the vaccine, and we'll put it on ourselves. but it's so important, there are so many things at stake with the public health that we cannot take chance. so, we just do it. and if something we miss and we realize that biology was complicated and we needed one, we don't have to wait three months to get it >> albert, one more question from the covid trends we're seeing generally a lot on wall street are focused on the uk and watching this curve in what's happening with the case count where it seems it's coming off the boil a little bit can you explain why that's happening, what's contributing to this turn around, what it might tell us about the way that delta can be continued to trend in the u.s.? >> i do not know i do not know.

what i think is we see in the uk different results against data from our vaccine than in israel. and the difference is also that there is different time intervals. so, if you see the same result of the same period of time, they are impressively aligned so, the data are pointed to the same direction they spread the second doses they didn't do the second dose 21 days after the first. they did after months. so, they have -- the majority of the people have the second doses in the one to three months period this is why they see a less reduction. israel was very successful in implementing their strategy, and they did it with 21 days so, the majority of the people, so they're already six or seven months from them so, this makes the difference with the results >> that's interesting, albert. you know, you gave a big outline

of what you're most excited about in your pipeline on your conference call today. and one of the things you mentioned was your covid antiviral drug you're working on this would be an oirl pill and you're combining it with another pill to prevent severe disease to people just diagnosed with covid. how optimistic are you that this pill will work against kocovid? >> you know, science is unpredictable many times the elements are there the viral activity pre-clinical in animals is very strong. on the other hand the concentration of this new medicine also is very strong so, we know that the drug will defeat the virus and we know it

kills the virus. but we feeneed to prove that wi study that is happening right now. again, just in case, i approve -- and i said that today in the earnings call -- $1 billion investment a few days back, which means that we are going full speed with all trials in parallel for this antiviral we will run four, i think, studying originally. and we are managing at risk. we made commitments that we will pay all the suppliers so, they are providing now raw materials. we are building the commitments in world manufacturing hopefully it will be successful for the world. the 1 billion is not the big consideration, but having an effective tool is very important. >> albert, i also want to ask you just one last question about the delta variant not on all of your vaccine plans and your drug

development plans but on the business of pfizer is the spread of delta changing anything pfizer's doing in terms of decision making, bringing employees back into the office altogether, for example? is it changing any of your strategy >> not so far. but always our strategies are flexible and they are based on the health conditions of the neighborhoods, of the communities. so, it's going to be very different, for example, something in france than in italy. and that will be different based on what the situation controlling the disease there. the same is happening in the offices in the west or the midwest. so, we constantly monitor the situation. and i think there is a little extra measure. >> all right very good. thank you for all your work on this as always pfizer moving toward session highs up almost 4% at the

moment we are also less than an hour away from the fed's latest rate decision and we have a special fed edition of rapid fire, inflation, yields, rates we're going to ask the panelists if they think jay powell is in jeopardy of losing his job we're going to get views on the market and crypto and if delta poses a back to work threat. stay with us >> announcer: this is "the exchange" on cnbc.

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welcome back to "the exchange." we're hearing progress on the bipartisan infrastructure bill a lot of movement in the past couple hours what's going on eamon? >> progress means there's a deal on capitol hill. that's what senator ron portman said just a short time ago to reporters in the capitol hallway, saying negotiators have reached agreement on all the major issues they were hashing out, including one sticking point on transportation. and the question there was how much spending was going to go to rural areas versus urban areas, portman saying they were able to work that out. and democrats accepted the republican proposal there. what we don't know is anything about what's in this bill, as they're constituting it right now. we know that the lawmakers are going to be getting briefed throughout the course of the afternoon. this is a massive proposed

spending package, and portman says this is going to be really good for the economy here's how he explained this >> this is going to add to the supply side of the economy, not the demand side, to increase jobs, provide funding over time, five, ten, 15 years. it helps make the economy more efficient, more productive therefore it will result in more revenue comes in to the federal coffers. >> so, kelly they say they can begin the process of voting, and there's a long process here this evening. they're going to need ten republican votes in order to pass this thing, not clear they have those ten votes in the bag. this is not a done deal but maybe the beginning of a potentially done deal. >> washington speak, eamon, thank you very, very much. amon javers for us reporting another record quarter with $1.2 billion in net revenue, also upped guidance on wealth management trends

joining me is staples ceo. can i ask if there's anything you would oppose in the infrastructure deal that's coming together? i would guess the major stumbling point because i don't think anybody's against infrastructure, would simply be the cost >> in this case, it's investment so, i'm encouraged to read about this it's roads, broadband, bridges this is infrastructure that we need to compete. so, i encourage them to get it done >> all right let me ask you then sort of with that out of the way about some of the other macro trends we have going on here infrastructure would be macro positive the fed decision, which looks like any kind of tightening is going to be delayed because of what's going on with delta you think that's about right that those two major things are tail winds for market getting through the economy? >> i do. i don't expect the fed to say, you know, to say anything or

even signal any tightening i'm not saying that the right thing. i'm just saying that's what i expect them odo. there is, in my opinion, the inflation and all this transitory talk about inflation is not what i see. we've been worried about inflation for a long time. but today jobs and small businesses trying to compete with the unemployment, there's some real, what i think are more permanent cost increase that's going to come through prices at some point the fed is going to act on that and when they do, it's going to be a difficult reckoning for the market >> let's take stiffel as an example here tell me if i'm right or wrong on this, if your employees are becoming more expensive, if they have more bargaining power, if there's labor shortage, whatever you call that. how does the company grapple with that? does that mean because you have

record revenues people get what they're asking or you can pass it along or trim the work force? what does that look like in practice for you >> we're a human capital business and we're much more tied to economic activity. and we're a variable comp firm so, our conversation moves generally up and down with the activity i think it's more for businesses that have fedexedixed costs, restaurants, small businesses competing to pay significantly more than they did a year ago. and those costs will be refl reflected in prices. >> i think what's going on at walmart is really interesting. you see these headlines about paying for college tuition you go, that's an incredible perk, an incredible incentive they can offer, an undeniable positive for a company huge turn around from ten years ago.

but they can offer that. and as we know, the mom and pop business in town, or whatever, probably can't so, is that kind of the widening divide you're talking about, the people who are left behind in this >> well, left behind in that it's small businesses, and you're right walmart, mcdonald's, starbucks, i think, have the scale to be able to deal with increased labor cost the average small business is going to struggle with this a lot more and it's an issue for small businesses just ask anyone. i have a lot of friends that own restaurants and small businesses that have significant complaints about just even getting people to come to work, let alone what they have to pay them. >> let me end with a parting thought, if you will, on the economy and inflation. do you have any warnings about what's going on here or do you think the trends overall look pretty good, albeit the new uncertainty around what's going to go on around the delta variant?

>> well, i think the market is highly valued. you look at trailing 10-year operating earnings and we're at almost 34 times. and i think that's occurred twice, 1928 being one of them and 1998 being another and so there's a lot of maybe good news in this market i think a lot of the market takes the rebound from covid as sustainable. and it's making the market vulnerable and market would look not favorably on the fed recognizing they can't pump $120 billion a month into this economy indefinitely there will be a tightening i do think inflation is a higher risk than as i said, i lived in the '70s and they said inflation was transitory it was transitory for, i think, about nine years so, that's a risk to the market. >> it's interesting to hear

somebody in the wealth management business saying there are risks in the market. shouldn't you be telling people this is a fine time to have exposure and get in. >> well, i might be talking my own book, but my real book is giving good advice to our clients. and that doesn't mean just, you know, man the torpedos, full speed ahead. i think you have to have caution here that's what we get paid to do is give good advice >> appreciate it, top of the hour, he is the ceo of stiffel >> key terms like transitory, tapering and delta, which ones are most important we'll discuss. but paypal is reporting earnings tonight and we'll speak to one of the most bullish analysts on the street about the fintech giant. we're back in a moment or is that the damp weight of self-awareness

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coming up it's a very special fed edition of rapid fire, about half an hour to go until the fed's latest decision. we will tackle the timeline, one area that won't be transitory and powell's own future. it's all coming up in just a moment

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you know ,you have to keep an eye on them. you got to let them explore and figure things out for themselves. so hurry up (screams) they're not gonna stay this way forever. kick off your kidifornia vacation at visitcalifornia.com it's fed day and we're just minutes away from the rate decision followed by chairman jay powell's news conference let's bring in our panelists, michael shoe bacher, and steven widing welcome to everybody

let's get right through this we're going to begin with the taper talk as everybody tries to predict when the fed might back off asset protections and talk about it, most people think a taper announcement is coming toward the end of the year, around november with purchases reduced at the beginning of 2022 and the first hike coming in late 2022 michael, is that your own timeline >> that's pretty fair, kelly i think it's interesting to consider some of the recross examinations around that scenario too maybe the fed tapers a little bit sooner, but pretty unlikely. we're more or less on board with that scenario. we push it back to call it mid 33 not late 22 by and large not terribly different. >> you see a little bit more toward the tightening side lately people were wondering if delta would put the risks to them delaying a little bit tell me what your own forecast is here and what are you going to be listening for next hour? >> i agree november is my best guess as far as the announcement

of the tapering process. i think they started in december it doesn't make sense to say in november we met the test but now we're going to wait another two months so, i think they spread in december and i agree that i would say more likely in 2023. i think they want to separate the two. they've worked so hard since 2013 for this connect tapering to make sure the market does not extrapolate from one to another. i think they'll take a little bit of a pause to assess >> steve, what are the risks going into this meeting and what's your own timeline look like >> i think the timeline is a place holder we've had probably 7% gdp growth if the fed could have announced at least a time frame for tapering earlier, this delta variant risk in the united states, the bond market has understood it. i don't think that the public

entirely understands that it's not just over there in india or the uk and that particular risk has got to keep the fed just waiting a bit longer so, that's really the issue here it could be quite material for fully reopening the economy and the time frame for that. so, when we know how long it lasts, lasted three months in india, then we can go back and firm up when the federal reserve can do its magic >> related to that, let me ask each of you where you think the 10-year is going steve, you think the 10-year has understood this. i would presume you think it's going to stay at a low level >> i think the one and a half to two should be the range of where we can see the sides of getting through this that really is it. we think the vaccinated population will have less effect even if there are break through cases. the economy has excess demand. it's not poised for another collapse but just setting things back and tightening later into an economic recovery does not get

you, again, as far up on rates as we might have thought before. >> 1.5% to 2% in the way you see things do you think 1.25 makes sense right now? >> no, i think that's as dovish of a fed scenario we can imagine. i would argue yields have probably -- we've seen the low end yields i've been at 2% since the end of the year i'm still there. i acknowledge delta is a risk. if we do see a wave of infections by the fall, by november or december that should be behind us and we'll sort of sort out the booster shots and the vaccination in children, and that will bring us that much closer to herd immunity and markets will be very much focused on 2022. so, i think by the end of the year we'll sort of sort out all the delta-related for the market >> annette is at 2%. steve is at 1.5% to 2% michael schumacher, the only one

to think the rate may be dune here >> i have to disappoint on that one. >> no disappointment i think everyone is scratching their heads saying no one in the world thinks this -- maybe a few outliers here and there. that's why it's interesting to speak to participants that say it makes no sense. >> i would regard as the expected economic return on holding a treasury and for the 10-year, it's minus 110, minus 115, seems pretty silly. from our perspective it's going to take a while for yields to go up the idea is a lot of uncertainty in the near term when you get toward the last few months of the year, we shouldn't need a lot more clarity on the markets. we think the yields don't do a heck of a lot, go up toward the end of the year and split the difference, call it a

175 10-year year end >> let's talk about the stickier parts of the inflation story it comes down to wages here's what ken lingo said on squawk box >> what i'm saying transitory, commodity prices go up and down. the prices of milk goes up and down when you pay a truck driver a raise, you don't go back and say by the way, we gave you $17 or $22 an hour, we're going back to the old rate we don't do that and around a number, 65% of all corporate cost is labor. so, when you're paying -- you're not going to take that money back >> recsteve, the only thing i wonder, for businesses, especially small ones who can't fully absorb the higher cost, does that mean they look at the huge jump in freelance and gig-style work at some point does the business model change because there's only so much of the pie to go around if the individual cost is more -- >> we may not be able to expand

in every quarter to meet the demand that's certainly the case. but the absolute level of wage growth and price growth are pretty disconnected, right and again, services you'll see a much stronger correlation, but we raise output for our work we use technology to make that the case it can come out of profits but what we can expand and we can expand wages, we can recycle that in the economy. it can mean somewhat more rapid growth so, i think the big point here is that there are components of this inflation outlook 5% inflation for the last 12 months, a big piece of that is disruptions to the economy, rapid changes that we can't adapt to but there is another part of this the next 10-year inflation rate we think will be higher than the last ten years >> i'll give you final word on this >> i think that pressures are going to be much more stubborn than the fed would like to believe. i think seasonally undedemand g

up in the second half of the year and when constrained in terms of shipping capacity, that means product shortages will persist i think in a labor market, i think a labor market is tighter than the unemployment rate would suggest. it's a spot concept when you look at the pipeline for future hiring as we all know, there's more job openings than unemployed and i think companies know it and i think workers know it. and that's why you're seeing these pressures. >> which, again, goes back to the disconnect with rates and everything else that's been going on i think it sounds like you all are agreeing in the sense that what we're seeing as a reset in the labor market might not be part of the transitory let's add this all up. we're going to hear from the fed chair at the top of the hour, about 2:30 actually with the news conference. but what about his job itself. published a note saying he thinks powell's position could be in jeopardy listen >> i think it's very much up in

the air. personally as i said i think he's done a great job, but i don't think he's a lock for getting a second term. and it's not because of monetary policy it's because of, i think, regulatory policy. >> michael, your thoughts? this would create a whole other category of uncertainty around the fed's outlook for the next couple of years. >> it sure would the fed's got this new model, this new reaction function, and having chairman powell compound that, we do think chairman powell is a favorite to keep the job. i would say it's really the politics and if you think about the candidates that have been floated, they seem a lot more appealing in some respects and jay powell having been appointed by donald trump. but still when you look at the record, he's been all right and he's been very dovish. what president doesn't want a dove probably joe biden does. >> it was kind of going to be politics, not so much policy, like michael schumacher was saying there are the issues here >> i agree that on the regulatory issues, you know,

progressives don't love powell i think they can address those concerns with the departure and replacing him with a much more progressive figure i think it's very dangerous at this juncture of the structure to replace powell who on the economy has a very good record obviously it is very divided they need strong leadership. and whoever that new person might be, it's going to take them a while to sort of build that respect and leadership and the ability to build a consensus and to steer the committee in the right direction and i think it's just sort of an unnecessary risk at this stage of the cycle. >> we've got to give you a quick last word. >> it has been a tradition to have the fed chair offer the new president to put their own chair in that role so, that's got to be considered a potential risk now, again, the federal reserve is a big committee that has a lot of power to act. powell has done so

>> thank you all that does it for this edition of rapid fire with 20 minutes to go until the decision itself. coming up paypal reporting after the bell today we'll get key numbers to watch s.d what the new fees mean for user and the analysts digging into the changing landscape for fintech. stay with us has a tremendous impact on my business because it's given me networks, access to capital, and access to opportunities. the level of coaching that i get has had a tremendous impact. it allows companies like mine and others to grow, and it closes the wealth gap in this country. we made usaa insurance for members like martin. an air force veteran made of doing what's right, not what's easy. so when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out before he could even inspect the damage. that's how you do it right. usaa insurance is made just the way

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welcome back to "the exchange" everybody. we're seeing i drift lower as we close in on the fed's decision due at the top of the hour nothing major but you can see a pretty clear move to the down side playing out here. look at the s&p 500, confirms this it also just turned negative it had been holding on to gains until the last hour, so it's down about 6.5 points right now. let's get over to tyler mathisen for a quick update workers at activision blizzard are walking out today, demanding better working

conditions for women and other marginalized groups at the video game company last week activision was sued by the state of california over allegations of sexual harassment the company has hired a law firm to review policies and procedures starting next monday, fully vaccinated americans will be able to travel to england without quarantining the rest of britain is expected to drop its quarantine rules shortly. and jared kushner is reportedly looking at leaving politics and starting an investment firm. reuters says donald trump's son-in-law will base his firm in miami but will also have an office in israel, that will seek deals across the middle east, india and north africa the maker of the rifle used in the sandy hook elementary school shootings is offering nearly $33 million to settle a lawsuit brought by families of some of the victims. lawyers for the families say they're considering the offer. and mccormick will recall some of its seasonings due to

possibly salmonella contamination. two spice blends were shipped to 32 states and canada on the news tonight, where has all the seafood gone, a look at why it's gotten so scarce and how prices on what's left have gone through the roof. that's tonight at 7:00 eastern time kelly, i'll see you in about 15 minutes >> that's good payment stocks are mostly in the red today. visa lower on a lack of guidance due to the ongoing pandemic. we'll discuss that, pay paul's earnings and the future of fintech after this quick, quick break. don't go anywhere. to my goals a. this is us talking tax-smart investing, managing risk, and all the ways schwab can help me invest. this is andy reminding me how i can keep my investing costs low and that there's no fee to work with him. here's me learning about schwab's satisfaction guarantee. accountability, i like it. so, yeah. andy and i made a good plan.

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welcome back to "the exchange." visa delivered strong earnings yesterday but shares are slipping down 1.5% or so paypal is also losing steam ahead of results today let's bring in lisa ellis. lisa, it's great to have you regardless of what the specific trends are and expectations in this and that, paypal has completely dominated the fintech space. i guess my main question to you is is it starting to change

rules and fees and disclosures with venmo and the rest of it, are there risks they're going to start alienating users or creating openings for rivals, that sort of thing what are you most focused on here >> yeah, you're right. the dominance is hard to overstate. out of about a trillion in online retail and travel and entertainment spending, a third of that flows through paypal's checkout button now, up from about 20% three or four years ago. it's really extraordinary how dominant they are in the u.s. and as a result are feeling confident in doing things like raising prices on some of their sp specialized services we do worry about a level of saturation, of course when you're over a third of checkouts. also apple pay and google pay in their own environment. so, within the apple, the ios and on the iphone as well as

safari, google within their environment, do have a pretty high share of acceptance, at least, availability of apple pay. and we watch that, whether or not people start sort of substituting or moving away from paypal over to alternative checkout buttons we haven't seen it affect paypal yet, but it's certainly a thing we keep a very close eye on. fe are as high as they are. i think if i read correctly paypal was going to charge 3%. i don't understand in a world where we have a proliferation of payment processors why these fees aren't going the opposite way. why are businesses paying anything more than a couple tenths of a percent? >> yeah, that fee -- that's like the headline enough that only applies to 10% o merchants, which are very small. the main thing they are paying for is a payment guarantee the key thing paypal does is

that if they authorize a payment through the paypal check-out button they guarantee payment to that merchant. and so if there's a charge back later or some fraud issue or something like that, the merchant is not liable for that. that is an essential service for small businesses who are very subject to concerns because online fraud in payments is about five times higher than it is in store. it also drives higher check-out conversion because many consumers are wary of entering their credit card or debit card credentials directly into a small merchant's website paypal has demonstrated that between the merchant guarantee and the conversion rates that they get that it is well worth it for that small merchant to pay that 3%, 3.5%. on the other hand, that is those small merchants. if we're talking about the paypal check-out button on macy's.com or something, they're paying a much lower rate.

>> it's a great explanation. as we watch the crypto world try to build rival technologies that are as good and quick as this one, it's fascinating to learn how they're doing it we know you have to get ready for the call we appreciate it, lisa ellis we'll hear from paypal later ton. check out this mystery chart. gh's down 76% from its 52-week hi the ceo is next on "the exchange." what's on the horizon? the answers lie beyond the roads we know.

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welcome back tilray is our mystery chart. frank holland spoke with him about the results and is here with more for us pretty big movement in the stock, frank shares of tilray up 24% after strong earnings and that commentary from irwin simon that he's exploring acquisition of a packaged goods company or m&a with the u.s. cannabis producer focused on potential cannabis legalization at the federal level. >> going after the consumer area today, consumer products that couldverted and having

msos that have retail stores that will allow us to sell adult use products or medical products is a second tier >> in its first earnings after the tilray merger, 27 cents per share compared to estimates of an 11 cent loss. those missed estimates, the company's price fell 24% and tilray took a charge caused by the covid shutdown of retail stores in canada that forced customers to shop online, and he believes, led newer customers to shop by price. >> your grandmother is not -- i don't know if she's going online and ordering and, secondly, there's no one to help her through what she's buying in regards to potency, why she's buying it is for sleep, for anxiety, for pain and why she's buying it. she walks into a store, there's someone educating her about the product and telling her the

attributes, what the brand does. >> tilray earnings boosting canadian stocks. retail trader excitement, tilray trading at volumes more than 500% of its 30-day average canopy almost 200% of its 30-day average. kelly? >> trying to stage that comeback frank, thank you very much frank holland. that does it for "the exchange." a breaking news edition of "power lunch" begins right now hello. >> and welcome back. welcome back, kelly. >> i thought there would be some dramatic music >> music, a drum roll at least it's breaking news we're just a few minutes away from the release of the fed's statement meeting down in d.c. before we get to our panel of experts to talk about what is expected, what they might do, nothing, what they might say, something, let's take a look at the dow, the s&p nasdaq. the industrials now modestly lower, 139 points, but that's just less than half a percent. the s&p also down a little bit,

0.1% nasdaq managing to eke out a slight gain. of course the industrials were higher earlier in the day, but they have taken just a bit of a breather here. let's bring in our panel to prediscuss what the fed might do and that's jim caron of morgan stanley, jpmorgan's david kelly and alicia levine. ladies first what do you expect the fed to say or do today, alicia? >> so i don't think there will be as many fireworks this time as there was last time because last time was really the fed putting in a hawkish dtilt which had been successful. we expect the fed to discuss the fact that they've talked about the taper, so they're talking about talking about. the decision probably doesn't come until jackson hole in

september and probably not until the end of the year and acknowledgement the u.s. is making progress with growth and the delta variant. all less exciting than last time >> jim and then david, we have about a minute before the decision will come out and we'll get word jim, let me ask you, does the rise of the delta variant make the fed's taper talk more or less likely, with more or fewer teeth in it? >> it makes it less likely but it makes it less likely because it creates uncertainty around baseline expectations. i think the fed does need to speak about tapering, but i don't think they will make any final decisions here i think this will be a meeting where they really are setting the table for something that's going to come more likely in september. >> how about you, david kelly? does the delta virus make tapering take longer >> i don't really think it will change the timetable, but it

does give the fed an excuse for talking about the timetable. the one change i expect to see or one of the very few changes will be the acknowledgement the delta variant or variants of the virus have made the outlook more uncertain and an excuse not to give us a timetable until september. >> all right we're going to take a break right here and go to steve liesman who has the fed decision right now. steve? no change in interest rates. the federal reserve is keeping rates 0 to 0.25% on the issue of tapering the fed didn't say the words but saying the fed said the economy has made progress to the goals of substantial further progress which is the way it assesses whether or not to eventually begin to taper soap it's made progress towards that goal and will assess the progress in coming meetings. so that's the nod towards the idea they're thinking about or still considering this idea of tapering, and they say they've made some progress