♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ . welcome you "mad money" fans, i'm brian sullivan, jim cramer has night off but we have a big hour ahead we're calling it the fast five tackling the week's five hottest stories and how they're impacting america and the world and your money here is the rundown tonight.

first we're breaking down the real risks, and then diving into the robinhood rally and what the next hot stocks may be and biden's big plan spend on infrastructure and electric cars and some staggering stats around your tax dollars plus a crude awakening at the gus pump will new middle east tensions bring a oil boom to america. finally, don't tell santa claus but is christmas at risk why what is happening in china may mean you should buy all of those holiday gifts now. we are not kidding welcome, everybody to a very special hour there is your lineup and let's not waste any time jump right in. first up, the risk to the reopening around america as covid spreads again across parts of the south take a look at some of the staggering stats on case counts across majority of the warmer and southern states. alabama reporting an over 1300

percent jump in the seven day average case count since july 2nd. the worst in america georgia, louisiana, florida, california, they are not far behind all seeing huge pops in cases. but folks as you know, cases are not always the best metric outcomes like hospitalizations, matter far more and luckily most states with the exception of florida and louisiana, are not seeing nearly the same kind of jump in people being admitted that they saw at the peak of the cases and hospitalizations are mostly among the unvaccinated. so let's jump right in story number one what is the real reopening risk ahead and bring in dr. monica ghani, professor of medicine in san francisco and one of the voices of reason on what could often be a highly contentious

and hot take twitter i've enjoyed reading your tweets here is the thing about the delta variant. highly transmissible we saw a huge spike in india and the u.k. and thankfully a quick drop in cases. do you think the same path, spike up and maybe a fast spike down is what will also happen here >> yes i do because the way to think about the delta variant is that i keep on thinking of it as a hurricane. it comes in, and it leaves immunity in its wake what does that mean? well it comes in fast. in places without high vaccination rates like india which had a 4% vaccination rate when the cases with delta started going up in early march, were devastated and that is without vaccination and a lot of suffering and death and it was terrible in the u.k., because of high rates of vaccination, the cases went up fast because that is

what delta does, it gets everywhere it is very transmissible but luckily the hospitalizations became decoupled from cases. they were not where near following the path of going up like cases went up, like hospitalizations went up prior to vaccinations. so the country did open, actually and cases started plummeting that is because those of us who are vaccinated may see a little delta, we're trying not to, but that actually strengthens our immune response but those that are unvaccinated, some people get sick and some people get immunity from it and that brought down the cases that is what delta is doing. >> and we know that there is a lag between cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. usually a couple of weeks on each a state like california, 820%, where you are, 820% jump in the seven day average case counts since july 7th

but thankfully hospitalizations are down 77% from their peaks. do you think that number may tick higher over the next couple of weeks, or do you believe that the higher vax rates will keep the numbers hopefully lower? >> i believe the latter. i think those higher vaccination rates will keep the hospitalizations lower just like they did in the u.k. just like they did in israel and just like they're not doing like you just said in places of low vaccination like arkansas is a prime example here in the united states. in areas of high vaccination, even though of the cases are going up, we have protected our vulnerable and also protected anyone who has been vaccinated from severe disease which is why we're seeing so much less of the hospitalizations following the cases like you said, 77% down. we have to get through this time. >> and very quickly, dr. ghani, are we underestimated as scott

gottlieb has said, natural immunity we talk about vaccinations but are we also und estimating the benefit of natural immunity. >> i think the natural immunity gets us through a pandemic as well and we definitely do want it this way. but yes, there are a lot of people who have been infected in this country and also that is associated with low rates of reinfection. immunity and vaccination both putting those together is what gets us through a pandemic. >> a voice of reason and a even a little hope and positivity out there on twitter, which is hard to find lately it will get better history said that. fifth pandemic in 125 years. we'll get through it thank you very much. appreciate it. so let's wrap it into the economy now. as delta spreads, check out what is happening on wall street. the market is moving on. and maybe looking past all of this as doctor said we will get through this stocks, they're sitting at all-time highs buzz could this record rally come to a screeching halt if,

and it is a big if, things shut down again let as bring in victoria hernandez and gina sanchez, and as far as i know, victoria, none of the three of us is a doctor or epidemiologist, but that said, one of your jobs is to look out and take all known information and make investment decisions based on what you're seeing you're in texas. a big spike there. are you investing or changing your theory of investing based on the the rising reopening risk or is it full steam ahead? >> well i think it is full steam ahead to an extent we're not changing our strategy just because of the rising cases that we've seen from the delta variant. i think a couple of weeks ago when the headlines first hit, then we saw the markets pull back and there was concern about lockdowns going back into place and what we were going to see going forward. that is all come off a little

bit. maybe we have more restrictions in place and there is another push for the vaccinations, but i think the real concern is that it just delays the reopening and pushing it out further and for us what, we're looking at in regards to that is these temporary inflation components that we thought we would probably start to see winding down at this point perhaps they go on a little bit longer and then become not so temporary, they start to become more permanent in regards to wages and in regards to rents in the supply chain issues that we're seeing so we like to have a balanced approach in our portfolio. we keep some of those growth names but we're starting to add some cyclicals, some value names as the reopening trade continues to develop >> and we'll get to some of those names in a minute. but gina, i want to get a issue millions of parents care about and i mean where you are, los angeles and l.a. county, the biggest county in the united states, 10 million people,

millions of kids, schools locked down all of last year. how much of this reopening the economy is tied to kids being able to go back to school inth fall, not going back to virtual, because when they go to virtual a lot of families, particularly those that can't afford learning pods and nannies, they are going to not be able to go to work and that will damage the economy again. >> brian, i think that is a bigger comment than people are realizing. there was a go assumption that as we went into the summer, as cases fell and vaccinations started to slow, that we would turn the corner and one of the assumptions is normalcy and kids going back to school and parents finding new jobs or going back to existing jobs and that is a bigger component than we think buzz because if you don't have children going back to school, you have to deal with not being able to focus on your own job or find a job

all of that locked up, pent up demand doesn't get unleashed in the same way and that is the biggest assumption right now, is unleashed consumption. pent up demand, unleashing itself into the economy and driving the economy forward. >> yeah. if you're a cnbc viewer, gina, we forget that there are tens of millions people that can't work remotely and by the way, thank god for all of them, at the stores and restaurants, they could not zoom into work like we can. if they don't go to work they can't leave their 8-year-olds home alone a lot of first responders and health care workers have younger children and you look out, do you see any risk that the l.a. county schools will go back virtual again? >> actually, i don't see that risk as high as i'm sort of playing out the fact tale if it does happen. i actually think that it is most likely that we will go back to

some form of in person schooling. so you know, and i think that may be also a level of hope as well but one thing that we are seeing in response to this is an increasing number of vaccinations so while vaccinations have slowed through the summer, we're seeing vaccination rates starting to increase because we have new urgency and that will help kind of get us through this trade. and i think the sooner you see vaccinations get approved for children, that will also make an enormous difference. >> the head of louisiana exclusive vaccine distributor telling us on cnbc, they were getting about 2,000 orders a day. they're now getting 40,000 orders a day over the last week. so we should get another pop in vaccinations over the next couple of weeks. but let's talk about the macro economy as you see it again right now. americans have a lot of money in their pockets. not my opinion any data out there, goldman

sachs, bank of america, you name it, is that why a name like a mastercard is agood bet to you because if you're not commuting to work, you have a lot of extra money to spend >> i've lost sound >> she's lost sound. all right. gina, sanchez, we'll get the sound back i'll ask you the same question if you heard it. there is all of the headlines but we forget if you're not commuting on 405, filling your car up with gas, you're saving a couple of hundred bucks if not more every month we talk about spending do you think consumer spending, whether it is a stock or not, will remain strong >> without a doubt and i'm going to put on my chief market hat for lido advisers, they own mastercard as well as discovery financial services in their various portfolios, discovery is one that we own in the recovery portfolio and because we believe that out there is absolute pent up demand

and this is a company that managed to not only recover so far with the economy but during the pandemic expand its services >> gina sanchez throwing on her other hat there. we appreciate it there is your reopening plays. disney, discover and alcoa and if you can hear us, thank you very much. we're just getting started on this special edition of "fast money. one top story down, four more to go and up next, we are tackling the robinhood rally. a wild, crazy week for this knew by stock and we'll name some names on what could be the next big retail plays for you 'rba rhtft twhere. wee ckig aerhis.

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the people who try to keep the balls near the aips, they may say, you know what, to heck. those people are idiot moron wealthy investors who don't know anything and we're going to take it to them >> welcome back. well jim, as you could see, is off tonight. but that is jim earlier talking about the meme stock mentality in robinhood one wall street firm calling the stock, quote, uninvestable kate rooney breaks down the ridiculous volatility this week and this is number two in our fast five rundown. >> happy friday. it is a volatile first full week of trading for robinhood it ended 56% higher but that doesn't tell the whole story in between the rally, it saw wild strings and steep losses. the company closed today at $55 a share. a 7.9% gain and above where it prices in the ipo last week.

so what sparked this rally earlier in the week. well first we had arc invested kathy wood buying in that gave some investors confidence and a lot of retail interest as well it was the most mentioned stock on reddit according to date a on thick num. and the rally on wednesday coincided with the first day options trading was available for that stock and take a look at action in net purchases for wednesday versus the rest of the week buying was more than five times higher than it was just a day later. that is according to vander research and on thursday, more of a bearish tone investors were concerned about lockups forrin seeders in a regulatory file. but they don't expect insider shares to get approval to be sold until august 18th it is not clear if they will sell and they are not obligated to but they have the option to sell and the company saying that

robinhood itself isn't selling shares or don't plan to. and into next week, the action does not look like it is slowing down, brian. robinhood was one of the most single stock options the combination with calls and puts implied big moves in either direction. according to mike khouw, the options market is forecasting a, quote, volatile road ahead for robinhood in the next couple of weeks. back to you. >> kate rooney in san francisco, thank you. by the way, a robinhood insider bought 2 million shares at $38 doubling his money in a week not a bad week here now to help us make sense of the whipsaw action we saw in robinhood and break down some of the other meme stocks that should be on our radar, is justin zen,the co-founder and president of think num alternative data two questions. number one, does all of that, stupid volatility in robinhood

make it uninvestable and what may be the next meme or retail stocks that we need to be focused on >> sure. i want to say the volatility is making it uninvestable i think robinhood volume isstonnishing. it has over three times the dimensions on wall street bets an the number two stock with the amb and what is interesting and think this is contributing to the volatility is the comments so unlike the previous, game stop and amc, over 62% of the sentiment on robinhood is negative on the the wall street bets so it is quite the indecisive which direction they want to go. >> yeah, what are some of the other names we need to pay attention to, justin, quickly? >> so one name that is creeping into the top 40 under the radar

is draft kings draft kings was hit really hard during the text sell-off but if you look at the alternative beta, the number of a mobile app downloads on their new casino app is up almost 30% year-to-date so company starter with sports gambling and fantasy sports and now doing great with gambling and the redidit audience loves the stock. >> justin zen, great stuff on robinhood and watching the weekend. up next, story number three, the big spend, what is exactly in the infrastructure bill, what is out and why there may actually be a stealth middle class tax hike built in if one thing happens. we'll tell you what that is. plus the white house also making a big push for electric cars but you might have a lot of questions about what it is like to really drive one. so look at that.

we tried one out and coming up you'll see part of our trip driving a nontesla ev across california i want you to think hot. that's next.

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welcome back to the special edition of "fast money." tonight we're tackling the five hottest stories that impacted the world, america and your money this week. and no word may have come out as much since monday as infrastructure the senate debating a massive spend. but what is actually in this trillion dollars behemoth of a bill elon has some answers. >> well brian, you're right, the price tag of this package is about a trillion dollars but half of that is money that would have been spent any way.

the other $550 billion is new funding dolled out over the next five years and it includes $110 billion for roads anz bridges, $65 billion for broadband and $47 billion for cybersecurity and $15 billion for clean transit and electric vehicle infrastructure now the bipartisan group of senators that negotiated the deal claim all that spending is paid for through measures like reusing covid relief funds, returning federal unemployment benefits and more economic growth but the nonpartisan congressional budget office begs to differ. bill would still add $256 billion to the deficit because it doesn't count all of the measures as true offsets now that is one reason the final votes in this bill are dragging into the weekend gop senator bill haggert of tennessee wouldn't agree to speed up the process for such a pricey package the other reason is a fight over cryptocurrency and which industry player should get a carve out from the new irs

reporting requirements in the bill but tomorrow the senate will con veep at noon and move to cut off debate on the legislation. then the final vote in the chamber will happen after that they will tart work rg on $3.5 trillion agenda and democrats are using this budget resolution process to pass that bill without republican support. now house speaker nancy pelosi reiterated today that both pieces of legislation do need to pass the senate before she'll take them up in her chamber. so that is when things will actually get super complicated back over to you. >> we'll see what the house does think nancy pelosi and aoc may have something to say about it thank you very much. so, just how concerned should you be about the trillion dollar, that is trillion with a "t" price tag. and here is jimmy economic

policy analyst at the american enterprise institute and a cnbc contributor. it is a 2,000 page bill. eye tried to read through if some of the stuff stuck out there is money being thrown at everything to what you know about it, what are some of the things that stick out most to you? >> i'll be honest, the thing that sticks out most to me is that we have this sort of yawning infrastructure shortfall year after year and now we're actually going to do something about it listen, it is like all of the above. like, yeah, we need to -- we need to better maintain roads and bridges. and create better connectivity we've had this kind of shortfall, particularly in maintenance, for so long that is really the story though it is absolutely nutsy that this is how we do it. that we don't do anything, that we do this crazy make a bill and

then don't do anything for a while again. we need to have a consistent approach and funding toward infrastructure year after year and not just wait for these kind of one-offs. >> yeah, and you you look at the numbers. let's talk about something you and i both know and that is trains you live in d.c. and i live in new york we all agree, high spied rail in america is more like snail rail compared to the rest of the world. $66 billion for amtrak but as slate just noted, the cost of the per mile in the u.s. is two to five times what they're spending for the same mile of real high-speed rail in europe are the numbers just too big here, jimmy? >> listen, that is a big number. and we shouldn't become sort of immune to being astonished by trillion dollars or throwing a hundred billion dollars at

trains the think the goal is if this increases the productive capacity of the united states, then that is good. then you don't worry so much about inflation and given the shortfall, i'm not that worried sort of about the number but you're right about the cost. listen, i don't want to be like that guy from the think tank complaining about regulations but clearly one reason it cost so much is we created a regulatory apparatus since 1970 which makes it very hard to build in this country either in expensively or quickly and we could probably get a lot of bang for the buck and spend a lot less if we fix that. >> we need a new train line under the hudson in new york because the one is dangerous and crumbling. $3 billion per mile is the estimated cost jimmy, always a pleasure thank you very much. >> thanks a lot. so, thank you. as mentioned, electric cars and

the charging grid are a big part of the package as well on thursday the white house making a big push. setting some rather aggressive tarts for automakers they are asking gm and ford and others to target 50% zero emission vehicle sales in just nine years consider that currently that number is just about 3% of all cars and trucks sold in america. and even if you include plug in hybrids, not just all electrics like tesla, is this goal really achievable let's bring in michael wabl. you helped us out with our rev trip which we'll show. and even the most bullish targets don't seem to get us anywhere near 50%. what do you think? >> yeah, i'm glad you said it was a target while it was an exec order, it is more like an executive goal and that is because there is

going to be 50% is what the biden administration wants but even the detroit automakers that were at the event, they promised 40% to 50%. so they're even a little bit less optimistic than the biden administration regarding this new ev goal. >> yeah and a lot of it comes down to charging and the infrastructure bill. there is a couple of billion set aside to build out the charging grid you are in detroit you are an auto insider. we know ford with the electric lightning f-150 and the mustang mach e which i don't think is a very attractive car. what are the industry insiders quietly saying do they think they could really get this >> brian, these are very difficult goals. and when you look at the ev adoption for the rate that people are buying it, it is challenging. it is very hard to get people to change their driving habits. and that is what you're asking them to do with ev's

and then you add on there is not enough infrastructure and the technology is very costly. you see the chevrolet bolt, very small and compact car. that is not what people are buying right now you see tesla right there. people are buying teslas, they're not buying ev's just yet. while many thing that is going to change. >> and that is an important point. because elon musk was not invited to that white house meeting, mike. is tesla really the entire electric car market right now? it may change. you have lucid and lordstown, but right now is tesla pretty much the entire market >> pretty much, yes. i mean they are still at about 70%, 80% of sales. and while you have people coming no the segment, we don't them there just yet and gm was supposed to go up against them with the ev and

ford that is the best competitor coming out with the mustang mach e, but tesla is dominating the space. people expect that come down and analysises expect that to come down even though they weren't at the white house, the bill, the aspiration or the executive order will benefit them quite a bit and they have a giga factory going up in texas that they're go looking to do with the pickup truck and to see how the pickup truck does and we have the f-150 lightning coming it is a very interesting time right now. it is kind of like the wild wild west back in the 1920s we had hundreds of automakers that consolidated. now we have a bunch of evs coming out and we're not sure where the market is going to go exactly. >> that's right. and it comes down to all about the range certainly as well. michael, thank you very much good stuff there remember this was not an eo, this is the president asking the automakers to voluntarily target

these goals. well speaking of evs like many of you out there, i personally had a lot of questions about electric cars. yeah, i've driven some locally, but what about in a longer road trip well producer harriet taylor and i decided to find out. everybody knows what a tesla can do in their excellent supercharger network but what about all of the non-tesla electric cars about to roll out and what is it like to take a 500 mile road trip in one? well the only way to find out is to find out. >> i'm at a walmart in barstow, california and got 84% charge. our first leg through the california desert, not a lot of charging stations out here went to an overnight stop in bakersfield, california. it is very slow. so we'll be charged 100% by 11:30 tomorrow morning more than 12 hours from now.

>> we awoke to a nice surprise, the car was 89% charged. and now we begin the run to san francisco airport for a 4:00 p.m. flight. so we're going to take five straight through the gut of california and there is a del taco in our future let's go >> it is going to be messy the cars were planning software from google which has been accurate, showed we needed to stop twice between here and san francisco airport or arrive at the airport with just a 5% charge. something that we weren't willing to do. first stop and sadly it is not the tesla supercharger look at that they have shade. so let's go find our charger here it is yikes. >> it is hot the sun is beating down here in fire ball, california. and the only sitdown restaurant not looking so good.

our next leg, a lot better into the heart of silicon valley and good-bye range anxiety, plenty of charging stations here and one of the capitols of electric cars. >> all right so that was just a taste much more of our trip along with more on our thoughts about how the non-tesla ev space and charging looks right now also a lot of questions, i'm sure you have them, what is still needed, how does it work we'll post that over the weekend. if not next week so stay tuned for that it was quite the trip. and the car was a pull star two by volvo, spectacular car. super fast and fun to drive. range, though, wish it was a little longer. up next, if you don't drive an ev yet, you still need oil and gas. and coming up, on what happened in the middle east this week may be a much bigger deal for geopolitical and why it could be

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on deck on this special cnbc hour, why something that happened this week in the middle east may be the biggest risk, you are not paying attention to. plus is christmas at risk. why you may want santa to buy all of the toys now. right now with the holidays. and at the top of the hour, mask and vaccine mandates in corporate america. the dominant of american basketball at the olympics the news with shepard smith is just minutes away. 'rba rhtwee ckig after this short break.

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designed to work better together. save, spend, borrow, invest, and earn cash back rewards, all in one app. that's how you get your money right with sofi. welcome back could america be forced back into a middle east conflict. don't count it out with all of the covid headlines recently it didn't get the attention it should have but earlier this week there was a deadly drone strike on a tanker near the gulf the u.s. and u.k. and israel all blaming iran and all this coming as a new hard-line president is sworn into iran. ratcheting up tensions even as the nation hoped to revive the nuclear deal and return to selling more oil let's see how it shakes out for the united states. alena craft, the delta variant

taking all of the headlines. i get it but there is a ratcheting up of attacks on shipping in the middle east, iran being blamed for a large part of this, selleema, how does this play out? >> now, you mentioned, the g-7 came out today and blamed iran for the deadly attack on an israeli vessel. it was hit last friday by a drone strike two crew members killed. it is the tirs time we've had a fatal incident involving a ship. and we have a series of skirmishing but this is the first fatality we've seen. and are we looking at some type of israeli response? the israeli defense minister is out this week saying if we do not get the international community coming together to contain iran, israel is prepared to act alone and we've certainly seen the israelis take unilateral action,

the top scientist, he was killed in a mysterious explosion. we've had mysterious explosions at key iranian nuclear facilities question is is it more of the same in terms of an israeli sponsor is there something more significant. so it is a very important story to watch and also this week, benny gantz again, warned iran is potentially ten weeks away from being able to have a crude nuclear device not fissile material to reach that broke out capability and this is at a moment where the international talks have seemingly stalled. so we think it is an important story. it is not getting the attention we think it deserves but it is something that could catch the market by surprise if it does boil over. >> yeah, but tensions are up as we just said we've also got now iran looking less likely to be putting more oil back on to the market. why haven't we seen a more meaningful move in the price of

oil. opec is only storing 4,000 extra barrels on the day and that is not nearly enough to meet growing demand. >> i think it is obviously the concern about covid. we have returns to some lockdown restrictions in china. there is real concern about key asian markets because of covid so i do think it is the sum of all fears on demand that is weighing on this market right now. so we just have to see over the coming weeks what really happens, particularly with the chinese market certainly there is concern in the u.s. but we haven't seen any new restrictions yet that would impact mobility. and yes we've had inventory builds recently but u.s. demand is still very strong and as you mentioned, opec is being very conservative in how they put back and they're meeting every month so they have the ability to change course if needed. >> u.s. demand is strong, u.s. supply has not come up we've gotten a little smarter,

maybe i guess in production. do you think this sets off a new round of increased oil production in the u.s. or is that not going to happen >> i mean, what we've seen so far from the public companies is that they are remaining very disciplined. it is the private companies that have gone back to sort of ramping up at a rapid pace the public companies, i think under pressure from investors, are remaining disciplined. but the question is what happens next year depending on what is the price, what is the demand outlook. but for now, u.s. production is on a much more muted path than in previous years when u.s. shell production would kill any oil price rally. >> sounds like the price of oil and gas could be on the rise unless covid does derail the reopening plans. always a pleasure to speak with you. have a great night thank you very much. we are not done yet. thank you very much. four down and one to go.

we're going to round out your top five stories of the week with a pretty strong jobs number as well as a bit of a gut check on the american consumer and why you may want to do all of your christmas shopping like this weekend ats xtngen't kiddi th ine ♪ someone once told me, that i should get used to people staring. so i did. it's okay, you can stare. when you're a two-time gold medalist, it comes with the territory.

i think it is a very healthy consumer environment

obviously stimulus has helped. but i also think there is pent up demand to get out and spend it is a sign of an american consumer and a target guest that wants to get out to stores and shopping all of the categories so it is a very strong consumer environment right now. >> a blow out jobs number backing up those comments from the ceo of target. as steve leishman, here was story number five tonight and a bit of a gut check on the great american consumer. >> a strong jobs number has forecasters thinking momentum is building in the employment mashlt market and there could be more big numbers yet to come nonfarm rose and there were 120,000 jobs added through revisions for the last two months the unemployment rate fell to 5.4%, the lowest pandemic. and two ticks better than the estimate average earnings were up 0.4% and but the labor force participation went up a tenth to

61.7% and remained depressed compared to the pandemic many could come back in the fall is behind the optimism for the rest of the year and that depends on impact of the delta variant. kathy from oxford economics writes assuming the variant doesn't forced renewed containment measures we maintain our positive labor out look for the second half and we foresee the economy recouping over 7 million jobs this year looking at where the private sector was leading with 380,000, local education boosted by 220,000 as a seasonal adjustment issue took force relative to what happened with teachers over the summer because of the pandemic health care workers up 47,000 and manufacturing up 27,000 and they were back on the movie lots movie and sound recording jobs up by 18,000 looking at leisure and hospitality, food and drink up by 253 and hotel came back to

work as did the recreation workers, up 53,000 big numbers like these with perhaps more to come are sure to amplify calls for the federal reserve to ease back its very stimulus monetary policy sooner rather than later. brian back to you. >> for retail it is not just about jobs the cost of shipping stuff from china has become insanely high in part because the cost of all of the big metal shipping containers, they have soared to levels never seen before if you want to ship something from china, you better be ready to pay up. which means many american retailers either may not be able to get the inventory on time or at all or have to mark up the price. in other words buying now for back to school or even for the holidays bringing in stacy, it is a real dichotomy. brian cornell of target said it and steve said it. the economy is red hot and consumer flush with cash but you have to have something to buy.

>> that is the problem, brian. the consumer is out there and they're pent up demand is officially unleashed and we've heard that from oddy doss to revolve to so many companies last week. but the big deal is supply disruption and you talked about china and also consider remember years ago so many brands moved their supply out of china and into vietnam. guess what vietnam is getting hit right now and 30% of factories there are closed so supply is the issue going into christmas >> do you think there is going to be severe disruptions and the american consumer has just been conditioned, fear-mongering, there is always stuff on the shelves, don't worry about it i was at the port of charleston in february and march when stuff from the previous easter was still rolling off the docks. >> it is a problem, brian.

there are delays, nordstrom expects delays and more markdowns. but inventories are so lean right now. and it is down between 10% and 20%. so i guess the good news is for retailers, is that they're charging more money for the same product and getting away with it and of course you know, again, you have to shop early this year because there are going to be shortages for the wholesale guys who get products second after the brands dtc, that they own. so there is the real pressure at wholesale. >> yeah and if people aren't paying attention, i know it is weird, it is not like viewers are sitting around analyzing the shipping market. but those containers used to cost $2,000 or $3,000 to ship from china to the u.s. they're now at 20,000 if you could get it and afford it

there have been toy ceo's in articles that i've read that said there is a real chance that the hottest toys your kids may want for christmas will not be available. is it, i don't want to say panic buy now, but really should we be thinking about christmas already or is it a big humbug? >> no, we should because that is very true. if you think about toys, they'll be a shortage. and also if you think about another hot category for the holidays which is footwear nike makes 50% of their footwear in vietnam and as i said, 30% of factories there are closed so there is going to be a situation where of course with covid rearing its head and hitting the areas that are supply chain heavy, so there is a ton of shortages so you have containers an supply cain disruption so the consumer needs to get out there and buy it early if they want the hot product. >> okay. it is friday it is been a long week everybody wants to have an adult

beverage or two. let's leave on an optimistic note simon property said that some or all of the traffic i think at their malls was more than the pre-pandemic levels. americans love to shop assuming though big covid related shutdown, who is going to win right now and in the holidays who looks good >> so, i think you continue to look at nike you continue to look at the hot categories you continue to look at peloton. because they're still -- the variant is rearing their heads out there that make people want to stay home you look at certainly ralph lauren that just reported. the average prices are up 17% on top of 25% last year because they're charging more money and revenue base is lower but their profits are through the roof so all of these apparel brands including the teen guys,

abercrombie and american eagle, the teenager let us out of this and they will continue to lead us through the holiday so talk about higher margins and lower revenue base. >> might see door buster specials next friday why not. let's get it started early stacy, a pleasure. thank you very much. and that will to do it what a night ahead at the olympics american leading the medal count but looking for more golden moments. i'm shepard smith. this is the news on cnbc >> team usa basketball, the men and women go for gold and alisyn felix with a chance to become the most decorated track and field olympian ever >> i feel like myself again and it's beena battle to get