to, this is not a quick trade. >> it's mean investment if you invest for a quarter, it's probably not thhere is liq every three months if you need it but thrizon. >>has so much. that does it "the exchange." power taper debate, accelerating job g nug billion

dollars -- bil exact, and commo crumble. wh "power lunch" starts right now ♪ tell you what's happening right now. as you see percent s&p 500, you would havt or 33 ps oil prices are falling now on rising covid case and is the slowdown that could mean for driving and the economy more generally. the whole thing is pulling the energy sector down chevron, exxon, halliburton,

stocks died to the economic recovery, airlines, cruise lines, they're drifting a little bit lower. but bank stocks are moving higher as bond yields l bank tos support for the economy, sooner rather than later. forecasts ofg ay or in december rather than waiting until january. but michelle meyer writes, the

report leaves september in play for a taper announcement but contingent on another jobs report next month. some say september some say the november meeting is when the announcement will come. some are saying december or january. there are some officials on the fed who might want to begin tapering in the fall, call them the fall guys. here are the keys to the decision that will be made a strong august jobs report will be necessary a sense that the impact of delta will not mean knew lockdowns and this idea that inflation being transitory, that's going to have to define itself by the fall it will be up to powell to make september a real possibility for a taper announcement or take it off the table through his speech. >> steve, what would a faster taper than expectey specifically that it will bring down the bond purchases first

before raising rates a quicker taper means the fed would have the flexibility, not necessarily a guarantee, but the flexibility to possibly raise interest rates sooner. it's something that one of the fed officials was in favor of a faster taper said he wanted. he said, we want to have the flexibility to raise rates if we need to combat inflation that's why we want to start the taper sooner so we can sequence into raising rates if we need to. >> let's leave it there. our next guest is calling for the s&p to hit 4600 by year end, 5,000 by the end of next year and says that the market is underestimating growth could a faster taper by the fed change his call? jonathan, thanks for being us today. what do you say, do you think a faster taper would change your call >> if the faster taper is reflecting an economy that is recovering and returning to normal more quickly, than i think the market will be

perfectly comfortable with it. the real risk, if there is one, is that the fed gets ahead of themselves, the economy is weak, they taper, and they put the recovery in jeopardy and i just don't see that as a possibility. >> it's a pretty bold call, nonetheless. what makes you so confident that we'll see those levels there's a lot of uncertainty we have a rise in cases, we have certain government stimulus programs or unemployment, for example, ending at the end of the summer still a lot of uncertainty what makes you so confident to make a bold call >> well, you know, more than anything else, this is just a reflection of corporate profits. this past earnings season, the eps topped estimates by 16%. that compares to something like 4% 5% of that came from revenues. with all the chatter about, you know, margin pressures, 11% upside on the margin line, we're

calling for basically 8% beats in the back half of the year which would be by far the smallest amount of beats that we've had over the last five quarters if there's risk to the earnings numbers, it's to the upside, not the downside what's interesting, though, is that we're also calling for pes, stock multiples, to decline because we don't think that as good as our market forecasts are, that the price of the market can keep up with this unbelievable basis of earnings we actually see that multiples will shrink over the next 12 to 18 months. >> jonathan, let me go back and follow on the question there the last time the fed began to taper and signal higher interest rates, it was the famous taper tantrum. it was in september, october of 2019 or 2018 time flies when you're having pandemics. but why are you confident that if the fed tapers this time, the

market won't react exactly the same way it did last time which was, as i recall, almost a 20% decline? >> yeah, first of all, is there a risk that the market will take this on the chin sure first of all, they're signaling the heck out of this whether they do this in september or december or november, number one, the taper is going to be very slow it's going to be incredibly well telegraphed and there's no guarantees but if the market takes it badly and does anything close to what it did during that taper tantrum you were talking about, they're going to back off on this thing quickly, or at least that's the way they've been signaling the other thing, tyler, we look at the last four economic cycles, from the time that they raise rates for the first time, and we've only had one of them, but the market was up about 9.5% in the year before the first rate hike, and the market was up

26% in the three years after it's only when the fed overdoes it, only when they flatten the yield curve and they damage the economy too much, that we see that, you know, a real problem and i think that they're committed to going slow enough and even if they miscalibrate, they're going to back away. >> and the examples you cite there of the market doing better as rates rise and as tapering falls away, is because the market is responding, i presume, to a healthier economy >> 100%. right now -- first of all, in this jobs report, we had a big number on payrolls, the unemployment rate fell, but we're looking at an unemployment rate that's probably going to be close to 4% or something by the end of 2022. so that means that, you know, we're going to see slightly higher wages as we see more pressure on the labor market and we're going to see a lot of confidence among consumers to spend down some of these savings that they've accumulated

so this -- you know, all expectations are that this is going to be a solid environment with upside risk and if we find that because of the vaccine or on fiscal spending or any of a number of things that could go wrong -- and they're all real. they're not baloney. then i think the fed is going to step away and i think that there's also a greater chance that the federal government comes in with more support if necessary. >> jonathan, thanks very much. we appreciate it. coming up, the deal of the day. the golden nuggets and draftkings ceo are here to discuss the acquisition and the future of this fast-growing industry plus, amc's earnings are on deck we'll find out what to expect and what the key stock level to watch out for is as we head to a break, take a look at the stocks hitting

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or you'll get back at least $5 in perks. against unforeseen events and it pays pretty quickly. comcast nbcuniversal is investing in entrepreneurs to bring what's next for sports technology to athletes, teams, and fans. that's why we created the sportstech accelerator, to invest in and develop the next generation of technology that will change the way we experience sports. we've already invested in entrepreneurs like ane swim, who develops products that provide hair protection so that everyone can enjoy the freedom of swimming. like the athletes competing in tokyo, these entrepreneurs have a fierce work ethic and drive

to achieve - to change the game and inspire the team of tomorrow. a majogs is buying golden nugget online gaming for?

>> draftkings shares have been a littlet brings 5 million customers to the table in a criticao succeed. i-gaming it's the latest in a series of deals that the sports gaming giant has made last week with a sports betting the tren accelerating here cesarsclosed, size matters ver vertical integrationg up a 50%

a 53% premiu premium given to the score as well fro economies of scale, in synergy to come in for cost efficiencies of having it all

under one roof. >> let's talk to the two individuals who struck this deal thank you very much. we appreciate it joining us draftkings, tilman nt obviously the question is, it was quite a premium for you to pay. is it worth it di, i'm no goink ats well with the sports fan.r onto done as well with the

i-gaming customer. they've done a tremendous job building that brand from something -- it's one of the oldest gaming brands in the world. it still resonates as much today as it did, you know, back 100 years ago. great brand. obviously, opportunity to work with tilman, a tremendous opportunity, track record speaks for himself. and he's going to be a great board member and a great shareholder and somebody i look forward to learning from in the synergies, they're outstanding. you mention 300 million in synergies which is a big chunk of the price of the deal we're excited about that we feel like, listen, the golden nugget was trading at $25 not too long ago we think we got a great deal and, you know, when you want to buy things is when they're at the lower point. and i think both of us are very happy with the deal and i think our shareholders are going to be happy with the results that they say. >> thanks for being here with us today. we heard in the reporting that

the i-gaming consumer is really valuable help us understand what makes >> the i-gaming consumer, you know, plays a lot, unlike sports, there's not seasonality to it. they play year-round it's a customer that has a high degree of their discretionary spend focused on gaming. they love gaming really high ltvs they tend to stick around for life and be customers for life, especially when you have a great brand like golden nugget and draftkings really valuable customer we're excited about the opportunity to expand into new audiences with this deal. >> tilman, you got a very nice price for this property. this is a property that had been succeeding your advertisements in new jersey were all over the place you were building this online gaming brand and you're preeminent in that area. i assume you do this deal

because you see the two companies as stronger together than aever could be separately explain. >> 100%, tyler and i can tell you, he underpaid for this when i woke up this morning struggling you know what i know, this is going to be great for us and it's going to be great for the draftkings shareholders, okay, what you're getting here -- and it's really simple i got the best management team in this space. these are the guys that understand this space. they are a tech company. this is a tech business. this is unlike our business, whatsoever in bricks and sticks. they are by far the market leader everybody knows that the brand draftkings, they are the coca-cola, the starbucks of this industry and they're going to be the one with all the people coming from all over the world to attack the

sports betting and i gaming in america. they're going to be always one of the top players, most likely the top players. that's what i believe in remember, i took all stock there's a reason i took all stock. because i want to be there and watch him and his team grow this, be on their board, help them, whatever i can, and be one of their largest shareholders. when this is what they get up and do every day remember, they've got a balance sheet with over 2 billion in cash this is the best team from an analytic and understanding their customer they have the best platform to grow their marketing is better than anybody else's but, remember, think about what now happens for both companies, tyler. they're getting our huge base of customers at our golden nugget, our golden nugget online and the houston rockets, that they will be marketing to draftkings and

golden nugget online that will drive people in our businesses, besides taking our huge databases and driving them to draftkings this is a true partnership that there's nobody that i would rather be running the golden nugget online brand than this team here. >> we hear you say it's really good for shareholders. how might this deal impact the experience of consumers? might it make it a more pleasant gaming experience, what do you think? >> it's going to 100%. because first off, we're really good at online gaming development slots, everything. the draftkings customer now will be able to go on and get the past of what they do which is sports which is best of what we do but at the same time now, they're going to be able to use our hotels, all of our restaurants, all over the united states, they're going to be able to give them perks and give them points to go to our restaurants

and our hotels and our casinos so he's going to have something that nobody else has, the huge collect, the 24 carat base he got this, okay. and we have the best customers out there. >> let me turn back to you, jason, and ask you how soon do you expect to have a sportsbook open at the toyota center where tilman's rockets play? i know today one of your competitors, i think it was mgm, plans to open a sportsbook adjacent to but connected to wrigley field. how soon will you have a sportsbook and i have one final one, tilman, for you. >> that's up we're opening the sportsbook -- >> that's you. i beg your pardon. i misheard it this morning congratulations on that. >> thank you we're excited about that one i think, you know, the question you asked, it's hard for us to say because it's really

dependent, don, legislation, that we don't have control over. we're hopeful that texas legalized sports betting soon. i think we're hearing if they do, it's going to be the teams that have the access, that have the physical books at their places houston's obviously the largest metropolitan area in texas there's no better place than the toyota center to put a book, should we be allowed to do so from the laws and regulations. timeline is not within our control. once we get the opportunity, we're going to make sure it's the best experience out there. and obviously, tilman has a track record of building out incredible properties. so no one better than him to help do it >> i'm sorry, i did -- i got that wrong, jason. i was listening to news radio this morning out of one ear and i just thought i heard something else so tilman, i assume you would agree with everything jason said i believe there are going to be sports books either in or adjacent to every professional

sports stadium in the country. agree or disagree? >> totally remember, we were at a huge disadvantage, tyler. we can't take houston rockets betts. what would that be like operating a huge sportsbook and sports bar inside the toyota center and i can't even take bets on the houston rockets, just like i can't take bets in vegas or in new jersey or in michigan or anywhere we go for a couple of years, i couldn't take one on an nba team our shareholder was at a disadvantage, not being able to bet on a huge brand like the houston rockets. it's another reason that it's better for the golden nugget online customer to be part of draftkings and their great team because you can't even bet on the houston rockets because i own it >> tilman, i presume that you proceed with this merger knowing full well that draftkings has

been under a federal investigation pertaining to the acquisition of sb tech which wau have no worries about that being a fly in the ointment, to use a cliche >> absolutely not. those ar anies and the i've beeembarrassing in this coy what people will say to drive a stock down and when you have a high flier that's been as successful as draftkings, they come after them like crazy i can remember when i took my company public first in 1993 and

was one of the highest fliers out there in the restaur industry, they came of me with t whatsoever and our outside lawyers did due diligence on it because that's what you do when you get a part of a company. and we don't think there's anything to it whatsoever. >> one of the reasons we love tilman is he says what's on his mind, jason. he calls it crap and bs. do you want to leave it there? >> i don't know how i can top that i think i'll leave it there. >> gentlemen, thank you very much we appreciate it tilman, always great to see you. jason robins, congratulations on this deal. we appreciate your time l ah oid others sinkingti delta variantlp silver screen.

amc set to report results after the bell did enoughn to theaterswe ♪ ♪ ♪♪ it was my dream to be an entreprenon the exams that i had growing up. and that was important for me because you can't be what you can't see. and other african american and latino entrepreneurs across this country because they give access to networks,

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♪ ♪ here is your cnbc news update at this hour. the pentagon is planning to make covid vaccinations mandatory for all active duty service members. lloyd austin says that will happen no later than mid-september and it could be sooner if the fda gives its final approval to the pfizer shot before then and as covid hospitalizations rise in the houston area, the lyndon b. johnson hospitals se to treat p as the olympic games end with mixed emotions in the country. some tokyo residents are telling reporters they're glad the games went an's prime

minister is now below 30 orbit,d emotions, just some fun. astronauts in the international space station held their own olympics, including synchronized floating, no gravity gymnastics, and handball not release a medal count. >> we should do a cnbc olympics. >> 100%. >> and we take bets and give it to charity >> thank you a check now at where things stand in the markets >> so we've tilted just slightly towards the green for the s&p 500, overall the dow is still underperforming a bit, but only down by 0.2 of 1% and the nasdaq up 14,875 we're seeing quite a bit of movement in the crypto side.

46,000, right on the nose there. litecoin up 13%. that's carrying over into some equities as well take a look at coin base shares, up about 7%. microstrategy has bitcoin on its balance sheet, up 3% and robinhood markets, maybe more traffic there, up 3.5% a lot of green on the screen when it comes to crypto. >> tond market now where aggressive selling the last several selling has pushed up yields have we seen the lows of the year rick santelli. rick >> it certainly appears so what you're referring to is last wednesday, to the left of the chart. a 112 yield in ten and it's been nothing but upside ever since. if you want to know why this is a key level right now that

you're asking this question, look no farther than 2012 and 2016 pre-covid, the all-time low yield closer were a bit under 1.4. 1.37 and 1.39. so we're snugging up to what may be the most important resistance of all and a couple of clues are saying, should we clear this 136 to 139 zone on a closing basis at 177, about two months and the dollar index, if it starts to clear 93, it's going to be at a four-month high those two issues taken against the big rise in rates recently certainly gives a lot of support to the notion that we've seen a low yield close of the year. tyler back to you. >> ahead on "power lunch," classic commodities getting clipped. bitcoin surging, are investors moving to crypto we'll discuss that plus the new reality for auto buyers are the high pceris here to

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♪ welcome back the oil market is closing for the day. prices falling on what appears to be delta concerns. >> rising covid cases as the delta variant spreads is hitting oil, sending prices tumbling and building on last week's losses which were the steepest since october. new lockdowns are prompting fears that demand fo slow of 2.5%nger dollar as well out of chinat some believe this recent weakness may be overdone tyler, back to you. >> thank you ver

commodity getting hit today. check out these big moves in just the past 24 hours along gold, copper, which many as an economic indicator, also down we have having me >> simple question, what's happening in commodities we know lumber has collapsed, but some of those other industrial commodities have also followed suit. >> yeah, i think you've got two things going on simultaneously first, in the u.s., we have a great payrolls number and while that's -- it's great to know that people are getting back their jobs, i think from a stimulus perspective, it puts

the fed in an opposition because, again, can you still print over a hundred billion dollar a month with this kind of backdrop and i think the answer is, less and less so. you have less bandwidth on that front. you have a mandate on infrastructure which leads to less upside on the fiscal front. and at the same time, as you pointed out in the prior segment, the covid cases in china are picking up and the government is tackling down i think china has got little room right now to use fiscs as . those two reasons are enough to knock down commodities from the highs in the past few days. >> let me make sure i'm understanding the connection that you just outlined there between the feds, you were

suggesting that the fed can't continue to pump money into the economy through quantitative easing or buying the bonds off the market can't do that. so the economy is likely to slow a little bit which would pull back demand for industrial commodities like oil, like copper and others. am i understanding you correctl >> that's the direct inference here remember, the fed has been a huge supporter of the economy for a long time. the problem is, we're creang jobs very, very quickly and soon the unemployment rate will be at a point where inflation becomes a bigger risk. and the big debate has been, as you know, going from transient to permanent inflation, and the feds have been telling markets that it's transient. we're not going to allow for inflation to take old. >> stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending, that

doesn't push commodities price higher or is it they don't use that kinds of commodities and trade because it's asphalt and concrete and stuff. >> asphalt is part of the complex. it's an oil-derivative the issue s we've been waiting for this infrastructure plan for a long time. i think to a large extent, it was priced in. so i think commodities are taking a bit of a relief more than half of the world's d commodities are based in china we don't know how effective the chinese vaccines are going to be they've injected them, but are they as effective as the mrna vaccines that we've had here in the u.s. and in europe the answer is probably not they're going to have to be more conservative in the way they reopen their economy and that's clearly -- can cause

a drop in commodity demand for a month or two until they resettle there. >> you've said it's not that bad if commodities cool off is what you told your producers. explain that a bit for us. >> at the end of the day, we've had a huge run-up in our commodities and i think if you look at headline inflation in the u.s. and around the world, the ramp up in prices has been coming from the commodity complex. if we get a pullback that allows the central banks to reassess, and maybe gives the fed an extra month or two before the inflationary pressures gain momentum again so i don't think it's a bad thing to see a correction, a pullback in commodities. not everything goes up in a straight line. but we're confident that come the fourth quarter, we're going to see the chinese government, once again, coming back to provide more support to the economy and therefore the

commodity complex. to your point, the infrastructure will provide some real demand over the next couple of months. so i don't think that we're looking at a major slowdown, but a slowdown in the rate of growth and a mid cycle correction if you want to call it that way. >> we've leave it there. thank you. >> thank you amc is set to report results after the bell the stock up more than 1,000% this year. what a year it's been. between meme mania, the return to theaters, and covid fears, what should investors expect check out some of the other names reporting results after ale bell, smile direct club, the re real, planet fitness and square space "power lunch" will be right back

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welcome back to "power lunch. amc entertainment out with earnings after the bell. just this year, up roughly 1500%. is there more upside to go

let's bring in our team. katie, let's begin with you. what are the key levels you're watching >> we worry more about stocks that are coming in hot, meaning they have very strong upside momentum ahead of the report that leaves them more to prove and amc has pulled back about 60% from its recent high above 70 so in a way you can view that as a positive it has short-term oversold however, it still does have downside momentum and the volatility is extremely high it's difficult to stick your neck out in front of an earnings report i think we should watch certain levels we're watching support around $29. and on the upside, we would watch the 20-day moving average. it's right around 36, 38, at this time. we see two closes above that level, that to me would be impetus to add expose because you would reflect improved momentum behind amc following

this creative phase. and you would avoid the same >> in either direction i don't think i have much of an edge in guessing how it's going to perform after reporting earnings here. but i can say this, we've been talking about that the bonds that the company has been issuing have really been weighing on the high-yield market it's been a big reason why credit spreads have widened a bit noticeably since early july. typically viewed as a warning for the market so for us, it does suggest and indicate that there are more attractive opportunities to gain exposure to cyclicality and one of the reasons we professor small cap growth to small cap value. for more trading nation, head to your website up next, steep sticker

prices, are they here to say tight supply of used cars could mean a new reality for car buyers we'll discuss that when "power lunch" returns >> and now the latest from trading nation.cnbc. >> when the any is expanding, industrial and technology stocks have outperformed the broader market however, when the economy is contracting, more defensive sectors tend to outperform i'm lee bohl and schwab is the better place for traders

new car prices are higher than ever. dealers cannot keep up with demand if you're waiting for prices to pull back, you may have to wait forever. phil lebeau joins you with the new reality for buyers, phil. >> tyler, i call this the new normal, though some people will look at this and may say, what this this is normal? the price i'm paying at a dealership, more than $42,000?

this chart is at a record high when we say transaction prices, we're talking about how much you are paying, not the list price it now tops $42,000. why is it expected to stay elevated pretty darn close to a record high you have the q3 auto production being limited due to the chip crisis that won't end some time soon. the big three do plan to clear out their unfinished vehicle inventory in the third quarter there were be an improvement in terms of delivery for them the big three, the july new auto incentives, they've been down for some time, down more than $2100. they don't have to juice the deals as much as they used to because of the tight supply that's out there for the auto dealer stocks, this is the golden time, though when you look at the used market, there has been a bit of a

pullback not huge but, guys, this won't be changing any time soon. >> i was speak to an executive a week ago at autoland he said it was very interesting. they are selling unit volume is down a little bit, but profitability, he said, has never, ever, ever been higher because of practically everything is going at sticker price or above. >> right. >> he said that's great for us, our bottom line right now, but it is a real adjustment for buyers, particularly longtime customers who are very accustomed to negotiating. what do you mean i have to pay sticker price? what are you talking about we're alienating some longtime customers, because they're so thrown by this new reality >> but there's no place for the customers to turn.

it's not like a dealer says i'm not haggling, and you say, i'll go down the street well, go down the street they'll tell you the same thing. >> for someone looking at a way to play this, are you seeing it carry over to the names like o'reilly or something, cars that are mechanics, car parts, that sort of thing? >> oh, yeah, absolutely. auto part retailers have had a heck of a run. if you watch their ads closely enough, you'll notice they're increasingly offering more than what they used to. in other words, a chang for you to go in there, and we'll tell you whats wrong, and we'll advise you on what parts you need or don't need that is an adjustment there that increasingly people who don't not want to take their vehicle in to be serviced, and wouldn't do it themselves, they like that i can get guidian, more than i would have two or three years

ago at these stores. phil lebeau, i'm scared to admit, i might be in the market for a car soon star saving up it's not a buyers' market. coming up, inflation hitting the side of the barn shares of tyson surging more than 8%. the poultry produceray ss it's raising price to say offset costs. that story is coming up next

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if it's any indication, higher prices for food is likely to stay. >> if you look at how tyson stock is reacting today, a lot of it is the results better than expected results, but not only that sanderson farms got bought out by a private -- if you look at the 8.5% gain here, it's impressive to see just how tyson has done it even with cost pressures, it's managed to put some of those prices on to some other consumers. in its earnings call earlier this morning, the company came out and basically said the prepared foot setment is up 30% versus pre-covid times

that's a huge move higher before the pandemic hit we know how good it's gotten since the lows of last year. they have seen an unprecedented inflationary environment they currently see higher prices in food service operations, and could see higher retail prices by the beginning of september. it goes to show you even companies lie tyson are finds pricing power to pass on to consumers. >> really, what what is the consumers' choice? >> if you buy chicken, yes what you are finding right now is consumers, the iron is hot. everybody wants to eat out more often. some of that prepared food side of thing goes to restaurants and service. opentable has reservations, and take a look at this chart here what it shows you is verse 2019, you're actually seeing at one

point earlier in this summer, a positive gain in the number of diners in restaurants over 2019. right now it's down 8% guess what, guys what does that represent the covid delta variant news cycle. that goes to show you how much it will play in that rahel, great to be with you. thanks for watching everybody. we enjoyed your company. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to the "closing bell," i'm wilfred frost the major averages are mixed to kick off a new trading week. the dow is down fractionally as we head into the final hour of trade, but the nasdaq is holding on to slight gains. >> i'm courtney reagan in for sara eisen energy is the worst-performing sector in the s&p 500, as oil prices retreat on global growth fears. but also having an