>> mike, in terms of the week ahead in the markets, i guess yields had picked up meaningfully earlier in the week but back to 130 again. that debate is pushed back again. >> it is, and just watch the case loads everyone's expecting a rollover. we're having also uptick in vaccinations, which should be good news. >> let's hope so that does it for the closing bell "fast money" begins right now. yes, it does, courtney, mike and wilf, thank you. tonight on fast, it is all about you, the american shopper and many eeamerica's biggest stores are saying about the future of the economy. they're all rolling out their numbers next week. plus, listen to this a good week for speaker company sonos got even better, the headlines set shares the already surging stock even higher in the past hour. and be sure to stick around for the top of the hour, for a special bonus hour, of fast, which is all about spending in america. from booking your next trip, to

buying your next home, we're diving in to all the ways things have changed for you, the consumer, what it means for your money, we've got a big audience, kevin o'leary, chris coombs, many more will join us at 6:00 p.m.eastern. in the meantime we've got a lot to do right here hi, everybody, i'm not melissa she gets the night off i'm brian sullivan thanks for joining us and your traders tonight, steve grasso, carter worth, and nay dean turner so much to get through tonight let us begin with the market itself because this has been nothing short of a juggernaut rally. look at that now, the s&p 500, it may not have posted a monster gain today, but it doesn't matter all it did was close at a record for the fourth straight day. which means the s&p is now hit an incredible 48 record highs this year, in fact, it has been ten months since the index has even had a tiny 5% decline

wow. and most incredible perhaps of all the index has now doubled from the pandemic low. if you were smart, or lucky enough, or both, to buy back at the march of 2020 low, you're up a cool 100%. even as these gains come, even as we get some warning signs around consumer spending, markets continue to move higher. consumer sentiment, by the way, at its lowest level in ten years, that set yields back down, below 1.3% so let's kick it off and tie it all together steve grasso what does all this market action that we've seen recently telling you, are you getting nervous at all? >> i think as a trader, brian, you're always nervous, you never think you have all the answers you threw a lot of information out there, and the one thing that has been the constant is even with a lot of these different pullbacks that we've

seen since the pandemic low is that the market continues to go higher so what do you make of that? and the reason why the market has gone higher is that chair powell is in the market's corner i don't think he can do anything everyone's worried about taper and everyone's thinking about when that's going to take place. but if you really think about it, he has delta to give him some fallout shelter in his quest for tapering, which i don't think he wants to do we know eventually he'll have to do it. but it sort of does give the all cleek sign, with different pullbacks. i'm sure we'll talk technicals, where you can see the market giving back a substantial portion, five, ten percent but then it will ratchet its way back up because rates are low, and they will continue to be low. i said before that we would be

talking about where we're at 177, or 174 in the ten-year. i had said we're going to talk about lower rates sooner than we're going to talk about rates above 2% so i think that in a nutshell, brian, risk outsets, risk on trading. you could decide whether it's value or whether it's growth, or whether it's both. >> you know, listen, i love me some steve grasso, nadine, but ai i'll push back a little. i am kind of tired of talking about the fed. what about the things underneath the hood of the market for example, we've got corporate buybacks at record highs, the amount of available stock to buy is, what, 30% or 40% lower than it was a decade, all the deals, all the buybacks that reduced just the available supply of stock, 4.5 trillion in cash on the sidelines, more money chasing fewer things, you don't have to go to the university of chicago economics school to understand, that is likely to lead to higher prices.

to you, what is behind all this market strength? >> well, it is the lower rates, it is the fact that people have a lot of savings they have cash in their pockets, in fact, there's still a lot of dry powder out there that can support asset prices, especially risk asset prices. and so when we look ahead, liquidity matters and you have people looking at things and on the down days picking them up but i think you are right, brian, there has been a lot of volatility under the space we're hitting all-time highs every day, which is crazy to say but underneath the surface not everything's going up at the same time. you'll have a day where the market might be up 20 basis points but individual stocks are, you know, up or down 2% to 5% each. you have to peel back the onion and say which are the sectors, the geographies that will do well what are the factor exposures? you have to trade around this market a little bit and know where your position -- i don't think it's tide lifting all

boats. >> well bottom line, we like to look options action, 5:30 p.m. eastern time, check it out, and you look at v vicks or the sku index, pardon me if i'm getting nervous right now. the fact that the market has been so sanguine, ticking higher any day, is anyone out there in our box nervous? bonawyn. >> worry, i'm going to stop short of saying worry but i always look at some of the things you pointed out to inform my position, you mentioned the vxx and a few other metrics, listen, protection is relatively cheap right now. so i'll tell you why i'm not nervous, the cost of me protecting my portfolio is relatively cheap i might as well go ahead and add protection, that gives me calm, i'm willing, as you mentioned,

we're up, we've doubled interest that pandemic low. i mean, i don't -- whether it's university of chicago or the school of las vegas, going ahead and take some winnings, that's house money, and maybe you leave the craps table and play yourself some blackjack. i don't know what it is. but my point is, i'm looking at how things are trading -- >> i want to jump in, there's actionable advice here, maybe, i think, i'm not going to speak for you, tell me if i'm wrong. maybe sell a little bit of the profits you've made and what, buy a couple of longer dated put options on the overall market? what exactly would you do? >> well, i wouldn't be a proponent of doing both. that's essentially doubling down i wouldn't sell something, and then buy protection. i would just buy protection. and if the protection expires worthless you've essentially sold something you've gone ahead and spent that premium. if it works out in your favor, you've protected yourself.

that would be the way that i would play that. >> yeah, carter worth, you've heard the conversation, fundamental from the fed, and steve, and nadine, and bonawyn, talking options and buying protection, when you look at the charts and factor in all known things as you do, do you see any reason for invest r concern in the months ahead >> well, i think we're all trying to factor in all known things, of course, and feeling our way in the dark to a large extent but nadine makes a point when you said not all votes yes, the s&p, which of course is dominated by a handful of big names, is making new highs yet the russell hasn't made a high in five months the john jones transportation in four months, financials just trying now to eke out highs and so forth and so on so it is about picking the right areas or picking the right stocks trying to navigate because if it's just about the market then the case could be made for just being in the market, and not trying to pick stocks.

it's all about getting your picks right. >> carter, thank you very much all right, more macro conversation coming up, no doubt. but right now we've got an after hours alert on sonos, shares sushlging after a judge ruled that google infringed on five of s sonos's patents. this reported earnings on wednesday. this is a case you were watching closely, i believe you owned or still owned the stock. you've got to be loving that kind of headline. >> of course, yeah i've owned the stock for quite some time. i originally bought it with a 14 handle on it i believed in it i thought it was going to have a bright future in front of it the other night when i was on with earnings, i had mentioned that i was still in it and that the big day was supposed to be today. so people that were in the name, people that tracked the name, were more excited about the

ruling today, then about any one off quarterly earnings the reason why they're so excited about it is that cnbc has covered this pretty effectively, there were only five patents in the lawsuit today but there's 150 infringements but they could only get five patents in here. the reason why they wanted to go federal second was the federal level, the doj has never ruled against the trade commission's ruling so that leads us to believe that google won't go federal. they'll just settle. so if they settle, then this becomes a licensing deal for the foreseeable future usually these licensing deals last 20 years. i'll break it down to the viewer, this could be $50 million in licensing fee going forward, next year, if sonos was going to make 350 in

ebidta, 70 million or so with their other licensing deals, now you're talking about 420 million ebidta, and 70 of it is licensing, there's got to be a re-rating in the stock so people feel that the stock is going much higher. i feel it's going much higher. i'm still long it. people have thrown out a number of $100. it's whiteboarding it at this point but this is all tail winds, this is a huge win for sonos and they might go after amazon i don't know i don't know anything thaw you don't know but i know there's a lot of infringements. >> those are great points. to steve's point, what's not at risk, licensing revenue. you don't have to worry if customers buy your product or not, that's almost risk-free money for sonos. do you own or would you own or do you want to own sonos >> that's right, i think steven nailed it on the points, estimated to be around 10% increase of ebidta, that's a big

number and you're pointing out the consistency of the ebidta, you don't have to get new growth or come out with new products you're basically getting a royalty off of somebody else's train and they've sold tens of millions of these speakers that are now infringing as an investor in sonos you've got to like that doesn't hurt google that much in terms of obviously its profits but when you look at a company like sonos it's a big deal. >> all right, nadine and steve, thank you very much. sonos up 8.5% after hours. coming up, you may not care that much about bond yields but you should, a small move there could move big tech in a big way. the chart master lays out his thoughts on where rates and maybe stocks will be headed next. we're sorry so say it, but earnings season is not over just yet. still got a ton of retail names on deck next week. good old fashioned game of shop it or drop it. see how the traders are playing

all those stocks, those retailers, your money coming up next, "fast money" back in two minutes.

introducing xfinity rewards. our very own way of thanking you just for being with us. enjoy rewards like movie night specials. xfinity mobile benefits. ...and exclusive experiences, like the chance to win tickets to see watch what happens live. hey! it's me. the longer you've been with us... the more rewards you can get. like sharpening your cooking skills with a top chef. join for free on the xfinity app and watch all the rewards float in. our thanks. your rewards. fast money everybody, ten year yields, big leg down today, primarily on that weaker

sentiment data but if rates do rise from here, it could mean big shifts on where certain stocks are headed. let's dive into the charts, chart master carter, take it away sure, before looking at the charts, just to be clear, i'm forever and always in the camp that the cost of ten-year money being at one, two, or one, four, 16, or 115, has nothing to do with the three to five year dcf work and the signing of a gross stock. however, the market seems to think that it matters a lot, and on any given day it does let's look at some charts. first, two yield charts, the first is just the 10-year yield chart as we all know it and see it and no judgments or annotations by me. the second is with the lines as my eye sees it which is to say the move down since one spot 77 has been very orderly. we know he hit 1 spot 12 about a month ago in mid-july. but interestingly when we

rallied to 1.38, this week, we hit our head to the penny at that upper band of the downward sloping channel and we close today at 1.28. a real setback for those in the camp that were heading higher. in fact, consensus is close to 2% at the end of the year for 10-year yields, i do not believe that's going to play out in any event let's look at tech names, a few charts. first, just the tech sector itself this is the xlk, the way to capture the whole sector and how would you characterize it? i would call that an uptrend it's a stay long, be long circumstance, if you will, two stocks, a stock that looks a lot like the sector and hub spots, next chart, hubs, up to the right, north by northeast, orderly, steadily, never gets too steep, a classic stay long, be long, and end with mongodb,

software, this has been a lagger and yet the setup, call it what you want to call it. like a head and shoulders bottom, but the point is, this is poised, i believe, to play catchup with the sector and to deliver some outright up performance on its own. >> all right, good charts there from carter worth. let's trade this bonawyn, how much do rates play into everything? >> you know, i actually think the rate thing has been spoken about ad nauseam and i feel like we've distilled it down and oversimplified that. we're looking more at credit spreads. you have rates, talking about the 2% yield how it will affect banks, how the longer end of the curve is sentiment around gdp and growth aspects. for me it's about the fed and i know you were tired about hearing about them it's about them striking a delicate balance between tapering asset purchases, and high yield purchases, and what they're going to do with their target rate.

because as you can see from a lot of data, like when we have rollovers or spreading or widening in the credit market, particularly the high yield credit market that trickles down and correlates much better with small businesses, and how they're going to continue, like those have been the companies that have not had the same access to credit, and low rates that these large behemoth companies have, those are the things i'm focusing more than just any particular rate, but how rates trickle down into different credit pockets in the market. >> yeah, good stuff. and nadine, i want to be clear, i've been tired of talking about the fed since the ben -- i used to have a fed car, every time someone brought it up you had to throw a dollar in it it's an easy excuse. i understand how much it matters but it's like my least favorite saying is it is what it is it's like, you're not saying anything the federal reserve is a convenient excuse for everything, stocks go up, it's the fed's fault, stocks go down,

it's the fed's fault that's my point there, still, rates do matter, what are you watching in the rates market, what kind of stuff do you think will happen if rates do go up? >> i think there's two things, one is there's a misunderstanding that when tapering occurs, rates don't just jump up, usually before that is when rates have gone up, and you actually usually see rates go down after tapering post qe, if you think tech is still a bond-like security, then it actually should benefit tech. so i agree with carter on this, looking at tech, it's in a bullish formation, it should continue second point, if you want to bring up the chart about implied volatility, we like to look at the options markets and what you see here is about where people are actually positioned. you've got the qqq, so that's tech at a 55% implied volatility premium. it means people are paying up for protection same thing with mgk, which is

megacap growth 44%. the red bars, the small bars, you have the xlf, financials at a discount, minus 20 people are already positioned as if rates are going occupy. and carter mentioned people are thinking it's 2% for the 10-year and we're on the opposite on that go long tech because people are positioned on the opposite side. >> nadine, bonawyn, thank you. coming up, getting some big moves from the so-called smart money. we're going to dive into what they call the 13 f's, the whale watching plus the options traders are putting on their tool belts. they are hammering into one big home improvement stock and jam packed options action. do not go anywhere, we're not done back in two. there's your mystery chart see y c gssifouanue

(♪ ♪) a fashion first, (♪ ♪) a science first, (♪ ♪) or a first for us all (♪ ♪) whatever you hope to achieve for your business, cloud first helps you get to value...first (♪ ♪) let there be change accenture ♪

someone once told me, that i should get used to people staring. so i did. it's okay, you can stare. when you're a two-time gold medalist, it comes with the territory. i'm evie's best camper badge. but even i'm not as memorable as eating turkey hill chocolate chip cookie dough creamy premium ice cream and chasing fireflies. don't worry about me. i'm fine. you can't beat turkey hill memories. i'm 53, but in my mind i'm still 35. that's why i take oste bi-flex to keep me moving the way i was made to, it nourishes and strengthens my joints for the long term. osteo bi-flex, plus vitamin d for immune support.

news alert right now, some moves in bio tech. scouring sec headlines and databases all day long and joins us with what the pros are buying. >> brian, all day it's been the last two hours we've seen a slew of these 13 f filings come and the deadline is not until monday a couple of these fund managers really getting ahead of the curve here, some pretty interesting moves during the second quarter, namely in the biotech space, with regard to biontech, a 262% boost in that position to hold just about $300 million as of quarter end, also massive jump in moderna, 388%

jump in the holdings in that stock to 1.4 billion as of quarter end. so clearly very bullish on the prospects for the vaccine. also in the fang front big boost in amazon up that stake by 64% to hold $1.5 billion worth of amazon and a 34% boost in facebook as well. peloton, though, watching this well-known stay at home stock, they increased that stake, tripled to hold about half a billion dollars in peloton and with regard to chinese tech in particular, lee auto they paired that back by 90% used to hold $1.4 billion worth now it's just $50 million as of the end of run these positions may all have changed in the six weeks or so since then, brian, interesting

moves nonetheless by coatue, a hedge fund we follow closely. >> maybe they see booster shots ahead as well. leslie picker, great to see you as always, thank you. >> thanks, brian. >> unbelievably, already time for our final trade, around the horn now, steve, kick it off. >> so i'm going to go with name i've been long for quite some time, chewy. everyone during the pandemic bought a pet or added a pet and they've got to feed those pets active customers are increasing, that means that sales are increasing, that means revenues are increasing, brian. chewy. >> chewy bonawyn. >> the trend is your friend. uber technologies. i know it's tempting to jump in, don't catch a falling knife. let it base, find a level. >> nadine. >> you need to trim your gold, gold hit the top end of our trading range today. if you've got some, trim it, if

you're looking to short it, you can short it do it through an etf like the gld. >> nadine does not love gold carter worth. >> bonawyn said one of the great lines of all time, the trend is your friend, qqq, stay long, be long. >> there you go, long and strong on the triple q's, guys, thank you very much, appreciate it all. that does it for this half hour of "fast money" but option action is next and then stay tuned for a special bonus hour, looking at consumer spending, inflation, prices, small businesses, all coming up at 6:00 p.m. as well. options action in two minutes. then the special we've got a long way to go see you back for it right after this

i am brian sullivan in for melissa lee tonight, here's what's on tap. >> if you can't build it, they won't come carter worth explains what lowe's is lacking, going into earnings next week then, charge decline tony zang has his eye on amex, and arranging another form of payment for you. professor go is highligh