Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 16, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

5:00 pm
realization even with a taper that is coming, the fed is all in in terms of super low rates and not talking about rate hikes any time soon. dow and s&p both closing at a record high fifth day in a row of gains that is it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now with courtney reagan. >> thank you very much live from the nasdaq market site overlooking times square this is "fast money. i'm courtney reagan and in tonight for melissa lee. tim seymour and karen fieder man and nadine terman and guy adaumy the stock falling 4% as u.s. highway officials launch an investigation into the auto pilot system of tesla. and we're tracking the after hours shares of ten cent music we'll take you inside of that quarter. and later break out your credit
5:01 pm
card we're gearing up for a big week of retail earnings we'll dive into the key names that need to be on your shopping list but we start with another record day on wall street the s&p 500 and dow closing at all-time highs for the fifth straight day the s&p now officially double its pandemic lows. move coming as fed officials grow supportive of starting to wiends down the central bank bond purchase program. let's get the latest from steve liesman who just spoke with eric rosengren. what did he have to say? >> he basically agreed with the general idea about the federal reserve merck committee looking to coalesce around tapering as pet purchases in september and begin reducing them, and he was comfortable with waiting a little bit long tore start so here is a new taper timeline from our reporting, courtney a taper announcement happening in september last month, market consensus had
5:02 pm
been centered around november or december the taper beginning in october or november, that depends on how much advanced notice they need to give markets and then a taper that lasts eight to ten months, depending on how aggressive the fed wants to be in bringing down the asset purchases. it is buying even though it is reducing the amount of buys. and on "closing bell" we did speak to eric rosengren. and he said with another strong jobs report he would support the september taper and finish the taper midyear 2022 so that is about an eight to ten month time frame there the criteria for raising rates is different for a taper but he did say that if wages continue to rise faster than expected that might be a reason for raising rates. no decision has been made yet by the federal committee. they could delay the announcement until november if the august jobs report is weak and the delta variant sparks
5:03 pm
lockdowns or inflation ratings ease off jay powell is yet to speak since the july jobs report came in hotter than expected and producer prices came in at double the consensus so the focus now, turns to j powell in jackson hole where he could set the table for the september announcement courtney. >> very interesting timing for that big jackson hole conference i have to ask you, if rosengren said taper could start in sent if there is another strong jobs report, you could remind us where the economy is on what they believe will happen when the extended unemployment benefits roll off for more americans as it pertained to how it will be relayed in the jobs report >> okay. but first what i'm going to do while i'm answering this question,ly look up which i have not looked up yet, the consensus for the august jobs report -- for the august jobs report it is a little early so we may
5:04 pm
not have it. but right now the expectation that sometime in september these extended unemployment benefits will roll off. and the result of that is that people who have -- some people who have been say sitting on side lines waiting to get a job could come back into the work force as a result of that and that could ease some of the labor shortage we've had out there. the result of that would be to ease some of the wage pressure in the economy, and there by easing the inflation a that is the kind of stages that forecasters expect the economy to go through as part of the idea that the inflation surge will be temporary. >> it is karen it seems like there is a concerted effort among members of the fed to get this mess oth out there and get the market ready, the tapering is coming, rather do you think the market is accepting it because it hasn't been that huge of a reaction certainly versus the last time we saw this.
5:05 pm
or are they questioning whether maybe the delta variant causes us more pressure, economic pressure what do you make of it >> i think there is a bunch of explanations i that is a really good question and i'm working on a story about why this is been a taper tranquillity, i'm not sure if that is the right word but there are a couple of answers out there. let me start with the idea that fed share jay powell has been extremely focused on making sure there won't be a tabntrum and he studied what happened in 2013 and he believes the answer is advanced notice. i think he wants to lull you to sleep by this. we started talking about a taper in the spring. by june we had a pretty detailed report about the fed's plan to roll this out. and then they began rolling it out. so they talked about it in the june meeting and the july meeting, they're probably going to talk about it jackson hole.
5:06 pm
and let's not forget this, we're talking about a taper. what does that mean? a reduction in the amount of purchases. so what i calculated today and you could double check me on the math, if you take $120 billion down by $15 billion a month over eight months, you are still going to add $660 billion to the balance sheet while you're tapering so that is a nonevent for markets that believe we're going to have strong growth and bought into this idea of inflation being temporary. >> steve, it is tim. how about the concept of the fed needs to wait to see september data because the world -- kids back in school and the country is coming back on and people coming back from wherever. does this change the timeline for you. because i think september data means out in october and they can't do anything until november that is my logic >> you know, all my reporting is
5:07 pm
conditional upon the august report being strong. but i think, tim, where we are right now, is that the august jobs report has to prove why the fed should not announce the taper. and that is a bit of a change, right. i think as a result of that, you have to have a really strong report but the other -- if it was the other way, about you the way we are now is that that report comes in, 500 600,000, or 700,000 good enough. maybe down in the 200 maybe they wait a little bit. >> thanks for answering our questions that don't have any real concrete answers as we wait to see what happened have a great night. >> and for the record, i don't have any nonfarm pay estimate yet. >> so i threw you and i'm sorry about that. >> it is not something that i didn't know. it is something that i didn't have the answer to so there you go.
5:08 pm
>> fair enough thanks, have a great night. let's trade on this a little mr. adammy, we have not heard from you what do you make of all of this and the fed timeline right now and what mr. rosen gren had to say on the "closing bell" with steve. >> i think karen's question was spot on. why is not the market reacting to this and i think steve's answer was also spot on, the fact that although maybe we're talking about a $15 billion a month, we're till talking about a fed continuing to add to their balance sheet. and a question for another time, the bond, i talk about it a lot, i'm becoming a broken record but the moves in ten year yields have extraordinary given it should be the most liquid asset on the planet. you've seen it i don't need to go back and tell you some of the moves over the last few months. but they're remarkable and maybe the market is just become accustomed to it.
5:09 pm
but i would submit that bond volatility is the precursor of volatility and that is what my concern would be. >> nadine, what is your thoughts here >> well, we looked at it a little bit differently and that is will yields just trade in a range. and so we were long fixed income and some treasuries last week and then you get yields down so the bonds are up and then today is the day that you trim them. if you're feeling a little bit more lucky maybe you go short the tlt. but we're just seeing it trade in a range so that is what we've been doing for client portfolios. and what we're looking at in terms of the data for gdp is decelerating around the world to the growth is decelerating so we think the fed will have to walk a fine line between the positive numbers, so the labor coming back and inflation being high and saying if things will decelerate, how do we walk this fine line. >> so tim, if the market is unreactive to some of these taper headlines, does that mean
5:10 pm
that rates are going to matter more do they matter less as we're battling inflation or just finally ready to get out of this period of unprecedented rates? >> i hear you. i don't think the markets are close to ready if you think about the market's perspective, i think the sense of when the fed-and i don't i want to speak for other folks. the fed has been very clear on telegraphing this. when central banks are pulling in liquidity and when the fed is beginning of global central banks pulling in liquidity, i say get out of the way and what we've just said now and what steve underscored, is the balance sheet will grow as they are tapering i think that the market also tends to get ahead of the fed. so if the fed is beginning to pull in at least some of its accommodation, things like the ten-year to me begin to price in maybe a little less liquidity, maybe a little less growth and what is concerning as an
5:11 pm
investor is whether it is ppi or cpi or inflation of the university of michigan confidence number which not that great, relative to where you see all -- like, we should see rates higher and ultimately i think this -- we are getting a lit little bit of a message from the markets and i think rates are low and they're going to move lower and they think one step ahead of what is actually happening even though, yes, rates should be moving higher. but you think we got a chance to see this three months ago when the fed began to start to guide this conversation. >> right and karen, sort of to your question to steve, in the same wain, why don't you think the markets are reacting more to some of the taper headlines, because they've been so communication to the market. >> i think that is part of it. the market is concerned about inflation for a long time now and there is a big debate whether it is transitory or not and it seems transitory somewhat
5:12 pm
but then you get these big employment numbers so that is an argument for the other side. it might be the absolute number -- the absolute interest rates are so low that does it really matter if they move a little i'm not quite sure i really don't know. >> karen, i love you were so smart and i love that you say that because, nadine, i say rates are so low if they raise them 50 basis points, does it really matter that much? look, am i not understanding this well enough >> well i think that the points about being two steps ahead by tim was really important here. and that is if you look historically when there is tapering post qe, markets actually tend to go up and so that might be a little bit counter intuitive, but people are playing a few steps ahead and so when we look at market today, it makes sense to us, but what we think about the rates is that oh, it will be
5:13 pm
range bound for a while. so we think of trading in a range. we don't think it is jumping the ten year above two, it is not going below one but you have a sweet spot range it is trading in and you can't go all in one or a different way in any one time but can you trade around it >> i'm going to give you the final word, guy, before we wrap up this conversation >> yeah, i'm not an economist. i say all t all of the time. i'm not smart enough or humorous enough to be one but i do think bond volatility is a thing and to your point about 50 -- i know this is just math, but 50 basis points when ten year yields are 10% but when they are 1.3% it is different. i think we understand that and finally the fed has done a masterful job, whether i like it or not, they've done a masterful job in communication vis-a-vis that the volatility, the vix is 16 1/2, 17 under that mandate they've done an incredible job.
5:14 pm
>> got it. well, coming up, we're going to go shopping for opportunity. a ton of big retail names report result this is week. we're digging in with a good old-fashioned game of shop it or drop it. but first we're all over some after hours action and shares of ten cent music on the move after reporting results you could see higher by more than 3.5% those details up next when "fast money" returns tion to their medical appointments. that's why i started medhaul. citi launched the impact fund to invest in both women and entrepreneurs of color like me, so i can realize my vision and give everything i've got to my company, and my community. i got you. for the love of people. for the love of community. for the love of progress. citi. the personal loan from sofi helped me consolidate my credit card debt into one simple monthly payment. debt free! thanks to sofi.
5:15 pm
♪♪
5:16 pm
introducing xfinity rewards. our very own way of thanking you just for being with us. enjoy rewards like movie night specials. xfinity mobile benefits. ...and exclusive experiences, like the chance to win tickets to see watch what happens live. hey! it's me. the longer you've been with us... the more rewards you can get. like sharpening your cooking skills with a top chef. join for free on the xfinity app and watch all the rewards float in. our thanks. your rewards.
5:17 pm
welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on ten cent music shares moving higher let's get to christkristina partsinevelos. >> think about it like the spotify of china posting a mix quarter, a slight miss and shrinking so why the company said it increased investments and revenue sharing fees and ten cent did continue to show it is growing market share with online music payers reaching 66.2 million for the second quarter, almost a 41% increase year-over-year. and they've focused on long form audio and expanding the library through licensing deals with
5:18 pm
universal and sony music year-to-date, the stock has trended down 52% and ten cent music does plan to list in hong kong against a d listing here in the u.s. nicki is putting off the sale until next year when market and regulatory hurdles have eased. and also keep in mind in july the s.e.c. said chinese firms must disclose the risk of the chinese government possibly interfering in their business. aka an audit and unfortunately for a lot of the companies, beijing forbids such reviews on national security grounds which is like many are turning to hong kong for secondary listing. but it is trending slightly higher after the results. >> thank you very much. tim, you're a music guy. one of the resident music gurus on show. >> yes, i am. >> not the only one.
5:19 pm
but one of them. what do you make of this report. and just the general risk around investing in a company with all of the regulatory risks. >> the spotify of china unfortunately is not about an exclusive strategy on content that they had in streaming and they lost an anti-trust case and there are reasons why some of the bottom up stuff is not great. but the story here is on regulatory side and at tack on ten cent and ultimately the sense of where the streaming business which also had a bit of a monopoly in china is under some pressure. i think they have some transition of their product base into more social entertainment i think that is exciting and a cost to. but remember this is a stock that was a $50 billion market cap in late march. it is now about a $16 billion company. so it is staggering what is happened again in the internet space. and look at trading today in ten cent overall and in alibaba.
5:20 pm
if you read the china news over the weekend, there was semly in the state newspapers more commentary about their need to go after some of the streaming so it is not good. >> guy, what do you make of ten cent here, would you rather go into a pandora or a spotify or could you not compare them because this is all about regulatory risk and not about the fundamentals of the business. >> tim hit the nail on head. and he was one part of the music guru i think i'm another part i'll give you a rolling stones strong and this is under my thumb of the chinese government that the companies find their selves in. and i think tim and karen would agree with this and i'm interested to hear what nadine said is 176 is the level that alibaba closed at in march of 2020 and we're close to that i think the risk reward for alibaba is the best in probably
5:21 pm
eight or nine months. >> nadine, you got called out there by guy so i want to get your comment here on ten cent >> it is probably because we were saying short china last week for ten cent music, our trading was about nine spot ten to 11. so today it actually hit nine. so it is below the trading raven. for me it is a buy and it had roughly 22% upside. people are paying up for protection but tim's point, as a trade, it was oversold today and you could buy it and make some money but in terms of the intermediate term there is some problems here guy and tim were talking about it and it is not just the regulatory aspect, but the fact that they have to pull the $5 billion offering in hong kong and when you indefinitely pull it, what it means is you're foreseifing a lot more issues down the road, such that you can't plan ahead and as a shareholder, this is nothing more than a trade, if the management team can't plan for it, as an investor, you
5:22 pm
can't. that said, we were short china last week and we covered that given the last few days of trading with china being down. now china is oversold. so if you are looking for trades, obviously there are undervalued assets like baba and others but you have to be willing to make this more of a trade or along hold. but you can't sit there and not look at the stock because it's a volatile ride. >> that is very interesting. you go short-term or go all in and as we've been talking, shares were higher by 3.5% and now they're up but under 2%. we're just getting started here on "fast money." here is what is coming up next. >> some big retailers are ready to report. so should you shop or drop these names? plus, tesla shares headed in reverse. the ev maker under pressure as regulators crack down. we've got that and a lotore m when "fast money" returns. s plan for my business, but all my employees need something different.
5:23 pm
oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee... yeah i should've just led with that... with at&t business... you can pick the best plan for each employee and only pay for the features they need. ♪ music ♪
5:24 pm
♪ dream, dream when you're feeling blue ♪ ♪ dream, dream that's the thing to do ♪ ♪ music ♪ when you see value in all directions, you add value in all directions. accenture. let there be change. growing up in a little red house, on the edge of a forest in norway, there were three things my family encouraged: kindness, honesty and hard work. over time, i've come to add a fourth: be curious. be curious about the world around us, and then go. go with an open heart and you will find inspiration anew. viking. exploring the world in comfort.
5:25 pm
welcome back to "fast money. we're gearing up for a big week of retail earnings with big names like walmart, target and lowe's and macy's. and the basic rules of economics are the focus. consumers are spending but inventory is tight and the delta throws everything into question there is a kink in every link of the supply chain so what is the set up going into these retail reports karen, i'm going to start with you because you hold a number of these big names. >> i do. the first five of them >> exactly >> so tomorrow we're going to get walmart and home depot what should we be watching from those reports first and the action you're taking based on it. >> i think they're all going to have good numbers but i don't
5:26 pm
know if that is the story. for two reasons. one, expectations are very high and we see what happens when high expectations are met by high earnings. that is not good enough. what are they seeing now things are changing sort of quickly. so i want to see the delta variant, how much of an impact is that having we're in the middle-ish, of back to school. so for a name like target and walmart, what are they seeing for back to school that is important. that is what i'm going to listen to for home depot and lowe's, has the enormous trend, does it still have legs. i believe that it does so i'm long both home depot and lowe's i want to hear what they're seeing out in not just home improvement and new sales, but they typically have a good season now because it is summer and people are doing outdoor projects but i want to see what they're saying about what they're seeing now it is sort of what have you done for me lately. i think they all have great
5:27 pm
numbers. >> nadine, which name do you want to talk about here? pick your poison. >> well we could talk about macy's >> okay. >> it is been a business that people haven't liked that much but i think as karen is saying, part of it is just these businesses are doing better. they're in a better position than a few years ago you have transition to in-person shopping versus online we saw that with the amazon report, right. it was a little bit slower than expected and also kids need clothes to go back to school they didn't buy them last year adults need clothes, they maybe got bigger before going back into the work force. so think you're going to see a better print but with macy's, i think of it this way you have to again thread that needle as they might have a good print you could hold into but after a few months the reality sets in and comps start setting in and then you'll have to worry about debt levels and other problems, so these again are not i would say buy and hold but i think you could trade around them this earnings season.
5:28 pm
>> macy's up huge year-to-date and i want to point out where kids need clothes, they grow out of them and you have to buy them no matter what the situation is. but the mastercard spending numbers for july were really good for apparel up 80% and department stores up 45% now this is july 2021 compared to july of 2020 where we were still dealing hefty in the pandemic but that is all on in store com combine so perhaps we're see some strong reports but it may not be big enough. we're going to dig into a few other names. so we want to play our game. >> let's play a game. >> shop it or drop it. gentlemen, are you in, because we started with the ladies lets a start with target up 27% since last reporting. so tim, are you shopping it or dropping it. >> target is doing everything right. the frequency of the store business by customers and the same day service and at adoption is unbelievable.
5:29 pm
my biggest issue with target is really on a reveli -- a relative basis not only with waulmart, i is a peer and there are better places to go and for that reason i'm out. >> oh, you're out. karen, what are you thinking >> i'm in. >> i'm dropping it i went shark tank and who am i kidding, i dropped it. i play the game right. i picked the right show. >> okay, mr. wonderful i'm long i like it. it is had a huge run that is my least favorite thing about it they did everything right during the pandemic and doing nicely coming out of it the mix is better for them they're doing more apparel and better margin for them so it is not a crazy expensive either the only thing to not like is how far it is come but that is not enough reason to sell it and take a big gain and when do i get back in. can you ever get back in i don't know so i'm long going into earnings. >> got it.
5:30 pm
next up home depot, up nearly 5% since last reporting nadine, are you shopping it or dropping it? is the home improvement trend over or are we still in it. >> i guess first, karen, for me, it is such a great company and they've done well through the pandemic and then beyond in serving procustomers as well i think expectations are high. i'm dropping it here it is not short but not something that gets me too excited. my range is about 327 to 338 so it is an even plus minus 2% so that is not quite as exciting. but i'm looking at lumber prices and seeing if revenues will be up because lumber prices are down but are margins going to get worse. what is happening here as well as the supply chain and other issues so i think it is easier to pick things apart than continue to get excited about what they're putting up. >> it does seem in home deport reports, it is hard to move the needle or bad and such a big
5:31 pm
company that operates so well, you don't usually see pops after earnings but guy, who do you make of home depot. would you shop it or drop it. >> i'll play the game correctly and i'll say shop it i know what nadine is saying you could clearly make a case against home depot on valuation but i would shop it because we saw the huge move in may, shelling up to 335 and it flushes enough people out where we'll ratchet through the all-time highs again but don't be surprised if they announce additional share buy back i think they announced a 20 million share in buy back in may. pristine balance sheet and comps are great and valuation a concern but it is been a concern for the last five years. i think you shop home depot. >> we'll see what happens tomorrow walmart and home depot, they are dow comment components macy's down 1% since last reporting. we heard where nadine stands on
5:32 pm
this one karen, are you shopping it or dropping it. >> i'm dropping it i'm not shorting it. macy's is very cheap it should be very cheap. you can't sort of get your way into -- you can't shrink your way rather into getting into a company. they've done a great job given what they have so doing everything that they can. but they did have a lot of debt to take on it is not crazy expensive, but it could pop but i don't want to be in it i would rather drop. >> got it. tim? >> i think there is a lot of short interest in the stock. so i think karen is smart to avoid the short side there is almost 14% short interest there was close to 30 when the stock was at $10 so you've taken that up. i think jeff janet is one of the great ceo turn arounds in material and certainly anywhere. and when you think about the percentage of sales through digital sales at macy's, i think last month was north and in addition to managing inventory
5:33 pm
because that is why i go to macy's i'm a buyer, i'm shopping it so to play the game right. and i do think that macy's while it is having a great run, it is consolidated very nicely around this 18, $19 revel and i think it is ready to make a move. >> footlocker, do you think? sneaker head, are you shopping it or dropping it. >> i'm not a sneaker head. butly do this one. i think they have a $72 price target again, people will sort of knock it on valuation, the fact that a lot of direct consumer stuff but i think it sold off enough where you get a bounce post earnings, i think on august 20th so i shop it. >> okay. nadine, but ho you for footlocker shopping it, dropping it. >> i think for the quarterure probably okay but i would drop it otherwise for me we have such a large component of your business tied to one group and in this case it
5:34 pm
is nike. i look at the valuation of footlocker they'll have to put in capex to please nike, sg&a to please nike so i would rather go -- i could shop it and i'll shop nike but i'm going to drop footlocker. >> that is a concern many of the retailers have to aggregate the brands when they start growing their direct to consumer business. but karen, a word on foot log locker what would you say here. >> i agree with everything that nadine said. that is the knock on footlocker and than think managed to trade nicelyality times through it but we're starting to see nike accelerate that direct to customer it used to be a smart part of the business but nike during the pandemic has turned it up a notch or two footlocker took a position in goat which is good for them. they're trying they're doing everything they can. but i think it is a challenged
5:35 pm
business. >> fair enough that is a fun game of shop it or drop it. we all played well even tim got confused about the rules in the game we were playing. >> i'm sory. >> it is okay. an investigation into the tesla auto pilot system. so buckle up those details are next, shares down 4%. and traders have their eyes on big pharma the big smart money, how the stock is moving and the after hours and we'll give you that when "fast money" returns.
5:36 pm
for skin that never holds you back don't settle for silver #1 for diabetic dry skin* #1 for psoriasis symptom relief* and #1 for eczema symptom relief* gold bond champion your skin
5:37 pm
5:38 pm
welcome back to "fast money. check out tesla tumbling as the safety administration announced a formal investigation into the ev maker auto pilot system phil lebeau joined us on this serious story. >> it is a serious story we'll see whether it leads to a recall to the tesla vehicles impact the here. there is no doubt this investigation catched a lot of attention because you're talking about a auto pilot system, when people said this is bad news and others have said it is overstated how dangerous this might be 11 crashes into emergency vehicles are being investigated.
5:39 pm
17 injuries, one fatality and basically involved all of the tesla models, the sxy and 3 ten 2014 and 2021. the montage that we'll show you of different vehicle crashes are all first responders type incident where's a tesla in auto pilot hit a straight trooper car or a fire vehicle at a highway scene where they were responding to another accident or something else was going on. and the teslas involved were in auto pilot mode. 765,000 tesla vehicles involved in this investigation. elon musk has defended the auto pilot technology for years now there are some who said he has suggested that you could drive hands-free all of the time with auto pilot. he comes back and he has said and i've heard him on conference calls saying look, we have told people and there is language in the tesla vehicle owners manual that said you must pay attention when the vehicle is in auto
5:40 pm
pilot mode nonetheless, there have been some changes made. the model 3 and y both have cameras inside that face the driver those cameras were turned on in some model 3s and ys this year and many have suggesteds that the type of technology that needs to be in all tesla vehicles across the board. so that it could alert a driver when they fall asleep, when they get distracted, whether they're not paying attention that is the type of technology that you see in super cruz, with the gm and other automakers where they have the driver identification cameras so that they could tell if you get distracted, if you fall asleep, if you become drowsy, et cetera. >> and so is that what the investigation, phil, is trying to determine exactly, what questions are they asking. >> right >> are they trying to -- >> all of that was the driver at fault. was it the system. they may come back and say the system warned the drivers and they didn't pay attention.
5:41 pm
and it was human error remember there was a tesla auto pilot crash, the first one where there was a fatality down in florida, several years ago and it looked like here is a case with auto pilot. it didn't work right the vehicle crashed into a semi. ultimately the ntsb conducted a lengthy investigation and at the end of that investigation, they said that the technology worked the way it was supposed to work. so you can't sit there and say immediately well it is the technology, it is not working. you've got to see how these investigations play out. >> got it. thank you very much, phil. this is a serious story. but it does have ramifications for the stock prices down plor than 4%. what do you make of what phil has to say and what they're looking at and how this plays out for tesla and the technology that is trying to really move forward? >> i think the people that are buying tesla for the technology are unfazed by this. i think these are very serious concerns and these are dynamics that in the past have been questions around the company, but i don't think they've ever
5:42 pm
really moved the stock the closest thing is when the stock had bigger issues around the profitability. but around the balance sheet when i thought it didn't take a lot to push it around. they just announced some very good numbers and some of the trends that made those good numbers an the profitability will get better. but i think the big issues while they've reduced cost per vehicle and the revenue per unity and the gross margin do not warrant this multiple and i don't think it is -- it doesn't have the kind of growth of a tech multiple company and i've said that for three years and i've been wrong on stock price. but if you say if the news is a game-changer for tesla, i say no. >> the people that love the technology are not phased by the investigation but shareholders were today as you could see the move in the stock. >> sure, but also tech was down because of a question on rates so i think that is probably a little bit muddled but at the
5:43 pm
end of the day it is not that much on the share price. but you think tesla, you could look at a 6.6% upside so our range is about 682 i think to 728. but when i look at other options, i think that is what tim getting at we pitched volkswagen a few weeks ago. i much prefer that that is more of a 6% upside. much more steady business and they're leasing out their technology and partnering with people and they're more of an underdog from a brand perspective, in this space, but when you look at the technological advances, they've gone it. so i would rather just play elsewhere on this one than play a high multiple on tesla. >> fair enough thank you very much. we're going to move on berkshire hathaway makes big moves in big pharma. we'll break down the buys next. plus is there a new big short? michael bury betting big against kathy woods arc etf. we have more on that in just a few so you don't wantot go
5:44 pm
anywhere "fast money" back right after this only nature's bounty does. immune twenty-four hour plus has longer lasting vitamin c. plus, herbal and other immune superstars. only from nature's bounty.
5:45 pm
5:46 pm
welcome back to "fast money. warren buffett's berkshire hathaway making by moves in big pharma let's get to leslie picker.
5:47 pm
>> warren buffett's firm pairing back the exposure to health care during the second quarter according to the 13-f filings. selling about half of the stake in merck nearly 9 million shares making the position worth about $700 million as of june 30th the firm also shrunk the abbvie and bristol-myers squibb but they were still worth $1.8 billion at the end of the quarter. they closed a position in bio gen. they did maintain holdings in johnson and johnson and teva but they were really small berkshire revealed this month that it had been net sellers of about $1 billion in equities during the quarter after unloading nearly $4 billion during q1. in that vain, they sold about 20% of the stake in martian mclennan which had a new stake last quarter and the firm sold
5:48 pm
about 10% of gm during q2. there were a few additions they boosted the stake in kroger to hold more than $2 billion at the end of the quarter and a bit more to a ron and rh as of june 30th they may have changed in the six weeks or so since then. >> thank you it takes time to go through the numbers. guy you flagged big moves in big cap pharma before we got this move so what is this take on what leslie summed up for us? >> it is interesting listen, i respectfully, i think the berkshire 13-fs are different than five or ten years ago. they had some missteps but you have to take it into consideration. we've been steadfast on a number of names pfizer finally making all-time highs getting through that
5:49 pm
43 1/2, 44 huge double top and eli lilly is grinding higher and that is the best in breed and that bio gen moving down to 325, the risk is for that that name so those are the three places would you continue to be. >> okay. karen what do you make of the moves and leslie pointed out these are a bit dated because it is as of june 30th so the positions could change but we pay attention to what berkshire does. >> because they're steady investors, they don't change that much. it has more impact i like the big cap pharma space. to lilly, bristol-myers and merck and pfizer and i think it is sort of been a nice place to hide in the storm of whether we're in growth or whether we're in delta variant, i feel like there is still upside there. the valuations are cheap the dividends are nice which i don't buy anything for dividends, but i like the space. i want to continue to hold onto
5:50 pm
it i think that one thing that we did see last year was people not going to the doctor, there was during the pandemic, they didn't go now hopefully they'll continue to go and that is been a big push for these companies i like them. >> got it. well, coming up, michael berry of big short fame setting his sights on a new target we'll take a trip to the options bits to break down the action. "fast money" is back in two.
5:51 pm
♪ someone once told me, that i should get used to people staring. so i did. it's okay, you can stare. when you're a two-time gold medalist, it comes with the territory.
5:52 pm
and there you have it- woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet, i get that too and mine has 5g included. that's cool, but ours save us serious clam-aroonies. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself.
5:53 pm
welcome back to "fast money. michael bury of big short fame just revealed a huge bet against arc invest kathy wood and the company's flagship arc innovation fund. his asset management bought more than 2,000 put contracts against the tech fund in the second quarter, representing more than $30 million worth of stock arc innovation is down about 6% in 2021. even after bouncing nearly 30% off the may lows and other options traders are betting that the pain could continue. mike khouw joins us now with the action
5:54 pm
this is a interesting one. >> yeah, so we did see puts outtrading calls by more than two to one on above average volume trading over 100,000 contracts overall. most of the opening activity on the put side was in the september 104 strike puts. we saw over 7500 of those trading for about $1.76. and the result of adjustmented to earlier bearish activity in the august 27th weekly 115 puts and the weakness was an opportunity for them to take some profits that have bumped up slightly overall there are put contracts open on about 81 1/2 million shares of the arc etf right now. that is about 44% of the float >> mike, thank you very much by the way, you could read more about micah bury's bet on our website at cnbc.com/pro to sign up tim, what do you make of this move >> well it is an extraordinary move and if you -- we know the
5:55 pm
composition of kathy wood's fund kathy wood has created such an aura around her and she's been to successful, it makes her a target a lot of the names in that fund, including a 10% position i think in tesla, is the biggest position in the fund michael bury, he also, has shorted at least the same filing indicates that he increased a short in tesla via puts to the equivalent of 1.1 million short tesla shares which is a massive position so again this is a guy that is going after high multiple stocks, maybe ones where he thinks there is structural flays as well. and again, we talk about the multiples in some of the names they're tough to justify having said that, most of the stocks in that arc etf have had major runs. >> nadine. yeah nadine, what do you make of this action for micah bury? >> well we could see it because
5:56 pm
what you have here is that the short-term trade line, the arc broke it and what it means is that if you continue to see weakness then it would shoot down pretty fast and my guess is that betting against tesla and high multiples an against tech which is also him thinking that rates are going to rise and that is going to be one of the beneficiaries is a down arc. i'm not saying that i know what he's thinking. but that could be it when i look at it, arm trading range is about 116 to 124.5. if if gets to 122, it means it is above the trade line and if you go higher. but if it stays lower and continues to break down, he's going to be right on his puts. >> just a hair under 117 tune into "options action" friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time up next, it is already time for final trades ♪
5:57 pm
♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ as i observe investors balance risk and reward, i see one element securing portfolios, time after time. gold. your strategic advantage.
5:58 pm
5:59 pm
final trade time
6:00 pm
nadine >> fisher at 534. >> guy >> oracle. >> tim >> courtney great having you walmart into earnings. >> and karen, wrap it up for us. >> anthem. up today i still like it here odal. >> thank you for watchin my mission is simple, to make you money here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to teach you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet

116 Views

1 Favorite

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on