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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  August 17, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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just the potential slowing of the global economy we saw new zealand have a few d days shut down off of one case governor abbott just announced he has break through that is going to do it for us on "closing bell. "fast money" begins now. live from the nasdaq market society in new york city times square, this is "fast money. i'm melissa lee. tonight's lineup tonight on "fast" we're trading the china crack down chinese tech stocks falling. we're breaking down the full fall out and the home building stocks getting hammered we'll tell you what happened for the first time in over a year that sent these stocks tumbling. and one of our trader chasing a real loser and why they're seeing opportunity in this beaten down game stocks pulling back from
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all-time highs and the s&p and dow snapping five day win streaks erasing the gains for the month of august. industrials and consumer stocks seeing most weakness as the consumer takes center stage. walmart and home depot under strong pressure. retail sales coming in weaker than expected. so what is the read on today's market kick us off. >> eight tenths of a percent worse than expected. and building materials, furniture sales that was a big bright spot and a signal that the consumer was ready to spend and be supported by a tail wind in housing maybe we've seen as good as it gets even though i said last night and i believe that the tail winds for housing, low interest rates, the housing bubble is still very much in favor of the consumer and their able to lever up and spend a little money on their house.
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and we'll talk more about home depot. but i think that is part of the bleed through. you had it happen on a day when home depot, not so great and some other retail sales around the companies not so well but the thing about today's market that i thought was notable was that everywhere you looked you had weakness and in areas that i think are synonymous that should be related to growth. the smh, so the semiconductor index. so we're at 50 day moving average which for this etf which measures semiconductor space as hand been very much a leader for the market overall, there hadn't been many times in the last two years where we've been resting on 50 day and i think we need to watch this but i think other high growth high multiple stocks had a good boost i think are under some pressure and i don't discount fed minutes as been an insignificant part of this think they are sorry for the double negative.
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i think they are. >> karen. >> the retail numbers were surprising but i don't know if built into the numbers is -- they don't have the supply that you want, right. >> like a car for instance. >> and they say i went with my daughter to buy something for her room and they said we'll ship it in early october she said forget it i'm not going to even get it and i don't know how much of that supply issue is built into the retail -- >> what was it >> it was just bedding you'll see it next week. so anyway, that is a different issue. but there were some positive things cassity and utilization and i think industrial production, i think there were some things that were better so i don't -- maybe we're slowing a little because of this delta variant. but i still think the consumer is there and i think this will end up being a small blip. >> in terms of the overall impact, guy, what retail sales don't capture is spending on
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travel that is not included what we saw from recent credit card data put out by jp morgan and bank of america, there has been a sharp pull back in money spent on airline tickets and if you look at what the consumer is spending, maybe that is in fact slowing >> yeah and we heard from commentary from southwest air that backed that up. last time we played a grape of wrap it or slap it and karen and nadine you weren't here >> shop it or drop it. come on. >> oh, sorry apologize. it is not that time of the year. that is what we do in december but nadine and karen both said you have so scrap or excuse me, fade home depot and i thought they were spot on. i thought we go ratcheting through the 345, because a lot of the stocks get ahead of themselves and now the technicians that talk about double tops in depot and people
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will look at valuation, that is what is most concerning with me. and i've said all along never underestimate what consumers want to spend but if things are not available or too expensive, that is where we have a problem. and by the way, i'm sure joe la vorn will speak do that but that puts the fed in a predicament here. >> mike khouw. >> one thing about home depot, it might be a little bit more expensive relative to its history right now. probably trading around 23 1/2 times earnings i think one of the things that we have to think about is that some of these companies benefited mightily from the economy that was over the course of the last 18 to 24 months or so and we can't expect 17, 18, 19% eps growth for home depot and the like going forward necessarily. i think that tail wind becomes potentially a little bit of a head wind and i think we're seeing that now as people are lowering their eps expectations
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for home depot but i agree with karen, i don't think that the consumers is completely giving up here. i do think that the news that we're getting is going to hurt travel and business travel even more than recreational travel. that is going to be tough on names like american express and the people that depend more on business travel than the recreational traveller that isn't quite as impacted. but either way we are not where we were a couple of months ago where everybody was coming out of the holes and thinking all was well again. >> why, do you think, tim, there is a softness moderation and or slow down however you want to characterize retail sales from the data from credit cards, do you think it is because of delta or there was pull forward because of stimulus or do you think people are going back to work and not building that deck or plant their flowerbeds like they were before. >> i still have flowerbeds to plant and i don't know what i'm waiting for. i don't want to be dismissive of the delta variant.
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i think we make it clear, we're not being socially insensitive from the economic perspective and the impact we're going to get through this and i think we certainly have a sense of where the economy has been pulled forward. i think what we've had through a parade of earnings that have been very good is we've been forced to look at the two year stack and where these companies are now talking about normalized er earnings and the reality is how many toaster ovens do you need to buy or washing machines i need to buy. but he think there is an enormous pull forward and i do think that despite the strength of the housing market and the ability for that to have duration through this, yeah, i mean, there is some -- we have that pent up. >> in terms of the impact on the economy and therefore the markets, guy, isn't that worse than a blip or whatever you want to call it, the temporary nature of a delta variant impact? >> i think it is worse
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absolutely to the extent that it is a lot of pull forward stuff and we're heading into the fall and then you throw on delta variant on top of it. do you think it is sort of poorly for the broader market. but the market continues to grind higher but today notwithstanding. so label me a fool on that front. butch i think the picture in front of us could be concerning and the market will care one thing that you should watch and i've said this, the russell, the iwm, whatever you look at that, that sort of can't get out of it its own way and if that rolls over and we're close to it, in my opinion historically that led the broader market by a month, month and a half and that is something that i think we need to watch. >> for more on this, let's bring in joe la vorn from the americas great to see you again. >> thank you great to be with you guys. >> have we seen the best of it in terms of growth and how much of a slowdown should we brace ourselves for? >> we have seen -- the peak.
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i was calling for that several months ago and it reflects that this is a boom for growth. we'll see gdp up near 7% and historically if we grow 6 or more which we will for 2021, the economy in the following year on average falls by half of that. or grows half as fast. so if we're at 7, we would be at 3 1/2 and if we were at 6 we would be at 3. given the number of stimulus in the economy and the focus on consumer and the pent up demand as tim was saying earlier, we've pulled a significant amount of stimulus forward so next year growth will disappointing con sense us and i look for real gdp of sub 2% which will make it hard for the fed to taper and very hard for the fed to tighten >> joe, so let me ask you, i'm not quite sure the last thing that you said, but my question is about inflation and what if inflation was lower, does that help gdp or is inflation higher
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bet for gdp? >> i'm looking at real gdp so if we let inflation, that is a problem. and it reflects the fact that the economy is operating above its long-term potential. omb sees potential gdp at sub 2% so that is where we're bell next year but the inflation will -- i don't think we have a lot of inflation coming but we're going to have inflation, which we haven't seen yet is on the housing side specifically rents which lagged thissive run up in home prices so you get some moderation in goods, because tim is buying a lot of toasters, but on the rental side which is the dominant driver of inflation, they're going to see higher prices so we're going to be in a situation next year where growth will slow sharply and inflation is not like the '70s, but you'll see higher inflation than what we have been accustomed to so it is inflationary in some sense. >> do you think that inflation
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lasting through next year or until next year, is that transitory, joe. what do they think of the feds use of the term? >> i believe for much of the spring that this would be transitory because it was a post pandemic reopening and there was a lot of demand and supply couldn't catch up. and i will the case. and since then we've passed a $1.9 trillion package in march we're likely to pass a infrastructure bill. we may pass an american families plan which is another $3 trillion plus we're spending so much money and debt is high if, you look at the omb, they are forecasting deficit to gdp 13 points higher than stevio for the next five years and if that is the environment, that transitory inflation will become permanent. there is no way around it.
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>> but this brings us back to the fed which is where you're going with this. they're trying to monetize the deficit and they can't raise rates but i'm not asking to you make a call there. but what does this mean for the fed and what do you think they're seeing that we're going to hear tomorrow about this inflation that is out there. because i think the market, we talked about this, there is no way that you could dismiss the fed begin to taper even if the balance sheet continues to go in my view -- >> you're right. the fed is in a box. treasury supply has been very low this year relative to the size of the deficit because the treasury has run down the tax balance by over a trillion dollars. the treasury has to issue a lot more debt if they do the spending that they might get through. they will issue even more debt i don't see how the fed which is 45%, 46% market issuance since this pandemic began, i don't see how the fed could ever taper
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they're the big buyer. so monetary policy at this point is hostage to what happens on the fiscal side. what does congress do what it comes back next month. that's going to dictate to my mind where interest rates go and because we know the fed has used qe and stocks as the primary conduit of monetary policy >> great to get yu thoughts. >> thanks. >> mike khouw, what do you make of all of this, the fed in a box. is that so terrible? >> yeah. i think it is a pretty sticky situation of course. although we've seen in other economies that you could be in that sticky situation for a relatively long time but that doesn't necessarily mean that you have good real economic growth for a period. i mean, so we have a situation-we could look at places like japan where they've had massive debt issuance. they've been able to keep their rates relatively low but going along with that, is that they've had a relatively slow growing economy
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in our case, what we worry about, is that we have the slow economy and combine that instead of with a basically no inflation or even a deflationary environment like they experienced there with an inflation air environment and if we get that, that is quite unhealthy and i will say that as much power as the fed has, it could actually get a bit out of control. and i think that is how those things tend to happen. >> guy, your thoughts? >> joe is speaking my language agree. he does not believe that inflation pressure is going to be transitory. i agree with him there and if you see the stag flation environment and i've read textbooks but i don't think there is any arrow in the fed's quiver that would combat that. and one thing that i could continue to watch, the strength to the dollar has been interesting lately you wonder what happens to the dollar under the back drop that joe just talked about. that is something i would watch as well. >> coming up, chinese tech
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stocks under pressure as the country tightens the grip on the internet sector. we'll break down the fallout plus home builders crumbling as sentiment falls is this red hot run coming to an end. we're deconstructing that trade. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc we'll be back right after this tailor made or one size fits all? made to order or ready to go? with a hybrid, you don't have to choose. that's why insurers are going hybrid with ibm. with watson on a hybrid cloud they can use ai to help predict client needs and get the data they need to quickly design coverage for each one. businesses that want personalization and speed are going with a smarter hybrid cloud using the technology and expertise of ibm. nice bumping into you. millions of vulnerable americans struggle to get reliable transportation to their medical appointments.
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welcome back to "fast money. take a look at the home builders falling today. seeing the wort day in more than three months and these names were down. moft coming as sentiment fell to the lowest level in over a year. the sector under pressure from the rising cost of materials an skilled labor. let's trade this group that is a real issue for margins, karen two key components. >> yes well labor and raw materials. >> right. >> that is true. i think that we're not entering this wildly off sides with supply just excess supply. so i think of this as somewhat short-term i don't think that this is the end of the demand for houses so i mean, they've had an
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enormous run it is not shocking that they pull back some i look at the hgx which is home builders but masko and other related things and that is down and peaked at 500 and it is high 470. so i'm long and i have home depot and i have lowe's, and not surprising that the earnings were good enough we've seen that when expectations are really high, they have a good quarter it didn't matter but on home depot, it makes it look like the building demand is still there and so i think they'll be able to pass along prices and as long as rates are low, which they are, there is still demand for home building, for housing. >> before the pandemic there was a supply imbalance between supply and demand. there was much more demand than supply and that is why the housing market was hot then. it got hotter during the pandemic maybe this decline in sentiment, the lowest in over a year, maybe that makes sense.
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>> it does make sense. now you have figure out how to buy these stocks the ones you mentioned, topped out in the same day, mid may, may 17th, i'm probably off by a couple of days and they've all had drops. but the problem is doesn't feel like they've had the flush to the down side where you have the big volume days, the capitulation that we look for to find a bottom. i don't think we've seen it yet. so although karen is spot on and all of the assertions, the stock stocks have not been trading well and have we seen the day where everybody gets out i don't think we've seen it. >> what do you think of the options market in this group >> well we were talking about home depot and lowe's last friday for those that watched the show i know you were out on friday. so you didn't get to hear what we were talking about there. but i think a lot of what we were saying about those companies also is true for the home builders. i think an important thing to remember is when rates are low, the reason that spurred demand
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is is that in the absence of anything else, in a vacuum that is lowering the cost of housing and lowering monthly payments. but what has happened in addition to seeing rising input cost for home building in the form of labor and in the term of materials is that home prices have risen and some markets they've risen very sharply and what will happen when you see that is it is going to create a little bit of a shoftenning in demand as it gets out of reach often time for first time home buyers and i think that is what we're seeing so that is accounting for what is happening in the home building space at a price that is affordable. so for especially those home builders that are focusing on first time home buyers, i think this creates pressure in those inflated markets. >> we've gone after after hours alert on till ray. the ceo talking about the deal
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last hour on cnbc. >> what med men does for till ray, it gives us a great brand ultimately once legalization happens it gives us potential to own a great company that we could fake take into the rest of the world. canada has tinted and europe has opportunities for med men and i have a $4 billion jet to get to by by 2024 and this is the start of it. >> basically in a very short amount of time, med man losts a lot of the market value. it was not the most valuable publicly trading cannabis companies in the world and described as a slow burning dumpster fire not to long ago. >> they wasted so much capital and it was a poorly run business they built a brand and we've known irwin for a long time on cnbc and "fast money"
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and he's a brand money and till ray which is a canadian lp without access to u.s. markets has now given themselves a mechanism to begin to open up a huge addressable market in the u.s. that is what the canadian players are going to do. so for me, this is areally exciting moment for till ray and a big position in the aeft where the med men business for all of their failures, there is some very good assets in place and this is a company that a lot of people in the industry have been looking over these assets and that balance sheet for months and till ray was the most aggressive here. >> part of this is irwin simon and we know him from being the ceo of haines celestial and he had a stable of strong bands that he put together, the company had. >> he is a master as tim said of brand building and i think in some space that is really important. i mean, that is what med men did as you said. that is the value, right was the brand. and i think that someone like irwin, i mean, he'll have a good
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time one way or another >> all right we have a lot more head here on "fast money. here is what is coming up next the conference calldown continues, how should you trade. plus a real opportunity. one name falling hard today. but that is is not stopping karen from snatching it up we've got that anda lot more when "fast moneyrern " tus. this is the gap, that opened up when everything shut down.
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[swords clashing] - had enough? - no... arthritis. here. new aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. welcome back to "fast money. we're following new developments out of china tech stocks under pressure as regulators roll out new restrictions for the space we're in beijing with the
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details. eunice >> china has unveiled rules of engagement for the internet sector tightening how tech companies compete and handle user data. the move is meant to root out what beijing considers unfair tactics. using algorithms to influence user choices creating fake reviews, offering cashin sentives for positive ratings or spreading information about rivals china announced regulations to protect the critical i.t. infrastructure they need to conduct security review and prioritize purchasing network products an services deeming secure by beijing. and according to corporate filings, the chinese government has taken ownership stakes of wy balance and twitter way bull >> just when you thought it couldn't get worse it gets worse and then it gets worse again and then again, tim.
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>> and algorithm is big brother. so this is where the chinese government is probably feeling this is uncomfortable for them because ultimately that is what technology is supposed to do to track consumer trends and what they want to be pitched and a lot of consumers like that but back to the stocks and if you look at k web etf which is the chinese internet sector, down 60% in 120 days just as it was breaking out to all-time highs the sadness for a guy investing in emerging markets is that e.m. was just starting to break to all-time highs it took from basically pre-crisis and a lot of people have been hit head on by this. i don't think you could gauge and handicap the chinese government at this point and i think i went the last month is where i said enough is enough. i actually believe in these companies. but i don't believe in this environment and i don't think it
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is going to change. >> and at what point, karen, do you say a fundamental analysis doesn't apply to this situation. >> a couple of weeks ago when i bought puts and that sort of -- i'm like okay, this is my risk and i'll -- they're in the money so i will put that stock and have zero exposure agree with tim it is -- i just can't get back in it. i feel like i've lost money there. you don't need to make it back where you lost it. right. so i'll just let that position -- >> and for most investors, most say i don't need to do this. i want to invest in high-tech and mega tech companies and i don't need to do it with the chinese government as an unpredictable force here and i that is part of what we haven't seen yet in the flow of capital to the folks that are cross over investors who don't have to invest here and haven't seen the reflow of the capital. >> and where does that capital
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go and does it benefit tule here, mike, what do you think? >> yeah, i think it does i think it was a couple of months ago we were talking about baba even before the whole dd crisis shortly after that listed here, we have the jack ma disappearance that created some weakness for the shares. but before it really sort of went from bad to worse, there was a thinking that baba with the growth wait rate that it was trading at enormous discount but you can't say it is trading at a discount if you have no idea what the future looks like that is part of analysis we need to not just look at what has happened but thoughtful about what will happen and the chinese government is making that extremely difficult and the capital has to flow somewhere. a lot of the chinese companies right now are uninvestable does that help kathy wood's largest holding of tesla at nearly 11% obviously michael bury doesn't
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agree with that given the valuation. but i might take some of that money and put into one of tesla's competitors, one of the u.s. automakers and i think that is one of the places that that capital could and maybe should go >> saying that you can't use an algorithm im, guy, you could imagine if amazon randomly sent you stuff. that is what it will do. if t will figure out that you like 90s ties and might send you some listings for them >> yeah, i appreciate that it would be amazing if amazon did that because i've never bought anything on the internet as you know. but i understand what you're saying and it would make for an interesting environment. this is what i said last night i thought for the first time in a long time, alibaba set up well that is wrong. the move today was spectacular given what its done since halloween of last year and you ask at what point will the chinese lift their finger off,
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take their thumb off the market. what i can't believe is that at least until today it has no impact whatsoever on our markets. i understand that maybe that flow of capital made its way here but at a certain point with china being a growth engine for the world with way it's been trading, at what point does it effect our broader market. >> coming up you how one of our traders is chasing a big loser that is next and our next guest is breaking down how fin tech is putting the n'essure on the big banks. dot go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. instead of burning our past for power, we can harness the energy of the tiny electron. we can create new ways to connect. rethinking how we communicate to be more inclusive than ever. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change. faster.
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welcome back to "fast money. shares of the real real getting slammed today. the luxury resellers now down 36% this year. remember karen fast pitched this one and you also karen bought some more in today's pullback. why? >> so a few reasons. one is valuation the stocks come in a lot and the story to me hasn't really changed i know there was disappointment around earnings. i feel like it was the story delayed a little but not denied and so i really like the valuation. the one thing that i liked was one of my favorite investors,
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bill miller, seeing their 13-f, they added to their position as of june 30 i would not be surprised if we see them adding more the next time they file a 13-f but we won't see that for a while. so you look at enterprise value here, for them being the first mover in this space, a billion one or two of enterprise value, doesn't seem to me to be at all expensive. they did pretty much everything that they said they would. they were a little light on the mix of -- of what they sold. but to me the story is still in tech i like it. i bought some here. >> if i worry about consumer spending, based on data points so far and retail sales, could that be an impact on the real real or is this a different category of spending. >> i could take money argument that make it works in the benefits as people look for barg cans they'll find the real real karen could speak to this more
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intelligently than i could i think it works for the consumer we have a bunch of analyst come out and even though they lowers price targets you'll see from $20 to $35 so karen makes acompelling argument on valuation, the stock has not traded well at all for quite sometime you wonder if we've seen a companityulation or if that day is still ahead. >> mike, is this a holly index stock? >> it is if it was, then i would be behind karen all of the way it isn't, as far as i know, for all of the purchases that show up at our house from time to time, none of them are coming from real real i will say that this is sort of to karen's point, this is early days for this company and say that the revenue projections are in tact. for that kind of growth, i would have to say that i agree that the enterprise valuedoes look relatively reasonable here
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so some of the stuff that they sell may be a bargain and perhaps the stock is too but i might be looking for a little bit of a flush as guy was suggesting >> those bags or boxes whatever the stuff comes in are flying in and out of my house. and the gmv growth that they projected for next year of 30%, we know there was a great environment for them in a world in the last 18 months where all trends on the internet were accelerated. but it doesn't take away from the business that is there now if you look at the stock, by the way, the $12 level looks like a very interesting level based on where the stock has found major support in the past. coming up, one group is looking over their shoulders why fin tech is creeping up and putting pressure on the financials that is next. plus nvidia dropping as they gear up for earnings tomorrow. we'll tell you how options traders are plugging into this one. "fast money" is back in two. t'st milestone, the biggest accomplishment, the sale of a business,
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age before beauty? why not both? visibly diminish wrinkled skin in... crepe corrector lotion... only from gold bond. welcome back to "fast money. a tough day on wall street fin tech one of the groups getting hid hard with paypal and square and robinhood and coin base seeing red. the banking stops also dropping. next guest sees more pain as fin tech revolutionizes the space.
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jackie lease is now ceo of post house capital. jackie, great to have you with us. >> good to see you. >> and you wrote this wight paper being forged by fin tech and that caught on fire so to speak in banking circles so i'm wondering why do you think there is so much vc money being poured in fin tech, why can't traditional banks can't do that from within with their balance sheets and massive assets. >> great question. and the top 15 banks in the united states hold $13 trillion in assets so big banks hold huge balance sheets and fin tech still custody their asset at these banks. and they have a role but you're seeing a by fur kaks of balance sheet and fin tech and experience that customers wand to use.
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to see this into a high value and a low value trade. the customer front end is fast growth, highly profitable. balance sheet late and has no legacy infrastructure. and so the business models between traditional banking and fin tech are vastly different. >> jackie, it is karen thanks for being on. i understand what you're saying but we're not there yet. and we see vastly different valuations, right. and jp morgan for example, has 50 times as much assets under custody as a robinhood how is it that -- do you think this will continue, this valuation deferential that fin tech gets a forever growth multiple and legacy gets a melting ice cube multiple. >> today you see a massive amount of funding going into fin tech and so in the last ten years, there has been a ten-x increase
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into fin tech where in 2020 alone you're seeing $20 billion invested in the asset class and there is an incredible amount of invention. what you are seeing and this is why there is a difference in the valuations, is the growth, the profits, agility on balance sheet and no legacy. and so you have to look at the growth being achieved by the largest fin tech players and be absolutely blown away by that level of profitability and growth being achieved. and you could contrast that with the traditional banks with low single-digit growth and i think there is just a vastly different way that they're operating and growing their businesses >> who do you think is the most likely take out candidate, jackie, in fin tech? >> well, you know, i don't know who is a likely fin tech takeout candidate because these companies have achieved pretty significant scale at the top end. the companies that i see that are well positioned and frankly
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most of them have eclipsed the market cap of some of the largest banks today are shopify, square, paypal and when we see stripe go public i think square or stripe will have a comparable market cap when it goes public as well. they're just incredible platforms and have customers that love them and they execute well and great market fit. >> so who in legacy banking if anyone, should look over their shoulder at the relative upstarts thinking in ten years or however long they might be eating my lunch. is there anybody like that >> i think everyone in legacy banking should be looking over their shoulder and asking t themselves what are they defloiing that their customers love and they should go back to first principles and say do my customers love what we're doing. and if they don't, they should figure out how to build better products that customers love, have high mps scores and show the growth comparable to what we're seeing in fin tech
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i think if these banks aren't disrupting themselves, someone else is going to do it for them. >> one last question since you were a disruptor, who would you say to jamie dimon right now. what should he do in. >> i think it is easy. i think he should be buying a large scale fin tech so that he could disrupt jp morgan from the inside out if he doesn't do it, someone else will and i think he's got to let that fin tech run on its own and not screw it up. that is what i would do if i were in his shoes. >> i would love somebody to tell jamie dimon not to screw anything up. great to see you thank you. >> thank you >> jackie reese. what do you think? >> if you look at the technology leap frog, so many people are underbanked and fin tech is going to grow faster globally and the opportunity outside of this country and i realize we
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tend to get very focused obd banks here but i just i think these companies that have been mentioned today, the sofy squares and paypal, and paypal had i think built a major foundation in latin america before they did as much here or at least that was part of the growth so agree i think the global opportunity for these companies is even greater than what we talk about here. >> guy, of course karen has to ask what her boyfriend should be doing to survive this fin tech disruption but in your view, jp morgan or square here? >> it is interesting, well first of all, should drop the restaining order against karen given the choice between the two, think square still has most growth potential and is more interesting company. you could make an argument that jp morgan, where they're trading in terms of tangible book is getting a little ahead of itself with that said, not that i'm looking to play a game of would you rather, but i'll add sofy
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into that mix and i think there is a compelling argument that somebody for $15 billion could bring in sofy and have an anthony on their bench that could be a potential heir apparent > >> we have more when "fast money" returns does your vitamin c last twenty-four hours? only nature's bounty does. immune twenty-four hour plus has longer lasting vitamin c. plus, herbal and other immune superstars. only from nature's bounty. (judith) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is plus, herbal and other immune superstars. different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? don't you just ride the wave? (judith) no - we actively manage client portfolios based on our forward-looking views of the market. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions, right? (judith) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary,
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welcome back, a sneak peek at the cramer cam. jim thats talking to the ceo are road blocks. catch it on "mad money." shares offin nvidia, what is te setup. taking a look at the "options action," we did see calls outpacing puts by two to one but that is about the average over the last couple of weeks and the semiconductor did top out almost two weeks ago right now the options market is imimplying a move of about 5.4%.
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that is if line with the 5% that the stock has averaged over the last eight quarters and then the most active options were the 200 strike calls that expire this coming friday. we saw over 18,000 of those trade for over $3 a contract so buyers are betting that the earnings news could be good. but i would point out that those most active options contracts, average trade size was four con tracks on the institutional side, the september 180 puts, it seems like there is a split between how retail and institutional market participants are positioning themselves and of course we do have another full trading day to examine in terms of options flows tomorrow. >> guy, whose side would you be on >> we've seen nvidia with huge moves. we've seen a couple of times where they report and it is an absolute disaster. i think what you're hoping for is that move down to 180 that
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mike just talked about to that would sell up in terms of risk reward amd moved to 122 and the name that confused me is taiwan semi and someone needs to explain why that is traded to miserably in the last year. >> i think it is a combination of part of it an asset class dynamic. they've been thrown around with e.m. and big waiting in the eem and the vwo are the big etfs whether you believe intel is slowly turning that titanic or not, they are going after taiwan semi and not there in the short run. the valuation on the company not cheap. it is had an enormous run and it more or less mirrors that semiconductor index which is underperformed it but i still think you have a case here where there is an argument that people are concerned about the longer term growth here. >> good thing we have an
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emerging market specialist in the house. >> it comes in handy there are certain moments. >> it really does. for more "options action" tune in on friday at 5:30 eastern time up next going for gold, the $50 million mystery around palantir we'll explain enfawh "st money" returns. trading isn't just a hobby. it's your future. so you don't lose sight of the big picture, even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim trading™ is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform full of customizable tools. dedicated trade desk pros and a passionate trader community sharing strategies right on the platform. because we take trading as seriously as you do. thinkorswim trading™ from td ameritrade. because we take trading as seriously as you do. hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different.
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welcome back to "fast money. call it a $50 million mystery. palantir buying more than $50 million worth of, get this, gold bars in august according to a regulatory filing, the company is able to take physical possession of the gold at any time with reasonable notice. we reached out to palantir to find out why they wanted gold on their books and they didn't respond. karen, you looked at the fine print. what did you find. >> it was in the 10-q talking about the august purchase. so this won't be on the balance sheet that they had in the 10-q. so we don't know huh they'll treat it we talked about bitcoin and how
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it will be on tesla's balance sheet and the fluctuation down, they would have to mark it down but not up i don't know if that is the same here i don't recall ever seeing this except for maybe a gold related company and that would be a raw material or a work in process or inventory or something it is interesting, it is sort of surprising its is kind of -- we're expecting a bitcoin. >> it is retro or something. >> it feels kind of like cia-ish. if you think about all about the relationship that the company has had with the government and where gold has always been this strategic reserve dynamic. but gold prices, this isn't a conversation about gold, but it probably is an interesting time to make a longer term commitment to gold in my view i realize bitcoin enthusiastsy why bother >> guy, give me your best conspiracy theory? >> notice i didn't buy the gold
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etf. they bought actual physical bars of gold. it is fascinating. listen, i could talk about this for an hour and we only have a minute left. but i would say, this is one of the days that you bookmark this is them saying central banks are out of control black swan event and good for them and my sense is you'll see more of that and dipping their toe into crypto as well. final trade time mike khouw. >> i would say that if we see this weakness follow through until friday which is options expiration you might want to contemplate picking up called in spy. >> guy >> it was last night, it is tonight. oracle made an all-time high today and closed i think in the green. orcl day two. >> tim. >> wee talked about demand and if you look at iron ore, there has been huge supply response when prices have been high not great numbers yesterday. rio tinto thrown around.
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like that one. rio. >> karen. >> i'm long target, they are reporting tomorrow so that is my final trade. i'm long right here. >> all right thank you for watching "fast money. see you again here tomorrow. "mad money" is up next, with jim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. m there is always a find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm trying to save you money my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me or tweet me. omg. home depot wasn't perfect. hold the presses yup, on the home improvement

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