they find religion in the face of the delta variant why wouldn't they think about tapering before we're at risk of another slowdown we'll see you tomorrow >> see you tomorrow. >> the averages are indicated. the ten-year, we'll see whether carter braxton worth is right. "squawk on the street" is up right now. okay ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. s&p looks to extend its win streak to six as a new round of companies raise guy dand, salesforce, snowflake, jackson hole kicks off, jobless claims and revised q2 gdp are in line one fed president tells cnbc it

is time to taper. >> we are keeping a close eye on covid. hospitalizations topping 100,000. that's the first time they've done that since january. >> and supply chain uncertainty, a number of retailers point to higher costs from manufacturing shortages and port backlogs. what rick rieder was saying about corporates and free cash flow and the guidance we're getting from the like force of salesforce and snow which you heard last night on your show. >> i'm so glad you went with what rick reeder was saying. that is the theme. the cash flow of these companies, salesforce, extraordinary. just making so much money. if you listen to that conference call you would say, one, it's okay to taper. two, this is something, new theme. europe is incredibly strong. europe is ahead of us in vacci vaccinations there's a lot of business being done in europe the numbers i'm seeing are

extraordinary from the continent and much better than the u.s. >> uk, germany coming back ceo yesterday has got business in those areas they went up and down sharply and now back. >> spain much better france better. >> delta's not going to impact -- have limited impact on the eu economy. >> look, basically you get a pass people have business as if it were -- there were no an anti-vaxxers. >> so you got europe hanging in. pboc promising liquidity, you've got infrastructure here. >> trillions. >> passing procedural hurdles. is it any wonder we're at 137. >> i got to tell you i think that speaker pelosi is going to get her trillions. the companies are getting their billions europe has turned in traumatic fashion, which had been a black hole for a lot of companies. china's going to provide liquidity. let's move on.

let's move on. let's just go higher. >> let's move on to what what are we moving onto? >> into the real world where business is great and we don't have to worry about the fed either way those who think this whole move is the fed, see, they're wrong because when you're listening to the companies like snowflake, frank slootman, wow, when you look at william sonoma where is canoeing another show tonight, hurt my feelings that's okay, . >> we're talking about snowflake right now. >> this man is doing 100% sales growth. >> now we're back to snowflake. >> i know you're jumping around. now we're on william sonoma. >> i'm just trying to get you to keep track so our viewers know talk about -- back to snowflake. >> okay. i went 100% growers for 500.

>> okay. that's snowflake >> snowflake, now i would like to have $10 billion companies in two years. >> william sonoma. >> yes, okay now i want to do five out of five quarters of plus 20% growth >> that's salesforce >> what is salesforce, so there that was last night. a giant tower in san francisco that is empty. >> it's empty. but you just got all those right. what is 56% growth of same-store sales growth >> what is ulta. >> ulta. >> last time was really just a corn cornucopia with the exception of auto desk. even splunk, which i've been concerned about, they were on "closing bell. they're switching their model so it's harder to tell, but last night was just one after another of greatness, and i found myself thinking, you know what jackson hole why don't you just climb mount

tee teeton. >> knock yourself up. >> i'd rather go to jackson heights than jackson hole at this point. >> a lot better restaurant there is, too. >> really? >> yeah. >> what kind of food >> all sorts really the mecca. >> jackson heights over jackson hole. >> main street versus whatever they do out there virtually or whatever. >> yeah, they're not even there. >> jackson hole is one of the poster children for wealth and equality in this country it's sort of poetic that they hold the symposium. >> and by the way, has only gone up dramatically since because so many people have bought second homes and/or primary residences because they feel like they can work remotely full-time. >> come the revolution, it's going to be a bad place? >> it is a beautiful place >> you think that's beautiful, the toughest man in business is frank slootman from snowflake,

the flying dutchman. he once did pretty much call me an idiot for not understanding his business model i studied it for like fives hours. >> he called me one too. >> frank said something to me last night that was extraordinary. he's moved to bozeman. he said the productivity -- pretty funny the productivity now is so great. why? because you can make people work sen days it's not a problem they can work around the clock they would go to the office and leave the office no more, now it's just work all the time, and you don't travel it's never been this good. this is a big boost to productivity work at home is a joke it's work. >> maybe why operating margins came in well wofabove. here's what slootman told jim. >> it is becoming the beating heart of the modern enterprise, the modern institution, digital

transformation, you heard that term thrown around once too many times, but that's really what this is, and certainly covid accelerated that because we were so upside down on so many things that data is the way we are parsing and observing what is going on in our world. >> he's -- let's just understand, let's see peacock, okay, customer they want to be able to push certain things to you. they get your demo, your information. but they don't violate your privacy. so you get served an ad that is exactly what is right, so it's the first real targeted in realtime, and they can do it for health care. they can do it for all sorts of verticals, a lot of financial verticals. you rent it basically. this is a consumption model. it's not a subscription model. some people criticize that don't bet against frank slootman $10 billion in sales since 2029. when you go into business now

you must expect that there's no time that you can't be on call from your ceo. >> that's an interesting point because so many ceos right now and we'll talk about covid and hospitalizations, so many are trying to make decisions right now in terms of back to work, back to office when, what hybrid is going to look like, mental health of their employees, whether or not it really is healthy for people to be working from home all the time, and then worries about losing people who are committed to remote work full-time. but not having people attached to the organization in a real way or a cultural way because i mean, you're talking about people who have been working at home from a year and a half and many who don't ever want to come back to the office. >> we have a quote from doug yearly the ceo of toll brothers. affordable luxury, they build the office, of course it's a home depot, and they just have to work all the time this is my definition of -- but

i'm probably an outlier. >> going back and forth with benioff at 3:30 in the morning >> you're going to regret all the time you work. it's all right. >> you know that >> i told you it's on my tombstone. >> you did. >> jim might be the one guy who says i wish i had spent more time at the office >> i wish i had spent more time at the office. i love this work from home, on weekends you can get people to do anything. it's really incredible. >> that's just not good. >> for who >> for people, it's not for -- >> for u.s. productivity, which is a huge thesis right now, and it's going to get us through the next five years. >> it's going to be so incredible the fewer number, "washington post" piece on -- >> believe me, so many ceos are trying to figure this out, you can cite all the productivity numbers you want, but what is being lost by not having people back in the office what is being lost in terms of problem solving, in terms of innovation, in terms of having people attached to an organization they feel some

loyalty to that's going to play out over time >> it could. it could >> and conceivably could be a negative you do have a lot of ceos -- it may default to their own personal preference. >> look at the upgrade of zoom today out of morgan stanley. >> the buy 360, goes to 400. the quarter is going to be better zoom, slack, and salesforce is now the new allies they're the allies and that's how you're going to communicate. you're going to be able to say whatever you want underneath your zoom picture. let's say you're talking to someone who's german, it translates perfect this is the new world. >> this to make some progress in terms of people in the office congregated together on zoom talking to people out of the office >> i was in a pretty big meeting in terms of six people, one guy on the screen, and we just -- like the one guy on the screen, forgot him entirely. >> yeah. >> he could do anything he

wanted >> so you don't buy the corporate darwinist idea that if i'm in the office with the boss and you're my rival and you're not in, i have the edge? my project gets approved >> that's a goldman thing. that's a goldman thing. >> it's also a blackstone thing ask a lot of other places thing. >> no one wants to work financial anymore. they get the second tier guys. >> i used to be able to get the first three guys when i was at goldman. i get the bottom of the class. they stay for three months and go to a hedge fund the top guys go to facebook and pal alphabet >> where does it leave us on vaccines, we have this fda approval of pfizer and moderna's submitted theirs for final approval more corporate mandates, more city mandates, the city of chicago today, and these vax requirements at concerts and restaurants and sports, lsu, the saints is that going to drive a stair

step >> the ceos i've talked to in the last 24 hours, actually had a pretty good read on people, the delta -- the change in health care is the one that's going to make people, that's it. not all these other things these other things will be able to be outliers, like changing your health care insurance. >> you do have a lot more -- once pfizer got full approval as well -- >> no, but that's important health insurance. >> but versus even a few weeks ak, a lot more corporations now are ready to say mandate, period. >> they feel like they can do it. >> one of the things that happened, frank del rio, no vax, no cruise, that's going to turn out to be the way of the future. look at 70% -- here's -- it looks like that gottlieb is going to end up being right. saturday night at like 11:43 p.m. was the peak. i'm being a little more specific than he is, but that's the peak.

that's it. what we didn't count on was that the companies would come down with hobnail boots. >> you know they used to come on and say we strongly encourage. that language is out now we say do you want to stay >> it doesn't sound like texas governor abbott's attempts to outlaw mandates are going to go anywhere. >> no, he's like the last guy. >> florida, the governor in that state. >> that guy has been completely marginalized by that federal court ruling. >> if gottlieb is right and we're right -- >> look at this list -- >> and infection rates start to come down dramatically is that another up for business in the economy? >> absolutely. that's the way europe's turned around i'm very excited. >> you are >> i'm very excited that gottlieb's going to turn out to be right again who is gottlieb? i know he's on the boards of illumina and pfizer. >> thankfully we signed him as a cnbc contributor, who knew

>> his matter of fact nature. >> he is just the rock of jib ral tar. >> he is, he is. >> the government, the shadow government, they know much more than the actual government i have to tell this, gottlieb was the greatest signup we ever had. he was like babe ruth going from the sox to the yanks. >> he's going to be asking for more money now price is going up. >> he's a .401 hitter. he's going to be cryogenically preserved. >> he's young. he doesn't have to worry about that. take a look at the futures they were green for most of the morning. we're going to keep our eye on some of the fed commentary that's rolling in. s&p's shooting at least for six days up, and we'll get to a lot of chip news, apple, adi, western digs, taiwan semi and more don't go anywhere.

and there you have it- woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet, i get that too and mine has 5g included. that's cool, but ours save us serious clam-aroonies. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself.

retailers are once again a big story today. mentioned william sonoma up this morning, dollar general, dollar tree under some pressure amid rising supply chain costs, which was actually a similar story at smucker, jim, which also warnings -- >> smucker's gross margins were te terrible dollar general, dollar tree, we know that they've got tremendous traffic. that's been one of the stories the traffic's been great, but they're not capitalizing on it

as they should have. these are shocking, frankly, because everyone's been saying the chatter had been this is where people are going. >> yes >> obviously if they're going, they're not -- they're taking the wood to dollar tree. and the dollar general i think that you have to go to a william sonoma where people are talking about the home she's talking about the investments in the home. she's digital first but not digital only, but she's talking about there's been decades of investment in tech in her company, so her supply chain is better, although she still said there are issues my favorite was best buy, which said, listen, we bought chip, we have our own ships i think that what you're going to have to start thinking about if you're in this business, is you're going to have to take it to yourself. you have to just run this thing. >> right, you've made this point, and i think it's an important one to come back to. those that are winning against amazon and those who have not yet figured it out >> you have to take a couple of big hits laura albert who's on today, she

decided to basically destroy some quarters and spent a lot on tech the woman who runs best buy, she took some big hits in -- >> what about the biggest one of all, walmart, where do we think that stands in terms of its true competition with amazon and on the retail front, obviously in so many different ways >> they're very happy with same-store sales they're experimenting with that very interesting insulin, you know, where they have their own private label insulin. that's the watch list that i came up with i attempted to have funny acronyms like faang. i'm not happy with where walmart is walmart plus is not picking up what it should because it's just not offering the value proposition. they're adamant that it is, but they've got a wall for something that is proprietary to walmart where they make it where you want to go to the stores

he should go listen to brian cornell. brian's a master >> we'll talk about nordstrom as well, downgraded again this time morgan stanley underweight after jpmorgan yesterday. we'll get cramer's mad dash, count down to the opening bell on a pretty busy thursday for august futures are mixed. we're backn mont ia me

tit's just been a phenomena quarter. look at this margin expansion. it's just amazing. we're more committed to expanding our margins than ever, and on top of that we're

continuing to deliver solid cash flow improvement, and it's really amazing >> time for the mad dash, mr. benioff says it's really amazing. you agree? >> yeah, i do, it was kind of a stunning quarter if you think about what this company's doing, this is not a small cap company. their last five quarters, you have to do a rolling cumulative summary, five out of five quarters has had greater than 20% growth three out of five, greater than 20% margin improvement there's 36 billion on the books from the -- you know, those performance rpo, which is not the run pass option but a way to be able to -- performance obligations. what i would say is the slack acquisition is looking already like a big success they picked up target and lowes, a bunch of customers. >> they're talking, what, high 30s percent?

>> 39. >> that's amazing. sometimes the cutting room floor gets you even better ones. robinhood, they've done a lot of good work with robinhood. >> salesforce has done with robinhood. >> what they're working on is what's known as one of mark's points of single source of truth, they're basically saying listen, you're going to get safety right you had a change orientation no more growth for growth sake i think he's had a major impact and talked about how he's been an investor. the areal takeaway is do you knw he's the biggest venture capitalist >> really, number one. >> when you say venture capitalist, a separate fund they're making at salesforce >> exactly. >> why are they doing that >> at this point it just happens to be a diaspora people who worked at salesforce, who mark just knows personally and he invests in them >> is that company money or benioff money? >> he doesn't care

he just gives everything away. >> it's company money and it's a really rather impressive group and then he does acquire a company, calls them the unicorns. >> remember when they had that huge -- the original, that was the move there, right, off that last quarter. >> right. >> and now they're almost -- yeah all right. >> doesn't have the big break he had with microsoft over linkedin. >> right >> that's never been repaired. >> never. >> never. >> when you put slack together, when you put tableau, they're -- slootman, zoom, that's another one of their companies they're up against the microsoft giant. >> all right >> take the allies over the axis. >> got it. we've got an opening bell coming up i always tell you right now because i want you to remember this, you can catch us anytime anywhere you can listen to and follow the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast you can listen to jim again make sense of what he's told you the first time do it. check it out

tailor made or one size fits all? made to order or ready to go? with a hybrid, you don't have to choose. that's why insurers are going hybrid with ibm. with watson on a hybrid cloud they can use ai to help predict client needs and get the data they need to quickly design coverage for each one. businesses that want personalization and speed are going with a smarter hybrid cloud using the technology and expertise of ibm. nice bumping into you. at usaa, we've been called too exclusive. because we only serve those who honorably served. all ranks, all branches, and their families. are we still exclusive? absolutely. and that's exactly why you should join.

experience our advance standards safety technology are we still exclusive? absolutely. on a full line of vehicles. at the lexus golden opportunity sales event. get 1.9% apr financing on the 2021 rx 350. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.

we're going to get at least to a half percent inflation by 2022 for that reason i think we want to get going on taper, get the taper finished by the end of the first quarter next year, and then we can evaluate what the situation is we'll be able to see at that point whether inflation has moderated and in that case, we'll be in great shape. if it hasn't moderated, we're going to have to be more aggressive to contain inflation. >> that's the st. louis fed president jim bullard on "squawk box" saying that the fed is, in his words, coalescing around a plan to begin the taper and he thinks powell will give us a quote, good assessment tomorrow of where things stand. >> about six years ago, jim bullard put out on a friday

night sirius xm interview, the exact opposite of what he's doing here, which is he dropped a bomb this is him doing what you always hoped, which is the guy saying we're approaching common sense. right now it's okay. if it gets hotter, we'll move. we're going to have to see what happens after these unemployment benefits roll off. i liked what he had to say he basically says, okay, take us off the table. we'll be fine. you do your business i like that, david. >> good, you've had your issues with bullard in the past >> not anymore i've made peace with bullard. >> i know you have >> it's like i said i made peace with darren wood, but i'm not on a first name basis with darren. >> you call him mr. woods. >> i'm just saying, james and i, we don't -- it's not -- i'm just saying i thought he did a good job. it's much more of a one way. by the way, if danbury is bought by exon, then all the pressure

will go away >> got it, right >> carbon caption. >> carbon capture is the most important story. >> very important, we've got to follow it more closely maybe we'll get down there to exon and visit a little more. >> do you agree with me? >> i do. >> from the fed, to exon, to the opening bell that was software company bloban, a celebration of their new listing. hr software and services company paychecks celebrating their 50th anniversary. by the way, george, esther george of kansas city sort of echoed bullard she said delta is a risk factor but if the framework is substantial further progress, we're doing that we're doing exactly that. >> the common sense that's coming from these guys is quite heartening it's nothing that the american business community has to worry about. that's why i keep emphasizing, focus on the business community. don't focus on the fed

the fed is not going to screw it up they're going to let you make money, expand your payrolls. inste in the end we're going to have more people in the country in the end biden proposes amnesty. >> you're talking about immig immigration. >> yeah. >> because we need -- demographically we need more working age people. >> that's been huge for the chamber of commerce and the national association of manufacturers. >> that will be such an important interview. i think we have to get used to the idea that the democrats and republicans are republicans are coalescing. >> the republicans want cheap labor. >> i don't mean to make that sound -- >> there's an element of the republicans that are very anti-immigration, isn't there? am i wrong in saying that? >> the business community used to be so important to the

republican party but nam is a -- look, that's an organization of what i would call middle of the road batmen types, how about that? >> i mean, we have yet to have any significant legislation on immigration in this country, reform, you know, with new laws in what's it been? george w. bush tried was close to getting there. >> this time i'm saying we don't have enough workers. maybe women come back to the work force after school starts i think we just need more workers. it's an incredible thing that we're doing trillions of dollars of job creation when we don't have any people to work. everyone's got a job who wants a job. >> we still have a very high unemployment rate. >> well, when the unemployment -- >> so you're talking about when things what? >> right now i'm competing at my restaurant offering $18 an hour

against people who are show up, don't want the job and are making $23 an hour because of the federal government >> well, that's ending and by the way, it continues to be very much unclear whether states that end it earlier have benefitted from a return to work. >> i completely disagree with you. >> carl has been following this closely. a lot of the data says it's not the case. >> are you going to go against uber isn't that the gig economy all three of them said to me that, look, once you take the benefits off, lyft, once you take them off you get an explosion of drivers who all need about ten hours additional revenue. >> yeah. >> i don't know. >> there definitely is conflicting evidence goldman has done a couple of charts that back your ideas. >> is it costen? >> there's two guys from titan right now.

costius. >> i tell you jim what's at a two-month high is jpmorgan 163 in the neighborhood. >> so glad you mentioned that. it's finally getting the multiple expansion people at home what that means is you're finally seeing this incredible franchise break away from the pack. let's understand, jpmorgan, even at 162 is selling at 11 times earnings that is unbelievable jamie dimon must just be just so lived. imagine he comes to work every day and says my multiple's ridiculous. >> you've been saying that for a very long time he's probably gotten over it. >> he doesn't get over anything. he remembers every sleight. >> that's true he does. >> i saw had that firsthand. >> really? been a long time >> i like the guy. i mean, there was a time when i criticized him on air. he wasn't thrilled, frankly.

goldman sachs, what do you think of the multiples of goldman? >> low >> seven >> you're good. >> thank you >> my god, seven >> yeah. >> now, the guy who's still upset about his multiple, by the way, that i think has no reason to be upset about it vus his contemporaries is james gorman he's thinking why is he 14 times earnings when he's kind of an investment adviser. >> right, he should have a higher multiple based on current revenue. goldman will tell you we've got a blackstone buried inside here in terms of what we are doing on alternative assets, permanent capital. >> who do you think has got the best model >> who do i think has the -- i'm not going to offer an opinion on that >> i know that you like sticky money. >> they do have sticky money, and they have made -- they have diverged significantly, although, interestingly, goldman and morgan stanley stock prices were up within a few percentages of each other.

>> he's doing such a great job when i look at these companies, i just think they can buy back stock. citi's a complicated story that i don't want to lump in with these others. >> we talk about citi being a laggard, a new ceo, relatively new this year. the only one with a truly global franchise, though, right i mean, really, that's where as a multinashtional, all that cas management stuff. >> mr. smarty pants. there's another company that has a woman ceo, that is worldwide, is having an amazing quarter, and i think is going to be known as the banker of the future. anna boutine from san tan dare starting to really grow, putting up some great numbers. have a really good fall, summer, fa fall, business is good she's going to be in the conversation when you talk about international banks.

the boutines are royalty. >> there's a couple of other silos. one dollar general, down 7% it's going to take you back to late july. comps were down a little bit better than -- a little less than we thought, and they do see the full year, 960 they raised the low end. overall, if you're a retailer and you don't overwhelm with positive qualitative comment, you get punished. >> yeah, i maean, look, they're not going to be in the nordstrom category that's a total other situation, david, nordstrom >> toto turn off the oxygen. i don't know what to do with nordstrom. on the eisenhower she had a good interview. >> yes, yes. >> but i've got to tell you that dollar general, all they did -- this is how you get punished

people are looking for 950 to 1020 they only took the 960 to 1020 that's the kiss of death obviously their forecast was not that good. again, does that say that food stamps are supposed to help them a lot of people felt that. a lot of people felt that the strapped consumer goes there but they -- i think they go to walmart. walmart did not have -- walmart's traffic wasn't that good walmart's grocery business is great. have you seen kroger >> not recently, no. >> that's a remarkable turnaround for the largest supermarket chain is fantastic now the largest grocer in the didn't is walmart. >> walmart, yeah >> guys, i want to talk spacs a little this morning. >> it was kroger of course i did want to come back to spacs, guys. this theme i hit on yesterday, enormous amount of shares being redeemed on deals that are closing. shareholders vote in favor but more of the shareholders than

not say i'm out of here. i want my 10 bucks two today, gwac with cipher mining 76% of the shares were redeemed. 76%. you had 87.9% of votes cast during the meeting representing about 57% of the outstanding shares as of the record dating voting in favor. deal's going to close, but it's going to close with a lot less cash than they had because 76% of the spac holder said i want my money back. tortoise acquisition 2, with volta industries, that's an ev charging company 96% of the votes cast at the meeting were in favor of approval, but 70% of the shares redeemed 70% said, no, we're out of here. and again, this is having the effect of reducing the minimum cash requirement some of them are below that, and then you need the company that's being required to waive it say we're going to be okay dealing with 70% less cash, at least

from the trust than we thought tha forbes is announcing it's going to go public through a spac. magnus opus, 630 million, that's net of tax benefits. this is what i'm talking about, right? 600 million of gross proceeds, and 200 million is coming from the magnus opus trust. that is assuming no redemptions. what if you get 70, 80% red redemptions on this. you're going to end up with a lot less cash. you throw the pipe in, and that helps. this is something we're watching closely. yesterday we featured a stock that faced an enormous short squeeze because it had incredibly high redemption, but voted in favor, and the deal closed today there's another one that i'm looking at bluw. take a look at the shares of this the meeting hasn't happened yet. we don't know whether there's an approved deal or not, but it's going crazy. >> this is the same phenomenon

i can only assume it was people who were short who are now worried you're going to get enormous redemptions the deal's going to close. you're going to reduce the amount of shares, hence you're not going to be able to cover or borrow that's the only thing i can come up with here. >> it's $183 million company, but that's not true, right because after a spac >> right >> they bring in, right, it's the share count changes. but in this case the share count, who knows where it's going to be because you got so many people. i don't know what the redemption's going to be. >> how do people favor something and tender against. >> you get a record date you get risk arbs but then sell prior to the close. >> right that's exactly right. >> it does happen, yeah. >> david, this is obviously the beginning of this trend. someone's going to have to figure -- >> redemptions are incredibly high, and that is having an effect of reducing the cash requirements the question is whether the

companies are saying, hey, forget it, and whether the sponsors are trying to renegotiate in some way on behalf of their holders or whether the sponsors are still so incented. >> is there a theme, though? >> you want to buy forbes? >> no. >> you actually know that business pretty well. >> "politico's" off the market you see axel springer buying "politico" today. >> i saw that. >> a lot of moves in media. >> these are all moves that are happening at breathtaking pace for an industry that is consolidating quickly but for what for who? >> i want to get you quickly on chips because the journal does confirm the taiwan semi is going to raise prices for their advanced products by about 10% look forward to paying a little more for electronics in the coming quarters. there's the western dig story. apple is considering hiking prices on iphone 13 to make up

for those chip prices. >> if this merger goes through with western digital, this would be a nightmare for everybody that uses flash, which is -- dvm and the flash are the two things that are basically the building blocks micron would have 15 everybody's price would be raised by this is it outrageous thing if it happens? well, i would never -- if i were a regulator, i would say you can't do it. it would make it so that prices would go up dramatically that's something you don't want if you're any company. >> but does it push out your projection that the chip balance equilibrium would be coming hopefully by the end of the year >> at this point now, there are people who source better than others chuck robbins has had some problems, sourced very well. i know david you're going to say, jim, what is it with you? ford has sourced better than gm. ford is going to have the chips it needs for the f-150

lightning, which is their best seller already without even having it in the market. >> right >> but i think that we should not lump together all of these companies. one of the things i'm interested in is global foundries there was a story that intel is essentially buying them. >> that hasn't gone anywhere >> i don't even know if it's true >> i don't know, i'm not sure either. >> but they'll come public and we'll get a better read on this industry it's the foundries taiwan semi is a remarkable company. we've got to preserve taiwan no matter what. taiwan is very pro-u.s the chinese do not want taiwan semi to be in the orb of the united states. >> i wanted to just end with activision blizzard, a rare update for atvi, stock down about 3.2% this year goldman sachs says it's one of its top non-faang 2022 ideas, and you can see that of course don't -- you know. >> based on what

the reclosing of the country >> they say that while there has been some recent media reports of workplace disruptions and even some high profile departures, game development teams are large. there's a lot of people, and these games have been in development for years. this speaks to how a significant number of developers would need to leave to derail the development process. >> i think it's true >> the first seven pages were about how work force -- >> did you also read the most recent amended complaint from the department of fair employment and housing in california, the one that includes charges that they are informed and aware that documents and records have not been maintained as required by law, including but not limited to documents remitted to investigations and complaints were shredded by human resource pers personnel. act vision is quoted here as saying with regard to claims that we've destroyed information

by she redding documents those claims are not true. read that lawsuit. >> amended as of a few days ago. >> i've known bobby since -- >> when has he been on, recently >> i've known bobby since he was 16 >> i've known bobby for a long time. >> well, maybe not that long bobby built an amazing company, and candy crush, that was a great acquisition, but these human resources issues are probably -- >> more than a human resource issue, they're getting sued by california for harassment and all sorts of other things. >> what are they going to do >> they're going to defend themselves, and we'll see where it ends up, but to say that bobby's not on the hot seat. >> bobby's totally on the hot seat what are you going to do put a special master in to see what's going on what are you talking about >> i don't know. >> it's not good i thought he might have put it past him until this. >> right >> because it -- goldman knows, look they have superior product,

great products obviously grand theft, and these are companies that are perceived as being sayonara, i'm going outside to do my work. >> what's happening in america. >> understood. >> by the way, you got some trouble on twitter with this immigration stuff. >> don't read twitter. >> illegal immigration illegal. not legal. >> twitter man, i was with someone last night who said you're the most polarized force on twitter. >> you bring us into it. >> yes, i don't think twitter would deceisagree with that. i'm a financial guy. what did i do? >> i love talking finance, can we -- maybe we can avoid these hot button issues. you bring us into it every day. >> yeah, i do. but we have to move on got somebody in my ear >> we're going to be okay. i believe. >> we are going to be okay. >> when we come back, the

jackson hole's fed summit on wall street's radar as we tread a little water here. don't miss the cnbc interview with bob kaplan. a look at the bond report as we keep our eye on treasuries tomorrow morning ten-year around 1.358. oil's notable dragging lower after three very solid days on crude. back in a moment. >> is it hot in here today the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients

in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential.

what the world needs now... is people. people who see energy a little bit differently. where a switch to cleaner power means a more resilient grid... with renewables and gas power providing energy whenever it's needed.

because seeing a more sustainable world isn't far in the future. we're building it... now. ge building a world that works. today. a couple of pieces about the rally potentially running out of team, technical challenges of getting past 50k over the longer term also cnbc with a good piece about tiktok reportedly removing some crypto influencers, which maybe we will talk about a little bit later on today. still to come, the national association of manufacturers president jay timmons will talk

about some infrastructure legislation, vaccine mandates and more dow's up 40. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ return to rugged. the all-new ruggedly redesigned 2022 nissan pathfinder. ♪♪

baaam. internet that doesn't miss a beat. the all-new ruggedly redesigned 2022 nissan pathfinder. that's cute, but my internet streams to my ride. adorable, but does yours block malware?

nope. -it crushes it. pshh, mine's so fast, no one can catch me. big whoop! mine gives me a 4k streaming box. -for free! that's because you all have the same internet. xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that?

crossing the tape, a couple moments ago, john kirby says we can confirm an explosion outside the kabul airport. casualties, he says, are unclear at this time we will provide additional details when we can. also, the tape saying that the president has been briefed on that explosion if we get further details, we will bring it you to we see some live pictures halfway around the world. time for jim and "stop trading." >> etsy, people thought when we had an reopening in the country that would be fewer people making crafts on etsy and maybe people start going back to the mall i think etsy is going to be a company that came out of this with a new found group of people, new found work force, empowered work force, mostly women making things on etsy. many people have fallen in love with it. take a look. josh silverman, a lot of people shorting this, betting this is a casualty of going back to work outside -- no.

it is now part of our firmament. believe me, when you have a father's day, mother's day, any holiday -- i'm on the site constantly and it's not just because it's down a block from me when a company and it's a winner i am glad they won women 89% of the people who make stuff. >> heinel for a small business how about tonight? >> workday and upstart. another company, they make artificial intelligence -- you hire them, this is the wave of the future you will be able to get rid of -- have more access watch upstart. brilliant company. company. you heard it here first. >> okay. i'll watch see you tonight. >> see you later >> i do not mock you are you mocking me >> why do you hurt me? >> one of my favorite lines. >> see you at 6:00, jim, "mad

money. when we come back dallas fed president robert kaplan. s&p off a touch, back to 4491. (upbeat music) - [announcer] introducing the grubhub guarantee, our promise to deliver your order on time within the delivery window and for the lowest price compared to other apps, or you'll get back at least $5 in perks. ♪♪

♪♪ ♪♪ (vo) this is a place for ambition. a forge of progress. a unicorn in training. a corner to build a legacy. a vision for tomorrow. a fresh start. a blank canvas. a second act. a renewed company culture. a temple for ideas. and a place to make your mark. loopnet. the most popular place to find a space.

you have the best pizza in town and the worst wait times. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪

good thursday morning. another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker and david faber at post 9 of the new york stock exchange morgan brennan has the morning off. a good round of corporate earnings but more chop as we keep our eye on jackson hole dow up 30. s&p is back, a lot of that gain, most of it, is salesforce on the dow, david. >> all right we are 30 minutes into trading here he are three names we are keeping a close eye on dow component salesforce shares up 4% or more after the company reported better than expected results it issued an upbeat outlook as dps continue to shift applications to the cloud. dollar general the other way it is down the company issued full-year guidance below street estimates. hurt by rising supply chain costs, among other things. and we end with another retailer

having a good day. that is its stock price up 11% williams sonoma is up because, well, it beat on the top and bottom line and it also raised its outlook that says pandemic-induced focus on homes and home decor, leslie, you know something about what's going on, with the recent move, it's continuing. >> i know about that all too well so does my bank account. let's turn to the broader markets. the dow up for the fifth day in a row as investors remain cautious ahead of powell's speech earlier on "squawk box" we heard from two fed officials talking about none other than inflation. >> you look at the job gains that we saw last month, the month before, you look at the level of inflation right now, i think it would suggest that the level of accommodation we are providing right now is probably not needed in the scenario so i would be ready to talk about taper sooner rather than later. >> i think we are going to get at least 2.5% inflation in 2022,

maybe higher than that, and there is some risk to the upside on that. so for that reason i think we want to get going on taper, get the taper finished by the end. first quarter next year and then we can evaluate what the situation is, we will be able to see at that point whether inflation has moderated and in that case we will be in great shape. if it hasn't moderated, we will have to be more aggressive to contain inflation. >> joining us now is jpmorgan's head of research bruce and mike santoli. thank you, gentlemen, for joining us today bruce, you know, we got to get going on taper sounds different than talking about tapering. how do you read these comments from this morning and any major expectations or things to look for throughout the remainder of the week with regard to the virtual jackson hole symposium >> i think you are seeing one wing of the committee that clearly wants to get going on

tapering very quickly. but if you look at the last fed minutes you see diversity of opinions and you think the center point of the committee is really to be somewhat patient here, to get going late in the year, but to not really start that process immediately and also not to be signaling it i think at this weekend's jackson hole get together. >> mike, the markets seem to b reflecting kind of this polarization as well do you believe that any type of activity or commentary tomorrow especially from jay powell would be market moving is there any type of surprise that the markets may not be anticipating right now in terms of the way things are priced in? >> i think if he was unexpectedly hawkish and seeming to be in a hurry along with this faction of the, you know, the committee, yes, i think that's probably the only thing they could do because since they actually made the conference virtual and since, obviously, we have been dealing with a little bit of the deferral of return to

work in offices and things like that for the delta surge, i think we baked in this idea that bought ourselves some time maybe at the september meeting they say we are going to get going. since the last fed minutes i think the street has said, fine, november they are going to start the taper and that's probably baked in i am not in the camp that says the reduction in monthly purchases that that represents is material to what the markets do it's about the psychology of how that starts clock on eventual tightening move and why we are in the cycle, definitely mid-cycle at that point. >> bruce, you see rate hikes starting is sometime in 2023, a few years off at this point in time you also have a forecast for global gdp to grow nearly 3%, but you say that the richkts h risks have been increasing, that they are skewed to the downside. how are you factoring that into your calculus, especially as it pertains to what we're seeing with regard to the delta variant, what we're seeing with regard to geopolitical risks, and then, of course, against

this backdrop of kind of macro policy that we are focused on this week? >> i guess i'd make three points on growth there seems to be a lot of momentum in terms of reopening, getting growth going, stimulus on the policy side. but what we've seen more recently is a sentiment, supply constraints, continuing to be quite significant here so we actually have global growth and u.s. growth both running in 5 to 6% range in the second half of this year i think risks are a little skewed to the downside, although that's still a very strong profile. i think on the inflation side we agree that inflation is elevated now. it's not going away. the supply pressures are going to stay in place it is going to calm down next year, but i don't think to comes down to where the fed is forecasting it to and we think there will be pressure on the fed. but the other point here is until the labor market is fully healed, and i think given the fed's current desire to have an

inflation overshoot on a sustained basis, they are going to be slow so i take a window for fed hihike starts late 2022, i think early in '23 there is a lot that will happen, but i don't think we will get fed hikes the next 12 months. >> mike, where does that leave us onthe ten-year? we have had a couple of big desks, goldman and jpmorgan, trim their year-end ten-year forecast to 1.75 why is that? >> well, obviously, you have seen this very resilient bid in treasuries the chase for yield. this idea that, by the way, when tapering has happened in the past, when qe rounds have ended in the past, it is actually meant that yields went lower on the long end so you flatten out the treasury yield curve. a lot of that might be getting in the psychology of the street and just observing exactly how much of a pool of buyers that has remained now, i don't know that

necessarily this last little move that we got under 12 in the midyear to the mid 1.3s, that shows you the market is relaxing from deep slowdown fears and the rest of it but it seems like it's at a pretty skrushl spot. if you look at the chart, above 1.5 might be a little bit of a chaeng or take a couple of tries. so to me i look at investment grade corporate debt it's at 2% right now it's not really a challenging level to equity valuations but they probably have seen their best levels, their lowest levels in terms of credit spreads and things like that that's why it comes down to where the earnings growth is and not so much putting more generous multiples on the existing earning stream. >> speaking of earnings growth, reuters noting this morning that the gap between how u.s. consumers are feeling about the economy as -- and that relative to wall street expectations for profit growth and s&p 500 companies is at its widest in 13

years. which metric are you taking more cues from in order to kind of assess where the economy is and where it's headed at this point? >> well, right now i think we have an interesting contrast between sentiment, which has moved up a lot in the last six months, but then has taken a modest step backwards in the last month or two. and i think we have to take both of those signals seriously i think there is a lot of momentum in the economy. i think we are going to have strong second half growth. we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that there is a shift in sfaiz begoing on about how we wl put the virus behind us. that is having some damaging effect on growth and i think it is going to take something off of what has been boommy expectations for where we will be the next six months or so >> it is certainly altered consumer behavior. we will see how much so and whether and what is perpnent at this point in time we appreciate you being here on an important week. bruce cass man, mike santoli,

thank you both. the pentagon confirming there has been an explosion outside kabul airport where thousands of people have gathered to tdo evacuate the country. it was caused by a suicide bomber and there are casualties. the president has been briefed interestingly, market came a little bit lower on that news. in recent days we have had several countries, including the british, warning of the danger of an imminent attack. even though the white house this morning has said we airlifted about 100,000 people, this is going to create problems for the few that remain. as jen psaki said yesterday, the white house trying to reach out through texting, whatsapp to say if you are interested in leaving, you have to do it now and here are some ideas on how to get to the airport. >> yeah, it's just heartbreaking what appears to be kind of this window of opportunity to evacuate if need be, kind of narrowing at this point in time.

i think it was also the british urging those who do want to evacuate afghanistan to do so through its borders at this point in time, that the idea of doing so from the airport has become increasingly dangerous and the, you know, urging them to assess other options on that front. as we head to a quick break, a look at the roadmap for the rest thor hour investors pulling out of cathie wood's exchange traded funds we will take closer look. plus, the ceo of the national association of manufacturers jay timmons on the infrastructure bill, vaccine mandates, and a lot more. and a first on cnbc en interview with robert kaplan this as jackson hole goes virtual this year. got a big show for you still ahead. don't go anywhere. and greatest memory!stle - but even i'm not as memorable as eating turkey hill chocolate peanut butter cup ice cream with real cocoa. well, that's the way the sandcastle crumbles. you can't beat turkey hill memories.

you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

welcome back to "squawk on the street." new data on hotel occupancy. our seem a mode a has that for us >> and what's clear from the data is that the delta variant is disrupting travel plans once again a decline in the number of traveler's checking into hotels for the fourth consecutive week. this as more states update their travel advisories. hawaii, one of the strongest hotel markets with an occupancy rate around 73%, the governor there urging tourists not to visit amid a rise in covid infections, demanding big cities like san francisco and new york remains weak at 50 to 60%.

now a number of hotel owners i have spoken to in the last few days say they are starting to see business travelers cancel trips for this fall. >> we have seen a handful of groups that have canceled in september and october and november because of the delta variant. >> now, while all of the hotels are in the u.s., primarily texas, he is watching the international data to see how quickly travel rebounds once covid cases peak there and that really is the key question for the cruise lines as well yes, these stocks are up big this week on the pfizer fda news, but the latest surveys from cruise critics, the bookings data, suggests travelers are thinking twice about sailings due to the delta variant and that could push back the return to pre-covid levels and how quickly the cruise lines can bring more ships back to sea. >> thank you very much sticking with that theme of vaccine mandates, the national

association of manufacturers making the decision in july to require all pemployees to be vaccinated by september 20th joining us is the national association of mavers ceo jay timmons. it's always a pleasure to have you. good morning. >> good morning. good to see you, carl. >> so you have said, the group said this decision on mandates was not taken lightly. we talked about it for a long time we worked through a lot of issues, but we saw it as the next evolution in the ongoing workplace safety posture is that how you see it, as workplace safety >> absolutely, carl. look, i am so crowd of the team. after all, manufacturers were responsible for the vaccine. we were responsible for getting us to this point where we can protect our fellow citizens as well as ourselves and our families we had a 90, i believe a 94% vaccine acceptance rate before we imposed the mandate and since then i'm happy to say

my time doesn't even know this yet, so if they are watching, they will find out, we have achieved 100%. and i am thrilled because our team cares about not only themselves and their families, but also the people that we interact with every day. our 14,000 member manufacturers across the country it's the responsible thing do. i am happy that team nam came through. >> what do you think will happen in hr dents where a worker says make me. either fire me or change your mind and the company has to say we have to let you go? >> well, look, i mean, i hate to say it, but we were prepared to do that at the nam and we understood there might be those who felt that they weren't going to get the vaccine and they didn't have a medical or religious reason for not doing so we didn't have that issue. i don't think that is going to happen in most cases

it is a consideration. let's be upfront about it. we have a very severe worker shortage in our country right now. it's why the nam has been so focused on our creators campaign to attract that next generation of manufacturing workers, and we are in competition now all across every sector for workers. but in the end it's better to have live employees than sick or dead ones. so this is something that i think all employers are going to be grappling with. we see our manufacturing members, cleveland clips just announced today they have a 75% acceptance rate because they had a great incentive program. we have tyson and pfizer and texas instruments that have put out a vaccine mandate. i think you will see more companies trying to do the right thing. >> that was my question. what you are seeing from your members. you mentioned a number of them but do you have a sense overhaul in terms of where they stand,

and/or more and more will start to mandate vaccines amongst their employee base? >> what i hear from every single ceo that we represent is their number one concern are their employees, the health of their employees, the health of their employees' families and their communities. they are grappling with tough issues, david. they don't call it novel for no reason this is something we haven't experienced in this country for over 100 years 100 years ago we didn't have the technology and medicine and science that we do today it's become political at times but it doesn't need to be. the last administration through operation warp speed helped develop a vaccine in just record time with all the safety protocols in place this administration is executing the vaccinations across the country. it's a bipartisan effort, a nonpartisan effort, i would say, to make sure that our communities are safe, that our country is safe and the world can return to normal

it's the only way it's going to happen we though that >> speaking of returning to normal, jay, i want to ask you about this trifecta of issues at the manufacturing sector is enduring right now you touched on the issues with regard to the labor supply there is supply chain issues as well as higher prices factoring into the sector. what are you hearing from members with regard to these issues and the transient nature of them? do they believe they are more enduring, and what are some. ways in which the issues will get streamlined and worked out >> well, right back to the worker shortage. one of the reasons that our sector so focused on attracting that next generation and inspiring that next generation to be a part of the manufacturing work force is because a shortage of workers leads to all of those issues that you talked about. so if you think about supply schan shortages, why is that happening? part of it certainly is the

pandemic and the ability for trade to move freely, but you also have issues of not enough people at factories producing the component parts that go into finished products. what does that lead to that leads to higher prices. so it's a supply and demand issue. jim cramer earlier today talked about a focus on getting this worker shortage under control. he mentioned, for instance, one possibility of helping to deal with this is immigration reform. and that he thinks that there is a bipartisan -- foe tension bipartisan solution to that. i believe there is as well we have been pushed that for a number of years. we think that's one thing that will help get the economy back, and deal with some of these issues >> finally, jay, how are you thinking about infrastructure right now? it's been applauded by a lot of business groups in the beltway, although they are a little more

skeptical about the budget framework that might go along with it. how important was what happened in the last few days >> well, i think it's very important. look, i think it was an extraordinary achievement by the senate, a bipartisan achievement by republicans and democrats to get that bill across the line. we said from the nam from the start that we would see probably about $1.2 trillion without punishing and akai rchaic tax increases that would take us back to when we weren't able to invest and grow wages like we have for the last three years, i guess. we think that this bipartisan solution needs to get across the finish line. >> this is a very big priority not only for the president, but also for the american people we know that can get done. you hinted at the reconciliation package that may be being developed and we have some serious concerns we will certainly poppose any o

the archaic tax increases that have been discussed. we are hearing between 1.8 and $3.5 trillion on job creators in america. that would fake take us back to before the 2017 tax reforms where, afterwards, as i said, we were able to have record investment, record job creation, record wage growth why would we want to undo that we are watching that very closely. we will oppose the bill with any of those factors in there. we will oppose the pharmaceutical issues that are in those bills that will stop us from being able to deal with the next pandemic, and we are going to oppose the labor provisions that would drive a wedge between management and our workers there are a lot of things in that bill we don't like. but infrastructure, bif as it's called in washington speak, that needs to get across the line right away it's an accomplishment we can all be proud of. >> covered a lot of ground today. really grateful. thank you very much. jay timmons. >> thanks for having me. >> by the way, update on what

we're hearing out of kabul multiple reports now, guys, that at least three u.s. troops have been wounded in what is being called by at least one official a suicide bomb outside the abby gate at the kabul airport according to u.s. officials. so we will keep our eye on that. no further confirmation beyond what the pentagon press secretary said a few moments ago. >> yeah, they say that u.s. citizens at the abby gate, east gate or northgate should leave now immediately in light of the violence that is taking place outside of kabul airport meanwhile, s&p down about 7, 4488 more "squawk on the street" continues in a moment. - [announcer] at southern new hampshire university, we never stop celebrating our students. from day one to graduation to your dream job, that's why we're keeping your tuition low for the 10th year in a row.

- [student] the affordability and the quality of education, it can be enough to change your life. - [announcer] as a nonprofit university, we believe in making college more affordable for everyone. - southern new hampshire university, it was just amazing experience. - [announcer] find your degree at snhu.edu.

[grunts] ♪ ♪ [grunts] pnc bank believes that if a pair of goggles can help your backhand get better... yeah! ...then your bank should help you budget even better. (laughing)

virtual wallet® is so much more than a checking account. its low cash mode feature gives you at least 24 hours of extra time to help you avoid an overdraft fee. you see that? virtual wallet® with low cash mode from pnc bank. one way we're making a difference. (chimes) baaam. internet that doesn't miss a beat. that's cute, but my internet streams to my ride. adorable, but does yours block malware? nope. -it crushes it. pshh, mine's so fast, no one can catch me. that's because you all have the same internet. xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that? it's time for "etf spotlight. kathy woods arc invasion fund, flat on the year after volatility in the interim. a new piece highlighting that investors have pulled a net

$2.7 billion from the funds since the end of june. this, of course, as wood dipped back in the chinese names this week through her fintech etf take a listen to what she told "tech check" a week ago. >> we have never said that chinese names are uninvestable what we have said is because of the social engineering, it seems, or reengineering that's taking place in china, that the valuations associated with these companies are damaged and we don't think they are going to go up anytime soon. >> so remember, guys, this comes after she basically pared back chinese exposure last month. now getting back into names like jd.com taking 59,000 shares in that name as well as tencent holdings, 235,000 shares in tencent. this is through her fintech etf, not through their flagship innovation fund.

but interesting nonetheless especially in light of those comments last week. >> it was a good trade the stocks have been, despite today, generally strong. a bit of a rebound this continues to be an overall concern with the chinese government when it will end the data privacy efforts most recently, are scaring a lot of investors as well. and there it's not just the names you're looking at this it's bytedance, which is a private company with a potentially enormous market value held by many hedge funds enormous position at general atlantic as well one wonders what it meant for the valuation of that company. it's private, but if it were in the public markets or how it's valued so we're keeping an eye on those. remember, a lot of hedge funds also own privates. an they are liquid a lot less liquid than those

names and they are getting hit also. >> yeah. and we saw data today, speaking of hedge funds, interesting to see the types of investors that are kind of waitiding in the was and are brave enough to get back not chinese names because a third of hedge funds held long exposures to chinese adrs at the end of the second quarter. they suffered dramatically from the sell-off in chinese names that really began in earnest shortly after the quarter ended. now we see evidence of more retail investors getting into these names. it will be interesting to see if the hedge funds are well clearly, arc invasion, arc fintech, huge retail investors are huge fans of cathie wood so it is interesting to see the mir earmirroring effect. >> some expansion plans in the u.k. there is a lot of cross currents regarding the chinese names. by the way, we took a little bit of a spill here.

s&p was down about 15 a moment ago. when we come back dallas fed president robert kaplan is going to join us when we are back in two minutes. folks the world's first fully autonomous vehicle is almost at the finish line today we're going to fine tune the dynamic braking system whoo, what a ride! i invested in invesco qqq a fund that invests in the innovators of the nasdaq 100 like you you don't have to be a deep learning engineer to help make the world a smarter place does this come in blue? become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq protect your pet this flea and tick season with chewy.

does this come in blue? find everything from flea collars and sprays, to prescriptions that keep pests away. chewy has what you need to keep tails wagging and pets itch free all season long. shop pet prescriptions and more at chewy.com today.

welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm rahel solomon. your willy wonka news update the pentagon saying there has been an explosion at a gate to the kabul airport and reports of gunfire. reuters citing u.s. officials who says it appears to have and a suicide bomb and up to three u.s. service members are among the injured. the abp saying a witness saw several people killed or woundled president biden has been briefed. the explosion hours after u.k. officials warned of a, quote, highly credible threat of an attack at kabul airport by islamic state militants. the u.s. and other western countries warning people to stay away from the airport with

president biden's august 31st withdrawal deadline five days away evacuation efforts are in the final stages we will continue to follow this story throughout the day and bring you more details back to you. >> thank you. now let's get to our steve liesman alongside dallas fed president robert kaplan. steve, take it away. >> thanks very much. we are joined as part of our continuation jackson hole coverage by robert kaplan, the dallas fed president thanks for joining us. >> good to see you, steve. >> it isn't normal that we have the pleasure or the need to have a president on twice in a couple weeks, but things are moving relatively fast right now. i want to just get your sense right now of the outlook for policy you had been among those, the first really, to call for an earlier taper as soon as september, and i want to know amid the recent concern about the delta variant do you still stand by that call

>> yeah. so we've spent with this resurgence, we have spent the last week, ten days really redoubling our efforts to talk to contacts, do real-time surveys, looking at high-frequency data on mobility and engagement, and based on everything i'm seeing i don't see anything at this point that would cause me to materially change my outlook. i'll continue to monitor this for the weeks leading up to the september meeting. but based on all that, it would continue to be my view that when we get to the september meeting we would be well serve today announce a plan for adjusting purchases and begin to execute that plan in october or shortly thereafter. >> robert, tell us about the contacts you have. it's so interesting because the dallas fed is in such a diverse region used to think of it as only oil. that's not the case anymore.

you have high-tech, manufacturing, energy. what are they saying about how the delta variant is affecting the economy down there >> so we're seeing the impacts vary by industry if you are in the travel industry it goes without saying airlines, hotels are seeing some negative effects but by and large, what we're hearing from contacts is they are weathering this resurgence at least as well as previous surges and many are telling us that the impact on their business is more muted so we are seeing resiliency. i think the reason we're seeing that is because we have a much higher percentage of the population that is vaccinated and we have more tools at our disposal we are seeing consumers and businesses are just becoming more adaptable, more resilient, and i think people are accepting this is going to go in fits and starts this may be -- not be the last

resurgence we see. but people are using vaccines, masks, testing and all of our tools to manage through it so we're seeing resiliency >> to that point, when we talked in august a year ago at the first virtual jackson hole summit, it was amid a surge. do you concur with what fed chair powell said, that we are sort of learning to live with it i understand that comes with a lot of loaded sense that you don't care about the people getting sick we know that's not the case. from an economic standpoint, does it seem like the economy is really learning to adjust and people are learnk to adjust >> yes that is what we're seeing. now, i spent a lot of time with hospital leaders and they are in a very challenging situation right now and i have been in meetings with mayors, county judges, along with hospital leaders where they are urging community leaders to do more to

use the tools we have, but certainly, yes, what we are seeing is businesses and consumers are learning to adapt and go on with their lives and they are realizing that this is not going to be neat and clean or a straight line it's going to go in fits and starts, and they are getting adjusted to that reality >> robert, what is your sense about how the 120 to billion dollars in asset purchases are impacting the economy? are they helping is it keeping interesti rates down is to making it more possible for people to invest or is it driving up inflation >> these purchases are designed primarily to stimulate demand. and that was very appropriate in 2020 it was appropriate in the early parts of '21 before we had vaccinations and widespread vaccinations at this point we don't have a demand problem what i'm seeing is, yes, we are seeing shifts in the mix of demand in the economy, but we're

seeing pretty strong resiliency of demand, and that continues to be our outlook and we'll continue to monitor that my concern is along with that, we're seeing unintended side effects. excess risk-taking and particularly in the credit markets. you are seeing some distortions and excesses that i think are going to need to get normalized. we have talked about the housing market and in particular there is going to be a ripple effect from housing on rents and how those rents effect low/moderate income communities so i'm concerned about the excesses and balances and unintended side effects. i think we will be a lot healthier if we consume, wean off these purchases and it will put us in a lot better position going forward. >> robert, when you say cred markets, do you mean like high yields at the spreads athere? >> i have a markets background

so i particularly start first to look at credit spreads credit spreads are historically tight. in some cases high-yield credits have negative real yields. that i'm not sure is likely to be sustainable, and i think you will there will need to be some adjustment i think the sooner we start gradual process, we are well set up to adjust to it i think we communicated that a taper is coming. but i think we will be healthier as we work through that adjustment >> robert, your colleague jim, who we had a chance to talk to this morning, laid out an aggressive timeline for tapering frm he wants it done by the first quarter of 2022. is that your thinking? and then tell us your thinking about the pivot or a potential pivot to rate hikes thereafter. >> all right i will take those in reverse order. i have explicitly and i will

continue to divorce considerations for asset purchases from our considerations on the fed funds rate the f the fed funds rate is a decision that will be made down the road. yes, my first rate hike in my forecast is in 2022, but i'm not making that decision today we will make that decision down the road so i think that's a separate process. in terms of timing, i would prefer to start soon, but do this gradually and gradually for me means plus or minus eight months i am open-minded to other proposals, but i think we'd be well served from a risk management point of view to start soon, but to do it gradually. >> robert, what do you say to americans, you know, who are experiencing these high inflation rates right now? you meet them on the street and they say, president kaplan, i have got prices going up at 5% a

year what are you guys doing at the fed? how do you respond to average americans on that score about the outlook for inflation, what you are going to do about it >> i am having a number of those conversations and it reminds me, and you heard me say this, we have a dual mandate. full employment and price stability, and even with our new framework where we're letting inflation run moderately above 2%, we have got a commitment in that framework to anchor inflation at 2%. and what i'm seeing is low/moderate income communities are expressing to me inclusive prosperity, inclusive growth is jobs and price stability, and what we're seeing in these communities is inflation affects them disproportionately. gasoline, used cars, potentially higher rents, take a greater share of their wallet. so i think at the fed we have got to take that very seriously.

>> robert kaplan of the dallas fed, thanks for joining us i am sorry we don't have mountains in the background. i guess this will have to do like everything else the past 14 months or so. >> thanks, steve see you soon. >> okay. carl, back to you. and a good reminder there that the cpi is an average basket, right? and it doesn't mean that it affects different people differently. low moderate income people are going to be experiencing price hikes much more acutely than middle income and upper income people. >> absolutely, steve lighting up the wires today. steve liesman with kaplan there, thank you. take a look at the top gainers on the s&p for the week on that theme of the american consumer and companies trying to navigate through the delta variant. top gainers include a lot of gaming names, caesars, wynn and devon. we have taken a leg lower, dow's down 88. vix above 19

all the things, all around you... where you learn, work, and fly... we help make them healthier. we are the people of abm. for more than 100 years, we've been a leader in making spaces cleaner, from the things you touch to the air you breathe. today, more than 100,000 of us are innovating to ensure spaces are more efficient, healthier and safer. abm. making spaces healthier for you.

. with the s&p 500 on track for the longest monthly winning streak since 2018, is it time to add a little downside protection our traders share their top adgniocn.c trinatn.bcom more "squawk on the street" coming up. ved it. that's great, carl. but we need something better. that's easily adjustable has no penalties or advisory fee. and we can monitor to see that we're on track. like schwab intelligent income. schwab! introducing schwab intelligent income. a simple, modern way to pay yourself from your portfolio. oh, that's cool... i mean, we don't have that. schwab. a modern approach to wealth management. sofi is a one-stop shop for your finances designed to work better together. save, spend, borrow, invest, and earn cash back rewards, all in one app.

that's how you get your money right with sofi. i'm evie's best camper badge. but even i'm not as memorable as eating turkey hill chocolate chip cookie dough creamy premium ice cream and chasing fireflies. don't worry about me. i'm fine. you can't beat turkey hill memories. we continue to monitor developments at the kabul airport this morning as the pentagon spokesman john kirby is now confirmed the explosion, obviously, and added that it has resulted in an unknown number of casualties meantime, a u.s. official tells reuters that the casualty numbers the u.s. casualty numbers are expected to increase according to initial information. we know the president's been briefed. eamon, hopefully, can tell us more about what we're learning good morning >> good morning to you, carl we are seeing a number of different reports on casualty

figures. we will have to wait for that to sort through until we get an official count here of what has happened and the damage in kabul, afghanistan but nbc news's andrea mitchell is reporting right now that two u.s. intelligence officials say that they don't have an attribution for this suspected i.e.d. attack outside the airport. their assumption is, as of right now, that this was caused by isis k now, the isis k is a splinter group of isis that is also considered an adversary of the taliban. you have the taliban taking control. city you have isis k elements operating inside the city as well you have u.s. marines securing the airfield and you have got the remnants of the ana, afghanistan national army, also at the airport so you have got sort of what amounts to potentially a four-sided conflict happening within a few kilometers. all those different entities are operating on top of that, you have thousands of civilians and unknown number of americans who are still trying to evacuate the

country. what andrea mitchell is reporting is this threat from i.c.e. kis the same threat officials have been warning about since saturday they stepped up an alert last night, telling americans to leave the airport perimeter. officials have been saying for a while this is a dicey and risky situation in kabul you imagine the tactical challenge here, carl, for the u.s. marines who are involved in securing the perimeter of that airport, dealing with the civilians and the humanitarian disaster that's unfolding there. you have seen the marines, the photos of them reaching over the wall to pull up injured children and infants even as they're dealing with that. they are also on the lookout for i.e.d. and potential suicide attackers. also figuring out who may be isis k, who is taliban, who is an american citizen, who is an afghanistan trying to he is same all of that extraordinarily complex on the tactical little on the strategic and political levels for the biden

administration a difficult problem indeed, carl >> leaders from around the world are responding this morning. macron in france says the situation has profoundly deteriorated in afghanistan. calls the situation extremely tense and calls for caution in a context. he says we can't control as you out, the congested nature of the airport right now, i guess, arguably severely limits what would be a classic tactical response. >> sure. and, you know, you don't want a tactical response here necessarily if you're trying to evacuate the country what you want is a strategic retreat. that's what the biden administration has been trying to execute here. and that can be extraordinarily difficult. military history is full of examples of strategic retreats that have gone badly when they're done under fire. this one had been not under fire and officials had clearly been anxious to have a deal with the taliban hold, the taliban would not attack the airport

that had been the case now for several days as this evacuation was under way. and thousands of people had been able to leave that airport now, though, with this explosion, this becomes a strategic retreat under fire, potentially. and that's a much more difficult and tricky situation and you can imagine the stress and fear, frankly, on the part of the commanders and the u.s. marines who are dealing with it right now. but the situation seems to be under control for now. the question is how much additional threat is there is this a one and done attack by somebody looking to make a point, or is this the beginning of a campaign of harassment and violence as the united states -- the remnants of the u.s. forces leave afghanistan today, carl? >> thank you for that. great context, situation that we're quickly trying to understand that initial report of the explosion happened just within the past hour. and has taken some wind out of the markets, session low now

down 120 thanks all three major indexes now firmly in the red as you can see there. the s&p down by .5%. same with the nasdaq s&p's biggest laggards today are some of the lower priced retailers led by dollar tree, seeing declines of more than 11% today. we'll be right back. stay with us staying up half the night searching for savings on your prescriptions? just ask your cvs pharmacist. we search for savings for you, from coupons to lower cost options. plus earn up to $50 extrabucks rewards each year just for filling, at cvs pharmacy.

(upbeat music) - [announcer] introducing the grubhub guarantee, our promise to deliver your order on time within the delivery window and for the lowest price compared to other apps, or you'll get back at least $5 in perks.

and there you have it- woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet, i get that too and mine has 5g included. that's cool, but ours save us serious clam-aroonies. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself.

as children start heading back to school, public health experts are stressing that routine testing for covid is a key layer for increasing safety. meg tirrell has the story for us meg? >> hi, david the white house thinks this is such an important part of keeping kids safe as they go back to school that they allocated $10 billion for screening testing in schools as part of the american rescue plan that would go to states and then states make the decision about how to use this. we talked with the white house covid testing coordinator carol johnson about what she is seeing in terms of how these different programs are being put into place. >> it looks different in different places, right? some school districts are doing

rapid tests, some school districts are doing pool tests, some are doing a lab partnership or saliva test with a local academic medical center. it looks different in different places but, you know, in areas of high transmission, kids and teachers who are unvaccinated being tested once a week is cdc's recommendation >> what we're finding, guys, if you look across the united states, different cities are doing this in really different ways you have los angeles unified school district, which is testing everybody. weekly, regardless of their vaccination status but then you have other cities that are weekly testing for staff, like detroit, philadelphia, and oakland. just unvaccinated staff, santa barbara, long beach, kansas city, washington, d.c. and then every two weeks for san jose county and san jose, california, and clark county, nevada some places are not doing any testing at all, like iowa. they declined to do -- to take the funding from the american

rescue plan. now, schools are doing testing for diagnostics in terms of if kids have symptoms, and things like that. and this has been an area that a lot of companies have started to get involved with. specifically ginkgo bioworks, we hear about them in terms of working with states to provide testing for schools. so a lot of companies here stepping up to try to make this possible guys >> meg, thank you. just one more thing, the educators of america have to do to make sure that the students are safe we appreciate you bringing us that story as more american businesses demand proof of vaccination, more chinese counterfeiters are making bogus vaccination cards eunice yoon has the latest >> reporter: covid vaccination cards are in sale in china online, marketed with plastic sleeves or holders, custom made for the cards. one vendor tells us their certificates will be shipped from a major business area or

from a warehouse in the industrial town of shenzhen. this batch of 100 is from the manufacturing hub of ewu the forgeries are make to look as if they're issued by the department of health and human services and the cdc but typos in both english and spanish give the bogus version away even the word vaccine is misspelled the fake and its holder sold here for eight cents on the black market, cybersecurity firms found faux cards priced anywhere from several dollars to hundreds. this vendor says she shipped 10,000 to the u.s. this month alone. the vendor says that demand is picking up and that most of the cards are headed to the united states and to avoid detection at customs, they're recommending to their middle men to send the cards in small batches david? >> eunice, thank you eunice yoon. i can tell you they're also pretty good at fake i.d.s, i

know that -- >> for a fact? >> having a couple of teenagers, yeah, pretty good. >> that's where it comes from? >> yes, get online -- no, they're really good. the chinese. >> i just gave away my college -- my college strategy >> at re-creating various states yeah, your kids can drink. we have been watching the markets closely here and we did as carl mentioned tick lower during the last hour. so you can see down across the board, half a percent, let's call it, on the s&p and the nasdaq most sectors lower, although i did notice leslie something you and i both cover, somewhat closely. the banks showing significant signs of life. that retreatedas well. jpmorgan shares still up a little over half a percent right now along with bank of america in the green and goldman sachs but even there things have sort of moderated a bit as well as we look at the big banks. >> financials and gaming seem to be the key winners of the day so

far with some of the lower priced retailers having a bit more of a down day, consumer staples, weaker with food, consumer discretionary also a laggard today. >> all right, that's going to do it for us here on "squawk on the street." over to "techcheck" which starts now. good thursday morning. welcome to "techcheck. i'm carl quintanilla with jon fortt and deirdre bosa the nasdaq is coming off record highs. faang on a roll this week. can anything stop the tech rally? tom lee is going to weigh in today. we're going to talk cybercash as google and microsoft shell out billions after visiting the white house. and then later is joe rogan losing some influence thanks to spotify? a reporter behind that