to play this for the near term for some companies brendan, thanks for your time. brendan ahern is the cio of kraneshares. "power lunch" begins right now don't go anywhere. and welcome, everybody, to "power lunch." i'm tyler mathison we have a lot to get to including the big jackson hole meeting that's a virtual meeting, a conference of the fed governors and central bankers. but we want to begin with the latest breaking news out of afghanistan as a bombing, a fatal bombing, rocks the airport in kabul shep smith has the latest developments for us. hi, shep >> hi, tyler two bombings happened around 9:45 a.m. eastern time in kabul, one at a gate that leads to the airport and another at a nearby hotel about 1,000 meters apart there are a number of dead in the nearby drainage ditch and the pentagon confirms a number of united states troops were killed we have a statement that's come

in from the pentagon from john kirby, the spokesperson there. they've still not held a news briefing yet i want to show you the statement. we can confirm that a number of u.s. service members were killed in today's complex attack at the kabul airport. a number of others are being treated for wounds we know that a number of afghans fell victim to this heinous attack he goes on, our thoughts and prayers go out to the loved ones and teammates of all of those killed and injured we have new reporting in from "the wall street journal." nbc news cannot confirm this but "the wall street journal" is reporting that while no group has claimed responsibility western governments did earlier this week warn of islamic states regional affiliate isis-k. the u.s. envoy in kabul, again from "the wall street journal," told staff that four marines why killed and three of the injured in an attack, an american official familiar with this briefing a senior afghan help official tells "the wall street journal"

the death toll of afghan civilians is 60 with more, quote, fighting for their lives. the united states now relies on the taliban for security the president had promised in a statement back on friday of last week that if any of our operations were disrupted or any of our troops were harmed, there would be swift and forceful response the president spent much of the morning, we're told, in the situation room with advisers and others, assessing the situation and getting reports. he's now in the oval office, we're told, taking briefings from his defense department and others we're led to believe we will have some sort of statement at some point from the president given the gravity of the situation. you would expect as much the question now is how does this move forward? there are questions about whether the evacuation can continue under the current security situation the united states relying on what amounts to a terrorist organization for security and now it appears at least, though it hasn't been confirmed,

isis-k, its sworn enemy, has come in and disrupted the entire affair by killing u.s. citizens and u.s. troops and others the question now is how can the evacuation continue? the security situation has devolved to nothing at this point. we have no indication that people are now going in and out of that airport. we don't know whether flight operations can continue and on what level those operations are operating -- are going forward at this moment so when we get news from the pentagon or the white house, we'll bring you that for now, though, the latest from the pentagon, a number of united states troops have been killed, an active situation in kabul this evening tyler? >> thank you very much, shep smith. and shep will be following the story for us for the rest of the afternoon. kelly? so what can we expect to hear from the white house, as shep just mentioned? to eamon javers who is in washington with more eamon? >> reporter: kelly, there will be mounting pressure on the biden administration to respond to this attack now that we have confirmation of u.s. military deaths in afghanistan.

the question is what is the biden administration going to do here there's very limited options i've been emailing back and forth with a former high-ranking u.s. military official who served in afghanistan and is an expert in that region. this official telling me that really the biden administration's response is going to be constrained by the military realities on the ground he says any response now will be vastly more difficult without any base in central or south az why, so drones trying to locate isis-k headquarters would use 60% of their flight time going to and from afghanistan as they'll be operating from bases in the gulf states the official telling me this makes the task much more challenging and much more costly so even if they have good intelligence on who exactly they would want to strike against given that isis-k is a shadowy terrorist organization just getting the drones in and out from the gulf states now will use up about 60% of their in-flight time going forward and

backward to afghanistan. that's the military reality on the ground another former u.s. intelligence official emailing me just a short time ago to say one of the concerns here will be overwatch over the airport -- helicopters, drones, fighter jets, protecting the civilian and military aircraft on the ground, on the airport complex itself this former u.s. intelligence official telling me that in his view just one man's opinion here, but somebody who is familiar with u.s. intelligence operations, in his view they shouldn't keep those aircraft on the ground at kabul airport for very much longer, kelly. back over to you >> thank you very much, eamon javers eamon will also be following this story for us throughout the afternoon. as we consider what the u.s. might be able to do, let's bring in a person who is an expert in this, retired army colonel jack jacobs is with us, also an nbc news military analyst joining us by the phone colonel jacobs, wonderful to have you with us what are our response options as you see them

>> there are few to none you have to have a target, and there is no target if this is, in fact, isis-k and there are suicide bombers, you're not going to be able to respond in any way it's extremely difficult for the administration now and military planners have no options whatsoever the only thing they can suggest is to get americans out as quickly as they can. i've been told by someone on the ground only u.s. citizens now are permitted to come on to the airport which means that bus loads and long columns of afghans who have helped us out now are not going to be able to get in until they sort out the security situation and as was mentioned earlier, we're now in the unenviable position of relying on the taliban to protect american forces against isis or any other

terrorists who care to attack us there has always been an insufficient force, an insufficient preparation around the airfield in particular, for this operation despite the fact that three presidentness a row have said that we're leaving we started withdrawing troops a decade ago and then, only recently, stood up an effort to evacuate americans and afghans who have helped us so to get back to the original question, there are no options that are any good. and if anything, this is going to slow down the evacuation and make it extremely difficult if not impossible be to hit the 31 october deadline >> that was going to be my next question does this put the evacuation on pause for the time being and thereby extend the amount of time or the deadline for withdrawing american forces and american nationals

>> well, it's an interesting question even if we evacuate only americans, i don't think we have the capability of meeting that deadline in the first place. who set the deadline well, the administration did and the previous administration did. there's plenty of evidence to indicate the 31 august deadline was the result of a deal between the american administrations and the taliban. and in order to get the taliban's concurrence that they would protect americans and american interests as we were leaving, they settled on the 31 august deadline. but that was never achievable given the fact that we hadn't had too much of an idea how many people we had to evacuate, where they were, or how many assets we needed to do it. some weeks ago jerry reid, who is the department of defense

point person to engineer the visas and a presser and in response to a question that said when did you stand up -- when did you put together your task force? and his answer was july. only weeks before we were going to execute this very complicated -- required lots more forces than this. this is not going to -- it was never going to end except messily, but now it's going to end tragically by the way, i don't think that we've seen the last of isis-k attacking americans and after ga afghans. >> as we watch them battle it out for supremacy, what does that mean for the u.s., for europe, for other countries? are they going to be so consumed fighting each other that they'll

be distracted from launching international attacks, or is the opposite true? >> no, i think the opposite is true when you have a fragmented enemy, different factions with different objectives and all with the kind of capability we saw today, and a taliban which has not yet consolidated its control of the country, i think that's dark energy it's going to give isis-k, al qaeda, plenty of opportunity to attack american and allied interests. it's likely wehaven't seen the last of these guys either in afghanistan or elsewhere >> final quick question, colonel, if i might. i'm not exactly certain where this attack took place -- i know where it is, inside the u.s. security perimeter, but clearly these individuals had to pass through some sort of taliban checkpoint do the taliban own this?

>> well, they do and they would prefer if it hadn't happened, but don't forget you have an undisciplined force with a chain of command fraught with internal rivalry trying to control from a high level auld way down to the lowest possible point in the food chain in the taliban. you're going to have undisciplined people doing things they're not supposed to do indeed, it's known that isis-k has recruited a fairly substantial percentage of its fighters from the taliban over the last couple of months. they can't consolidate on their objective of controlling the country. they obviously cannot and can't control people at some distance from the headquarters. it's entirely possible these bombers were just let in

>> it is a mess inside of a mess thank you very much. we appreciate your time. and coming up, we will track the developments out of afghanistan and any impact on the market also taking a close look at the fed and what policymakers are saying about the timing of the taper, meaning the purchase of securities we'll take a look at the market, the dow and s&p at session lows. the industrials off a little more than a third of a percent "power lunch" will be right back

hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee... yeah i should've just led with that... with at&t business... you can pick the best plan for each employee and only pay for the features they need. baaam. internet that doesn't miss a beat. that's cute, but my internet streams to my ride. adorable, but does yours block malware? nope. -it crushes it. pshh, mine's so fast, no one can catch me. big whoop! mine gives me a 4k streaming box. -for free! that's because you all have the same internet.

xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that?

welcome back, everybody. we turn our attention to the markets, which are nearing session lows, with the economy and the jackson hole conference about to get under way, major policy announcements or at least hint of some the most powerful central bankers are speaking out. steve liesman is here with what they've been saying and what more we can expect, steve. >> reporter: fed chair jay powell set to kick off the conference tomorrow but three cnbc interviews today find all three backing a more aggressive taper despite the delta variant outbreak there is growing concern about the impacts of inflation on lower income americans >> we've really got this booming economy that probably doesn't need more stimulus at this

point. you want to let this play out and make sure that we don't get to much inflation. this is going to be a problem for everyone, i would say, and especially at the low end of the income distribution if we get too much inflation that doesn't moderate in 2022 >> reporter: the board wants to get the taper done by the first quarter of 2022. that's a pretty aggressive timetable that will allow the fed to raise rates sooner if inflation isn't brought under control. dallas fed president kaplan said the fed should get on with asset purchases despite the surge in covid cases. >> with this resurgence we've spent the last week, ten days, really redoubling our efforts to talk to contacts, do real-time surveys, looking at high-frequency data on mobility and engagement and based on everything i've seen i don't see anything at this point that with cause me to materially change my outlook.

>> reporter: kaplan wants to announce a taper, a time line george appeared to support, the most important speech that comes tomorrow 10:00 a.m. for fed chair jay powell we'll hear from several other fed officials here on cnbc we have bostic coming up, pat harper, loretta mester and richard clarida on this show tomorrow you're going to want to tune in, tyler. >> a lot of fed speak tomorrow steve, give us a sense of -- i mean, everybody knows a taper is coming, it would seem. how important is the timing of the announcement or the hinting or the winking to the markets, or is it already all in there? >> reporter: i mean, it's a good question we can't survey everybody in the market, tyler, but if you don't know that a taper is being discussed, it could well happen

october, november or december. i'm afraid you probably should give in your license for holding any stocks at all. >> thank you >> reporter: you should be banned from providing any investment advice or even actually holding any assets sort of thing >> steve, thank you very much. well put treasury yields on the move ahead of the annual summit rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. >> reporter: intraday right around 1:00 eastern rates dropped a bit. that's when we completed the note option, $183 billion in coupon supply. very normal. earlier in the day we saw near four decade highs on the pricing indices in second quarter gdp. if you look at one week of 10s, rates have been steadily rising into jackson hole and exactly how it turns out, i can't tell you. what i can tell you we have snugged up to the best

resistance the yield high at 1.37%. it fell back down and basically resting on the 50-day moving average. if you look at a mid-july chart for tens you can see we're in the same zip code as two-week highs. if you look overseas bund yields are actually closing at five-week highs because the correlation between all sovereigns as the fed decides what it wants to do with the stimulus policy will affect all. >> thank you, rick santelli. as the summit kicks off tomorrow, the optics of an early fed taper are potentially toxic. a former fed and imf economist toxic, tell me about that. why? >> there's a lot of political pressure for president biden to get rid of jay powell and to put someone more aggressive against the banks and perhaps a little bit more lenient in terms of th early tapering discussion.

i think one of the things we should be very aware of is so far we've only heard from the more hawkish members and i can guarantee you at the next meeting neither bullard, george, nor kaplan will be dissenting votes. why? they're not voters and so one of the traditions is you get the people who are not voters to take the more extreme positions. i would like to hear from mary daley, charlie evans, who will be voters for the rest of the year and setting the timing of the tapering discussion. and kaplan won't be a voter until 2023 so these are things i think the market is well aware of which is why the reaction today in the marketplace isn't so extreme to this kind of early tapering discussion >> so is it in the category of idle talk, then, or are these folks just not even heard?

>> the tradition where you want to announce policy changes is to get the early extremes out in the open and have that discussion so that the markets are ready and i think the lesson learned from chair bernanke is don't ever say anything that says autopilot, don't say anything about models. chair powell, when he came into office said we make decisions. human beings make decisions and we're not driven by models and the discussion is showing the extremes within the committee and chair powell will do the wise, sagely thing pulling together as consensus saying we will have a moderated pace of tapering and it will depend on the data it will surely stay away from any sense of automatic or model driven >> they will not have the jobs report until after jackson hole. i'm glad you brought up the autopilot. people forgot about 2018 if you say when did the fed start cutting rates most would

say 2020 after the pandemic but, no, they started in 2019 when the economy was in the very late stages of an expansion, when unemployment was dropping in a good way for a lot of the groups that had been stuck at a high level since the financial crisis why were we cutting rates in 2019, and what does that tell us about the likely moves into next year >> one of the things we have to keep in mind the situational -- the data and the situation of the economy is highly very important and the fed is highly dependent upon knowing what the economy is doing they're not going to be forecasting what it's doing. they're going to say what is the economy doing? one of the things we'll have to watch out for would be tail risk, the things that would influence the data coming out from left field. one of the things that's not talked about well enough, i think, the amount of fiscal expansion we're having and also the extent to which covid is not only affecting supply chains here in the u.s. but abroad. and that will prolong the duration of the high inflation we have now because so many of the bottlenecks will not be

alleviated if covid takes off in our asian supply chains and in the european supply chains these are those that i would worry about and would encourage our sponsors at milken to worry about. look at what will influence the data to be reported the next several months and there i think the tail risks coming into play. >> do you think the fed will put off the taper as it fends off sort of the left when it comes to reappointing powell but that potentially that puts them behind the curve >> that's the great danger that all economists are saying. the big policy mistake is we will keep the easing too long, and i think chair powell will have to thread that needle and say we are very well aware of the situation, and we will guarantee you if we are going to keep the pressure and the easing out there. it won't be too long and we will react immediately as the data changes. we're not delaying the tapering as such but rather make it very

dependent upon the situation as it evolves >> and, i guess, the biggest concern from those who feel differently, bill, and we talked last hour, thefed will actually -- the biggest risk is they will repeat the mistakes of the last decade, every time they've tightened they've had to reverse course >> every economist always points to the big policy errors of the '70s and early '80s where the fed reacts too late and reacts too much and i think this time the fed has changed framework and procedures to the point it's not dependent upon economist forecast and models the i hate to say this but it shows the failure of the profession to forecast accurately. we're well aware there's a lag in our policy and we'll take that into account, but we're not going to be suckered by forecasts. >> the people win over the model. >> man versus machine. >> for all the ai and all that we talk about, bill, we appreciate your perspective

today, bill lee. we appreciate it coming up, the bell tolls for timber the ceo of toll brothers says the drop in crazy high lumber prices will save $40,000 per home built we'll discuss that and more when "power lunch" returns. 're trying to buy, - you should ten-x it. - ten-x it? ten-x is the world's largest online commercial real estate exchange. you see it. you want it. you ten-x it. it's that fast. if i could, i'd ten-x everything. like... uh... these salads. or these sandwiches... ten-x does the same thing, but with buildings. sweet. oh no, he wasn't... oh, actually... that looks pretty good. see it. want it. ten-x it. yum!

you have the best pizza in town and the worst wait times. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description.

visit indeed.com/hire when traders tell us how to make thinkorswim even better, matching your job description. we listen. like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim web. because platforms this innovative, aren't just made for traders - they're made by them. thinkorswim trading. from td ameritrade.

welcome back i'm rahel solomon and here is your cnbc update on afghanistan. the pentagon spokesman says a number of u.s. marines why killed in the bomb attacks outside the kabul airport. the pentagon did not mention an exact number of casualties, but the wall street journal is reporting the number killed stands at four u.s. troops and 60 afghans the first american soldiers killed in afghanistan in a year and a half we are expecting more details from a pentagon news conference that was just scheduled for 3:00 p.m. eastern boris johnson says the attacks will not interrupt evacuation efforts and paid respects for the victims. >> members of the u.s. military sadly lost their lives and many afghan casualties as well. we extend our condolences both to the united states of america and to the people of

afghanistan. >> and the taliban is condemning the attacks saying it happened in an area controlled by u.s. forces the taliban says it is paying close attention to security but it is unclear if the taliban did anything to thwart the attacks tyler, back to you >> very, very interesting, rahel. thank you very much. let's get a check on the markets. little changed really on this turbulent day. as you see the dow industrials flirting with their lows of the day off about 134 points, a third or so of a percent sort of the same kind of de decline. let's take a look at west texas crude down 1.3% at 67.41 let's walk you through some power movers, share of the cosmetics maker coty up despite reporting a wider than expected eps loss sales numbers beat wall street forecast autodesk shares tumbling

revenue met estimates and the company did beat eps guidance disappointed investors. we can't have that finally morgan stanley reiterating caeser's with an overweight rating saying recent weakness could give investors the chance to get in on the booming sports betting industry. for more on this call go to cnbc.com/pro all right. and coming up, cyber fraud is at an all-time high could the block chain be used to block some of the crooks

welcome back, everyone ahead of all of the fed speak tomorrow, how does all of this taper talk affect your portfolio? our next guest doesn't think a taper proof stock exists so investors should look beyond the current headlines. she has names to buy that will benefit investors the next three to five years. let's bring in kim forest, founder and chief investment officer. pronounce it for me, kim >> bokeh >> like boca raton >> kind of it is a photography term and that's why i chose it. i'm an amateur photographer. nobody paid me, so i'm clearly amateur.

>> now we know but you're a pro at the markets and we're going to tap into that right now. >> great >> there's no such thing asa taper proof stock, what do you mean >> it doesn't seem so. the last time that they tapered suddenly the whole market went down, and i believe that was 2013 and i don't think taking away the punch bowl is something any stock is going to benefit from so many of them are getting boosted by low interest rates, right? you have to pay a higher multiple when we're in a low interest rate environment, and when that ends, so does that multiple so you have to look further out than just the taper. >> give me some nice names that you think can progress from here >> sure. well, i really love technology, and it's not because i was a software engineer and i understand it, but i see the

runway and everything says we're going to be more digitized and not less and semiconductors in particular are in demand and i understand that there's supply chain issues but i think the sheer number of semiconductors that we're going to need in the future drives our love of that as an area to invest in. we like xilinx and micron. >> the company that makes the chips, right >> exactly in particular xilinx will benefit from 5g. we'll keep amd when that transaction happens because we just think computing is not a fad and companies get productivity from it people get entertainment from it and we'll have more chips this year than we did last year >> so, kim, also as we talk about the lasting changes from the pandemic people are saying

cloud -- the acceleration of that adoption is bringing forward three to five years of change especially for areas like state and local government who could benefit from this? >> well, i think a lot of the cloud providers are richly valued at this point we saw crm have a lights out quarter, right i don't necessarily think we need to invest in that the reason we like micron they make devices that you store data on and that is fundamentally what you are doing when you are moving to the cloud. >> kim, thank you so much. we're following breaking news, as you understand, in afghanistan. let's go right now to shepard smith. >> reporter: tyler, devastating news coming to us out of kabul the associated press has confirmed 11 u.s. marines along with a navy medic in the coordinated attacks outside the airport. it was two attacks, one at a

gate that leads into the airport complex and another at a nearby hotel about 1,000 meters apart the immediate security breakdown, the taliban have condemned the event and say the united states was responsible for security in that area. nothing could be further from the truth. it was the taliban who guaranteed the united states security and safe passage for evacuations from afghanistan, which are scheduled to end on august the 31st. that's just next week, five days away this has thrown all of the plans into great question. the president spent the morning in the situation room with his closest advisers, we're told, and has been getting briefings from the defense department and others throughout the day. there will be a pentagon briefing at the top of the hour, 23 minutes from now. cnbc will have live coverage from the pentagon. the first notice of this went out at 9:44 a.m. eastern time. almost five hours ago now, and no word from the white house of any kind and no on-camera

statements from the pentagon of any kind the news of these deaths has trickled in, and we're expected to get further confirmation from the pentagon at the top of the hour but, again, the headline from the associated press 11 u.s. marines killed. this is the first time u.s. service personnel have been killed in afghanistan since february the 8th of 2020 updates as they come in from the newsroom, i'm shepard smith. >> shep, thank you very much as you say just devastating news we'll bk tethbeacafr is

do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy, even a term policy, for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized that we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have one hundred thousand dollars or more of life insurance you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit conventrydirect.com to find out if you policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance.

welcome back to "power lunch. i'm seema mody peloton is out with earnings after the bell the company resuming sales of lower cost redesigned treadmill after a safety recall in may the stock is falling out of favor with reopening trades taking leadership over the stay at home plays. let's discuss with the trading nation team, tom gordon and gina sanchez. and when you look on wall street there are 22 buys and two sells that would tell you wall street is rather optimistic about peloton's growth story what do you think? >> yeah, how can you not be?

people are trying to call the end of the pandemic and the reality is we're going to have to live with this for a while and it will push out the return of the office. you and i spoke about planet fitness and made the point it' not an either/or decision, they both can co-exist. if you look at the chart heading the earnings, we have an inverse head and shoulders which is a trend continuation pattern we get up to 127, i don't see any reason we can't go back to highs. i own the stock, i own a bike and the peloton facebook group, they're selling for $1,800, the cost of the new basic model. the key figure is the subscription retention model which is the lowest turn at 3% they also have a deal with medi health care to give 4 million eligible members access to a year of their subscription peloton is 3 million members a big opportunity to boost their base there

i'm continuing to be bullish >> gina, i believe you are an owner of the bike but would not be an owner of the stock why? >> the challenge is valuation. right now this stock is priced for huge growth but more of a software subscription type valuation rather than the kind that occurs more in the gym industry and i am concerned where it settles is going to be lower than expectations because the software subscription means you actually have to get on the bike and do it, and people have competing and conflicting priorities inevitably that's what happens in the gym industry. >> gina, is there something they could say on the earnings call that would make you compelled to be a buyer of the stock which is already down 23% this year >> i think the ceo has to play the growth story because that's

the way the stock is priced. as long as they hit their numbers for subscription and keep the churn numbers low, as they're growing you could justify this valuation i think in the long term you have to think about what that long-term valuation will be. >> watching this stock very closely going into the close gina and todd, thank you for more "trading nation" head to our website you can follow us on twitter back to you. >> seema, thanks up next lumber prices cooling down dramatically after months of running hot, and it could be a huge salvo for the home building stock. i will ask a top analyst which could benefit the most after this and now the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. when it comes to investing, there are generally two popular methodologies. fundamental analysis, which focuses on things like revenues, earnings and cash flows and technical analysis which focuses on chart patterns, price movement and momentum.

for skin that never holds you back don't settle for silver #1 for diabetic dry skin* #1 for psoriasis symptom relief* and #1 for eczema symptom relief* gold bond champion your skin

welcome back to "power lunch. we've seen the price of lumber drop dramatically down 50% in the past six months.

it's still under 500 today the ceo of toll builder, this will be good for builders taking the price of the house here is what he told jim cramer last night >> so lumber is down $40,000 a home we'll see the benefit of that in the second hatclf of '22. i think it's going to stay down. but there's other cost pressures that we're feeling so that the tail wind of lumber coming down is very comforting >> and think about what this means for toll brothers. so their costs go down by $40,000. their average home selling price is $860,000. the stock is up 43% this year. let's bring in the head of evercorp housing research team that has to spell a decent gross profit margins >> for toll brothers for sure. >> yes, go ahead.

>> and the rest of the home builders because they all build their homes out of the same stuff. this is one of the reasons why i have been so surprised that most of my competitors seem to be modeling margins for next year to be flat to down we, in my conversationswith investors, i very frequently get asked about whether or not we're looking at peak margins right now. and i would say it's not peak margins you should be thinking you should be thinking peak lumber run running the pnl because they go through on a lag they use the wood in the early stages of building the house but don't close the house, finish the house and turn the keys over to the homeowner until, in many cases, two quarters later. really the back half of this year, be kind of what we're looking at right now, is incorporating peak lumber costs, the benefit that doug was talking about will benefit the

builders next years. that's one of the reasons i'm confident margins will rise next year instead of declining or being flat >> so that obviously makes sense. my question would be to go back to the average home price sales figure $860,000 granted toll is pretty much is e highest of the high here, but i think the main question people haves have, is can they sustained of prices? if they can't, isn't that where the proficient comes from? >> yes, lumbers gives them wiggle room, but are we not going to see prices drop in the next year or two >> that's something that's underlying people's cautiousness a and they say isn't it the case that builders raised prizes too much, so therefore next year they'd have to bring prices down really, what you have seen with

the home prices is largely a function of the fact that supply in the industry has been too low and, as a result, the move that you have seen in home prices, you should look at that as an upward correction, not some sort of overshoot the idea that home prices have risen too much, and so nobody can afford a home anymore sound like what yogi berra says, nobody goes to a restaurant anymore, because it's too crowded. you talk to anybody trying to buy a house right now, they're definitely having to outbid other people when you have that, guess what home prices go up. >> explaining to me what you think is going to happen here. obviously the builders passed along some, if not all, the higher price of lumber, but it's also demand, it's the buyer who

sets the price really, right in the last analysis, and now that lumber has come back down to where it is today, do you expect that the increment to price that was passed along is going to be taken back out of the equation by the builders >> i'm glad you asked that, tyler, because i really do not i think there's a business of a misunderstanding, or at least a difference of opinion here i do not believe the builders set prices primarily based on lumber. >> right. >> you should think about it existing home outnumber new home transactions by 5 to 1 in any given year the existing home market resales sets where home prices are that's where you see the most information about what the home should be priced at. when you are selling your home, or when you are buys a home in the existing home market, you

are not looking at what lumber costs have been doing, right so basically lumber is all about what the margin for the builder is going to be it's not going to drive the price of the builders' homes the pricer the builders' homes is being driven by what's going on in the resale market. >> very going. steve, how much higher do you think home prices are likely to go? >> it's interesting. my estimates, on average are about 25% higher than the street consensus for next year, and they have been that way for some time, but i don't model in a significant increase of home prices from here i'm modeling low sigle signature to mid single digit from here. frankly i think it could be a bit better than that >> steven, always appreciate talking to you thank you, sir steven kim. >> up next battling the bitcoin

bonnie and clydes. we're back in two. (vo) this is more than just a building. it's an ai-powered investment firm with billion-dollar views. a cutting-edge data-security enterprise. yes, with a slide. a perfect location for the world's first one-hour delivery. an inspiration for the next workout cult. and enough space for a pecan-based nutrition bar empire. it could happen. because there's space for any dream on loopnet.

the most popular place to find a space.

do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy, even a term policy, for an immediate cash payment. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized that we needed a way to supplement our income. if you have one hundred thousand dollars or more of life insurance you may qualify to sell your policy. don't cancel or let your policy lapse without finding out what it's worth. visit conventrydirect.com to find out if you policy qualifies. or call the number on your screen. coventry direct, redefining insurance. welcome back cryptofraud is on the rise, in part because of its secrecy. eamon javers is here with a look at whether the block change can actually block the bad guys. >> each as cryptocurrenciy has become the criminal's payment of

choice, the technology makes it a matter of public record. that provides a great starting point for investigators. >> one of the common misconceptions about cryptocurrencies is it's totally anoun muss and untraceable, the fact is just the opposite. >> it's for transferring value on a network of computers. each transaction is recorded on the chain and replicated across the entire network in most cases all participants here have action to the same information, because of that law enforcement knows where the money is the challenge is figuring out who controls that crypto-wallet. investigators are looking for mistakes a criminal may have made, digital evidence or real-world interactions they may have taken they can send subpoena to say crypto-exchanges at the same time, the criminals s are racing

to spend it so they can use the ill-gotten gains they try to find blackmarket buyers who will pay real cash, or work with countries' lax regulation it it can't get them all the way to solving the crime back over to you >> where you have, at least a public blockchain that others can perform those analytics on, verse things that are truly anonymous. >> i'm sorry, kelly, i can't hear you, a bit of a problem with technology. that's okay.

it's been a long day i think that will be one place to watch. >> you know thoo they are going to be those. let's jump in on where the markets stand, relatively modest losts, though they same to be expanding just a bit now about 0.5%, and for the nasdaq composite, as we got news reported earlier this hour by shepard smith that the death toll among american service people a now about a dozen individuals in that bombing outside the kabul airport. >> we have seen the ten-year treasury yield, as you see a bit of flight to safety. it did rise this morning, almost to 1.4% on the hawkish comments from some of the fed members we are talking about ahead of the summit it's come back down 1.34%, watching the dallas as well for some of the this behavior, so,

like tay already said we're sinking toward session lows. so many questions remain. >> so we'll keep following, obviously the developments at the airport in kabul and the market, as the final hour of trading takes off in just a few seconds from now meantime, thank for you watching "closing bell" does start now. thank you, tyler, kelly, welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen, we are expecting a briefing from the pentagon on the deadly attacks at any moment we'll take you there live is not it begins. >> i'm david faber in for wilfred frost. energy and stock caps. let's get to the pentagon for a briefing on what is happening. >> can you hear me okay? >> john, i can see you and hear you fine. >> the general will have some brief opening remarks, will address the events today, an