virtual meeting. so the stakes are high when everybody has to work remote -- >> does this necessarily imply older workers or can any of us be tech illiterate >> it doesn't imply anything doesn't go back granular into the age of what's going on what i do know is that things have gotten more complicated in work from home >> an employee terminated over messing up on a platform dom, thank you and thank you, everyone. "closing bell" starts right now. see you tomorrow thank you, kelly and tyler i'm sara eisen the nasdaq picking up where it left off last month, this first day of september and mike, hitting a record high. >> i'm mike santoli in for wilfred frost. let's look at what's driving the action the nasdaq is on top, among big cap indexes led by a pop in chinese internet names apple is higher as well. that stock hitting a new

all-time high. the latest adp report keeping sentiment in check ahead of friday's jobs number payrolls rising by 374s ,000 in august and energy is the weakest sector today. devin energy, marathon and diamondback among today's decliners. 59 minutes left to go. s&p up 0.7%. >> coming up -- online pet retailer chewy is gearing up to report results after the bell. it is up 20% just in the past month. lagging on the year. we'll break down the quarter and latest pet trends with sumit singh. first up, straight to the market mike tracking all the action at the telestrator. and joining us with his outlook is mark mobia. mike, set us up what you are watching in the market kind of a split day. >> yes, definitely split small caps ut o performing started out to be driven by large cap growth

still outperforming but the s&p 500 is more just steady as she goes we made about six all-time highs in the last eight trading sessions but we've only covered about 2% of up side in those six days it shows you it's beenslow, incremental. we've had intraday fades here and there. overall has stayed on course just to remind everybody, last year, a year tomorrow, actually, is when we hit that interim top. nasdaq 100, this is a two-year look it's straight linear it's basically more than doubled over two years and that includes the huge decline march 2020 what happened here, this was last august. this is sort of this really sharp peak market got overbought. all about the faangs real stampede to the upside in the large cap growth stocks in tesla and related stocks thin then we had the big correction you can't see it on the two-year chart.

we're in the nasdaq 100, again starting to get stretched to the upside in terms of the angle, pushing to the upper end of that trend channel we've been in for a little while something to keep in mind into september. and finally, the large cap growth has acted as something of a defensive or at least noncyclical place for the market somewhat high and insulated. but take a look at more traditional defensive areas. you see a real split staples and utilities have really not distinguished themselves at all this year. you've not seen the market migrating in that direction and saying they really see economic problems what we have seen is real estate huge outperformer. inflation and real aspect to those stocks but also cell towers, digital database companies. it's not just office buildings and apartments and health care which has a growthy aspect to it if you were worried about the macro outlook you probably look to see if staples and utilities for all their problems would

start to outperform. not yet happening. >> today is a good day to spot that kind of a defensive feel and big tech mike, thanks global markets seeing a nice rally offer the last year. india coming in as the biggest winner the bombay index higher. the country is a top pick for our next guest, mark mobius. always good to have you. emerging markets have really started to outperform here after, what, a decade of underperforming the developed world? so does this continue, and if so, why? >> that's right. it's been a long, long time. during that period there have been periods when emerging markets came up. but the big story is the climb in china and rise of india and if you compare india and china it's amazing one market going one direction the other going the other direction and india is outperforming not only china but

even the u.s so it's quite amazing. and i think you'll see more and more of that going forward and not only in india but countries like brazil and other emerging market countries coming back finally. and, of course, the interesting thing is that china being such a big part of the emerging markets index. the index looks terrible but if you look at the individual countries, they're beginning to look pretty good. >> are you staying away from china at this point what are yo doing with chinese exposure given the crackdown there? >> with this downturn in china, it provides an opportunity yes, we're overweight in india, but we're still in china because there's some great pickings. a lot of the companies have gone down too much in view of the scare about this crackdown by the government in fact, i believe that this so-called crackdown has been pretty good because it means the regulatory environment is going to be much healthier for the

whole country. and that's going to be pretty good particularly for the medium sized and smaller companies. >> a lot of folks who don't cover this space have been noticing the fact the index is breaking out it's been a big outperformer is it about where they are in terms of coming through covid or are there other factors driving things here? >> just look at the gdp numbers. looking at maybe 20% increase in one year of course, from a low bottom, but they're coming out of the covid situation. they handled covid pretty well, simply because it's a 1 billion people and they've been exposed to so many disease over the years. pretty resistant so it's a young, healthy population, generally speaking and i think as a result we'll see good things coming out of

india. >> the dollar has started to strengthen the fed is about to begin tapering or scaling back asset purchases. doesn't that present a threat to emerging markets when you have that liquidity reversing >> of course, if the money is going to be pulled out of markets generally, then that's a risk but from what i see is that the fed is very, very slowly that's one thing the other thing is it's no more about the fed. it's about money supply generally. and you look at the fact that money supply is up 30% only in the u.s. you realize that globally, we have a lot of money sloshing around and i think that money will continue going into the markets. and all of the cryptocurrency creating lots of liquid ity as well >> where does the outlook fit into your take on the emerging markets and how they might perform relative to everywhere else

beneficiaries in some degree or is it something of a squeeze for some of the economies? >> that's part of the story but we have to look at commodity prices commodity prices have already gone up by a lot so that danger is pretty much over for emerging markets that import these commodities but on the other hand, if you look at inflation moving up, of course, that's good for emerging markets and exporters. and, of course, with relatively weak currencies, not all currencies are weak, emerging markets, but many are weak against the u.s. dollar, they become very competitive. so a stronger u.s. dollar is very bullish for emerging markets generally. >> something of kind of self-correcting mechanism there in emerging markets. appreciate your time today thank you very much. mark mobius. up next -- real estate is the top performing sector today and for the year

we'll speak with the head of real estate investments about where she's looking for opportunities and why she says residential housing is not in a bubble you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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according to the case-shiller index. and 41% higher than at the peak back in 2006 joining us is carly tripp, nuveen real estate investment officer and head of investments. good to see you. >> likewise. thanks for having me >> so we kind of start off there talking about the super hot residential market, the single family home market nuveen, lots of different types of real estate how are you approaching residential right now as a category does it seem a little bit too frothy or are there opportunities there? >> i think first and foremost we're long-term investors. we're not looking to make a quick buck and if you look at the residential market, low inventories, low interest rates, high demand. delays in construction are really still supportive of continued price appreciation the supply side of the equation has not caught up and it will not catch up for some time

you know, likely indication that we saw leading up to the financial crisis was total mortgage debt as a percentage of gdp. today that stands just below 50%. in 2007 it was 70% so that still looks healthy. at the same time we have these long-term tailwinds, including age cohort that demographically is really, really important to supporting the housing market. and that's 30 to 39-year-olds. over the next decade that's expected to continue to grow we also have new entrants in the market, creating new pockets of demand single family rental, for instance, is a newly formed investment market that didn't exist. so still long term see a lot of tail wind supporting the sector overall. >> yeah, that institutional participation in single family homeownership and rental is definitely a new wrinkle inthi market have you participated in that, and is that doing something to

maybe make things less affordable, just in general out there for buyers >> yeah, i think that first of all, we do participate in it the affordability factor is multidimensional and i think, you know, one is if you look at new homes being built, affordable homes that fall below the $200,000 category are just underbuilt and underserved. and so i think it's lack of building new affordable that's really creating the issues i think new entrants into the market is an opportunity for americans who are homeowners to create additional wealth and what we're seeing now, again, is just massive amounts of demand coming from owner-occupied and single family rental buyers that is, you know, continuing to drive pricing. but in these -- in the markets across the sun belt where you're seeing heavy population migration, what's happening is there's just not existing stock to serve both the rental market

and the owner occupied market. so i think rather than looking at it as increased competition, it comes back to supply needing to catch up with demand. >> we've been showing some of thecharts of the public stocks in real estate and it's the hottest place to be in the market today and for the entire year. reits up 32% is there still opportunity here given that there is a discrepancy between the residential and the office space, the commercial real estate where do you want to be? >> sure. so i think that, you know, the pricing is really, really impressive we're private investors. we don't necessarily follow public market pricing, but if you look topublic markets as a indicator, you've seen malls really rebound, which is quite surprising malls price as a premium similar to industrial. at the same time you're seeing office with a heavy, heavy discount in the public markets and so i think what that is indicative of is generally a

thought there will be a reopening. industrial remains incredibly tight. the lowest vacancy coupled with the most activity we've ever seen in history in the market. so we're still incredibly bullish on that sector overall august is going to be delayed. corporate users are delaying decisions to return to the office commensurate with delta so i think there will be softening in the office market i also think long-term traditional offices at risk for disruption as we continue to become more mobile, more digitalized long term. >> and i wonder in office in particular, is there going to be kind of a long series of shoes dropping leases, you know, have long lives to them. there wasn't some kind of a reckoning in the middle of the pandemic where lots of bankruptcies or anything like that so it might be a slow reconciliation of supply and demand has that changed the way you approach your office portfolio presumably you some commercial office space in your portfolio

>> i think it has not changed. so before the pandemic and leading up to it we were transitioning from your large very -- large single asset office properties to more medical specialty use type office, smaller, more creative offices that are again located in population growth areas so i think what's changed is how we select our office and what we look for versus not allocating to the sector altogether >> just back to the point on home prices. i know you say it's not a bubble, but how does that get resolved just citing research the s&p case-shiller, three-month average trend now is 23.5% annual growth. according to david rose berg that was 20% during the housing bubble peak back in the 2000s. so how is that not a bubble, and how does that get resolved with affordability? >> again, i think we need a lot of exuberance and a lot of

speculation in the market to create an asset bubble and i just don't see that right now. it is dependent on supply and demand metrics, and it's dependent on new entrants to the market that's why we've seen the strong appreciation we're coming off of a decade of the most undersupplied, underbuilt market in housing that we've ever seen and freddie mac estimated in 2020 that we had a shortage of housing of 3.8 million homes that's significant and as we've moved throughout 2021, that's not again caught up because of delays in construction et cetera so you're going to see softening potentially in pricing it doesn't mean it's a bubble that's going to burst. you know, the two i think don't need to go hand in hand. but you will see some potential softening but again the long-term tailwinds and the undersupply in the market are too supportive of continued appreciation long term right now. >> we'll leave it there. carly, thank you good to speak with you

up next -- death tax under fire one of president biden's signature tax proposals is facing serious pressure from a surprising source. those details next and later -- pollster frank luntz joins us with new results of how the pfizer vaccine approval has impacted those that were unsure about getting the shot we'll be right back on "closing be."ll (♪ ♪) whether it's a technology first, (♪ ♪) a fashion first, (♪ ♪) a science first, (♪ ♪) or a first for us all (♪ ♪) whatever you hope to achieve for your business, cloud first helps you get to value...first (♪ ♪) let there be change accenture

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welcome back dow down 12 points one of president biden's signature tax proposals getting pushback from a surprising source robert frank with the story. >> president biden's plan to tax appreciated assets now facing opposition from farmers, small businesses and even some democrats. biden has proposed getting rid whoofts called the step-up in basis and imposing a capital gains tax on appreciated assets upon death for those who make more than a million dollars a year former democratic senator heidi

hyde camp leading a not for profit the middle class would have to sell their businesses or farms to pay the tax she said it would be the first time in america that we'd actually tax unrealized gains and taxpayers should not pay a tax unless an asset is actually sold >> i'm trying to sound the alarm, both economically and politically for democrats, that this is not a path to walk, which is taxing unrealized gains. >> biden's plan would exempt family farms and businesses that continue to be owned by those families but also allows 15 years for families to pay the taxes on businesses not exempt or being sold the white house also saying only the richest 0.3% of taxpayers would actually end up paying the tax. guys >> all right that's too many for some people i guess. thank you very much. still ahead -- may be time

to update your online dating profile. match group says this fall will be the biggest cuffing season of all time and ceo of match americas will explain what that means for your love life and for his company's stock. here's a check on bonds. yields have been little changed today. was a bit of a rally in the 10-year earlier after that poor adp number pretty solid right now around 1.7% on the 10-year. at pnc bank, we believe in the power of the watch out. that's why we created low cash mode, the financial watch out that gives you the options and extra time needed to help you avoid an overdraft fee. it's one way we're making a difference. low cash mode on virtual wallet from pnc bank.

shares of campbell's soup higher after beating quarter earnings estimates campbell's guiding for flat sales to a 2% decline. mostly all better than wall street was expecting and the stock has been an underperformer i talked to the ceo. he told me the brands are continuing to build momentum despite choppy waters of inflation and labor shortages. he said they're still able to demonstrate the health of the brands pointing to market share gains in soup and snacks saying he's optimistic that that will continue into the second half of the year he said in part in a world post-covid, we see an environment that includes at-home lunches, cooking at home the consumer's behavior changed. and snacks were growing prepandemic, during and now coming out of it this quarter, inflation is a huge topic he says we saw it in the mid-single digits. but as they go into next

quarter, they see inflation in the high single digits actually a significant increase there. the ceo noted inflation is broad based and it's in commodities and packaging and sees a sustained inflationary environment for all of those arguing this is transitory it's going to be key for them to continue to raise prices on the consumer and get that balance right. the other major factor we talked about was labor. he said he had never experienced the kind of pressure that we have on labor. they are running about two times the s&p rate that they would normally run at just for a data point of how bad that is mike, i found it really interesting when he said the two keys to the momentum and outlook of the year, inflation, getting that pricing right, and labor. and the labor shortages and how competitive it is out there to get people on these factory lines. they're having to raise wages. having to increase benefits and get everything right on the environment and sustainability all of these things that

employees want because it's so competitive and they have so many choices which was really interesting. the only other factoid is the frank's red hot goldfish was the number one selling cracker in the entire category. so they're optimistic about the innovation as well >> wait. number one seller in the whole category, like outselling the classic ones >> cracker category. >> cracker, okay interesting. >> it was impossible to get. >> we'll have to wait for the ice cream flavor that comes out. >> i don't know if they'll go down that road but definitely a successful collaboration with frank's red hot. >> thank you time for a cnbc news update with rahel solomon >> here's what's happening at this hour. president biden will go to new orleans on friday to survey the damage from hurricane ida. he'll also meet with local officials who were expected to press for more aid for the areas worst hit by the storm and california, officials say they're making progress against that wildfire that has been approaching communities along

the south end of lake tahoe. firefighters say they're getting help from weaker winds the united nations warning that food supplies are running dangerously low in afghanistan about one-third of the country's 38 million people don't know if they'll as whave a meal every d. search and rescue still looking for five sailors missing after their navy helicopter crashed off the coast of california a sixth sailor who was rescued is now in stable condition you're now up to date. sara, back to you. >> rahel, thank you. a market flash here. let's get to meg tirle >> the stock is down more than 7 trs after a drug safety communication about an entire class of drugs which includes the abbvie renvok for things like arthritis it comes after it looked at a pfizer drug zelgans. they saw an increased risk of serious heart-related events such as heart attack, stroke,

cancer, blood clots and death. and the fda reacting so strongly they are now putting this warning on the entire class. so that's what's hitting the abbvie stock right now and also restricting the use of these drugs until they've tried another class of drugs first bernstein saying some of the winners coming out of this are regeneron and amgen because they make drugs for some of these inflammatory conditions. so this really rocking the pharma world today back to you. >> meg, thank you. when we come back, we'll talk to the ceo of match group america. it's about how vaccines and booster shots are going to play into the fall cuffing season which apparently mike santoli knows all about. after the bell, quarterly results flom chewy we'll talk to the company's ceo right after the numbers cross before he jumps on the conference call with analysts. "closing bell" will be right back

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shares of match group down around 13% over the last two months but the company sees tail winds ahead as it gears up for the biggest cuffing season of all time that's in quotes joining us is match group america's ceo to tell us all about this great to speak with you. we've promised that you're going to tell everyone what this all means in terms of cuffing season what is means for your business and whether you're seeing observable increases in interest by your customers for finding a

relationship through the colder months >> yeah, so throughout the pandemic, we've seen larger interest in focus on long-term relationship and as opposed to vaccinations, first caught up with friends and family who they had not seen in a long time and now as we approach the holiday season, i think people are focusing on themselves and the most important search for them which is what's the right partner for me >> and is there a seasonal aspect to it that you can see or does it get lost in the mix of what else is going on because, obviously, people are also arguably going out more than they had in the middle of the pandemic >> yeah, it does and as i said, like earlier, people focus on the things they miss they got travel out of the way met their friends, family and the holiday season is always a strong season for us so this time we expect that to be very strong given the pent-up need and demand for long-term relationships. >> what are you seeing

specifically around some of the covid trends as we've seen reopening and people get vaccinated and now boosters. how is it changing the way they interact and date and match? >> so one really interesting thing that we've seen is the user video so before the pandemic there was hardly any use knoage of video we saw it pick up throughout the pandemic and now what we've seen is this interesting phenomenon called hybrid dating. so what singles are doing is they first get on video to really get to know the person to see if there's a spark and then they want to be thought of about who they want to step out for because it's a pandemic going on so they're first using the video to focus on, okay, these are the people i'm interested in and then they're going out and meeting only those people. so they are realizing as they've done that, this is a really effective way to use dating apps and i expect this even beyond

the pandemic >> what does your research tell you about roughly how many different apps a typical customer may be using at a given time i wonder how much you have to surf to the next feature that may be some other app might be offering or go out and look for other niche markets where you might be able to acquire one >> yeah, so typically we've seen consumers use about 3 to 4 dating apps at any time on their phone. but they may be actidenve on jut one they're using extensively at any point in time. >> which of the apps are most popular? i see here you are bullish on hinge. why hinge as opposed to tinder which has been such a hot growth area >> yeah, tinder is a strong business for us but lately hinge is really becoming the app of choice for relationship oriented millinials it's on track to double revenue this year and seeing strong growth because of the appeal of this

very intentional app in an environment where people are becoming more intentional and it's showing up in the numbers >> what are the global trends? i know that one of the key insights about the business was that dating apps in different cultures actually cut somewhat differently. for many places, it was a unique ability for single people to kind of widen the potential group of partners that they might have and how has that been developing over the years >> so technologywise, we see common trends across the world so people like, for instance, swiping like you see the profiles laid out and lately video. where we see differences in culture is what they focus on in filtering down the choices so we adapt our apps in different culture based on what is most important to singles in that particular geography or culture. and that's been the journey we've been on on cupid for the last two years

>> wanted to get your take on what south korea did which has implications for match group you're in the americas but without match having to pay the high fees for the apen app star, 30% or use the statement system there is that something that could happen in the u.s. where apple is also facing scrutiny over antitrust behavior in the app store? >> yeah, we see this as a landmark legislation for the whole tech industry, not just us the removal of the 30% fee is going to free up so many resources for innovation foster competition and give more choices to the customer. so we clearly see there's a big positive in the south korean market, and we know legislators not only just the u.s. but across the world are taking a close look at this unprecedented power the app stores have today on developers. so curious to see what changes that things. >> it would be a huge positive for you. finally, what does cuffing stand

for? is it handcuffs? where does that come from? >> no one knows actually it does come from the whole, we are putting two people together in a good way. >> okay, that's a good explanation. i knew you weren't going to ask, so i had to. >> i was afraid to ask i was afraid of the real answer so i'm glad you did, sara. i appreciate it. >> thank you for having me still to come -- neo cuts its delivery outlook in pbh. those stories and more next in the market zone. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates,

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♪ 14 minutes left in the trading day. we're in the "closing bell" market zone. commercial-free coverage of all the action going into the close. ritholtz wealth management's josh brown major averages kind of mixed and losing steam the nasdaq is on track for a record close dow down 52. mike, if you look at where the buying is on this first day of september, it's pretty defensive. real estate, utilities, mega cap technology, but then the small caps which is an odd pairing. it's not like we're seeing bond yields moving lower. it's hard to make too much of why, especially three days before labor day weekend, but any sense of what's driving it >> small caps seem like obviously a little bit of a catch-up trade new month flows and what it does to various parts of the market pretty tough to necessarily

infer where they're headed from here, but i do think it's on the quiet side the market is holding the highs but not really like there was a new reason to change much once we got into a new month. mentioned earlier, six new highs in the last eight trading days up all of 2% we're missing economic data on balance lately but the market held together because yields are steady and we have that big defensive slug also the emerging growth stuff is working, too, if you look at spicier stuff. it's starting to act better. >> how are you feeling, josh, as we kick off what's historically a weak month for stocks with the nasdaq as a new record >> i'm feeling pretty good you know, it's late august my screens and everything i look at, like what i'm basically seeing is a little bit of what you talked about, that defensive trade. but then there are a lot of things incongruous and wouldn't seem to go together. but i think i have the big

picture figured out from talking to people. you start off looking at something like tesla looks great again. 22% below its record high. looks like it wants to get back toward that territory. that helps arc and what's good for the ark etf is good for a whole contingent of stocks ignored for a long time now and so ark is looking good starting to get back toward those lower highs. tech is pretty much still on fire facebook all-time high today amazon is on a hilarious run absolute trash after their earnings already 10% off those recent lows and then you have something like the ipo etf start to break out why is the ipo etf breaking out at the same time as the iyr real estate trust sometimes things that have no relationship to each other whatsoever happen to be moving in the same direction. there's not a great story to tell china tech is rebounding

kweb up almost 5% on the day nobody is talking about it that was a big area of consternation as recently as two days ago so the only stocks that really seem to be taking a breather are cyclicals. the russell 2000 at the highest level since july and i think the big picture, why all of that is occurring at once, not that these things are related to each other that i just listed but this is the big thing. we're going to get the kids back to school in the next couple of weeks nationwide and the unemployment benefits are now -- the federal unemployment benefits have now sunsetted. you're going to see surges in hiring because people just need to be hired and people need to hire i think those misses in the economic data were mostly chalked up to renewed fears about covid with the delta stuff. that's going to work itself out one way or the other and there's nothing we can really do about that but i really feel like we're going to get through that hiccup

in the economic data, be back off to the races again this fall as people are able to leave their house, go back to work i think that data will turn up the surprise index, et cetera. stocks have gotten cheaper this year >> yeah, not great and consumer confidence, but what everybody is saying is the same thing which is that worried about delta and having trouble finding workers. i think those things will work themselves out and stocks have gotten cheaper over the first eight months of this year. multiple is down two points since january. so i think people come back in and buy them again, and i think you're seeing that being sniffed out this week with 6 out of 8 days up in the last two weeks. >> yeah, and, you know, we've been in a little bit of the wait and see mode in terms of how this is going to develop probably finished wading into the see phase. phil lebeau is here. shares of ev-maker lucid are

down sharply with the lock-up period expiring today. but the rest of the ev space is -- >> when you look at the ev stocks, this is a lucid issue. we're also going to talk about workforce. with lucid, the lock-up ended yesterday and today was the first day people could sell. some people decided they wanted to sell. the stock has been down between 9% and 11% today i haven't been able to check the total numbers in terms of, if this is the biggest sell-off in terms of shares of lucid, in terms of the stock moving lower that we've seen since it went public but clearly you're seeing pressure on lucid that we have not seen in some time. then workhorse late today "the wall street journal report"ing that the s.e.c. is reportedly investigating work horse we've reached out to the ev automaker to see if they have any comment on this. nothing back from them at this point and take a look at charge point. we're just a few minutes from the quarterly results from that company. we'll have them for you and

bring them to you as soon as we get them should be shrtly after the close. >> down almost 20% thank you, phil. robin hood is planning to roll out an early deposit feature used by some of the rivals josh lipton with the details >> could a new feature be coming to robinhood that's what this new report is now suggesting here. bloomberg saying the company is working on a new feature that would let users receive their paychecks via direct deposit up to two days earlier. more competition with companies like paypal and wealth front robinhood has no comment on this report, but remember, ceo did tell andrew ross sorkin that this app wouldn't be just for trading. that investors would see robinhood continue diversifying its business lines and revenue over time. that stock hit an all-time high of $85 on august 4th, but currently it's about 50% off that level back to you all. >> josh lipton, thank you. i know, josh brown, you haven't

been a huge fan of robinhood at these valuations this latest story just adds to the narrative around competition, that it's heating up around paypal and others and what that might do to margins and the user base. >> that's a defensive announcement that is basically being made to directly respond to all the headlines paypal got about planning a brokerage feature. what's so funny about fintech and i have been following this space for ten years. way before any of them were public what's so funny about fintech is it's aping what we saw with banks in the real world. all these guys sound like sandy wild to me and bank of america was talking about paypal becoming a super app or venmo becoming a super app they have no choice. how many financial apps do you think the average young person wants to have on their phone so that we know it's going in that direction

robinhood should do what they say they're going to do. and i wouldn't be surprised to see coinbase start trading stocks next year and see paypal start selling insurance. like we know these things are going to turn into financial supermarkets on your phone just like their brick and mortar predecessors 30 years ago tried to do that in real life. it's really fun to watch we've seen it all before a couple of them will become huge and very successful most won't >> hey, here it seems like everyone is going to let you trade stocks on money where you haven't even earned your paycheck yet and you can trade it away. that's progress maybe on some level. let's move on to pbh top performer on the s&p 500 today. a big earnings beat last night driven by a boost in online and international shoppers bvh noted north american sales are expected to remain challenging as tourism levels continue to struggle to recover

from the pandemic. the company gave strong third quarter guidance the stock up 14% plus today, josh it's one of those stocks that trades at a modest multiple. it's kind of a good operator in a tough space. but on the move today, maybe get regvalued for some staying power. >> you know what it is a good operator and it is in a tough space that's reason enough for 90% of investors to completely tune it out. they don't want these types of situations and the reason why is we're in a moment where there are so many good operators in a good space so there are probably 20 sectors i can think of with total addressable markets that are growing from 10 to 50% and each of those categories you can find three or four companies with ease growing revenue and earnings 20% a year. why would you look at calvin klein and tommy hilfiger in what looks like a private equity portfolio that happens to be

publicly traded. that's why the stock has been ignored. the move today, if they can follow through tomorrow, might be a breakout of a consolidation range that's existed since january. so i guess it's worth keeping an eye on as a trade. and i just don't know a lot of people who want to commit long term capital to a company that might or might not be good at selling underwear. it just -- i don't get the appeal >> clearly you didn't buy into the kardashians calvin klein underwear ad what about other picks in retail who is a good operator growing in a good space there? >> yeah, it's not really a big space for me but i'm in amazon i really like store capital. it's in this group with the reits. and only about one-third of their tenants are retailers. they tend to be experiential retailer like bass pro shops, for example. but i feel like it's a better way to play the space. you don't have to guess is tommy

hilfiger going to be hot this quarter? oh, no, wait, maybe kanye and the gap but maybe he's actually crazy. like you don't have to do that just say, all right. i think the consumer is great. i think the consumer wants to look good. i think fashion itself is making a comeback and people care about their appearance again i just want to own companies that are going to benefit regardless simon properties has been one of my biggest winners ever. i've been talking about the stock on the show since it was in the 60s it's 135 today i still think the stock is going way higher this san example of a company where you get the upside of retail without having to guess at the fashion you have less up side than somebody who gets the fashion right? yes. but i'm at an age where i don't need that kind of aggravation. >> you just aren't as clued into the fashion trends simon property up 60% this year. mike, less thantwo minutes to go what are you seeing in the

internals? >> kind of firm relative to some sluggish action in the big cap index. slightly more advancing volume on the new york stock exchange than declining volume. it's been the case all day does fit in with small caps outperforming but not really decisive in either direction here a lethargic afternoon in the markets. netflix, though, you talked about the stocks going sideways. now bursting higher on year to date basis it's gone vertical trying to get out in front of that january 20th close that was on an earnings report this is on no real news. we'll see if that can sustain itself it's a quick spurt to the upper end of what's been a durable range. the volatility index is down around 16. cracked below 16 earlier today for a little while you would think there would be some down side drag on this because we're hitting new highs. but, no, we basically are holding all this floor around 16 as the market goes out the s&p 500 nearly just flirting with the flat line toward the

close. dow negative by 60 points. the russell 2000, though, still maintaining a gain of more than 0.5% and the nasdaq also providing a little bit of defense, up about 30 basis points on the day, sara [ closing bell ringing ] there is the close nasdaq all-time high s&p unchanged. welcome back to "closing bell. i'm sara eisen with mike santoli in for will fred frost today we finished up the day the dow closed lower the industrials and financials under pressure that's what weighed on the dow caterpillar, amgen, honeywell the biggest drags. strength in disney, salesforce s&p unchanged on the day utilities, staples, technology, health care, all higher.

all the places investors go for defense. and energy, financials, industrials and materials were lower today. that explains the nasdaq record high megacap technology in demand on the first trading day of september. apple, net flex, facebook, amazon, google, all finished the day higher comcast also at new highs today. the chinese names also did well like baidu the small caps also had a strong day closing up only 3%, the russell 2000 off the all-time highs got as low as down 10% off the highs in recent weeks and steadily climbing back coming up this hour, a market outlook from a strategist who has been one of the biggest bulls on wall street find out why he is now downgrading his market forecast straight ahead plus, online pet supply retailer chewy set to release latest quarterly results the company's ceo will be here to break down the numbers before

he talks to analysts on his conference call. first up, josh brown is still with us. ron van lipstein from ubs private wealth management joins the conversation first to you, mike, on the faang strength to start off the month and defensive tilt to the market what do you make of it all >> definitely an emphasis on the megagap growth stock even there, i kind of lost a little bit of steam going through the day. apple closed $2.50 off its raint day high so i think it seems like a bit of a tired feel to things. the real talk coming into today was about streaks and seasonals. the streaks the market is riding seven straight months up on the s&p 500. only happened 13 times before. and living memory. usually what comes after is further strength but sometimes not before you get a little chop same with the seasonals. september is supposedly weak but when the year has been strong, maybe not that much of a

decisive factor. it's the atmospherics. nobody had to buy today. up 3% last week and floats have been very strong just holding together, i think, waiting for that jobs report more than anything >> josh brown, you mentioned that you were also noticing the defensive feel to the market do you pay attention to things like seasonals and worry about september going into a period where we do expect the federal reserve to look to start scaling back some of the stimulus? >> not really. i think the concern about this time of year is that historically, we have had some of the worst crashes take place in october and markets having topped in advance of that in september. the classic example being 1929, of course. people came back from labor day. did a little selling that put the top in the market and a few weeks later, black friday, black monday

and then, of course, the lehman brothers crash of '08. we know that you get some pretty big storms historically in october and markets have historically topped in september. we also know there will be some volatility when the fed does actually utter the word taper officially, which i don't play that game. you guys know that so if that's why people are plowing money into treasuries yielding 1.3%, that's their problem. i'm willing to bear that volatility my time horizon is more than one year, right? so different cross currents in the market based on different people acting with what they think is their own best interest but in the end, it's a new generation taking over the market they have disposable income. they're in demand from employers. they're plowing money into their 401(k)s at record rates and stocks are going up. if we have a taper tantrum or whatever and somebody thinks

that's a reason to make a big change in their portfolio, that's their problem they need to work with an adviser and take their hands off the button we don't do that we don't play that i eat volatility for dinner. that's where i am with that. and if people want to get defensive ahead of that, they're welcome to do that nothing wrong with that. it's probably better than running and hiding >> rod, where would you advise people look in terms of the offense versus defense spectrum in terms of allocating into this market or away from it or within it cyclicals have lagged a little bit the last couple of months. is that an opportunity or warning? >> mike, thank you what we're seeing at the ubs from this perspective. our clients are seeing typical summer markets volatility is low. trading volume is way below 20-day moving averages so i think it would be dangerous to read anything into the current price action and take that as a real indication of what the market sentiment should

be we still believe that the momentum, the flow and reopening of the economy is going to be favorable for financials we think that energy, those things that value stocks that we've seen, a lot of cash flow into, value here, large cap value over the last several weeks, we think that that is the trend, and it will continue. it took a little bit of a three-month vacation between may and today for these trends to restart themselves because we've had a lot of noise and the market has climbed many walls of worry but we really do think it's important to stay focused on the reopening trade and that comes down to value stocks, financial energy, those type of things some of the things that did not do particularly well today's light volume >> giving you a chance perhaps to add back on those meanwhile, optis results are out. josh lipton has the numbers. >> q2 results, loss of 11 cents.

revenue $315.5 million street was $296.5 million. q3, they are guiding for a loss of between 24 and 25 cents versus expectations of a loss of 34 cents revenue guidance, 325 to $327 million versus expectations of $323 million for the year they are guiding for a loss of between 74 and 77 cents versus expectation there of a loss of $1.11 and for the year guiding between 1.243 and $1.25 billion. the expectation $1.22 billion. rpo versus subscription revenue up 57% to $2.24 billion. expectation was 2.21 chewy's results are also out. courtney reagan wuth with those num buyers >> the revenues are missing at $2.16 billion.

the streak looking for $2.2 billion. that does represent though a 27% growth the ceo who i know you'll have on shortly says that active customers increased 21% in the quarter and 31%. so far the street is not impressed with that. the shareholder letter just being posted when we get more we'll come back to you you have sumit singh who will be on your show as well >> we'll talk to him in a few minutes ahead of the conference call the stock is down about 10%. josh, this was a winner, not just a pandemic winner but had been growing prepandemic and the thought was that maybe even if we've seen a peak in pet adoption during covid, people are still going to be spending money on their pets. still seeing strong double-digit growth in number of customers, revenues expectations were also pretty high >> i think there's a cyclical bull market story that had to do with the pandemic but i also think there was a secular bull

market here that can go on for years and years to come as pets become just more and more like members of the family. and this is the type of company that's perfectly positioned to benefit. i was in l.a. last week. my friend got her dog potato tattooed onto her arm. that's a customer for life for chewy. and more and more americans are becoming that way with their bets especially in a pandemic, but even beyond that so i do like this thing long term to echo something santoli said in an earlier segment, it's a great operator in a sometimes difficult space like selling dog food is not always easy, but if they are going to kill this thing on one quarter because of a whisper number and you are bullish on the space, i would step in and buy it i think it's one of the better new ipos of the last few years >> you are saying maybe they should get into tattoo business? >> i'm saying they should

absolutely be getting into dog tattoos. no, listen, there are very few pure plays on pets you can do pet health. and there are a few other players there. and then you can do pet retail this is basically the best name in that space. so i think if you like the space, you want to take advantage of these types of moments where people are being short sided. >> all right we're definitely going to talk much more about chewy as the hour goes on the latest adp employment report coming in much weaker than wall street estimates steve liesman looks at what that could mean for the july jobs report which, of course, will be released on friday steve? >> yeah, mike, goldman sachs lowering its forecast for the jobs to 400,000 from 600,000 the weak adp employment report and high frequency jobs data suggesting the delta outbreak sapping some of the labor

market 374,000 for the private sector street looking for 600,000 and a forecast for friday's report includes government and private sector at 720,000. hr software company ukg found hours worked fell 2.4% from mid-july to mid-august growth fell hardest in the southeast where the delta variant, of course, has been the most widespread. spencer hill from goldman sachs told me yesterday before the adp number, we've learned the delta variant is exerting a larger drag on consumer confidence, services consumption and the labor market than initially expected meanwhile, morgan stanley says forget about it. it's sticking with its forecast citing big recent misses by adp. the federal reserve likely wants greater confidence that it has seen the worst of the economic effects of the delta variant before announcing the taper. >> steve, am i right in recalling the august payroll

number is among the noisiest in terms of how much it gets revised or what the wide range of estimates are i don't know because it's seasonal adjustments or something like that? >> yeah, it's a ter eyrible -- t a lot of job growth in august. the job growth we get and then you lay or top of that that this is a pandemic. and no single thing has done a good job really forecasting jobs in the pandemic. adp's been off in the last three months an absolute 337,000 during the pandemic, mike, it's been off by 851,000 on average per month over that period of time you can see the error rate there compared with 65,000 normally before the pandemic. >> so it's way off and we can't make too much of adp. let's just say the jobs number on friday is a miss and it's a big miss what does the fed do with that does that change the taper timeline >> you know, i still think they

are going to taper this year i really think there's a lot of support on the board for beginning to reduce that, whether or not the friday number is weak. i think a strong number might pull ahead to the september meeting possibly, an announcement i think of that 500,000 or 600,000 range we're probably still on track it's tough to say. remember what the english exercise to do the language exercise. we have to go from clear progress to substantial further progress so you figure out what the numbers are around that. >> that's a question that only the fed chair can answer steve, thank you more results to tell you about. charge point just out. phil lebeau with the numbers >> this is a stock that's moving higher for a couple of reasons revenue coming in better than expected $56.1 million. the street expecting revenue of $49 million in the second quarter. another reason the stock moving higher, they are raising guidance for q3 and full year revenue. by the way, in terms of

earnings, reporting a gap loss of 29 cents a share. don't have a comparable estimate there. in terms of the q3 revenue guidance, they're now guiding to bring in $60.5 million the estimate was for $55 million. and full-year between 225 and $235 million the estimate on the street was for revenue of $207 million. so an increase in their revenue guidance, not only for q3 but for the full year in shares of chargepoint moving higher. >> nice -- more than 7% pop after hours. phil, thank you. want to finish off the conversation by hearing from you on the story of the day which was really technology. nasdaq closing another record high big cap tech, the faangs leading the way. what are you telling your clients about how much exposure to have to these names given that you also like some of the cyclical value plays >> we really do. and this has been a great time to be in the technology business, especially the big cap tech which just keeps coming through. we're actually thinking it's

time to take some of that technology focus and go back to the basics thinking more about value stocks and perhaps taking some of those technology earnings and winnings and moving them into, you know, the smaller cap technology names. also into some of the private investment activities we've been talking about with clients i think that this, what you are seeing, is we're in that inflection point between when and just like you talked about, the adp job numbers versus what we expect tomorrow, we're still looking above consensus because we think that a slowdown in unemployment benefits, people going back to school, a pick-up in the service and hospitality, those types of things are really going to continue to carry us and is going to carry those sectors forward. and so that's why we really are continuing to be bullish on value and financials and energy, even though, you know, god love technology stocks. we all need them in our portfolio. >> as we saw today, josh brown,

thank you for joining us good to see you both chewy shares are plunging after a revenue miss up next, the online pet supply retailer ceo will join us to talk about the numbers and whether consumers are starting to cut back on pet spending. later, one of the most bullish strategists on wall street explaining why he's now channgis tgi hune on the markets. "closing bell" back in just two minutes. thanks for coming. now when it comes to a financial plan this broker is your man. let's open your binders to page 188... uh carl, are there different planning options in here?

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quarter. gross margin did increase 200 basis points to 27.5%. but the shares are under pressure here by about 11% and i know that you'll talk to the ceo right now for more details. back to you, sara and mike >> courtney, thank you that conference call kicks off in a bit first, ahead of it is chewy's ceo sumut singh. the market reaction not great to these numbers. looks like expectations were very high around guidance, around the customers which was a miss and the top line. how do you explain that? >> hi, sara. good to see you. good to be here. we are really bullish about the business and the story and strategy has not changed from the several times that i've come spoken with you. let me tell you about that we grew revenue 27%. over a year last year, revenue growing 45% to 50% so we really like the momentum in the business. the consumer is healthy. growth ads this year running about 20% higher than in 2019

levels and what's equally exciting or even more exciting from a concern is customer spending on our platform is at an all-time high in fact in q2, customer spending was $404, up 14% on a year-over year basis more customers, they are spending more, staying with us longer, and we continue to deliver very strong comps. so overall we're ready for the performance of the business and the way the teams are operating amidst this difficult environment. happy to enact a strategy that we have in place >> there was this feeling, this narrative that it was as good as it gets for a company like chewy. between everybody being at home and shopping online. everybody adopting pets and spending a lot on their pets and that was bound to slow in terms of how many customers and how much they were spending on the site is that something you're seeing as we do reopen? >> yeah, so we're seeing two things as i said, gross customer ads

are running lower than what we saw during the peak of the pandemic and that was expected. what's really interesting is when you look at traffic, overall online traffic towards the pet category, q2 traffic was flat to a little bit down, but traffic to chewy's website, to our platforms, were actually up 20%. that tells you two things. one that the consumer influence to our platform and buying behaviors are strong we're actually picking up share from a market that actually is reeling from kind of the post-impact of the highs of the last year. but on our platform we see engagement being pretty strong and customer conversions are quite strong >> you mentioned basically predictable that you might have a slowdown in the rate of customers. what does that mean for your need to spend more to get that ramped up again? i'm trying to look ahead to how the financial model evolves as this business gets larger.

and as it continues to grow on the top line at the moment it's projected to be modestly profitable into next fiscal year but what are your anticipations in terms of how margins can do better as the business gets bigger >> yeah, sure. good question. when you look at -- let's break it down. gross margin level where you actually see the impact of customer engagement, you know, our broad offerings, the expansion we brought to the market and the new services of products and solutions we've launched and benefits of the scale, gross margin expanded 200 basis points reaching all-time highs for the company. that tells you the engagement is really high. and the flow through down to the ebitda when you flow down margins we'll produce two times more ebitda this year than last year and on a two-year stack basis, we're going to incrementally deliver $300 million of more ebitda than we were doing in 2019 so the story is actually clean

cut as the current macro environment given the pressures and incremental investments we're making in wages and benefits to be able to get folks into the warehouses and the incremental pressure of the spend on marketing which we are seeing as a result of ad cost promisely going up in 2021, that is sort of where the ebitda is getting hindered a bit when you look at the gross margin, the overall momentum and performance of the business, it remains intact and remains pretty strong. we're bullish about the future from a topline point of view and guiding to 80 to 100 basis points ebitda expansion on a year over year basis our guidance is intact. readingr letter now you're launching a market place for veterinarians. explain how this will work and what it's going to add to the business >> we're very excited. it's revolutionary service that we're bringing to the market and it's a private curated

marketplace where the veterinarians get exposed to 20 million chewy customers. they get to list their offerings and products on chewy.com. set their prices approve prescriptions and, you know, earn revenue as a result of that on the back of improved customer experience. so we believe it's industry defining because so far shopping either is done in the vet channel or online. and here we are bringing a solution to the veterinarians side that actually offers them a fuel e-commerce solution and an opportunity to partner and collaborate with the leading player like us so in some way we're staying true to the mission of making pet health care more affordable and accessible to all pet parents in the u.s >> we've seen zoeta's stock skyrocket which makes the medications. gong got to get you to comment on the stock price. the stock down almost 11% here after hours. so what are you telling investors who look across a lot of these misses on some of these

expectations around the guidance, especially >> we were not smarter when the stock was 100 and so we're not overly concerned of the stock price. that's not much to comment there's not much to comment there. what i will tell you is we're bullish because the strategy is intact business momentum strong customer is healthy and overall we continue to innovate that pace and execute the strategy we've laid down over the last few years. we're happy about that and bullish about the business >> it is off the low since you started talking. thanks for joining us. ceo of chewy up next -- pollster frank luntz on why so many parents are still holding off on vaccinating their kids despite the fda's cce.idal of pfizer's cov vain iversity, we never stop celebrating our students. from day one to graduation to your dream job, that's why we're keeping your tuition low for the 10th year in a row. - [student] the affordability and the quality of education,

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revenue range of 550 to $565 million. the street looking for 551 so that is mostly above. it does see the third quarter earnings of 23 to 30 cents compared to 27 cents estimate. the company gives second quarter comps of 39.2% year over year so that's compared to 2020. remember a pandemic year and that is also above the street accounts estimates of 36.1%. the company is not giving full-year guidance due uncertainty of the environment and we should note that shares are down about 10%, even though this was a largely decent report for the company besides that revenue miss here. but we should note the stock is up about 89% in a year back over to you >> good point. courtney, thank you. a new survey shows that more than 52% of employers could impose a covid vaccine mandate in their workplace by the end of the year this comes on the heels of the

fda approving pfizer's vaccine among unvaccinated people, 53% say they do not plan on getting the vaccine. let's bring in pollster, communication analyst frank luntz. he partnered with the beaumont foundation on the poll what are the biggest headlines as it relates to this question that employers are trying to figure out about whether they have to mandate a vaccine to bring people back to work? >> well, there's a special moment right now kids going back to school. you've got the fda giving full approval for the pfizer vaccine. and you've got concern over the delta variant. and those three should encourage adults and even young people to get vaccinated and yet, right now, the u.s. is not even in the top ten global my concern is that if we continue to see this hesitation, it's going to have a tremendous

impact on the economy. as parents who have to stay home, as parents will be focused on concerns for the security for their own children and that they won't be able to get the economy back up in order. in the end, our economy does not function the way that it should unless parents are back working and not having to take care of the kids at home >> no question about it. what have you found as far as the decision from the fda to grant full approval to pfizer and what that's going to mean for increased uptake in vaccination? how big of a factor was that holding people back? >> it's a very big factor. number one concern we've been calling for debeaumont for the last eight months and the lack of fda approval was the greatest hesitation so you'll see this tremendous pick-up in vaccines over the next 30 days and hopefully corporations don't have to mandate it but what delta airlines for example is doing is saying, no, you get a chance to choose whether you get vaccinated but because you'll cost us more money in your health

requirements, then you'll have to pay more for your health insurance. i think that's the perfect way to handle it in the end, the public does not want to mandate it, but they want everyone to get vaccinated. and one more point the impact of the combination of delta, the schools and the fda, when you still have 1 out of 4 americans saying they're not going to get vaccinated, that's a tremendous number. and the consequence of that is, we are never going to hit herd immunity we're going to continue to be impacted by these variants if that number stays where it is. i'm very pessimistic unless we can get more people vaccinated and reduce that concern. >> frank, is it your read that that one quarter of americans or more than half of those unvaccinated who say they absolutely will not get it, are they beyond persuasion at this point or is there an amount of incentives and inconveniences that they might respond to down the road maybe the heat gets dialed down

slightly on the issue if that happens? >> well, that's the question and my answer right now based on the polling is that you'll have to do some sort of carrot and stick. if you're in an industry where you can be affected by the spread of the variant, then you have to take action. the public will get vaccinated if they know they can't enter restaurants. they'll get vaccinated if they know they cannot fly they will get vaccinated if they know that their kids cannot attend school. we know this the objective is not to mandate it s it the objective is to have protocols. your life returns to normal if you followthe protocol if you don't, then there are consequences to that >> i think it's an important takeaway for businesses. especially in the point about mask protocols instead of saying mask mandates so people don't feel like their liberties are taken away from

them i wanted to ask about kids and how likely vaccinated parents are to vaccinate their children and why the rate is so low on kids 12 to 18 that are eligible now to be vaccinated. >> because those -- those parents are the ones least likely to be vaccinated themselves if you are over age 50, virtually everyone has got it. if you're under age 40, you still have a very high degree of parents not vaccinated so they're not vaccinating their kids the key here is to get teachers involved, pediatricians involved, get pharmacists involved and doctors involved. we need a personal outreach. in fact, everyone who is watching now who is from the medical profession, please, get involved in this discussion. the public will trust you more a pediatrician is the most credible source for information and your pediatrician is the most credible of all >> we call ours many times a month, i would say frank luntz, thank you

appreciate it. still ahead -- several states signaling on to apple's -- signing on to apple's goal of digitizing driver's license and other i.d.s. why that would be a huge deal for investors, though,omg up cin at usaa, we've been called too exclusive. because we were created for officers. but as we've evolved with the military, we've grown to serve all who've honorably served. no matter their rank, or when they were in. a marine just out of basic, or a petty officer from '73.

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time for a cnbc news updead with shep smith. >> in a briefing this afternoon, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff says it is possible that the united states will have to worg with the taliban on counterterrorism strikes in afghanistan. against isis or others working with a terrorist organization against a terrorist organization 2021 cooperation may happen even though general mark milley says the taliban is a ruthless group and it's unclear whether that will ever change in california, a top fire official says they lucked out. he says the weather improved just enough to put a damp or that dangerous caldore fire threatening southern ends of lake tahoe there's also been progress using bulldozers to create fire lines. still hundreds of homes have been destroyed thousands more are even now under threat

and the lights are slowly going back on in some parts of new orleans. about 11,000 homes and businesses have power again, especially on the east side. but across mississippi and louisiana, more than a million utility customers are still in the dark compounding the misery, a brutal heat wave with feels-like temperatures soaring into the triple digits. many low-lying areas still under water. residents waiting for the flooding to recede for trucks to deliver food and other supplies. tonight we're on a fly-along with the louisiana governor john bel edwards to survey the damage that's on "the news," 7:00 eastern cnbc. sara, what line do i get in for a digital driver's license >> oh, you're into this? >> i want this anything to get rid of all the cards in the wallet. anything >> i guess so. i don't know, there are privacy concerns >> i don't care. they can have mine >> good to know. sign you up. shep smith, thank you. back to mike santoli we'll hit that story in a

moment you have been looking at the risk of investing in corporate bonds which have been pretty much in rally mode for a long time now >> they've been very strong. and this alarm is being sounded by one of the biggest bond managers out there blackrock. big fix ed income manager. $3 trillion of fixed income for clients. this chart is the probability by a certain calculation of the total return being negative for junk bonds this goes back to 2005 you see how high this is this is an implied likelihood of actually losing money in these bonds over a period of time, over the next perhaps several months or year now that's obviously not a majority probability, but it's as high as it's been since this period here 2012 into 2013 total returns on debt in 2013, that was the first taper tantrum when the fed started to pull back on qe they were negative weren't negative for a long period of time but bonds are

supposed to hold your value. based on historical volatility of how bonds trade and other input. so it's not necessarily a forecast just saying be on alert. i thought for a while now that your typical retail investor may not be that committed to bonds look at this chart of the debt allocation among clients of bank of america's wealth management private client division. something they've been tracking for a long time. 17%, 18% in bonds. now equities are at record highs in this measure. 64, 65%. the rest being cash and other. so this to me shows a lot of the bonds are owned by institutions that have to buy them. they have to own them. their mandate requires it. it's unclear if that risk implied in owning corporate debt, if that's the case, is really being shouldered by the typical investor out there after this bold run in equities. >> interesting set of charts thanks getting sales numbers from

costco courtney reagan has them >> costco is one of the few retailers that still gives us monthly sales results. for four weeks ended in the end of august 31st, comparable sales were up 14.2% in the united states up 14.7% total e-commerce comps up 2.8% costco shares, though, unchanged. often unchanged when we get these results. we also have a sales number for the month of august. it is $15.75 billion that represents a 16.2% increase in sales sara, back to you. >> still strong growth double-digit breaking news on moderna meg? >> moderna just saying now that it started its submission to the fda for the booster dose of covid-19 vaccine and they've decided to go with the half dose, 50 microgram level for the booster. essentially saying here that as

they've submitted this, they have seen data which shows a robust antibody response against the delta variant so they are continuing to survey the landscape and make sure this is the right way to go. but they're going with the half dose for the third dose of their booster starting that application to the fda now putting yet another piece of information on the fda's plate, as we just heard about these two senior regulators who plan to step down in october and november in the vaccine's unit this, however, expected to be adjudicated perhaps before that september 20th timeline the white house has given for everybody getting eligible for booster shots. >> is this different than pfizer did they submit for a half dose for the booster? >> no, pfizer's is the same vaccine. but pfizer's originally is 30 micrograms so it's one-third the dose of moderna's which is 100 micrograms for the first two shots. >> got it. only you know these things by heart. he was one of wall street's

biggest bulls. now the top strategist we're talking to is cutting his view on the market and where he's still finding opportunities. covid delaying one of the most highly anticipated movies find out which film is being pushed back md the impact that could have on hollywood later on "closing bl.el it's another day. and anything could happen. it could be the day you welcome 1,200 guests and all their devices. or it could be the day there's a cyberthreat. get ready for it all with an advanced network and managed services from comcast business. and get cybersecurity solutions that let you see everything on your network. plus an expert team looking ahead 24/7 to help prevent threats. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities.

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a modern approach to wealth management. the nasdaq posted a record close today. the dow and s&p 500 are trading less than 1% from their own

all-time highs joining suseric johnston ahead of equity derivatives from canter fitzgerald. eric downgraded his outlook for stocks to neutral. it's great to have you on to talk through exactly what led to this shift you have just to set things up, you had been bullish on stocks dating back into -- deep into last year. had a 4400 target on the s&p, which was achieved just last month. now what was it, what were the set of conditions that caused you to step aside just last week or so? >> sure. so for background, we told our clients in november of last year this was the most bullish sort of outlook, risk/reward in equity markets i'd seen in my career between fiscal spending and monetary policy being of historic proportions and that being in combination with the consumer who had significant pent-up demand and pent-up savings coming out of the pandemic and that cocktail, that combination of factors was so

powerful but if you fast forward to where we are now, we're at an inflection point if you look at monetary policy, we think the fed is about 85% of the way through the asset purchases. you have the ecb talking about now tapering you have south korea raising interest rates so monetary policy, globally, is in the process of starting to tighten. fiscal policy that has now turned negative year over year, and we expect that to continue for the next, you know, year and a half and then if you look at growth estimates. so gdp growth has gone from 3.5% estimate to where it is now, which is about 6.5%. that's now peaking earnings estimates have gone up 25%. we think they are about 3% or 4% of the way through that process. so positioning is full and we think september and october could be tricky months for the market so for all those reasons we've moved to a more neutral view with down side risk. >> what are you actually

expecting tactically here? is it more about being wary of the potential for a bit of a churn and a pullback into a correction or do you think that more structurally this is as good as it gets for stocks >> i think it's both, but i think from a structural perspective, i think that returns over the next, you know, year to two years are not going to be great. i think a vast majority of the bull ren is now complete of course, it could -- you could get some overshoot from where we are now. but returns over the next year or two are not going to be that great for equities and then on the other side of the coin from a short-term perspective, september and october, i think are going to be a tricky month as we know, september is the seasonally the worst performing month offer the last 20 years. we actually looked back and said every time the market is up 15% or more heading into september and october, how does the market perform? and the returns have been negative when that's happened in

september and october. 8 of the 14 times since 1950 the market has traded lower. and then, of course, the fomc meeting, payrolls, and then i think one wild card is around the congressional debate over the $3.5 trillion stimulus package. i think the market is pricing in i think the market's price nging in a low likelihood of that getting pass i think it's higher than what the market is thinking and that is taken quite negatively by the market so a number of things in the next two months based on where we are in the market that make me concerned >> why would the market take that negatively if it gets more stimulus. >> i think twofold i think on the spending side, the market i think this time is going to see this as inflationary and actually very problematic. that the congress has gone too far and this being the tipping point then on the tax side, it would include a corporate tax hike, which could, that alone could hit earnings by 5% then

you could have capital gains and individual so i think from both perspectives, i actually think this time the market would have a problem with it. i also think the bond market would have a problem with it >> the fed may try to counter that package if it were to get through. eric, thanks very much >> absolutely. >> erik johnson. >> up next, apple taking the next step to completely digitize your wallet. all the details when "closing bell" comes right back

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follow the company did not specify a hard timeline, but what this means is these state, coordinating with the tsa, will enable this technology at check points so it means these participating users will be able to go to the airport, tap the terminal with their watch and head to the gates. apple says the whole point is to enable a new experience that is easy, fast, and secure back to you all. >> josh, interesting stuff appreciate it. up next, paramount is once again grounding the sequel to top gun. find out when this movie may finally be released when the "closing bel rur l"etns all the things, all around you... where you learn, work, and fly...

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the financial watch out that gives you the options and extra time needed to help you avoid an overdraft fee. it's one way we're making a difference. low cash mode on virtual wallet from pnc bank. paramount delaying the top gun sequel in response to the delta variant. julia boorstin has more on that. first bonds, now top gun >> bond was delayed to this fall, but it's still stuck in the fall viacom is delaying the release of two big movies pushing top gun maverick to memorial weekend next year. that then takes the spot of "mission: impossible" 7, which is pushing to next september 22nd

the studio making these moves after evaluating the rising delta variant and covid cases. the hope is to wait until a more normalized and movie going environment next year. of course, the film has already been delayed multiple times. the question is whether other big movies will move from this fall until next year i have heard from sources that the james bond movie, they are really aiming to stick with the october 8th release and that's just around the corner >> after a long delay, wilfred will be very happy if that comes out. thank you. i feel like, mike, you're kind of a top gun guy >> it's age appropriate. you're asking me if when i was like 16 years old and saw it the first time and saw it more than once in the theatre? it's possible. >> quick final thought on the market nasdaq closing at a record dow and s&p didn't do much but the cyclicals did pull back. >> yes that's been a theme.

it's sort of a low and slow theme out there. bond yields very contained and just a little quiet going into a new month. everyone's aware of the history. so far nothing's disturbed the calm we've got some fed speak tomorrow >> and big jobs report on friday, which is going to be key. >> absolutely. yes. so busy rest of the week despite it being before the holiday. i will see you tomorrow. "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq overlooking times square, this is "fast money." tonight's lineup, guy, tim, karen, and steve tim and kiaren willing along shortly. ford slashing production of america's top selling car as the chip crisis intensifies. plus, apple rallying to a fresh all-time high. should you stick with this trade as we dive deeper into september. and netflix having a blockbuster day. we kic