tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC September 7, 2021 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. here is the top five at 5:00 investors saying so long to summer so will the red hot returns continue or will the fall cool off the market's record run? one wall street firm scaling back the forecast for the american economy this year warning of a harder path ahead lawmakers in d.c. gearing up for what can be described as stress-tember as they race to get the economic agenda approved and keep the government running. china's president and top
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economic adviser working to reassure the market sector as beijing's crackdown continues. and marvel notches another record with the big screen debut. it is happening on tuesday, september 7th. this is "worldwide exchange. good morning, good afternoon, good evening and welcome from where every in the world you are watching i am brian sullivan. here is the trading for september. let's get a check on tuesday money and see if this record-breaking rally will roll on and it looks like it might. not by much. futures are in the green just a touch bouncing back and forth. dow up less than one point
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markets have been on fire lately here is potential good news that i really could make an rbi and september is the worst month for stocks on average, don't believe all of the negative hype when the s&p 500 rises aggressively in the months leading up to september as we have seen this year, september tends to actually be a good month for stocks with the average gain of 1.5% randomly interesting stat. let's look at stretreasuries and what it could mean for the fed's taper talk yields are not moving. 1.36%. a check on oil prices. production is down from the peak in the gulf of mexico. rig nos in the gulf are still offline due to the hurricane and officials are trying to find a
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source to the pipeline leak which caused a slick off the coast of louisiana wti crude is down .50% under $69 per barrel let's look at asia mostly positive. shanghai composite is a big winner nikkei is not far behind european market is a different story. red across the board not by a lot the major averages down a bit. let's hit top stories on this tuesday including more in the millions of americans who will see the expanded unemployment benefits end. br contessa brewer is here with that and more. contessa, good morning >> good morning, brian the benefits which helped americans amid the pandemic officially expired yesterday that means estimated 9 million people will lose the aid entirely
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another 3 million will see weekly checks reduced by $300. the biden administration did not fight to continue those benefits there is a view in the white house that the economy is impr improving despite the jobs miss from friday. the president is securing wins on the broader economic agenda and working through congress. two of china's top leaders are working to assure the private sector amid continued crackdowns president xi jinping and premier hu sent strong messages of support. saying the stricter rules enforcement does not diminish private companies role in the china economic development you have big tech and other sectors feeling the squeeze with added restrictions over the recent months. boeing standoff with a customer coming to an end. ryanair has broken off talks over the purchase of 737 max
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jets worth tens of billions of dollars. they could not agree on price. despite that blow, boeing won ad you can see how the stocks are reacting in extended trading >> not much. boeing down a bit. contessa, see you back in a few minutes. thank you very much. let's kickoff the market week with stocks at record highs and some economic data weaker than expected lately and september in a volatile month. lee baker is the president of apex financial welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we hope you had a good long weekend. let's get real in the fall what are you expecting for the markets that are currently standing at record highs where do we go from here >> i think for here for the rest
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of the year, i would say expect volatility disappointing jobs numbers we also got the issues contessa talked about the fact that the unemployment benefits will go away. i think what that will ultimately do because with most of the benefits, you have to think they are going right back into the economy i expect we will see a little bit of a damper on spending here in the near term as benefits go away continue growth in the economy just a bit slower. >> yeah, of course, we are worried about the wall street firms ratcheting back the gdp forecast a lot of concern about covid i won't call it the delta variant. it is 100% of cases. it is covid at this point, lee, with concern of rising hospitalizations as well and heading into the northeast in the fall how much do investors or all of us who are amateur epidemiologists at this point do
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we watch it? >> i was paying more attention to the delta variant, not the depar delta variant, but the covid numbers. we have to pay attention to it because of what is going on with the delta variant now. we have seen hiccups to the steady progress. if we look at the cruise and airline industries, they have been marching forward until the delta variant at the beginning of july. then a sharp decline i don't think we will go back to a widespread shutdown, but there could be local issues. we have what is the normal cold and flu season right around the corner what is that going to mean for covid? i suspect things would be choppy >> i know a lot of people who have really bad colds.
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all tested and all tested negative you have rsv running around. flu is back. a lot of people are sick they run off to get test and they come back negative. you are right on that point. you have congress. we will talk more about that in a bid. y bit. you have the covid for a year and a half is there anything else we need on the radar or will the money keep flowing in and overpower everything that is what has been happening sdphappening. >> for now, i expect that to continue a bit the volatility out of jackson hole the fed will be accommodating. the money will continue to flow. candidly, the disappointing jobs number extends the amount of time it takes to get to maximum employment for the near time, by that the next three-to-six months, the money will continue to flow.
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>> to wrap it up, lee, does it matter if we taper in november or december or january does that matter another 30 or 60 days? maybe it does. >> candidly, no. for my clients, we are talking about investing and this is retirement and mostly for the long term. whether the taper is in october or november or out in 2023 for my clients doesn't matter a lot. >> 20 years from ow, somebody will not sit on a yacht going, if the fed tapered in november rather than december, everything would have been fine. >> i would be rich absolutely. >> lee, have a great day and good start to the week. >> you do the same >> take care all right. so much to do on tuesday we're just getting started when we come back, crushing the competition again as the latest movie comes in hot why "shang-chi" may have a
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breaking box office records. becoming the highest grossing film over the labor day weekend pulling in $90 million the first asian superhero for marvel faces challenges for getting approved for theaters in china. we have eunice yoon with the latest what is the issue with the movie or disney? >> reporter: brian, you know, i think the movie based on the trailer looked interesting i'm not sure if i will be able to watch it here a lot of that is because there are several issues that the company, marvel universe faces particularly "shang-chi. that is because of a couple of reasons. "shang-chi" source material is seen as racist the movie is based on a character that is a stereotype of chinese evil mastermind fu
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man chu. especially at a time that china is sensitive about the image beijing censors the film industry anyway. the other timing that people are watching here is beijing is cracking down on the entertainment industry and film and celebrities and in the past several days, weibu suspended 21online accounts for fan clubs of k-pop and especially bts and state media blaming the korean culture and japanese culture for looking to efeminate that is the big way for how they want their chinese to behave and the hong kong actor
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renounced his citizenship on state tv this is the way to fend off some of the controversy that is coming up around celebrities having dual citizenship. >> a lot to unpack, eunice on the one hand, they are criticizing the movie, but on the other hand and there are things you can't talk about. on the other hand, they are going after korean and japanese music or online fan clubs because they are worried about the influence that may have on chinese youth. correct? >> reporter: yeah. yeah that's correct so there is also a concern this could -- um, spill over into other foreign fandom and celebrities. it is not only because of the chinese or koreans and japanese, but something that people are watch anin watching for marvel in particular, the next series is "eternals."
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the collector is chloe jae she was scrubbed from the internet in the past week, her name has been taken down from credits from other films and any mention of her at all. that is seen as a potentially another major problem for marvel and disney once it wants to air or screen "eternals" here in china. >> scrubbed her? cancellation wiping her out of movie credits and wiping her off they can do that wipe somebody off the internet your name. you search on the net, i won't say google, because it is not used there you search on the web and it's not there. gone >> reporter: yup that's right >> can you imagine if the american government had some kind of campaign to tell kids, don't listen to canadian rock
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because it is making you soft. it is actually mind blowing. canadian rock is the best rock eunice yoon, thank you very much serious topic. a lot going on in china the last few weeks and months eunice yoon, thank you still on deck. will democrats have a september to remember for all the wrong reasons? jimmy p. is here as the fight begins over trillions in new social spending and new tax hikes. >> announcer: today's big number 87%. that's the share of s&p 500 companies that have reported a positive surprise for the second quarter. according to fact set. if that holds, it would be the most beats since fact set began tracking in 2008 you welcome 1,200 guests and all their devices.
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welcome or welcome back. there is a little look at capitol hill we are waiting for the sun to come up. it is 5:20 a.m the holiday is over. congress is set to begin a multitrillion dollar fight including the deal to raise the debt selling and keep the government runs. of course, trying to pass two different bills totaling $4 trillion in new spending what's going to happen
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let's bring in jimmy pethokoukis. a small matter there raise the ceiling. keep the government going. pass two different pbills totaling $4.5 trillion in spending incredible do we get the debt selliceiling passed and keep the government running or is there another shutdown >> it would not surprise me if we have another shutdown more surprising is the debt ceiling issue. this could be like the dicey situation since 2011 when we gave the s&p downgrade you mentioned that $4 trillion republicans at some point have to make it clear they are against the pretty big increase in the size of government the past 20 years. they are not able to stop the
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reconciliation bill. the the debt ceiling is where they might draw a line in the sand. at the very least, a lot of headline risk and craziness from washington the next couple months >> yeah. i'm old enough to remember me sitting on set in primetime on cnbc walking through the debt ceiling fights in 2011 2014 things happened where we think would not happen because the republicans know they might be very close to swinging the house if not the senate in 2022. politically, both sides have a lot to lose. >> that's really a great point we have a tied senate. really, really close house if democrats should keep that house and keep the senate --
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there is more spending they would like to do that they are not getting in the first term. republicans know that as well. a lot is riding on the next few months democrats can show they are getting stuff done republicans can show their voters they can stop democrats from getting stuff done. >> nancy pelosi has all the cards right now. she holds the cards to getting the bipartisan $1.5 trillion infrastructure bill passed senate passed it that is more traditional roads and bridges and energy grid. then the $3.5 trillion on the social side. human infrastructure whatever term they are using joe manchin said $3.5 trillion no way you and i, about the same age. we asked our parents for $20 because we knew we would only get $10. where does manchin stand on this
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or krysten sinema stand on this? they are the key to everything >> manchin hasn't stopped anything he has a lot of criticism. especially from the progressive democrats. he loves he is from west virginia you will not hurt him by having progressive democrats criticize him. in the end, he is going to vote for a big bill the only question is will it be $3.5 trillion? no it might be $1.5 trillion. $2 trillion. will it be mostly paid for or entirely paid for? that is why we get the tax hike. if you are an investor and assume more spending which is partially through a tax hike or corporate taxes. that will happen that is what you feel sure about. you can feel sure about how the debt ceiling fight is going to play out >> quickly one year from today,
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we regroup and do this do we have higher individual income taxes or higher investment taxes or corporate taxes or all of the above? >> d, all of the above is my prediction that is the direction and the debate is the degree direction, you are right all of the above >> and the markets don't care right now or don't believe it. jimmy pethokoukis, thank you >> thank you that is not all that is going in the world on this busy tuesday. here with the latest on the recovery from ida and the loss of the tv and movie legend the best tv movie character of all time phillip mena >> good morning, brian we start with president biden who is traveling to new jersey today. he will survey the damage left behind by ida. mr. biden will visit queens, new
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york for many in the northeast, this labor day, included clean up down in louisiana, entergy reports 500,000 people had power restored as you mentioned, the world mourning the loss of michael k. williams he starred as the stick-up man on "the wire." the fivefive-time emmy nominee s found dead on monday afternoon in his apartment michael k. williams was just 54 years old. the average watch time per user on the app tiktok has officially surpassed the watch time of youtube users. this is true in the u.s. and uk. youtube still holds the top spot for overall time watching. makes sense. it has more users.
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youtube has 2 billion monthly users and tiktok from mid 2020 was about 700 million. brian, back to you >> some big numbers there. a lot of people watching the amazing work that michael k. williams did "the wire" was an the best show of all time. he is up with his brother in the alley. he said you might miss he said at this range with this caliber, if i miss, i can't miss michael k. williams. >> triconic >> thank you phillip mena, anthk you. we'll take a break we'll be right back with more on "worldwide exchange" after this. worth is knowing it's never too late to start - or too early.
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football is back and i'm back hi i'm brian sullivan well welcome to "worldwide exchange." we kickoff our trading week. see if the record-breaking rally will roll on and eh, honestly, i don't know no way to know futures are down a couple of bucks. they were up a couple bucks earlier. i m mplied value on the nasdaq it is a holiday short week a lot of wall street is still off. rosh hashanah today. it will be maybe a lower volume. higher volatility week in some ways i would not expect massive moves unless we get some huge event. there is potential good news you know the stats
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september is the worst month of the year on average for stocks going back to 1929 generally, it posts a small loss that might not be the case this year fun stretch shows the s&p 500 rises more than 10% in the months leading up to september, as we have done this year, september actually tends to be sga good month histo historically, not this great, but this with gain, pretty great. your guess. back to the markets in a moment some of the other top stories with contessa brewer is back with those contessa >> brian, good morning goldman sachs cutting the growth forecast a new note from the bank sees overall expansion at 5.7%. that is down from the 6% last month. it points to a harder path ahead for the american consumer than
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previously anticipated with spending likely to drop due to covid and scaled back fiscal support. weaker growth will be followed by the increase in pick up next year. nvidia is facing fresh opposition from oversea regulators over the bid to buy the uk arm ment cthe concessions don't go far enough the ft says it comes as nvidia is filing for regulatory clearance in brussels. the nfl and football fans are gearing up for the kickoff we got a new survey from the gaming association it shows the increase in the number of people planning to bet this season. up 36% from last year. the aga says of the 101 million
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people who now legally can place a bet in their home states, a little more than 45 million plan to in large part because more states have allowed legal gambling more on the betting season to come late ther this morning on "squawk box. a lot of people checking out to see if the apps are running. >> i never asked you, contessa do you have an nfl team? are you buffalo bills because you are kind of up there a packers fan? i never asked you. this is an important question in our friendship >> this is really big. i'm glad to announce it on "worldwide exchange. i'm a supporter of the green bay packers. once you live in wisconsin, you get inducted and never leave >> i know this is why we get
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along. >> yeah. >> i like it >> football. >> many other reasons. you are awesome. i, myself, am a woe-be-gone los angeles, san antonio charger fan wherever they end up contes contessa, thank you. >> have a good morning >> you, too, contessa. let's turn to the markets and bring in our friend jeff kilburg. previous player on the notre dame team. jeff, welcome back in. you heard my stat from fun strat that showed we got september stinks unless we're up big coming into september. then it is a big month does stuff like that matter?
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>> it does, matter, sully. i have expectations for a supsuper september. that is in the wake of the fact of the jobs number last friday really disappoint. we missed by 500,000 jobs. that allows the federal reserve to press pause we were all expecting powell to talk about taper in september. it is not happening anymore. that will be the paramount focus. not on the light calendar week, but the month of september until we bridge to october with earnings season. super september. here we are, sully >> wow i asked this earlier our first guest of the program i said does it matter? long term and if the fed tapers in november, december or january. what are you thinking? >> longer term absolutely not they reduce the emergency
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purchase of $120 billion down to $100 billion the context that we look for is the uncertainty. everyone is second guessing powell when you see the number like last friday with that uncertainty, that is amplified they have plenty to be covered the one thing we focus on is jobs the dual mandate that the federal reserve has is inflation. they changed and moved the goal post they have to be certain on jobs. that's why i think this accommodating stance from powell continues and the taper doesn't taper down or reduce the payments until january of 2022 >> okay. i know you and i talk and text i have notes and read the notes. you are rolling back on oil exposures. chevron and conoco phillips. why are you dumping on the oil stocks >> it is an opportunity to
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reb rebound. you are seeing weakness from relative strength. to be tactical going into the month, we are reducing oil exposure it is great to hop on oil, but now it is the time to turn it down we added semiconductors. we certainly look at intel and amd. some of the names with more opportunity going into september. it is important to understand the sectors you have exposure to and sully, what areas not to have exposure to that is our position for the month of september. >> what is so attractive about the semiconductors right now >> a lot of relative strength. we are looking for momentum. we see the s&p 500 up 20% year to date. it is a technical approach, sully. this is not a fundamental. this is a technical approach that we see strength on the charts >> if you made money in oil and stocks, sell those
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buy semiconductors jeff, before we let you go, we want to get you in on the morning's rbi. >> i saw that. >> something you care about. college football return of fans to the stands a lot of fans. my virginia tech kicked off with a win over usc rocking sanmandman from the sta. saturday was bigger. nearly every major stadium from florida to california sold out the biggest game of all? literally? was the university of michigan attendance of 109,000 people at the big house. jeff, your alma mater notre dame squeaked out a win against florida state sunday night another packed house millions of fans came back after mostly two-year layoff
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wait until the nfl kicks off this weekend i know your nephew actually played in the michigan and western michigan game. your take? i know a lot of people are screaming about it and up in arms most of the schools have vaccine man mandates what is your take? >> first of all, enthusiasm. you can have an approach to what we are looking at. i'll resolve and let dr. anthony fauci and gottleib oppine on that i think we are returning in a safe manner. we lacked normalcy for a long time the college kids not playing football, this is normalcy these weekend bring them together i'm all in favor i hope we are doing it in a safe way. nonetheless, welcome back college football super september. here we are. >> we have seen outdoor music
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festivals which have not generated a lot of spread or shutdown you have mostly vaccinated people outside let's hope this is the case. for one weekend, jeff, wasn't it marvelous? watching "sandman" for the hokies jeff, thank you. >> thank you, sully. all right. coming up, amid the scary headlines out there, we have good news to bring you in the fight against covid. here is a hint it is all about vaccination rates. we're ckft ts orba aerhisht break. hey, son! no dad, it's a video call. you got to move the phone in front of you like..like it's a mirror, dad. you know? alright, okay. how's that? is that how you hold a mirror? [ding] power e*trade gives you an award-winning mobile app with powerful, easy-to-use tools and interactive charts to give you an edge, 24/7 support when you need it the most and $0 commissions
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better hearing has never been this easy. try lively risk free for 100 days. visit listenlively.com welcome back to "worldwide exchange." there are a lot of scary headlines of covid outbreaks in america right now, but there is optimistic news. vaccination rates across america are surging again. in fact, the vax rate is double from the july lows according to the cdc, 75% over 18 have gotten one dose. 73% of the population 12 years and older have been jabbed at least once we have more than 1 million vaccinations per day when we were down to 500,000 on the lows of july. on the daily average, we have doubled. you hear about breakthrough
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cases and the cdc, for some reason, doesn't public vaccination status and covid hos hos hospitalizations, leaving everyone to guess. michigan's rate is .005% you hear about breakthrough cases. it is one month of data. .005%. something to watch vaccines appear to be doing their jobs. turning to the world of crypto el salvador is the first country to make bitcoin a legal currency as of today. bitcoin and ethereum with the all-time highs as well it seems to have momentum.
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let's bring in noelle. first off, what changed? they were hot and then ice cold. then they fire back up again what is behind the six-week resurgence in the crypto >> good morning, brian in terms of the going hot and cold and hot, welcome to our world. nothing i say is investment advice it is never a dull day in crypto you mentioned el salvador. an interesting development not one we expect to see a big impact in the markets. they announced a significant purchase of bitcoin over the weekend. over $20 million that is a drop in the ocean of the market which trades billions daily. the main significance of the el salvador development, the government is offering its citizens choice.
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that is what cryptocurrency is about. the first time in history, we can offer people a choice in monetary industrument they use. moving on to the all-time highs. we have bitcoin above $50,000. both are important we are seeing weakness today the momentum and data hint the previous highs could be breached in the cycle >> what specifically are we seeing that might indicate that, noell snerks. >> looking at bitcoin to start with compared to the last run up we see accumulation metrics are stronger acti ak active ty metrics are higher. technology progress is driving
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the ethereum momentum. august upgrade introduced the tokens through fees. a couple of days ago, brian, we saw the first day with negative net issues you have increase in demand and decline of supply over time. that is creating some significant momentum even keeping with the technology theme. last week, we saw the launch of the scale solution for ethereum. the layer two which is based on ethereum and offer a meaningful impact in the users experience in applications. we will see more of that this year that is going to drive more adoption to the application that ethereum is offering >> bullish look now. a lot of momentum behind these i need your help, noelle tv anchors like to think they know everything. i don't understand the nft boom.
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i understand the basics of a non-fungible token i don't understand why someone is paying tens of billions of dollars for a fat penguin or bored ape. >> it is an exciting development, brian i would not say you are missing anything we are starting to see the potential of the industry. it does require a change in mind set. let's cast back. art collecting has been around for centuries. it has been part of the culture for decades. i don't know if you collected baseball cards when you were younger. my kids collect pokemon cards. we live in the digital world the younger generation did this started before the pandemic the pandemic consolidated it
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our digital lives will not go away with our reopening. we are now able to carry on our collecting active which is part of the way we express ourselves into the digital world here is the interesting thing. what we are doing by porting our collectibles to the digital world is transforming from the risk of fire or flood or stolen from you or decay. we are protecting them digitally. >> i think ready player one. walking through the metaverse and looking at a museum with digital art. >> absolutely. decentralizing >> decentralized new world el salvador. thank you. it's coming.
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noelle, thank you. >> thank you on deck, when the algo's speak, jon najarian listens. if you haven't done so by now, follow us at "worldwide exchange." ory if you need it sooner but at a time like this, aren't you glad you can also just swing by to pick it up? and get your questions answered. because peace of mind is something you just can't get in a cardboard box. that's healthier made easier. at cvs.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." investors gearing to kick off the post-holiday weekend we have the holiday and rosh hashanah today your next guest is the guy who knows from which he speaks he has three stocks getting a lot of attention he is jon najarian he is a cnbc contributor jon, before we get to the names, i want people to watch and be tuned in to cnbc is this a writeoff or do you
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expect action with labor day and rosh hashanah today? what is your macro view the next few days >> brian, i think, you know post-jobs report, we will see more speculative buying because they pushed off into the future the time the fed will actually move i don't think they will move at the september 22nd meeting, brian. those thinking they might will be, you know, moving positions and so forth overall, i think it will be a slightly bullish tone after we get through the dullness of the first couple days, as you said rosh hashanah and sell rosh hashanah and buy yom kippur. we will see if that plays out this year. i don't think so >> we have a long month of september and historic numbers while tend to be negative as tom pointed out with the momentum, they tend to be positive speaking of momentum
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let's dive in. bath and body works. we know their stores the hottest equities in the united states. bath and body works is the second best performing s&p 500 stock this year. you are seeing activity? >> this used to be known as l brands spun out and doubled on the year that kind of performance is eye catching friday, on the day when all there's of the stocks saw unusual activity on friday and into a holiday weekend i like to pay attention to that. november, 65 calls the stock trading at about that level. 64.75. they are buying the 65 calls they are buying something october, november. two full months out and a few spare days in there. that's the trade we like to follow they bought about 8,000 of
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these. that's 800,000 equal bath & body works looks like somebody is playing. these will capture the next earnings report. >> the next is a small cap stock. $610 million market cap. it is above 500 million. the company trying to change auto insurance to pay for how far you drive. not a flat fee ticker is mile what do you see? >> this is a big speculative number, brian. 2.2 million share equal and the stock was under $5 it was trading in the 4.60 area. they stepped up and bought 22,000 of the 750 calls. that is a big jump between now and october because these are october expiration options
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of course, when we see something that big and that far out, brian, i want to ride along. i bought the 5, not the 7.5 calls. i want to be closer to the money when i participate in the trades. >> we don't have enough time for the other one. jon, great stuff on metro mile and bath & body works. have a great day >> thank you. that goes by quick that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. to kickoff your trading week futures are basically flat we'll see you tomorrow "squawk box" is next
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good morning bitcoin surging past $52,000 over the weekend el salvador is the first country to officially adopt it as legal currency. ryanair walks away over the order with boeing. and a big win for marvel at the box office the latest superhero movie breaking records over the labor day weekend. it is tuesday, september 7th, 2021 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin and joe kernen and melissa lee becky is off today
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