dedecision of "fast money. jim cramer has the night off tonight is back to business. labor day has come and gone. the summer is over and it's traditionally the time when americans returning from vacations, kids go back to school as with everything else, the pandemic has changed what it ne needs to get back to business. we will tackle that topic tonight. first, how the market performance post-labor day as wall streeters return and how this year it will be different next, the debate over mandates

in the office with the ceo of cushman and wakefield. plus, enhanced unemployment benefits ended and the august jobs report whiffed. ziprecruiter weighs in what's next for retail now that back to school is all but over the former head of saks fifth avenue gives us his take and travel, and if the profitable business class will ever make a full recovery. the major averages mixed today remained near record highs september has been the weakest month of the year historically bob pisani with more on what to expect in the post-summer period bob, what do you say, wake me up when september ends? >> no, hopefully, not. september, you're right, traditionally the weakest month of the year, but tradition doesn't mean too much in the post-covid-19 world. the three most important market movers are flashing positive signals. first earnings growth for the

third and the fourth quarter is still accelerating second, profit margins are still at record highs, 13% for the s&p 500. that's a record. and finally, interest rates remain low, though they have been rising recently record earnings and record margins leave the markets very vulnerable, so the risks are a significant growth slowdown due to the delta variant second, big risk, a profit march decline due to higher wage and material costs finally, the worry that this could combine to cause earnings to decelerate. who would win and lose if the reopening story faltered the market is betting earnings growth will remain strong in growth sectors like technology, health care and communication services even if there is a slowdown, but nor cyclical sectors like strooels and consumer discretionary may already be are slowing down. the indication it is, at least in prices.

the market believes big tech is a winner tech will win. the s&p 500 up 5% this quarter four of the five biggest names in the s&p 500 all tech megacaps have outperformed the s&p by twice that amount. the loan laggard, zblamazon on tear recently. >> thank you very much we will be following you for the market for what happens in the month of september what should your market playbook look like as we head into the fall to break it down, co-founder, paul hickey and lindsey bell thank you both for joining us tonight. paul, starting with you, i know you are our trends guy-. you look at things historically and what you are seeing currently, so what do you buy into with bob's thesis do you think this year is unlikely any other will it be like years past where september is not as good of a month as some others surrounding

it >> yeah, so, thanks for having me on. one of the things that -- makes us positive on the market, tail wind for the market is seasonality. when people hear tailwind for the market in september and seasonality, they give us a cooked look. but when you look historically september is one the weaker months of the year but when you have seen the s&p 500 up 10% or more year to date september returns have actually been positive historically and better than the average long-term performance which is a decline. take that a step further, we haven't had a draw down of 5% this year. five otheryears throughout history where we have seen the s&p 500 up 10% year to date and not a single drawdown of 5% or more in those five years, the rest of year return from september 1st through year end was an average of 5% and higher every single time so it's a small sample size of five, but in the markets and when it comes to seasonality,

newton's first law applies strength begets strengths, objects in motion tend to stay in motion. >> that makes sense. lindsey, what do you think does strength beget strength with the big megacap tech names that bob ended his report with, the alphabet, facebook, all of the big ones that we know so well is that going to continue to be a winner for portfolios through the rest of the year >> yeah, i have my eye on technology because as we have seen throughout the year it's been this continuous rotation between cyclicals and growth and defensive. with the support helping to move the market higher throughout the entire year, with different groups leading at different times, of course, technology nowadays is about 30% almost of the s&p 500. if you can believe it. and so it's an important part of the index for certain, but i am looking at technology. it's had a really nice run, especially since the tenure-yea

has been declining since march, the tech sector continuously moving higher as yields came down now a turnaround in the ten-year yield moving a little bit higher, which gives me hope and optimism that the market can continue to move higher and things -- the growth story can come back to life and technology as we know has been a -- more of a defensive play in the last year, year and a half in this market so what we're seeing within the technology sectors, a lot of people have put a lot of money into the sector, especially in the last couple of months. in fact, we are starting to see flows reach levels that we saw in the early part of the pandemic so the sector, said another way, is getting a little bit stretched. if you look at the relative strength index, it's definitely an overbought territory. the index remains expensive versus its own history in the s&p 500 for the last year so or

so we think it could take a little bit of a breather and allow some of those cyclical sectors to take over if we get to see the reopening story re-emerge. >> you know, paul, we started the show talking about how the markets were a little bit mixed today, but one thing that was decidedly the downside was cryptocurrency the price of bitcoin tumbling about 10%. same thing with ether, down sharply. el salvador started adopting this as an official digital currency, not such a great first day there. what do you make of the moves in bitcoin? is this just going to be the piece of our future? we just need to get used to this volatility and should it be something that everyone should have in their portfolio or are we not there yet >> i think the volatility today, these cryptocurrencies you see a lot more volatility than any other asset class. so if you are going to invest in the space, be prepared for that. i wouldn't read too much into

today in what happened in crypto, what happened in the market or anything because there was literally zero news flow today. anything happening in the market was just, you know, the market, you know, weak liquidity in the market here. historically, after a three-day weekend people are foggy and the market wags foggy, too this the fifth post-labor day we have seen the s&p 500 decline after the labor day weekend. so you tend to see weakness in the short term i wouldn't read too much into it at all at this point and for people who are more willing to have a little risk in their portfolio, some of these cryptocurrencies is some of the more well established ones are a viable option. but every investor is different and it depends on what their risk profiles are and how much risk tolerance they have >> fair enough well, lindsey, i know you are watching tech, watching the yield on the ten-year.

as we go into the last four months of the year, besides those two things, do you have a good idea for our audience to really hone in on here and why this year may or may not be different because of this pandemic that we continue to deal with? >> i think in the near term we will see a little more volatility september is a more volatility month. historically the weakest performing of the year as you started this segment off with, that paul had some great statistics around momentum going into this period but set aside, we have some things coming from the government that could shake things up a little bit obviously, the fiscal policy picture is a concern we will hear the government debate that infrastructure bill, the budget's coming due, and then the debt ceiling, too so there is a lot of things that can add volatility to the marketplace, although i am hopeful we get into the final three months of the year and historically strong period of the year does set in -- does set into swing

i will say consumer is one thing we are looking forward to as well we are in a wait-and-see mode here we have seen some disappointing data, not the least of which was friday's jobs report be a little disappointing around the consumer, but the reality is fiscally they are in a much better position today than they were going into this pandemic and going into the holiday season, there is a significant amount of pentup demand. we remain optimistic there i believe you will continue to see these companies come in, beat earnings expectations and estimates continue to move higher, which is not the usual trend as we talked about many, many times before. >> yeah, that's a good tease we will take a deeper look at the consumer later in the show thank you, paul and lindsey, for being here with us this evening. one area ever the market that is expected to break records this fall, ipos. it's been the busiestier for ipos difference 2000 and the crush of new offerings is likely to continue. with 90 to 110 ipos expected the

next four months according to renaissance capital. car by parker, all birds and sweet green among them how to approach this is anne berry, the chief investment officer at wheelhouse. great to see you tonight if it is going to be cutch an active calendar for ipos, what is important for investors to pay attention to we have had a lot of iraqi starts for big-name ipos already this year. >> exactly right i think it's looking very carefully at the fundamentals which is something we moved away from in the market we have to come back to it but i look at some of the names that were flashed at the beginning war by parker was one of them. all birds was another. looking very carefully at repeat rates, war by parker fantastic customer retention, high repeat purchases on that site all birds, look at those two, which are both at the moment

fairly single product offings and compare them with the successes in the past and also some of the failures castle for example was a disastrous ipo and it's been a disastrous plilk stock since it went public. comparing against real data points out there is going to be critical as investors think about stories for the long run, what is a -- just very inflated valuation in the publicmarket nr some of these names. >> spacs was hot earlier this year, direct listings started picking up steam as they moved away from more traditional ipo listings to go public. what should we pay attention to when it comes to the structure of some of these deals coming to marketplace? >> when it comes to direct listing i think there are certain to watch out there isn't necessarily the same level of underwriting taking place when you have banks out there managing the listing process. a lot of scrut fi when it comes to governance. war by parker, prafrm, enormous

control that sits with the founders and so the nature of these is important when we think about what level of diligence has been done on behalf of the retail investor that's a real question for the spacs as well. but there is one other piece to look out, too, and not enough attention has been paid to this, which is what are the valuations that these businesses have raised money at and the private market from investors who have been following them with lot of information for a very long time and then how much of a premium are these companies asking for kbh they go public and can those big premiums be justified based on the time that elapsed between their last private raise and the time they are ipo'd. >> we have been talking about war by parker, like all birds, but what about a company like stripe it's looking to go public potentially in hot fintech space. so valuation is probably something we should pay close attention to in one of these tech names, right? >> i think that's exactly right.

trike is a prime candidate that is one where there have been rumors of anywhere between $95 billion, which i think is a valuation, the secondary market relatively recently. another one sweet green, which raised capital under $2 billion, whispers of testing the water conversations later this month and a $3 billion valuation another one is ribbian they raised capital under a $30 billion valuation earlier this year. rumors are it's going to go public $80 billion seven months later and it's those disconnects i am looking at to see if the public market can justify when the private market didn't buy into as a valuation benchmark. >> big numbers and some good warnings for investors as we look to these companies going public soon in the rest. year thank you very much for joining us here this evening and we are just getting started. after the break, goldman sachs's vaccine mandate takes effect

today and companies are wres bling with difficult questions about masks, vaccines and testing as firms delay the return to the office the ceo of cushman and wakefield joins us to weigh in on the mandate debate

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edition of "fast money." vaccine mandates are top of mind for companies looking to get employees back in the workplace. starting today goldman sachs is requiring vaccinations for all employees, clients or visitors to any of its offices and several other high-profile companies arecome up with nove ways to get employees vaccinated delta air lines said any unvaccinated employee will have their insurance premiums raised

by two hundred dollars a month starting this november alaska airlines is giving employees a $200 bonus for getting the shot meantime, mcdonald's, google, and united airlines join the growing list of companies requiring the jab. labor day was supposed to be the unofficial return to work, but with the delta variant wreaking havoc on the reopening, many businesses are pushing back their plans. lyft, apple, charles schwab, facebook and amazon postponing their return to the office some until early next year so from delays to vaccine mandates, what does the return to office look like as we head into the fall? let's bring in bret white, executive chairman and ceo of congressional real estate giant cushman & wakefield. wonderful to have you join us here today first and foremost, what are the majority of your clients, your tenants doing when it comes to vaccine mandates or testing or mask requirements? is there something that almost everyone is adopting >> thanks, courtney.

first of all, this is such a very fluid situation right now and changing so very quickly just a month ago i don't know if there were any companies that had mandated vaccines for their employees. as we sit here today, it seems that dozens every day are doing so so i'd say the common dynamics we are seeing out there would first be everyone agrees there are three factors to facilitate return to office first is infections need to go down and stay down the second is we have to have line of sight to herd immunity the third is we have to get school back in session as 24 million households in the united states have children under 12 years old. so look at the first factor here, how do we get infections down and keep them down, the vaccine is the simplest path to get there. most companies are either strongly encouraging their employees to get vaccines or requiring them to get vaccines, and most companies that are requiring vaccines have a carve out, which is if you don't want to get a vaccine, then you must

test to come into the office i would say those two factors are becoming very, very common across corporate america. >> and it sounds like you are determining or letting the determination be made by your tenants, you are not issuing any types of mandates for your properties is that correct? >> that's correct. that's up to the tenants themselves to mandate. there are buildings, it would not be an anomaly to say buildings that require all the vendors in the buildings to have been vaccinated. our folks who operate -- [ inaudible ] many owners require that but for our 60,000 employees and for many, many large corporates we work with, the idea that either you're vaccinated or you get tested is more the rule than the anomaly. >> lastly, i think everyone is so curious about what commercial space looks like the supply, the demand i could actually see an argument

for both ways. i could see tenants wanting or need are more space to spread employees out then i could see the opposite where more employees are staying home or maybe it's 50/50 and you don't need individual desks for every employee what is your outlook for what commercial office space will look like going forward? >> great question. let me give you a couple of data points on vacancies and rent, we believe that vacancies will peak second quarter of 2022 at 18% for u.s. office stock. we believe rents, which are now town 10% to 15% across the board will stay there to to the first quarter of 2023 and rise the inflection point next year on office space. here are the things that lead us to believe there will be good support for office space in the mid and long-term. three. the first is the office job recovery is stunning we lost 2.3 million jobs between

april and may of last year we have recovered almost all of those back second and very important to us, tenants are seeing space, touring space 80% more than they were a year ago and the third is that those tenants that are writing leases now are writing them for normal lease terms. in other words, last year tenants were kicking the can down the road, a one or two-year lease. today we are seeing traditional 2019, pre-2019 lease terms of somewhere between seven and ten years. so those things tell us that major corporates, although they haven't decided whether they are going to be full hybrid, partially hybrid, rotating shifts, they have concluded that whatever they -- [ inaudible ] on a square footage they required pre-pandemic. >> bret white, ceo of cushman & wakefield. thank you very much for joining us here tonight. well, up next, back to the

gridiron football season officially kicks off this week. that could be a major score for casinos and online betting sites. we will get you up to speed on the key players in the space next

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football gets back to business this week as the nfl begins its regular season thursday on nbc and casinos and online betting sites are looking to cash in contessa brower has the playbook for this year's nfl betting season >> nfl football kicks off thursday as more states permit sports betting, 101 million americans can legally place a wager where they live and nearly half, 45.2 million, plan to according to a new survey from the american gaming association. that's up 36% this year versus

last 23 states and washington, d.c., have launched sports betting five more than last year and nine other states have moved to legalize it 19.5 19.5 million people will bet online and not all of those will be legal bets. it's up 73% from 2020. who are the leaders in this crowded space? jeffreys analyst david katz says draftkings and fanduel on top for platformies of use caesars plans to spend big bucks marketing the app and rebranding the business it bought betmgm is now second for market. and canada's biggest sports content provider the score wynn entered the race, balis, churchill downs, points bet, fubo tv and tribal gaming all out to stakeout their own territory. and gone are the days when the nfl fought legalized sports betting. now it has gambling partners in

arizona, the cardinals have their own gaming license and they are partnering with betmgm. that state is expected to launch sports betting any day now as is washington state and south dakota courtney. >> everybody wants a piece of that pie thank you. >> be sure to catch the nfl kickoff on thursday on nbc when the treasury yield buccaneers take on the dallas cowboys coverage starts at 7:00 p.m. eastern time meantime, the sporting goo retailers have been on fire. dick's sporting goods up 150% year to date and 30% in the past month. the ceo saying on the most recent earnings call that the return of team sports and the back-to-school season helped drive a blowout quarter. competitors hibbett and big five also knocking it out of the park this year with outsized returns. after the break, getting back to business is a lot harder in a tight labor market we will talk about the challenges facing companies and

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welcome back millions of americans saw their expanded pandemic unemployment benefits end over the weekend. rachelle solomon has that story for us. >> it's been a year and a half since the start of these fiercely debated federal benefits let's look how we got here in march of 2020 congress passed the c.a.r.e.s. act that added $600 weekly on top of state unemployment benefits. that expired in july

then in january of 2021 it was partially reinstated with an extra $300 weekly, but as states reopened business owners started to complain they couldn't find workers and some studies did show that many on unemployment were making the same or more staying home so the summer 26 states, largely republican, began opting out of the benefits early, which brings us to today when the benefit expires for all states according to the progressive think tank the century foundation this means 7.5 million people will lose benefits entirely, including gig workers, the self-employed and those who wouldn't traditionally qualify for unemployment and another 3 million people will see their benefits reduced some say it's long overdue the chamber of commerce telling me today these benefits expiring should have happened sooner and employers have had a terrible time finding workers as they competed with generous government benefits. unclear if many people returning

to work because a recent study looked at the states that ended early and those states saw a modest increase in employment and some argue losing the benefit won't just hurt those who need it. projecting that the immediate impact of the expiration of benefits will drain $5 billion in spending from the economy each week. goldman sachs put out a note yesterday echoing concerns about consumer spending without fiscal benefits and also that unemployed workers generally lack significant savings and that to offset the loss of benefits, consumer spending will shrink substantially courtney. >> very interesting rahel. i know this is fiercely debated and often falls along party lines. but what happens now i mean, what's next for some of these workers or for the government that may be looking at what the impact >> i think for workers it's important to note that their states can use the relief funds

to reinstate the $300 weekly benefit. president biden said so repeatedly unclear if any states will do that i think it will be interesting to see -- i know, you know, for the next jobs reports, people will be looking to see if there are any indications of this sort of leading to massive returns to work unclear. it will probably take a couple of jobs reports to see any impact, if any >> very interesting stuff rahel. i find this fascinating what's going on in the labor force in general. we are going to continue the employment conversation with ian siegel, the ceo and co-founder of job search engine ziprecruiter thank you so much for being here with us. you heard rahel's report there we may need a little bit more time to see what the immediate impact is of these extra benefits, these sweeteners, the stimulus ending. in general, what are you seeing from job searchers, job candidates as well as those people that are looking to fill these positions on ziprecruiter? how do you explain sort of the

mismatch that we're seeing between the job openings, but also what's going on in employment and unemployment? >> well, the job market is fascinating right now because what's very clear is that employers have a high demand for talent and yet job seekers remain reluctant to yourreturn the work force the theory were there were multiple factors holding them back, the first their kids were in an online school or summer vacation now that kids are back in school, they were waiting for the vaccines to be widespread. now those vaccinations are out there. or they were waiting for the stimulus to run out. now their stimulus has run out, and yet in spite of all that job seekers continue to remain reluctant. part could be there was a fourfold increase in the number of delta variant cases reported from july to august. multiple hospital reporting that they had reached capacity. i think fear of the virus is prevalent. however, i don't think it fully explains what's going on. >> obviously, vaccinations are

available now. they were not initially when all of this began. so that's just another factor that may help take some of the fear away. but like you said, there is still something going on under the surface. we had this jobs report on friday that came in well below what economists were expecting what is everybody saying for the explanation to that? >> well, you look at the jobs report the last two months and in july you added over 1 million jobs and then folall to 230,000o so in august and some of it is explainable by the delta variant. but some is, even when compelled to go back to work, there are two things that are true about job seekers right now. number one, they have larger nest eggs squirrelled away than they have ever had in most of their lives. they actually have a fairly long off-ramp from this stimulated protected period where they were advantaged and didn't have to look for work. we think over the next quarter we will see a slow return to

normal amongst job seeker activity i think the the delta variant is influencing these people's decisions. there is a lot of fear in every survey that we do about the delta and overall covid experience and in particular jobs where you have to interact with the public on a regular basis. those are the ones that are struggling for talent the most. >> you know, we have seen a lot of interesting incentives that different businesses are offering to try to recruit workers from one-time bonuses to other benefits, health care, medical that maybe they wouldn't have offered previously. what else can a business do to try to attract the right candidate for them right now in the labor market that we're all participating in >> well, let me just say businesses are doing their part. they are fighting tooth and nail to bring talent in they are raising wages they are increasing benefits they are offering flexible schedules. they are reducing requirements for employment if you look at the number of

jobs that list a college degree being required, it's down 50% from a few years ago so employers are definitely doing everything in their toolkit to try to attractle talent there is something larger and more systemic going on that is causing job seekers to be hesitant. >> what are you seeing when it comes to the wage increases, and do you think that that's here to stay aor is in just an increase temporarily to try to find workers to fill these jobs. >> there is extraordinary signing bonus. those are clearly a post-covid-19 reality that will likely go away wage increases, we participated in a grand social experiment the last year and a half and the many conclusion was that job seekers preferred flexible work or remote work that. will make it a challenge for workers. so i think you are going to see

permanent changes to wages as employers continue to fight for talent even as we get into a more normal job market >> this just continues to fascinate me what's going on in the labor market ian siegel, ceo of ziprecruiter, thank you for joining us and come back when you have answers to where all those workers went. after the break, back-to-school season is behind us for the most part so what's the next catalyst for retail we'll ask former goldman sachs ceo next. and on "the news with shepard smith," president biden surveys storm damage in the northeast. california gears up for a recall election, and inside el salvador's bitcoin experiment. that's at the top of the hour right here on cnbc stay with us

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back to the office, but retailers are still hoping consumers will want to refresh their ward robes and more and it appears americans are flush with cash the st. louis fed finding spikes in the personal savings rate during the pandemic. plus the latest jobs report showed average hourly earnings jumped 0.6%, double wall street estimates. but covid cases are surging and there is concern they will drive consumers to tighten their purse strings. today goldman sachs downgrading its u.s. economic outlook on delta headwinds and the consumer impact of pandemic aid measures ending as we just discussed. a former department store ceo suggests it's premature to presume retail will see a blow a senior advisor to mastercard,

steve, thank you so much for joining us here today. you know, i know that august was pretty strong by mastercard's num numbers. back-to-school has been pretty g good as well is this something that is a new trend or is this just a natural replenishment for school supplies after a wacky 2019 and 2020, or is this real consumer strength >> well, good speaking with you. i think we are seeing some really, really good consumer strength out there if you look at the mastercard spending numbers for august, the ex-autumn was growing at 10% after continuing to see that similar kind of growth in the june/july period so back to school is very healthy. the consumer has money in their pocket and i don't think it's just a replenishment you have clearly had the recovery category, apparel, department stores, luxury, jewelry, or just performing really well. if you had told pethat department stores were going to

be growing 19% versus two years ago, i would have said that's really out of -- not in the cards. and it's more than just a getting, you know, low base of a year ago the consumer really is looking to get back out and shop again >> now that we have the end to theseextra sweeteners for the unemployment benefits officially over now, what to you make of how that will impact discretionary spending do you think folks took those stimulus checks and bought that apparel and that's why we saw the bump, or do you really think it's those of us wanting to get out of our yoga pants once and for all and buy some real pants? >> i think it's a combination of all of them. you clearly have been swewearin sweatpants for the last year and a half and you want newness. fashion, excitement, sexy is selling. and that is showing that in the parl numbers but it's beyond that people are going to restaurants. the luxury, the jewelry sectors

are just killing it. luxury we're seeing growth of -- in the neighborhood of doubling versus a year ago. and even up 35, 40% versus two years ago. jewelry is performing well so people want to express themselves so i think that you have a lot of categories that are showing enormous growth. luxury is tied to the stock market now, when i was running 737 max sacks /* goldman sachs we said there is a -- and that's playing out right now. so in the lower end of the market, consumer has the dollars they have been saving. so we are in a for a very healthy consumer demand period certainly over the holiday period there are a lot of headwinds the labor market, supply chain, things that we are talking about, and that's going to lead to scarcity. the inventories are in line. so i think that margins are going to be very strong over the next period of time. and i am concerned about some of

the cost pressures that you are seeing. >> yeah, stephen, i think that's important to touch on here before we go, this supply chain is really still very congested, which started when covid really kicked up and began in china it's only gotten worse as demand has gotten higher. and i don't know if everyone realizes that at home, but we may be looking at inventory shortages for the holiday season, maybe already right now, and also higher prices because it's taking longer and costing more to bring those goods over from asia in particular. are you worried about the holiday season and what that could mean for australia retailers? >> no, i am not worried about the holiday season you're right there is going to be shortages of inventory that means less promotions and probably better full-price selling. there will be shortages of some of the key items that people want to have and that means they better find them early or they are not going to be around but i feel that you are going to have a lot of cost pressures, weather get the product to the

shelves or labor you had great segments on labor. these costs aren't going to go down in the near term. and so i think that i'm a little bit more concerned as you think about when is the supply chain going to get fixed it's not going to happen this holiday season my guess is it wasn't happen until the second quarter of next year as we go into next year, retailers are going to have very difficult planning relative to how much pricing that they want to take and whether or not the -- right now the consumer is absorbing some higher pricing. you are already sewing it in terms of price action. >> absolutely. you bring up some good points. the consumer is absorbing the higher pris proos, labor is costing more, costing more to bring the goods in we should watch to see what happens in the future because inflation in these categories may not be so transitory as the fed keeps telling us you will help us watch it. thank you very much for joining us here tonight. coming up next, checking in on business class. the tsa saw a big spike in

travelers over the labor day weekend but will the highly roft profitable business class segment make a full comeback we will discuss whether this special edition of "fast money" returns. new customers get our best deals on all smartphones. that's right. but what if i'm already a customer? oh, no problem. hey, cam...? ah, same deal! yeah, it's kind of our thing. huh, that's a great deal... what if i'm new to at&t? cam, can you...? hey... but what about for existing customers? same deal. it's the same deal. is he ok? it's not complicated. with at&t, everyone can ace back to school with our best deals on every smartphone - like the samsung galaxy z fold3 5g.

millions of americans traveled far from home over the labor day weekend soaking in the last few days of summer, and while

holiday travelers exceeded last year's numbers, the delta variant has impacted the rows and the skies this year. phil lebeau has the latest from chicago's o'hare airport hi, phil >> hi, courtney. a few of these people probably coming back from a long labor day weekend and enjoying the last bit of summer vacation, if you will if you take a look at the passenger levels, however, it is clear that the trend is not one that's favorable over on the right-hand side you see a little bit of a tick there. that's labor day weekend it was down 14% compared to 2019 but the trend is clear and many believe it will continue in september and october. we were down 21% in july compared to 2019, down 23% in august, many believe it will be down 25, 26% in september, and in october so as you take a look the airline index, this is the reason airlines are cutting capacity tore september. it's going to be down about 9% compared to august and down

about another 6% when you look at the fourth quarter. so when you look at the airline stats, this week is a pivotal one because we will be getting updated guidance at the cowan airline conference that happens on thursday. we will hear from almost all of the airlines, their cfos or other executives that day. we will find out what they are expecting in terms of revenue for the third quarter and for the fourth quarter because most people right now at this point are expecting us to be entering a bit of a lull in terms of travel blame it on covid, blame it on the fact that, you know, the people out traveling as covid -- it picked up, people say i don't want to take that trip we saw an increase canlations and slowdown in bookings. >> this is pivotal for airline stock investors to pay attention to what their stocks what the executives with those stocks are saying about not only the rest of this month, but also for the fourth quarter courtney. >> thank you very much, phil that is something we will be

watching and especially listening for on thursday. well, as we head into the fall could the travel sector be headed for a delta downturn? bryan kelly, the founder and ceo of travel site the point sky thank you so much for joining us here obviously, phil making some good points about what he is seeing in the data that he's getting. how is the delta variant impacting travel have you seen big changes? >> absolutely. just this summer i took seven of my family members to europe. it was the first time in 20 years i was able to book seven tickets in business class to go to europe. that's because business travelers simply are not flying they arer not paying full price for the tickets so the airlines are opening up seats to those with frequent flyer miles, which is good for consumers if you have that risk appetite. plenty of headwinds that the airlines are face bfrg they can get the business travel numbers up >> do you think that business travel will return and is that

key for certain cities like new york, for example? >> absolutely. it's key to airlines' growth their top-line growth happens from those expensive business class fares. let's remember europeans and brits can't even travel to the u.s. right now, even though for a short time in the summer americans have been allowed in general to travel to the eu. we have already seen because of our crazy delta variant numbers here in the u.s., we have already seen americans now have to quarantine for ten days when entering the netherlands i was there twoweeks ago and had no issue at all. as long as there is all that uncertainty around closed borders, international travel is going to be off of a cliff and those return to office plans getting pushed back, those are going to suppress business demand in addition to the cdc adding countries like jamaica to its level four list, i think there are a lot of issues facing passengers and we are going to see more and more cancellations and changes. >> it is hard to keep track of all the requirements, keep

changing based country to country, week to week, as you point out. besides those last-minute cancellations, is there a flip side are there last-minute bookings like you were able to take advantage of for your family of seven to fly overseas in business class >> absolutely. i tell people scared about the u.s. numbers, i have been in europe several times this summer vaccination rates are high hospitalization rates are low. if you are in miami today and get sick or break your leg, you will have a hard time getting a hospital room. for people who want to travel safely, go to europe and the fall is an amazing time. there is incredible frequent flyer award ticket availability. so you can burn those miles that have been accumulating your risk is much lower, especially sense in europe you walk around, eat outside i encourage travelers to think a little bit differently when assessing their actual risk when traveling. >> as you are speaking here, this brought up a new question top of mind. i don't think i have ever bought travel insurance when i have

traveled overseas or otherwise is it a smart thing to do right now with covid or what would your advice be i don't know if it would cover a covid interruption. >> the devil's in the details. most policies don't cover covid. you need to get a cancel for any reason policy which is really expensive and doesn't cover the full cost. i recommend use book using frequent flyer miles most airlines let you cancel and get your miles in cash back. you don't have to deal with weird vouchers and book refundable hotel rooms. if you are going to the bahamas. they will make you buy travel insurance in case you get covid and have stay in a hotel but a lot of hotel chains also have policies where if you test positive, they will give you a discounted or free rate. but in general the travel policies most don't cover covid. so instead just book refundable tickets and hotel rooms. >> great advice. bryan kelly, the points guy. thank you for joining us here this evening that does it for this special edition of "fast money."

thank you for watching "the news with shepard smith" starts right now more than a week later, the rolling disaster of ida and the horrors more than a thousand miles north. this is the news on cnbc destruction in the northeast >> we've got to make sure that we don't leave any community behind >> the president visits storm survivors in new york and new jersey nine days since ida struck hundreds of thousands without power in louisiana