tv Fast Money CNBC September 10, 2021 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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interview i found unbelievably moving and what an inspiration she was as with so many -- >> her story, amazing. >> other guests on the network throughout the day and indeed coming up throughout the rest of this evening on "fast money" and on shep's show at 7:00 p.m., we look forward to that ongoing coverage but we're out of time here on "closing bell. "fast money" is next live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, this is "fast money. i'm courtney reagan in tonight for melissa lee. karen fiberman, and nadine, and pete najarian, tonight on "fast. a major move in the metals market, topping the tape despite a big downgrade. how our traders are playing the breakout >> plus, a small world with big gains, how options trades are betting on disney to deliver some serious happiness to investors. and later, our chart of the
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week this stock kicking into high gear, gaining more than 15% since tuesday. that name is coming up ahead, but we'll start with an epic fall for apple the stock shedding more than $85 billion in market cap after a judge ruled against the company in its battle royal versus the maker of fortnite let's get to josh lipton for all the details that came down this afternoon. hi, josh. >> so courtney, a historic high profile antitrust fight between apple and epic, and now we do have that decision apple winning on nine of ten counts the judge saying apple is not a monopolist the court cannot ultimately conclude, the judge saying, that apple is a monopolist under federal or state antitrust laws. apple's kate adams saying we are very pleased with the court's ruling and we consider this a huge win for apple epic's tim sweeney not sounding as happy tweeting today's ruling isn't a win for developers or for consumers. it was not a total victory for apple either the judge also saying that apple
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must give developers the option to steer users to outside payment systems. now that could impact apple's app store sales which grossed an estimated 64 billion in 2020, that lot of remaining questions here for investors will apple appeal this decision, and even if this rule is imple implemented, how would consumers respond. gene munster of luke ventures bets most consumers even if given alternatives would actually stick with apple's payment system because it's simpler, easier and more convenient worst case a 4% hit to annual earnings for the first year, more likely he says a 1% hit however, this does not end challenges for the app store has been under increasing scrutiny with regulators and lawmakers taking, you know, a much harder look at this business courtney, back to you. >> yeah, well, very interesting day and i'm not sure that everyone agrees that it was a win for apple, especially if you look at the share reaction josh, thank you.
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let's trade this and get the opinions of our traders here tonight. i'm going to start with you, karen. i mean, what do you make of this ruling we saw apple shares fall josh says apple says they're happy with it. apple's not a monopoly they have to allow other options for these in app purchases are we going to gain back what apple's lost once it's digested or is this going to hurt am l in the long run, maybe 4% or more as gene munster calculates? >> we don't know exactly gene brought up the point we'll see how users end occupy purc -- up purchasing what's the mechanism anytime you have a lawsuit, there's uncertainty. so what was the market expecting? were they expecting just an absolute complete apple victory? i didn't think so. so this pullback of 3% on a day when the market was down 250, wherever it closed, isn't so
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gigantic, particularly given the run that apple's had partly saying the market is just kind of going to shrug it off. does apple appeal this probably does epic appeal the parts that they lost? i don't know i assume so, but i'm not really sure i do think, though, that the judge's words about it not being a monopoly are important, and that is a win, that threat has sort of been hanging over apple. so i think ultimately it's not going to be that big of a deal we'll see once it's implemented. sort of reminds me of gdpr in europe, and what was that going to do to google and facebook ultimately it didn't end up doing much at all. as an apple shareholder, i'm staying long >> what do you make of this? is this an opportunity to jump in and take some profits or do you agree with karen and think if you have apple in your portfolio, you hold with it
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right here >> short answer is yes, if it's in your portfolio, i definitely don't think you're getting out of the name. if we take a step back and we think about like the apple store, a big reason behind why it should get the multiple expansion that it's gotten is that it should be valued at least partially as a service company, right i do think there is some risk there. now let's talk about theoretically what may happen versus practically what is likely to happen theoretically there's these alternative methods of payment that may siphon off profitability from this service behemoth practically speaking, whenever you're dealing with a consumer facing type of business, you're definitely shedding light into what consumer behavior is. if we've seen anything from apple, whether it's people kind of like reengaging, buying new iphones, every time there's a new scycle, there is a bit of habitual nature to how people are going to interact. so practically speaking, i think that the risk is likely to be
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much more muted than the worst-case scenario that we're speaking of here so i think if you've been looking for a pullback, i think there's an opportunity for you to maybe add slightly -- i always am against like backing up the struck and buying everything in one clip, but i don't think there's reason yet for you to completely -- your position, not at all. >> what do you make of this? apple did have $64 billion in its app store revenue in 2020, so maybe this does take a bite of it. maybe not enough to be significant, or maybe it is. what do you make >> i think that bonawyn and karen are right. worst-case scenario they start cutting it down, right it's not really a rate of 30%, maybe a blended rate of 22, 23%, so the hit isn't that bad. and it's about friction. so if it's a lot of friction for a customer to do something different, they might just not do it and not care so if it's, you know, call it
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$0.80 versus a dollar for an in-game purchase, they might not change their behavior. when you look at that, and obviously it had a run up, but today we're looking at it being oversold maybe our trading range is 147 to 158 that gives me 7 1/2 odds upside versus downside, and people are paying for protections we're seeing they're paying a lot for protection i've got more upside than downside this probably isn't as bad as the headline, and i actually think it's a huge win for apple. they're saying they're not a monopoly if i'm apple, i don't think i would contest this i'd say, all right, i lost on one out of ten, i'm going home pretty happy. >> and mr. najarian, what do you make about that? i see you nodding along to what nadine said with regards to the judge's comments. >> i totally agree with what nadine was saying right there. as a matter of fact, i talked to a couple of different people, gene munster being one of them as we got all this news today, and he talked about it being noise, being very short-term in
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terms of the impact he thinks, and to the point of all three, i think that there is a comfort level, and people will stay somewhere even if it might not be at the right price, they might stay somewhere just from a comfort perspective, so the losses probably wouldn't be at that higher end. i think gene was saying 1% to 4% well, i think he'd lean more toward the 1% because of -- in terms of the losses that they would have it was a really interesting day. there's no doubt about it. this is something -- you know, let's just go back to june, though stock was 123. then it was 157 a couple of days ago. here we are, we pulled all the way back to, what, 148 so let's not get overboard this is exactly where the stock was on the run up on august 27th, two weeks ago today. so the pullback doesn't seem like a whole lot to it to me >> fair enough karen, let me throw one out there and think about who could be a beneficiary of this ruling. are there any names that might actually benefit from being able to take in some revenue from
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these in app purchases that might have previously gone to apple? is there sort of an under the radar trade we could be thinking about here >> well, not so under the radar, but i think for a name like match, right, you know, barry dealer was quite vocal about how onerous the apple charges are to be on the app store, right so to the extent that maybe there's a model for those -- that rate being reduced, it's good for them. i mean, a nucmber of ones, you know, spotify or bumble, i think, names like that that, you know, maybe their margins will improve if they're not paying so much to apple. >> okay. fair enough. nadine, i want to give you the last chance to wrap this one up here what else should we be thinking about as we watch this slide in apple that it seems like most of the traders believe is a little bit overtone because the long-term damage to apple may not be so bad after all. >> i think you can -- you know,
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if you don't have a position, you can start to enter if you have a position, you don'thave to worry i wouldn't go out buying protection right here. i think you can just stay the course we're going to learn a lot next week about fundamentally the strategy for some of their products and new product launches i just view this as we've had a bit of a weak market tech sold off, tech overall is oversold, so just stay the course, and if you want to end because you don't have a full position, it's time to add >> fair enough let's move on and check out shares of freeport, topping the tape today rising as much as 5% before closing up nearly 2 the strength does come despite a downgrade from credit suisse which cut its rating on the stock to underperform and dropped its price target to 29 bucks. the move higher helped by rising copper prices, the metal raising more than 3% let's trade it pete, what do you make of this move >> yeah, you know, it's an interesting downgrade. i think the reason that i remain bullish, i own calls, i've owned the stock. i've owned calls, and there's been a lot of call activity in
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here looking for even more upside i think when you look at the different components of what copper really is feeding into now, it's not exactly what it was obviously ten years ago or 20 years ago and the exposure that they've got right now, that copper has to the ev environment, that is something huge we talk about clean energy all the time, globally everybody's talking about the globaldemand from around all different parts of the earth now for copper i think is something that does stand out. so i remain long i continue to think that on a pullback i'd still want to be in freeport mac when you look at it, this is the biggest and baddest out there, and i think this is the company you'd want to be in so you can have that exposure as we go forward over the next couple of years. >> i think you made some trades some call activity here in fcx. >> yeah, i absolutely have as a matter of fact we've seen all kinds of different activity in different months going out into the future. i tell you what, we've seen aggressive call buying in here there's no doubt about it. that's where i am right now,
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after the run, after some of this pullback we've seen, i think right now the smarter move for me would be to be in the options. for right now i'm just in the calls. >> okay, bonawyn when you look at the copper market or freeport mac moran maybe specifically, how much do you think we can glean indications of what the economy is doing do we see that correlation right now as we have in the past, or is there some separation going on there where you don't want to read more into the price action in freeport mac moran than really some of these upgrades and downgrades moves >> well, there's definitely some correlation there, right particularly as you look at prices and inflations and outlooks for growth. and i think that that's going to be a lot more forward looking. i would say the one thing that concerns me and honestly, it makes me support pete's thesis is if you look at the run that freeport has had, this shouldn't necessarily be moving lock step
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with both inflation or growth expectations and what might be an uplift in the ev market so i think the calls make a lot more sense because it defines your risk. if you kind of look technically at where the stock has been trading. it kind of doubled topped around 45, and it's kind of been in somewhat of a down trend after bo bouncing off of that $40 level in may and early august. i think here there's much more -- i think there's much more risk to the downside, and i would define it by owning calls. with that said, i do think the stock likely finds a range i do like the ev upside there, although i think i would play it slightly different, purely speaking to base metals and purely looking at the technicals, i think calls are the way to play this only because i think in the interim, the stock has run up quite a bit. the market seems soft, and i do think we will see some short-term choppiness. >> karen, are you playing in this space at all, whether it's a copper as a base metal, whether it's the ev play or
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freeport mac moran options or the stock jooutright >> no, none of it. my only sort of commodity driven -- and they all sort of move together, they do most days, would be the oih, which is just, you know, the etf to have a wide between, you know, all parts of the e and p and services where i want to be, but i don't want to choose specifically so i just sort of -- i view it as somewhat of a punt, but i want to have energy exposure. >> got it. we're going to wrap this up there and move on because coming up is our chart of the week. this stock pedaling higher and gaining more than 15% since tuesday. that name, we gave you some clues with the name straight ahead. and later on "options rt h y cn e happiest trade o eah,owouan play disney for a big breakout, so you don't want to go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two.
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his son was on the phone when the building got hit he said son i'm being evacuated, we're going to the roof. helicopters will come and get us at that point the phone went dead he lost his life during the attack, and i will always think of him >> thanew york stock exchange trader pete tuchman remembering 9/11 as the world pauses to mark the 20th anniversary, the u.s. intelligence service says there is a new and growing threat starting to emerge eamon javers is live at the white house with more. hi, eamon. >> reporter: hi, courtney, when intelligence experts look back on september 11th, they think of it as a failure most of all of imagination. collectively they simply couldn't imagine airplanes being used in suicide attacks and todaythey worry the same failure of imagination could be happening again. this time in cybersecurity i talked to retired admiral mike rogers this week he's the former head of the super secret national security agency and he told me why he's worried. >> it's fair to say the only limit broadly in cyber these
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days is the limits of the h imagination because there's almost no limit to what you can do >> and that's why in new york the nypd and others have established a new cyber command center to watch for new threats heading to new york. >> whether it's a highly sophisticated cyber actor in an organized terrorist group or a hostile foreign power that's an actual government, you're going to see the ability to attempt to get into critical infrastructure systems that you're going to need to use in the event of an attack, whether that's from a nation stayte or a terrorist group and to disable those systems when you need them most. >> now john miller told me he worries about the possibility of terrorists uses ransomware attacks on companies to raise funds for future terrorist attacks, and it's imagining that combination of terror tactics and cyber that officials are concerned about today. back over to you, courtney
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welcome back to was "fast money. the markets closed lower on this friday, you can see down by less than a percent for all the major averages the that tech-heavy nasdaq did close down, the most down about 9/10 of a percent marking five straight down sessions for the market pete, how are you positioned setting up going into next week? we know that september is typically a bad month for the
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bulls, but of course history does not always portend what will happen in the future. still, you got to set the plate going into next week what should we know? >> absolutely. i think the one thing that really stood out for me, courtney, quite frankly is just that we finally are starting to see a little bit of rise in volatility we have not really seen a whole lot of that. yeah, we've bounced up there and immediately pulled back, but as we went through the week this week, we just consistently were getting a little bit higher, a little bit higher. today we closed just off of those highs just underneath 21 now, in the past when we've seen the volatility index get above 20, it hasn't been able to sustain that for more than a couple of days, and then it's pulled back. so this is really interesting, i think, as we set up for next week, a full week next week, and see what kind of volatility will we be able to sustain. what kind of movement are we going to continue to have? we've had some very broad from the highs to the lows and all that movement in between, and that's something that we had in the past, we hadn't seen a lot of that recently, and now we're seeing that as well.
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so i just think we have to put on our seat belts a little here. as you said, september can be a little rocky i think we've already started to set up a little bit for that rockiness. >> yeah, we've got a little more than half the month left to go, too. i think it's a good warning sign for all of us just to be ready we never know in this last year and a half, goodness sakes it is now time to reveal our chart of the week. this stock on an uphill climb, gaining more than 16% since tuesday. it is the best week of the year. it's peloton the stock jumping nearly 7% today alone in a down market, nadine, you flagged the breakout what's your take here? what's going on? >> sure, courtney, well, the stock was oversold, so just from a technical perspective sometimes things go up because they were down it's really simple but secondarily, lululemon had a fantastic quarter that they printed this week. so when you have someone who had a fantastic quarter and then they came out saying, hey, we're going to do peloton apparel, you
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can take a look at that and say, okay, you know, there's really passionate base here something's oversold there's going to be monetary value to this, and the stock goes up. so we're looking at a trading range of about 92 to 118, so when we look at that, that's a five to one downside so right now after the run, now it's overbought, but before the run it was oversold. there's 11% short interest, though, this is not something i would want to go short, no pun intended, but it is something you have to be a little bit careful and trade the range. >> absolutely, a couple of catalysts that nadine brought up we were teasing before you know if somebody's a peloton rider, they make sure to tell you now they have apparel to make sure you really know just in time you don't get time for conversation but besides that, we also had a firm earnings come out and that is a big customer for the buy now pay later with these really big pricey purchases any play there in some of this
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run, or is it for the main two reasons that nadine stated, karen? >> i love the first reason, what was it exactly she was very eloquent, if they go down a lot, then they go up, something like that, i'm paraphrasing, but that absolutely happens all the time. so that's worth noting but to the extent that one assigns the increase of value in peloton to the apparel, it seems kind of crazy to me, right if you look at something like an under armour, which, of course, the brand has a little -- you know, some knocks on it. maybe some scratches, but that's a $10 billion business, and they do 5.4 billion in sales. peloton is up $5 billion on this $5 billion, right? that's a lot peloton, i mean, that is a lot because we don't really know how much the sales are going to be if you look at something like athleta. that's maybe worth 4 billion they're doing at least a billion in sales i don't know, a lot of that is
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sort of priced into the shorts already. the peloton shorts, not the short sellers. >> i don't know. it's all expensive for me. as a bike company, it's -- i love it, i'm not going to buy the apparel, but i love the bike i use it all the time. >> fair enough >> it is already time for the final trade. i can't believe it pete, we'll start with you >> i'm going to give you a ccj, a lot of options but being bought in there, i think the stock continues to go higher. >> nadine. >> donna her dhr. they haven't changed their guidance we think they're sandbagging and they're going to have more tests this fall with flu and covid. >> that does it for "fast money," "options action" is next
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