>> the main question is, does the protection we got from the first two shots wane enough against severe disease to warp us needing a booster now we know that it wane against getting a case of covid, but does it start to wane enough about hospitalization? that's the key question. >> thanks, meg. and thanks for watching "power lunch." we do appreciate it. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." it looks lie we had be headed for a down day >> let's look at what's driving the action retail sales are coming in better than expect ed they're getting hid heart.

we've got 59 minutes led to go in today's session. coming up today jpmorgan's mike f z feroli will join us. plus the c.o.o. of palin conti courtney has more on -- mike, start us off with the broader market the stocks are basically flat >> two weeks ago today we had the s&p 500 hid a high you can see what it looks like now with the chart

is it another third week of a monday decline we'll have to see. clearly some churning below the surface. take a look at a group of cyclical sectors they having really going sideways, idling bebe low for months, since march and april. if you start to say, well, are we going to come through with a full reopening the market has been digesting this for a while take a look at the semiconductor etf, it's also still tilted higher everything in this market is a big of a give-and-take, but still, we're working near new

highs, we stayed out of the range that kept a lid on semis for a few months it's tough to get in too much trouble in the overall market if semis are still work ing also, there's weakness from coming from overseas on that front. concerns about energy supplies, a bit of a. >> so far, still above the highs. >> mike, thanks so much. we'll see you in a bit july was revised lower

>> while the commerce department says 0.7% from july, july sales, as we mentioned were revised lower than first reported. >> economists had -- a contraction month, so quite a surprise xabd to august 2020 that year over year. it gained 13.1% and the total gained more than 15% capital economics, though, is among those economists reading the details as a bit more of a carb signal, showing that the breakdown was driving by a month-over-month increase, and a 1.8% rise in food and bench store sales, pushing consumers

back to shopping from and eating at home. those did also have good growth, up 3.7% in august from july, up more than 15.5%. general merchandise sales grew 3.5 from july. department stores, those sales improved more than 2% in all, from july, and up almost 29% over last year we've been hearing about the rebound there, and this data, at least, is bearing it out of course, not at categories grew, those are down more than 3% the retail etf, the xrt, is up 1.7% today, well outperforming the broader market, even if the details are giving some economists a pause about what it needs. >> and august showing an

improvement that issen other way around >> it's always a bit backward-looking >> and i guess a number of the banks we have heard good tones what they're dein the live credit card data so we'll see if that's maintained we'll be. up next palantir we'll speak with the company's chief operating procedure, and their partnership from the supply change to autonomous driving. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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welcome back, we are higher across all four of the major averages only seven base points for the dow, in terms of points up 27 points, the low was down 274 for the session. you can see all of the major averages now higher, nasdaq up about 0.25%. palantir shares of up around 9% as the key gives details on

its partnership with weejo dow great to have both of you with us rich, if i may start with you, just exactly very quickly, what it does in collecting daughters. it just from evs, all cars, what type of data points railroad collecting >> we work with 17 manufacture ore globally we see 7% of all vehicles in norse, and we get a vat round the data from these vehicles we have 20 times more than tesla, and we get ev data, lidar data when probably, sometimes location data, we get powertrain data >> does every driver or car owner know that you're getting that data, do you think, or is this something that might well be a box they didn't quite

realized they had check at a point of purchase somewhere down the line >> nos there a clear consent process. we set up wejo that there had to be a clear consent process we have access to over 50 million vehicles so a very consent, and very price sigh purpose on how the data is used metatrends where we advise cities, into the markets, clear consent, for example, to reduce their insurance premium. >> why is it important for palantir to partner with wejo? what are you hoping to offer to the market for autonomous vehicles >> yes, thank you for having you. this is exactly in line with our mission. we're talking about transportation not only on the consumer side, but of the supply chain, helping with supply

chains, helping drive autonomy we see it for wejo to dream bigger about mobility, capitalizing on 15 years of r&d, and using that to enable them to bring more products to mark to more quickly to transform these areas. >> richard, what would you say that palantir has brought you that you weren't able to do before. >> we want to build a complete data ecosystem what palantir does is allows us to speed up that process our forecasts have over 30 million cars live on the platform next year we need to partner with palantir, we built it within weeks from having the idea to actually going to full execution. so palantir has become our perfect partner. >> shyam, of course we're going

to know what is worth to investors. wilf was how palantir was seeing a nice run how valuable is this for palantir >> we think this is very valuable, because it's indicative of a broader opportunity, a fantastic opportunity to invest in highly ambitious companies, and to help these companies, whether they're building flying cars or transforming pharma, or they're transforming the automotive ecosystem like wejo. we're helping them to shave year, potential mills onoff their -- to help them centralize their business much more quickly. what is the internal decision as to whether you take a stake in one of your clients versus taking a fee for the services you offer them >> yeah, that's a great question of course, we have a rigorous investment process and

investment committee apart from that, though, the core thesis is can our product meaningfully transform this business, can it shave -- what is it their collaboration? how are we levered in our experience to bring new products to market more quickly in the case of wejo, we're talking about a major low-carbon energy provider, and how wejo's data assets and consumer safety, and traffic patterns, congestion can help cities reduce their own foot, and so i think there's a huge play of how we can help accelerate this business this is what we're seeing as we think about investing in companies. >> and richard, remind us of what stage you're at in terms of realizing some of the investments that have been made on the spac process, and any delays that have taken place >> so it's a business combination agreement with

acquisition -- and we are -- we have made our amended statements, and we expect -- realistic before the end of q4, so we're in the latter stages. terms of the appraisal -- >> sorry, go ahead, richard. >> we were very lucky we were approached by a number of strategic investors. we're pleased to say that microsoft is one of our new investors as will. microsoft doesn't tend to invest in spacs, so a great indication of the relationships we have built and where we're going. >> richard, earlier on the in the conversation we are asking about the data points, and i think you said 7% of the market share therein. if i wanted to opt out, could i do so? or is that not an option when

you are speaking about sort of signing into these contracts >> no, you can opt out whenever you wish one oem, there are search spots for opting out, but we try to convince them how the data collection will make their lives better in aipac, they have released a new products where other cars are informing your car of free parking spots. that ultimately leads to lower emissions. it also leads to less con congestion. >> i'm certain we will be speaking with you gentlemen in the future as this moves forward and the electric vehicle market continue to say expand thank you for being here with us today. >> thank you. we have 43 minutes or so left before the closing bell sounds

the dow, s&p 500, and nasdaq are all positive, as wilf mentioned. well, after the break, vaccine mandates and healthcare workers, some hospitals are saying get the jab or lose your job. that may be adding pressure to staffing shortages in that break. check out some of the day's top-searched tickers the tech-year yield is on top followed by apple, wynn, alibaba, and the dow more after the break

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in the healthcare space, mandates could be adding pressure to an already tight job

market betha coombs has more. >> more than 30% of hospitals -- for some rural hospitals, though, it's a big risk. in upstate new york, lewis county general hospital shut down its maternity ward, as six of its nurses quit >> if they choose not to get vaccinated, that's their call, we respect it, but we do need a vaccinated workforce it is not an option. >> reporter: memorial humam in houston has set a november deadline those that have refused will be treated as having resigned. >> you can remain a member of the family, or leave your family and pursue user career at a different place or institution. >> reporter: with the biden administration looking to impose a national mandates for

healthcare workers, it would be harder for, workers to opt out and find another job right now, though, courtney, there's an 8.3% vacancy rate in healthcare workers that's a record. >> and i'm shush the field is feeling stressed and strained after the last year and a half of what they've been doing with, or more. in my hometown, i understand there are two hospitals also pushing these mandates one of them has moved the mandate back to december, after getting an awful lot of pressure forgive me if this is a silly question, but does moving it back to december do anything does it provide more people time to put it off if they aren't wanting to get it? what would that do, changing that deadline date >> reporter: it's hard to know i think a lot of folks are hoping they can continue to have a conversation as memorial herman, the ceo said

he's talked to people seriously, and he's had success convincing some people. but, you know, we talked to the nurses from the critical nurses association, and they have a new survey out 92% of their nurses -- they work in icus say their hospitals have been depleted by the pandemic. two out of three say they are considering leaving the profession so you're facing this cliff where people are just tired and already thinking about leaving you also have a lot of people who are aging, older nurses in particular, who are thinking i'm just going to go ahead and retired. so it's a really difficult time in terms of staffing, but they also insist they need to have everybody protected in order to protect their patients >> bertha coombs, as always, thanks so much still as to come jpmorgan's chief economist told

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welcome back, there is the sector heat map.

essentially is the major averages are flat. real estate is noticeably higher materials and energy two of the most disappointing earning session. oil is flat today, but up 4% this past week we have 31 minutes into the session. yet pepsi's ceo told us it's targeting early 2022 for its collaboration with beyond meat products piper sandler, out saying the catalyst for the stock for wh

wh chipotle and a shift in local commerce for delivery by mobile apps that stock is up 6% today, doo doordash >> absolutely. consumer discretionary, as you mentioned, is the highest sector here today it is now time for a cnbc news update with tyler mathisen >> courtney, thank you very much a warm welcome today in paris from president emanuel macron for the outgoing german chancellor angela merkel, but there's some chilliness in france's relation with the u.s france's embassy in washington has canceled a gala event for tomorrow that would have celebrated ties between the two countries. officials in paris accuse washington of trying to hide the u.s./uk agreement with australia on nuclear-powered submarines,

after a similar deal with paris and australia fell apart antony blinken is trying to smooth things over. >> we look forward to continued close cooperation. france, in particular, is a vital partner on this and so many other issues. house speaker nancy pelosi is in london, where she met with british prime minister boris johnson. they talked about climate change, the pandemic, maintaining peat northern ireland. the "new york times" reports that the justice department wants to pause the settlement that would prevent the sackler family it expects the higher court will throw out a bankruptcy judge's approval of that deal. that story goes on and on. back to you guys. >> you can understandsome of that french dismay, tyler, the

u.s./uk did somewhat come out of nowhere, surprised a lot of us. >> absolutely. >> it's a strange thing when you don't tell your allies what you are doing. >> thank you very much, tyler. up next jared bernstein will join us on a first on cnbc interview to react about the president's address on leveling the playing field about an hour or so ago. and mike feroli weighs in on the retail data and what that says about the state of the consumer consumer "closing bell" i wonder how the firm's doing minutes. you sure you want to leave that all behind? yeah. stay restless with the rx.

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welcome back president biden spoke about an hour ago, and for his take, jared bernstein joins us it's great to have you here. you know, we have heard a lot of the president's arguments for why he believes we should grab more taxes from the rich and the wealthy, and businesses, but do you think he's gaining any more support from those he needs to sway as he continues to make these points over and over again? >> i really do i think he continues to gain support since he's gotten here in many cases, the legislative

prospects of what this president has been trying to push have been doubted by people watching the process. i think that's been proved to be a mistake. the arguments he makes are just very compelling to the american people this is an economy at a moment that's at an inflection point. are we going to continue to reward wealth without paying nearly enough attention to rewarding work his building back better agenda that he talked about lowers the cost of child care, caring for an elder parent. it lowers drug costs, den dental and vision coverage, these are key for the middle class to be their fair shack at a part of the american growth that's eluded them for too long. >> the cost of child care is a big one. obviously, it's not new. it's something people westbound working there for a very long

time it's very labor intensive to raise a child. of course, anyone who has been around one knows the cost of labor is going up. we have this mismatch of skills and available job openings how are you really going to bring down the cost of child care >> i'm going to make sure that middle-class families have access to affordable child care by investing significantly in the sector i mean, yes, we definitely have seen some labor supply constraints. we expect those constraints to work themselves out, as the economy reopens, as kids go back to school, as some of our childcare centers start to stand up, but the investments are precisely in the sector, so that these, as you correctly put it, labor-intensive jobs are finally fair pay that's really at the core of what we are talking about here, rewarding work and making sure that those who benefited at the

top of the scale, whether it's the corporate sector, or the millionaires and billionaires who have had their wealth portfolio continually growing and often been insufficiently taxed, we're going to use those resources to help to offset the cost of making -- >> i totally get that sentiment. the president just tweeted, in fact, i want about i have this has to be said, but a teacher shouldn't pay more tax than a hedge fund manager i get that, but, therefore, why is stepping up the capital gains tax seemingly no longer on the table. >> that's a fair question. i think we're seeing a set of negotiation between the tax plan that we brought to the table and the tax plans that others are bringing to the table. at the end of the day, the president has been very consistent he's willing to

listen to any good ideas, but they have to follow the rule nobody making under $400,000 will pay a penny more in taxes as long as that line is covered and that we're making sure that those who benefited most from the rise in wealth and wealth concentration are paying their fair share, there are different ways to get at that. members of congress have been talking about a 3% surcharge on taxes over $5 million. that wasn't in our plan. they've been talking about estate taxes that wasn't in our plan raising tax rates on capital gains, on corporations above $400,000, that's still very much on the table, as is tax compliance, making sure that, again, households over $400,000 are not innovating the tax >> but when you do see pressure to take things like the -- and/or what is frankly not a proper change to carrying

interest provide, dunk that's because of the powerful lobbying interests or rational decisions in terms of what are the best taxes to reform on it does seem like the former, not the latter. >> that's another fair question. look, i've been in this town long enough to know, anytime you say the word "tax," about a thousand lobbyists step up it seems like i read the standard that there's two lobbyists for every person in washington working, is making sure the corporations pay their fair share, that no one under $400,000 pays any more in taxes and the results goes to lowering the cost of childhelping to pay for elderly parents, adding

dental and vision to medicare. now, as long as you have those lines in the sand, that he has, and you follow the tax policies, whether they be a surcharge on multimillionaires or step-up basis, that's what we're negotiating right now, and certainly worn negotiate on tv as we speak, but the bank principles matter the most here. >> finally, how important is it that this latest package of spending is all paid for the numbers are clearly very tight on this. if you can't get all of these tax increases through, should you cut the spending >> i think the key factor there is that these two words are mentioned. sometimes it becomes one wore in washington -- paid for. >> they talk about $3 if .5

trillion, that's a full cost the president's tax proposals do exactly that, we scored this very carefully, so this plan was and is and should be paid for. now, in the heat of the negotiations, we'll have to see where the gross and net figures land, but the way you teed it up is important not enough people are doing that in my view, this should not be described as a $3.5 trillion plan this could be described as a plan that's $3.5 trillion net highly progressive pay-fors that gets you to the bottom line, that at least in our budget, gets fully paid for. >> that's a big mouthful sometimes it's easier to say $3.5 trillion. i tease. >> well said. >> thank you for being with us, square bernstein

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surprise gain for the month of august nasdaq, s&p and dow just negative mike, we've been talking about the intraday performance today looked terrible for the first hour, but now looks agree. >> there's been a selling and buying opportunity in almost every trading day. that shows you it's a apprehensive market where everybody recognizes it's not the automatic grind higher that we got used to, to some degree, but a very familiar cadence of a pullback once a month. it does seem an if tactively the market didn't want to go down below try the it three times this week. >> stephanie, i want to get your take, some economists said, you have to look at some of the details and they're worrisome.

maybe we're afraid of the delta variant, which may not be so good do you see that? or do you just see it as a pretty good read, much better than what we were expecting for retail sales >> i thought it was a really good number, cord any. consumer, as you know, is 70% of the economy. so it's important to keep your eyes on every data point if you look at the numbers on a year-over year data, but on a two-basis, up 18.6%. that's 10% above pre-pandemic levels the control group, as we all know goes into gdp it was very broad based, the numbers. yeah, any given month we're going to get data points, great on online, not so great on electronic, maybe it reverses,

but the numb numbers are the numbers. wages are going higher they have a nice savings rate. oh, by the way, they have pent-up demand i know myself included, right, especially on the reopening and services part of the economy i know the monthly numbers are not terrific, but the weekly number have been pretty good i'm overweight discretionary i have a hodgepodge of different names. they lean reopen, but i think there's a lot of opportunity in that space. >> i don't know about you, stephanie, but i've never before decorated for halloween, but i felt like i almost should. i held back. >> you have to get the baby announcement for sure. >> i know, you have to have the scary little boo in your house if you're me i've got to get some stuff [ laughter ] jpmorgan cashing out on some

casino names, and growing concerns about macau, and oversight on the casinos, those stocks getting slammed all week. steph, i know that win ynn is a name in your portfolio what do you think? >> yeah, it's down 17% on the week, down 41% from its highs. right now it trades about nine times ebitda historically about 11.5 times ebit to ebitda i always try to find the number one and two player in a given instrument, if it falls, if i feel in the fundamentals, that's your opportunity again, they are the number one for sure it's not just macau. they have exposure in las vegas. they have exposure in boston they're getting into online with

a total addressable market i don't think they're getting credit for diversification that they have. they 3.9 billion in liquidity as well, and the irony of this whole thing is we just got gross gaming retches, and they were up substantial sequentially, because pore because ports are getting opened i do think it's an opportunity if you're a long-term investor. >> what percentages do you put towards the risk that all of these licenseses that the foreign operators have don't get renewed? i used to own they when i was an asian investor, and one point is the risk -- it's obviously very imminent if you went back to then and thought this type of environment would exist, both in u.s. and china relations, but also china internal regulations on clamping

down on all sorts of excess and success, it couldn't be much worse as you approach the current expiration of these licenses >> i don't think you're going to see much changes these companies have spent an enormous amount of cap ex of hiring local people for their businesses, and that's exactly what the chinese government wants. out of all the news that was out there, i don't think the licenses allowed and the questions about that come next june i don't think you're going to have 20-year licenses, you're going to see a whole total derating i think it's different, and from the government it's different from the internet companies

versus gaming. they want to promote gaming. >> those companies either way having a very tough week video game stocks also under pressure over this past week over concerns over a crackdown in china frank holland is tracking the action in those names. frank, over to you. >> hey, gaming stocks over the last week, as they're slowing the approval of new games and restricting the use by minors. daily billing down even harder, almost 14%, wedbush says it shouldn't have -- they have limited exposure they should buy the dip, even though gaming has kind of fallen out of favor, because the gaming market is forecast to grow by -- as gamers, they grow a bit older, and eastern more disposable income.

the average age of a gamer, 35 to 44. certainly not child's play. >> gaming is a slightly misleading word here but both those sectors getting hit hard. >> sure. what it's don't is at least in creating the discounts, in -- that's interesting, from a u.s. investor's perspective they had used to pretty consistent by -- they're actually now at discounts. there's other noise around there. electronics arts is delaying the roll-out some highly anticipated games, because they have shortages of staffing basically it's a development issue, a workflow issue. that's quite interesting when it comes to the chinese domicile gaming companies as well as the casinos, clearly some have did i it's not

investable it's somewhere in the wreckage, it probably makes sense to hunt around. bank of america pulling the plug, downloading lordstown and fisker to neutral. calling lordstown one of the less legitimate players in the space. a and gm advising some chevy bolt owners this week to park at least 50 feet away from other vehicles this comes after gm recalled mover than 140,000 evs due to a risk of spontaneous battery combustion it seems like a problem. stephanie, what do you think the best way to play this. i know lordstown is a very tricky name. what do you make of cathie wood

unloading some of tesla? >> lordstown is a mess, they might need to have more additional capital, the management is in flux. tesla is up 70% in the last year, the ev market is $802 billion, that's a 40% kegger i know she's in it, probably still overweight the name, but she's probably taking some profits, because she probably made a lot of money. they're growing above the market above 10%. they have good so aptiv is not cheer, but down 11% from its highs. i've been adding to that one >> quickly on tesla, and the ark selling, does this imply one of

the ultimate bulls that had price targets into the many, many multiples, is taking profits. if they're taking profits, it should be a big moment in time >> it's an actively managed etf, which means you probably have to buy something, to sell something, and so tesla has a source of funds. it's a $750 billion company. does that fit with the vibe of the next hot emerging disruptive technology that really is the thrust of those funds? i don't know you can't read the mind of cathie wood and the rest of them clearly it seems like an opportunity to do so >> definitely one to watch just under two minutes left. >> they've been relatively firm, but you see where they gave way in declining volume, close to 2 billion shares advancing so it's been wobbling back and

forth day to day yesterday was actually quite strong on that note. taking a look at how it appears on a year to date charge, if making another one of they will runs back toward the recent highs in the 93-type area, not really associated with any expectation of a financial tightening relative growth rates, plus a lot of bearishness among the investors. the volatility index is still hanging around just below 19, kind of agnostic as to whether this pullback zone will hold >> we have about 45 seconds left we are just lower, as mike mentioned in the s&p and the dow, but significantly off the session lows nasdaq is higher, only by 0.1%, but all three of those averages are higher

[ bell ringing ] >> materials and energy are the two worst-performing sectors energy has had a strong week, still up 4% so far this week as the bell goes, we are lower by 0.2%, both the s&p and dow by just 0.5 of a percent on the nasdaq ♪ i swear, it never used to be this loud before the pandemic. something has changed. >> it was really loud lastr yesterday, too mike santoli is with us for the second hour as well, cnbc markets commentator, the dow --

[ cheers and applause -- a little over a tenth of a percent. the nasdaq is squeakeding into positive territory by 20 points, and the russell 2000 also did close lower. ah, there we go. jpmorgan getting more bearish. we'll talk to mike, we could not hang on to the gains at least across the board that we just peeked into right before if i ask if the character of the market is fundamentally changed, we've seen this seasonally weak

period, the forecast trends kind of rolling as well we see bracing up for a meaty pullback the behavior of the market >> we've moved sideways over the last couple months really. what is your year-end target >> we're at 5060 for the end of 2022 that's really the based on $200 of s&p earns for this year, and 220 for next year. we think investors will pay 24

times, and 23 next year, so a bit of margin compression. >> a couple things that are going on, china and the regulation headlines, and also the supply-chain issues. some are saying it's worse anyone, that's slowing growth. delta, the numbers look better, but you have back to school to

consider on the other hand, in the face of all of this, you have pretty good economic data the empire state, for example, the philly fed, and the industrial production numbers are only two percentage points out of the pre-covid high. we talked about the sales -- and the jobs market, a four-week moving average, down year over year, we're making progress. we still have a long way to go the one thing, as i look and listen to companies, and last week vertical research had a industrial conference. cement companies said it's not a demand problem, it's the supply headaches. it's 3m, eaton, even lamb research saying demand is strong we should get through the supply issues, that should help growth, and they're going -- she can repain earnings.

i think the fourth quarter setup is good. we want to own these cyclicals. >> to mem it goes into the category of we're dealing with certain elements of mid-cycle indigestion in the system. the supply chain stuff, the fact we're seeing deceleration. they're certainly-lo -- none oft is game over all of it means every cloud comes with a silver lining, and

every silver lining is surrounded by a cloud. president biden made an address earlier today. kayla tausche is in washington with the highlights from that speech hi, kayla. >> reporter: hey, wilf, great to see you. today president biden is trying to make a public space that carried the bulk of their campaign promises, saying it was an economic inflegs point.

they're a moving target, telling the salt conference, maybe they have to be cut down in size, maybe they have to be shortened in duration. this is what we'll dough over the next few weeks in the house and senate how much of this deal the white house can keep intact will also determine its negotiating leverage, as several other fights loom. those, of course are government funding, debt ceiling and who to t top. >> potentially i mean, at this point the top-line package, with about 2.9 trial won paid for by the tax increases ruled out by house demo democrats. >> behind the scenes you have a

few centrist democrats, with the top corporate tax rates of 26.5%. for that to come down as well. a lot of this is still a moving target >> absolutely. kayla, thank you very much welcome back it's nice to see you. >> i want to bring you in on this, eric there's still a lot of ed its that still could be done before everything is passed here. at what point do you have to pay attention to this for how it impacts earns and tax hikes in certainly sectors specifically >> courtney, we've been focused on the potential for, let's call it a $7 to $12 hit to or 2022 number that will translightate -- thats you at -- not a tremendous amount of up side from here. so we're already focused on. probably the area we're most focused on is technology, which

has the beleaguered area in this environment, so i think ultimately what we're thinking about is if there's a dispropotion al -- we this is te cyclical -- >> we don't anticipate a red roe active tax but again, which for us would not be a sign of caution, just less excitement. >> steph, do you worry about 2022 and onwards in the post-stimulus world? >> yes, i actually do. very much so but i think the first half will

continue to be strong and above trek earnings remain above ten, but it still broadband above trend those things are very powerful there still is a lot of still his. i do worry second half 6 the year, as stimulus fates. if you go from a corporate tax rate of to even 25%. that's a five-percentage hit point for earnings so we may have to start to revise numbers down. so let's see what happens. it's not positive, for sure, and companies will have to adjust quite quickly. >> stef and eric, great to see you both thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> good to see you straight ahead, jpmorgan cutting its prediction up next, their chief u.s. economist will join us to outline the key reasons.

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welcome back august retail sales reporting an upside surprise. meantime jpmorgan downgrading the outlook of gdp ahead of that present, in part on delta fears and consumer spending fears. mike brody is here great to say you, as always. thanks for joining us. you were a bit surprised by the retail strength? >> we were actually looking for a better number on ex-auto sales, that said, i think it's important to know it came against a downward revision, so the net actually left our adding up of consumer spending in the third quarter, pretty much unchanged around annualized growth, so the net of a bit

better august and a worse july was kind of a wash in terms of how we were looking at gdp right now. >> sum up for us why you did downgrade gdp? >> first, one thing to say about the retail sales report, that relates to consumer spending on goods. that's about a third the other two thirds, of course, is services. that is the part of consumer spending that's more sensitive to pandemic issues, travel, tourism, you know, movie theaters, et cetera. there's a lot of reason and various pieces of data that suggest that that part of consumer spending is actually looking a little soft here, particularly in august and september. so that's one important reason why we lowered or sights on q3, delta and what it means for service. the other thing is some of the supply-chain issues, particularly the motor vehicle

sector, which may only be 3% of gdp, but it's a very important percentage, but the production is just not picking up off pretty depressed levels, even though inventories are really low. so the shortfall and what that means for inventory building was another important reason why we took down third quarter gdp. >> mike, when you look into the details, i know some economists were looking at the flat food service sales, so maybe folks not going out to eat as much, and the strong online sales up month over month, and wonder if people were -- they're not shopping online. is that something you would read into those details or not necessarily. >> no, i why we have seen this in both the first wave, spring of '20, as well as second wave last winter,

when pandemic fears pick up, online sales go up, restaurant sales go down. so they were flat this last month, but still the flat is kind of a disappointment, given still restaurant sales are a bit depressed relative to the trend, so this has all the hallmarks of nothing like the first two waves, but it is showing some caution and change in behavior seeping in as to how consumers are responding to the delta wave. >> looking forward, what are your forecasts no '22 and '23 on the gdp front? what a couple big risk factors that means -- >> next we're, we're continues to look above-trend growth, about 3% probably something softer for '23. in terms of the risk factors, i think fiscal policy is a two-sided risk factor. as your previous guest was

noting, this could be all over the place. we could have a lot of spending or taxes, and which way though breaks is going to be probably one of the most important risk factors. i think also, you know, how soon the fed moves toward removing accommodation, and to actually hiking rates could affect some of the interest-sense it i have sectors like housing that, of course, ties into who is running the fed next year, which i guess is yet another risk we're looking at for next year. >> michael, i would love to talk about labor, as we look into the final three months of the year of course, this is when retailers want to grab on to the extra seasonal hires, and they're having a hard time filling their permanent roles. what do you think is going to happen to retailers this holiday season, as we talk about the importance of consumer spending component, and we're staring down the face of a very

important season with not enough people to work in those jobs >> right i think it's important to remember that about two weeks ago, 9 mill won people came off of pandemic-era economic programs that ended the first week of september. what those nine people do will go a long way to answering the questions. right now job openings are elevated, so even half of those 9 million people go back into active search for jobs, and land something that would help alleviate some of that labor shortage issue, so it's not necessarily the case that we don't know for sure that that's going to happen, certainly in states that ended programs early, the evident isn't overwhelming that it had a sea change effect on the labor market, but i do think that's one of the important swing factors. >> mike, finally, where do you stand on inflation

i know cpi slightly underwhelmed earlier in the week, but isn't it. >> that has started to ease somewhat, but hard to say -- but it does look like the bulk of the really intense part of that reopening inflation is behind us n not to say there isn't -- but other areas that have supply-change issues i think it gets back to this

issue i just mentioned, which is what happens with the people who came off benefit a lot of those are starting to fill jobs in areas like food services, that's also been an area of inflation strength recently, and some of that is related. >> as we head into the final part of the year, mike feroli, thank you for joining us. we'll dive into a new cnbc survey, and what that could mean for the stocks. and we'll talk to the head of a latina-led ventures firm.

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welcome back, a new survey is shedding light on how consumers feel about a booster. >> this all comes before a huge fda meeting to discuss a future of the pfizer vaccine. before that, we wanted to get a sense of how people are thinking

about these things some people felt so strong her, some had even already gotten one. polling suggests somewhere between 4% and 16% of americans have already gone out and gotten a booster. that's more than the number for those currently indicated. 82% saying they probably or definitely will. we also wanted to know if people are planning to stick with the same brand until there are available data on switching, and for now, a lot of people do say it is important to stick with the same brand, almost 80% it turns out most people say they prefer pfizer for the

booster. that's probably related to how people gotpfizer the first tim around of people who wanted to switch we 230u7bd most people who wanted to switch, 25% of people who got the j&j shot said they wanted a different brand for their booster. so it will be interesting to hear what the advisory committee says tomorrow about the pfizer vaccine, but also what they think about the need for boosters more broadly, and we'll start to see what the recommendation will look like. >> to your last set of charges of preference there. i get one big different from the first time around, we kind of took what we were given, and you took chvr brand that was the of first appointment available. this time around is a more plentiy form supply, where might actually have a choice absolutely, probably, though if boosters do start getting

rolled out next week, it's really just going to be a recommendation to people who got pfizer and are six to eight months out of their original shot we don't have data from u.s. trials about what happened if you got two phiers and switched to a j&j, or you got a j&j and now want a moderna people may take matters into their own hands, even though it's not recommended. >> meg, remind us again where we are, what we know about those individuals' immunity that were in the initial trials. it wears off to what percentage, we believe, at this point? >> yeah, we just saw some in data from moderna actually last night that came out looking about a year out from people in the clinical trial what they found is that immunity does start to wane after about a year, compared with people who are only about eight months out.

against severe disease, that's the key debate some phones count think we need boosters, so it will be quite a debate tomorrow. meg, thank you so much court, i'm going to ask meg which one and when she's the expert. >> i've been her on the speed dial sorry, meg, but that's what we've got to do. ahead of the fda advisory meeting tomorrow, let's bring in two analysts covering the vaccine makers louise chen and jeff borges. this is a very interesting proposition where the outlook is for moderna, pfizer and j&j, if you believe that a booster shot is going to be recommend ed and

how that impacts >> i cover both j&j and pfizer, so i'll answer for those two companies. i believe if a booster is recommended for the broader population, the adult population, then i think it could represent some meaningful upside for pfizer, because that really hasn't been put in there. for j&j it's more of an incremental positive if the fda does recommend it, then i think it puts it at another step closer to saying maybe on a seasonal basis we need to have these covid vaccines and, jeff, do you cover moderna >> no, i cover pfizer, and my colleague covers moderna okay okay i will ask you the same question what is the up side, if there is anything, for pfizer if indeed the booster shots are

recommended? do you think that individuals will end up going with pfizer if they got it previously >> i think it depends on the outcome tomorrow one outcome is they recommend it just for the over-60 and immunocompromised. i think that's more or less priced into the expectations the other recommend is they approve it for everybody i think that's unlike ly. >> a couple weeks ago. i do think there's an up side. >> you know, earlier in the summer, so there is a fair amount of volatility around this outcome.

>> jove, do you think that booster are definitely worthwhile, though >> i think the evidence from israel, from the uk, from the u.s. suggests that we're on the cusp of a real increase in breakthrough cases, and this complicated breakthrough cases hospitalizations in people who have previously the full course of the vaccine so i think that evidence is going to be presented to the fda's advisory committee tomorrow, and i think they're going to weigh heavily on that evidence, and probably suggest there will be a booster, at least for the portion that pfizer is applying for is the over-60 and immunocompromised. >> how is the current data relevant >> there's data in the uk with a long-term follow-up of people who were vaccinated early. indeed the immunity is coming down, particularly for the

astrazeneca veeck, but also the pfizer vaccine it's that the antibody is coming down, and then six or seven months you start to see an increase in hospitalization, so i think all of that evidence will be outwade. >> you know, what i find fascinating is about the whole vaccine discussion is we're all very cognizant of the vaccine that we got, meaning i know that i got the pfizer vaccine or someone got the moderna is very well aware of that i get a flu shot, and i have no idea who makes it is there something that can be quantifiable knowing that pfizer make that vaccine, and i believe it did help me to be protected am i going to, i don't know, feel better with pfizer with the open pipeline of drugs and

therapies? >> that's a big question, one we debate a lot my sense is because pfizer has a lot of data and it's one of the most widely used vaccines, there's a good likely had people will not move around also with potential side effects, but if you got it, you 23e89 good about it, didn't have a sever adverse reaction, it's probably the safer bet for you the other things that might impact which vaccine that people choose over the longer term would be administration. i know pfizer is trying to makes the administration easier, and the applicability of that daughter for pregnant women and children, i think that would be important as well. >> louise and jeff, thanks so much for joining us. great to see you both. >> a pleasure. thank you. up next, the bears coming out of hibernation, finding a big swing from bulls to bears.

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the president says he's not on you to punish anyone, but is asking those long benefitting from tax breaks to pay his fair share. a lawyer surrendered today alex murdaugh's lawyer says he was depressed and aticketed to opioids after the unsolved shooting death of his wife and another of his son officers responded to a call about a couple fighting.

that couple, gabby petito and her then fiance. lawnry refuses to answer police questions and cops have 4r5ib8d him a person of about the. tonight, full coverage of this story, and the pressure on the boyfriend to talk on the news at 7:00 eastern wilf, back to you. let's go to mike about the investor sentiment survey. a pretty pronounced swing. this is somewhat smile sample size, a bit of an erratic survey, but definitely notable when you see as twice as many bears ago bulls, where most of the year you've had net bullish sentiment. remember, this swing toward negativity has happened as the

s&p has just wavered, down no more than 2% or 3%, all else being equal, this could be -- they don't necessarily are looking for negative surprises however, working a lit against that the main -- it's at an extreme right here, the top five in term of top money already gone in. some of these dates did coincide, so it's almost as if either fully invested bears or nervous bulls, however you want to call it, i don't think you have outright but it is helpful when you have been pulling back to see people at least get more

concerned as opposed to, sort of neglecting it. >> okay. we've been warned. mike, i see it we'll see if it bears out. get it after the break, we'll speak with the head of one of the largest latina-led capital firms, and where she sees opportunities now in the market. "closing bell" will be right back

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i latest data shows latino entrepreneurs still suffer from funding gaps according to data from crunch base, latino-owned companies only received $2.7 billion or only 1.7% of total venture capital funding. joining us now, miriam ribera. rivera was one of the first u.s.-born latinos to lead the venture firm very good afternoon to you thank you for joining us thank you for having me. so your company. >> we focus on diverse teams,

and we think it's a great opportunity, because it is one of the faster self-educating groups in the entire country, second only to women do you think this leads to better results to factors that make entrepreneurs worth backing more than others, or is it more a leveling the playing field initiative >> well, i think there's about three points here, one of which is latino entrepreneurs represent a very large segment of the u.s. consumer base, and it is a growing base so in the gen-z population, a quarter of those people have latino origins in their family so that is a much larger impact that in past generations secondly over $2.4 trillion of buying power, so companies that

don't respond to this market are really missing out, and we believe diverse teams that include latinx are much more likely to be profit article and we have a number of founders from that group. >> very interesting here you have -- 2 says, $200 million in assets, nine unicorns in the portfolio. sofi and palantir are two of th names. we speak about those names a lot here, but why those names? >> two of our recently public companies out of our first funnel in part, they're just great technologies, but first-round investors in sofi in particular, and part of that is having advantages here in silicon valley, in terms of having great access i came here as an 18-year-old on

a full scholarship to stanford university i've been an early employee at google, one of the first 160 there, helped grow that company to $5 billion. i think it's partly because of our access and also because entrepreneurs are looking for diverse investors to be part of their cap tables >> miriam, you just ran through some of your career highlights yourself there are many more as well. what advice would you have for any other minorities watching who have aspirations to follow similarly in your footsteps? >> the first thing is to be involved in tech it's a really great sector i started early in tech in high school i had coding three years out of four in my math classes. so that ability, to be part of the conversation and to be in the growing fields is really

important for all latinx that are in school now and training up for careers >> miriam, you mentioned, of course, women as also an underfunded group, but a gripe that's increasingly trying to set up on a path of entrepreneurialship. what advice specifically would you give women and why do you see advantages to investing in women-led or jersey-owned companies? >> the data shows that women-led companies outperform all male companies by about 30% that's recent research women are also more educated in men in the u.s. population recent constituents show that about 60% of college graduates are women, and more women are earning advanced degrees than men in the u.s so one is they're actually very motivated, hard-working, and i

think they're able to parallel process in ways that maybe they weren't given credit for in the past. >> miriam, final markets-based question how are you feeling about valuations at the moment, private versus public? >> valuations have gone kind of a little crazy in silicon valley, but one of the things people focus on is whether or not can achieve a 10x multiple, and so we're ability to address those fluctuations in valuation that come when great returns and liquidity in company such as palantir and sofi lead so many more people that want to participate in funds we think it's -- that we really do have a methodology that can address such fluctuations. thank you for joining us

much appreciated. >> thank you. for more investment ideas, don't miss cnbc's delivers alpha conference we're bringing in the biggest names for high-level discussions in today os global economy register at delivering alpha supply-chain struggles worsening for small businesses why more than half of bigging su survey say conditions are worse than three months ago. that's next. at verizon we want to put the power of 5g in the hands of every business.

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new data shows small businesses are getting hit hard by supply chain disruptions ahead of the 2021 holiday season hi, kate >> hey the national federation of independent business is out with its latest covid-19 survey and it shows half of all small business owners report this has had a significant impact on business more than half of owners being impacted reported that the disruption is worse than it was three months ago and what's more, 86% anticipate these issues will continue for at least the next five months or more beyond supply chain issues, the other major hurdle are continued staffing challenges.

27% said that they're experiencing a significant shortage and about half say they are receiving fewer job po applications now than a month ago. unfilled job openings are at a high these challenges are weighing on main street's outlook. nearly a quarter say they anticipate things will return to pre- pre-crisis level in the first half of 2022 they attempt to recoup some of the sales lost last year due to the pandemic back to you. >> just wondering if in any of your reporting out, you have had small businesses say to you something to the tune of well, thank goodness consumer demand is strong. that's what i've been hearing from some retailers at least because at least then if the cost of getting the goods is higher because of the disruption, the consumer is at least able to take that on are small businesses feeling the same or is that not necessarily the case >> so i think they are certainly

grateful for that pent up consumer demand, but they've also been waiting for this moment you know, for basically the last year, to recoup those lost sales and now they don't have the workers and supply to really be able to meet that consumer demand there's a lot of hope it will improve. but grateful for consumer demand, but really frustrated this is happening at this point in time. >> thanks so much for that the fda holding a key meeting on vaccine booster shots tomorrow we'll tell you what to wchat for next in our wall street look ahead. we're back in a couple of minutes.

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the world bank said it's discounting a report following an investigation into data irre irregularities >> the investigation into the world bank's doing business report, a ranking of business environments and countries around the world, found that officials succumbed to pressure to elevate the rankings of china and other countries. among those implicated, former

world bank chief who now runs the international monetary fund. in a statement, she said this. she said i disagree with the findings and interpretations of the investigation of data irregularities as it relates to my role in the world bank's doing business report of 2018. i've had an initial briefing with the imf's executive board on this matter the u.s. treasury department said the probe produced what it called serious findings and it's conducting its own analysis of the world bank's handling of the matter >> thank you very much now to our wall street look ahead on the data front. tomorrow, we'll get the consumer sentiment report the fda will also hold a key meeting to discuss the booster dees of pfizer's booster when we talk to dr. fauci. what a great day to have him on.

>> that will be great. don't want to miss that tomorrow and mike, quite an interesting week now we're positive for the week. only slightly, but big sector divergence as we mention the strength in energy early in the week, but a net positive tak takeaway given some of the headlines. >> which is a bit contrary to how it's felt. it's as if the footing has been very uncertain in the markets for a couple of weeks. even the macro concerns about slowdown about whether in fact we're going to have another relapse into a covid surge they're belied by the sector leadership which has been more scr skied toward value and cyclicals. it is worth remembering that the michigan consumer sentiment number we're going to get tomorrow, not typically a huge market mover, but it's gotten a lot of attention recently because it did show a decline in consumer sentiment and also a spike in consumer inflation.

so it's been something people have fixated on even it's not really something that predicts what inflation's going to be like >> sure. consumer discretionary sector was the strongest. etsy at the top, mgm, bath and body works a mixed bag. >> those names have a little bit of their own story as opposed to it being a macro play. certainly etsy and tractor supply net winners amazon looks like it's at another interesting moment on the chart, too looks like it's been kind of compressed there >> interesting as well as seeing, not yields of sort, but the yellow rising off the back of retail sales and the cpi miss in the rear-view mirror now. >> it doesn't seem as if they're going to blast off people have talked about how it looks like 1.4 on the ten-year

would be tough to crack through soon, but i think you have to take away from that, the market's not in the throes of a desperate growth scare >> we ended essentially flat the nasdaq, about a third of a percent. thanks so much for watching. "fast money" starts right now. >> live from the nasdaq market site overlooking sometimes square, this is "fast money. tonight on fast, buckle up we are putting the pedal to the medal. three headlines. we'll break down who's winning the ev race. plus, buy the dip. tim is making the case for a beaten down name today he'll take the mound with a fast pitch. and later, scam, reckless, a raging dumpster fire just some of the words used in a scathing report on a medical technology company