by about 20% they expect to begin construction next year still, prices have soared to nearly $2,000 a ton up from $500 last summer. that does it for "the exchange." "power lunch" with a special guest begins right now i am here. kelly, thank you i am dominic chu in for tyler mathison on this friday afternoon. here is what's ahead buy this, sell that. we have a list of the names to own and which ones to ditch in the best and worst performing sectors over the course of the last month is esg broken? the investments may not always be as green as they seem are they actually doing more harm than good the former head of sustainable investing at black rock weighs in on the debate and a not so happy hour. higher inflation leading to a

shortage of whiskey. the ceo who says he's never seen anything like this before. kelly, bourbon coming up >> not my style. the dow is down about 189 points the nasdaq is down 1.1% so it's continuing to slide. the ten-year yield is continuing to rise. that's ahead of next week's fed meeting, a high of 1.38% there's the ten year down 1.36 materials are lagging. there you can see the declines in positive territory today or almost, health care down fractionally a health care briefly was the only sector, dom, in the green

we are debuting a new segment called "buy this, sell that." our next guest is looking at a stock to buy and a stock to sell in consumer discretionary, the top-performing sector and health care which is the worst performer. we are speaking with the managing partner and portfolio manager over at d.c. lane and associates, a cnbc contributor you'll often see him on "squawk box" and "the halftime report. let's talk about whether or not there is a reason to want to own specific stocks. you are a stock picker let's talk about which ones you want to buy. >> dom, to your point consumer discretionary, one of the best performing sectors, you look at gm, trading at eight times earnings you have record demand for products and we can't supply them you have a management team really focused they removed themselves from europe

they're focused on high margin, electric, and a great balance sheet to boot. so i think here is an opportunity of a stock down 15% over the last few weeks in a sector that's rising as a stock picker, i like that one. >> we're going to buy this let's talk about within consumer discretionary which stock we want to sell that of >> so take the offset, a phenomenal company making products that go into all types of vehicles is trading at 30 sometimes earnings their ability to pass those on to oems, here is a company that just is overpriced it's not where i would like it today. >> now if we take a look at the consumer discretionary side, a place that you could say is a

bottom fishing kind of pit right now. the other sector, whatexactly then would you be buying in terms of the overall pick within, say, health care or other sectors out there? >> so within health care, which has been hurt the last month and you have some discussion in washington as to what they're going to do in terms of subsidizing, et cetera, there's zimmer zimmer makes products for your knees, your shoulders, your hymns. given the delta variant now, zimmer is trading at a reasonable valuation for its growth rate. you'll have a huge tail wind they're separating some of their other businesses the stock is down 20%. i like this stock and want to add to it. i think it's one you want to add in your portfolio. >> the balancing act here, the one you want to sell in health care, sarat?

>> so that would be alcon. again, similar, a really great company. it's trading at 30 times earnings again the demand is great but it's single digits. surgery for your eye, vision care, contact lenses, et cetera. these are stocks they are much more susceptible to pull back the margin of safety on a stock like that is much lower than you would have on something else growing at a same rate if not faster at half the valuation >> those are your buys buy this and not that. if you want to pick up on the discussion we were having about taxes and the impact on the market, do you think selling pressure is going up is part of why we see markets struggle here >> i think that's part of it the uncertainty on what are we going to do with taxes, what is

happening if you look at geopolitical as well the delta variant this is a pretty strong cocktail investors are saying where do i want to take my profits. having said that i still think the elements for a market to go up are there you can definitely see that people are taking money off the table. we're getting close to year end. so people are going to start now taking their loozers as well either they double up or what we call go naked. on a market that hasn't had a 5% correction since last october. i think you're going to see more volatility going into year end >> you must be having a lot of conversations with your clients these days what are the questions they're asking you the most about what's happening with their money >> i think the big question is where are we going to go with inflation, what's going to

happen with interest rates and the fear, dom, the big fear is what if wages start moving up but the economy starts slowing the stagflation scenario is not very good for the stock markets, it's not good for assets and, in fact, that's something people are asking about a combination of those the question is where do rates go given that we're seeing a global inflation is it transitory or not. >> because we'll have a debate in a moment on stagflation, are you in the stagflation camp or only your clients in that camp >> i'm not i do think we have demand. we were just talking about if you look at car companies, semiconductors, there are a lot of companies that can't supply the demand and i think that will keep on going. inflation is there but it's not double digit inflation we do need the rates to move up

a little bit i think the ten year is all good for a healthy economy. we can't keep rates this low >> thank you very much for playing our edition of "buy this, sell that. >> thank you it's been a rough week for some of the major overseas markets. to seema mody with the numbers today. >> let's talk global markets the losses more pronounced there are increased concerns and what beijing may target next check out some of the etfs that hold a lot of these names down 4% to 6% just this week. as you can see on track for its sixth monthly decline.

all of the etfs down 30% or more from respective highs. while they say regulatory efforts are, quote, unserving, they do not think china is uninvestable and sees opportunity in the long term once all of this noise dissipates the question is do investors have the patience for all of this given we don't know what will come next for the chinese >> it has not been a winning proposition so far >> china in particular, a number of factors any other economy you can do your analysis, this may be an outlier. >> the economic data has not been so great as of late kathy wood pulling out or getting more selective there's a lot to go through right now when you're looking at investing overseas the former head of black rock follows the money to look at the real-world impact of esg

and "trading nation" weighs in lots more "power lunch" ahead. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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so can you follow the money? how does the investment in the fund have a real-world impact? joining us now is the founder and ceo and former black rock ceo for sustainable investing. tariq, it's good to have you one of the things we wanted to get to is this question of does it just not help or does it actually not work? what data or anecdotes or evidence do you have if you think the latter is true >> i think it's harmful and harmful because it has no real world positive impact and demonstrably distracting us and the public at large from the solution that is do have real world impact in that sense i would call it a deadly distraction or placebo that is lulling us into believing a win-win fantasy that doesn't work to answer the

inconvenient truth we're forced to acknowledge >> but, again -- i understand the skepticism i absolutely do. when you listen to people talking, for instance, about what's happening in the energy markets right now where there's real problems with supply shortages and real questions about how much renewables and clean tech has -- the adoption of that has grown, both policy choices and time and again the investing trend. on the one hand if that community is telling you it's esg's fault how can it be it has no impact? >> the market will figure it out all by itself. stakeholder capitalism the second are products that exploit the growing angst that nothing is getting done.

it just doesn't change anything. the responsibility the community will say when you say this doesn't help at all will say look at this progress and all these words and this happening and that happening it masks the fact the progress is not as fast as we need it to be everybody knows that this is blocking the reforms we need that would get us to go at those speeds esg is founded on the same flawed ideas -- in the '80s free markets solve all problems now in 2021 we're being fed another free market self-correct argument a lot of nice words around it, useful tools, useful data but the narratives and products don't do anything.

the challenges if we listen to the little bit of progress, it distracts us that it's not as fast and we're ignoring what our own experts are telling us not one of them talks about buying an etf or engaging with proxy. that's where the conversation is it's meant to make us believe there's progress being created and not realize it comes with the cost of the progress we need >> we know it's just not going to happen overnight. we have decades worth of investing paradigms to break through here i guess my question is from the actionable standpoint, what's the next step in the evolution what is the next evolution of esg? what would you like happen so it falls more within the confines of being a farce for good in investing in society

>> it needs to be two things much more rigorous and honest. much less marketing around a set of products that don't have a lot of impact. there are private, long-term vehicles that provide fresh funding to innovators that if you didn't invest in the fund they wouldn't have otherwise had it they're marketed to convince the buyer you're doing something that wouldn't have happened. they can exploit the fact that socially conscious investors would rather own a basket of nicer stocks they don't understand they're not providing more capital number one, it would need to be more rigorous and number two business has to understand the limitations of what it can do without regulation

you have a fiduciary obligation and you have a market failure. you combine the two, you don't get anywhere unless you correct the market failure esg and all the thesis around it are destroying the foundation for government reform. they lull us into believing you can fight climate change who is going to pick the solution that has the word tax in it. if you can buy a fund and fight climate change at the same time. we all want to believe it. the only problem it's not true >> tariq fancy, thank you very much and good luck with your initiative, sir. >> thank you up next, the next frontier of technology. the rise of vr and ar sports training becoming an industry we will dive into that big trade in the next frontier coming up today, things can be pretty unexpected. but your customers, they still expect things to be simple.

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welcome back to "power lunch. i'm rahel solomon and up cnbc news update this hour. the justice department announcing criminal charges against 138 people including doctors for alleged health care fraud that involved $1.4 billion in suspected losses. the cases include the use of telemedicine which alone accounted for losses capitol police chief saying there have been some threats ahead of tomorrow's rally. he also says that they have a strong plan in place to ensure the rally remains peaceful and to stop violence quickly if it does occur sotheby's announcing it will auction off a rare copy of the constitution this november it is one of just 11 known copies of the first official printing of the final text of the constitution expected to be for $15 million to $20 million by the way, today is

constitution day plenty of reasons to have a party. >> and quadruple witching day. so many catalysts. thank you very much, rahel solomon. we'll see you later on this afternoon. >> the dow, the s&p and the nasdaq are in the red. we're down 171 points for the dow industrials. at the lows of the day down 230-odd points at the highs of the day we were in green, up about 28. that's the range that we're in two-thirds of a percent. oil ending the week in the red as a storm hit u.s. supplies trickle back in. you can see wti crude, $71.90. up over 3% and here are some of the day's movers

"the wall street journal" reporting the deal is not imminent or finalized. state street down about 2.5% zumies announcing a share repurchase program stocks are on the move up 6% right now. barclay's reiterating its overweight faster than expected adoption of its office 365 and azure cloud services moving lower down 1.5% for more on this call and others, kelly can get the full stories on analyst upgrades and downgrades the future of sports and athletic training is virtual a lot of money is flowing into startups that are transforming the industry julia boorstin takes a look at the next frontier. new high-tech sports

startups embracing augmented and virtual reality to train athletes vc investing $91 million into sports technology companies and $185 million last year up from just $28 million in 2019 status pro combines ar, vr and player data to create training programs it raised over $5 million from investors including the 49ers and verizon's venture arms former nfl pro andrew hawkins and troy jones seiko inay covidr half a dozen and more. >> i don't have my guys in place. what can we use to help solve that problem and then be prepared in the event something like this happens again? >> we understand exactly what it's like being on the field so we feel like with that data point of real-life experience mixed with what we know about the technology, we've been able

to take the technology and baseline and apply it in a completely different way >> reporter: another example sky tech sport is a skiing and snowboarding simulator to both train athletes and to teach beginners. and zwift which blends fitness equipment, nearly 4 million to take virtual bike rides or participate in virtual bike riding competitions. kind of like esports while the tools are starting off more for serious athletes, the companies that make them to bring down prices to make them more successful to folks >> thinking about peloton is a huge breakthrough but could the next gen be these faux skiing or snowboarding in your basement with these amazing screens in front of you >> i would say as a golfer one of the things that's been huge in terms of technical advancement is the accuracy of

simulators these days you can have systems that can go out there and analyze your swing, show you spin rates, launch angles. it doesn't surprise me this could be the next level, the next layer >> are those at home >> they have sensors out there like radars and everything else that can show you up to the milli millisecond. >> next is peloton, julia. >> reporter: yeah, well, it could be the next peloton. there is a wide variety. the skiing and snowboarding simulators are already in hundreds of locations around the country. right now they're mostly in ski towns and that's where it makes the most sense now as the prices come down you can buy them more at home. zwift is like a bike that's also a video game you could pay $15 a month and

attach something to your bike that you already have at home so that's more accessible or you could pay a couple thousand for a bike some are within reach. that's more about using a bike you already have but you can buy one of their devices >> i already know how to ride a bike but i really need help with golf, dom. >> we can do it. we'll work with you on it. >> i am so bad if it's $15 a month -- >> more on this after the show >> ahead on "power lunch" are stagflation fears overinflated plus an economic message in the battle we'll speak with the head of a major distiller. it's hispanic heritage month and we're spotlighting contributors, business leaders and our own onair reporters. here is beauty blender ceo >> i believe my latina heritage

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welcome back to "power lunch. shares of moderna lower after wall street's top analysts say he does not expect the fda to remco individual booster shots today. joining us now senior analyst. the headline of this is i do not think the fda panel will remco individual boosters today. take us through why not. >> so not yet. and here is why. if you look at the focus, by and far they're focused on severe disease and there is no evidence yet which suggests efficacy is below 80% or so.

the single best evidence going against that is that it is real. the way it has stacked up the data pairing it with the uk statistician as well as the majority of the members that will vote today. >> so if that's the case and it's a not yet, not today, a not yet scenario, at what point do you feel the data will be there or the balance will tip in favor of hypothetical of why they should get booster shots >> the second most important thing is a u.s.-based study which sucks that efficacy has faded to, i don't know, from where it's at right now. until that happens we're not going to get there

would it even happy at all the cases in israel, it's hard to ignore that there's a lot of confounders but it's hard to ignore along with the fact that israel was faction nated before everywhere else efficacy will warrant a booster it's just not yet. >> the case count is up or there are boosters >> there's a fair amount of boosters now look at the decline in cases in the boosted versus unvaccinated. they're comparing unvaccinated -- we should be looking for booster versus no boosted. just not a booster yet and some of the data are still missing.

>> a quick final question here from the stock's point of view, moderna trading down today, there's a lot at stake for the vaccine makers if this is not -- if they don't go in favor of boosters, the names continue to trade down significantly? >> look, i don't cover moderna but i'll speak to pfizer in general are we lining up for an endemic virus which will require boosting at least annually or something like that? most likely. i don't think the timing matters on much of the names the way i see it >> does it then leave the u.s. at risk of an unboosted population going into the winter in terms of thinking about is it possible we could face a bad covid wave at the worst time >> as we think about that i

think the way they handled the mask mandate was probably more relevant to the amount of viruses out there. >> in other words keeping mask >> i think whenever the data does warrant boosters. >> i know we'll hear from the fda itself stoking some fierce about stagflation. a growing number of market watchers are warning it's a real possibility but are the concerns overblown? ron insana is cnbc's commentator and senior adviser to schroeder north america. rick santelli is with us as well >> we built a graphic to make a comparison what the world looks like today.

we have double digit inflation and double digit interest rates and a recession all simultaneous ly are we at risk of that experience somewhere down the road there are some similarities in terms of policies but it's certainly not identical. we're very different environment here the unemployment rate continues to fall. inflation has gone up. growth is positive though it may be slowing down. easily use that expression to describe the environment we find ourselves in >> if that's the case, rick, i guess maybe i'll turn to you for this one is there any kind of perhaps characteristic right now that suggests that it could be

anything more than just this passing worry about quote/unquote transitory inflation. is there a real sign here and something more structural at play >> reporter: i can't argue with ron. all his numbers are correct. it's a static shot i think what we have is a variant of stagflation why? let's look at declining business activity atlanta gdp, let's show the chart. 7.6 now. ron is right, 6.3 and 6.6 first and second quarter so we've slowed i say 4.7 with one-year inflation outlook in today's universe let's look at two charts cpi headline and michigan. and what was inflation precovid,

2.3% it's now 5.3%. finally when we look at unemployment, i look at 1 million jobs the previous month, 235,000 the last look and if i look at what the unemployment rate was precovid it was 3.5% versus the current 5.2%. where you take in and try to turn it on and you have false starts and delta variants i think the current trends especially at a time where 78 cents of every dollar we spend right now is creating debt 78 cents is borrowed >> ron, a final word on that >> the stagflation that began in the late '60s and moved through the 1980s, there are some

similarities, quadrupled the iranian revolution, triple it we had wage and price controls automatic increases. some vague similarities. with rates having gone to 20% of the short end versus zero today, the markets are discounting stagflation as we know it. more of an economic recovery that has been for the delta variant. >> debating the stag up next, inflation giving the whiskey industry a hangover. prices of corn, wood for barrels, glass for bottles, all spiking for that last conversation we'll speak for the president coming up.

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welcome back to happy hour, "power lunch." corn, lumber, glass, steel, all experiencing price volatility and all that have is converging on the whiskey business. those rising costs and all the components that make up a bottle of whiskey is driving prices significantly higher all while the industry is seeing shortages of supply caused by growing supply chain disruptions. how are distillers dealing with all of this? here now to discuss is the president joseph, thank you for being with us here we see all that product behind you. i know that going to my local liquor store will cost me a small fortune. what is the primary driver of why whiskey and bourbon prices are so much higher now than two

years ago? >> well, first of all, thank you so much, dom and kelly, for having me on today there are so many inflationary pressures on our industry right now. i almost don't even know where to begin lumber when you're aging whiskey you have to use the wood we make the barrels from out of a particular hardwood, even lumber bounced around and the price moderated a bit. up 17% this year leading to an increase in barrel prices of 7% to 107%. corn in general is up to 50% this year. we farm our own estate grown grains on our farm in springfield so that helps us a

bit to hedge, but we still buy the majority of our corn and the corn that we buy, because dan mckey is particular about what he works with, non-gmo u.s. grade one corn our corn prices have gone up 59% and that's the main -- that's this year. that's the main ingredient we use to ferment for bourbon there's all sorts of pressures i mean glass -- glass has gone up a lot but, you know, people have been lucky to get -- just happy to get the glass >> i had a good friend of mine, who is a bourbon aficionado text me a photo of a bottle of bourbon, that i will not say what bran it is. it was not michter's, but premium bourbon whis kkeys two, three, years ago they got up to some $100 a

bottle he took a picture that showed the same bottle i could have bought two years ago $75 to $80 selling for over $200 right now. is most of that pricing pressure coming from your end of things to retailers and distributors or are they passing it on to me more on their side >> what's really -- we have items that -- there's one item i think our suggested retail is about $1,000 a bottle on it roughly. might even have been lower i was on wine search last week a retailer in the u.s. is selling the bottle for $29,999 that's a bottle. so it really is a matter of supply and demand. when we acquired michter, it was an abandoned brand in the 1990s. we acquired it for $245 because of the liquor business and

spirit business in those days was just really in a terrible depression effectively what's happened is over time the super premium part of the business has basically exploded and there's a lot of great american companies, not just us, making wonderful whiskeys and a growing recognition not just here but around the world that american whiskey when it's really good can rival cognac and scotch there was an auction in london in july 2020 where a barrel of michter's set the world record for 160,000 pounds sold at auction. i think there's increasing popularity and increasing recognition especially at the highest end of the business. >> joseph, before we let you go, just a couple seconds left here. are the storage facilities with all those barrels full and you just can't get the supplies out there because of supply trucking

needs, or is it because you don't have enough product? >> well, even before covid we have the good news and the bad news, we had to allocate our product, but we are in the process of building two new 20,000-barrel barrel houses. we thought we were all set to start in february. the steel joists that we were going to have fabricated were eight months delayed and so we had to re-engineer by the time we re-engineered things in july, our contractor had to rebid because the metal prices for the metals we use in our barrel houses had gone up 57%. so it's a really challenging time like a lot of other companies, we're running out. >> joseph, thank you so much over at michter's.

please keep us up to speed on what's happening with your supply chains in the future. >> thank you so much great to be on >> that is a crazy story at least in this case you can say it's discretionary but analogous with parts of the supply chain vital >> i'm curious what the transportation side of things will with other things >> i'm curious with what the transportation side of things in interest of crimping supplies. >> it's bad, really bad. coming up, gold gone cold. trading nation says will trading nation is more powerful than silver "power lunch" will be right back sales are down from last quarter but we are hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uh... doug? sorry about that. umm... what...its...um... you alright? [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers plus some of the lowest options and futures contract prices around. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

welcome back to "power lunch. i'm seema mody gold and crypto bulls continue to duke it out this week, we did see gold fall about 2% as the dollar rallied on the likelihood that the fed will taper some time this fall, over that same stretch, bitcoin gaining a similar amount one of our next guests says gold, the trade is dead. and long live the crypto crusade. let's bring in danielle shea you're the one saying buy bitcoin, sell gold

tell us why. >> i went into this year thinking that gold was going to be the inflationer trade, but it absolutely is not. we started off the beginning of the year with this massive rally in bitcoin, and a lot of those traders got flushed out. however, what they're not seeing is it's still up significantly compared to gold, and when you look at the set-up right now, bitcoin is set up in a consolidation pattern. it looks like it's going to break out and hit 55,000 gold on the other hand, is below resistance at 1,900, and looks to me like it's headed to $1,700 an ounce definitely long bitcoin and out of gold. >> craig, what do you think. do you agree or disagree with danielle >> there's parts of it that i disagree with danielle i'm in the crypto camp i think bitcoin will work its way higher the midpoint of this trade range, in fact, it looked like a big head and shoulder's top was forming on bitcoin and you came right down to a 78% retracement level, rallied off of it i think you'll go back to the old highs.

these are not perfect institutes those who have been buying gold for the store of wealth are not selling the gold and not going to be going and buying the bitcoin. i agree with danielle that the chart on gold looks quite week and on thes to be trending lower. i'd be avoiding that at this point in time. i don't think they're the same two buyers two different buyers for these instruments. >> perhaps a different profile of investors i hear you there craig and danielle, great to see you both for more trading nation, head to our website. follow us on twitter dom, back to you >> seema, wall street's witching hour more than $750 billion of single-stock options are set to expire today

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you have the best pizza in town and the worst wait times. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire welcome back, everybody. it's wall street's witching hour today is quadruple witching, the expiration of index futures,

single-stock options and single-stock futures it's always a big deal, but today is different it's much bigger, because of the sheer size, more than $750 billion of single-stock options will expire, the second largest non-january expiration >> it's huge and only because retail trading may be a large part of this story, right and the reason why i'm saying this is because, take a look at robin hood which we'll use as a proxy for retail trading platforms. in the first six months of last year, the total amount of revenue they made from their options trading business was $171 million the first six months of this year, it's $362 million. we know how much more emphasis there is among retail traders, among not just meme stocks, but kind of story stocks in general. that's the reason why it's good to pay attention, because this is going to be huge if it's a trend that continues >> absolutely. and it looks like it will continue don't we anecdotally agree, the interest in options has exploded >> not just that, it's interest in like short-date d expiry

options. goldman sachs put out a notice today and said that 71% of options trading and the interest in it are in options expiries that are two weeks or less that goes to show, they might be more speculative in nature >> have a nice weekend, dom. >> you too >> thanks for watching power lunch, everybody "closing bell" starts right now. >> he always does. thank you, kelly, and dom. welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen stocks are under pressure. nasdaq is the underperformer today, down a full percent as we head into this final hour of trading. >> i'm michael santoli in for wilfred frost. big cap tech is ticking lower. things like apple, microsoft and nasdaq are weighing on s&p 500 the material sector no