from the september meeting >> 1% decline though on the s&p today and we got another down week second in a row for the nasdaq and we're starting to see real weakness and it is kind of widespread next week seasonally is another weak one >> it is the week after, pretty weak. have a great weekend that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. live from nasdaq market site, this is "fast money. tonight's lineup -- tonight, tech gets wrecked. facebook, google, apple, microsoft, all handing in big losses today so is the tide turning on tech plus, we're gearing up for a big week of earnings we'll break down the ones that need to be on your watch list. and later, phoning home. something just happened in housing that hasn't happened

since e.t. was the number one movie at the box office. but first, the chart master says there could be trouble brewing as the s&p 500 hands in its second straight week of losses carter >> sure. well, in a way, it's amazing because a lot of stocks are down 10 and 20% from their highs and yet the s&p is down only 2.5 the first chart, it's the one anyone can draw. that i can draw. everyone's entitled to draw. it is the chart of the s&p with the trend line in effect since the pandemic low now look at the second chart what's happening is we have been ascending this trend line and it is very close to on the short-term chart, the 50-day moving average, but you'll see that every time we've dipped, we've bounced quickly. this time, we're dawdling. biding time.

not bouncing it's something known as a diamond formation. well, take a look at the third chart. this is without the trend line and it's trying to annotate or highlight this sort of debate. you get your drawdown. not much and now there's a stand off. should i buy the dip as i've done every other time? this is different. so that formation, there are some rules to this, if you will, rules of thumb and let's talk about them next chart a measured move from any formation, whether it's a head and shoulders or solid range with the diamond for lack of a better phrase, the high is 485 the low is 44.25 that's a 60-point range. we're right at the low of that now. in principle, a break to the downside, that's my judgment, is well, likely to take you exactly 60 points lower. look at the final chart. so a measured move, a move

that's the same as the width of the diamond would take you down 60 points from the low point or 43.65. not that much. that's 5%. what that would take you to however is about where the 150-day moving average is and then we would have a peak to trough decline of roughly 7.5% it's my judgment that's what's coming >> carter, thank you pete, what's your take it was carter's judgment the market goes lower. what's yours >> it certainly could, mel i always track as you know the volatility index and i've been watching it all year we started at 25 pulled back, then spiked up over 40 pulled back again. i just continue to look at the volatility index in terms of where are we right now with the volatility index in terms of can we get over 20 can we sustain over 20 we have not been able to do that and i think we've had a very healthy rotation all throughout the year, quite frankly, where you look at materials are

leading then it's energy, then it's technology. maybe it's semiconductors. maybe it's housing it could be any sector as we take a look at those sector, most are very close to the highs where they are coming off from so does it make sense that there's a pause right now? i think so and every time i look at the volatility index and it spikes over 20, lately over the last two or three months, it can't stay up more than maybe 48 hours before it pulls right back down again. so for my money, i still continue to look at that index and it's telling me there are different leadership all the time and because of that, i think when we get back in those teens, i think you can own very inexpensive protection to the downside, but i continue to be bullish about how the market's moving because of that healthy rotation >> steve, what's your take >> yeah, so carter touched on a couple of things pete touched on a couple of things starting with carter, if i look at a chart of the s&p cash, or

the s&p as carter was looking at, i capture the same thing he started off the segment saying anyone could draw that chart. it's basically up and to the right. we see the same laddering. we see the same spreads between the 50, the 100 and the 200. where he finished off is what i liked about it he said we're really only talking about fractions lower. so if you're talking about fractions lower, the peak to trough would be about 7% i believe he said. if i look back to the chart from october to november, of 2020, it was 8% peak to trough. we touched that 100-day. that's what he thinks is going to happen. it's possibly due to happen. i see the same thing but when we're talking about where we are right now, we're only talking about a handful of percentage points. nobody on this desk and nobody really in the trading world is going to be able to turn around their ship that quick.

even for a 7% move, it was a handful of days that we were down below the 100-day moving average. so you can't react that quickly. having said that, pete named the switching from cyclicals to growth you talk to every money manager, they're all doing the same thing right now. they're buying large cap they're buying utilities they're buying defensives. seems a little overdone. everyone's on the wrong side or i should say everyone's on the same side of the ship. but i do believe the biggest thing that happened today was looking at the ten-year. ten-year's ratcheting up this is the first time it's bounced off the bottom i think we're heading back to 1.5% 1.6% i know, wow, everyone put your party hats on, but i think then the russell can overtake so you're going to see that switch back into cyclicals again, but that could be trouble for the overall market

>> you saw the action today. we saw the nasdaq 100 underperforming the nasdaq so really big cap technology being impacted by this move in rates. karen, do you feel like this is going to be the story going into the year, into the end of the year in terms of this tug of war? rates go higher. tech has trouble the overall market has trouble because of the overall weighting of tech. >> we always think of the market as this monolith, but it's made of a lot of different stocks so there's a lot of things it can do well and less well. it was interesting how hard the faangs got hit today even harder than some of the higher flying names. so you know, as steve said, it's very hard to sort of trade around these things. pete can do it that's what he does. that's what he's great at. but for me to try to trade around my book to figure out when is the right time out and what is the right time back in

and did i make enough of a, did i do a good enough job trading in and out to make up what i would have to pay in taxes i don't have a lot of confidence that i would be able to do that. so a day like today is not good for me i have a big alphabet, facebook position industrials, that doesn't work either even with rates up, banks really didn't work either but i don't think things have changed materially i still think that delta's important and that if we're really seeing a decline there, then we're going to, we're going to, i think, see higher rates and higher margin. >> to karen's point, igb, the software etf, only down .7% compared today what we saw in faang. jeff mills, what do you make of the overall market in terms of where we are in this massive run going into the end o f the year at this point? >> first of all, i agree with karen in a sense that i would

have thought that the higher flying names would have got hit today. we talked about it last night. but even in growth, you want to be quality that's more faang. some of the reopening names. i think that was maybe out of step today and won't be the trend going forward. overall, i find myself agreeing with carter. i've been in this cyclical camp for some time and we've been in this momentum in the market. 40% of stocks trading above their 50-day you have the s&p you have triple q seeing really aggressive inflows, but then aggressive outflows from cyclicals. if you see this rotation, i could see damage at the index level and that's what i would anticipate going forward as rates rise, we see this rotation i don't think the damage is going to be significant because the market has been able to go back and forth successfully between value and growth just to use broad factor exposures, but i think going forward there's opportunity for you to pick your

spots. karen mentioned covid. leadership has almost moved in lock step with covid counts. i think we're likely moving into a better situation there i thought university of michigan was interesting today in the sense that the expectations component was up two points so i think consumers are starting to see that, too. so i want to look outside the s&p 500. steve mentioned small caps, the russell 2000 the average megacap stock, it's 200% above you go down the cap spectrum, it starts to come down. small cap flows were liquidated. you're seeing those recover. that's where i think the opportunity is >> where's the opportunity in your view, pete? >> when i look at technology and everybody's focused obviously on a day like today and say wow, microsoft and apple pulled back. i look at a lot of these names and i think they're in this pause space they've hit many times in the past and i think that's going to be the next level, after they get out of this pause, to go to the next

level. look at microsoft. trading around 300 for weeks now. take a look at apple 146 to 148, it's still in that sort of range that doesn't really bother me that it came off the highs. then i look at nvidia that continues to trade at 220. seems like it's been stuck there now for a couple of weeks. i think there's some bullish signs to me, mel, when i'm looking at technology that of course when you start to see those rates go up, everybody starts to move away from technology because that's been the trend to do, but i look at technology as all right, the pause is there and then i think the next level is up i don't see it being a downside push unless we start to see something that comes out with delta and with the covid-19 and all the rest of that that always is something that's going to be hanging behind us now. but if that comes up, sure, we can have some selloff, but i don't anticipate that and i think those pauses are very, very healthy >> what's on your watch list,

karen, in terms of things you could buy? >> banks, which i own. it would have to be a meaningful pullback for me to buy more banks. i don't really anticipate that happening. there's some retail that's sort of, you know, kind of been sideways to down a little bit. that would be maybe interesting. something like starbucks, which you know, not having a great week if that came in a little bit more, that would be something i would buy. that's sort of what's loosely on my list right now. >> yeah. loosely on your list, grasso, is what >> chemicals chemicals, materials i think you're going to see industrials rally. there's two reasons why the stock market's been under pressure covid and china fears and both of them are probably overextended today we had quad which that puts everything into question as far as volumes i think you're going to see those names rally back in short

order. >> coming up, the five key stocks you need to watch heading into next week which names our traders are betting on and something just happened in housing that hasn't happened in nearly 40 years what is it how could it impact the trade? we've got that and much more when "fast money" returns. icy hot. ice works fast. heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy, so you can rise from pain. (vo) this is more than glass and steel... feel the power of coand stone.rapy, it's awe. beauty. the measure of progress. it's where people meet people. where cultures and bonds are made between us.

where we create things together. open each other's minds. raise each other's ambitions. and do together, what we can't do apart. this is space for dreams. loopnet. the most popular place to find a space. flexshares etfs are built with advanced modeling. to fill portfolio gaps and target specific goals. strengthening client confidence in you. before investing consider the fund's investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully.

and there you have it— -woah. wireless on the most reliable contnetwork nationwide.tion. wow! -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just $30 bucks. sweet, but mine has 5g included. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself. switch to xfinity mobile and save hundreds on your wireless bill. plus, save up to $400 when you purchase a new samsung phone or upgrade your existing phone.

learn more at your local xfinity store today. we are gearing up for earnings next week which names should you bet on? let's find out in a spirited name kicking off, kb homes which reports on wednesday pete >> well, i just love this company, mel, and it's ten bucks off its highs. i think fundamentally when you look at this company, it still tr trades at a single digit pe. i continue the look at the supply chain their price for sales, that's gotten better. for those reason, i think this is a game that can come out and crush it especially when you look at the backlog. >> grasso, you're not so sure. >> no. i'm going to say fade this one and you know how i feel on home

builders generically i'm always or pretty much always bullish on them. not now. it's more of a strategic trade october's the worst month for kb moments in particular and the seasonality trade is huge for homebuilders and if you have rates rising, even though they're coming off a very low base, rates rising does have that effect and it's a negative head wind for kb homes and also, if we change tax policy in the corporate tax rate goes up, these are 100% domestic facing so they have the most to lose or the most to get hit on if any of those changes take place. lumber coming in was a huge tail wind, but not enough to combat seasonality. >> next on the list, nike out with earnings on thursday. jeff z >> it's a tough one given the supply chain, but item going to bet on nike because i'm still

going to bet on the consumer i saw pretty interesting research today we always talk about that xs savings number they've estimated 45% of that has fallen to the bottom percentage of owners i think that's good for a company like nike along with the continued healing in the labor market so when i think about spending growth in 2022 and consumption, i think it can be strong i am worried about what's going on with the supply chain in vietnam, the covid outbreak they've had. i think nike will figure out way to navigate around it. given the 10% drawdown, i like it i'll trade it. >> you can bet on the consumer and not nike where do you stand, karen? trade it or fade it. >> this is a tough one as jeff said the first two things he talked about were this vietnam supply chain issue. i don't know that it's only one quarter. i think they were talking about it going into next year and the valuation. it's expensive relative to itself i would say i'd evade it if

that's allowed >> i like that >> i know it peaked. kind of overstated and now it's in, but i'm sitting out this one. >> i think we have to amend this game trade it, fade it, or evade it let's get to stictch fix now. results on tuesday steve? >> so, there's so much going on here when there's so much noise around a stock, i always go back to technicals. if you go back to probably right around december, it was the month where the stock rallied aggressively higher and it was nosebleed territory. it has come all the way back in. right now. so i don't, i mean, you could make the case that maybe you're buying it at the ground floor again. there's so many things going on with the stock right now that they think they're going to turn

it around. to me, tit's a proveyourself i'd rather watch them prove it and miss the first 20% on the way up than to catch it too quick. >> jeff. >> i want to trade this one. steve mentioned it's down huge little bit more of a typical price to sales ratio at least on where the stock usually trades at one and a half times. i think at $30, it was previous resistance consistently. i would look to that price level as support and i think the reaccelerating top line growth margins still holding steady i like what they're doing with their data analytics, continuing to push that personal stock experience i'll trade the stock here. >> next up, fedex out with results on tuesday karen, you got to be trading this one, but why are you sticking by it >> because of the valuation and i think that their strategic position is really important i think ecommerce is here to stay

the valuation is too low and the bar is low now 50 points higher that, to me, absolutely trade it >> pete. what do you say? >> you know, the performance has not been great, mel. it was middle part of this last, the first half of the year when it got up over 300 i still like this company. i think they have a lot of things going in the right direction. the ground is great. that's why i own ups instead because they are the king of ground this is a company that i think on valuation, it's fair to buy it here, but i'm a little disappointed in their global reach they've had and some of the issues they have in terms of global package delivery. >> all right up next, phoning home. we will tell you what just happened in housing that has not happened since e.t. was the number one movie in america. ckig aerhiwhe. ba rhtft ts.

♪ music playing. ♪ there's an america we build ♪ ♪ and one we explore one that's been paved and one that's forever wild but freedom means you don't have to choose just one adventure ♪ ♪ you get both. introducing the all-new 3-row jeep grand cherokee l jeep. there's only one.

c'mon caleb, you got this! and if you don't, there are other options! umpire: ball! good eye! good eye! eyes are good for lots of things. like reading! be the best, caleb! statistically impossible, caleb. umpire: strike three, you're out! you'll get 'em next time! or you won't, probably won't. and it won't impact your future whatsoever! talk to us about college planning today. feel comfortable about tomorrow. massmutual.

something just happened in housing that hasn't since e.t. was number one only 29% of americans think now is a good time to buy a home that is the lowest since 1982 and get this back in 1982, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was north of 15% 1-5. today, it is only 2.86%. i'll go back to pete, you said you'd trade kb home. how are you feeling after this data point >> well, you know, i think there's a lot to be said about that, too. i think the consumers are pretty smart and they've seen prices rise a lot faster than probably expected so i think there might be a little pause, but i think the reality is people are still aggressively in the housing

market looking around and obviously price does matter for a lot of folks out there. so i could see where it might cause a pause, but i think it's going to reaccelerate and i think we'll get some of those numbers tomorrow >> may ma >> they may not think it's a good time to buy a home, but that doesn't mean they won't and doesn't mean they won't buy a new couch or fridge or crock pot. >> that's true i couldn't help but think they were wrong that was a fantastic time to buy a home if you look at what's happened to home prices since 1982, because of what's happened to bond prices, that was a fantastic time to buy a home so they were wrong now though with rates here, that's a harder question but nonetheless people do want to, you know, furnish their homes and do home projects and so i am long home depot, lowe's, the consumer in that the one who already bought a home it's a curious piece of

information though because it was so different then. >> right jeff how are you feeling, you said you wouldn't bet against the consumer >> yeah, i'm generally positive on housing so i guess my comments are more do as i i say, not as i do because i sold my house and i'm living a rental. but i think that the housing market is going to continue to be strong. didn't seem to bother the stocks today and if you look at a lot of those stocks, they're 20% off their highs. they're stabilizing around support. i know we're talking about interest rates, so still very low. i don't see mortgage rates getting away from us i think general affordability because rates are still decent if you look at the fed funds rate, it's very inversely correlated to building permits i don't see it moving soon >> it is time for the final trade now for this friday edition of fast. steve. >> i'm going to go with fedex. i think it's under pressure. it's out of favor. it looks like it's been beaten

up they hired 90,000 seasonal workers. last year, they hired 70,000 fedex. >> to the market rebel, pete najarian >> i'll tell you, energy continues to hit even on a day like today, mel, so because of that, i'm going to give you xom. i think exxon mobil's going higher >> jeff mills. >> i know nobody likes spacs anymore, but this one's gotten crushed. body it's a good value here >> karen >> yes, so steve took fedex. i agree there, but my final keade is ups li them both >> thanks for watching options action's up next

♪♪ in boxing or any other business, one day, you're gonna take a hit you didn't see coming. do you stay down? or do you get up? [announcer] and this fight is a long way from over, leonard is coming back. ♪♪

♪♪

hey there, coming to you live from the nasdaq market side in new york. we've got a busy show coming your way here's what's on deck. >> order up. mike ko is licking his chops as this restaurant gets ready to report earnings, just don't fill up on bread sticks plus, the chart master says when the chips are down you buy some more an