details straight ahead it's friday, october 1st, 2021 it's halloween month "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick, along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and as joe mentioned, it is october 1st, of course that's the start of the new quarter, the new month. it's time to take stock of how we got here. september was a rocky month for stocks if you were keeping score. the dow was down by 4.3% the s&p fell 4.8% and the nasdaq was off 5.3% the dow was the biggest loser for the quarter down 1.9%.

the nasdaq fell by 0.4%. but the s&p eked out a gain of 0.2% for the year this is the big picture here the major indesess are up. the nasdaq up by 12. 1%. the s&p up by almost 15% now here we are, the first day of october let's look at how the u.s. equity futures stand at this hour not off to a roaring start dow futures indicated down 175 points after being down yesterday 1.6% s&p down about 20 points, nasdaq estimated down by about 55 we'll see what happens treasury yields while we thought the ten year was climbing back to 1.6% earlier this week, it's sitting just at 1.48%, so back below 1.5% andrew a busy morning in d.c.

ahead, an update on where things stand now. president biden signing a bill that averts a government shutdown and funds the federal government through december 3rd. the continuing resolution is merely a band-aid as congress is debating whether to raise or suspend the debt ceiling ahead of a possible october default. president biden's economic agenda facing a setback as they continue to negotiate the president's 1000000000003.5 trillion packages, plural with an s speaker nancy pelosi said there will be a vote today now in the 8:00 hour we'll speak to senator mike braun about all of this. merck, again, two straight days with news megatirrell joins us with more. >> this is the news we've been waiting for about an oral pill

for covid-19 for merck the results are out. merck says if you give this pill twice a day for five days to people at high risk of having severe outcomes of covid it reduced the risk of hospitalization and death in the study by 48% versus placebo. these results were so positive merck said they agree to stop the study early and seek emergency use authorization as soon as possible what they saw in this trial, they enrolled about 775 patients as of the time they had this interim look at the results. and they found for people on placebo about 14% of those folks were hospitalized or died at 29 days after getting diagnosed with covid versus 7.3% for people on this drug. this is the drug partnered with ridgeback bio. that's where you get the 50% reduction in risk here these are folks with at least

one risk factor for covid, they had been diagnosed within five days so had symptoms fewer than five days and you get this drug early in mild to moderate disease, so people who are not hospitalized this was only tested in this trial in unvaccinated patients so they saw this pretty big reduction in the risks to folks. the u.s. has already ordered 1.7 million courses of this drug, paid $1.2 billion of that, merck said they can make up to 10 million courses this year and more next year it's in agreement for supply with other governments it'll be interesting to see how this gets through the fda how it starts to get used really big morning, guys. >> great. >> wow. >> we had the ceo on yesterday of ridgeback the mechanism, it's been done before to disrupt viral replication.

it's probably similar to some drugs we've used on other viruses. they had a mechanism, said let's try it here, seems to bear fruit. awesome it's oral and you don't need to have it intraveen youly administered it's great do you have any details on how it disrupts the viral replication. >> i knew you were going to ask me that. it interferes with the virus's ability to replicate this drug existed before covid and saw it had activity across different viruses. i think there was a lot of skepticism that a drug not developed it would work well against this virus pfizer is in the works with one we'll see if it works as well. right now these positive results from merck >> might use both two some day nice cocktail.

it's a friday. >> if this was a drug that was already out there, what was it used for before and if there's a rush for people to find it with people for covid, does that mean people who have used it before for other uses aren't going to be able to find it >> it hadn't been approved for anything else yet. it wasn't a repurposed already approved drug. it was something that had been developed, hadn't made it through the finish line for anything and then it was taken off the self and tested against this virus it wasn't like the early days of hydroxychloroquine where we saw shortages for people with lupus and things like that. >> in terms of these results, how do you think -- to the extent you can make them apples to apples i know it's hard, the only way to get regeneron would be in a hospital environment, but it's now being used for months on end, i would think there's some data? >> absolutely. so in studies regeneron showed

you could reduce the risk of hospitalization or death by 70 to 80% with these antibodies administered early in the course of the disease to people who are not hospitalized but you have to go to an infusion center or place to get the injections. so it's an infusion. so it's more complicated than perhaps being able to take a drug that could be maybe mailed to you, we'll see what mechanisms are worked out to get this drug, but you could take it for five days, it's a capsule. so it's the difference between an infusion where you have to go somewhere and figure out how to get it and the capsule you can take at home results for the anti-bodies were more. >> that's what i was going to say. you thought the ainti bodies wer 70 to 80% range and this is 50 >> yes

although scientists will tell you not to compare apples to apples >> it's fantastic news we have yet another quiver in the -- another arrow in the quiver, i should say, but when you only have a million doses produced right away, you can imagine there would be clamoring for this just like the ones that have to be infused and we saw shortages too. how do they determine who gets it do you have to be in extreme categories are they going to make judgments vaccinated versus unvaccinated people is it where cases are the worst? that's the problem we run into with all of these potential cures at this point? >> you're absolutely right 1.7 million courses have been ordered by the u.s. government it's not clear of that 10 million that merck says it can make by the end of the year how much would go to the u.s they say they've struck deals

with other governments and in talks to strike more and then, of course, the government has taken over distribution of the antibody drugs, so will we see that same allocation here? the trial was run in unvaccinated people, so will that limit for whom the fda authorizes the drug we don't know will it limit who the drug is recommended for, we don't know that either. the white house is having a covid briefing today, so i'm sure there will be a lot of questions about this >> it's rye bow knew cleo tide it's rna, and the preliminary, it's similar to other messenger rna, seems like it competes for the preliminary so it makes it harder to replicate the virus. i'm looking on how it was developed, interesting

it was done at emery university and two individuals, just starting to look up wendy and -- >> wayne. >> yeah, wayne and wendy holman, to totally funded ridgeback to try to fix things and looks like they may have struck gold here. >> i'm interested to see what david favor does with this, he's been talking with the ridgeback folks since before they partnered with merck i wonder if he'll have them on today. >> wayne and wendy they must be like philanthropists or something i'm doing it as we speak, as we used to say. but that's great great news thanks for bringing that to us, meg. maybe we'll have our friend the new ceo from merck as back on as we get closer to maybe

comm commercializing this. >> i'll ask. when we come back, stocks looking at additional losses to start the quarter. right now the dow future is down 175 points and then mark lizry resigning as chair of ozy media three weeks after taking the job we'll talk to ben smith about the scandal the company faces. "squawk box" will be right back zero-commission trades for online u.s. stocks and etfs. and a commitment to get you the best price on every trade, which saved investors over $1.5 billion last year. that's decision tech. only from fidelity. folks the world's first fully autonomous vehicle is almost at the finish line today we're going to fine tune the dynamic braking system whoo, what a ride!

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welcome back to "squawk box. this is a wild story if you guys were focused on it yesterday, zoom's agreement to buy cloud contact software company 59 scuttled after 59's shareholders rejected the deal it would have been the second biggest deal of the year at the price. sharehold es would have received a bump of 13% in the value of its shares since announced zoom's stock dropped, versus the drop for five9. the shareholders would have received less of a deal. the doj was reviewing the deal over concerns of foreign participation. but stock for stock deal didn't work out. >> makes sense. >> when you use your -- i don't want to say over valued stock

but when you use your stock that has gone up to buy things. >> with volatile markets on a stock for stock deal you better move quickly and see things cemented before -- >> is it highly concentrated ownership? how many people -- >> what happened is one of the big shareholder government services went out and recommended don't do it. don't accept the deal. >> five9 is that nine to five >> it's a -- i said cloud contact -- >> of course it's probably got -- it's the cloudy thing. >> they were trying to get into the customer cloud business call centers and the like using service. >> can i tell you, i became more appreciative of zoom and, you know, this remote possibility of doing things yesterday i was supposed to be two places at the same time, at 7:00 p.m. last night. >> and you were. >> one was for the lobe awards

dinner and the other was back-to-school night for one of our kids i got to be two places i set up two computers and i was at both of them. >> there were things with school, i have an 8:00 thing on a friday night but i can do it on zoom. yeah, yeah perfect. >> right >> exactly. >> it is good. >> by the way, you did it with two computers. it's hazard to get zoom going -- >> i just set up two computers. >> you can't do zoom on two windows. >> you have to bounce back and forth. i set up two laptops and it seemed like i was paying 100% to both of them. >> that's what i do here. >> you stole my joke. let's check the markets right now with the chief portfolio strategist at state street global advisers and kerry

saperstone buying on the dip has always been the smart move. do you think that's the way to go this time around, too >> hi, becky so i think yes, it depends, of course, where the stock is trading. we've had, i would call them rolling corrections that have gone over the last several months look at what retail has done in the past couple weeks, many stocks down 20 to 30%, we've seen it in energy, a lot of technology stocks, home builders so a correction isn't just about the market as a whole. the s&p has fallen 5%. if you're looking at a stock to buy down 20% and you think it's got great potential and it's going to continue to grow. i think that makes sense to buy it now but you can't just think about the market as a whole because we're in a little bit of a down trend right here and you have to be careful picking your spots. >> we'll talk more about which spots you like versus those you

don't in just a minute but you've recently taken money off the table, right >> yeah we have with the increase in volatility i want to be clear in saying we still remain very overweight on equities, we like commodities. in general our bias is we think we have a good solid consumer in the u.s. we think economic growth delayed a bit because of delta variant but likely to come back up so we still like the notion of playing these growth trades. and whether that is through i.t. semis, materials on one side and then financials we like those. and trying to avoid segments of the marketplace that are maybe not tuned into that group. but i want to stress we're overweight on growth >> the tech stocks have been under pressure recently, especially as we saw yields start to pick back up. is that something that you'd go

against if you still like technology >> i don't think yield moves are going to continue up and down and create some movements that are going to occur i think this is more about long-term trends it's more about the fact the big move you've seen, e commerce, the fact that the penetration not only the internet but it's likely going to be some constrain on supply chains so those trades rather than trying to time a macro move in rates one way or the other just to be clear, our expectation on rates is something like a 1.6 level for 2021 and we don't see much higher than two in the end of 2022 so even that would keep us invested in these assets. >> i know you've both been watching the supply chain issues closely. these are problems that don't seem to be going away. kari, what should investors do

about that, be on the lookout for, especially with earnings season coming up >> with supply chain we have to keep watching whether things are getting better we heard that there are places in the home building area suddenly there's more lumber available. and there's products that are delayed and then suddenly you see them appear for different companies. we heard from sherwin-williams, obviously that they're having troubles with coatings and delivery so again, we have to continue to monitor what's happening with companies but there's more of a problem than we had expected there's more inflation and more supply chain disruption. much of which is related to covid. so the more vaccinated people are across the world, talking about factories in vietnam, malaysia, philippines, dock workers, factories in the midwest and mexico

staying on top of that and remembering with some industries there's much more disruption than others if you're talking about facebook and google, there's not that much supply chain issues because their raw materials are mostly people. and they're also paying high wages. so there's less of a concern about what's happening on that supply side. more concern about just inflationary pressures on wages which are already high in the technology industry. it depends, of course, by industry but that is what the market is worried about right now. and when we see it come down, it's related to future earnings. earnings for the third quarter are going to be less than expected and probably the fourth doesn't mean that will be true in 2022. >> good to see both of you hope you guys have a good weekend. >> thank you >> thank you coming up, in our latest edition of 1%er problems you know how we do that, becky,

the problems of the 1 -- this is not 1% do you know what income for the 1% is? what you need to get in the 1% it's about 730, $750,000. >> i didn't think it was that much. >> that's what it was in 2018. 5%, 309,000 anyway, we've all seen the video of air rage on commercial planes. but now horror of horrors, there's been cancellations and waiting lists and staff shortages on private jets and people are mad i think it might be the .01% speaking of whom, robert frank has that story next. "squawk box" coming right back >> what are you doing?

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travel as i said, it's october, halloween month. horror of horrors, robert frank. it doesn't matter how much money you have, they have the same problems as us >> yeah, they do this is now a big industry problem, joe a record number of travelers are now flying private you combine that with supply chain and labor issues and you have growing delays, cancellations and a lack of available flights. july was the busiest month ever in private jets with 300,000 flights. normally business wouldtaper off in the fall but september and october are now also set to surpass those records. there are waiting lists for new planes inventory of used private jets is at an all-time low. there is a pilot shortage, a crew shortage, a parts shortage, even a private jet tire shortage, net and ascension have

suspended sales, net jets also pausing sales of light jet cards, fractional sales and leases the company saying the demand is the highest in the 57 year history and taxing the air travel infrastructure in ways we haven't seen for years wheels up saying it is uniquely positioned for this capacity shortage because it has a diversified fleet. but rising costs and the concerns over margins are one reason that stock is down by nearly half since july meanwhile shares of bomb bardier, those have more than quadrupled this year lots of losers here and some winners for investors. >> that's interesting there. wheels up. they have a lot of those turbo props. but the turbo props per hour that are still -- it's a big number, robert, to go anywhere unless you're flying for like five minutes

comes to a pretty big -- >> yeah. a lot of these people, like you said at the top, these are people that paid, in some cases for the jets $5,000 an hour to fly private to avoid cancellations and delays. >> who is that >> somewhere between 10 and 15,000 people started flying private during the pandemic that had never flown private before w w and the industry wasn't ready for it. >> we were trying to label them as one percenters, .1 percenters, .01 percenters what's the income for .1 1%, $700,000 a year, you can't pay 5 grand an hour for a jet. what's a .1 percenter? >> i'm not sure. to get in the top 100% in the u.s. is about $540,000 per year per income per individual.

but, you know, basically it depends on how much you fly. there are studies that show there are millions of people who could afford to fly private that can't now. that's the basis for the wheels up total addressable market theory i just don't know u, you know, f you buy a jet card for $5,000 or $50,000, that's just flying once it depends on how often you want to fly you have to make a big income to fly private. >> we were looking for what to label it a problem it's not a one percenter problem. maybe a.01 percenter problem. >> unless you're a shareholder of wheels up, then it's less than a 1% problem. >> the supply chain issues, such a broad thing for so many issues obviously it's labor in a situation like this. why now? what's happening that's drawing

labor bottleneck when it comes to pilots. these used to be premier jobs because you didn't have to work with commercial airlines where are those people going i wouldn't get to commercial airlines instead >> they are. because the commercial airlines are hiring, it's drawing people away. >> they pay more >> i think it's a more prestigious job, in some cases they pay more. the private jet pilots were getting burned out, so some of them are just leaving the industry so they're giving restrictive stock to pilots to stay. these aircraft, if they have parts problems you can't get the parts, fed ex is taking days to get there. you can't find parts, tires right now for private jets so a repair that would take a

day is taking a week, holding up the already short supply of planes. >> if the pilots would rather be at the commercial airlines than some of these places, i don't know if i want to be in those places i thinki'd rather be where there are more experienced pilots. >> yeah. they're still treated well in private aviation, especially a company like net jets. you're right everyone is looking for pilots right now. that's creating a lot of demand. >> you know the phrase, by the way, this is only dealing with what they call private business. you ever hear someone say private personal private personal is when you own your own plane this is just -- this is down market. >> you're way up, then you're .0001. you have maintenance, storage, employ the pilots -- >> i know, tell me about it. it's why i can't relate to the

other stories. it's very complicated. becky, we were talking earlier, i thought andrew was all over the scott rue den guy, i saw him everywhere >> i saw it too. when i saw it, i thought andrew and bill >> what's going on with bill. >> i clicked on immediately. >> i'm mad at this other andrew ross sorkin guy for taking the same sorkin. you can never be madonna. >> thank you >> you don't care about scott rue den and you're fine with bill ruden >> nothing going on. >> okay. want to get away for a while? who doesn't. >> i'm pleased to announce that mark lasry has joined us as the chairman of the board. my hope is with mark coming aboard it'll be the beginning. >> that was three weeks ago.

billionaire investor mark lasry was named chairman of ozy media but now stepping down as the company faces a scandal over inflated numbers of viewers -- the whole thing is crazy is he, isn't he? ben smith, who broke the story everybody's lkg abtainout, is going to be with us in just a little bit squawk returns after this. hey lily, i need a new wireless plan for my business, but all my employees need something different. oh, we can help with that. okay, imagine this... your mover, rob, he's on the scene and needs a plan with a mobile hotspot. we cut to downtown, your sales rep lisa has to send some files, asap! so basically i can pick the right plan for each employee... yeah i should've just led with that... with at&t business... you can pick the best plan for each employee

and only pay for the features they need. growing up in a little red house, on the edge of a forest in norway, there were three things my family encouraged: kindness, honesty and hard work. over time, i've come to add a fourth: be curious. be curious about the world around us, and then go. go with an open heart, and you will find inspiration anew. viking. exploring the world in comfort.

welcome back to "squawk box. the latest domino to fall in the strange saga of ozy media, mark lasry is out he said in a statement, this is quite remarkable, quote, i believe that going forward ozy requires experience in areas like crisis management and investigations where i do not have particular expertise. joining us right now is the man who kicked off what has been the story of the week, maybe the month, possibly the year, everybody is talking about it, ben smith is here, new york

times media columnist. ben, what a wild week you've had. let alone carlos watson. >> yeah. i don't think that i anticipated people would be this interested in this story. >> yeah, it has -- because it touches everything, right. it touches banking with goldman sachs, it touches the whole idea of people being imposters, the imposter syndrome and the idea of faiking it until you make it, where is the line? clearly the line has gone up how do you think that this -- what seems like from the outside, a scam went on this long and brought so many big names and big money into its world? >> first of all, i think, you know, i want to be careful it was not a pure scam there were lots of journalists and producers and employees making real content for ozy,

only not a lot of people were consuming the content. they worked hard given the level of deception they were sigh mo -- simultaneously doing but as is true with these things, particularly fund-raising if you can hold a mirror up and show people what they want to see, which in this case was a company that had kind of progressive values and slick marketing, but also totally nonthreatening politics that were basically about, you know, what we really need in this country is better conversations, right. not anything else. not any -- no anger, no -- >> right. >> you know, none of the things that you see in the rest of media right now or the rest of american politics. and i think that was very, very appealing to people like marc lasry. >> how much lying do you think went on to the investors what are you hearing obviously marc lasry stepping

off the board. he defended this early on directly to you and maybe just explain to the audience for those who haven't been following this, what exactly happened. >> the most sort of extreme and egregious thing that happened was goldman was considering investing and ozy puts them on the phone with someone who was supposed to be a youtube executive and it turns out to be an ozy executive faking a voice during the diligence call, during fund-raising. if you put on top of that that there was a show called the carlos watson show that launched in 2020, every stage they were lying to people. they hired a production team saying it was about to go on the air at a&e and those guys a month in call a&e and realize that's not true. in fact, "hoarders" is airing in that spot. they all quit. hire a new team put out it's on

youtube originals, that's not true it's the youtube original guys they're impersonating on the phone, by the way. and the web numbers and email numbers are massively inflated and everybody has always put the best spin on their numbers but this was an order of magnitude away from that. >> do you think this becomes a criminal case? i know you reported that the fbi is looking at it but it appears they raised money after this event from somebody and that could mean that they defrauded whoever those investors were >> there are two things. faking investor call is just -- is sort of -- it's securities fraud in a more literal way than the term securities fraud usually gets thrown away that's an s.e.c. civil proceeding, often an s.e.c. decision because that deal didn't go through prosecutors say no harm,

no foul. i think yes, they raised money after this, and i think, you know, the board has hired paul wise to do an investigation but i think the board is also probably concerned that they -- you know, they knew about this alleged securities fraud and didn't consider it material, didn't consider it something they want to mention to people whom they were asking for millions of dollars from i think that could be a real issue. >> hopefully we'll have an opportunity at some point down the line to talk to marc lasry about this do you think he was lied to or do you think he knew >> i have no indication that he knew and he jumped ship it doesn't seem like he feels like he's complicit but it's also pretty puzzling honestly what he was doing there. they have this big press release and this glowing axios press

release how he's become chairman of this great company. if you had spent any time talking to people in the media business or poking around the company you would realize the views have been purchased and there wasn't an organic audience i don't know, marc lasry has had so many things going on, it's per flexing as to why he has decided to do this. >> i want to thank you for appearing on what has been called the greatest morning show in the history of tv, andrew ross sorkin. "the new york times" "squawk box" is -- >> now you can take that quote -- >> the second most famous sorkin, that's great. >> he was watching earlier that's right the second most famous. >> that's the other part of this that's such a crazy part of the story, the quotes -- >> i love that >> so incredible >> if you can -- it's so funny you have to admit some of the

stuff where they paid for it and use it -- >> ben, so the audience can keep up with what's happening here, basically they were buying in certain cases paid posts on the los angeles times website and then running full page ads later in other places, citing the l.a. times as if the quote about carlos watson was written by the l.a. times. >> can you say deal book and then we can say "the new york times" >> no. no. >> why >> ben, why do you think that actually -- one of the things i was curious about, why do you think the media companies didn't realize this was happening i would go -- i would see these ads on the sides of buses. >> you know, they sort of flew below the radar because nobody -- they didn't have much of an audience it's not like any of us were hearing footsteps from ozy, better check out what they're doing.

it was just like this curiosity. they worked incredibly hard to generate these sort of questionable quotes. they really worked hard at this. this was not a casual, impulsive deception. this was a lot of work >> okay. ben we got to go what's the next shoe to drop on this, do you think >> stay tuned. follow them sunday. >> more coming okay ben smith, keep going. it's good. it's good. thank you. >> thank you there's a man who knows how to tease sunday column. when we come back, facebook grilled on capitol hill over accusations of targeting children and the impact of its products on teens' mental health we'll show you the key moments in the next hour remember, you can watch or listen to us live any time on the cnbc app

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coming up, natural gas is trading near its highest level since november of 2008 we'll talk about the energy move and the impact on stocks next. as we head to break, check out the shares of bed, bath and beyond, after a brutal week saw the stock lose a quarter of its value, it reported a drop off in shopper traffic in august. and dealing with a supy ain plch problem, what the ceo called pervasive. we'll be right back.

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2350dz prices closing out the third quarter with the sixth straight positive quarter. joining us to talk about what's next for energy, peter mcnally, industrial materials energy it's maybe not a perfect storm, but a lot of weird things have come together to create this dynamic. the bottom line, supply is not back to where it was for a lot of reasons that you can go into. but demand is just about there it's there any day, so there is a reason why the whole complex is up. >> yeah, demand is getting close. there is this demand to travel right. people have been cupid up, but a lot of the commerce that we've seen drives diesel demand. so trucks have been maneuvering archbishop, delivering goods to

people's homes and overseas and things like that so, you know, that's been encouraging. however, on the supply side, the year began with the saudis making a unilateral cut of a billion barrels a day. inventories have been falling since the last year. the dynamic has changed. meanwhile, there is just no incentive for u.s. suppliers to grow production. some of it is driven by you know shareholders who demanded more dividends and buybacks, but it's clearly not putting it in the ground so as long as opec continues on this path of really gradual supply increases, the market is just getting tighter at a time when demand is recovering. >> peter the u.s. producers and actually the multi-nationals that are under the enormous pressure from black roc and

others, other woke i don't know if i should call them woke esg, blah blah blah, you know fossil fuels are a dead end. it's going to be 20 years and if we aren't careful, we're going to end up with lines like the uk if they don't produce anymore, if they stop producing and just give buybacks and dividends, how much of it is, is it just trying to cow tail to the pressure that they are getting to stop producing fossil fuels >> well, it's a mix of things. the interesting dynamic in the u.s. is that supply has gotten more concentrated. right? we've seen a wave of mergers and acquisitions over the last five to seven years, it's made companies like occidental, chevron, et cetera, become a big force. shale began to with a lot of

independent companies. these things have been taken over by much larger companies and they have to make capital allocation decisions you know, i would highlight the recent sale that shell is selling their asset in the permian basin for $9.5 billion to conoco philips. what are they doing with the money? 7 billion is going to dividends and buybacks and the balance is going to shore up the balance sheet. it's not being reinvested. this is what shareholders want it's an argument that exxon has made that they can give the money back to the shareholders you can decide as a shareholder, how you want to reinvest it. >> we used a monitor replacement production, it would matter when they weren't replacing what they were producing are we setting ourselves, where do the winds stop blowing somewhere and people didn't have

heat ore air-conditioning? and in this 3.5 trillion if it finally passes, it subsidizes prices that probably aren't market ready. >> they're not ready for prime time are we going to end up with a shortage, a permanent secular shortage because of where we're headed here? what does that look look $200 a barrel gas lines? cold winters >> well, there are two different things, have you the power market, which is one thing then you have the liquid fuels mark, which sends to be transportation the good news, if there the a misunderstanding there is spare capacity in the oil market right. in early 2020, we had a market war between the saudis and u.s. supply is off its highs. those barrels can come back and

support this power is different you know, to your point that the wind didn't proceed in europe and that had to be fed, you know, the difference had to be made up with natural gas and coal and we're seeing different things that's a different dynamic and it's not really an areawhere the exxon mobiles and chevrons of the world play. >> is all right. >> just a lot of trends, none of them good for fossil fuels but we're not off them yet. >> it requires investment. i point you to some deve developments. >> we have to round up they tell me we're over, we're getting a power round-up possibly is that because of the wind? the wind stopped blowing over there. becky, for suvs. >> we will talk about it all the co2 that you are expelling. coming up, speaker pelosi vowing a vote on infrastructure day as

she left the capital jt teusafr midnight we will bring the latest on the battle within the democratic party next zblemplts

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but uh-o, stocks under pressure again. a big crunch from computers to autos. a number of industries continue to have major supply issues. what this means for consumers and investors. a government shutdown avoided for now. there is plenty of drama in d.c. today, everything from infrastructure, taxes and spending plans him we bring you up to speed as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right n now. >> good morning, welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc him i'm andrew ross song with becky quick and joe kernon on this friday october 1st. we start lower 112 points down on the dow the nasdaq opening 32 points lower. a couple big headlines, though to bring you this hour, because

the hour was near last night lawmakers avoiding a government shutdown, president biden signing a bill that funds the government through november 3rd. however, there is still no agreement on an infrastructure bill there has been action on the federal debt ceiling both of those issues very much on the table a conversation will persist for better or worse. meantime, walt disney and scarlet johanneson after all that, they've settled a high profile lawsuit. that dispute remember centered on the release of black widow on disney plus. at the same time it was debuting in the theaters. she said she needed paid $50 million to reflect the box office had it been simply in theaters in terms of the settlement unfortunately, for purposes of our conversation, not disclosed. they said some nice things about

ooeft each other if you were deadlined. hard to know, where do you think that landed? but it became a high profile issue. before other actors paid similar claims, zoom video to buy contact center operator 5, 9 has been called off after 5-9 shareholders failed to terminate the deal they will continue a current partnership. it was given the way the stock of zoom has traded, which is to say down, the premium had only disabeard e period but gone down materially >> now to this morning's market movers, dom chu, is this early it's about right to see you? >> just about the same time, in this first part of the 7:00

hour, maybe sometimes the first part of the 8:00. >> on the greatest morning show in the history of tv, says you and me. >> and andrew and becky. >> it's been could that. >> i will say it, the pest morning show in all of television okay as we counted out three-quarters up to date our belts with regard to the markets overall. we have been talking about since the lows of the pandemic, where the real outperformance has been in the value-oriented names, the buns that got the most beaten up during the virus pandemic and recovered the fastest. generally speaking, it's called the value trade. i put up go etfs, it tracks large capital, 1,000 stocks. the orange line is the one that attracts large cap russell 1,000 growth stocks. the white line has been handily outperforming for the better part of the year all of a sudden we're here for the first half of the year, real

outpe outperformance remember it converged and growth reasserted itself again, now growth and value converged and value has maybe outperformed a little of that growth trade. so as we focus on those large and peck ga cap tech and media-type companies and the weakness just in the last week or so, that's going to be a key focus for a lot of traders at value versus growth trade. speaking of those megacap technology stocks. these four, in particular, will get some attention from traders out there. amazon, facebook, alphabet and snap the reason why is analysts at rbc initiated coverage at a lot of the big internet names. these are the four they cited everything from total address of markets for certain of these companies macro-trends in advertising the interaction these folks will have with each other

basically all said and done. to close things out. check on the covid treatment, merck on news that their anti-viral reduces hospitalizations, you see merck up about $35 or 7% meanwhile, other treatment makers like regeneron is down two or three-quarters percent. then at least the vaccine complex we'll call them, moderna down 4.5%, biontech pfizer's partner about 4.5% as well a lot of movement. certainly one to watch in terms of that growth value trade, reports as we head towards the fourth quarter, it seems a long time for the markets so we'll

see if it's played a catch up and people buy the dip >> that's weird they're down >> the market is down. it's weird. >> some of these guys, these three in particular. >> 4%. >> remember how much of a run, moderna has one of the best performing stocks. >> it makes no sense, you will still need the vaccine >> it's 95%, andrew. i didn't think they were at the domino, thank you, sir >> you got it, guys. >> meantime, we got big news inside cnbc, our jim cramer delivered to your inbox. jim will be accepting daily e-mails, writing for the website and appearing on videos online to give you insights into the market will you have a front row seat to what stocks jim is trading in

his charitable trust he will tell you about his winners, his losers, jim will be joining us later to tell us how you can sign up and find out more cnbc.com/investing club or point your code to the side of the screen, it will take you right there. literal little you can do it right now if you want coming up, when we return, some very big news from merck in the battle we will bring you up to speed and we will hear from dr. scott gottlieb first let's go to a break. check out the futures right now. the dow is down 67 points. the nasdaq opened up by 8 points the s&p 500 off 8.5 points you are watching the one and only "squawk box" on cnbc.

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. welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. merck announcing a study shows its covid pill cuts the risk of death and hospitalization by 50%. it's pretty phenomenal meg tirrell is back. she has the details. hey, meg >> hey, becky. these were the phase 3 results we were waiting for, the first covid-19 pill in a large study it reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 48% when given twice daily for five

days to people with one risk factor for severe covid now the results were so positive merck says its independent data advisory committee recommended stopping early in consultation with the fda they decided to do that and will seek emergency use as soon as possible they measured that 50% reduction is they have about 775 patients enrolled as of this interim look they found that 14% of plashts on placebo were hospitalized or died one month after their diagnosis with covid that compares to 7.3% with people that got the drug so there is a real reduction in risk there now in terms of supply, the u.s. ordered 1.7 million courses for 1.2 billion. merck says it can make 10 million by the end of the year so we'll have to see how this gets through the fda in this trial, it was only unvaccinated folks will that be the indication where this is used

will it be used more broadly all of these are questions left to be answered the drug looks to work they also said in terms of side effects and tolerability, it was similar to placebo, guys >> i saw you tweeting some of this stuff when we have been talking about these anti-viral pills, we consider it the closest to tamiflu. i never thought it was all that useful because you had to take it a couple days within symptoms, if you don't, it's useless. if you do, it cuts off a couple of days. this is much better and much mer relevant something that can actually work part of it has no do with how quickly you have to take it, soon but not nearly as quickly. >> reporter: yeah, i was looking up the study results on tamiflu. you see it online, you look at the prescribing information. you see you have to take it within two days of your flu symptoms and if twice it helps

you feel better 1.3 on average you have to take it within the first five days of covid stim symptoms and you have to be in those groups and you can release it by dying by almost 15%. they said this is the biggest effect they've seen for an anti-viral in a respiratory disease. >> one more quick question obviously, you understand why they want to stop the trial? you want to give people the drug instead of the placebo so they're not dying or winding up in the hospital? what are the impolitics in terms of if you stop the trial, how much harder is it to find other information to expand the usage? >> well, typically, they they swould stop with all the considerations in mind in fact, they have an intimlook, after they have the cutoff, they kept enrolling. they've enrolled a few more

patients beyond and there will be more analyses and we'll see where the final information shakes out certainly, all of those things would be considered about whether to stop a trial. here the balance was just so much in favor of this drug showing a real benefit, the decision was made it wouldn't be ethical to continue giving people a placebo. >> makes a lot of sense, thank you. dr. scott gottlieb is here conveniently for us. she a cnbc contributor and serves on the board of pfizer and ill lum new, his book uncontrolled stress debuted at number five on the "new york times'" best seller week this week i have a couple things, doctor, we just heard, i thought the same thing becky did it's like wow, i have a placebo,

now i'm dead that's a problem you have pointed out many times there is going to be no unvaccinated people. somehow they found 700 people that haven't been vaccinated but as we go forward, it's going to be hard to do some of these te tests. >> well, this was a global trial. they have a big data set they can collect a large safety data set this is a phenomenal result. this is a profound game changer to have an oral pill that had this kind of effect, this magnitude in patients of high risk who are already symptomatic. if you moved it earlier in the line of care on patients who were exposed and aren't symptomatic or at great risk, you will see a greater result. so this is quite profound and the other thing i just would point out is the team behind

this drug the team behind this wendy holman were the team that invented the successful team behind ebola so this was a good drug development, drug-hunting team but this is a at the nominal result remember we have two other drugs, one by pfizer, we may have multiple therapeutics that can be taken at home to prevent covid disease. >> what's the profile? it looks good. what's the most common thing to worry about, anything? >> look, there were things that came up clinically, in the human trials, the profile looks clearance i have not seen the underlying data sets the reports are this looks clean, remember this will be a short-term administration. you will be taking it for five

days, programs even shorter if it's used in post-exposure propohylaxi prophylaxis. the safety profile is generally pretty good the margin for safety issues is much broader. >> scott, fair or unfair to compare the efficacy to regeneron? obviously, you need to go to hospital to get regeneron, but it looks in those case, the efficacy is 70% plus, is this an apples and oranges in which we shouldn't have that conversation >> well, you can always have the conversation i think clinically it's apples and oranges. we will have monoclonal anti-bodies that can be delivered in a doctor's office subcutaneously that will make it much simpler the bottom line is these are targeting very different mechanisms so you can use them together if you have a high-risk patient

who comes in the hospital with covid disease with symptoms and risk factors you may use this drug and the monoclonal anti-body and get a more efficacious drug in combination. it's will be a therapeutic event. i'm sure they will be studied in combination if this judge is eventually authorized. i believe it will be in high-risk patients so it's just another arrow in our quiver it's really the top line result, it's a phenomenal result for an orally developed drug taken at home that hay pierce to be a safety profile. >> the biggest downside is we've purchased 1.7 million doses of it everybody will want this if you get sick, you are going to think, this is what i'd like to take. it will be hard to get like it's hard to get the other monoclonal anti-bodies and regeneron. all of the things you talked about sound amazing. it will not be given to patients who have been exposed because there will not be enough for the

people who really feed it, at least not for a while. the other thing is the study was only done on unvaccinated people does that mean that the fda will only approve it for use in unvaccinated individuals and is that almost offering an additional incentive to people who haven't gotten vaccinated yet saying i don't want to if i don't want to, meaning i can't get this pill. >> depending on the fda's confidence, you can see a broader authorization. there is no reason it would be authorized in the narrow population in which it's studied. you'd be willing to extrapolate the anti-viral will appear at other settings as well i don't know how broad the agency would be willing to extrapolate. they have been willing to extrapolate in similar circumstances. in terms of supply, merck said they will produce 10 million doses, they will ramp production pretty aggressively. this is a small molecule drug through manufacturing means. it's not an anti-body where you

need special facilities. so i don't think there will be a shortage of this drug. i think now that merck has this result in hand, they'll start partnering with other companies to produce a lot of active pharmaceutical ingredients >> lipids will make it much easier i do think we've seen some before, scott. others are working on a prohase everyone hibtor. it doesn't mean they can't work on a cocktail. there was a piece about something you said again and again and again, covid will be not an epidemic. a pandemic, where enough people have seen it and have natural or vaccinated immunity. it's something we have to deal with all these therapeutic whether goelt l gol there soo-- will ge there sooner

>> you may see these drugs used in high risk patients, where the drugs can be synergistics. in low-risk patients, a lot of these drugs might be monotherapy as a propohprophylaxis. any drug that has this dramatic reduction in death in patients who had symptomatic disease, they had advanced disease, you could surmise that i think it's fair to ppostyoulate if you mov it normal in the course of care smr when do we get to where we say covid, it's around, i'm not worried about dying? >> i think we're getting there i said on the back independent of this delta wave, more people will be vaccinated i think once we vaccinate our children and have an anti-viral in hand. i think the psychology will chase. the other thing to point out is

we talk about the antibody, the anti-body have held up regeneron has held up in terms of manufacturing anti-body that have not been outsmarted by the virus yet. but they can be. if the virus changes its surface proteins you can outwhip the monoclonal anti-bodies. it tarts the machinery so there are scenarios where you can lose the anti-body and have to reformulate it. this oral drug will still work it's a nice thing to have. it's a nice therapeutic to we've long talked about having an orally available pill that could inhibit viral replication. it looks like that day is arriving >> thanks, scott it's a great news today. >> thanks. once again his new book is called "uncontrolled rage. it is amazing that this individual wayne and wend can i holman hench fund, maybe this is an okay hedge fund is this an okay hedge fund you

think if they fund a -- oh, look at this they are going to be that's awesome they will be on "squawk on the street" today wayne and wendy holman >> this is impressive. scott has been talking a while he said it would happen one day. i think think it would happen this soon. this is incredible news, so strong that they had to stop the trials because it's unethical to give placebos instead of giving them the actual pill. >> the way the viruses work. they all need preliminaries. they all have the same, you know, things that we have done in the past, tried it on covid, you are likely to have, like doing the protease inhibitors, one of the big landmark. >> what scott said about them being able to knock this out before they get people to manufacture it that's fantastic news. it can go around the globe this can be really helpful really quickly

anyway, when we come back, f facebook grilled on acitionation iss of targeting children and the impact on meantal health is outrageous first, though, some market trif combra for you among the worst performers of the third quarter, the cannabis alternative harvest etf down 30% during the period. it was led lower in part by pro generation it was down almost 49% canopy which was down nearly 43%. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc >> hey, coach prime... i think you've got what it takes to wear the aflacket. style, charisma, and a smile, that's a 21 out of 10! [aflac!] you know, aflac can help keep unexpected healthcare costs

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yesterday was a pretty rough die for facebook or capitol hill lawmakers grilled the global head of safety over questions of instagram's impact on the mental health of teens as well as efforts to build more products for children >> i want to be clear that this research is not a bombshell. it's not causal research it's, in fact, just -- >> well, i beg to differ with you, miss davis. this research is a bombshell >> in fact, with this research, we found that more teen girls find instagram helpful >> lawmakers also accuse facebook of using similar tactics to the tobacco industry when it comes to targeting minors a facebook whistle blower is expected to testify next week as the investigation continues.

guys, i'll ask you real quickly, andrew, we were talking about this earlier this week, is this a victory? a victory for now? the idea they were pausing this product for younger kids i think you are probably right they're still going to do it they're trying to make it look like they are talking to all of these groups first i don't know i think they face tougher resistance than watching the glialing yesterday. >> i don't know, do you you see the other part of it, which is astonishing how much our elected leaders don't understand what they are talking about >> they're talking about it's actually like an actual product? >> right. >> he has no idea. just the whole thing, look, i think there is lots of issues with facebook and instagram and lots of issues about the mental effects that these things help

and they do create then the question is what do you do about it? >> the complimentary carton of marlboros when you sign up for instagram. i think that's taking it, you see people were comparing it to try to get cigarettes introduced to kids when they're young >> look, tiktok is doing it, all the others, when you rely on it, everybody else is doing it already. >> they weren't offering it. >> benioff started with that comparison in davos, because he said the first time he ever said it was on the stage, i was pod rating the panel i don't think people didn't understand what he was saying back in 2018, i want to say. maybe '18 or '19 people thought there was a personal beef he had but i would say he called it, because i think there are issues i don't know if it's exactly

with cigarettes. marlboro lights. >> the journal put out a lot of the pages of internal research they were given, you can look at the internal research yourself and make your own decisions on some of these things but it does look like they knew full well most teen girls. the majority of teen girls felt worse afterwards if facebook says that's not the real data, show us, release it >> then you get back to do you want to actually totally restrict something or put the onus on parents to monitor what's going on? >> if parents can have a more sure way of monitoring it, maybe that's a better way of doing it. >> good luck coming up, futures turning around, now pointing to slightly higher open, higher. i can't believe it they did turn around what happened in bitcoin what is happening there? bitcoin is up by 8%. who knows, for a trading

session. but no jobs report today you're late. it's october 1st, friday, next week 'rat will be there wee talking investing strategies in the final month of the year nerkt

the auto industry continues to deal with supply issues phil lebeau has been covering and is covering today >> reporter: hey, joe, we're not expecting strong numbers when the auto makers report them because we get them on a quarterly basis. we get tested in a bit what we're expecting is for the month of september, the sales pace, the pace 12.1 million vehicles just for a point of reference. that sails rate is down 1 million from august and down about 6 million from where it was when there was the resurgence in sales back in april. it hit 18.1 million vehicles look, you can blame it on the chip shortage. you had limited auto production. not just here in the united states, but around the world the auto makers are routinely

suspending production and they did that in the third quarter. they'll continue to do it in the fourth quarter we get these notes almost on a weekly basis this plan is down a week there is down to one shift maybe a shift is coming back as the supply improves. they're facing extremely low inventory. look at general motors, jeep, ram, all struggling to get their hooth as they look to the fourth quarter and then to next year. we are expecting tez louisiana i doubt we get it today. typically they do it two days at the end of the quarter, which means we will get it tomorrow. they will roughly hit 200,000 vehicles they have been steadily increasing production, especially in chosen where they had a steady kay dense there, they don't break down by country

as you look at their annual deliveries most believe they will be delivering between 840 and 850,000. there you see the increase it will represent compared to 2020, which is a half million vehicles we will get september and q3 reports later on this morning. do not expect much nobody is expecting much in the industry there is just no vehicles out there for people to buy. >> we understand the chip shortage, component shortages, all that stuff when cars come from abroad, do they get stuck at ports like frank holland has done a lot on these. >> right, they can >> congestion, at ports things are stacked up so would they say, i'm speaking from personal experience here because i can't get this car up, it's like in germany somewhere at port. they won't send it out >> somebody is driving it around in germany >> better not be

if you go in reverse, does it take off the mileage like on ferris buehler >> ferris buehler. >> does it take it off >> no, i don't think it does >> i think the port is one big mess, supply xains chains. >> it is a mess. >> and logistical bottlenecks at all the ports. >> yes 100% look a port issue is not as much as an issue as chip manufacturing. most auto makers the majority they sell is in the country where they're building so for the united states majority, what sold in the u.s. is built in the u.s. or in canada or mexico those are rv vehicles. you have a good example that are imported they're running into the same delays you see with every other item that is slow coming across or getting into a port >> all right phil le beau, thank you. >> not specifically battery problems in this case, though,

are they >> let's talk about the broader markets, chief investment strategist at icapital and senior strategist at lpl a couple things going on, first of all, the beginning of the month, we have this new knew, i wonder if that will drive the market any meaningful way given what seems to be quite positive news at the same time, bitcoin moved up today in a sort of remarkable way. up about 7%. i am always trying to figure out. we say it's uncorrelated correlated there is some correlation. anastasia, i don't know which piece you want to take first >> i'll take the merck and growth expectation piece first i expect that there may be a little bit more tactical technical downside to this market but that's going to reverse itself to the upside over the course of q4 the big reason i say this is

whether it's the merck announcement this morning or the vaccination rates that are progressing globally whether it's vaccines for kids being available. this is going to lead to further reopening the reason we were talking about supply cane issues is china shut down, malaysia did. there are so many destruction we had to contend with. as we have better means of dealing with this pandemic it's become more of on endemic rebound and that's a reason to be concerned that's the reason i'm optimistic for q4 seasonality is turning to be on our side because we know that the market is up 78% of the time in q4 since 1970 and in the last 20 years it's been up 4.5% on average in the negative. it's about 7 >> octobers can be octobers to remember not always in great ways,

though we just were talking to the head of gdp, he said, put your seatbelt on. are you putting your seatbelt on >> look i will say near term the fact we didn't hold the 100-day moving average the fact that we are not technically in oversold levels that gives me positive, there may be a little further downside the good way to measure that is maybe there is another 5% down to the next stopping point the 200 day moving average i am watching it i'm not sure what triggers it. i'm watching it. but at the same time, i'm not going to say, let's sit on the side lines, i think there is tangible things investors can do him one thing i will point to, for example, is in the options market if you look the volatility is blown out so much on the put pricing. you can sell that put, monetize that volatility and buy the call option, which is very cheap relatively speaking. i think there is things you can

do to position for a little more downside in october and an eventual rebound into your end >> ryan, what do you think of th that >> there might be money on the side lines i was looking, it's suggesting we are highs in terms of stock ownership is at a 7-year high. >> the truth is this, right? if my bengals can be in the first place in october anything is possible we finally had a 5% direction for the first time in nearly a year i agree, there could be more weakness, i think october gets the bad rap, the last 20 years, the last 10 years. since 1950, the seventh best month. what is it it's the most volatile month in october than any other month so the truth is this could there be more weakness yes. the fourth quarter is stronger i'll leave on this, up six

quarters in a row on the s&p 500. barely last quarter. when you look at what happens after that, the next quarter has been higher six out of seven times, two quarters later higher every single time. a year later the s&p up on average. this is a major structurable market with improving economy which fiscal policy monetary policy, use this as an opportunity. we like the cyclical value with the economy, we think it's a sign, small caps, industrials, materials, financials. those are prime to have a good fourth quarter like they did last year. >> they didn't cover, they didn't come close it was like a tick i'm still not on board >> a win is a win. >> i had jacksonville. i was happy. >> ryan, too much heartache. if you can own one or two stocks, what would you own right now? >> well, individual equities

i will say this, we do like the banks and the regional banks the yield curve steepens, inflationary improfls. the banks are a favorite area right now. >> thank you both. appreciate it. >> thanks. >> thank you. when we come back, tech watcher gene munster and what effect investors could be expecting in the fourth quarter. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box." this is cnbc and we'll be right back like jack. he wanted a streamlined version he could access anywhere, no download necessary. and kim. she wanted to execute a pre-set trade strategy in seconds. so we gave 'em thinkorswim web. because platforms this innovative, aren't just made for traders - they're made by them. thinkorswim trading. from td ameritrade.

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coming up, tech stocks hit hard this week we will tell you about the prospects in the fourth quarter. closely followed industry gene munster that's next. first as we he ed to break, check out one of the worst performers in the third quarter. palladium dropped 32%. the worst in 13 years. they are impacted by production cuts and chip shortages. this is reducing demand on catalytic converters stay tuned rabbit, rabbit, rabbit you arwahie tcng "squawk box" on cnbc.

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big tech under some more pressure this morning. those names down about half a percent across the board of course, it's been a pretty rough week for the nasdaq and big tech stocks so far take a look at the stumbles, microsoft and alphabet down 6% alphabet 6.7%. joining us to talk about it is gene munster, founding and managing partner this makes sense, we did see yields start to rise that has people thick, okay, just like winter is coming

time to get outof technology do you buy into that thesis? >> meantime, i do, becky, absolutely in part, because of the debt ceiling, in part, because of inflation. i want to zero in on the debt ceiling aspect of this a lot of theory you this is going to play out. i start my view with the belief that the parties, democrat and republican parties, are far away from each other. there is a fortified gap between them and i think that the most likely outcome with the debt ceiling, this does impact big tech is they will be best case a downgrade sof some of the u.s. debt, at worst case, at fault, that's how far the lines have been drawn between the parties if i'm correct, that would be a negative for i think the tech stocks, in part, because it adds a sense of uncertainty and, of course, you know how investors think about that then there is the inflation piece. i do believe near-term rates are going higher

i think longer term they go lower on a different camp, so i just frame the conversation to answer your question, i think near term tech investors should yield a dosage of caution here i don't want to miss the long term we need to capture the long term, too. which this i think will be a buying opportunity because these companies are fundamental to how we live our lives. >> gene, not all these companies are the same we should point out the distinctions there are a lot of concerns for things like supply chain issues. maybe that can be an issue for somebody like an apple or amazon and tesla will throw them into the mix. throw them into tesla, too they may be eight manage it as they have to this point. but when you start looking at other companies like a facebook, they got dragged before capitol hill with the concerns about instagram and beyond which are your favorite? which if any of them are you a little more concerned about? >> it's a pretty easy decision for me again i think for a large part of

investor's portfolio it should be anchored in, companies that you can sleep well at night. these are ones that are inseparable to how we will live our lives. apple to me is the clear beneficiary here i think not only the hardware, software and services element to their business, you know, 5g you have i believe strongly within the next year, we will see augmented reality. a mixed reality, we will not see that for purchase. i think they will reveal that. i think when you look at the auto opportunity with apple, the earnings power, i think this should be a $200 stock then i think there is a varying degree of confidence with the rest of that i want to say one quick thing on facebook you talked about some of the issues. this is not new to facebook. over the past few years ago there have been many events we say this is the beginning to the end. the reason this stock essentially holds its grounds is they have something that no other company can replicate.

that's a global direct i i think facebook is a company that even though i believe their product at its core is toxic to our mental well being. i think that stock surprisingly does well over the next few days >> that's a pretty tough statement. are you toxic to your core to our well-being however, there is an upside to the stockmarket for the stock perspective. >> i think that's the unfortunate reality. i could add othere adjectives. i try to be as measured as possible but i see this company has addictive behavior i think we've seen it in the usage numbers. when people use a product. after they use it they say they don't feel better about themselves, they continue to use it more. i think that is probably definition of what is, unfortunately, good investment, but probably not good for us more broadly >> i'm less concerned about what adults choose to do with those things more concerned what kids, younger kids get put into the

mix with these things. in terms of apple, this is trading at $141. you safe you see $200 bucks, that's upside of 40%, north and that is on what time frame that's a big move for a very big mark cap stock already >> it is i see this over a one-to-two year-time frame. i think the reason i get a wide gap that one or two years is some uncertainty around the debt ceiling. what is inflation doing and rates in the near term that will impact how fast we get to that i think at its core, it's not a stretch to think that this let me rephrase it i think it's reasonable that apple can achieve 2.5 million. it's a 28 times multiple on 2023 earnings we will be thinking about that very soon. as i mentioned, some of the other big picture drivers here, too. and i would just add this is that for years investors have had a little bit of a negative

vice towards apple given their hardware business. i think if you look at how the world is progressing, this acceleration transformation, work, learn, remotely. all how we feed their products they do something bringing hardware services toke, i think will reward investors. >> gene, you say it all so calmly you got to listen closely to hear the zincers there it's great to see you. have a good weekend. >> thank you >> andrew. coming up, thanks, becky, a government shutdown, it's been averted at least for now e r wk.e is still a lot up in thaiinal we -- washington. we will get more with mike braun in the next hour tending hives of honeybees, and mentoring a teenager — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you help others. so you can live your life.

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good morning welcome to the beginning of the fourth quarter futures have turned around we are now projecting to open higher following the worst month of the s&p and nasdaq in a year-and-a-half and some big breaking news in the fight against covid-19, merck saying they cut hospitalizations and deaths by half here is to even better news, the medication, it's a pill and congress is managing to avoid a government shutdown, but the bipartisan infrastructure bill is still up in the air in

washington as the haggling goes on the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm joe concern none, along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin the u.s. futures, after i said rabbit, rabbit, rabbit did you know about that? rabbit, rabbit, rabbit are you supposed to say it the first words out of your month on the first of every new month kids do it it's from a kids' book or something. the rest of the month you will be lucky >> it's a lucky month if you start out with rabbit, rabbit, rabbit, or white rabbit, rabbit, rabbit >> really? smr yes. 87 >> but i didn't do it this morning? >> no, i didn't do it either

i will definitely do it november 1st. but the fourth quarter, i mean, i'm wondering whether it worked and bitcoin, too it just. >> i think what worked, we'll talk about sit this new merck drug that's what's doing this i. >> i think you are and once you saw pfizer and moderna down significantly, that was weird. wasn't it? people immediately see, it's a pill it's a pim you talk about regeneron, you got to like, i don't, i don't feel so good, i'm going to the hospital, getting an infusion. becky, i was telling andrew, i know what you said about tamiflu, when they do clinical drugs on a cancer drug, well, they live seven months longer, what is that that doesn't tell the sorry, for tamiinfluence you feel better, for me, andrew says it might depend on your system.

it doesn't happen. if you are getting the flu, take it you do not get it. >> if have you prescriptions to do it. which means as soon as you don't feel good. it's just not easy >> i was hoarding it a couple years ago when something was coming that was going to kill us all. was it bird flu? i don't remember which one it was. >> i've never taken tamiflu because it's difficult to get ahold of >> i knew you had. >> i'm not psyched about any of the stuff. >> you should be >> i am psych about this new pill >> i guarantee becky is a lot better >> it acts as a very important thing. if you can get access to it. by the way, with this new drug, it's very important you can take it up to five days if tam mike, influence you have to take it within days of your first system >> at least for me. >> to me it's the access

if have you five days and five days from getting covid tests, covid results, it's a lot easier getting a covid than a flu test. check this out it is a big deal, go ahead and move it up this is the big one, merck shares surge in the pre-market trading after the company announced its experimental anti-covid pill cut the risk and death of hospitalization by 50% in a late-stage study. mirk is p merck is stopping the trial, it's being seen as unethical not to give everybody the real pill instead of the placebo when death rates and hospitalization rates were twice as high as the group getting the placebo. it was developed with ridgeback biotherapeutics. merck shares was up 2.5% in the early trading on this news as people are digesting it, it's reflecting in the some stock price.

don't miss, by the way, the coe founders of ridgeback, that's coming up in the next hour on "squawk on the street" the team worked in combination with merck this is going to be something interesting to watch st it didn't just turn the market in small ways, futures were down over 150 points, now they are up you were talking about big moves on the hope that covid could be something people stop worrying about. scott gottlieb thinks we are on the way in combination of getting kids vaccinated and having this pishlgs once it's approved and rolled out, they can make a lot quickly and get it around the globe. that can be the thing that can really cancel covid. other headlines for you, scarlet johanneson and disney settled a lawsuit involving the black widow movie. she sued over the streaming service on the same day it was in theaters. a settlement was not disclosed

it's a huge case watched closely, it's something happening with every one of the media companies. disney shares up three-quarters of a percent and wells fargo will have to face a shareholder fraud lawsuit in its attempts to rebound, the judge said it was plausible statements by various wells fargo officials were false or misleading. joe. >> i think it was bird flu, looking here, 2005, because there were people hoarding it, i guess that was a part of the problem but yeah roche announced and gilead had other things too, but gilead did very well in developing tamiflu but there was a time long before the pandemic when we were worried that something could come and be a big deal and people said you should have some tamiflu. it's for each person >> it's a big deal, it's very difficult to get it and figure

it out, get access to it within two days >> or if you have it >> if you have it. within two days, you have to have the symptoms, get to the doctor, get a flu test have that doctor then prescribe it to you. all of that happens in the first two days of feeling symptoms most people aren't quick enough to make that move. you can get a covid test today if you are having symptoms you would know immediately and easy within five days be able to be on this >> sometimes it's good to have a doctor in the family >> i was going to say that >> he wasn't in my family. that itself so weird >> he was you didn't know it >> in 2005 >> following two other big stories as we begin this hour. the drama in the markets and the drama in washington. dom chu is here to talk about the former ylan mui, dom, we'll start with you joe, first of all, the tamiflu

it was h 1 n '1, what was the bi thing? the drama, you mentioned the reversal in the marketplace right now. the futures have swung from 150 point losses to 150 point gains for the dow. one thing we are also seeing is some movement in treasury yields to the downside. so we're seeing interest rates come down as the selling pressures come off so the treasury trade you can see they're a hair below 1.5%, 1.49%, the last trade there. again the move higher we've seen over the last couple weeks here has been highlighting the market effects we've seen now speaking of that many of those stocks have sold off as of late one stock in particular that's held up really well, in fact, has hit a record high in yesterday's session is netflix, believe it or not. now analysts at gugenheim this

morning are upgrading their price targets from 600 to 685. they keep their wife rating best idea label for that. they think their global content distribution and hower is unmatched. so netflix shares off fractionally right now on a year-to-date basis, that was a record high in yesterday's session. it hasn't seen a sell-off in that market volatility keep an eye on netflix as we do in this hour on "squawk. a check of ticker searches from our website from yesterday's full session the ten-ier photoyield i would just mention number one again. it's always up there so i will not mention that the stocks, though, in the top ten, bed, bath and beyond, up about 2.5%, two and a quarter percent in the pre market trade. afternoon him a popular pre-market trade, carmax down fractionally amazon.com up one-quarter of 1%.

as always, andrew, the rest of the too much 10 is on my twitter feed highlights from the top 50 as well interestingly enough only one crypto currency made the top 50. that was bitcoin we'll see if the price rises across crypt as to currencies. >> okay. at the domino. thank you, sir now we will go to washington right now. ylan mui joins us with an update on the efforts to pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill some late night work >> well, that's right, andrew, there was no vote on that trillion dollar infrastructure bill last night as democratic leaders struggled to broker a deal in their party house speaker nancy pelosi left the capital around midnight. she told reporters the two sides are fought trillions of dollars apart. she did express confidence there would be a vote today. pelosi spent much of yesterday eveninghold up in her office with top advisers brian deese

and susan rice they said democrats share common goals. they're not there yet. the compromise they are trying to hash out is not over the substance of the infrastructure bill but the timing. progressives won't support it until the social spending passes, too, you but moderates krirs sten cinema and joe manchin aren't on board with that manchin said he made clear his top line number is still 1.5 trillion that shouldn't hold up the infrastructure bill in the house. >> i'd never put the two bills together i pray to god, there is pa lot of good if both of them. we should be able to come to the right agreement. >> technically the house is not adjourned, guys. it's just in recess a. vote on the infrastructure bill is still on the official schedule back to you. >> thanks, ylan. for more on the rem e reconciliation bill and the fight over the debt limit.

i want to bring in the senator who voted against it and it passed the senate. good morning to you. help us understand where you think things really are and is there any deal to be had from your vantage point >> so i have been here a little less tan 20 years, when you say help us understand i will give you context. this has occurred over a long period of time i call democrats political entrepreneurs. i think it's on full display, maybe without the benefit of even having a finance 101 on macro-economics class. i want to be clear this has he involved over a long period of time i call that the unholy alliance. democrats roll over to republicans when we want everything for defense i think it's the most important thing we do. i don't hold it sack ro sanct. that's compressed into one-third of our bucket.

so i get here, 18 trillion in debt now we're 28 most of that has been an equal opportunity endeavor so i'm interested in reform beyond the parlor games we are paying here. the american public i think is sick and tired of it yes, they got way ahead of their skis on this one when you try to dump the 2 trillion we did recently with the rescue plan for covid, 10% covid-related. now you are going for broke with another 4 trillion that is juggling in one year a time-and-a-half what we generally spend and borrowed 23% of every year. to give your viewers just a context, that's how poorly run the federal government s. i'll close with this out of the gate. there are hardly any people here that have ever run anything, fought even a lemonade stand it's the biggest business in the

world and what are you seeing is representative how this evolved in two or three decades get where we are. >> do you anticipate the democrats will -- i imagine you do support the smaller infrastructure package, yes, or completely not >> no, i understand it. >> no, i believe you tell me, was that in the context of both of them together or is that really in the context you don't even like the smaller one? >> that's the thing about them, i think pelosi runs the show she says they are definitely linked at the hip. the way you are juggling so many things at such high altitude, that has now been de coupled so she's into a political fix if they don't get the infrastructure bill the 1.2 trillion which i like the politics in there. i voted against it because it was done on a shaky foundation of pay fors and no process a handful of vote against stuff

we like because of that that's another thing that starts occurring. she'll get something done and nothing will come to the floor until she's guaranteed to get the votes because there is enough egg on their face in total with kind of the haphazard way this sthing hthing has trand over the past few weeks. >> i will use one of andrew's questions, help us understand. i want you to help us understand is how joe manchin got in this pchlths i know senator sinema is there. there are senators in the senate, so that really kind of means that 49 senators like mark warner is in there and john tester so these people that seem sort of reasonable at times, they're there, but they're all on board. now, you know, biden got

nominated because he wasn't bernie sanders right? >> yeah. >> they lost seats in the house. david purdue lost in georgia because he won the election. but there had to havebe a runof. now everyone signed onto the bernie sanders bill basically. why? what's wrong with the other 49 why is joe manchin he said it last night. he said, look, elect more liberals if you want to get this done but i'm not one of them. >> that's because in general biden had to i think roll over to the progressive side of the party. i think they do call the shots in general and we're now in this pick him there is sinema and manchin. they generally come along. you heard joe say 1.5 trillion that will be sold as a really big sacrifice to folks like bernie and aoc

they'll get something done that's how few are left within the democratic party i think joe is in a very conservative state sinema is one that is probably purple folks like warner and john tester, who i know well. he's a farmer. they have been here long enough where if they will be in the game, they will have to mostly go along with leadership i did a bill or an amendment on the floor in the last day or so, no bug, no pay there were actually six other democrats that voted for that. i think maybe able to in total but they were in political swing states, they're up for election. that's how political this place is >> right. >> we have evolved in a way, like i say, both sides are guilty for the abuse of spending beyond our means in this thing we call the federal government that's going to lit a hard landing here sooner rather than later. >> senator, before we let you go, debt ceiling, politics are going to be played again

>> they will be and in this case i guess asked all the time why since we have been a part of it, aren't we going to vote for it we've never had 6 trillion of additional spending you need the debt ceiling forever in the history of the country that will be a wrestling match we may get some republicans if they start horse trading i think it will be mostly their own to do because they got the votes to do it >> we are watching the show. it's requested out of the box by saying it was everybody's faults, both sides >> i like the senator. >> it is a great state >> a rational state. >> thanks. >> a great state it's ohio, which makes it even greater. >> the way things work there, balanced budget amendments

the things that work across the country. local, state governments, school board, especially businesses >> thanks, andrew. when we come back, we will be speaking with the ceo of ev maker fisker about plans to have his cars proud at an american plant, iphone builder fox time is buying. plus what do we learn from facebook's grilling on capitol hill yesterday all that and more when "squawk box" comes right back. life's kinda unpredictable. like when your groceries arrive the moment you remember everything you forgot. [dog barks] or when your kids says... there's a bake sale at school tomorrow. tomorrrow, tomorrow? or when you discover art-cuterie is a thing you have to try. like now. or when you could go to the store but you also need

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welcome back to "squawk box. iphone builder foxcon buying lords town factory in ohio phil lebeau joins us with more and a special guest. phil. >> reporter: rets bring in henry fisker, you might be saying to yourself, wait a second, we were talking about foxcon now fisker henry, we will connect the dts dots for people at home. the importance of why we have you on today is to talkabout you will be having your first vehicle built at this plant in lordstown, ohio. tell me how you understand this conversation came together in terms of foxcondeciding this was

the place they wanted to build vehicles here in the united states >> absolutely, hi, bill, you know, the plan came together in the us and it's actually for our program care, and we were planning up to 250,000 of these vehicles being built a year or so we are looking for a big plan obviously, this plan can do about 500,000 vehicles a year. so it would fit extremely well one of the advantages for us versus maybe doing a greenfield plant with foxcons is we can bring them to market as a supply chain in ohio and ohio state is used to dealing with auto manufacturers. so i think it's a really good plan for us and the due diligence put together with foxcon >> when do you expect it to bear

fruit so to speak and your first vehicle here built in the united states to actually roll off the assembly line in lords town? >> so originally we had said q12024, but i think i just talked to the chairman of foxcon yesterday, he said he may be able to do it quicker because this plan is in an already state. >> it's ready to go, plug and play, meanwhile, have you your ocean. the suv that you are building with magna, the contract manufacturers built at magna's plant in europe. is that still on schedule to come out by the end of next year >> absolutely. i just saw the first body stampings, actually, the side body stampings we have a whole team going into the next prototype phase that's fully on schedule to be launched on 17th of november next year. we'll probably also that year build a few vehicles earlier than expected. but i don't want to get too

excited about that yet, but it's definitely on track. >> any concerns that the ship prices that we've seen and the fact that we now have electronic components which are so much a part of all vehicles, and certainly will be with the ocean and your first vehicle from project pair that the delays that you are seeing with chips and electronic components will filter into what happens for you as you are developing the ocean, that it may slow things down in terms of its development >> so one of the interesting things is that we actually, our cto comes from the chip industry and he was thinking about this already when we started the ocean program and the second part is, of course, having a partner like foxcon, who actually makes chips, i have been assured by the chairman of foxcon that we will not be missing chips. i am not concerned what we are doing at fisker. the chip prices has to do with

certain chips that i think are a little older and all the common factors we are using in modules. that's not something that i think will have an effect on our launch schedule. >> henrik, thank you for joining us this morning, henrik fisker, the ceo of fisker, which, guys, will be building its vehicles in ohio now that foxconstruck this deal with lord town motors to buy almost all of the lords town plan that's a plug-in operation it was owned by general motors and lords town and now foxcon. that's where you will see the first fisker model made in the united states roll off the lost. guys, back to you. >> so, sorry, phil, thank you very much. great hearing you with this. we expect to hear a lot more, too. we will jump to some breaking news in a moment quickly, look at the futures ahead of that, the dow futures up by 200 points a lot coming balk merck came out with what seems a potential

miracle cure, a pim for covid after you get it it's done so well in trials that they are going to be ending the trials they are doing right now, making sure everybody can get the actual pill instead of the placebo on this. it's has not been approved, you can see an approval in short order based on what they've seen so far that turned the futures around, too. right now, we got some breaking economic data. rick is standing by. he's got the numbers for us. rick, take it away >> yes, this, of course, can be fob for august we do that, the ten-year note has come up to that 1.5 level. here we go up .2 on headline personal income, exactly as expected on the consumption the spending side up .8. that's a tenth better than we expected and, indeed, if you look at that number, the best way to approach in is up .8 follows down a revised .10, so a nice bounce.

if you look at real personal spending that accounts for the rise in inflation. it's up .4 so, of course, we knock it down a bit. now let's get to the money ball numbers on inflation right? expenditure month-over-month inflator, that is up .4, .1 hotter than expected exactly in the rear view mirror of last month. year over year, it is up 4.3% that is, indeed, a high number going back to 1990 so we're looking at 31 years on that number and if we look at the deflator year over year or excuse me, month over month, that's up .3 if you look at the core deflator, that's up 3.6. na is a another one that is at a 30-plus year high. you are going back to the early '90s on both the deflator core and the deflator headline year over year and that's what many are going to look at so we want to watch and see how

ten-year note yields react overr however, after having such a wild ride since last wednesday's fed meeting, which didn't seem to move much then the bank of england changed all that, all sovereign debt has had a big rise, it is not out of the ordinary to take a breather in front of the weekend. so we want to watch what side of 12.5%, a nice psychological round number we close at the most technically significant areas are above and below the market on a kind of a medium view and the breakout view below the market around 139. those are the wide levels you want to continue to monitor and, of course, maybe the easy interest rates in the new quarter. we bury the last quarter and the month of september, not kind to the sovereign debt market. so we are looking at fresh investing potential, becky, back to you >> let's talk about this morning. because you know, we did see the yield back up back to 1.5% we seen equities

the dow futures move up more than 300 points from being down more than 150 to up to more than 155 right now. i think it's because of the merck news and the idea you could see a time where life gets back to normal where people aren't worried what do you think what you are seen i know it's a friday morning, this is news we are reacting to on the fly, what do you think of it all >> i think your assumption is most likely correct. we never get a memo on what investors are paying the closest attention to i think popping a pill and moving ahead on this and feeling better about life in general getting back to normal is a huge positive there has been other developments in the equity markets as well, that certainly is a biggy and it really does attest to the notion that even though we have gone through this horrible greek alphabet of various permutations, yesterday's gdp number for the final look of the third quarter was higher than the second

quarter. we are expecting this quarter that will end will have a wild card up above that 6.6, so considering where we are at and what may be lying down the road based on medicine and science as you pointed out, there will be an ongoing optimism. the one issue is globalism what we learned is the united states has to do more standing alone on its supply chain. these things take time just in time inventory was the inflating scenario, china at one point for a decade exported deflation. i think now that they are deflating again, it will be very interesting to see how that smacks of the rising pricing issues in most of the western economies. >> let's hope we are smart enough to learn these lessons, and have it stick with us. rick, thank you, and have a great weekend. >> you too, thank you. steve leishman joins us with more on the data and things we have been seeing steve, these are great numbers maybe we should bear in mind, it's not the demand that we

should be concerned about, it's the supply issues. >> it's supply, exactly right. the inflation numbers i am focused on which rick was. the math is pretty obvious, you end up doing the number anomaly. but the real number you have to deflate it by inflation and it actually rose on the core level 2, 6, 2, year over year. it rose on the headline level, 3.6, 4.3 this is what powell was talking about when he had to change his tune he sees inflation coming back down it's something that's historic for the next half of next year whereas you remember in the spring or summer, it was a story for this fall. by the way, its why later today, becky, i am interested in two big numbers coming out phil will be bringing us the light vehicle sales numbers. they're a part of what's happening with auto sales and the shortages there venltd then we have the ism.

we saw spending was higher than income and that came out of savings. we're seeing the savings rate come down 9.4% people got a lot of money from the government and other places, they're starting to spend some of that savings down as a way to keep spending high >> steve, i got something right up your alley. it's really great. number one, we're talking about a banking official, controller of the currency and number two. >> oh, yeah. >> this biden nominee, she's now a cornell university law professor. but she honestly, i thought that they were kidding. but steve, she's a graduate of moscow state university and she went there on a lenen award. number one were you in school with her at that time? number one, and number two >> no. >> i think moscow state is actually playing lsu or maybe it's a different one but is this for real

and then elizabeth warren i just read called her an excellent choice to oversee and she actually wrote something, said something in the documentary a-holes, a theory. she called the wall street banks a quintessential a-hole industry i mean, this is biden's -- >> a-hole? >> can i re1307bd in may i respond, please? first of all, i did not go to moscow i did not go to moscow state university ple met le /* me let me correct it. i want to take your joke seriously. >> that seems like to me - >> i don't, let me tell you, joe, i don't know what andrew thinks about this, buti wonder who is driving economic policy inside the biden administration? and i see people like this individual appointed it tells me that the progressives are running the show over there. and that there is many people

who supported the biden administration who believed they were going to be a centrist and those people to this point are disappointed >> what does that mean nor j. powell >> i was just getting there, exactly. the thing i wonder about is when i see progressives driving the bus in the biden administration, i begin to wonder what kind of appoint is we're going to get on the federal reserve? it's interesting if they appointed brainard, a lot of people don't think you can put a credit card between the monetary views of brainard and powell tougher on the banks the question is do you go further afield than brainard when it comes to the issue of appointing people tow the fed? >> who knew, steve >> who knew that your experience over there you may get a call from the biden administration. it's a good question

how long were you in moscow? >> joe, i became a hard core capitalist when asaw what the societies had done i know you did you may be in demand you were there for years >> the moscow bureau chief >> six years >> do you know where moscow state university is? you may? >> i did i do, yes. beautiful place. >> great quaerckrtba awesome quarterback. okay we're out of time, "squawk" is coming back right after this 's e world. loopnet. the most popular place to find a space.

. facebooks's global head of safety taking a test in us congress about the products and potential impact on kids >> good morning, senator blumenthal leading the attack during yesterday's hearing take a listen. >> facebook has taken big tobacco's playbook it has hidden its own research on addiction and the toxic effects. ness attempting to exceed the public and us in congress what it knows it has weaponized childhood vulnerabilities against children, themselves

>> for marky, that act aims to band website designs that would hurt kids and limit advertising and product placement that could impact children and teens. now, davis wouldn't say if she agreed with that particular piece of legislation that was originally introduced last year. she did say facebook believes it is time for updated internet reg lakes, despite the attack on facebook, shares ended flat that firm saying we think the company is well positioned to transition to a fuller source of online utility. the big question is who is this whistleblower who is testifying on tuesday before the same committee that is going to be a very interesting one to watch,

j joe. >> yes, we've talked about it quite a bit. i was wondering. i'm not on i don't know how you sanitize what goes on, on -- i don't know whether the parents need to be involved i really struggling to come up with what the right answer is for this because it scares me, kids that young being exposed tow that type of peer pressure and everything else. how do you make it so that it's safe >> what is very interesting, joe, is that very question facebook would answer with instagram for kids, if you are worried for kids getting on, you are not supposed to be on any social platform before you are 13 what we are talking about is kids between 13 and 17 and 18 being potentially manipulated or having negative impact from the instagram platform that's what we are talking about here what facebook is saying, is

look, having instagram for kids, that would be a better thing a top-down issue >> just being on twitter, i have an unbelievably negative opinion of myself right now. it's been getting worse and worse. yes. >> really. >> i have a really negative opinion of myself now. >> i think it rolls off. >> coming up sorry, not sorry >> we're going to ask top investor noah blackstein where he is looking to make money. stay tuned you are watching "squawk alley" on cnbc. yo ♪ ♪

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. all right. it's that time of the morning. let's check in with jim cramer what do you think about the market's turn this morning, the news we got from merck >> i think it's real we talked to one of my experts, he's been on "mad money" a bunch of times it's terrific. we had by the way ron mcclain saying the assistant to the president, the numbers down and we will see the airlines roll. i think it is great news we have to get away from the idea that you are going to the hospital if you are not vaccinated even if we don't want to necessarily promote no vaccine. this is the game changer we have been looking for, so merck up 6 can coming receivably go higher. i don't like the rest of merck's portfolio other than the cancer

portfolio. you know what, this is very, very important. >> probably worth pointing out to people it has not been approved by the fda yet for eua, emergency use thompauthorizatio. it will be a while when it's available. great news overall for getting covid under control. >> remember the regeneron trip is amazing right now but that is considered to be obviously laborious versus the pill our country likes pims, not drips. david faber has been concentrating on this forever. again merck has way under performed. if you bought merck and came in, it's a very good company with a very good balance sheet. it has under performed like a lot of other drug stocks, including bristol. the game is very excited because we do have an interview, david is right here. we have an interview with the people really doing. it's a phenomenal company that

did it it doesn't matter, pfizer we can say never did it pfizer is the one that gets credit so what matters to us is it seems like it really does work that is very exciting. >> it is, hey, jim, i know this is a big day for you we got the announcement of the cnbc investing club. we talked about it earlier i know you will talk more of this i don't want to steal your thunder, i am hoping you can give us a little bit of a tease. >> i will do something that i think everybody at home really needs, which is offer transparent decisions, tell you why i think you should do something, it's also connected with my charitable trust i can't believe i do something for the trust i do here, i end up frozen so to speak when i mention the stocks here's what matters, if you are a home and try to think what we do with day and other informatio that's available, but not really explained, you join the include. it will be the place where you find out what to do. on what is

happening at the actual moment and we also give investment ideas, we give trading ideas, we're not a trading club so to speak. but we want to show you why people are doing what they're doing. we would talk about merck and how high you should play and we talk acted scarlet johanson, what it means for disney, what we do is put it in english sometimes we make it exciting. but it's all about education it's about education and making it so that people can understand why something goes up that shouldn't, they don't think why something goes down that they think should have been going up, it's really good for this younger generation, the robinhood generation that robin generation who wants so much to have fundamentals it's the why i think the why has been lacking. the club will give you the why. >> jim, education is something you have been talking about for a very long time, we have to

find ways so people understand what they're doing and get how the markets work thank you, becky. >> i'm excited for you. >> that's what i've always wanted to do, is teach i have an unbelievable platform, is to teach. i can't wait to teach and make it so that it is understandable to educate you know me, i'll make it fun, too. we need some fun, and i can't wait i am so thrilled mark offman, thank you, this i what i've wanted to all my life. regina, my producer for mom, they and i will be doing more investing talk, and we'll explain it so many people don't know why a stock goes up a dollar or down a

dollar. >> i can't wait to see it. i know you'll talk more about it in a few minutes thank you. >> i get to educate. people wanted me to teach at the school i have the best school in the world, the investing club. you'll have more students than you possibly could t you can go to cnbc.com/investingclub, or check out the qr code. take a picture of it, and it will take you right there. we'll see more of jim in a few minutes. joe?

man, i thought my lighting was bad. noah, are you -- >> yeah, i'm here. >> i'll turn on more lights. >> first of all, i'm honored to be here. "new york times" said it was the number one morning show. >> that's how it gets started. we have this merck news, which seems to be -- i remember during the pandemic, there were certain

points that the market moves on. was this part of this morning? >> the data is no deaths, cut hospitalizations in half covid will be endemic. i don't think it's going to go away, but if we can lessen the severity on hospitals and icus and have more treatments, that's really critical. i think that's sort of what turned the futures around. you also had a terrible month in september for the overall markets. this year we've seen rotating corrections under the surface, but i think september was the worst month since march 2020, with the market down nearly 5% so we're due for a bit of oversold bounce, for sure. >> given what we saw in september, noah, is this one of those potential september swoon into, you know, continues into october to some type of low that

we see mid month >> i think everything was summarized in the bed bath & beyond conference call they didn't talk about the fed getting more hawkish or more regulations, things like that, but all those concerns cited by the company are what have been weighing on the market we're seeing spending continues to hold up obviously good news on delta overall. we can look out a bit more confidently at the fourth quarter versus september, but, you know, we've entered this world where central banks believe they can solve any

problem, and maybe they shouldn't be solving every probably, maybe the cost for a high price is a high price you know, we've become so policy dependent here that, you know, i caveat anything optimism for the fourth quarter. we've got to get out early, noah great having you on. thats it for "squawk box." we want to get to jim and hear about the whole new thing he's talking about -- oh, i have ten seconds? >> you want to use them? >> i'm going to use them up -- no, i want to hear more about the investing club >> be sure you join us "squawk on the street" is up now. move to sofi and feel what it's like to get your money right. ♪ ♪

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♪ good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla here with jim cramer and david faber america announces a treatment for covid. our road map begins with squawk, futures point to the rally to kick off a new quarter. >> in what could be a breakthrough for