increases in stock market values and real estate and stock market value rises were the biggest contributor. >> great and makes you wonder if it will go down again. 70 years ago was 19 50 been a pleasure. have a great weekend thank you for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. thank you. welcome to "closing bell." happy friday i'm slns major averages up. we are sitting at the highs of the day in the final hour of trade. >> a wild session in the right direction for once i i'm wilfred frost. good afternoon merck surging after posting positive results for the anti-covid treatment the nasdaq looking to snap a five day losing streak and

washington remains in focus awaiting infrastructure, spending, and the president biden set to meet this hour. every sector in the green today led by energy up 3%. >> followed by tech knowledge. coming up, dr. fauci joins us to talk about the big anti-viral news from merck. what it means for the battle against covid. crypto with a pop today with bitcoin inching back to $50,000. we'll talk with the ceo of ftx first mike santoli is tracking the market action meg tirrell to talk about merck and, mike, let's start with you. healthy looking intraday chart.

>> some pressure coming off after the weak close yesterday i think that the merck news this morning taken as a positive. as well as we got this extra leg higher once we saw the reports that president biden heading to capitol hill maybe so that people didn't get too negative that's just kind of conjecture and the first day of a new quarter is positive in recent quarters so we are seeing the effects. this is where we were midday yesterday and did just tack yesterday afternoon's or morning. the highs of the every day this week around 36, 4380 a little bit above here. trying to kind of gather itself here the next step down are the mid-july lows. like 4250. that's the tactical technical picture. market in general has a reset here

been talking for a while about under the surface weakness here's the russell 1000. going sideways did nothing going back to april and sort of below where we hit in early june whereas the s&p 500 thanks to the big growth stocks on an uptrend we were at the highs for the s&p, well, the stocks are falling by the wayside and now come into some kind of parody here to the point you wouldn't say there's a weird divergence going on and a sentiment in positioning reset to a neutral or maybe cautious position look at the equity exposure of the professional investment managers in this survey. a weekly survey. low neutral. as low as it's gotten this year.

so that tells you people stepped back from the market a net positive doesn't mean that last night was the low but things are tacking in the right direction in terms of things coming into better balance with expectations and what the market might give us. >> other interesting thing today does come off the back of inflation numbers higher than expected particularly in europe and really talked about that a lot in the last couple of weeks and not as much of a surprise. >> it would seem bond yields here are up a fair bit. so maybe that explains part of it i don't know what the kind of technical positioning supply demand stuff is spilling into a new quarter for treasury and been a little bit of a built in expectation for inflation and if i look at the market implied forward inflation measures they're not flying here.

>> mike, thank you see you soon mike santoli merck surging. best performer in the dow helping the whole market after the company shared positive results surrounding the covid anti-viral treatment and also news this afternoon about the next round of the booster advisory meetings. meg? >> a busy october for the fda. reviewing pfizer's vaccine for the kids we have the dates. october 14, fda's advisers to review the moderna booster the 15 j&j booster and the mix and match data please ask him about this because this is huge they're going to talk about that october 15 october 26, they're going to talk about pfizer's vaccine for kids ages 5 to 11 potentially

making it available around halloween as folks have predicted. so a lot of parents waiting for that on the anti-viral front, the first potential oral anti-viral for covid showing when you take this twice a day for five days early in the course of disease this can reduce the risk of hospitalization or death by almost 50% compared with placebo. so positive merck said the independent data committee overlooking the trial said they should stop early and file with the fda. the fda agreed they'll file for emergency use authorization as soon as possible how they got the 50% reduction is compared 775 people at the interim look and after a month about 14% of people on placebo got hospitalized or died from covid compared to 7% of people

on the drug. seeing an interesting move on vaccine makers declining merck did test in unvaccinated people in this trial but we don't know what the indication will be from the fda and u.s. health officials emphasize vaccination is still the best way to protect yourself. guys >> thank you let's discuss with evercore analyst uma raffa and discussed the pharma giant trial and the potential on the stock. >> investor focus has been on lily and makes sense but merck is one left over because of the -- no real clarity in the next big growth drive. i think this upcoming oral covid data could turn the page i like merck it is not a growth stock but i think it starts to turn a page on pipeline catalyst and event

flow. >> he joins us again now with reaction to the news so good call back then and you as optimistic about this data as everyone else seems to be today? i guess reducing the prevalence of hospitalization or death by 500 p 5 50% is impressive. >> when we mention 95% plus vaccine efficacy on hospitalizations that's as a preventive measure and this is a treatment. once up covid. it's different your question now that we are seeing that taking an anti-viral, cuts the load and possibly helps shrink the duration of the covid episode and the next question is we know it's a treatment could bit a prevention there's trials coming out knicks

year which will be really interesting thinking about -- i met someone that has covid what are the odds to catch it if i pop this pill? >> what about the pricing of this product and whether or not it is a huge profit driver for merck? >> pricing is already out there. the u.s. government contracted with merck for 1.7 million courses for $1.2 billion and look the sales estimate for next year is basically the estimate on how many infections will happen times the percentage for the presentation times $700. >> does it change the prospect for merck as a stock what happens from here >> look. there's two layers to what one is the broader market and what's happening right now and

the moment that the drug companies is a covid trade of sorts you see unusual moves and that's there but for merck more particularly for a while now the focus has been katruda to go away from them and now seeing glimpses for example there's a real chance that the pill is at least a dollar worth of merck. they do six plus right now they did a deal which could add another dollar in eps for merck and starting to see things to add support to the growth potential. >> do you think it's fair to see some of the more vaccine linked stocks sell off as much as they have today i get the arguments with flu you have treatments and vaccines and still take the vaccine but this is different with people that see it as an excuse never to get

the vaccine. >> yeah. i think the move in the stocks is less about vaccine hesitancy among folks not vaccinated but more so about how often will people take the boosters is this oral anti-viral an important addition absolutely does it make the need for boosters go away i don't think so >> thank you for joining us. good to have you back. >> thank you for having me. >> we'll talk much more about this the merck covid treatment when we are joined by dr. fauci and up next, we'll head to washington for an update on why things stand for infrastructure as president biden gets set to meet with house democrats to discuss the spending agenda. you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc. dow's up 602 high of the day.

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up 629 on the dow. it has been a tumultuous week on capitol hill lawmakers avoiding a government shutdown but major questions remain about the fate of infrastructure and spending plans ylan muy with the latest as president biden gets set to meet with democrats on the hill. >> reporter: the president is scheduled to arrive in 20 minutes and the democrats hope that he will be the closer that could tell them when and how to move forward on their agenda

now lawmakers i've talked to thinks the president wouldn't come if the deal can't be reached. house democrats already met for two hours today and afterward house speaker nancy pelosi said they would take the vote on the infrastructure bill when they have the votes she also did not rule out the possibility of waiting until next year to vote on that broader social spending bill but lawmakers said all of these talks are still fluid. >> there's still room to negotiate and to talk. and take the pulse of the individual members i didn't hear anybody in the room say anything about abso absolutism or insisting on a prerequisite. >> reporter: some republicans are antsy. remember that the infrastructure bill passed in the senate with the help of ten gop votes and today senator romney called the delay a disappointment and president biden helped negotiate

that deal with republicans so he has a personal stake in seeing this bill get passed back to you. >> what about the debt ceiling >> reporter: the debt ceiling right now is not really on the table. lawmakers were supposed the go home after today it is likely they will be here through the weekend. if not until next week and then turn attention to that all the oxygen in the room is being taken up by this infrastructure bill and the negotiations >> thank you so much much appreciated we have 43 minutes left of the session. comfortably higher by almost 2% on the dow after the break, bitcoin surging as crypto asets kick a new quarter with big gains and what is driving the pop with ceo of crypto ftx. 10-year as always top of the list merck, moderna, apple and the dow round out the tofip ve

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bitcoin popping today to start the month. highest level since september 17 joining us now is the ceo of crypto exchange ftx. sam, welcome. >> thank you for having me. >> so what is making the big moves? today the huge surge after a huge decline for the month of september is it regulatory fears or just risk sentiment around stocks or what >> yeah. it is a really good question it was pretty clear what caused the drop at least most recent drop from the negative regulatory news from china as to what's causing the recovery frankly it is not entirely clear i think it might be partially a recovery from the drop that

maybe things were not as bad or followed through as people anticipated and maybe oversold and just seeing things drift back up and seen a few encouraging statements from the s.e.c. about potential for a futures back bitcoin etf. >> what do you see around trading activity with a month like september there's some reports that we see fewer for instance trades and some anecdotes around robinhood, fewer trades is that something you see? >> right when you see a drop you have record volumes. never going to see as much volume and trades on the day with the biggest move but in the wake of that a few days removed from that we see depressed excitement as come pyred to a period where there's recent up moves in the market. >> you mentioned briefly the

china clamp down on crypto i'm disappointed by the backdrop i thought you moved the headquarters from hong kong to the bahamas. where's the beach? >> yeah, no. i mean, the wi-fi is not that great in the water but no. i am flying around visiting the offices this week. and sort of celebrating the lack of quarantine travel restrictions on me now and i'll be back in the bahamas in a week or so. >> when -- what was pushed you over the edge to need to move the company away from hong kong and how significant are those factors behind the decision in terms of hurting the future of crypto >> i think the biggest thing is we have never had a single headquarters before and we were really excited about establishing one in the bahamas.

they pass a really progressive forward looking bill regular lating the industries there. one of only countries with a licensing regime for crypto exchanges and the lack of quarantine to get into the country means that we can in and out and have business meetings and excited at the hires to make and the ones that we anticipate to make going forward. i think those are the biggest things looking at it for a number of months and moving more people there and i think we are excited to be there. as you look at the landscape it is really on the rise right now. >> you will be susceptible in the u.s. i'm curious where you fit in is coinbase your top competitor i have seen your ads you are making a big splash.

what's the goal? are you looking to go public like coinbase? >> it's a really good question we have a pretty broad audience. our customers are split between a large number of jurisdictions. not one represents a large fraction of the revenue and so i think we see ourselves as having a distributed base and orienting in the same space as a number of spaces coinbase is one of them and excited to find ways to work with them, too as for going public, it is something we want to be ready to do if it is right. but i think that's more of just a preparatory thing. because that's just depending on the market environment we are profitable and don't need to go public but a thing that might fit if markets pick up a

ton. >> sam, come back. and update us on all of that >> of course. >> thank you for joining us. >> thank you. is today's bounce back the start of a broader rally s&p 500 up 1.4%. chart expert jeff degraph with a look at why seasonality could be in the bull favor. the 10-year going below 1.5, releasing the tension in technology stocks. 1.47 the yield on the 10-year. we'll be right back.

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just over half an hour left in the session and the week and still very healthy looking as you can see up 557 on the dow. the high was about ten minutes ago, 646 let's have a look at individual movers zoom video and software company 59 have agreed to terminate the $14.7 billion merger after five9 shareholders opposed to deal both stocks moving higher off that news. lordstown sold the ohio plant for $230 million foxcon will take over manufacturing the ev truck and you can see lordstown down 16.5% today. time now for a cnbc news

update with rahel solomon. two people have died after a helicopter and a single engine plane collided midair over a phoenix suburb the two victims in the helicopter which crashed into a municipal airport. the flight instructor and a student aboard the plane landed safely. google giving up on plans for bank accounts to the users two years after google announced the banking plans. dollar general sued by the federal government for age discrimination and the harassment the lawsuit says that a dollar general regional director some over 50 managers grumpy old men or quit or be fired. a texas vujacic finding alex jones libel for damages and

three defamation trials. jones and other defendants refused to turn over documents to lawyers of sandy hook parents. >> thank you so much. we have about 28 minutes left in the session and higher jeff degraaf tells us what he's seeing in the charts and why seasonality gets better for cyclicals from here on out and dfs weighs in on the latest anti-viral news from merck and what it means tinhe global fight against covid-19 we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this.

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welcome back all the major averages rallying as we head into the close. but despite the move higher the s&p 500 on pace for the worst week since february. let's bring in jeff degraaf. great to see you as always break down for us what we're looking at in terms of some of the key levels and a factor is seasonality and perhaps that's why september was so sloppy. >> yeah. i think september historically is a sloppy month. really played to script. you have obviously some concerns out of washington. we've been overbought, seeing the data not coming in as robustly as expectations and thought back in august set up for a pause. not a massive correction i think we have got that we had a retest today from those lows and i think good news in setting further fourth quarter

seasonality sets up for the fourth quarter and particularly cyclicals are in a good spot. >> talk us through what you expect on the yield front. the rise is pressuring stocks. do you expect that to continue or level off here? >> you have a trend in yeeltds that's unward sloping. good news actually it should steepen the curve. keep in mind the fed while they talk about tapering they will add something like $420 billion to the balance sheet over 6 months or so and expecting yields to move higher. i don't think it will impact stocks in terms of the averages negatively and good not bad news to see yields moving higher. i think that's what you will see is this rotation similar to the first quarter where long duration assets start to lose their relative attractiveness to

the other names out there, tending to be cyclically intended and the that's set up bullishly for the fourth quarter here. >> you are not a fan of the nasdaq >> i think on a relative basis they have -- if you look at the etf flows and the other things that we monitor to give us a sense, the expectations there are too high given what we expect to see out of the overall market and the economy and yields are telling you the economy is still pretty good as yields move higher that puts pressure on the nasdaq and the high flying names. not particularly the faangs. you have mega mega cap names at the top and not as expensive the concepts are proven and

going to be different but on a relative basis underperformers for the fourth quarter most likely. >> do you have a strong view on the dollar dxi broke out on the week. >> that's one potential fly in the ointment here if we're wrong it is because of a very strong dollar the market historically doesn't trade that well off the dollar with sudden disruption, a big spike in the dollar is problematic but we are bullish on the dollar and think it's a creeping sort of steady trend than it is something to accelerate and problematic if it does accelerate that puts pressure on the cyclical call, no doubt about it. we have upside dollar exposure is the way that we think about that. >> the one thing to say about the overall market call is we have been here before and had head fakes where yields move

higher, everybody stresses out about inflation and the federal reserve moving and then reverses happened a number of times this year are you saying this will last longer >> we are never fans of this time is different but the narrative in place back in may and june and really couldn't find anybody talking about softer money or softer yields in particular and dusting off the narratives we are not big on the inflation story. not seeing it in gold or financials rally and do well and i don't think it's a big problem for yields but persistently higher call it 177 is resistance. we are on the way to that zone and keep in mind the fed doesn't usually raise rates until 200 points of basis breathed into 10s and 2s

we are a long way from that being the case and probably have a fed on the hands longer than anticipated and giving the 10 year room to run and catch up with the nominal growth of the economy so to answer the question i think that we have an established trend in place for the 10-year yield and per cyst but nout out of the hand. extraordinary on the downside and something of 250 on the upside. >> jeff, thank you for joining us moving the other way today. morgan stanley with a bullish note on disney next in the market zone. you can watch or listen to us live on the go on the cnbc app every ctseor higher. we'll be right back. l estate ex.

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[ding] don't get mad. get e*trade and take charge of your finances today. ♪♪ ♪ 15 minutes left in the trading day. we are in the "closing bell" market zone. commercial free coverage of the action going into the close. mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments. we have got the co-founder paul hickey back. we'll kick it off with the broader market the stocks jumping nearly wiping away losses from yesterday and all three major averages on track for losses mike, not hard to see why. you have got a very promising break through here on covid-19

treatment. you have yields lower. dollar lower just coming off a month that stocks fell 5% what are you looking to see if this has staying power >> few things are lining up. probably tough to say if this is more than a bounce and the fact that the market did respond to what had been relatively oversold markets a third of the s&p 500 components down 15% from the high and a making of something like this. you reset expectations going into the fourth quarter in a downward way all to the good. looking at a chart of the small cap index, the banks tripped up, they have been sideways than straight down and i don't think it changed the underlying economic market of what the mark was saying because they did

create this breakdown in the s&p. >> paul, what is your take as to the kind of reason behind the pullback that we saw over the prior week or so just down to yields? >> yields were basically the primary blame for the weakness but what investors didn't seem to notice is yields were falling and the market kept down with it the market was worried about yields and sold off and then the market couldn't be bothered because it was selling off lost track of why it was selling off in the first place and i think as yields come in the market rallied a little bit here why what we saw earlier in the week normally when the market pulls back bonds are a safe haven. tend to move in the opposite direction and saw the opposite this week.

very uncommon for tlc to drop that much when the market is going down at the same time and what we have noticed looking back at the prior periods is tend to see equities perform well and get a nice bounce back going forward. so positive more than three quarters of the time. >> merck and the partner ridgeback bio therapeutic announced positive results of their covid-19 drug. the company's seeking emergency use authorization as soon as possible ridgeback's co-founders were on emer earlier today. >> if the drug were work we wanted to have enough for everyone we never got government funding and turned to merck who's a tremendous commercial partner to help us get this to the people

and publicly announced the treatment course available and entered into -- we have entered into a voluntarily license agreement with different manufacturers to allow it to get to sort of other parts of the world that would not be able to afford it. >> novavax and moderna down on the news it is a reminder of the days in the middle of the pandemic when the news moved the market wildly but this is not explaining the move. >> no. i doubt if you hadn't just been down 5% in a few weeks have this move but definitely taken to be positive and helping to drive which stocks are working today if you go toward -- if you're big cautious talking point going into next year was the u.s. is bumping up against a hard ceiling of vaccination rates, maybe brace for something into winter this removes that

the idea to attack it on multiple fronts and it's something like normal. it is not like november of 2020 with the pfizer vaccine news and already had no idea if we were going to get free of this ever so this is a little bit more modest and encouraging for the economic outlook. >> reference there looking at live pictures of the president arrived on capitol hill for ongoing negotiations we'll see if there's anything to come out of those as the day goes on. paul, how important is d.c. to the markets at the moment? >> i think short term very important. we saw what happened in 2011 when we had the issues with the debt ceiling and then the dead downgraded so that's going to be a factor going forward you wouldn't think that congress would let this happen again given what happened ten years ago but you never want to overestimate congress here the one good thing is this is a short term issue it is solved or not solved in

the next few weeks and then going to be addressed and won't cause a calamity as janet yellen described in the testimony this week so it is an issue and investors are right to be concerned about it but i don't think it's going to be a ri pete of the 2011 experience. >> he is there to talk about the big spending agenda and the plans of infrastructure and the reconciliation bill. i'm more interested to hear what you think wall street makes of those. infrastructure would seem bullish. what about the reconciliation bill that comes with higher taxes? >> yeah, no. that's an issue. we don't have the details what comes out of this. no matter -- we won't get a big package of 3.5 trillion an enwill be on the smaller side and will create a fiscal drag on the economy. the relative to where we were

last year and i think the bigger deal is the debt ceiling rather than the infrastructure bill and the reconciliation >> they've still got two weeks i guess to deeal with that disney shares are rallying julia? >> morgan stanley reiterating an overweight on disney with a $210 price target sending the stock up today quote as the content pipeline builds core net additions should accelerate driving shares, coming after scarlet johan son and disney settled the lawsuit and the decision to release on disney plus and studios. and netflix to $ful 5 million.

maintaining the buy rating of "squid games" for the value proposition that netflix brings to creators and consumers. "squid games" is so popular a south korean internet provider is suing netflix in the surge asking them to pay the associated costs sara >> i wanted to ask a question on the scarlet settlement is this a we've kissed and made up and will continue to be part of the installments of avenger or settled and quite a lot of ands animosity between the two parties? >> i believe and i don't want any spoilers but the role is over and they said they will be involved in other films going forward and noting that she was going to be in other disney movies. >> what? >> it is never pretty going to

court. you got to catch up with the films, wilf. stream movies this weekend all on disney plus. >> i mean -- kind of ruined my weekend. >> go watch some disney plus this weekend and "squid games" on netflix. >> i went to see the latest one in the movie theater. >> there is a prequell to that one. >> she died? gah! take - >> all right. >> i didn't understand that there was a prequell. >> working with disney. >> i like the action. >> with other films. >> no hits for julia over the next week on james bond. we have to move on >> i know you are excited for that, wilf. >> on disney and the big news today, there were questions about how fast subscriber growth was growing.

what that would look like. the stock is still down 2.6% for the year and underperformed the market. >> you have an upgrade and an attempt to do a kick save on the stock. down to 169 which is the low from a few months ago and let's remember it is a reopening stock and all those travel related names are flying today with the merck news who knows if that's justified to mean for volumes at theme parks and not clear to me this bounce is exaggerated in disney shares is purely about expectations for sub adds going ahead here. >> turn to energy. the best performing sector of the day. pippa? >> every component in the energy sector trading at least 1% higher including exxon up more than 3% saying higher gas and oil prices could boost third quarter earnings by as much as $1.5 million

bank of america expects the highest free cash flow in ten years. other names are occidental all up more than 4%. u.s. oil and nat gas post a sixth straight week of gains and wti with six straight quarters of gains nat gas seen the best quarter since 2005 and opec is set to meet next week so a lot of things to watch here. >> thank you so much for that paul, for the week as a whole energy is outperforming by almost 8%. is that continue >> i haven't seen the marvel or avengers movies if it makes you feel better. going back to energy, the moves in the sector when you look back they tend to happen in the early stages of a longer term rally.

xle is higher. higher a year later every time short term returns over the course of the following week were mixed especially for the s&p 500 as investors fret about rise in energy prices drag down the economy. and that's boded wellfor the market in the past and should bode well going forward. >> yeah. sort of interesting that energy made a move up s no necessarily core lated to other commodities or the flakes story in itself. what are you watching? >> not specifically. crude oil certainly looks like it's attempting to break out to a new high and not restrained by the stronger dollar. the energy stocks themselves never went down to challenge the august lows so that's a cyclical

value area that people feel as if the world is back to work and play and the demand side looks great and natch gas after that vertical run has come back and looks like treacherous up there and i don't think the stocks priced in anything like the natural gas prices near the highs. >> look at that chart. unbelievable sector up 43% for the year there's the two-minute mark. what are you seeing in the internals. looks solid into the close. >> yeah. been pretty positive even when the dow up less. better than 3 to 1 stocks on the new york stock exchange in a similar position the nasdaq is weaker as you expect been the underperformer today. talking about the travel related stocks and responding after this merck anti-viral news and the it of that tracks that group

bumping above the september highs and still had that big peak from back in early june and making headway and doesn't look like it's at the midsummer lows where the s&p is market attempting to position for yet another reopening push see if that happens. volatility index deflated here it's more than 3 points below yesterday's and overnight high could be a sign of stabilization. still october. people remain on guard, sara >> less than a minute before the close. reopening trade is alive today off the back of the merck news up 46 4. losing steam here into the close. we were up more than 600 visa the biggest contributor to the dow gains. disney also way up there

merck and microsoft at the top there goes the bell. s&p 500 up 1.1%. every sector higher except for utilities and health care dipping boo the red. energy is the outperforming sector and nasdaq gaining. small caps start the quarter in the green up 1.7%. biggest winner of all four welcome. >> optimistic start to october after sloppy september i'm wilfred frost with sara eisen and mike santoli we were up 483 at the close on the dow. 1.4% the high of the session 646. as you can see there from that intraday chart well off the lows similar story in terms of the intraday movements the nasdaq up 0.8% all three of those down sharply for the week

the s&p down 2.2% for the week coming up, jim cramer on whether the market bounce back is sustainable. the new initiative, the investing club merck fueling the comeback after encouraging data of the new covid anti-vile pill we'll discuss with dr. fauci on what the treatment means moving forward for the u.s. paul hickey is still with us and emily hill joins the conversation mike, i guess one looks at this close positively and like the futures. are the worst possible indicator for where to end every single day. >> exactly they have -- you had dramatic moves overnight. reversals in the day what happens with a bit of a stressed market.

i think today it's enough for everybody. a positive not seeing the credit markets freak out. no forced selling probably that 5% sell streak aumont things that everyone talked about as persistent the rally had been and didn't let you in i think you wipe the slate clean a little bit i don't think any bears would be persuaded by the bounce. didn't really convince you otherwise because you never got to yesterday morning' highs and seemed something oversold mechanical about it but that's what makes the market. >> emily, where are you? you have been worried about china. are you convinced by the bounce today? >> i'm not convinced by the bounce today i think there's more volatility to come.

i think we're cautiously optimistic through the end of the year but in the short term there's increasing risks of stag inflation and i think some of the difficulties that china is facing in -- with rolling blackouts, with the evergrande issue and just with the general level of debt in the economy is going to be a head wind. china's a second largest economy in the world and over the last few years contributed 30% to gdp so that's a risk that the market may be underappreciating. >> that's interesting because a lot of people kind of ignored the china risk as a one-day effect you think tell derail the markets and the economy as well? >> i'm less concerned about -- that panic over evergrande, is this the next lehman brothers? contagion to affect global

economic markets i think the issue is more will this turn into a decline in real estate prices that would affect the chinese middle class evergrande, for example, has sold 1.4 million apartments they have yet built the typical urban chinese person has 70% net worth in housing similar to the u.s. in twerve with a slight decline in land prices that could be a problem for the chinese economy that could reverberate across the globe. i don't think -- again, i'm cautiously optimistic into the end of the year but i think that's an under appreciated risk. >> so you guys have a big wealth management business. what do you tell your clients to do about the risks and the

coming market volatility you see? >> wechb having people rebalance portfolios rigorously, ensure that they're diversified we do see opportunities in certain sectors and for those who like to buy individual stocks there's a certain subset of growth stocks that haven't kept up with the frothy, the faang stocks and the u.s. large cap and mid cap growth stocks and so in both of those cases with regard to the sector we like semiconductors a lot. cyclicals. if you pick the right names they pay dividends and expect the revenue pool to double by 2030 those prices have come down over the last month or so because investors have been very concerned about the global supply chain shortage which is a real concern and it's

reverberating about cross the global economy this is a good opportunity to buy taiwan semiconductor, for example. >> paul, today's intraday chart far more encouraging than earlier this week but you also always look quite closely for us it is not really for us but let's pretend it is at the final hour of trade and not as positive as the rest of today and not particularly positive this week. >> yeah. i don't know you have to step up the game lately two thirds of the days since the first day of september have been down last hour so that sort of reflects the view of the market. investors of uncertainty out there. there's the washington, d.c. issue. those people are more hesitant to hold stocks overnight as a sign of caution and a net negative the broader market as a whole what we have seen with this

selloff, what we haven't seen is a real deterioration in the high yield market we have seen that hold up roletively well and that gives us encouragement and then thirdly about the -- any head lean these days about china is a positive i think for the u.s. because it makes u.s. assets that mump more attractive and should have actual flow coming boo the u.s. which is good for the dollar and i think good for small caps going forward. >> speaking of those issues, president biden is meeting with democratic leaders on capitol hill as infrastructure and his spending agenda remain stuck in neutral. ylan >> reporter: democratic leadership greeted president biden as he arrived here biden had a team with him including in legislative affairs and communications an enthat meeting is under way in a

conference room in the basement of the capitol building. reporters could hear cheers coming from inside that room filing into the meeting lawmakers sounded pretty positive >> there is a little bit of a distrust among the progressives and the moderates and trying to figure out a process and land this plane and - >> who dow >> there are some possibilities out there and hopefully the president can get some folks to fill in the credibility gap. >> reporter: the congressman said that everyone wants to get to yes we'll see if the president can help them get there. back over to you. >> thank you for the update. mike, there are pockets of the market to watch. the infrastructure stocks which were excited as a few months ago with the initial bipartisan deal is that a place where investors looked as talks heat up again?

>> the pure infrastructure stocks have certainly kind of suffered adds this dragged along. a cute sy reflex move any ways the spending is in place that's not clear to me that that is exactly where you're going to see a lot of direct benefit. probably just go alodng with th general reflation theme and the idea that the third quarter economic lull was just that, a stutter step in growth and it is the e midging areas of leadership throughout through september through the downside. >> we talk about how it's quite possible that upgrades to earnings expectations have been and gone and past the peak there. what extent is that the case at the margin or more pronounced

and legitimately explains why markets might be pulling back? >> yeah. heading into the entire seasons we awe raising analysts. some of the strongest positive revisions ratios we have seen in at least the last ten years. this is a neutral picture and part is a reflection of the supply chain issues. on the one hand we know that these companies are facing head winds and the analysts are taking this into account and i don't think the expectations are as high especially now that we have seen the pullback in stocks than other earnings seasons in the past so normally when you have diminished expectations that is a positive and sets the low barlow and helps stocks perform better in earnings season. we'll see how that plays out but everybody knows that companies face pressure and seen the

warnings come through. as an investor if you don't that companies are affected by this reporting the numbers then you've been asleep at the switch >> no. they have all mentioned inflation numerous times on the conference calls emily, i know you are taking a longer view but how do you think about the margin story and what the outlook is given the inflationary pressures >> i agree that people expect them to be under pressure. expecting the labor shortages and supply chain issues to affect earnings so we may be pleasantly surprised epspeciall when the bank announce earnings and in this country i don't think earnings are going to be the catalyst for a downturn. >> okay. emily hill, thank you. paul hickey, thank you to you,

as well. when we come back, introducing the cnbc investing club that's jim cramer's initiative he'll discuss that and the outlook for the market straight ahead. plus will merck's new anti-viral treatment be a game changer 2349 fight against covid? 'rn.fauci weighs i wee back in two minutes on "closing bell. wealth is saving a little extra. worth is knowing it's never too late to start - or too early. ♪ ♪ wealth helps you retire. worth is knowing why. ♪ ♪ principal. for all it's worth.

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welcome back big news for cnbc today. the launch of jim cramer's new cnbc investing club with daily emails with his thoughts on the market, periodic i vents and videos and much more and jim joins us now with the details. this is awesome. it is bringing all things cramer purely and exclusively to cnbc talk us through the daily email and more than that with big

strong thoughts on the market or individual stocks. this is the way people get the media actionable advice from you. >> absolutely. yesterday i had a conference in -- a trun kated conference with the executive chairwoman. i wouldn't talk about it on "mad money" but will put in the bullpen for investing club as you know europe is doing well portugal the most vaccinated country on earth doesn't fit anywhere else but my brain and the club and i bet you two will be integral i want to talk about ideas this is about ideas and transparency and both you and sara have them constantly and this is where to share them in the club. >> we appreciate that we would be contributed to in any way people don't know that when they see -- when we see you and not

on set there's always a stack of papers like this big there are notes. there's highlighters there's pen. people don't realize how much work you're doing so i guess we'll get to see more of that beyond the two hours on cnbc. >> it is raw unplucked. the craziness of my day. a cranial experience that's psychedelic and produces in the end a level of calm that you can't believe. an orchestra that comes together why what i love to do is tell people what i see and thinking and the different venue than now. much more about transparency and what stocks look good an enwill talk about -- listen to dr. fauci and after dr. fauci conclusions about stocks and tell you why we reach them everybody that comes on air has something that's valuable that you can turn into an idea but then going into a football game

i see ten ideas. commercials i got five ideas i'm pushing them to people to share the excitement of ideas with me and with you guys. >> jim, what i find really interesting about this, i have read your books and know you well and talk about this the whole time you started as a hedge fund manager. you pivoted to do something you love more which is the tv side and sharing views with everyone and a downside for us is rightfully we can't trade individual stocks. weirdly this is almost the first time you do that again slightly different form but bringing that back sharing the actionable ideas with people. >> i have a charitable trust this is estee lauder stock up huge why? because they do huge selling at

duty free stores we think there will be more travel and it's opened by my charitable trust and i give people with the club why it is up and can go up 30 with business in china. these are the things that are in my head and translate into ideas with the people who are members of the club which is the most fun thing we do. we have club members questions and talk about the stuff in a way that i think we did last week at your engagement party where one point stephanie and i thought we would come to blows her husband said i don't want to own this cyclical we go at it. we pound it. we pound it. and then we let the investment club people have it. >> i love that those discussion points came up at that party and

also love is that the stack of papers which sara aptly mentioned because no one works harder than you and left in the car and swapped for what was in your hand. >> it was good. >> from time to time. >> good -- >> jim >> sara! >> while we have you today was a big day. first day of the fourth quarter. >> yes >> stocks closed off the high. reopeninging tech. do you think it has some staying power here >> eight years ago i went to southern part of mexico and saw where the monarchs go. they fly one day and go to this one area right? this market has about an attention span of a monarch butterfly. on monday we'll worry about infrastructure we don't have the ability to remember what happened today on monday

it is like we get to that one place in mexico. we got there today and then next week some other place and say that i'm confident that this market will forget what happened today by tuesday and that's not so good. >> yeah. it has felt that way great to have you on the show. >> no, no. i'm not done i'm not done the bengals won last night and i thought of you. >> wait. what did the bengals do? >> sign up to the club >> absolutely. >> we've got to keep you a little bit elusive and exclusive. >> the bengals, i'm sorry. >> i know. >> didn't mean to stump you like that. >> i knew that one. >> you know i'm not following it as closely as you are. there's the qr code. very cool. i show your qr code, jim. >> thank you. >> put the phone up there.

also find out more on cnbc.com/investingclub or put the phone on the screen and take you straight where you want to be jim, thank you. >> i love you guys. >> 6:00 p.m. eastern go bengals. white house chief medal adviser dr. fauci on the potential time loon for the covid anti-viral pill. plus tesla shares surging despite the broader market struggling find out if the stock could rev higher with the latest delerivy numbers next week. we'll give you a preview we'll be right back. help you bu. virtual wallet® with low cash mode℠ from pnc bank. one way we're making a difference.

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major news out of merck. the giant announcing results from the covid anti-viral pill showing it cuts the rex of hospitalization and death in half when given to high risk individuals early. shares closed higher by more than 8%. joining us now is dr. fauci, chief medical adviser to president biden. welcome back it is great to have you, dr. fauci. >> thank you good to be with you. >> clearly the stock market celebrated this.

casinos and hotels and airlines all rallied. how do you see this anti-viral pill being used and how fars can we get there >> this is certainly an important advance. there's no doubt about that. when you have an orally administered medical intervention that directly attacks the virus and had the kind of data that merck announced with their announce. with a 50% decrease in the hospitalization, the trial was designed to be given to people early in the course of infection. it's an orally administered drug that's really very important it was compared to a placebo and the end point does it reduce the risk of hospitalization or death? the results are quite good importantly in the placebo group eight deaths and in the

treatment group zero deaths and adds an importance to the study. you asked the question of when it can get approved by the fda why the company mentioned they would literally within a day or so sending the data to the fda so you have to make sure you give the fda the time to very carefully go over the data and make the kind of determinations for emergency use authorization. i can't predict when it will be but i can tell you one thing they'll do it as quickly as they possibly canso rather than a deadline know that they are working hard to get this done in an expeditious manner. >> the trial, dr. fauci, was done on unvaccinated individuals. is this something that vaccinated individuals will be able to qualify for as the number of breakthroughs continues to grow? >> right this is a treatment for

infection. so whether you get infected following a break through from a vaccination or infected without being vaccinated the treatment is for infected individuals. i won't get ahead of what the fda will be authorizing it for but i would assume that if you're infected you're infected. doesn't matter whether you have been vaccinated or not a person infected would be somebody i would imagine who would be eligible. but again let's leave that to the regulatory authorities to talk about what the indications would be >> dr. fauci, does it whether significantly or at the margin, lower the need for those who are fighting against getting vaccinated, refusing to get vaccinated does it reduce the need to get vaccinated >> in my opinion as a public health person absolutely not

it is always better to not get infecte infected than to get infected and rely on a drug to protect you from getting advance disease. it just doesn't make any sense to say, it doesn't matter. no drug by any means is 100% effective. look at the study that went into the merck drug it is a quite good result. which is a 50% protection. so at 50% decrease in the incidents of getting into a severe situation requiring hospitalization and may lead to death. remember there were people on the treatment arm who actually did not have a successful result the best way to avoid getting into a hospital is to don't get

infected the best way to not get infected is to get vaccinated >> dr. fauci, you guys have been pushing the vaccine and i obviously understand why and i had covid and spread through the family in the past few weeks and why i'm doing the show from home today and i wonder about the pub messaging around vaccinations. three vaccinated people got covid in my house, two unvaccinated children got it are you too casual about the limitations of the vaccine because it does feel to me that these break throughs are happening, happening regularly and we haven't really seen the government pay that much attention to them or warn about them and we were able to get it and transmit it. thank god we're not in the hospital i get it you can get it and transmit it. >> we have been warning. let me give you the science and the facts.

if you are an unvaccinated person you have five times the likelihood of getting infected, 11 times the likelihood of being hospitalized and 11 times the likelihood of dying compared to someone who's been vaccinated. so the data showing the benefit of vaccines is incontra veritable. if you look at the people who have died from covid-19, overwhelmingly 90% plus of them are unvaccinated vaccination protects you against severe disease and even when you get breakthrough infections, no vaccine is 100% protective, but what we do know is if you get vaccinated and get a break through infection you are much less likely of having a severe

outcome and much more likely you would be without symptoms or mildly symptomatic you should not confuse the very important data that we now have a drug that can diminish hospitalization and death by 50%. you should not confuse that with the overwhelming benefits of the protection of vaccines those should not be confused >> 100% but says on the cdc website that infections happen in only a small proportion of people who are fully vaccinated and when these infections occur among the vaccinated they tend to be mild but the cdc doesn't track the break through infections how do we know it's a small proportion and tending to be mild it is not a question of whether hospitalizations and death we know that benefit but public

mess anding for the risk for vaccinated people. >> in the past the cdc has noting you're quite correct rng tracked all real and potential infections they are modifying that right now and the studies that are being done that would give the kind of information you are talking about. also, it is very important to know that with the booster rollout we have been talking about we are anticipating that we will get an extra added boost. the israelis are now showing very, very clearly when you give a person that received two doses of an mrna in this case a pfizer, a boost, you diminish dramatically the infection and the likelihood of getting a severe outcome and importantly

there are early data that are now showing that you actually begin to show a diminution in the transmission itself so in answer to your very appropriate question about if you get vaccinated and you get infected is there less of a chance that you will be transmitting it to someone who is unvaccinated or someone who is vulnerable. the chances of doing that are diminished by being vaccinated and even further diminished according to preliminary data. we'll wait to see the fundamental core of the data but it looks like that extra added of protection from the boost will be very valuable. again we talk about data being rolled out in realtime and that's why when i use terminology of strong suggestions we want to wait until we get the data to say

that with a degree of confidence >> so on that note, dr. fauci, how close are we to having clear guidelines being given on what boosters people should take and when as i understand it there is data that you've seen on moderna and mix and match in terms of which booster to take and we haven't seen it yet so what's the time line there >> okay. that's a really good question. the time line is as follows. we have conducted at my institute a nine-part grid study in which we've looked at the three vaccines that have been either aproofed or given in the uae. and we have given as a third boost either moderna to those groups or j&j to those groups or pfizer to those groups the data on the moderna boost have already been looked at gip

given to the company and analyze jd the data to the j&j as a boost actually i believe is finished right now and also being analyze jd the data from the pfizer boost will likely be available in the next couple of weeks and i mean the data from the clinical trialists tothe companies. the companies will then go over their data and make a decision of submitting it to the fda for their regulatory approval so the only thing i can give you is a time line which is what we're responsible. we being the clinical research community and the nih is get that data to the company that is to -- part of it is already at some of the companies. and the other will be available to the company literally within a week or two.

>> wow we look forward to getting past that date and maybe shared once it's sub mitted to the fda my other question was how confident -- i asked you about this last time a month or two ago, how confident you are that delta will be the worst variant and what level you worry about the weather colder and pushing socializing and all the other related factors indoors. >> i'll give an answer totally consistent with what i said before that the likelihood of there being something worse is within our own domain and capabilities. we have 70 million people in this country who are eligible to be vaccinated who have not been vaccinate jd the more people we get vacced the les likelihood there will be the opportunity of

the emergence of another variant. delta is a variant whose characteristic predominantally allowed it to dominate is to transmit from person to person if we allow the virus to freely circulate particularly among unvaccinated people you give the virus a greater opportunity to mutate to the point of possibly getting a variant that would be troublesome even in the context of our vaccines. why it is so important not only for the individual to protect themselves, their family, and their environment in the sense of their social interactions, but it is really important for the entire program of getting this virus under control not only here in the united states but also our responsibility i believe and we are doing a lot in that regard more than all the other

countries combined is to get doses of vaccine to the rest of the world, particularly the low and middle income countries so that we don't have virus circu circumstance lating there to evolve into a variant of concern. >> yeah. that's where they come from. my final question has to do with my experience. i have a new perspective and that is, a qi about monoclonal antibodies. i feel like there's almost zero public health guidance on this, on who can receive them, when, how they can receive them why the best is you have to go to an e.r. and see whether they give it to 65 and older or high rigs or whether you can get it as a vaccinated infectious person i don't think people know that you have to get it within the first ten days and stories about these treatments being underused and i wonder why that's not

promoted more as a tool beyond just telling people to get vaccinated. >> yeah. i did a special press conference several weeks ago and the topic of my presentation was the importance of the utilization of antibodies that's the first thing the second thing they are being so utilized now that the supply is trying to keep up with the demand so there is a major increase in the utilization of monoclonal antibodies if you want information it is a click away go to nih.gov and search under treatment guide leans and find there the precise recommendations and yutdlizations for monoclonal antibodies. >> you should get them only high risk people infected >> according to the guidelines, it is individuals who would be at high risk and right now there's a lot of good data coming out in other areas.

that is all delineated guidelines and it is a click away type in treatment guidelines. >> no. i think that people should dr. fauci, it is great to have you. thank you for coming on and taking the questions. >> good to be with you thank you for having me. still ahead, the ceo of a retail tech company project on how retailers can navigate the supply chain challenges we hear about and that they face right now. we'll be right back. i'm so glad we did this.

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welcome back it is time for a cnbc news update with shepard smith. >> happy friday. thank you. president biden on capitol hill at this hour just finished a meeting with the house

democratic caucus trying to break the log jam within his own party. progressives and moderates are battling over the infrastructure bill and larger budget reconciliation bill. the build back better bill the president came to the microphones and spoke to the media. here's what he said. >> whoe, whoe, whoe, whoe, whoe. thank you. >> thousands of different questions and all legit. we'll get this done. it doesn't matter when six minutes, six days or six weeks. we're going to get it done. >> six days and six weeks. that's new we'll see what happens the build back better bill is what he is talking about jen psaki sid that the president's there to make case to the lawmakers and not litigate the path forward california is the first in the union to mandate covid

vaccines for all school children, applies to public and private school just the governor announcing today that the man date will go into effect for grades 7 through 12 with full fda approval saying students in k-6 will be phased in after the vaccine is approved. the national women's soccer league canceled the games this weekend in the wake of a widespread sexual coercion scandal. there are allegations of emotionally abuse toward players. women's national team star megan rapano said men protecting men who are abusing women. burn it all down let all their heads roll the reporter chronicled. sara, back the you feel better. >> thank you, shep why yep doing better

still ahead, project verdia ceo. we'll be right back on ceo ♪ i'm a reporter for the new york times. if you just hold it like this. yeah. ♪ i love finding out things that other people don't want me to know. mm-hmm. [beep] i just wanted to say... ♪ find yourself in these situations

and see who you are. and that's just part of the bargain. ♪ ♪ ♪ and that's just part of the♪ ♪rgain. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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campos this is a retail tech company focused on supply chain innovation and modernization which is good timing because there's so many problems inthi area are you stepping in to address the issues we see out there in corporate america? >> hi, thank you so much for having me. it's obviously a complicated and complex topic. we live in an interconnected global world and so many aspects and there's a perfect storm happening. we hear every day about the containers ten times more costly labor force issues but logistics disruptions are here to stay the question becomes what will we do about it what we see is we'll need to marry the physical with technology for greater transparency tech solutions like the one we have offer a link and link the physical flow of goods to the

information flow to make better realtime decisions going into inventory forecasting, how much you need when you need it and where you need it. flexible fulfillment models. so companies are going to need to diversify to to diversify toe the price escalation we're seeing today that's where disrupters are providing solutions and they're much more accessible now from a tech standpoint. >> so what have we learned about supply chains through all of this and what needs to be different going forward? because it really feels like it's so widespread from the chips to the clothing companies. something's got to give, right we can't go through what we're doing again. >> well, we need to really -- when you look at that, it starts with, you know, there's a very completed supply chain, as you

know, but it starts with predicting inventory needs ai within technology is able to help us better prepare for what the needs are and where they need to be secondly, most of the ceos and the supply chain operators i know havebeen looking for more near shore opportunities for quite some time but really diversifying the vendor matrix is also an important part. it's not easy to stand up a new production facility, especially when everyone in an industry is trying to do it all at the same time but that needs to happen consistently so there needs to be more options outside of china, outside of southeast asia, going more towards portugal and latin america and mexico and obviously the u.s. as well so we definitely need more near shore options. >> speaking of that, it is hispanic heritage month, sandra, i wanted to ask you, as someone who rose through the ranks of corporate america, you led diane von firsurstenberg, i was looki

at the numbers for corporate boardrooms, it's really pretty pathetic 19% of the population latino, only 4% of board seats that is less than blacks and asians how do we fix this and make it more reflective of the population >> right well, it's a perfect topic, especially this month. diverse boards, as we know, make better decisions like you just said, latinos are the least respected. when we talk about latinas, women on board seats, it's even worse because we represent only 1% of fortune 500 company board seats, so that's actually even worse. right now if you look at companies with diverse management tend to do better financially 35% of the time. how do we fix that we have the latino corporate directors association, they help gather latinos that are corporate board ready or help prepare executives to be board ready. there's a pipeline there of individuals. we have a much stronger voice now. as you just mentioned, it's

basically 18.5, 19% of the population we are 60 million strong, the second largest demographic, we have the largest consumer base we have a bigger voice, and a much bigger voice will need to be represented on boards, in leadership and certainly in the employee green lcda is making sure they get noticed. >> we appreciate you weighing in on the topic, sandra campos, from project verte, sorry i mispronounced it >> thank you so much coming up, key figures that every tesla investor needs to watch out for, after the break gold. your strategic advantage.

more news out of capitol hill let's get to ylan mui for the details. >> the head of the progressive caucus, pramila jayapal, said the president realizes the infrastructure bill is linked to the reconciliation package no timetable for when that will

happen but she said they are getting ready to work, guys. >> so ylan, what happens next? >> many more days of negotiations this is likely going to draw out potentially for weeks or even months as they try and reach an agreement on that bigger spending package right now we understand the infrastructure bill will not get voted on today despite many, many assurances from democratic leadership that they could get this one >> so it's not the six minutes that the president said, probably not the six days by the sounds of it, ylan, more likely the six weeks. no doubt you will keep us updated throughout that time thank you very much, ylan, for that final thoughts, guys, in terms of what a crazy week for the markets, mike. i mean, it ends on a positive note, but that kind of overlooks quite how sharp the declines were 2.2% for the s&p as a whole. >> we've rebounded today, yeah, to those levels that people were hoping would hold on the downside most of the week. look, i think it's a new month you do have this sort of fourth

quarter effect generally good tendencies, but it don't always come into play at the beginning of october if the seasonal stuff matters a lot. so i think the market responded to the fact it was a little bit stretched. we got a jobs number next week, that's probably somewhat crucial. you're going to want to see there's still some strength to the labor market and it's going to feed into what the fed has to say. i think we're just looking ahead to earnings because the s&p has actually fallen below the trend in earnings when arguably gives it more support unless earnings forecasts are really going to collapse >> i don't know, i feel like the nasdaq took a big hit overall, more than 3% it's really yields, it depends what yields do to see what the stock market does, right, mike, and to see whether value and cyclicals continue to outperform if these yields continue to march higher the last jobs number missed and was pretty weak. inflation was down

powell turned all of a sudden hawkish. >> i don't think it's determine theive determinative yields didn't do much on a full week basis yes, it often is going to determine which style of stocks is going to lead and lag but if they kick around in this range for a little while it's not clear to me that that's the primary driver it's really a matter of the stuff that is geared to some kind of, you know, better economy, it's holding up a little better. the big nasdaq stocks had their heavy effect on the indexes this week so, you know, we'll see what the next -- i really do think it's about resetting expectations going into earnings season >> i think that's going to be -- banks is more thana week away, of course, more like 11 or 12 days away. that will be particularly of interest to me, obviously. but could set a tone where if it's capital markets again and the yield curves names ongoing strong guidance, it might be a

soft point, because they've already run up >> no, they absolutely have. >> we are pretty much out of time what a crazy end to september, sharp declines for the month, sharp declines for the week as a whole, nasdaq down 3.2%, the dow down1.4% that does it for "closing bell." have a great weekend "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq markets overlooking new york city's times square, this is "fast money. tonight on "fast," our retail trade alert, karen hitting the buy alert and why she's betting on a rebound plus disney delivers the stock rallying 4% today. one stock analyst even more bullish on disney plus later, bitcoin is breaking out how our traders are playing this big move we start off with the mainly market musician milestone from merck, the drug giant posting