we had a four-week streak and now kellogg. >> i went to the store before i leave you and looking for triscuit crackers and the guys said we haven't had ship s. >> with a little cat food on it. >> pate? >> cheddar cheese. i'll stick with that. >> thank you, dom. >> you got it. >> thank you for watchinging "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. >> hello and welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen at new york stock exchange easing some anxieties for investors the major averages are surging but off the best levels heading into the final hour of trade. >> i'm wilfred frost have a look at the action today. congress coming to a deal on the debt ceiling pushing back fears on a default until december nearly every s&p sector positive led by materials and health

care jobless claims fell by 38,000 last week. it comes ahead of the september jobs report. >> coming up, jeff sherman, stephanie link and tesdra maeda will weigh in. tesla set to kick off the shareholder meeting. we'll ask what a top analyst is wooching for reddit co-founder alexis ohanian will join us >> looking forward to that. but first the let big stories. mike santoli with a look inside the rally. meg tirrell is looking at the vaccines just slipping a little be the in the last hour? >> certainly good to have three days straight in a row higher. we got relief but not really the

rerisky move i do think maybe tomorrow's job number before the open might be a reason people wanted to flatten out when we did get to the highs. you have not quite taken care of that which is this developing down trend at the highs for the day the s&p 500 was very, very close to kind of closing up this big gap that was there from a week ago monday very close to going above the 50-day average missed those still up 3% from monday's lows why not bad for a few day's work responded to the conditions. all that stuff is positive but these things don't typically go in a straight line and explains maybe why we are fading slightly here today inclusive rally today. been saying since the highs in the market that the credit markets largely undisturbed. this isdating from right about when the s&p 500 made the peak in the very start of is ept.

you have the riskiest corporate debt is joutperforming the safe stuff. this is still okay this checks the box that says we are not seeing credit markets get alarmed about liquidity. so that's all to the good. the outlook is still positive. looking at big year over year gains and probably companies going to beat the estimates but this is the trend in terms of the net percentage of companies to see higher versus lower and you see basically peaked at record levels. that's probably what the market largely is pricing in for a while and just means they move into a middle cycle and saw that in around 1985 you came off the boil and then i think what's also interesting 20089 into 2010 swinging back to

profitability from losses so it's something to keep in mind probably going to make it more selective market but high levels but chopping lower. >> the biggest jump from lunchtime yesterday to lunchtime yesterday. does that mean that the d.c. drama is more important? >> yes and no. we were at levels of two weeks ago. i don't know that -- i think it's a removal of negative getting out of the shadow of the possibility of a constitutional crisis and the government can't pay the debts that's a net positive but i don't think it's sum total. i think we did see a little bit of a break in the vertical trends in commodities so i think that working together plus the fact that stocks lower and down much more than 10% got us to a place to capitalize on some of

the better than expected headlines or better than feared headlines from washington. >> thank you pfizer officially now requesting emergency use authorization for the vaccine for children but are parents eager to give the kids the shot meg tirrell with that story? meg? >> the answer is of course some parents are and some aren't in this divide around the vaccines but pfizer with the full application for emergency use authorization for the vaccine down to 5. this comes after pivotal trial results showed efficacy and a strong response. two shots three weeks apart but a third of the adult dose why the fda set an advisory meeting for october 26 to discuss the vaccine for that age group up until then they review the application with booster

applications to discuss at the end of next week coming to parent's attitudes to get the kids vaccinated there's polling on this. some from the kaiser family foundation shows in september more parents were eager to get the kids 5 to 11 vaccinated. 34% in september saying right away versus 26% in july that goes along with an uptick of cases in kids of the course of the months so it's still not a majority of parents saying absolutely right away we'll get the shot and willingness seems to be increasing guys >> when do we expect the results for the younger aged children below age 5? >> yeah. pfizer has sort of communicated it could be one to two months behind and we got the first results for 5 to 11 end of september and maybe end of october to november to hear about 2 to 5 and then 6 months.

>> thank you so much. after the break, watch this space. we'll talk about the commercial space market and how stoke plans to compete with giants like spacex you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc. (judith) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is different than other money managers. (other money manager) different how? don't you just ride the wave? (judith) no - we actively manage client portfolios based on

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rocket lab taking a step into the final frontier. shares surging after announcing it's selected to launch nasa's system this is more players entering the space race this year reusable rocket company stoke space technologies raised $9 million in investments from reddit. alexis joins us with the co-founder and ceo of the stoke space technologies great to have you both with us very good afternoon to you andy, i come to you first if i may because there's space related companies out there. just tell us exactly what's different about yours. low cost reusable rockets? is that right? >> yes thank you. stoke is building rapidly reusable rockets for the satellite market companies like spacex are a freight train to space we are the low cost on demand

sprinter van that takes you to the final destination. >> there is growing competition in the space are you feeling that are you finding that is the addressable universe so great that even though there are the other companies that you feel like there's no one rally challenging you? >> the addressable universe as you say is large and it's growing but i think there's as much activity as there is in space there's few party who is are able to get to space and even fewer focused on the 100% reusable aspect of what we are doing. very important also to think about i guess things that are reusable and that we consider operation reusable these are things to turn around very quickly like an aircraft and less the way we think about traditional rockets. >> alexis, i know you investing but how do you compete with elon musk and jeff bezos, literally

the two richest people in the world. >> bring it on a reason why i get to do my job and a reason why we're so excited to invest here at 7 776 is because the nature of investment is small obsessed dedicated high performing teams of individuals coming together to move faster and as amazing the work is that those two companies have done to pioneer the space it actually just sets a set of precedent now that a startup like stoke can exceed. what this company has done in far short eight months, manufacturing techniques, to build and ship is really nothing short of remarkable. so just like google and amazon exist in the tech ecosystem to push folk to build companies

that's the role of the rocket companies for companies like stoke. >> i'm interested how many other space companies you have looked at and perhaps rejected choosing stoke. is this your way of playing an attractive sub sector? >> we looked at about a dozen others this is a nascent space and what was so exciting is andy and the team have tremendous bona fides. making a seed investment in coinbase in 2012 there's not that many other companies to look at but you get to know the folks building pretty quickly and then you find the ceos with the highest conviction around and that was the case with andy here and reusable rockets. >> talk us through the timeline as to when this is becoming a

reality and what you have in store. >> we closed seed last year. we are building very quickly focused on reusable second stages that turn around with 24-hour turn around. that's the last big domino to fall in theholy grail. 100% rapidly reusable rockets and will design and build by the end of next year from there we scale up and work on the first stage and go orbital. >> do you feel like people connecting to the internet and other factors via satellite will be the future and traditional fix line communication will be the past >> i think yes i think that's -- i don't think it will go totally to zero i think there are solutions that are perfectly reasonable and good enough and not just

disappear. i'm more interested about what making this sort of a default space that's space will do for us we can do things with satellites where there's clear market demand and once something like stoke makes it trivial trivial to get stuff up and down from space you unlock so many different possibilities. the sun is always shining in space. there's opportunities to do everything from agriculture to even taking ad of zero gravity with producing and manufacturing things that's not as scaleable without the benefit of doing them in space. this is early days and whether we think is the market size for space today is a fraction of what it will be with this infrastructure and that's the exciting part. >> alexis, we were ycurious your

thoughts on facebook facebook's response. how much pressure do you think is on the company right now? >> every time i think we're going to reach a new level of maximum of pressure there's another event. i can't imagine mark is thinking too much about launching his own rocket company at this point i think he is very much all hands on deck with facebook and i think broadly -- look. what we have seen in innovation just the last year with web 3 mean that is so much of this -- web 2 infrastructure for social media is i think reinvented on the blaockchain with a lot to think about and end of the day i don't think he'll be another billionaire entering the space race but if he wants to god

bless him. our money on stoke. >> on the challenges of leading a social media company and the pressure you get that the fact you get in the cross hairs and the spotlight from the media and people like this do you feel for mark on the week he had or critical of the balance of pursuing shareholder gains versus stakeholder gains >> look. as a human being i'm evmphathetc of 509 human being i think they have to wrest wl the unintended consequences of 15 years of social media has done i'm sympathetic but this is the territory and part of the burden of leadership and responsibility is leading and i think what inspires me today are so many founders and ceos i met with are much more forward thinking and than i was

as a college kid right out of school and does give me hope because i think we'll learn and adapt the new generation is more sophisticated but look these are real consequences of these platforms and that's why -- >> i can't tell -- i'm having trouble figuring out the position here, if facebook did a bad job and curious because as a co-founder of reddit that company would face more criticism and if it was as big as facebook. >> look. i very publicly resigned last year and obviously happy to take companies steps to ban hate communities. those are good for business. good for society and so yeah. i think every one of the platforms has a responsibility i do really believe that even

though these are hard things to wrestle with long term they're the best business decisions. because creating healthier environments, environments where people are delighted by the product and service is better for long term retention. not dependent on advertising and vie lating privacy are better for the platforms so i think every company has to sort this out. but i have the benefit now of getting to work with the best founders they're smarter than i am and grateful for that. >> we appreciate you talking about it and bringing one on good to see you. >> thank you so much. >> fascinating that alexis puts himself and mark in the old generation of leaders. >> old school. >> what is next? >> not space from mark was the

big prediction take a look at where we stand on the market. off the highs of the session but a fierce rally here. 1.4% as the nasdaq roars back. small caps up 1.8% every sector higher but utilities. when we come back, the latest installment in the word on the street picks a name that's already doubled this jeer. heading to break check out the top searched tickers interesting crypto names the making the list. along with the 10-year yield apple and moderna getting love today up 3% after a bumpy few weeks. we'll be right back.

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35 minutes left to go in the trading session. let's check the individual market movers. share of levi higher today after

reporting strong earnings. seeing an uptick in sales as people return back to school and work also raised the outlook of 8. %. morgan stanley upgrading 5 below. the firm saying the pullback is overdone and the valuation is attractive the stock jumping almost 6%. jim cramer talking about both stocks today calling 5 below a great growth name. you can sign up at cnbc.com/investingclub or point your phone at the qr code on the screen and takes you straight there. >> start replacing the codes around restaurants in new york with this one and switch them. >> yeah. >> a surprise for everyone. >> i'm sure. >> depends on how hungry they are. still to come, double line's jeff sherman tells how the jobs

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comcast chairman and ceo brian roberts in london today for the launch of sky glass. it is a smart tv that will be assembled by sky itself in

europe available in multiple sizes and colors and bringing together content from all sources and apps in one place. a sky subscription can be by installment to in-house buy you pay later option and sky hopes to open up customers and requires just broadband and based on technology of sky and comcast. sky ceo said the launch quote could only be made possible since we became part of the comcast family and does suggest that a similar product might be coming to the u.s. under comcast branding soon. we should note comcast is parent company of cnbc and if it does come to the u.s. it kind of moves comcast directly into a roku type company. of course remains to be seen what level of takeup it has and whether it can command a

multiple for that part of the business. >> the centralization of all of your streaming apps in one place. also like a cool technology. right? voice activated. >> supposedly great technology we haven't tested it out i think that subscription model for payment, sort of buy now and pay later but like a phone subscription to tie you to so where do you go to get the subscriptions and the content and sky in uk and comcast if they follow suit here looking at that model. >> interesting marriage of hardware and software. one to watch from the parent company. it is time for a news update >> hello here is what is happening at this hour. four northeastern states have agreed to share info on gun purchases in crimes to track and investigate other gun crime just the governors have signed on to the plan to only share data for

use with law enforcement. in texas an s.w.a.t. team served a search warrant at the home of the suspected gunman at yesterday's high school. school officials had been told he was bullied. >> he was robbed it was reported. it happened not you once it happened twice. he was scared. he was afraid. in virginia a police officer's quick thinking saving a fellow officer an out of control car slamming into a police cruiser just after an officer was pulled out of harm's way and then made sure everyone else was okay you can see that incredible video. wilf >> wow why close shave there thank you. good to know everyone was all right. >> 27:30 left until the close. here's we stand. higher off the session points and over a percent we'll get the word on the

street on retail stocks speaking to a senior analyst from cowen and jeff sherman to weigh in on the move in yields this week and why we reach critical levels for the 5, 10 and 30-year. his views later in the show. we'll be right back. sales are down from last quarter but we are hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah...uh... doug? sorry about that. umm... what...its...um... you alright? [sigh] [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers plus some of the lowest options and futures contract prices around. don't get mad. get e*trade and start trading today.

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today the word on the street on retail cowen's oliver chen joins us welcome back. >> great to be here. >> i wanted to start with macy's which has had a nice run but nowhere near some of the glory day levels what is your bull thesis on this the best i have heard is they have valuable real estate. >> that is certainly true. valuable real estate but in addition they're managing inventory. we have a strong consumer backdrop of low unemployment and e-commerce is 40% of sales so this is is a retailer that's transitioning. store count down to 500 from 700 and more previously and also modernizing the supply chain in terms of getting goods fagger to customers. also a pandemic story with customers going out again and wanting to dress and giving gifts. this will be a gift giving season so we're looking forward to

that, too. valuation is important to consider a pe ratio of 7 to 8 times is very low so that's an important factor and 2 billion of real estate is $7 per share. >> what do you make of a suggestion yesterday to spend off the e-commerce business like saks did does that make any sense >> yeah. the pe multiple on macy's is 7 to 8 times think about revolve, their price to earnings ratio exceed 50 times. and litally it's higher for pure play -- sorry. revolve is so much cooler than macy's. >> very cool retailer, another

relove the music festival it's very chic, yes. >> what about target >> target is a great story in our view because it's very diversified. having a portfolio 20% food, 15% apparel. moment, electronics, beauty helps. the big story is digital a tremendous digital business that's been growing fast and what's been beneficial throughout the crisis is curbside pickup and drive-up that's a key aspect helping to fuel digital and reinventing the store. target stores help fulfill about 95%. valuation level also 18 times pe. walmart at 21 times. it positions target well for the long term. we like target and walmart and the scale they have in this environment. >> we were just talking about with mike tjx is acting weak

who's vulnerable and not vulnerable to the inventory shortages as a result of the supply chain we saw it hurt as big and popular as nike in the last earnings quarter. >> more generally apparel and footwear are category which is have higher risk and a lot of fashion apparel is like produce. it expires the other issue is southeast asia, india, factory shutdown and port congestion. we like chartering ships themselves like costco and walmart and american eagle it is specific by company and the decisions at management teams made six months ago and different decisions that teams made as well. >> let's get the final stock pick far fetch. >> yeah.

digitization of luxury is a huge idea so luxury going online farfetch is a love dream marketplace online global in matsch growing in the low 30s and luxury is going online as a sector it has a very interests platform model where it links boutiques around the world to customers and multibrand global exposure third asia, third europe, third u.s. similar to amazon but different in that the luxury good merchandise is different if structure and nature of competition. a big catalyst is china and farfetch's relationship. >> oliver, thank you for joining us. >> great being here. energy prices fall and costco reports strong sales. we'll break down those stories and inside t mkeheart zone next. we are up 388 on the dow

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beautifully set in a hollowed-out loaf of sourdough bread. don't get mad get e*trade and get more than just trading investing. banking. guidance. with 15 minutes left in the trading day we are in the "closing bell" market zone commercial free coverage of the action going into the close. mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments. today hightower chief strategist stephanie link back. welcome, stephanie dow, s&p, nasdaq higher for the third day in a row kind of surprised the markets loved the kick the can down the road punt it a month and a half

debt ceiling negotiation. >> i think it just sort of dials back the pressure. a fewer thing to worry about in the october/november choppy period and when the market got stretched to the downside. the economic numbers are coming in reasonably well relative to expectations and seems like we had the 5% to 6% pullback people were looking for. it put distance between the monday lows and today is 3%. the market is operating within the rails and it continues to do that today doesn't mean that this is just kind of an empty calorie rally or that but taking a step by step and did not power through some of these sort of thresholds that you might have expected with a really strong endure rally i think with the jobs number tomorrow. >> steph, have you been encouraged do you feel like we're past the

worse of the september, october pullback now >> we are close i think. the fact that we kicked the can on the debt ceiling paves the way to infrastructure. probably a skinnier version and now focus on fundamentals because earnings really start in earnest next week and expect strong demand and viewed favorably and higher costs and pricing power or pressure. do we get more fedexes with the disappointment or levis? i think reopenings stands to do the best financials always sell off you know that. on earnings. up to buy them because the companies are buying back the stock. but i was encouraged today by the broad based rally. health care and tech mainly semis some faang i think it should be broad based because the economy is

recovering we got great initial claims and challenger gray and christmas data this morning in terms of total hiring plans and the ual news increasing the schedule because demand is so strong so that's why i think the markets should be diversified and broad based and pleased to see it today. >> want to pick up on the comment of banks mike, we have had a slight changing of the guard of leadership as you expect rates picking up leading to a better performance. i do just wonder the last week whether or not we have a tough setup. before that looking a little bit more amenable with the share price. >> at least for a jpmorgan which has gone loose to the upside i can see that

one encouraging thing is a pretty good flight in terms of etf flows from financials with the lows and not as if people so over loved them at the moment. >> we'll see interest given the move up in yields. energy prices turning higher today. pippa stevens has a look. >> oil came and the department of energy clarified that it is not planning to tap the strategic petroleum reserve. a statement said that all tools in the tool box are always under krks but that there's no immediate plan to take the actions at this time oil ended the day up more than 1% recoverling from a 3% dip in the session. a similar story with nat gas which has been down as much as 5% before settling higher. in terms of specific stocks, the names in the green

the stock can really another 20%. wilf >> thank you so much for that. mike oil prices higher today and on the week a couple pullback days energy itself, as it tracks the oil price moves sufficiently >> looking at the oih, they have had pretty grieve aggressive move it's a big rush. i find it a little bit kind of perplexing that we are talking about releasing from the strategic petroleum reserve whether the entirety of 2010 to 2014 we were above the oil price. a fragile recovery coming down but remarkable on a kind of a gdp adjusted basis on

a consumer wallet nowhere near critical levels. >> it happened fast and we're in an interventionist mode where there's -- also never had trillions of dollars of stimulus thrown in the economy. >> i think because inflation suddenly is a political issue. >> a problem. >> they have solutions to it. >> made a big move in yields do you see that as a reflection of energy? >> you have better growth, demand subtle in terms of supply. cap x coming down. so it's a pretty tight market at this point i've been encouraged by every company that said they're increasing production and lowering cap x disciplined and surprising let's see how they respond to

higher oil prices. i don't think they will turn the spigots on but who knows i still like a bar bell approach within an energy big chevron. services and then e and p i like up 117% year to date so they have moved quite a bit. tomorrow morning with ceo of natural gas producer eqt on "worldwide exchange. "love that show. costco revenue jumping pressures are hitting the bottom lines. costco september net sales rose nearly 16% as customers return to stores in person, as the preponderance of the evidence fears ease, e-commerce sales rose 10%. long time favorite for you and

jim cramer on the investment letter are you still an owner have you added >> i sold it i took my gains. >> what? >> 38 times forward -- i know. i'm trading at 38 times forward earnings it's an amazing compounder an amazing company i feel like there are better values in the reopen names but make no mistake. this sales number was amazing. 28.4% comp on a 2-year stack and overseas cash of $3.1 billion. this is something if it ever were to pull back i would get back in. >> but to steph's point it's fairly expensive a lot of that ims that look attractive are still pretty expensive despite the multiple -- >> no doubt.

costco is exceptional with valuation. it is like a subscription business. >> it is. >> yes exactly. the membership fees. and that distinguishes it. target we pointed out that's had a meaty pullback and looks cheaper. a chance to get in on a pretty good omnichannel retailer and almost different companies people don't necessarily quite treat them as the same animal but you are right. consumer discretionary in general remans fully valued. >> among the biggest percenters with phil lebeau. >> a move higher this is an extension of the last four to five weeks we have seen the shares move up 14% to 15% they still have pricing power. we saw the third quarter in

terms of average transaction price just the chip outlook should say improving not strong improving. there is investment optimism with electric vehicles people saying after the gm meeting yesterday you might look at them saying they have a roadmap why whether they can execute it is a big question speaking of electric vehicles we get tesla's annual meeting later on today and listening to see if elon musk has anything noteworthy to say. back to you. >> phil, thank you so much steph, what do you think about those traditional u.s. autos now as they get increasingly ev sen trick? >> i think they're interesting for sure very cheap i thought mary barra's comments of 30 million connected vehicles

by the end of the decade is impressive but i play it through apiv they have ev exposure. outgrowing the market by 10 percentage points and higher content so i'm playing the autos that way but completely understand why people would be interested in these others because they are so cheap at this point. >> ford and gm making 5% moves on a day of a tesla shareholder meeting is sbrising. are they starting to behave like growth names >> i think they're revalued. what to me is happening is today's shortage is tomorrow's demand buying the stocks as an investor with the next and beyond and another report from the used car price index. made another new high so that moo ens pricing should be strong

with fill-in of inventories if the chip shortage is rectifies and feel as if they are cheap opposed to value traps at these levels that explains a lot of the move. >> still up almost a percent on the dow. do you pay attention to the intraday action going through a rotational moment for markets like at the moment >> i try not to. i try to look for opportunities. if anything out of whack i look to buy if it pulls back, trim a little bit. i'm a longer term investor people are nervous ahead of the jobs number tomorrow beginning of october is voyle till and then set yourself up for the seasonal swoosh if you will into the end of the year which i expect seeing seasonal strength have some dry powder on the

sideline so i call it silly season for opportunities to buy. >> we have just a little over two minutes to go in the trading day. what are you seeing on the market day internals >> deflating a little bit. didn't quite prove to be more of a technical continuation of the bounce and are pulling back ahead of the jobs number strong internally most of the day. see that upside volume in the new york stock exchange names. domi dominating downside. before it was 85% advanced volume and moderating there, too. we have small caps outperforming. take a look at energy relative to transports. transports have dipped negative on the day and so you see there they were kind of tracking pretty well. there you have it. over a year.

transports lagged energy and today a fade to the downside volatility index sleepy. a three-day rally taking the joos out and remaining elevated. we have the jobs number and still october and still in this choppy zone 3% below the all-time high. >> tech is holding up relatively well the 10-year yield at 1.57. the dow up high of the day just over 500. since staging that big turn around yesterday intraday and closed higher we have been higher whether it's the news of the debt ceiling compromise, kicking that can down to december or what a positive vibe united health care is contributing most sectors are higher. consumer discretionary in the lead with ford and gm driving that sector today.

the nasdaq is up 1%. small caps up 1.5% so far because of this rally and this comeback we have seen s&p 500 is looking at the best week since august going into a friday, of course we have that to get through. welcome to the "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost with sara eisen and mike santoli we closed off the highs but still up a full percent. one sector is negative y utilities. coming up double line's jeff sherman to discuss today's rally and how the key jobs report could impact critical levels for

treasury yield just stephanie link still with us and priya misra joins the conversation mook, to you and how we finished the session, slippage into the close. keeps that debate going about have we answered the question of the bottom yet. >> exactly we talked for days how you didn't have the mad flush. but i think you're encouraged by the traction that the market found over three days. needed new bad news to get it lower. it always feels tricky and see both sides into the technical moment the rally stopped where if you said maybe you have to rethink the view and preserves uncertainty. two sided probabilities heading into a jobs number i say the market probably wants to go into it on a neutral

footing and more or less what we did. >> are stocks and bonds core lated right now? it was easier to blame higher treasury yeeltds when the nasdaq was selling off and especially on a day like today with better performing tech. >> right i would say that correlation is all over the place and at a point where the central bank is changing policy, easing or coming out of easing where we are right now i think that becomes very unstable, positive or negative. i would say that there was a time right after the september fed meeting and pricing in removal of stimulus. real rates ising that risk assets don't tend to like it. the move in the last week is much more about inflation, stagflation. we are not sure we are stagnating here. i think the rise in rates is led

by inflation expectation allowing equities to do well but if rates rise it's self limiting because the fed will not respond to supply chain led. so i think that we'll come to a level where interest rates will stop increasing but to the point on the correlation it is all over the place i don't think treasury necessarily will hedge equities as well as their in the past. >> steph you mentioned you use the volatility to top up or take profits when things get really out of whack what is the most stark example of that in the last week or so >> i'm tempted to take profits in energy at 117% year to date and exploded most recently but they announced an accelerated buyback program and to me of $2

billion and i want to ride that wave for time and they have been so disciplined which is so unusual in terms of cap x and on the radar. on the margin i'm trimming faang because i feel like they may sit here for a while so i'm underweight apple and underweight amazon now took some gains earlier this week that i had but for the most part i look for opportunities where you see weakness on earnings silly season is silly season i say it because stocks act really funny around numbers so i like to take advantage of that where i have strong conviction we were talking about active before the stock acts poor on the earnings i'll be looking to buy that. i'm hoping to get a costco down 5% or so, probably not, looking for opportunities to buy for

sure. >> what about the other lose ores off earns nike bed bath & beyond? >> okay. so fedex haven't been able to execute for years. they still haven't integrated tnt. it is crazy. i think fedex has issues nike, the only problem is costco problem. trading at a high multiple but absolutely i would be looking at those -- that costco and nike. the compounders if they were to pull back. coke is one that's lagged. looking to buy more of that. i want to hear what they have to say say and if they have the pricing power that i think they have >> sorry weekly jobless claims to discuss those with coming in earlier of

course steve liesman with a look at the employment picture ahead of the jobs report tomorrow. >> thanks. the street looking for an in between number tomorrow. not as weak as august or as strong as 1 million jobs added in may and june and one to keep the fed on to track to taper 500 thousa 500,000. that's the mark. and another strong month of earnings gains is 0.4% adp stronger than execed data from the hr software company ukg is correctly pointed to surprises and now looks in line with the consensus. decline of workforce tiftd correlates with payroll growth how much plus or minus that's watched carefully one annual itself thinks there's a low bar.

he writes we now believe the fed will go ahead and taper in november that was 235,000 another reason that might be true both decline in jobless claims today down pretty big and the high frequency data suggests gathering strength in payrolls entering october could be stronger from here. >> i feel like powell himself lowered the bar basically said it doesn't have to be a knockout report my question is, maybe this is pointing to the strength you talk about millions of americans rolled off the unemployment rolls and i wonder how that impacts the hiring and pressure on wages with the extra supply. >> i think that's right. it's a very, very dynamic job

situation right now. i think people are more comfortable than they were going back to work you lost the jobless claims. the jobless benefits they fell off. it looks like schools are more reliably open than early september and an important part of it. so i think september is really an in between month. we'll get passed this. maybe do somewhere in the 400 to 600 range and then perhaps have a stronger job growth come october. >> mike, in terms of what the market is likely to react to feels like yields have come down a little bit and more focused on cpi than the jobs number. >> they have been. you have the lift today in yield. the debt ceiling solution means you don't have to bid. more coming. we didn't have a big doubt about that market wants the economic picture to be solid. if it believes the fed on the path to taper almost no matter

what and watching the yield complex respond is probably going to be the tell as to what we're already positioned for. >> what's priced in as far as taper? the amount the time line? is it already in the mark? >> i think the start is in the market to the discussion earlier even getting 300,000 number tomorrow we think the fed tapers. that's priced in chair powell suggested an earlier end to tapering. so much faster pace. i think there's an effect here looking for higher move in rates. looking for 175 on the 10-year by year end and more of tapering to be priced in and watching the front end because it is heights. i think the market will get past tapering chair powell can tell you that

the two policies are far apart but they're somewhat linked. both outlook based policy just if inflation is high do they start to hike sooner the market is pricing in the first rate hike next year. we think that's an optimistic outlook on the economy if that starts to nudge in further then rates can go up a lot more i think then we look at much higher rates and the view is to take sometime. >> sara? >> steve, inflation really more than jobs that could force the fed's hand. >> yeah. i think that's right but i want to go back to what uyou were talking about. beyond the fed i think the market cares about the growth story here all -- a lot of growth data is negative third quarter numbers coming down i think tomorrow the market will

look to these job numbers as confirmation of growth in a high number could be a risk on scenario and a low number could be wait a second maybe i'm concerned about growth i don't know if mike wants to weigh in on how much real concern -- we took growth for granted and i think there's some question whether or not we'll have this inflation without the growth we'd like to see a strong jobs number tomorrow to underpin that belief in growth. >> yeah. absolutely investors want to see some kind of evidence that we have a reacceleration third quarter looks like it's trending, petering out so we have had a better number versus expectations the last three or nfour weeks. >> jobs can be a lagging indicator. >> no doubt about it i don't think there's any reason to think that jobs story's coming to a stand still. at least not from a demand perspective. if you -- if it looks like a

labor/supply issue the fed is saying that's not what we target anyway. >> we'll leave the conversation there. thank you. good to see you. after a rough start to the year tesla shares up 27% a top analyst tells us what he wants to hear from musk in the company's annual shareholder meeting next hour. and the outlook for treasury yields when 'rwee joined by jeff sherman. back in two minutes.

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in business, setbacks change everything. so get comcast business internet and add securityedge. it helps keep your network safe by scanning for threats every 10 minutes. and unlike some cybersecurity options, this helps protect every connected device. yours, your employees' and even your customers'. so you can stay ahead. get started with a great offer and ask how you can add comcast business securityedge. plus for a limited time, ask how to get a $500 prepaid card when you upgrade. call today. breaking news on the debt ceiling. ylan >> the senate will vote tonight on that debt limit deal. senate majority leader schumer said the senate will have four hours of debate over the agreement and then move into final passage. there had been some last minute wrangling over how the deal

would go down as gop senators were unhappy about the idea of just moving to a simple up or down vote and the senate will take the step as well that will require both republicans and democrats to vote to advance this bill. still it is expected to pass sometime tonight and then needs to head to the house before going to the president's desk but we should start to see the resolution of this debt ceiling drama in the senate tonight when they hold that vote. >> do we do it all over again in december >> we do stay tuned for two part, two sara. >> great tesla's annual shareholder meeting in about an hour from now. joining us on what investors can expect is an analyst what do you hope to hear >> we like to hear on their solar initiative

the branded beyond autos what we will get is probably an undate on the ai fsd that will probably roll into what people take as robo taxi type estimates. and so we're really hoping on the solar which is the brand of tesla's, really the difference between our call and most of the others on the street. >> the backdrop is interesting for this not so much for tesla but competitors of gm and ford with real competition both saw 5% moves today. gm with an ambitious to double revenues because of the ev production how does that impact tesla inside and the company and for investors? >> you're right. it is busy some of the other companies have

seen the success of tesla and taken a page from their playbook seen it from vw, from gm this week it's a reason we think there's a great opportunity to play the supply chain in terms of seeing this large trend that's really inflecting at this point and tesla has been the leader here but you are seeing more competition that are following in tesla's footsteps. >> what is your top pick with that supply chain in mind? >> wolff speed why changed the name from crate. we call it the cry of the wolff but we have a $136 price target. they make silica carbide and makes the ev more efficient and allows companies like tesla, tesla was the first to use this, move to higher voltage arc

architectures and think of it similar to miles per gallon in the ev vernacular. >> as the chip shortage gets worse how does tesla deal with it >> take gcm as a quick anecdote. they just inked a deal with wolffspeed just announced yesterday based on the assurance of supply program so we are seeing how this chip shortage is playing into how companies think about going in oem direct to the upstream manufacturer of that chip to ink those types of deals. with tesla we have seen that all along in terms of vertical integration and partnering elon went to buy land in nevada to try to secure lithium rights.

we are seeing moves like that and that is playing out here. >> when you see these estimates for evs by 2030 from tesla or traditional auto, do you believe the numbers? what do you think is a total sales of evs of percent taj of all autos? >> it is a great question. if i believe the numbers it depends on which numbers we have our forecast that are out there. i think the easiest number to think about is 30% by 2030 is kind of a way to remember that quickly and whether you see the announcements by gm, 30 models by 2025, vw group, aggressive perspective and tesla continues to increase the -- 20% market

share and not slowing down so definitely i think the over/under favors the over at this point in time. >> investor day in austin, texas. i think investors are interested because they're supposed to make the trucks there right? are we expecting to learn anything especially with the competition out there? >> two things are important about cyber truck or we think. one is the shift to the 4680 battery type why going back and say i could throw this acronyms and different technologies but at the heart of tesla what they do different than everybody else is elon says why do we have to do this just -- they shy away from that traditional role and the 4680 is a classic example of making a battery with a different packaging more

efficient. does the electron need to go from a to z to get to z or is there a faster way to do that? we think that austin in texas is key to that to power cyber truck. timing associated with that is pushedback maybe an update. i think what we'll get is kind of a -- some more on solar and other initiatives and that battery is key to unlocking a lot of them. >> thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you for having me. after the break from factories to shippers to retail stores we are taking you on a global journey to understand the problems facing the supply chain. plus, is it too late to get in on the reopening trade? a look at whether the return to normal names are starting to look expensive we'll be right back.

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a market flash on the covid test maker. >> quidel is raising guidance. it is boosting its revenue

guidance to $406 million up from 375 million. they said the sars tests, covid test, up 135% year over year and also saying they secured a 12-month contract worth approximately $284 million to supply the u.s. government with more than 51 million at-home tests for the federal government as well. these are the rapid tests. with the surge in the delta variant we have seen a big surge in people needing to test. shares here up 9% coming in here at this hour back over to you. >> nice move there so many companies have been warning of supply chain issues lately today cnbc is doing a deep dive into the problems and how they impact wall street and consumers. we look at the supply chain of an iconic toy.

>> the challenges for the global supply chain begin on the factory floor. a stronger yuan, higher wages and twice the stuffs means the cost of a care bear is up 25% since january. boxes are stacked here for one to two months compared to no waiting time before the pandemic. >> we don't know when customer can give us the shipping space we don't know. >> reporter: once the bear leaves the factory it takes 15 to 20 days to arrive at a u.s. port like l.a. having the products stuck in china is just the beginning. >> maybe it is on the ship it is so busy here at the port of los angeles today 65 ships parked. takes ten days to get an appointment to be unloaded but longshore men are not working 24/7. >> we can and are willing to the problem is where do the truckers and it is not their fault but where do they take the

cargo? >> truck appointments go unuses because warehouses are full and 650,000 containers full of goods on ships or on the docks waiting for someone to come move them. >> more ways to move containers to chicago with 200% than 2019 why half of the care bears stop in chicago on the way east of the mississippi. but these the transfer points are backed up with containers delayed without workers or equipment to haul them away. >> shortages across the supply system causingthe problems. >> also trucking rates are 91% higher than prepandemic making the trip more expensive and take longer. >> it can take twice as long for a product like this care bear to get from a chinese factory to this store in massachusetts. the journey cost toymaker basic

fund 620% more. >> we add a freight surcharge at the end of the invoice and the retailer will have to determine whether they incorporate that into the selling price. >> this store sells them for $16.99 and they have enough inventory for now. >> we see that it's taking weeks to months to get product into the store and encourage you to buy now if you see something that you want to give this christmas. >> let's bring in courtney reagan a good look at the kinks in the system right now at every step of the way a delay with labor shortages or getting supply what are you hearing from these companies? a lot of them retail about how long this is going to last. >> reporter: yeah. that is the really tricky question, sara, because a ltd. of this started when covid

kicked up overseas and things delayed when factories and ported shut down and then swell of demand from those of us buying the goods in the united states and so i believe that the port of l.a. manager said it is ten las of travel into five lanes. people think it won't decrease until 2022 at least. >> increase in the shipping costs for care bear at $17 what's the money number roughly speaking for the shipping costs? 600% sounds massive but $5 to hike the price >> reporter: yeah. so they won't give us the details of everything that goes into the cost of a care bear and

gave percent tajs but can be as low as $12.88 at walmart with economies of scale and basic fund is telling us that it now the cost just the transportation cost input into the cost of that bear is almost a quarter of the total cost used 3% to 4% so that is a very big increase in that cost and a lot of it is being born by the toymaker opposed to retailers because you can't be charging $50 for a care bear. even though demand is high they won't settle for a price that high and that's the tricky part that the lower priced goods don't have that much flexibility to raise the prices to the end consumer. >> i think $16 sounds high for a care bear actually already i guess that's if you can get it, too.

right? if they're in stock. >> reporter: that's such a good point. so this store just for example told us they put the order in june 21 arriving september 23. took about ten and a half weeks. normal time could be on the long end five weeks but they said we ordered the first shipment in february and thought they might arrive in three weeks and thought they were being cautious placing an order in june and holding this katd log as an example. this is a holiday catalog and said the toys in here they don't have and don't think they will have this pop it. the pencil case ordered in april just arrived the notebooks they ordered 80 and got 12. >> thank you very much i always - >> don't get care bears? >> i didn't $16 is that much

getting my god children those gifts -- >> just a little stuffed animal. >> i get ripped off. >> or a good gift giver. >> best money ever spent so i think well worth it. >> won't find the pencil case. go to mike santoli with a look at reopening stocks. >> we're talking about the most dir directly impacted businesses from the covid shutdowns and what the reopening might mean for them live nation being concerts both of them have outperformed the s&p 500. that was the market peak before we did fall off the cliff. clearly the market thinks things are coming back for strong or just piling into anything that seems like a reopening play. here's a chart of a valuation of a basket of stocks whose

businesses are most directly levered to a full reopening. enterprise value against five-year average sales. a total kind of capitalization measure. so clearly we are pretty much at peak valuation for the businesses naturally a snapback wh the argument is maybe the most affected stocks had largely the run already and if you believe the economy will do better it might not be the directly reopening play just things to do better as the economy quickens >> thank you a firm is one of wall street's big winners after announcing the buy now pay later partnership with target. coming up an analyst that thinks there's another stock to buy right now instead. plus doubleline's jeff sherman earyhe outlook for bonds as

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welcome back time now for a news update with shep smith. >> you are the best.

thank you? j here's what's happening. president biden pushing for vaccine mandates today in chicago. he's in elk grove, illinois, rallying support of the private sector mandate for all companies with more than 100 workers to require vaccination or weekly testing. the white house said it's home to the united airlines, one of the first to require shots for 67,000 employees. the push to vaccinate young kids one step closer to reality. pfizer filing for emergency use authorization of vaccines. the advisory committee set to meet october 26 and shots could go into arms by halloween. 18 former nba players charged with defrauding the league's benefit plan out of $4 million according to an indictment today the u.s. attorney's office said they were caught in part because of some really sloppy paperwork why one xarm a former player

submitted a clam for dental work in beverley hills. according to prosecutors he was actually playing basketball in taiwan the day of that dental procedure in beverley hills. none of the former players responded to request for comment. much more and the details of what they were expensing the ringleader's role on "the news" 7:00 eastern cnbc. care bear wilfred, back to you. >> i did get it. i was worried i wouldn't get any description. not like sara got. >> everyone's care bear, wilf. >> thank you. >> everyone's cranky care bear. >> i think $16. >> 20 pounds. >> they're really good and soft those. anyway shep is watching but you got the best

how do i earn the best. >> be the best. doubleline's jeff sherman on how to position your portfolio plus a firm shares up more than 170% since going public in january and the stock higher again today after announcing a partnership with target. an analyst on whether the stock looks expensive after this huge n-ruup it's another day. and anything could happen. it could be the day you welcome 1,200 guests and all their devices. or it could be the day there's a cyberthreat. only comcast business' secure network solutions give you the power of sd-wan and advanced security integrated on our activecore platform so you can control your network from anywhere, anytime.

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treasury yeels rose again today after the labor department released stronger than expected numbers. jeffrey sherman joining us thank you. >> thank you. >> what will move yields more, the jobs print or cpi next week? >> both are very important numbers. as you said with the jobless claims everybody focused on the initial claims and the downward trend there but what we have been following for 18 months is continuing claims, continue by definition to receive unemployment benefits and given that the extraordinary measures from the covid and c.a.r.e.s. act expired around labor day we are seeing that data trickle through and a significant dropoff in claimants last week you saw 6.5 million people drop out of receiving

benefits and 1.3 million today come out and roughly 4 million people receiving benefits in the most recent print versus 12 million plus we are at a point to see what it means for the labor market cpi is on investors' minds and the fed talking about the target of inflation next weir is 2.2% is very puzzling to us trying to figure out how they think it will dissipate and the transitory effects disappear overnight so both are very important and sets the stage for a catalyst for rates to move and that's to the upward side. >> why have rates been moving higher in the fast of gdp downgrades slower growth. >> yeah, no, no. it is a mixed bag here, too.

what you have seen is seen improvement from the delta variant. an uptick in vaccination rates globally and we have seen improvement in economic sentiment. look at the jobs numbers and the adp this week and the bond marketis digesting inflation and the head winds seeing in the -- towards the end of the second quarter and the third quarter are some of those dissipating. gdp is downgraded an enthen still talking about a growth rate analyzed rate of 3% to 4.5% and with the challenges to see with supply chains, with the covid new wave with the delta variant all of those things drove yields down in the second quarter and now seeing the recovery you see it in the rest of the world, as well seeing the openings through the euro zone. higher vaccination rates within emerging market countries and

starting to see economic data improve globally there's downgrades and coming off a extremely high levels. >> you expect rates to increase on the long end. what chance of short end next year >> right early next year it is close to nil. i do think it's a low probability because the chairman himself said that they need to get through the tapering of the bond purchases before they consider raising rate just the chairman said they want to be wrapped up with the bond buying by middle of 2022. so that sets the stage for something after that so at earliest you just say mid-2022 is june, that says rate hikes the second half of the year. 23 you look at the 2-year and look at the implied rate that kind of puts you at a december rate hike and the two-year at

the highest level today than it's been since the pandemic started. right? since we normalized late march, early april last year. the bond market is starting to say perhaps the transitory isn't relevant anymore and listen to the fed. not talking about transitory anymore and achieved the inflation goal and want to start tapering so i think every single across the bond market is not long rates but it's 2-year and the 5-year thinking about the inflation component and seeing both start to move so right now the entire yield curve is moving but on the back end right now. >> so really quickly, where does the 10-year end the year >> i think we'll test the s1.75

of the year. as i have been telling you for a few weeks we see fair value by the models that we run that they're old school not taking into account the stimulus and say it should be in the high 2s if not low 3s and takes time to get there and i wouldn't be surprised if we get close to the 2% 10-year by year end. >> thank you. >> i don't know about care bears. sorry about that. >> we learned quite a lot about them today. >> i'm the expert all of a sudden. >> i want to see the jay powell care bear. >> yes care bear's the new bobblehead. >> how much to pay for jay powell >> that's a premium. shares higher -- >> freaky. >> on the back of the tie-up with target. we'll dig in with an analyst

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shares of a firm rallying on

news that it was partnering ahead of the holiday season. that stock is up more than 170%. let's bring you in chris, my first question on days like yesterday when the stock moved up 20% on target news, even more when the announcement came with amazon, does that correlate with the business that a firm will obtain by unlocking the huge consumer base >> absolutely. thanks for having me on. we have every one of these transactions or negotiations that go through. big retailers does add to the outlook for the company. we are in the early days so there are some first mover advantages as well you want to tie up with the big companies. amazon has been working with

traditional banks for years, chase and sin crony. so these do matter >> chris, was the reaction overdone to that announcement or legitimate >> i was a little surprised because target has already been working with the firm for a little bit so that wasn't really news i do think there is a lot of interest and momentum buying of the stock after the amazon transaction. and shortage as well that may be causing it to move >> chris, we saw one of the competitors get bought by square you say there is a better buy in the buy now, pay later >> i'm recommending sezzle

they are based in the u.s. but went public in australia a few years ago because they could go after i pay which got bought out by square. they have had a different stock performance. the stock is down after the second quarter results, partly due to an integration pilot program. the stock is cheaper and as a smaller player, much more upside and takeout potential. >> we just flashed up some names on the screen. is clarna a future rival

>> it is the 800-pound grilli. we don't talk about it as much it is based in stockholm i think they plan to go public in they said late 21, probably 2022 at this point they are bigger in terms of volume, but just not as big in the united states. >> josh brown likes that >> tbc, a rare tech listing for the uk >> good for you. >> thank you >> thanks for having me. >> the september jobs report every investor needs to be watching back after a couple. risks, charges and expenses. go to flexshares.com for a prospectus containing this information. read it carefully. i promise - as an independent advisor - for a prospectus contto put the financialion. well-being of you

and your family first. i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com that building you're trying to sell, - you should ten-x it. - ten-x it? ten-x is the world's largest online commercial real estate exchange. if i could, i'd ten-x everything. like a coffee run... don't just sell it. ten-x it. paola needs a parachute. so, salesforce customer 360 unites your marketing, sales, commerce, service, and it teams around her. so they can deliver a great experience from anywhere. ♪ (whistle) ♪

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investors will be watching for the september jobs report. they are forecasting a jump of almost 500,000 after a disappointing 235,000. don't miss our interview with cecilla tomorrow and excited about this jobs

report >> some drama has been injected back into it based on what the market has done. we should have catch-up. whether this month or in coming months, based on spending. and how the market has metabolized. it's an important tell how people are leaning going into it it's unusual and unlikely that september 2 was the stock market high for the year. it could happen, but it's unusual. does this feed into the idea the fed could be entering in autopilot mode when the market is not ready for it? >> 500,000 would be good because it's an uptick from the last report which was 235,000 it bodes well that we had millions of americans come off

the labor roles. there are jobs aplenty and more people looking for them. i think it doesn't matter. powell said as long as we get something half decent we will continue on our timeline >> i think there is no question it will happen i think the market is jumpy about the prospect in november you have to see the markets get more stressed. >> the rate hike if the unemployment matters now because it tells you about the labor market >> it's highly unlikely we will be negative by the end of the week, but looking good despite the late day sell-off today. >> decent traction you have all of these sentiment measures, people have become down beat. you want to go against that when you see it, at least for the

longer term. it shows you that things are rounding in a place for that adjustment that we had for slightly slower growth last quarter and less aggression on investors part >> we are tracking for the best week for the s&p since august. best sector is utilities that's going to do it for us on a thursday evening. have a good night. "fast money" begins now. >> live, we are looking at new york city times square i'm melissa lee. this is our lineup tonight we are watching shares of tesla kicking off its annual meeting in less than 30 minutes. what you can expect whenni