♪ good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm here with dave faber and jim cramer the premarket is north of flat, as september jobs estimates come down well below estimates. the ten-year yield is backing off the morning high, as attention turns to how the fed will read the data the economy adding less than half as many jobs as forecast in september, held back by the delta variant and a tight labor market. >> plus, cause it tex-la, elon

musk announcing they will move the headquarters and amctalking the naysayers. the jobs number is a function of the labor force participate rate dipping once again. >> i don't think this is all that material. i know initially people were saying it was a shocker. there is, in the industry of travel and leisure, leisure and hospitality, that's customer facing, and that means, well, covid. people are worried delta covid. if you're a teacher, by the way, did you want to go and teach the baby boomer retirement is extraordinary. a lot of what we see almost instantly just didn't pan out. >> you know, there is -- it's hard to fully grasp.

we know we have labor shortages. we talk about it all the time, and then we have a lot of people more still unemployed, but somehow we seem to be you unable to get from here to there rapidly. the participation rate fell from august there were expectations it would actually go up, and 25 to 54 participation rate also falling now from -- that's a four-month low. >> the prime age of the labor force rate, biggest drop since november, so, yeah, people were not looking forward to getting back to work, jim. >> when i spoke to martin busey this week, the ceo of paychecx, it's so clear the boomers have said enough is enough. they do have savings obviously the stock market has been great they do read the numbers

i think we sometimes forget that the 700,000 death number is basically, for many people, something that says it doesn't matter if i get vaccinated i think that's untrue, vaccinations are working, but, david, why risk your life if you're, say, 63 on the idea that some kids might have covid in your class >> i suppose, although i would come back and say if you're vaccinated, are you really risking your life? that remains an area of debate, i suppose, that some people believe that's the case. there were places where it just hits, and those are states where i think you say, you know what i'm not going to work. i wouldn't go to work if i were in alaska. why? it's too dangerous >> one thing it's definitely done is thrown cold water on the idea that ending unemployment

benefits early would have brought people back earlier. that hasn't happened. >> look, we heard that from uber, where they did -- when the benefits ended, they did see an up tick in the number of drivers. >> yeah. >> but some of that was in texas. texas, which had unbelievably good job creation numbers, still for northerners, seems like a wild west situation. >> we are at 4.8% overall, though. >> that's pretty good. >> on the unemployment rate, which is the first time -- >> we got that by the wrong denominator. that's people dropping out. >> i agree that's the key question, austan goolsbee asked that question on "squawk box," and steve was able to answer it. >> how about we just admit this release is not as important as we thought, the average wages niggling, not just sitting here there's a wage inflationary

spiral i look at this and say one thing, jay right again i'm telling you, jay powell -- i wouldn't play him in rummikube >> right about what? >> no need to do anything yet. >> way, we're expecting taper in november, right? no need to do that >> no, no, no i'm say -- >> no need to actually tighten. >> and no need to ridicule this man. a lot of people ridicule him i hear some people says he's a marxist. if i was one of tore heckling people -- >> paul lind or george gobel. >> trying to get him to stop it, you know, mr. powell, you did a good job this month. no one ever says that. who are these people

why don't they give -- remember the people who used to kiss up mr. powell, i guess you feel good about this number, no, it's mr. powell, when did you stop beating your wife? i'm sick of those press conferences. last night, as we got the nail-biter in the senate, there was some discussion about now that that decision has been pushed to december, maybe it makes the november meeting more fraught? >> i would like to see whether delta is really done look, "new york times" does this great analysis they said for two weeks it's been good. for two weeks. what happens in a cold snap and we're all back inside? >> i don't know. i think -- listen, i talked to gottlieb the other day that's who i rely on to a certain extent they thinking while prevalence may rise a bit, it won't rise to the previous levels.

>> i agree, but i think anyone who has made serious predictions on covid has often been made to look foolish there's a lot of greek letters >> you really think it's people from going back to work. >> david -- >> i understand people still claiming health reasons for not going to the office, by the way, they're doing everything else. the subway today, i was -- friday is clearly nobody -- >> where is everybody? >> you should say it's not a workday -- it's not a day you go to the office, maybe ever again, except the three of us the two of you are wearing ties for some reason. >> i like ties. >> you should wear a t-shirt that will pill more. >> i have plenty of shirts. >> yes, there are many people -- i think a 63-year-old bus driver, retired person, goes back and does a great job, is thinking, you know what? there's a lot of kids in this

bus that have not taken the pfizer vaccine, which was just applied, i don't feel like coming home to infect my family members. there's a lot of family members who haven't taken the shot i just think we are way too clothesered here about what's going on in the country. it's not like there's no covid just two weeks ago, it peaked. i still know there's plenty of people who won't go to a game. they think there's too much risk. >> so i guess once again we're waiting on an oral antiviral, and approve for 5 to 11-year-olds >> yes. >> that's the point where we're ask fresh questions. >> and then we'll be wondering what's holding it up >> look, dr. gottlieb, who you referenced, is talking again, reminding people, sore is dr. topol, my absolute favorite, the cdc, it is airborne, aerosol i'm going to do something that's

not dangerous. >> i'm not doing that. you could give me the flu. fist bump. >> do you know that gottlieb never shook hands, even before this >> true. >> major you see him, and you they hi hates you. >> back to the moment where we talked about -- >> david was hugging me. >> i would rather hug that can shake hands. you can't just -- you could come off as a, you know what. >> i have a three moderna hug. my name is cramer, and i'm on my way to. >> can i get a third moderna i thought you were not allowed -- >> are you a booster bandit? >> there was a period when the president -- i went to cvs, they want, here, take one jeremy faust says you have to

be -- there is diminishing returns if you take a fourth there are other issues that come into play. i know that's far afield from you and what's happening in business that we have to cover. >> we do. musk did speak yesterday, tesla is relocating from california to texas, citing the high cost of living appeared tight real estate market as two of the reasons behind that decision he made the announcement at the company's shareholder meeting, and did say that tesla plans to ramp up protection in california, and that manufacturing gives his company an edge. >> tesla's long-term competitor advantage will be manufacturing. eventually all cars will be autonomous the thing that is the hardest to, i think, sort of copy is manufacturing. >> implications here given the fact that fremont is going to grow, not shrink?

>> look, i think all the things he said are great. now you've got a bunch of people raising numbers again, raising price targets. i think this one is terrific, but david, psychologically, what does it mean to give up on california >> i don't think they're giving up on california, but they are reducing -- listen, there's any number of companies that we know -- hp, oracle, tesla now -- who have moved their headquarters or indeed process of moving out of the state of california, in part because of high tax rates, and any number of other issuesing housing? texas has been a huge beneficiary of that. you don't need me to sit here and say that you've heard it from so many others, of course, austin, certainly, perhaps the most significant and growing city in the state, in part because of the influx of tal aren't a--

talent if you go back to austin, michael dell had a lot to do with that, didn't he >> yes, he did starting that company there when there weren't a lot of other high-tech companies. states are always competing with each other it's not like california is losing its edge in innovation. it's not there's so many talented people in that state, as there are here in new york, but it doesn't mean we aren't losing people. cathie woods decided to move to florida the other day. >> i do think that tennessee -- i used to speak to wells fargo about the areas where they said was hottest. they said tennessee over and over. >> nashville is going bananas. i'm going to nashville. >> no, you're not. >> i'm going to see the rolling stones in nashville. >> honestly?

>> i'll let you know >> i'm such a loser. >> yes, you were. >> i didn't need that verification we should quickly play this. >> basically, if we can get the chips, we can do it. so hopefully this chip shortage will alleviate soon, but i feel confident of being able to maintain something like this, at least above 50%, for quite a while. >> tie s-- taiwan semi is sold out. we need to pressure global foundries, with full feature ch chips. >> mexico is saying that ford is going to close for a couple days this is the season where you need production.

the user car numbers are insane. there was just a gigantic jump up. >> there was, but it was cited by those saying it was tran transitory now it's back up. >> that was you. >> i love you, anyway, because of the unbelievable full day you spent with those activists [ laughter ] >> look, there's no chip shortage end i was speak to go marvell technologies they're willing to work with some people. 20% of their business is automotive -- well, it's nxpi. what are they doing? where are the chips going? the chinese are still hoarding. >> they are? >> and what did that sub bump into >> our sub, you mean >> yeah. >> i'm not sure. >> how many flyovers will they

do while we're waiting to have talks with them? they're flying over taiwan, we want to talk. >> and we've had troops there over a year. >> we know it's -- >> it's bond-like in that interchange with sean conry and goldfinger you know do you want me to talk >> no, i want you to -- >> dominic chu said that daniel craig has already surpassed sean connery. >> no, as a better bond. >> longer serving, better and with a higher gross in nominal dollars. >> and he lives two blocks from me >> yes. >> very exciting. katy huberty will talk about the apple supply change, and we'll chat with the labor secretary. upgrade of the rails we're back in a moment

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detractors played checkers this weekend it feels more line three dimensional chest. to the nay sayers, i say it loud, choke on that. >> it's absolutely incredible. adam is so boyce truss last thursday when i had a cocktail with him after the presentation, he's basically just daring, daring people to short it daring trying to figure out who they -- who do they think they are to bet against adam aron? he made that very clear. he had numbers from london, from the uk >> he's playing an interesting game, that's for sure. >> it's not a game >> this company, as it was prime to the pandemic issued, would the stock be anywhere near where

it was if it didn't have the meme treatment? >> remember, he turned the shareholder base -- >> that's not answering the question would -- in a typical world pre-meme, pre-pandemic, with this kind of financial performance, this kind of attendance, the answer is no. >> the answer is no. >> of course not so how can you make an argued to people that a $20 billion value over this makes sense on a fundamental basis? >> i'll tell you how i make that judgment if you wanted to sell 500,000 shares, you could get it, so it makes sense. >> when is adam aron going to sell stock >> he's not selling. adam aron is playing offense this is adam aron from norwegian cruise, from the 76ers, don't go against him. >> to david ace point, though,

the market cap is double the domestic box office pre-covid. >> stock is up 2,000%. >> the bond is going to do great. i might even go see it, not that that matters. >> he owns this market he has the power to go to bob chapek and say -- no one has had this power. >> more power than the producers of the content >> i think the power has shifted. don't give me that look. >> i've got to give you that look. >> how much work have you done >> did you have a cocktail with them >> it was. >> in person >> he hugged me. then i had a binax. >> for those who don't know, it's a covid test. >> you give me 15 minutes, i'll

give you the world. we'll get cramer's mad dash in the opening bell in a few moments. really not a lot of reaction, though yields did come down a touch. we're back in a moment your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire the pursuit is on. matchingthe pursuit ofription. outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential.

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all right much welcome back. we're going to get to a mad dash here, count you down to an opening bell before we wrap up trading, but it's been a good week for stock exchange, overall, at least if you're long. >> right david, i don't know if you read my revamped what i'm looking at. >> i usually do. if you joined the investing club, you see my thoughts going in i was looking at this astounded at the union pacific upgrade by jpmorgan, having just had lance fritz on, when i was coaching him to be more bullish, and he was saying there had be a cessation of problems in the ports and basically saying, you know what? it's times, starting to show signs of improvement are you skeptical? >> yes, i'm skeptical as i wrote in what i'm looking at most ceos, if you give them any

opportunity to say good things, say it i was so depressed after it, i noted it and put it in my memo this morning. >> though he is -- i don't mean to indicate that some ceos are not, but lance is more of a straight shooter, so to speak? >> he is he's not a cheerleader. >> no. >> and i was clearleading, and he said, jim, you're a little too ahead of yourself. i respect that so much lance has said at times, listen, things are humming he did not give me a things are humming. not at all they also like norfolk southern. you would think they would benefit from the incredible attempt to get more -- but you can't turn the coal switch on. >> no, no. >> it didn't work like that. coal is in decline, despite president trump's -- [ applause ] >> though china, according to

reports, is going -- or mandate its producers increase capacity by 160 million tons. they definitely getting ready for the winter. >> they can offset anything our companies do to be carbon neutral. >> they're carbon positive, but do they get any heat from germany? new york city because they have had to september mercedes-benz and bmws there i'm telling you carbon -- carbon poach and the president wants to meet with him. hey, we have to sell them deere. >> we're carbon-positive still, too. >> carbon -- >> as a country. >> we'll speak to secretary rai mondo. some breadth at the each

it's tricon recent denchally, and portage at the nasdaq. citi today, we expect china's coal crunch to persist, which would force the bates case, the government to mandate a 12% cut in industrial power use in q4, which would increase cities' stagflation rate in china. >> even at these levels, you sell iron or freeport, they can't produce. there was excellent work by bloomberg on what's going on with tether. tether owns a lot of chinese paper, and evergrande is still not doing well there are weaknesses perhaps in the edifice of the chinese

regime >> a default is certainly a real possibility, they haven't been making payments on certain bonds that have been issued overseas. >> there's a lot of paper at debt. >> fantasia is another company there's concern about, and it's an important part of the net worth of your average chinese middle-class person. >> and alibaba had a huge up day yesterday. >> still well below its highs. jack ma is hanging out at home, i think, just not saying much. >> that's the equivalent in this country of house arrest. >> i think he can travel a bit i don't think he wants to leave. >> no? >> no. he owns 30,000 acres in the

adirondacks or something. >> he does >> i don't know. don't quote me on the number, but it's a huge -- way up there. but he's not going add ron dablgs is not that hospitable -- >> i'm a 46er, and did -- your spit freezes on the way down i don't want to tell you what freezes on the way down. >> yeesh katie huberty, the impact is limited right now, and primarily concentrated at small-scale companies at guangdon. the lead tame the longest -- >> people don't realize this is not an incremental phone

my battery has not died. i have it on all day, all night, and it's ever ready. >> you do charge it, though, don't you? >> i don't have to charge it for a full day i don't even pay attention to. it's a remarkable device, plus i'm making movies on it myself i've made some fabulous movie. >> using cinematic mode? >> making movies during the course of your day >> yeah. >> is that when you have some down time? >> yeah -- it's not like j.j. abrams don't forget, verizon is in a race with t-mobile to give them to you, and a third phone company, too >> yeah, though verizon, are they offering an actual discount of any real kind >> did you go to apple >> i paid $1300 for it. >> you did >> that's a lot of money.

>> i've got to get a new phone for my kid i'm going to talk about charter communications. >> i saw the report. i knew you would. the wells piece. i thought it was somewhat interesting. they were basically talking about increased competition from telephone companies, or at least what we would call them. the main one, of course -- i kid, his favorite, at&t putting out a lot of fiber, and a lot of it is? charter territory. it its aggressive fiber plans will not go unnoticed. they expect it to match incoming competition with upgrades of its own. what does that mean? that means capital intensity goes up. that means free cash flow perhaps goes down, or at least is lower than estimated. that seems to be one of the key

reasons for the downgrade. charter shares, by the way, have had a good year, up 8%, a bit higher than our parent company comcast, then altice usa, that stock has been cut in half this year cut in half. atus they say that experience makes us concerned. >> there's no more combinations, right? >> no more combinations. comcast was prevented from buying the old time -- and then it went to the current charter. >> you notify scott, the number one m & a lawyer, said they would try to stop every deal, and the only way a deal would go

through is they just didn't have enough people to stop it >> i think that's overstating it i don't think they want to stop any deal, but any large transaction, even ones you wouldn't consider as large, get a much harder look than they would have in the past you can expect second requests right now they have the right for a third request, even after you close. it's kind of a difficult situation. meanwhile, m & a is near record values, because private equity is still doing a lot of deals. there are still deals in the 2 to 5 billion, you know, up to 10 billion range, that maybe we don't talk about as much, jim. anything will get a hard look. if you're a company that feels

you have to do it, you probably need to be prepared to go to court. you might very well win, but you need to be prepared to do it. >> i agree i'm with you economy adding less than half an many jobs as forecast in september, held by the delta variant and a tight labor market joining us from the biden administration is the commerce secretary gina raimondo. nice to see you again. >> nice to be with you >> a lot of people looking at non-teacher education, as back to school was a big factor in this particular print. do you think maybe the number today understates the real level of non-farm growth >> so -- i do this on a monthly basis and always say the same thing. we can't over-index on any one month. recovery isn't a straight line

we are recovering. we are seeing recovery there is still growth. you're going to see ups and downs month to month what i think is the delta variant is still making it a challenge. we still have to get people vaccinated i give a lot of credit to companies that are mandating vaccines you see, in those instances, like united airlines, they're looking for 2,000 flight attendants and have 20,000 applicants people want to work in places that are safe. my big takeaway is that we have to make the investment president biden wants to make in child care, in elder care. you want women to go back to work testify to be able to send their kids to a high quality, affordable place for child care. i do know that folks need to get vaccinated we have to make investments in child care and home cares.

>> madam secretary, jim cramer great to speak with you again. thank for you coming on "squawk on the street. europe, okay, they were way behind us, now they have passed us portugal is the number one country in the world it's the green bass. the green pass so anywhere you go, you can't get an ice cream cone unless you have a green pass when will we have green passes in this country? >> we won't have a federally mandated, organized green pass, but you're starting to see it, jim, with companies having cre creative solutions, innovative solutions. what i would sea is we really need everybody to be vaccinated. whatever authentication program we come up with would be helpful. we need employers to do mandates individuals to get vaccinated.

we need 90-plus percent of those vaccinated once that happens, the economy will be better, people already safer, people will feel comfortable going back to work it just takes the guesswork out of it. we want the guesswork out of it. everyone ought to be vaccinated. then you don't need the green pass, because you know everyone is vaccinated. >> the participation rate was a dispoint again we can take one month and disregard it, but that's been going on for a while i wonder if it's a concern for you, the idea that people are simply dropping out of the labor force and not coming back anytime soon >> so i'll ask you, if you were a mom and you can't get a job at $20 an hour, but i had to pay $15 an hour to find a baby-sitter, would you do it i'm not sure you would, which is

why we need universal, public pre-k so your 4-year-old kid can go to public school just like they would to kindergarten why we need child tax credit, why we need a robust system of child care in america. we don't have it i can tell you from being governor in rhode island, we don't have it. moms are still having to send their kids with friends, neighbors, grandmothers, it's a paschwork, it's fragmented, it's fragile. until we make those investments, you're going to see women to unable to fully participate in the workforce. madam secretary, i hope you won't mind a question on supply decline. we took note of a slight dropping in shipping containers rates. there's a discussion about dwell times at the rails of the port of l.a are you sensing any of that kind

of maybe not get better, but certainly not getting worse? >> i am. i will say we are working it day and night, seven days a week my team, the white house, secretary buttigieg's team, and we're starting to see incremental improvement. as my friends jim cramer and i talk all the time about semiconductors, there's a lot of work left to do it we're on it. we're putting focus on it, making slow improvement, but there's no denies there's a problem. it is disruptive, and that's why we have to stay focused. >> madam secretary, i got a commitment last night from jim farley, he'll buy everything, all the chips, will you would build those factories in the country. i know there's boundaries in the bill, i notice you're a principal champion in our nation

for semis. ford wants to buy all the chips. gm wants to buy all the chips. it would be highly unusual to have 100% sold out of of a foundry. this is year legacy. i have a commitment from jim farley from last night, he'll give it to you, but i need you to say you will push no matter what >> yeah, so listen, i hope members of the house are listening to this right now. the first step is congress needs to pass the bill to get the $52 over to my office so we can get to work. once we have that, i am confident. i've talked to tim cook at a apple, large consumers, everyone knows we need to make chips in america. i think american companies are willing to step you to guaranties tee demand, then we need to stimulate domestic production yes, we can get it done, but we have to get to work.

the money needs to get over here and we have to get to work now. >> do people understand if the chinese continue the fly-overs with taiwan semi, which is way too important, our companies are going to suffer? i know you know this this is a matter of national security, but also national pride. if we take back leadership under you, secretary raimondo, this would be an extraordinary time for america. >> not if, when. it's going to happen it will secure our national security, just like you said it isn't just autos. it's everything. your entire life runs on semico semiconductors the demand is almost insatiable. the supply is not in america it's heavily concentrated in taiwan yes, it's on us to solve it. we will do that. well, speak of jobs, let's get back to the jobs number this morning, secretary you know, we have a high number

of job openings so we have a very tight labor markets which i guess good news in many ways. >> that's exactly right. i know people work about inflation, but rising wages isn't all that we have far too many americans in certain industries, particularly women who are working full time in poverty put yourself in the position of a home care worker, social workers, certified nurse's assistants thinks women are working 50, 60 hours a week and can't afford a car or a home. increasing wages is a good thing in many ways, but again you have to keep going back to what i said we need investments in

productivity, in job training loot of the jobs are lower wage, you see the help wanted signs on main street. i understand that. i think that will get better as more people get vaccinated, but you also have half a million jobs open for cyber-technicians. we don't have that many people trained for that we need to train these people. we need digital apprenticeships. it goes back to what i was say around chips, congress cannot dawdle get this done. let's invest productivity, which is the best hedge against inflation and the way to get america in the game, competing on our front foot. >> certainly those who are optimistic hope we are ushering

in a new age of productivity thank you, madam secretary >> guys, have a good weekend covering quite a bit of ground there we got a bit of optimism on supply chain. >> remember, she is a terrific business person. venture capital before rhode island, breath of fresh air, a true businessperson. i think that that notion, the same analyst said is possible, would be so incredible, because the port series we just did, showed you by christmastime we won't have what we need. i think what she just said could be a major break by the way, we're going to get the foundries done. >> interesting she mentioned talking for a number of ceos, but it's going to take year. this won't happened just next quarter. >> we can get the equipment --

>> how many years will it take to actually increase chip capacity to a meaningful amount? >> i will get this done. >> really? you're going to have to stop making movies. >> tom caulfield, he's on board. i know gm needs the chips. i know the companies -- >> far be it from me to doubt your ability to get things done, but i think it could take years. >> there's no harm in trying. >> no. >> in my metaverse i'm going to get it done. >> will you look into nuclear fusion for me, too >> it doesn't work, but i have hydrogen trucks coming i'm a journalist, but why not try something positive. >> every journey begin with -- as we go to break, the market is

not really buffeted by the jobs number we did get to 1.6 this morning, but just south of that now we're back in a moment

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if you're wondering what's leading the s&p so far this month? mro's going to lead you up almost 15% in the first few days in the meantime, the dow is down 75 we'll take a short break and be back with more "squawk on the street" in a min

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weplayed dave tepor and i've asked dave to take a dive, because he ridiculed me repeatedly when i was at goldman sachs. but he would not do that he said they're going to come to play i could plead with him to lose the game and it will mean nothing. i did have med tech on last night. >> sign up and find out more cnbc.com/investing club or just use the qr code on your screen w'ba tflill take you there dos cko at i think you're going to like it here. umm, why is everyone... throwing things at me? look, as cfo it's my job to be ready for whatever's next. that's why i have my finance team, randomly hurl things at me.

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. jobs number was disappointing today. 194 k. well below expectations but market's trying to sort it out look at seasonal factors and once again, we're pivoting around 4400. >> we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers we're watching

and the firm notes a 49% drop from the peek levels of the stock in june and that presents a buying opportunity those shares up almost 3% and drug maker alagy, due to an abnormality in a single patient. an investigation is underway with the stock down 41% this morning. and plug power moving higher on an upgrade to equal weight from barkley's. they say the upcoming analyst day could produce a boost to the stock. right now more than 20% on the year as plug power's declined >> we are going to start with the jobs number. unemployment rate down for more we turn to steve leaseman, who did say numbers looked low at first glance what do you say now that you've had an hour and a half to look at it? >> for a number that missed

consensus by lee 00,000, i'm getting mutual to positive commentary from economists salsays risk remains in september, despite the growing headlines. and there it is spelled like the brits do 194. unemployment down 4.8. that's a result of a better household survey earnings up 6.6% and we had a decline in labor participation. big revisions. that's part of the reason people are saying this number is okay we added 169,000 revisions and the work week is one way employers can deal with worker shortages. it's the equivalent of putting more people back to work one sector stands out and that's

what everybody is talking about. the education sector when i add local, state, and private education numbers t declined by 180,000. they didn't fire as many in july so, there weren't as many to hire in september. good retail sector, all doing okay we need stronger numbers from the rebounding sectors to get to the better job numbers they're okay it was the education decline that played a big role many think the numbers and details show a strong enough job market for it to taper and data are showing progress and should meet the, quote, substantial further progress for tapering however, it remains a lot more stringent. it was a month full of challenges hurricane ida, and unemployment benefits and a rocky reopening for some school systems. you put those issues in the

rearview mirror, could lead to the kind of job growth we need to get back the 5 million jobs we lost in the pandemic. >> steve, thanks a lot for laying it all out for us let's bring in j.p. morgan asset management, kelly and chief economist. good morning to you both dianne, so in almost everything, itseems, aside from the headline number, seems relatively encouraging i wonder what this means for the path of the economic expansion and the fed if, you know, cars and semiconductors, we have a supply chain issue for workers >> well, i think we're still -- although the threshold is higher from tapering and rate hikes, i think we're going to see lift off sooner and more aggressive, even as we take these numbers in their hole i think that's what we're going to see from the fed in 2022.

of course, a lot is up for bids on who's going to replace president whose have resigned and whether jay powell gets reappointed as the chairman in january. what i see out there is we're going to have lingering inflation issues due the supply chain problems and these weird, through-the-looking glass labor shortages, despite millions of unemployed despite how good numbers were underneath initial reactions and there were still solid numbers in hurricane ida those are now reseeding to the back door and are on the sidelines. we have to also keep in mind this was the month when millions of workers, over 6 million workers lost their labor insurance and the number of women able to rejoin the labor force was hurt by the fact that schools reopened and went back to quarantine. that inconsistency

the issues of child care and mobility and upscaling, all still, plaguing the labor market, for those on the sidelines, trying to bring them back in the fold that's where the real challenge is going forward >> a lot of restraints still evident going forward. how does that all feed into what we can expect out of company's ability to fill these open jobs to grow as they expect to for how the economy can continue to maybe grow above trend and what does that all mean for the fed as well next year? >> i think the problem is this report is simultaneously weaker and hotter than expected reminds me of an aging marathoner we just don't have the capacity to grow that fast. the pandemic is still casting a pole over the whole economy. i think the key is to try to increase vaccination levels.

whatever can be done to try to normalize the situation. but the reality is we don't have that much slack in the economy so, from the fed's perspective, this is not the labor market they want, but this is the one they have. they have to react to the fact that wages are rising rapidly, the economy is barrelling towards full employment and they need to defuse some of that inflationary pressure because this is just where we are. >> dianne, how do they do that in november, arguably, when they know another debt limit conversation is weeks behind that >> i think they power through. i think that train has left the station and i think they're certainly relieved that the crisis has been averted. there's been another debt crisis there. they'll deal with it as it comes up it may be punted into 2022 it's going to be something that's not going to go away anytime soon, until we get used to using the debt ceiling as a

political pinata, which i don't see happening anytime soon as long as that's not the key issue, they can always stop, if need be and do whatever necessary. we don't want to have the self-inflicted pain of a debt ceiling. i think the fed is going to be much more worried about inflation in 2022, can d spite the lack of everyone coming back to the labor force and the slow return of workers. the risk is that they over shoot and raise rates more rapidly, as they tamp down inflation, because they really don't know what's transitory, what's persistent and at the end of the day, the fed is ultimately most concerned about inflation. >> all right, david. so, put it in perspective for me and what do you say as we look at a 10 year yielding above 1.6% >> this is not good for assets

periods. it says we have a limit on how much earning we can get and i think what you should do is look around the world and recognize there are plenty of countries that got more slack, more running room who can grow faster with less inflation than we will so, i think take advantage of some of the cyclical recoveries, some of the long-term structural in emerging markets. the u.s. economy has done very well u.s. markets are sky high. i think this is a time to think about investing around the world, where some of the issues aren't as obvious as they are in the united states. >> dianne, just wanted to circle back to what you said about you think lift off for the fed, in other words the first rate hike is likely sooner than many expected into nex year

what's your current think nothing to when that all plays out? >> we actually expect to see residual inflation, even as some of the pandemic related things abate. really pushing up inflation in 2022 and from medical costs we expect to see that giving us inflation numbers on the core level, well over 3%, which is something that the fed will have a hard time with in the latter part of 2022 we now have the fed doing lift off in the second half of a 2022 closer to the ending of what they'd like to do in terms of tapering mid2022 than they had liked. they wanted to divorce those two. the risk is it could be closer than that. what i worry about is although the prices will eventually abate, as we get into 2022 and 2024, that is too long for the fed to wait and they could over shoot on those rate hikes as we get into the second half of 2022 and get more nervous and have

something we have not seen in decades, and that is the fed chasing inflation and accidentally slowing down the economy with too rapid a rate hike >> that would be a much older play book than one we've become familiar with. thank you very much for your time today as we head to a quick break, let's give you a look at our roadmap for the next hour. california leaving tesla hits the road for texas. elon musk doubling down on manufacturing as the company's competitive advantage. plus natural gas prices doubling and a lot more on the jobs number with goldman's chief economist, as the dow's up 45. oil now at $80 for the first time since 2014.

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they planned to build at least a couple this year that's been put off until next year elon musk talked about the supply chain being under pressure and the need to get as many chips as possible as quickly as possible. >> basically, if we can get the chips, we can do it. so, hopefully this chip shortage will alleviate soon. but i feel confident of being able to maintain something like this, at least above 50%, for quite a while. >> that above 50% is the sales growth rate the company has been exhibiting i think it's growing at an annual compound growth rate of over 70% most believe they're going to deliver between 850 and 875,000 vehicles this year and as you look at shares of tesla, keep in mind that the headline news -- yes, it gets a lot of attention

but they're not abandoning california elon musk says they're going to expand production. they have the plant in fremont and a battery plant close to the fremont factory. they have a number of resources in california. just the headquarters, itself, is going to move to austin >> that's good color there i was wondering if there's an estimate of how many employees if this is just a book keeping change in terms of headquarters? >> i have not seen an estimate and we have not heard as far as how many employees might locate. when you go to palo alto, a very nondescript building relative to other companies in the valley that have large, huge campuses, that's not the way it is at tesla's headquarters it's almost as if they said that's the headquarters. let's focus on building up

fremont and they need more elbow room it makes sense on a number of levels, especially for elon musk, who spends a lot of time in texas, to have the wrrk >> i wonder if he addressed some of the price hikes on the eye? >> he said it's because of the supply chain and the fact they would like to have lower prices but they're seeing -- you know, the price pressure that is there, not just with chip said but raw materials. he talked about it yesterday and i bet in a couple of weeks, when they report their q two, results, if he's on the call, i bet that topic comes up. >> phil, thank you well, the top natural gas producers in the u.s. have seen their stock prices sore over the last year. what names do you need to own in

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time to get to our etf spotlight. energy is this year's best performing s&p sector. up more than 45% and by the way, leading all sectors as well for the month of october natural gas is on pace for seven weeks of gains that would be the best streak since 2013 for more, let's bring in our next guest we talked a lotabout natural gas in particular, what's going on in europe and asia. these numbers are, frankly, kind of scary and crazy heading to winter what do you make of it and what does it mean to an investor perspective >> what's going on in the u.s. is nothing compared to europe, where prices have been all-time highs. there's a whole range of

uncertainty because it's essentially going to come down at the weather and the winter. they're at normal levels albeit on the low side or inventories get to plead to zero it just means there would be a lot of inflation and fuel substitution to offset that. so, because of the uncertainty and what feels like a very wide-range of outcomes, i think, generally, the stocks we recommended haven't changed. we still have a biassed economy and a global footprint and eespecially in this market, you need capacity to trade and operate their operation. that sort of really described what their operation looks like, particularly on the gas side and there's a lot of synergies between gas and power. so t feels like a time where investors could become more aware of what's happening here >> and what about on the production side itself i mean, we all talk and know

about pressures from esg and here i'm not just talking natural gas. but companies are returning capital to shareholders, rather than putting it in the ground. is that going to continue? >> that's really a u.s./e and, p phenomenon returns of cash at the expense of growth. because clearly the market was over supplied for a really long time this is part of the adjustment for that what's happening separately, globally, in terms of the current supply crunch is something a little bit different and severe i think that's generally good for the space, in terms of valiation. and on the macro level, it will prevent over supply from materializing again. so, we cover the service companies too right there on the other side of industry spending. it does feel like it's bottoming

here, even with the imperative to return cash the service companies look like they're set up pretty well for directionally positive revenue and earnings >> what about refiners at this point, sometimes stress when you have crude flying the way it is right now, even though it is -- what are we at a 7 year high but vulairo and such have had good comebacks are stocks cheap enough right now? >> outside of everything on the supply side, demand has been coming back gradually. we've had a bumpy road with covid. delta was effected sentiment and even through all that, we've seen a slow, grinding recovery in demand and it's been pretty much in a straight line. that's what refiners are exposed to on the corner, we're headed to earnings season. and so, it does feel like the

floor has been put into the that sector, although, in terms of waiting, on the valuation side, that's where more of a cash flow momentum is. we highlight marathon petroleum, goat a massive buyback again, that quality theme. >> sam, separate from the stocks themselves, this week has been a lot of reflection on the history of that gas, price hikes they've been regional in nature. but this one may be a little bit different. i wonder how do you think about the aggregate households especially in the u.s. >> going back to europe, we've seen a huge end market for natural gas and fertilizer this passes to consumers in a serious way. it effects food supply and you create these inflationary knock-on effects that are dangerous.

that's why i think there will be a supply response. the world can't tolerate gas at record prices. but before shell, gas was $11. maybe this is a return to normal after what was a long over supply >> that's something we're going to keep a close eye on as those fall >> time now for a cnbc news update here's the very latest in northern afghanistan today, at least 100 people were killed or hurt by an explosion in a mosque filled with shiite muslim worshippers. the islamic state has staged similar attacks in the past. maria russia of the philippines focussed on the violence led by that country's president. the nobel committee says it has

a fundamentally critical attitude towards power president biden is expected to restore protections to two national monuments in utah and new england. president trump opened up those areas to development, including mining, ranching, drilling and fishing. and for the first time since 1940 abeluga whale has been spotted in the puget sound they're usually in the arctic. >> we'll have much more on the jobs number next "squawk on the street" ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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what we need is employers to do mandates, individuals to get vaccinated we need 90 plus% of folks

vaxnateded once that happened, economy will be better, people will feel safer going back to work it takes the guess work out of it >> that was last hour, urging more employers to push vaccination. the delta variant and a tight labor market did hold back job creation in september. joining us for more, jan, happy friday once again. great to see you >> thanks for having me on >> we'll talk about some of the seasonal factors in a minute but why the miss >> some of it was teachers or education employment, which was a sizeable negative. we thought we'd get a boost from that i think if you look at the private sector, it's a more moderate disappointment. but it's still below expectations

i would attribute a reasonable chunk of it to virus numbers i do think the virus numbers, while they have been improving, probably still had a negative net impact in september, relative to august you can see that if you look at people that missed work, due to own illness. that number rose further in september. not by a huge amount but it did go to pretty high levels i think it's still really the virus, which has dominated the employment development for so long now >> that said we do have hospitalizations down double digit week on week 32 straight weeks of declines, at least on hospitalizations do you think the fuel is there to get at least a better number for october and maybe positive revisions next month >> i do and i would emphasize we got fairly sizeable upward

revisions to prior months in this report. i absolutely agree the virus situation appears to be improving on a much broader front now. so, the next report should benefit from that. i also think the expiration of unemployment benefits, which happened only a week before the september survey week and doesn't seem to have had much of an impact, i do think that's going to bring more people into the workforce and i think that's going to be more visible in the next couple of reports >> that's been a heated debate on the street. i know your rivals, i guess, we'll say have argued there's zero correlation between states that have ended early. you think they'll be pushed back in the labor force >> i do. and if you look at

individual-level data in the states that ended benefits early and compare unemployed workers there with unemployed workers elsewhere, you find significantly higher job-finding probability in response to the end of the benefits. so, i don't think it's optimal to look just at overall job growth numbers in one group of states verses other groups of states because there are too many different factors. for example, the fact that generally the virus has been more severe. the delta wave has been more severe in less vaccinated states, which generally ended the benefits early you need to dig deeper and if you do, you find compelling evidence that it's a factor. >> speaking of other things going on, what does this do to a november taper announce snmt there was some recollection of

september 2013, where there was once again near-term fiscal uncertainty and did push the fed to avoid a planned taper could that begin again >> i don't think it was weak enough for that. i mean, the payroll numbers were clearly disappointing. but if you have upward revisions, you have a stronger household survey, which probably -- i mean, over stated by the drop in the unemployment rate this wasn't a four-tenth drop kind of report but it wasn't just participation and another strong wage number, which i think is going to be a reason for the fed to move at the november meeting so, i think that's still a high probability. >> jan, if in fact the labor market is acting tighter than we expected three months agewe had 3 mimmian

job openings relative to the number unemployed. you say labor force participation was okay, but do we have to prepare for that being a sticky number? in other words, maybe we're settling at a lower level of participation? >> participation was downen the month and has generally been on the disappointing side i would agree that so far we haven't really seen a meaningful uptick there and that's been a disappointment and continue to be dispointing i mean, early retirements are definitely happening i think we'll see how much we get back going forward my point previously was about employment population as a kind of broad measure of how strong this report was in the household survey that was up two-tenths and so, directionally it does say the household survey was firm, which

ties back to the fed point because they would be looking at that as a cross check on employment and telling them it's a little better than the pay roll numbers would suggest sgrr so, do you think we're going to see a relatively healthy comeback in participation? we have to adjust our idea on whether we're going to rush back to precovid levels by various metrics. people had at one point assumed had happened or if 2022 is a year where they seem a little more stuck >> i think it's going to go up relatively slowly. i mean, if you take the early retirements for example, these are obviously, in many cases, the retirements that happen full forward. so, you're going to have fewer retirements in the future. over time, the impact should diminish

but that's a slow process. and i think how much of the participation gap, how much of that is the labor market slack verses permanent or at least much more long lasting supply side weakness? i think that has yet to be seen. where we clearly have slack in the labor market is the unemployment rate, even at 4.8% is on the high side. i think there's still unused resources there. but on the participation, i think much harder to tell. >> finally, while i have you given the weakness, apparent demand destruction in autos and what it may do to consumption, i haven't seen you bring down your q 4 gdp atlantic sentiment as much as the fed. >> on the q3 tracking numbers,

yeah, we're down to 3 and a quarter percent. that's not quite as low as some of the estimates out there i think all a lot depends on what happens with inventory, which is a poorly measured part of the account we do thinks that we'll probably get less of a liquidation there than i think what other people have built in. it's clear that q3 is going to see significant weakness on the consumption side relative to prior quarters and i think there, generally, the estimates going to merge that much. a lot of it comes down to inventory, which is always hard to speculate >> have a good weekend >> thank you, carl well, bitcoin nearly hitting 56,000 this morning. it's the highest level that crypto has seen since may.

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bitcoin is on pace for its second straight positive week. here to discuss what he's seeing in the space is needham's john good to have you on here >> thanks for having me on >> getting a lot of the attention. not too far from the springtime highs. coin-base shares not doing as much not matching a lot of that action what fails to translate perhaps into coin-base excitement about the platform at this point

>> yeah, i think what ultimately is going to get the stock going a little more is if we can get revenue diversification outside of exchange trading and into some of the other product lines. and we can see that coin base can deliver on other product lines, including some of the other areas. they're building out derivatives. for the most part, it's traded a little bit in line we've started to see a rebound in bitcoin nothing too crazy here i think, you know, part of that also, what a lot of folks on the street might be missing is q3 volumes are going to shake up to be pretty strong coin base facility is trading just outside the bitcoin etheriums of the world and we've seen really strong out performance in those assets in the last three to six months

there's been a lot of trading activity in the avalanche of the world and some of the other layer ones it's as much layered as etherium i think you're going to see pretty strong volume numbers for the platform >> you called them layer ones. seems like where a lot of the inthau enthusiasm is being channelled why is that? and who is that to the benefit of >> why layer ones are getting a lot of attention is we're starting to see scale chain -- these gas feeds are rising quite a bit. anytime you do a transaction on a etherium network, you're paying these fee for your transaction. now you're starting to get other can umpeating platforms that

promise to do more transactions per second at lower cost and you do see that. part of that is because there's a lot more activity happening. so, there's more congestion on that network but you're starting to see some of the other ones compete. ands t there's been a rush with these competitors as market participants want to own the next etherium. and coinbase list as lot of the different ones on their platform they added avalanche and so mostly due to the scaleability concerns, you're starting to see the movement, not only in transaction availability but investments as well. >> this urgency to find the more scaleable, the less expebsive ways to transacted, it's to what end at this point? my point is what are the

projects what are the -- you know, the business of transacting, aside from trading or arb trash or creating synthetic producing products >> it ultimately comes down to a few buckets. but decentralized apps and gaming is a big one. if you want to take out a loan, you're paying these layer one gas fees anytime you interact with that network. and so, because of it, defy can be much more scaleable if you get layer one transaction costs much lower you want those costs much lower to interact with the game. there's a lot of nfts. if you're minting those and paying sizeable costs each time, that's going to become prohibitive. there's those users within efts

and to get those to reach scale, you need these layer one settlements to have higher transactions per second. >> and to knit it back to coinbase, given this is likely going to continue, right people are going to keep looking for alternative coins platforms, modes of doing business in this area, away from the legacy stuff. does that, at the margin disappoint coinbase? >> i think decentralized exchanges have a lot of place and there's a lot of activity within them. that's a where the market is moving there's still a lot of transaction that needs to happen and a good example of that is you can't trade direct on a decentralized exchange you still need to interact with that platform. and if they can start spiting

out some of the other products, more users are going to find it sticky are they going to migrate to some of the end applications maybe but they're going to react more as the hybrid layer, if you will i think the broader legacy institutions do have a threat rising from defy but coinbase is levered to that and in a sweet spot being that layer that touches the banks and touches some of the traditional rails is helpful at this stage as well. i think they're in a pretty attractive spot. >> all right john, thanks a lot for running through all that for us. appreciate it. coming up on a "tech check" this morning, one person says they own tesla you got to believe

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year but reopening and relaxed covid measures may produce a challenge in this flu. >> hey, david. of course, we were warned about this twindemic, covid and flu. if you look at the cdc data, almost no flu last year. you can see the deaths from covid there in the yellow just dwarfing what we normally see from flu even in a bad year. look at 2018 that is flu deaths in that year but the flu really disappeared because of things like masking, social distancing and health officials say particularly things like school closures. but now they're warning that we could be in for a severe flu season when it comes back and it could be this year schools are coming back into session and people are in person again and because we didn't have flu last year, less population immunity beyond that dr. rochelle wolenski warning that we have

seen the return of rsv here's what she said yesterday in a press conference about the upcoming flu season. >> we are worried that having not seen some of these respiratory viruses last year because we were all taking the preventions mitigation strategies, we may see more of them in the year ahead >> so, health officials say now is the time to go out and get your flu shot, if you haven't already. they are estimating a record number of flu vaccines will be shipped to the u.s. this year. up to 200 million doses. this is the market share from last year. manify really close behind there. you guys we heard that the flu vaccine isn't that effective but health officials are pushing back on this notion that 60% effectiveness in previous flu seasons at its best but that is against any form of flu. they emphasize much more

effective in preventing severe disease something we all understand from the covid-19 vaccines guys, if you're going to get a booster, you can get them at the same time. just in different arms >> that will make it more convenient we are definitely a lot smarter than we were a few seasons ago thanks, meg here's latino corporate director association president and ceo esther aguilera. >> during his tenure the brand became the best-known trademark in the world a long tradition of driving business growth in corporate america, yet, are invisible on corporate boards having a seat at the table matters. this hispanic heritage month, let's raise awareness about the representation gap

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so they can deliver a great experience ♪ ♪m anywhere. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ cnbc global council is out and leadership bullish on an economic recovery. fr frank holland has that for us. >> supply chain disruptions are

the biggest concern for their business today as the country and really the entire world continue to adjust to the shock of covid but despite those challenges, the u.s. economy, it actually received the highest marks from our global cfos. the only country or region seen as improving and it's been viewed as an improving area for the past four quarters last quarter just to put this all in context, the eu and uk the only other areas seen as improving and those areas viewed as stable along with the rest of the world. even with global economies stabilizing, always risk 40% of global cfos say covid the biggest external risk followed by a quarter saying cyberattacks and supply chain disrs rounding out the top three. perhaps surprisingly three cfos that see it as a risk this quarter compared to q3 more than a quarter global cfo see an improvement over q3 the consumer discretionary

sector with the biggest upside and another increase from q3 and then followed by healthcare and with this confidence in tech, not surprising at all that the majority of cfos see the ten-year yield staying below 10% and a third believe 1.5% and 1.75% at the end of 2021 over a quarter between 1.25% and under 1.5% the rise and the speed of the ten-year yield, obviously, having a big impact on tech stocks and that tech forecast. back over to you >> yeah, frank well, we got that yield going up today and we'll see if it adjusts the sentiment around there. probably a pretty good silver lining that they're seeing supply chain as a diminishing risk here. >> absolutely. i was surprised byself by this result from the cfos clearly the holiday season and a lot say consumers are paying attention to supply chain and at least at the corporate level, slightly less concerned >> frank, thank you. frank holland back at hq for us. the broader market slight

gain mike, it looks like, you know, you'll be talking about an up week on closing bell >>ic loo looks like an upweek. those yields are interesting 1.6 on the tenure and making it the banks and cyclicals doing well today >> that will do it for us here on "squawk on the street." have a great weekend, everybody. "techcheck" starts now. good friday morning. welcome to "techcheck. today the job's number is definitely in focus. dow on pace for the best week since june tech stocks in the green to wrap up a rough week for that sector, though are they oversold. tesla investors and what we learned from elon musk last night. later on