>> norfolk drummond. rallied 25% earlier this year and consolidated when we talk about consolidation, we talk about coming out it is coming out now. >> joe t >> microsoft will restore its price above $300. >> good to see you everybody thanks for watching. "the exchange" begins right now. thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. happy monday i am kelly evans ahead on "the exchange," 226 trading days that's how long it took the markets to register a 5% pullback why some are welcoming the recent sell-off as a good sign, and which two sectors are buy if inflation is upon us. paper to manufacturing to the tiktok reading revolution. we'll speak to the ceo of barnes and noble about there will be a

book shortage. disney, even bond himself, can't get away from issues plaguing the stocks. dom is here to kick things off. >> what is there not a shortage of, kelly 1 i'm seeing shelves that are not necessarily empty but sparsely stocked all over the place right now. everything from even paper products like pre-pandemic anyway, we are at a market right now that did see some solid-ish upside at one point today. now we've kind of pulled back to flat the dow industrial is down 5 points, about flat on the session. we were over 100 points at one point. s&p 500 right there. nasdaq up 0.2 of 1%. the outperforming, up 23 points. 14,603, the last trade there the strength we're seeing on a relative basis in the market right now is coming from certain parts of the commodity and industrial complex material stocks in particular. if you look at the best performers in the s&p 500, we're talking about freeport-mcmoran

silver and gold. nucor. mosaic, fertilizer, up 4% right now. oil and gas, diamondback energy up i1.5% oil, gas, things you mine for, those are up on the session. if you take a look at some of the losers because of that, input costs rise from hard commodities to soft commodities, let's talk about cotton prices they're elevated on a relative basis. hit a ten-year high on friday. as a result, many companies that use cotton as an input for their products, think denim, levi stras, that kind of company. gap store is the worst performer in the s&p 500 today off 4% right now it's still up 10% year-to-date, but that trend has been lower. cotton prices are part of the reason why, kelly, we're seeing some of these companies like levi strauss, gap, and ralph lauren in the red. >> you nailed it, dom. i remember you talking about that in rapid fire. >> levi strauss, abercrombie &

fitch, american eagle. i'm keeping ing an eye on them because of the rise in cotton prices. >> dom, thank you. it took 226 days for the s&p 500 to see a 5% pullback, one of the longest stretches in history. we guest says this is a buying opportunity but is also here to tell us which two sectors are a buy if we're in for a doubt of stagflation. joining me is allen boomer of momentum advisers. great to have you back let's start with your thoughts overall on this market. >> great thanks for having me happy indigenous peoples' day to you today and all the viewers. so today, you know, the big threat is stagflation. stagflation is the combination of low growth and high inflation. i personally believe thatthis bout of inflation is transitory. it's taken a while for us to transition past it we've got some immense issues in our supply chain and huge labor shortages. i do think in times of strag fl - stagflation, there are sectors

that do well historically. >> tell me why you're bullish on the market overall if you think we could be in for a period of consistently high prices and disappointing growth >> yeah. i think overall, interest rates are going higher, but they're still very low even as rates go higher, they'll still be very, very low. i think, you know, there's a lot of pent up, you know, supply/demand from the lack of supply think about all the restaurants that you go to and, you know, there's a long line. empty tables, right? as the labor shortage works its way out, and i do believe that that will happen, i just think there's a lot of additional revenue and profit growth that's not been seen in the system. that restaurant example, you know, not to single out restaurants, but, again, it's just an example of what will happen when we get through this labor shortage. >> basically, you think we still have pent-up demand, we have the normalization to look forward to, and a cyclical recovery that keeps going. that said, let's talk about why you're even mentioning stagflation plays, which you think are energy and health

care, right? >> yeah. i think energy and health care but historically, they've done well during times of stagflation. what's different this time is that we've got a labor shortage. so while i do like those two sectors, and there's some names in those sectors i like, i like tech tech is kind of like a non-stagflation play tech typically does not do well during stagflation but if you think about it, like the companies that are talking about having a difficult time finding employees, companies that are talking about massive p wage increases, it's not tech companies. it's not software engineers and the like so even though i like health care and energy historically, i do think tech is really -- especially big tech is a place to look right now. >> so i could argue the other side of that, if you consider amazon a tech company. i mean, this is a company that is -- i mean, we're seeing big wage gains in terms of what they would have paid even a couple years ago. maybe they're having some worker shortages, as evidenced by how

big their hiring announcements are. they're expanding rapidly. so why don't you think they would be affected? >> well, amazon, you know, is a big tech until you start looking at them trying to ship goods to your door, right then they become a regular sort of industrial or retailer, right? i look at, like, the two stocks i like most within tech right now are google and microsoft both of these companies have really, really strong revenue growth they have pricing power. microsoft just raised their prices, and the market didn't blink. most of their, you know, employees that are, you know, the ones that they're counting on to deliver their business model, you know, it's engineers, software folk. it's not folks that are holding up, you know -- in short supply right now. >> sure. to rattle off the factors for the stocks you like to own right now, margins, pricing power,

dividend players they're stocks the fed won't hurt low labor costs, percentage of sales. labor might be cheap that brings us to activision blizzard. >> activision blizzard had a labor issue. they had workers walk off the job. they've got a little bit of a scandal. i always look for moments like this as a buying opportunity because you can fix labor and how you manage labor what you can't fix is revenue growth that company has been growing revenue quite well they've got some blockbuster franchises i think right now is a great time to buy the stock while it's down. >> all right allan from big picture to small picture, thank you for joining us with your thoughts on this environment. we appreciate it. >> great thanks for having me. >> allan boomer with momentum advisers. meantime, southwest is on pace for its fifth straight day of losses after cancelling more than 2,000 flights since saturday it's a national story. everybody is talking about it.

phil lebeau is here with the latest. >> cancellations continue for southwest. 365 cancellations today. if you add that along with the 1,800 starting friday and into saturday and sunday, you're looking at more than 2,000 cancellations. we saw scenes like this around the country all weekend. long lines, especially in those cities that have a strong concentration of southwest flights. not only in chicago but also in denver i'm out in las vegas saw a number of people out here who said they were expecting people to fly in for the bears and raiders game they never made it so for southwest, here's what happened the storms on friday in florida was the trigger event. that hit all the airlines, to a certain extent but far more impact on southwest. there was an air traffic control staffing issue very briefly on friday night that is not what caused the cancellations over the weekend what caused them saturday, sunday, into today, crew shortages for southwest airlines some of that is crews not being in the right position. remember, this is a point-to-point system.

all it takes is for a few cancellations, then you start to see a number of them throughout the system this is different than the hub and spoke model you see for the other major airlines shares of southwest airlines, it expects normal flight schedule later this week. this sounds similar to what we saw with spirit airlines earlier this year. that's because it is very similar in terms of it takes a while to get the schedule recalculated and back running as it should. southwest's coo did say in an employee memo they plan to trim their schedule in november and december take a look at the other airlines remember, all the airlines, while they were initially cautious about what to expect for the holidays, kelly, all of them are now saying they see strong demand for the holidays so for southwest, the challenge is not only getting through this situation that they find themselves in, but really they've got to start to build back confidence with the traveling public, that they're not going to have another situation like this if there is a snowstorm in december or something happens right before the holidays because their staffing situation

and the relationship between management and the pilots, as well as the other unions at southwest, that has to be front and center for people to be thinking about that's one of the concerns that you're going to hear analysts talking about, is whether or not southwest may have more muted growth in the holidays compared to other competitors. >> phil, what do you make of the fact a lot of people are hearing through the grapevine that this all comes down to the vaccine mandate and pilots sort of walking off the job? >> right. >> you know, that's both what travelers are hearing through the grapevine. it is also what people on social media of increasingly high political stature is talking about. how much of that is grounded in fact >> the union officially says that there is not a union-sanctioned sick out, if you will nor is there an unofficial sickout. having said that, kelly, when you see these cancellations, all it takes is a few dozen pilots or crew members who are saying, i don't feel like working today. now, we're not saying that

officially has happened. that always is the speculation whenever you see an event like this, especially with the airlines for southwest, the relationship between the pilots and management, i mean, it's not in a good spot, and it has not been in a good spot for a while they're not happy that they were not consulted by management to a greater extent before the southwest management said, "okay, yeah, we're going to fall in like with everyone else and mandate vaccines by december 8th. the white house has been pushing all airlines to do that, which is why we heard from southwest and airlines last week following the lead of united so there's no official sickout that's going on, kelly, but this is what people talk about whenever you see a lot of cancellations like this. >> yeah, absolutely. wreaking havoc, as you said, phil thank you. phil lebeau, as that continues for southwest airlines. coming up, a look at the nation's lost workers. some are pilots. who are they where are they how does the labor crunch threaten to add to the inflation problem? first, nat gas prices are

lowered after breaking a six-week streak and doubling since january. where do they go next? our energy investor is giving his investor on "squawk on the street" earlier. >> longer term, there will be more supply that comes on market infrastructure takes a long time to build i don't think this is going to go away any time soon. i think it has the potential to be disruptive for a number of years. >> announcer: this is "the exchange" on cnbc. largest online commercial real estate exchange. you can close with more certainty. and twice as fast. if i could, i'd ten-x everything. like a coffee run... or fedora shopping. talk to your broker. ten-x does the same thing, - but with buildings. - so no more waiting. sfx: ding! see how easy...? don't just sell it. ten-x it.

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welcome back to "the exchange." natural gas prices are pulling back a little bit, 2.5%, after hitting a 13-year high last week on the global supply shortage. prices have more than doubled since the beginning of the year. we're starting to see sporadic energy outages around the world now. my next guest says we could see even higher nat gas prices and possibly more rationing. joining me now is nina faye, head of north american natural gas. welcome. this is the moment for natural gas and everybody trying to figure out what to make of it. what would you say would alleviate this problem we heard wes edens saying prices could be high the next couple years. do you share that view >> yes, certainly. we've seen that there has been a significant amount of underinvestment in the industry, especially when it's coming to production production is ultimately what is going to be necessary to meet

demand, whether that be over the course of this winter, under a much colder than normal scenario, or for all of the infrastructure-led demand growth that we see coming online from both the industrial sector, whether that be steel, or more lng exports. ultimately, what's going to happen this winter, though, will end up being a winter weather play >> absolutely in terms of how much worse it gets and how much more things spike. but tell me why you think a couple of years. traditio traditionally, it's been a devastating investment supplies comes online. here in the u.s. we're fortunate. we have a lot of it. investors really want them to stay disciplined and so forth. what changes that dynamic? is it the fact that you have huge demand for liquefied shipments around the world from places that are trying to phase out coal again, why don't you think it can be, okay, four, six, nine months' time and more supply comes online, then prices drop back to normal

>> well, first, to be fair, if we do have a very mild winter, even something along the lines of 5% colder than normal weather, i think that we'll be having a much different conversation than the one that we're having right now 5% milder than normal winter is going to pad u.s. inventories by about 400 bcf from the residential and commercial sector alone that's going to change the narrative on how much production growth we have however -- or how much production growth we need, rather however, as we're looking out several years from now, it is, in fact, the investment that we're seeing on the export side of the market that's going to need to ensure that the u.s. market continues to have enough production coming forth. whether that be from the gas directed drill bit in appalachia and hanesville or associated gas plays where, frankly, u.s. dgas is the marginal molecule. >> let me ask the trillion dollar question.

how much of this is the result of policy choices and how much can change with policy we have the summit next month, where nations like the u.s. have to show up and say, here's what we've done to meet the paris agreements here's what we're doing to make sure the energy transition is under way. they have furious populations who think they've, you know, destroyed these dynamics, even while high prices may hasten the transition along again, what policy response is likely here? is it one that might be actually more drilling for nat gas, more pipelines, more reliance on this bridge fuel, or less because people just say, forget it, we're just going to press forward with renewables, or something like that? >> i think ultimately, that decision is going to end up being imparted by or informed about what happens in the course over the winter. if we do see there's substantial scarcity pricing in both the u.s. and europe, then certainly we could see something happen in the favor of gas in terms of from a legal standpoint, for sure >> well, i don't even want to

ask you about rationing, but would we only get to that point, you think, if things got a lot colder >> yes definitely that is on the table for the u.s. market, but in our view, that is going to require something along the lines of a 10% colder than normal winter weather. for context, out of the past ten winters, only one has actually met that threshold of cold, and that's been the 2013 to 2014 winter. >> yeah. i know people -- we were talking about this today, but syracuse area, they're already protesting at the utility because nat gas prices will be up 30% from last year a lot of this is baked in. hopefully we won't get to that point, nina. we really appreciate youdynamic thank you. >> thank you. >> nina is with energy aspects. the fallout continues for facebook now posting its fourth straight week of losses while everyone has been focused on regulation, our guest says litigation is a bigger threat. that's bad news for shares why it could go the way of big tobacco and opioids. we're back after this.

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welcome back to "the exchange," everybody we've given up a 200 point gain. dow is lower than 25 points. nasdaq is down about 2 points. it just went negative. let's check the sectors where materials and energy are relative outperformers energy is not even in the green, but materials is by about 0.6 of 1% utilities are lagging down 1%. keepin ing an eye on bond yield. remember, the market isn't open today. aluminum hitting the highest level since the cme's contract inception in 2014, the highest level in at least seven years for aluminum there it is up quite substantially this year, 2.5% up today

copper and palladium as well draft kings higher after there was a buy-in of a $66 price target just about under $50 a share today with a 3% gain they're saying they've quickly captured a leading position in the sports betting market. take a look at dutch bros. i can't believe it's not dutch brothers anyway, it is up 13% today on a raft of initiations. six out of buy, one in neutral jeffrey is the most bullish on the street all of this post ipo the lockup expired the most bullish target haves a $60 price target piper likes the singular focus on coffee. the stock is up 30% from the ipo last month, around $48 a share jim cramer called dutch bros the star of the day. read about his trades in the cnbc investing club for his newsletter point your phone at that qr screen with your camera on now to our cnbc news update.

>> hi, kelly police in london say they'll no longer pursue allegations that prince andrew sexually assaulted an underage girl metropolitan police also saying they'll take no actions on allegations that maxwell helped traffic women for convicted sex offender jeffrey epstein. a group of donors pledged $220 million to reduce global methane emissions. the largest ever private commitment to the effort 20 donors are involved, including bloomberg philanthropies, former new york city mayor bloomberg serves as a u.n. special envoy on climate. the chicago white sox will have to see if they can even up their playoff series against the astros in the american league division series. game four has been postponed due to rain. the teams will face off in chicago tomorrow afternoon. tonight on the news, a nuclear engineer and his wife facing espionage charges for allegedly selling secrets about nuclear power warships what they face at a court hearing tomorrow that's tonight kelly, back to you. >> wild story. thank you very much.

now, how low can growth go disney has some earnings worries, and a disappointing debut. that's all coming up in today's headwinds edition of "rapid fire," right after this. isn't it a paradox? that the love for this world that gets us out in it sometimes leaves behind the things that can harm it? but now, flight by flight, we can make a difference. because delta has committed to becoming the world's first carbon-neutral airline on a global basis. we believe you shouldn't have to choose between seeing the world, and saving it. ♪♪ i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. so it's like my streaming service. well except now you're binge learning.

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welcome back, everybody. let's take a look at a couple stories that should be on your radar right now. a lot of headwinds today it's that sort of unofficial version of "rapid fire." here to break down the headlines, we welcome in chris, chief equity strategist. along with julia and michael santoli to round things out. welcome, everybody let's start with goldman sachs downgrading its gdp forecast, with concerns on consumer spending and the virus drag. they put the fourth quarter growth to 4.5% to 5% implying a downgrade to 5.6% on the year and inflation is said to slow global growth. on the one hand, this is getting priced in now. >> you can make that argument. in particular, one element of goldman's call, which is monitoring this assumed shift next year for consumers from goods into services, which, you know, obviously may not be seamless, but you have to expect

it'll happen and will that take some of the pressure off supply chains you have this huge pull forward of goods demand. goldman for next year is still above consensus in terms of overall real gdp growth for the u.s. the third quarter, we know, was weak now it's a matter of, are we reaccelerating into the fourth quarter? so i do think that this is going to be the conversation fiscal drag, for one thing, whether we pass anything in congress or not, is going to be a shadow for next year. >> chris, jp morgan said global retail sales have started to low. we've seen the u.s. hiring picture slow they think high inflation is slowing the economy. i think that makes for kind of a tricky investing landscape to navigate because it's not as simple as put on the inflation trades, and it is not as simple as put on the slowdown trades. i don't know if you'd use this word stagflation or we have to see how this shakes out the next couple months. >> kelly, i think it's too early to use stagflation as a word third quarter will mark the low

in the short term of growth. we'll see growth into the fourth quarter and growth into 2022 don't forget, with these gdps, they're pretty high. so if you get 5% gdp next year and another 4% for inflation, that's 9% nominal growth that'll show up in earnings. that'll make for a strong market, i believe. >> quick final word, julia >> yeah. that was really goldman leaving the forecast for the unemployment rate unchanged, projecting that unemployment will fall to 3.5% at the end of 2022 really so much now just hinges on how the pandemic drags out and how people respond to it. >> normally, we see 3.5% unemployment seems fabulous. now it is a problem because we don't know fully what's going on with the labor supply. we'll dig into that in a moment. let's talk about what's going on with apple ensnared in the global supply chain woes as vietnam has supply chain issues even the latest iphone 13 with

barclays saying the company could be headed for a weaker than expected q3 are you a buyer of apple, chris? >> not really, kelly i like almost all the other fang stocks apple is a great company, but it'll have meager growth earnings add in the supply chain, there are easier ways to make money the next year. >> haven't we learned the importance of vietnam? first nike getting the downgrade and now apple. >> vietnam also has barclays talking about taiwan, as well. tremendous respect for anybody who tries to disentangle the supply chain, something as complicated as apple, boiling it down to unit growth for this quarter, next quarter. it's never been clear to me that that has helped you get good exits or entries into the stock. >> true. >> i feel as if it is so tough to try and, you know, discern what's going on there in terms of what is embedded in the stock

versus what we think is going to come through units apple has succeeded in becoming a little less hit driven, becoming a little less about iphone unit growth, and smoothing out the upgrade process. becoming more of a holistic, hey, 3.5% free cash flow yield that's why you buy it. don't worry about how many phones next quarter. we'll see. to me, it's been tough to dance around these unit growth numbers. >> we know, julia, they had a big year last year you know, you look at the charts we see the shares stalling more in the last few months. >> look, apple, there are always these questions about whether the iphones are revolutionary. it'll come into play now you have this additional issue of the supply constraints. but i do think mike greats a great point. this is a company that's invested in building its other revenue streams. the services, business is huge we just heard about apple appealing that one part of the epic ruling that it lost, which could even delay further any

impact there of having to give up more of those fees it earns from the app store. >> good point. even though they are smoothing things out and, you know, chris wants to own everything else in the big tech universe, it is a reminder that iphone 13 demand has been at least strong enough that they're struggling to keep up with it let's talk disney. disney plus subscriber growth numbers have been steady in the u.s., analysts say overseas, it could lead to disappointing earnings next month. this coupled with the slower than expected recovery in parks, cruc cruises, and theater releases led the firm to reduce revenue guidance for the quarter and the year they're bullish on 2022. you know, some of the excitement has come out of the disney story lately. >> >i think the reason they're still bullish on 2022 is bob scared buyers when he said there was going to be lumpiness. over the long run, they'll hit their longer-term targets. near term, there's going to be

lumpiness. that hinges on a lot of different things how they're rolling out content, et cetera. i think the question is, does what happens in the next quarter, in terms of subscribers, is there a pull forward, is it slowing how does the theatrical business play into this "black widow" was a simultaneous release, and the next marvel movie was in theaters for a limited period of time different factors at play. people seem eager to go back to the parks and cruises. one thing i'm going to be listening for when disney reports earnings is what they're seeing right now in terms of bookings for christmas and also spring break next year. >> true. mike, what are you watching? >> i mean, i think that disney has yet to really fully digest this huge step higher in v valuation. not only with covid and the launch of disney plus and streaming, but even with the fox assets it bought it went to a huge multiple of cash flow, way higher than it ever had before.

part is because of the debt. i think this has just been part of that process, of trying to metabolize that huge bite, and to maybe step down to more realistic growth expectations for disney plus. it got credit all up front for having a netflix inside of it, and it isn't quite there financially yet. plus, there is a multi-billion dollar operating income hole relative to 2019 levels in the parks. i mean, we assume that's going to come back soon, later, to a full extent, slightly lesser extent that's the argument as well and one of the reasons the stock looks so expensive right now. >> chris, one of my favorite party games is to ask people if they know disney's forward pe. i guess i don't go to parties, as this would be happening more on twitter anyway, 50 is pretty high. i think we're still near those levels would you be a buyer here? >> i actually would, kelly you touch on something, that the pe scares people away but it is artificial what people don't realize, let's say the parks are about 75% ful

if you go around the world, averages they're making 75% of the park profits. that's not true at all they're making hardly any park profits because of the overhead cost the next 25% to fill the parks will shoot up earnings, make the pe much more attractive. i think disney is a buy. >> all right very well stated let's move on to the final and related topic today, what is going on in the theaters "no time to die," the huge installment, latest, last, depending what you say, in the bond franchise brought $56 million in the domestic debut. year and a half later than its originally planned release it is the fourth best debut for a bond film and a solid shower for the pandemic era shy of the $60 million people were expecting mixed reactions from the theater names, underscoring the challenges of getting people back to the bond office. i imax fell flat amc up 50 cents. julia, what'd you think of the box office number? >> i think people were expecting

between, say, $55 million and $65 million. this would have been in that range. then thursday night, the numbers were really huge for those thursday night showings. i think that got people really excited. they thought the numbers were going to be huge the reality is, the movie was long it was about 2 1/2 hours long, which means there are fewer opportunities to play it on a friday or a saturday night compared to "venom," closer to an hour and a half long. that set the pandemic record for an opening weekend and bond has to appeal to older audiences, and those audiences are less likely to rush out and see something opening weekend. which means there is hope that this film will hold up particularly well in coming weeks and won't have the typical drop-off more superheros would zblee >> chris, i see a knowing smile. >> julia said it appeals to older audiences, and i saw it last weekend what i would say, i think 6 to 12 months from now, you'll be seeing headlines, "the movies are back." i think like mark twain said, the demise of the movies is

greatly exaggerated. >> so you're a buyer of amc? >> i'm lnot sure about the the theaters those economics are difficult. i do think people will go back to the movies. i think they're itching to do that. >> mike, a final word. how much -- you know, we love the amc story for so many reasons. how much of it is predicated on the success of the box office in the next three to six months time >> almost none of it cinemark is your read on what the market thinks about the actual pacing of box office likelihood this is most closely tethered to, i think, the actual revenue picture. amc, of course it matters to the core business. the stock has become disengaged from really the magnitude of what amc's business is right now. i would put that aside and say, you know, i don't think we're arguing about are movies coming back are people going to want to go back to movies or not? it's not that binary. how event movies are going to be bankable to the degree they were before >> true. >> that's, to me, what the

industry is figuring out. >> cinemark is down 4.5% today my husband said he might go see it, which would be maybe the biggest breakthrough for the bond box office in a decade. thank you very, very much. we'll leave it there mike, julia, and chris for "rapid fire. coming up, companies have been vocal about the persistent labor shortage what about the workers the factors keeping millions of americans out of the job market are next thanks for coming. now when it comes to a financial plan this broker is your man. let's open your binders to page 188... uh carl, are there different planning options in here? options? plans we can build on our own, or with help from a financial consultant? like schwab does. uhhh... could we adjust our plan... ...yeah, like if we buy a new house? mmmm... and our son just started working. oh! do you offer a complimentary retirement plan for him? as in free? just like schwab. schwab! look forward to planning with schwab.

welcome back we've been reporting on this labor shortage throughout the pandemic as companies struggle to fill vacancies. we look at the lost workers, those who are no longer in the jobs market, who they are, where they are, and why. steve? >> kelly, thanks evidence for the lost workers is everywhere in the help wanted signs in the windows of stores closed at odd hours for lack of workers.

in the inflation numbers where employees bid up wages and pass on the cost. jobs numbers from friday some of the lack of hiring is three classes of people standing out. women, new retirees, and immigrants of the 3.1 million fewer workers in the workforce, 63% or about 2 million are women. this is the reverse for the last recession. women aged 20 to 34 represent half of the lost workers child care could be a major reason for their absence the number of americans 65 and over leaving the workforce each month has ratcheted up to a new level with the pandemic, and it's never returned. 145,000 americans in this age group drop out of the labor force every month. that's after 93,000. extra 1 million plus retirees the past 20 months finally, decline in immigration. beginning of the trump administration before the pandemic, increased during the pandemic, and it's eased only somewhat with the biden

administration senior fellow at the kcato institute tells me cumulatively, there's hundreds and thousands of fewer workers that the company expected to be present but they are not there are 500,000 lost legal immigrant workers. the unknown question s can these lost workers ers be found get them back to the workforce to fill the 11 million open jobs >> sometimes i wonder if the pandemic fast forwarded everything, steve. we talk about it as if it created this kind of mass dropout. but were these dropouts that were going to happen anyway? you know, the early retirements. okay, those people were going to leave at some point anyway the female aspect to this, would they have dropped out of the labor force anyway some of the immigration issues, were we heading down that road anyway i wonder, is the fact it was sped up and happened at one time, but it was still something we were going to need to structurally address >> kelly, you are a student of

economic cycles. you know, and it is inherent in your question, every time you have a downturn, it accelerates the cycle. you had a grower number of 65 and older americans leaving the workforce. accelerated. immigration was going down for political reasons. i think president trump had been reacting to the reality of the politics that accelerated with the pandemic as for women, i think it could go either way. there were some indications women were steady. men were leaving the workforce i think what we're looking at here is two factors. one is the child care issue. the second one i think has to do with the idea these were low-paying service jobs. in this market today, some women have a choice of where to go back and at what bewage. >> people are struggling on that issue. i totally agree. maybe the million dollar question smaller segment but meaningful about a million women are out of the workforce.

steve, we appreciate it. looking at every aspect of the unemployment picture steve leesman reporting. book sales surging for the first time in decades thanks to an unlikely source we're going to talk to the coo of barnes & noble. if you alrdy gtieaifng books, i do it every year, buy now. we'll be back in a moment.

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welcome back supply chain disruptions and a shortage of paper is claiming a new victim, books. the largest retail book seller says if you're planning to give reads for this holiday, order now. supplies are short, and demand is at multi-year highs thanks in part to tiktok for more, let's welcome in the ceo of barnes & noble. i'm a fan of book shops and books. we should have disclosures i could talk to you for 20 minutes. welcome. tell me, what is going on with book tok and tiktok making books popular again? >> it's teenagers, large ly youg adults, engaging and getting excited around books tiktok is proving to be this amazing platform they're buying and reading clearly and sharing and

discussing a wonderful array of books. what's exciting to me is not just obviously that we sell books, which we like, we're selling really good books. it's things like madeline miller wonderful stuff. >> nice. so one thing i wonder about is the availability of e-books, which would seem to be a natural solution at a time when paper is a problem and, you know, supply chain is a huge issue. what portion of sales are e-books today, and do you think that that is something that will grow or does it not replace the experience of a physical book? >> it doesn't replace the experience of a physical book. it's a very nice way to read for some people. all sorts of either it's convenient if you don't want the weight of the book, eyesight needs the bigger font. really, truly, people engage with physical books. that's what we can see through tiktok this is not -- this is about covers and enjoyment and about being in bookstores. you can see, i'm at a busy bookstore here with people

milling around me. it's very exciting. >> so i assume prices are up books already weren't cheap. if i had a major quibble, it'd be that new books are so expensive. where are we today on pricing, and where are we on shortages? when you see there is a book shortage, would that tend to t affect very high-selling books or i would imagine ones the margin get pushed out that might be something you think is really perfect and special for someone but more of a cult kind of book that might not be available in how is it playing out. >> to be honest, books are planned and printed well in advance. we have stores full of all the best sellers and things you expect but f2 there is a surprise best seller normally they get them reprinted and come in quickly. now it's slower. so it's the thing we don't know about that's missing not the thing we do know about you're right about sort of pricing. i think that there's been a period of some inflation

but, you know, at the end of the day for at soft cover, i think for the enjoyment and hours invested in it, it remains really compelling as a value books last forever it's not just that you reads them it will be children, friends, neighbors. these are things that will last forever. so i think for us as retailers we need to -- particularly the larger retailers need to give good value. >> final question, as a manager i can't imagine what it must be like you have supply shortages, issues with freight and the mail and then you have the labor. could you just rank as it relates to you right now going into the holidays what is the big or the top three biggest concerns just help us understand which of these is really bad. >> well, to be honest with us labor is not a big problem because we have a very vocational workforce the book sellers love jobs and we don't have a problem in our

stores we're full of good book sellers. we have stores full of books my only worry is towards the end of holiday we may find ourselves short of some. but really the extraordinary thing is you set out with your piece to say is so much more read something happening so many more books being bought, book sellers are amongst those retailers who are finding life really very much better than we could have ever dared dream. so we're feeling very positive about the holiday season. >> i'm glad to layer it. like you said, i think we're doing in okay in the world if we have a shortage of books james, thanks for joining us still ahead the facebook wlivt blower testimony on capitol hill has some calling it a big tobacco moment but it may not be the biggest risk to the social media gntias. we'll explain what is after this

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welcome back shares of facebook are down 13% over the past month as the fallout from the facebook whistle-blower continues preponderated france he is haugen's senate testimony. democrat richard blumenthal said facebook knows it's harmed teenagers and compared it to another controversy in the 90s >> this research is the very definition of a bombshell. facebook and big tech are facing a big tobacco moment a moment of reckoning. >> and just breaking in the last few minutes, the facebook oversight board says they will meet with the whistle-blower backup what's the biggest risk to facebook now regulation or litigation from maybe users chamg damages. blare levin of new street research says it's litigation and could lead to the public having a negative perception of the company if they don't already. blare, i think this is an

important piece. we talk in the marketplace whether regulation would hurt facebook or help it because it tends to favor the incumbent or if you break it up that could reward shareholders. tell me what the litigation path could look like. >> well the litigation path can come from different attorneys. there can be large classes of individuals. it could come from the f.t.c. arguing it violates basic consumer protections from state attorney generals who have different laws appear eand rules. but the key thing in my analysis is that the path of litigation, there are a couple of things i think are important for investors to understand. number one, it's backwards looking. and so su really are focused on the harm as opposed to to kind of the difficult tradeoffs and policy that dplgs involves that will be kind of a daily reminder of the problems ant second thing is when you are

doing litigation, facebook is by itself a lot of public policy is a team sport. if you lobby on litigation, facebook and google and maybe and a bunch of others are on the same team. but when it's litigation you're by yourself. >> that's a really interesting point. they'd be by themselves. it would be all about the harm from the precedents of big tobacco but also opioids as you mentioned, these were devastating to the companies now in both cases no one was shedding tears to have denies of cigarettes or opioids. but in facebook case i was using the buy nothing page to get rid of baby gear what do you think society wants in terms of down the litigation path how bad it could get for facebook. >> i think the framework is similar. a large company knows that it's causing some harm and instead of acting quickly to mitigate that

harm doesn't do so, arguably -- appear these are the allegations. i don't really know the truth but argue by acts to accelerate the harm but the facts and damages are quite different. but i think it could be very difficult for facebook i think what the public wants is number one protect kids. i think that was to me from a political perspective the big thing that happened as compared to, like, cambridge annualica where you were hurting democracy but it's not clear that everybody cares about democracy. it is clear that everybody cares about kids i think that's the single most important thing. then the sec thing is i think there are changes in behavior. for some it's about transparency for some about privacy for some it's about opening up to more competition. but i think -- look, the tobacco litigation is known for producing ten he is of billions of dollars for the states. i don't know that we're talking about those damages.

but the tobacco litigation also resulted in behavioralchanges. >> right. >> i think a bunch of state attorney generals might achieve that much faster than the united states congress. >> we started obviously to see piecemeal efforts. but you provided a comprehensive picture of what it kwo look like. >> thank you. >> ignition interlock. >> that does it for "the exchange" everybody. thanks for your time power lunch begins right now and welcome, everybody to power lunch and here is what's ahead on a busy monday the energy threat. at what point will energy prices trigger potentially a global recession? it's a question investors are asking these days. and our panel of experts will answer it. and the search for pricing power. a top analyst says inflation will be the most important market driver from here on out and he's got a list of stocks you may want to consider