>> we finished on the near the session lows today, down 250 on the dow, or 0.7% we're out of time here that does it for "closing bell." thanks for watching. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite, this is melissa lee. the three words that sent the bitcoin brigade wild today what jpmorgan said about the cryptocurrency that gets a ton of heat. southwest shares until pressure, the airlines canceled thousands of flight? a nightmare weekend for travelers. we'll break down the fallout later. and ante up, should you roll the dice on these names? running out of gas, so to speak, xle hitting the highest

level since 2020 the move comes even as oil prices closed as nearly seven-year hide. commodity up, stocks down, what gives? guy? >> for now, mel, two more sleeps before the opening nights for the rangers, if anyone cares, and kudos to tim who's been on this for a long time i think you continue to be there. maybe the equities underperformed a bit today obviously the broader market didn't help. some of the levels that we stopped at makes sense that traded up to $7, $8 that was a three-year high, goldman sachs basically said it's run its course, so some of these names may have gotten ahead of themselves. oih, 33% of which it halliburton and schlumberger, which i think

report on the 19th and 22nd. i think this energy trade is far from over. >> karen, what do you major of this divergence? >> it's interesting to me. i don't have a ton of energy exposure i do have the oih. when i was looking at the oih, i think the prior high was 240 or something. oil itself was a lot lower i can't fully explain it i don't know if we have the chart of the forward curve, and if we see it over the last month and six months ago, we could see that really we're in a backwardation. tim always points out that the curve can be wrong, but it's interesting to me. that tells me at the commodity is more likely to come in, a much bigger run that is the equities instead of hanging on to my oih, a big portion, and then a bunch

of various others, but what we didn't see today, the bond market was closed. i would be interested to see if rates tomorrow are moving up or down with this move in energy. >> yeah, it's frustrating to type in ten-year treasury and not get a price on it. tim, is the chart wrong, in your view >> well, commodity curves across the commodity complex are starting to strengthen i think they are starting to have more conviction karen brings up a good point on bod markets. this oil price move puts the fed in a different position. although we have inflation everywhere, we don't need this here, and i think that's a place where it needs to be considered. karen has talked about oih, and we're having the conversation, is it a linear relationship

between drillers and the price of oil certainly where they are relative to the price of oil, either historically or even proceed-covid, it should probable be 25% higher the issue i think is the delay effect that comes with rig counts, with actual drilling, and where you begin to see a delay between higher oil prices and oil companies begin to drill and drill. north american rig counsel are up double. we're about 700 if you look at the rig counts you think about the places where, against some of the higher technology plays come into play, and that tells you where i think prices will continue to go so, i think oil is also a canary for the entire commodity complex. we talked last week how coal prices might have been that canary for oil prices. i think, while that's true, i

think commodity prices are moving higher. there's a lot of prices to take this conversation, but chemical prices, shutdowns because of the labor, because of the supply shortages, you name it. >> another place to take the conversation is green energy that was up, too, today. boyawyn, i know you said -- what -- we've had this conversation about green, about the changes to renewable energy causen inflation, and overall we are seeing both headed higher. >> so the -- if i'm looking at the actual commodity and i want it highly correlated to that, i probably would look at the emps, and the xop has more mimicked the -- and taking it more of a

corollary, i would say you would everything from natural got to say pomp, you're going to look for an alternative i think you're seeing that play out today, everything from charge point to sun run, to tan and some of the order correlates >> tim, you first brought up green-flation on the show, but if you look at the actual trade. it's not just fossil files and not just green it's ancillary trade, the copper that's needed for the alternative energy if this is the trend that's causing all of this to move higher, what is the best place to be in this trade? >> right, and green-flation is not caused just by, you know -- well, i don't think we're having it as the only source of the

move higher. we've talked about some of the dynamics, labor and some of the issues, the geopolitics, the fact that opec and opec-plus is a very enviable ability. the fact that russia can continue to squeeze europe as much as he wants, while acting as a friend, when it serving him to get pipelines in the control. i do think broader material prices are moving higher i think if you listen to the home builders, there are places where they're having to substitute materials you're still see being replaced by concrete and by cement. look at some of the cement producers. even timber, we've talked about, you know, even before anyone could find lumber prices, we were talking about it on a show, but a company like international paper, tick irip, the chart is

just starting to break out again. so investors in these trades as opposed to traders in these trades, no -- we like freeport, we like steel, i like gas, i think some will continue to trade higher. >> ex-gold, ex-silver, are we in a situation where you throw a doubt pretty much at most commodity and it's probably a good trade for the next six months >> it certainly feels like that. cotton is a commodity, coffee. the short answer, i think, is yes. the first place people look to, to your point, is gold they see it going nowhere, and they discount the rest of the commodities that are out there, some 23 commodities, but i do think we're in the spirit -- just add this to this conversation we talk about the market testing new fed chairs, and i agree with that

i think the energy market is testing this administration now. i think they're good to make a huge policy mistake, in my opinion, if they go down this release route, to my they're blinking don't discount the fact that i think the market is trying to test this administration as well >> i think there is a test i also think there's a test, though, in the fed with higher oil prices this is a test of the fed's resolve, right, to hold the line about inflation being transitory at some point they're going to see this inflation trickle through to corporate earnings, to people's pocketbooks. when you go to a gas station, what do you do with year spare change you buy a slim jim or something -- well, i don't, but you might not do that anymore, but if youexpand that and go -

think about the department store, the supermarket, there is a triple effect. >> there is a triple effect. it's almost impossible to not be the fed got a bit of cover that job data certainly wasn't hot. i city think they said to go in november i don't think they'll ever find the perfect time to begin a long process. i mean, i don't know if this oil is the thing that puts them over i think they're going anyway >> well, the chart master says oil prices, they're headed even higher carter, take it away. >> this is a phenomenon known as momentum it can happen in lumber on the way up or way down

>> so the first chart -- what is remarkable, of course, is the rules of symmetry. wheel they're not perfect, they're obvious remarkably precise. yes, it's 77 a barrel, and then it proceeds to drop, and then it has a mirror image rise, 33 sessions down, back up, and now look at the second chart we're just, of course, breaking out, just now moving above that high so where could it go? >> this is the channel that's been in effect since the low sort of the proper low, if you will, and there's that breakout. what's remarkable about the low

of that is it's a $15 a barrel, if you were to have a measured move, it would take you to about 92, 93 frankly i think that would be remarkable but it has to be considered. >> what about the oil stocks look at this comparative chart this is wti. since the peak in the oih -- that's meant to model the old osx index, which is still in business, of course, and what do we know? those are terrible numbers since the peak in osx, or the 2014 peak of oih, down 26%, oih is down 81 that's the problem with trading. you can catch a move, and then

at the end of the day, it's speculating, because it sure hasn't been good >> wti is up 41%, but oih is still negative, down 5% over the past year, so, yes, it's come up a lot off the low. but over a reasonable period of time, it's really not delivering you can see it there to the penny, again can oih gets -- it's -- overall, though, i think it's fleeting. that's where i would consider

it. guy, i don't know. guy or carter, he makes a pretty compelling case. >> i always defer to carter, without question the only solution for higher commodity prices -- i don't think we're at that point yet. we'll see what happens i think the -- names like apa that we talked about i think those stocks will continue to move higher. again. this oral service names into earnings, 19th i believe for halli halliburton, 22nd no shall for

schlumberger a nightmare weekend for air travelers. plus bashing of bitcoin. what jpmorgan's jamie dimon said today that's getting a lot of attention. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two.

woelcome back to "fast money. phil lebeau has the details from the weekend. >> reporter: las vegas, where we are right now, is one of the airports that lost in flights, but we checked in with the leaders here, saying things are improving. more than 2,000 flights canceled since saturday the airlines believes they'll get on a firm footing later this week it all started with a weather event in florida, an air rask troll staffing issue, but on saturday and sunday, it was all southwest. they had crews that were out of place, which raises the question, will they be able to handle -- handle a surge in holiday traffic, which is

expected, as we see covid case dim minuters the c.o.o. of the company saying they will make adjustments he said, quote -- we've already made significant reductions from our previous schedules, and we think -- if we think we need toad more, we will by the way, we checked in with with the receive airlines pilots union. we had, look, a lot of people are saying, maybe it's not official, but unofficially, are year pilots saying we're not happy with the way things are going, with a lack of discussion, so we're going to call in sick the union said, look at the sick rates for pilots it is no different over the weekend than it was earlier this summer they say there is neither an official or unofficial sickout going on in terms of pilots saying i'm not going to fly, because i'm not happy with southwest management nonetheless a lot of questions

for southwest's ceo gary kelly he'll join us tomorrow morning on "squawk on the street." you don't want to miss what he has to say they'll have to address it if they're short on staffing right now, if they couldn't anticipate it ahead of this weekend, are they going to be prepared someone thanksgiving or the christmas holiday? these are important questions the airline will have to tackle. >> not only that, with consumers's heads, this could be the first time they've been able to see family for quite some time if they're going to trust southwest to get them where they want to do when they want to get there, or are they going to say, i'll go to some other airline. >> i think the answer is this, melissa. if you were in a market, saying chicago, you have a number of other options than southwest, you may think twice, but in a lot of parts of the country, in

many markets, southwest is the predom instant airline at the end of the say, you sit there and say, who is giving me the most choices the best offer out there if it's southwest, i may not be crazy about what's happening with the staffing, but i will roll the died anymore, because other choices are far more limited. >> phil, thanks. i looked forward to the interview tomorrow morning bonawyn, where would you go with the airline trade at this point? this sounds like a southwest problem, specifically. i'm his than to put words in anyone's mouth

i do like southwest, but he need to hear more from management in terms of the root cause. this doesn't just i will be staying away until i get full information. if i get what sounds like a credible answer, then i think you buy southwest on weakness, but i think jetblue is a nice alternative. >> i think bonawyn makes a good point. they were gearing up for this moment it's going to be the holidays, people have gotten the vaccines, and this happens even before the rush >> i'm like bonawyn, something seems off. phil did say some of the routes they are the big player, but how would this problem not be more broad than just southwest if it's a staffing issue?

>> that makes me concern for all the airlines, but i don't have any airline exposure maybe i would be looking at hotels, but those aren't cheap, either so i'm sort of staying away from the space. i can't even imagine the managerial nightmare i'll be interested in the interview tomorrow >> tim, your take? >> it will be a great interview. i'm a buyer of southwest they have the most loyalty, the most profitability, the best balance sheet, and i think they're well positioned karen's point is a great point, but this is not a southwest problem this happens to be a southwest moment it was a terrible weekend, but if you look at

southwest, people think airlines -- if you look at the chart outside of today's move, it look like you're challenging the 100-day. the longer-term moves averaging have turned positive i think the bigger issue for airlines, it may in fact be energy but i like southwest airlines here. >> we're just getting started here on "fast money. here's what's coming up next -- >> announcer: from crypto trash mark, but that's not stopping the crypto from surging. plus a big call in the fin tech space morgan stanley getting bullish on sofi. he atndweavth a a lot more when "fast money" returns are the things america makes out here. the history she writes in her clear blue skies. the legends she births on home town fields. and the future she promises.

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bitcoin tops 57,000 since may, just 11% from the all-time high not everyone is convinced. listen to what jamie dimon said about bitcoin earlier today. >> i personally think it's useless, but i don't care. it makes no difference to me i don't think you should smoke cigarettes, either, you know but now it comes into the shaming of jpmorgan. our clients are adults they disagree. that's what make markets if they want access to buy or sell bitcoin, we can't custody it, but we can give them legitimate advice.

>> they besigana offering access to bit counsel earlier, karen, i will go to you first now, he said, you know, don't smoke cigarettes, either it's an interesting example to pull out of the affair when talking about bitcoin. cigarettes >> yeah, you know, he's had this pin for a while. i think it was maybe two years ago, where he said bitcoin is a fraud, and that was around 5,000, and then walked that back jamie and i can't agree on everything, just most things i don't -- i don't know. i'm not so pessimistic as he is. i'm not sure what this most recent run-up was about. perhaps it's rising rates, and maybe the idea, you know, that the u.s. balance sheet will get out of control, and if that's the case, the whole currency

weakening, which is one of the central points of bitcoin, i think that might be part of it but one other interesting thing is happening a lot of the other cryptocurrencies are doing well, ether is doing well, portland there's others that have really not done well at all in the last few weeks. >> those are the ones tip dale tied to de-fi, or decentralized -- do you think there's a link here? >> i go back to jpmorgan, and they're not in the big of being first in almost anything right now. i think jamie dimon is one of the most talented executives

i don't have the same crush that karen does i just think that -- [ laughter ] >> well, put it this way, you know, i thought that was a very adept sidestep for what's going on he called it a fraud in 2017, and then it went to 18 to 20,000 one four, five months. i don't think he needs to make a call on this i think jep morgan and asset management recognizing this is what their clients want, and on some level this is just the beginning. by the way, he's been great for bitcoin. i'll leave it at that. i think efficacy and real, i would say used cases for some of the de-fi tokens out there and platforms is still -- i would say somewhat away, and i think the more important dynamic is the institutional adoption and regulation of bitcoin, but of

digital to bens. let's say stuff jpmorgan in your bit counsel, and it's a long-term investment but hearing those comments from jamie dimon, let's say you're a young person, you're a believer in bitcoin, a believer in cryptocurrencies, does it make you think even a little bit that jpmorgan is not being headed by someone who will steward the company towards the future of decentralized finance and that other world where things aren't necessarily run through institutions >> that's an interesting question no is the answer i mean, i think he's been -- listen, i don't know when it was, but maybe the beginning of of this year, he was forthright about the threats to the conventional banking system. and jpmorgan, quite frankly, to a large extent, is probably ahead of the curve now, his opinions

notwithstanding, i think he made that point, he doesn't believe in it, but that doesn't mean our clients don't. i don't know if you're coming to america fan, mel, but there was a scene when eddie murphy went to a st. john's game at the madison garden and said, in the face, and bit counsel did an in the face today to jamie dimon. two years ago on the same comments, it trades down 10% like this. today it went higher it's an interesting price movement. >> got a good chuckle from bonawyn, but nobody else, guy. shares jumping 13% as analysts get bullish on the stock. and buzzkill coming your way, at&t dropping to its lower levesie 20l nc10 what has investors hanging up on this trade when "fast money" returns. serena williams ready to serve. ahh!

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welcome back the fin tech firm is overweight according to -- and a leg up on competition for the gen-x and y

markets. bonawyn, do you like sofi? >> yes, i do this merges well with the last conversation with de-fi and new fin tech alternatives. soed lending business is rather robust i can see a pathway to that. you couple that in with student loans and that forbearance essentially ending in a couple months, in january of 2022, if i remember correct lip, there's an up side here i think the stock has traded on the back of that i think there's more room to run, and i think this is exactly what these -- what we, as the younger generation are looking for in terms of financial alternatives >> if sipped, what is the one stock you would buy as a symbol of the future of finance, karen, what would you say >> wow, that is a really hard question i'm not sure it would be sofi.

one point that is analyst makes that i think is a catalyst is the end of the -- the student loan -- student loans will grow a lot in the coming year versus the pause they've been in. that's a good catalyst i don't understand, though, this whole fin tech valuation, where they all want to sort of become a break, but they don't trade it remotely close. >> guy, what would you say about the valuation different? would you pay it >> well, you know, i think sofi can grow into that valuation i think you're also buying management, i think, when you're buying that stock.

there's a level of potential m & a. i've said it before, i'll say it against. i think at one point anthony noto could be running one of these banks via an acquisition in this world, that's not crazy. they appeal to a certain demographics that the older banks can't. >> i would say blackstone continues to be that name for me. >> really? >> they're finding their way into businesses. i know that sounds stodgy, definitely not de-fi, or whatever-fi. they got derailed on the china headlines, but i think -- >> i was trying to test the limits of karen's love for jamie dimon. >> it's pretty unlimited. >> i know. at&t plunging to the lowest close in more than 11 years, under fire after a reuters

report last week detailed the role in supporting the ultraconservative oem alternative. john oliver skewered the company. tim, do you still own it >> it's a big disappointment i think the whole time warner and this transaction and this un unwind has been sloppy, painful, ultimately has had some confusing elements to it that i think are not entirely clear the company has a lot of debt in an environment where they could have been more tactical. in the media content space, i think they need to have -- here. the company's core business is not in a bad place i think the predatory landscape in the wireless business is not a thing of the paths, but i would say it's not gone forever, but it's a thing of yesterday and it's a very successful and

cash-generating business i think there's a lot of uncertainly there now, but it's a name i'm holding. >> i wish carter were still around we just showed the 20-year chart. >> i'm sure c.w. is watching while the broader market is effectively at an all-time high, but they're at a 13-year low you look at their rival, specifically t-mobile, which has slowed up recently as well, but the divergence between the two companies has been severe. it's clearly something going on. i'm not here to cast aspersions necessarily, but we've said it for a while. if at&t can't perform in this environment, when will it? i think craig moffett, he just

raise d his price target from 23 to 28, so maybe it's found a floor, but i don't think this is ratcheting significantly high other. coming up, the case for hiding, joe zeidel joins us. and gambling on a payout in vegas, when they report next week "fast money" is back right after this esg is responsible investing. who's responsible for building esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve, with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim.

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welcome back do not miss the at work summit with a packed lineup of executives, voices on the future of work. register now at cnbc.com/events. builders all finishes -- our next guest has bet on housing, it's his top long-term pick. his firm is heavily invested in

the real estate market we've been reading how blackstone is getting deeper and deeper into housing, and i'm wondering, joe, what underpins this with rising rates on the hor horizon, and things are turning back to normal >> thank you for having me on. it's good to see you all i missed you all, but i've been watching the show every night. i've had you in my 4rleadership i would say our view is people are caught up in the short-term high prices, the sharp appreciation in home prices caused a really strong reaction, a number of people saying it's good time to buy a house, fell to the lower levels in 1982, when mortgage rates were at 14%. so we look at the housing industry and think that over time the higher home prices will pull in additional supply. it's really a terrific supply-and-demand story at this

point. on the supply side, basically we underbuilt housing for over a decade that's point number one. point number two, boomers have this tendency to want to age in place. we know there's 10,000 boomers that turn 65 every day there's been a trend they want to seek care at home and stay in their homes longer, so the boomer share of housing supply has remained stable. that suggests we're going to have to build more homes, so you have this accumulated definite at this time of about 5.5 million units, and an accumulated deficit, and then on the demand side, covid really exposed the pent-up demand even before covid more millennial were lives at home, and as a result of covid, it created a lot of pent-up demand.

i think it's going to be a long-term secular trend. >> joe, it's karen, thanks for being on, first of all i've got a question for you. one of the most sophisticated investors on the planet, when you make this big move into housing, one i think that moves the market similarly, but two, what are your expectations as a giant set of homeowners of what your returns will be over the next five or ten years in your housing investment >> sure. thanks for the question, karen first thing i would say is one of the things we have the ability to do very effectively, when we notice a trend in one business, we're able to step back and think about the different ways we can invest in that theme through other areas in our real estate practice, where we are among the largest real estate owners in the world,

we've had the largest exposure for multifamily rentals, particularly in the smile states that continue to benefit from migration. and we've done it through private equity, in recent acquisitions, among companies in the supply chain for housing, as well as companies, you know that are involved in, you know, the installation of cabinets, hardwood floors, through chamberlain, which owns lift master, which is inside garages, so to implement that in various different ways each one will have a different return profile, if you will, but from our perspective, it's about this really strong supply and demand story, a secular one, and, you know, really even with the threat of higher mortgage rates, you know, there's still -- when you look at, you

know, the debt service, as a percentage of disposable personal income, we're at record lows even with the prospects of higher interest rates, potential for higher mortgage rates, we still have a long runway for housing. i think it's one that will probably be one of the defining themes of this expanding >> joe, always great to speak with you it's been way too long i know guy likes to call you the original j.z., so thanks for being here. >> thanks for having me. >> guy, where would you go in the housing trade at this point? >> home depot has been a monster. it's right back to the 340 level. there are no such -- i know carter is watching as triple tops, and it's setting up for a whole new range. home depot has worked. obviously that sell-off a couple months ago hurt, so home depot

for me. >> tommy, las vegas sands, and options traders are going all in we have the action next, when "fast money" returns ♪ earl: - hey barista: - good morning, earl! narrator: - since our beginning, barista: - there he is! narrator: - we've looked to inspire and nurture each other, by asking what's possible? what's possible when we connect? office worker: - coffee's here! narrator: - what's possible when we come together. female 1: - kayla? female 2: - oh. is it ok to hug? narrator: - when we open our hearts.

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welcome back to "fast money. cramer's rolling the dice on this name, thanks to china you can read all about it in the investment club newsletter just point your code on the qr code at the side of the screen it will take you right there. las vegas sands getting a nice boost they report earnings next week, and options traders are already starting to ante up. mike khouw joins us with the action >> outpacing puts by 4 to 1, well above-average daily call action it's implying a move of about 7.7% between now and a week from friday after the company reports earnings that's pretty close to the average over the past eight reported quarters. the activity that caught my eye was the purchase in the october 29th weekly 44 strikes calls, over 7700 traded for about 44

cents. by two weeks from this coming friday, that would be an increase of more than 13% over the next two weeks. >> tim, how are you feeling about lvs? >> i'm feeling like i said to add to this trade, something that i think there's been plenty of exposure on the regulatory headwinds in macau, i think it's been as much about the transitory side, and certainly in macau, but it's not just a macau story. singapore is manage to be excited about, selling off vegas assets in digital assets even if texas, this is a company that i just think, again, you hit that bottom, that covid bottom about a month ago, it's

traded there, bounced off of it. i think there's incredibly negative sentiment here. i think that there's an opportunity. >> bonawyn, how about you? >> like tim mentioned, that $35 level is around where it bounced. personally, as i had i like draftkings i do like the contrarian call. in terms of mike, i think that's a great spot that's more of a trading position over the long run i think 13% is an aggressive move i probably would be fading those calls. >> guy >> i like the casinos. i think it was managrch 18th, 20 we tested that level, and i think on october 28th, i think the stock got lumped in with a lot of chinese names when they

were under pressure. i think tim is right to add to these positions. mike khouw, thank you. that's friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time for the full show up next, final trades. it's a thirteen-hour flight, that's not a weekend trip. fifteen minutes until we board. oh yeah, we gotta take off. you downloaded the td ameritrade mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya. ah, they're getting so smart. choose the app that fits your investing style. ♪♪ that building you're trying to sell, - you should ten-x it. - ten-x it? ten-x is the world's largest online commercial real estate exchange. if i could, i'd ten-x everything. like a coffee run... don't just sell it. ten-x it.

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time for the final trade let's go around the horn tim? >> our commodity discussion gets to petrokems i think they'll do it differently than the last time when they overextended. >> karen >> yeah, a few days ago i talked about the setup for banks not looking great. they pulled back a lot, specifically jpmorgan, so my final trade, long jpmorgan >> bonawyn >> i think today's price action tells you all you need to go, t.a.n. in the energy space. >> guy

>> karen trying to curry favor with the aforementioned jamie dimon. [ laughter ] i like what she did there. alcoa, mel. >>"m mey> adon" with jim cramer starts right now "mad money" starring jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and put it in context. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jimcramer after a rough day, dow only losing 250 points. s&p sinking