at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc and here is your top five at 5:00. stocks showing a sign of life this morning as the fed talks about tapering in november the concern there. more bank earnings big bank the focus once again as we await results this morning from some of the biggest names. the biden administration announcing ambitious alternative energy plans with a big investment in offshore wind. cracking down on the leakers the new steps reportedly being taken by facebook page following the fallout of the revelations by a former employee.

and our series on this country's lost workers and why there's a mass exodus of women in the workforce it's happening today, thursday, october 14th this is "worldwide exchange. good morning, good afternoon, or good evening and welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan good to be a back with you happy thursday morning here's how your money is shaping up on this thursday. stock futures are higher across the board. dow and nasdaq each up more than .5%. the nasdaq futures up 131 points dow up 200 as well this is after we were up pretty much -- exactly totally flat on the dow wednesday. from economic today we get the latest producer price index. a lot of focus on inflation and the weekly jobless claims data

banks are in focus once again. earnings today from bank of america, citi group, wells fargo, morgan stanley, u.s. bank corp., all out today wow, all that after j.p. morgan easily beat expectations yesterday in part because of better than expected loan loss and a little bit of release from its reserve but we won't talk about that ahead of the results let's check on treasuries. the 10 year yield, pushing back lower. it is at 1.54% we also have to talk about the story in the global markets and that is, what else, energy costs on the rise. oil right now back above 81 per barrel here, 84 per barrel in europe and natural gas creeping closer to $6 as well at 5.72. around the world the nikkei and japan and the cans bee in

south korea wrapping up nicely we saw the nikkei raise 1.5% while shanghai and hang seng were flat against. but they were closed for the holiday. let's look at the early trade in the european markets too we are seeing gains across the board. germany, uk, france all up about.75%. as always more on the markets and your money in moments p but to some of this morning's top stories, including the biden administration making a big bet on alternative energy. silva na is here with that and more >> reporter: brian, the white house is looking to expand the u.s.'s wind energy capacity. under the proposal, seven mayor offshore wind farms would be developed on the atlantic and pacific as well as the gulf of mexico the move is partof the plan to

generate enough electricity to power more than 20 million homes by 2030. foreclosures are starting to surge as programs from the pandemic are beginning to expire according to adam, lenders began the foreclosure process. states with the largest numbers of new foreclosures were california, florida, texas, new york and illinois. and finance leaders from the g 20 have signed off on the deal to revamp corporate taxes, agreeing to the pack amid their meeting in washington yesterday. the ministers also pledged to continue support for their own economies while also monitoring inflation due to continued global supply chain crunch issues brian, back to you. >> we saw ireland give in going from 12.5 to the minimum 15%

there. we'll see how it moves markets if it all. thank you. let's get back to the markets and the feds easy money policies, potentially starting to slow as soon as next month. now stocks largely shrugging that off we knew it was coming. the central bank has been telegraphing this move for so long it should come as a surprise to nobody josh wine is a portfolio manager and he joins us now. it's the most telegraphed move in history that's the reason, the fed to their credit, i'll give them credit, did a good job of basically saying this is coming, this is coming, this is coming every single day does it matter to you or should it matter to our viewers in the markets if it's in november, december, or january of next year >> i agree yeah, it's been well telegraphed, good to be with you, brian i don't think we should be too concerned that's getting too

into the weeds november, december, january, i think the odds are that it's one of those three months and certainly we can discuss which makes most sense but i think the fed ultimately wants to get back to a more normal course of action and certainly we've come a long way in the last year, it makes sense and everyone knew it was coming and everyone is on board with it >> yeah, certainly i mean, the concern is whether or not it hits the consumer. do we see interest rates overall rise we have had people on the program that made the case that rates, yeah, they might tick up to 2% or maybe even 2.5 but with the dead load of the united states and everything else that is going on, likely don't expect any kind of, quote, high interest rates for years or decades to come. would you agree with that? >> a little bit. i definitely don't buy the idea that rates have to go higher and necessarily will

about a month ago the ten was at 1.3 and marched quickly to 1.6 and beyond we've seen a pullback. ultimately it would make sense we have negative real yields and that's not right and the fed is behind that to a large degree i think what we're seeing is yeah, there's inflation but a lot of what is inflationary is also bad for the economy and bad for growth and i kind of come out on this idea that, you know -- we can talk about this in a minute, but very bullish on the market but the economy is a different matter i am a lot less so, i think we'll be in a growth environment. i think it's going to slow a lot. the market, we see the ten year down a basis point or two this morning and about eight bases points over the last few days coming off the highs i think the economy. we're dealing with shortages and supply chain issues and that is not inflationary to the extent that is a supply-side issue and has nothing to do with demand necessarily. >> yeah.

and we've said it before and we'll say it again for the people in the back the stock market is not the economy. they're often wildly two different things let's talk about individual picks you like sempra energy, when i hear people recommend utilities and pipeline companies like this, i think these are defensive plays. >> exactly yeah i would point out there was a time when utilities, both of these holdings are part of our gas utility fund and about a year and a half, two years ago, they traded at a premium to the multiple of the s&p. so yes, defensive but that makes it seem like these are tools and not operating companies with earnings growth and great management behind a strategy that's executed every day. so i think, you know, companies like southern and sempra exist in great geographies, southeast in the case of southern and in the western part of the country

for sempra diversified utilities, strong yields twice that of the s&p i think there's a great set up in terms of not only earnings growth but growth in the economy that supports that, but utility gs are up 5% this year i feel like death, taxes and the reversion of the mean are what we can count on. reversion of the mean in this case i think means there's a great possibility that utilities make up for lost ground. they pull back on rate fears i think rates don't move a lot higher from here as we work through things i think it's a great setup. >> we didn't have time to get to your other pick which is bj's wholesale. you like bjs. >> yeah. >> we'll get you back on again soon we'll get you soon to talk about why. josh wein, appreciate you

getting up early for us. we are getting going on this busy thursday. when we come back, the big money movers and a semiconductor giant. as europe grapples with the intensifying energy crisis, a ceo of one firm is here to explain how his company wants to change the game forever. your morning rbi is all about prices as we bring back our wall of inflation. see if anything has changed since april. here's a clue. they have. maybe not in a good way. futures, they're looking good, they're higher we're back right after this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so...

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welcome or welcome back, everybody. time for your big money movers, the three key stock stories of the morning. number one, taiwan semic semiconductor, the biggest maker reporting profit sales up 16% topping forecast with nearly two thirds of sales coming from customers in north america, the stock up a couple tenths stock number two is john deere, thousands of its workers have gone on strike days after rejecting a new six-year deal. last walk out at deere in the

usa was 1986 when workers struck for 163 days stock again not moving a lot, down .3. stock number three, it's not a stock at all, it's an etf. a good week for tan. check out the investco solar, tan, it's up 12% this week, putting it on pace for best week in a year. high costs are sending people back to thinking about solar nice move there. we have a long way to go still on deck, the super bowl halftime show, it's up for grabs. you've got disoriented self-driving autos and one ketchup maker getting into the halloween spirit more after this.

let's get more now on the growing energy crisis in europe with prices for natural gas and even coal both spiking in the last week. industry insiders around the world and on this show pointed the fingers at the region's push towards renewables too quickly away from fossil fuels. >> we've seen a transformation of their grid to prioritize the green aspects of their grid. and they've added probably more renewables in europe than any other place in the world what you're left with is a grid

that is not as reliable as it should be. >> what worries me a lot about the alternative energy isn't -- well, what worries me a lot about the alternative energy isn't the generation, it's the t tech knowledge cli of storage. they haven't stored enough energy to take them through this gap and supply they're going through now. >> one of the concerns around renewables is the ability to store the power once it's created by solar or wind or other aspects. there are companies working hard to solve the problem, one is frayer battery, they signed a 50/50 joint venture for a battery factory. tom joins us now we know renewables are the future i think the question in europe

is has the move been too fast, too quickly and they weren't ready. what do you have to say on the macro energy policy of europe right now? >> good morning, brian i think it's fundamentally important to speed up the investments into renewable energy and the storage to compliment it, as to your point. the world is going electric, has to go electric, it has to be renewable, with that being renewable we need large volumes of batteries or storage to compliment it as per previous comments this translates, of course, into massive investment requirements into battery storage and the report out by iea yesterday shows a large fraction of the investments going into renewable energy will have to go to storage and batteries. to your point have we underestimated the need to sort of speed up this, i think so meeting the climate agreement in paris will require that change

and how we invest in renewables and a step change in how we invest in batteries. and today it aims to be at the forefront of that development. we aim to develop the world's most sustained batteries, decarbonized at its core and targeting all systems that require storage in some ways to perform. that's evs, other mobility aspirations and it is energy system storage the u.s. is at the forefront of this development >> i think there are a couple concerns around the battery technology, tom, or there have been one is they fade off and you have to rebuy them, that's expensive. and the other of course they are made from natural resources like lithium which you dig out of the ground let's address the first, first how good is your battery storage technology right now how long can some of these batteries last >> so we have made the choice of selecting a u.s.-based

technology 24m out of boston, that's a development company that have developed the revolut revolutionized design in how to produce batteries. so we can produce batteries that last more than 20 years and that's just the start. i fundamentally believe it's possible to further drive performance of these batteries both in terms of energy and intensity and density as well as storage duration to your second point on recycling, i 100% agree to that notion and why it's a core part of any developer strategy today. over time we believe that a very large fraction of the raw materials being used in a steady state battery environment will most likely come from recycled materials. but until we get to that point a lot of new materials need to go into the space and we need to do that in a sustainable manner as well but there is enough material to get out there and do it and need to get on with it.

>> do you have a stable, safe, secure and relatively fairly priced supply of lithium and other minerals >> so we have secured a stable supply of the initial volumes we need for our initial facilities. we're working very hard to compliment that with additional supply moving forward. and i don't see any real bottlenecks on the horizon there probably will be temporary issues for certain developers. but there's very strong interest in participating in the decarbonized solutions that we are offering so so far, so good >> tom jensen, you guys are trying to solve a problem that the world needs right now, especially given all that we are seeing with what's happening in europe thankfully you guys seem to be protected in norway. i look forward to getting there and visiting i want to see the mountains i heard they're beautiful this time of year. >> they are extremely beautiful. you're more than welcome to come we're also developing batteries

in finland and the united states as we pointed out and we need to develop across the planet and hopefully we can be an inspiration to many. >> fantastic we appreciate you coming on, talking to us about a big new investment and big new technology certainly one that the world is looking forward to, tom, appreciate it. have a great day thank you. >> you too, brian. thanks thank you. right now let's get a check on some of this morning's other top headlines, including an update on the investigation into the january 6th insurrection frances rivera is in new york now with that and more good morning >> good morning, to you. the house panel investigation investigating the january 6th insurrection is digging deeper into a key figure in the case. the committee issued a subpoena yesterday to former acting assistant attorney general jeffrey clark. according to a nearly 400 page report released last week the former justice department official was involved in former president trump's bid to

overturn the 2020 election it also found clark was in contact with mr. trump in the days leading up to the capital attack and helped amplify lies about voter fraud. the subpoena came as the biden white house rejected a request from the former president to block lawmakers from seeing documents related to january 6th. the fda will begin deciding today whether to authorize covid-19 boosters from moderna and johnson & johnson. the agency's advisory committee will debate the safety and need for the extra doses. the final go ahead is not expected for another week. this as a new study finds mixing and matching vaccines are safe and effective. the information will be presented friday to the fda advisory committee. you can get paid to bing watch the simpsons a uk casino site is looking for a simpson's analyst to watch every episode. the company says the simpsons

predicted things like donald trump's presidency and coronavirus and they want to know what's in store for 2022. one person will get paid $6,800 plus a weekly box of donuts. some people are going to do it it's their thing, so might as well get paid for it if you want >> what's the hook see how long someone can stay awake or something >> to predict the future. >> there's always a catch. >> yeah. sit and watch the simpsons okay we'll find out what the catch is did he fail english? frances, thank you all right. now from batteries to electric cars shocking some folks on the streets of san francisco here with that and more the top trending stories is silvana. what do you have for us this morning? what's trending? >> there's an influx of confused self-driving cars that have been

crowded into dead end streets in san francisco lately up to 50 lost cars can come into the cul-de-sac today leaving drivers to have to manually turn the car around and disrupting other riders' routes. it's unclear why the waymos cars are getting confused in the specific area but residents say it's been happening the last two months the nfl is taking the rights to its super bowl halftime show to market with the current deal with pepsi to expire next year and heinz is leading into its role as fake blood this holiday season they're offering new tomato blood ketchup. and let's get a check on the top trending tickers on cnbc.com right now. the ten year treasury, apple,

tesla and alibaba. >> i think i like this ketchup situation, brian. >> anything other than "squid game". sold out everywhere, it's going to be a bunch of "squid game" people walking around. >> i'll do the ketchup one. >> let's do that i think your ketchup costume would cut the mustard. but you don't want to be a hot dog about it don't show off those are dad jokes and they're not good >> they make me laugh. >> thank you very much. >> see you later >> it's not hard at this hour but we appreciate it thank you. still on deck, the next wave of big bank earnings, i know you can't wait out in hours we'll dive into what to watch when all the numbers cross there are so many numbers. maybe also get some under the radar picks for you and tom

schutz is here with some of the financials they've been soaring and follow our podcast it's available on all the major podcasting as. a bk a moment.

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relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself. gearing up for the big bank earnings what will they say about the health of the american consumer and which ones should you be buying right now? facebook closing ranks

reportedly desperate trying to lock down leaks to the media as it continues to deal with the fallout over revelations of former employees and your morning rbi bringing back our wall of inflation. what is changed and what hasn't since april? you'll be shocked to see and you will only see it right here on "worldwide exchange. welcome or welcome back, and good thursday morning everybody. it's 5:31. welcome. futures are nicely higher right now. in fact, up across the board, s&p, dow, nasdaq they are all higher. in fact, we are seeing gains of 131 for the nasdaq, the dow up 208. as always, more on the macro markets in a moment, he said, as he picked peppers in the patch but right now let's get you caught up on a bonus for some individual stock ideas

if you remember rbi from all the way back on tuesday, it was on food and fertilizer prices and how soaring natural gas will impact those markets well, we mentioned that it could be good news for u.s. and canadian fertilizer companies like cf industries and mosaic because they could have a pricing advantage over european competitors who have to pay more for natural gas. it appears the smart folks at j.p. morgan agree. in a note they talk about the european energy crust and who may benefit. their analysts named a few stocks and recommend cf industries along with chemours, and nutrien in part because of what we talked about, the pricing differentials in north america and europe so new names for you the jp folks went on to talk

about marathon oil, petrobras and gazprom as winners on the oil and gas side so j.p. morgan coming out and recommending those six stocks and a couple others in europe yesterday. now to this morning's top stories including the latest on the fallout over facebook's latest scandal whether it cares about kids' mental health. the answer is to apparently keep employees from talking to the me media. silvana? >> brian facebook is reportedly taking steps to reduce internal leaks of company documents the company is making some of its internal online discussion groups private instead of public, including groups focused on platform safety and protecting information, protecting elections according to -- the move comes

after frances haugen disclosed documents showing facebook was aware of the dangers of the products but down played the effects publicly apple ceo tim cook is calling for companies like his to not be lumped in with those types of firms speaking in utah, cook weighed in on the growing calls for big -- for regulating big tech stressing a one size fits all approach won't work. >> the industry isn't monolithic there are very different segments and very different markets. you know, we're not in the social media business. as an example. and so i think you have to kind of take each one and make sure whatever regulation comes addresses whatever issue that you think exists and not write regulation that is so sweeping that it not only

gets the target, but gets everybody else at the same time. >> and the senate's top democrat in charge of bank oversight is calling on fed chairman jay powell to halt any financial deregulation senator sherrod brown calling on powell to stop any rollbacks until president biden nominates new members to the central bank. it comes as fed vice chair for super vision time as a top bank regulator ends wednesday while powell's term ends next year brian? >> silvana, thank you very much. >> sure thing, brian. it is a big day for bank earnings check this out you have bank of america, citi group, morgan stanley and wells fargo all reporting their numbers. this after j.p. morgan reported better than expected profits yesterday. revenues rose, loan losses came down and they released some of their reserves it's not just the big boys

many smaller banks have been rocking this year with the median return of the bank stock, a gain of 33%. for more on all of this brying n anton schutz welcome back i know you tend to focus on the smaller and mid size banks but of the massive banks we just mentioned, is there onethat yo like or are watching more closely than the others? >> sure. i mean, obviously you like j.p. morgan, but it's pretty close to fully priced it was a great quarter, put up fantastic numbers and everything just clicked that sets a high hurdle for the rest of the banks. we own wells fargo, it's a self-help story. they need some help. they have to get through the regulatory issues. they've got plenty of capital, they need to be able to grow once they're able to grow, the earnings will move a lot to the upside i think what's really important in this banking space today is

how much capital the banks have, and how much of the assets and the balance sheet is short term investments that's yielding almost nothing so the ability for the banking space to make less money isn't predicated on a steep yield curve it's predicated on being able to deploy all of that cash, the short term securities, into loans. i believe loan demand is going to pick up substantially as we go forward as america sort of works off all this cash from all the stimulus that it received, you know, from the federal government and there's still a lot of cash on everyone's balance sheets, corporation's balance sheets, individual's balance sheets. all the programs are successful for the economy but it's fuel for the economy to roar forward. we need to get people back to work manufacturing wants to hire people they want to put out new lines, redomesticate different

products but if you can't hire people you can't open new lines that's importantto get people back to work. >> outside of the big money center banks, goldman, they're basically a trading firm with a bank inside of it as well, jpm, morgan stanley the same way. then there are bank banks. their business is not complicated, they take deposits, they make loans and they try to make money on the difference and hope that everybody pays back those loans. many of those companies, the ones that you own, anton, have had spectacular years. i don't know if you own these, western alliance bank corp., east/west bank corp., valley national bank corp the ones we see in our hometowns some are up 70, 80% in 2021. how much more do these smaller names have left in the tank, so to speak >> as i mentioned before, earnings estimates i think are still low if loan growth returns, i believe it will return i like to hunt in places that

have above-trend growth. places like tennessee, texas tennessee first bank fbk and texas veritech, they're both going to have good growth this quarter in loans that's critical to be able to deploy that. yes, the returns have been spectacular this year but what's important is how badly these stocks performed for multiple years and obviously particularly they performed very poorly in 2019 and through all 2020 really. and this is just a comeback. and now we're basically still at a big discount to the s&p and a discount where some of these banks historically traded. and i believe the earnings are going to be far above trend and will grow faster than a lot of companies in the s&p as we move forward. i believe this is the roaring 20s. i think the economy is going to be strong the next few years there's so much fuel here. as we replace the cash, the debt will return and the loans will

be on the bank's balance sheets allowing them to grow earnings substantially. if the fed raises interest rates, everybody plays that all the time, and when the short terms rise, it's a variable bases. >> rates have to rise -- >> it's loan growth -- >> no, they don't. >> rates have to rise for these banks. is there a level at which they go up and it's going to harm them is 2% good for them or bad for them 2.5% if we get there. >> let's look at history rates have been here they're here over the last few years. they haven't been here banks made piles of money when interest rates were 5, 6%. so you really don't need to have rates go to 2% i think if they go to 1, 1.5%, you see estimates go higher. it's not just loan growth, that helps too. a steeper yield helps, it's not critical day-to-day.

but the reality is, you know, this is over time. a bank's balance sheet doesn't run off or get replaced on a daily basis. the market tries to trade that way, the 10 year yield is 154, it's where it is it's here today. it's where the expectations are. i see inflation, everybody sees inflation, every bank executive sees inflation they're as close to it as you can get. they have to lend to customers salaries are not transitory, they will be for quite some time if you want to get people back to work, you have to pay them, and it's just reality. >> once you pay them and raise their wages, you do not lower their wages unless you want to lose them. watching nashville, tennessee base fbk appreciate you bringing the names we never hear about anywhere else, buddy thank you. have a great day. >> you too thanks. >> you're welcome. on deck, maybe the most important story in america right

now. where are all the workers? we're going to continue our special series where the workers have all gone and the role that childcare will play in all of it that's next with kate rogers we're back right after this. it's another day. and anything could happen.

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because we all got the covid-19 vaccine and flu shot. and i could make the appointments right here. save time, schedule online. no wonder cvs pharmacy® is america's choice for vaccinations. welcome back the mass exit of women from the workforce amid the pandemic only growing worse with vice president harris calling that exodus a, quote, national

crisis one big factor in all of this is child care really, a severe lack of it. ylan mui is joining us with part of cnbc's week long series, "the lost workers". >> women were supposed to come back to the workforce once the schools reopened, but instead the data from september shows things got worse the number of working women dropped by 26,000 last month the first decline so far this year more than 300,000 left the labor force altogether and that was driven by the age group most likely to have school-aged children this diynamic is fuelling a debate in washington on how to address what you mentioned the vice president deemed a national emergency. democrats are proposing sweeping new programs aimed at shoring up the care economy no hopes of encouraging women to get back into the workforce they want to cap child care costs at 7% income, institute

universal prek, a paid family leave program and expand the child tax credit through 2025. >> we saw evidence showing if we were to increase our labor force attachment, especially women and care gives this would have an effect on economic growth because you have the talented workers staying in the workforce and contributing to your economy in that way. >> reporter: of course, republicans are criticizing this as cradle to grave socialism but even some moderate democrats are pushing back on the cost of these programs the white house, though, is betting that women are the key to growing the labor force and ultimately growing the economy back to you, brian >> you know, you're not just a reporter on this, you're a working mom yourself, you have a number of young kids you're on tv at 5:40 in the morning. you get it what are the chances of any of these policies becoming reality? >> reporter: brian, it is likely that if democrats do anything,

these are the policies that they are going to take on there is consensus amongst the democratic caucus, moderates and progressives, that childcare investments are among the top priorities for that social spending package that we keep talking about. the debate really is over how long they should last. should these be long-term programs or something that only lasts for a few years in order to bring down that cost? >> i was at general mills in minneapolis a number of years ago, they had an in-house day care families would bring their kids in, they could go down and check on them, hang with them for a couple of minutes throughout the day and i thought this is not hard why don't more companies do this >> reporter: brian, i have an in-house day care now we're all working from home, sometimes a little probseparation is good. >> you're not working from home, you're sleeping at the office. there's a difference.

>> reporter: right >> we can solve this i know we can. ylan mui on a serious topic. thank you, have a great day. on deck. we are bringing it back. the wall of inflation. and what is changed since we rolled it out in april here's a hint, it's not getting better a big programming note this is very cool. on monday we'll be at the milken conference in los angeles. and at noone eastern, something awesome, something we have never done before, a special one hour cnbc pro live stream with four big guests we'll get their global macro views on all parts of the market and economy. actionable ideas, all live, unscripted, off the cuff i'm nervous. check it out, it's at noon

eastern on monday, sign up today at cnbc.com/pro. noon eastern we're back right after this. (naj) at fisher investments, our clients know we have their backs. (other money manager) how do your clients know that? (naj) because as a fiduciary, it's our responsibility to always put clients first. (other money manager) so you do it because you have to? (naj) no, we do it because it's the right thing to do. we help clients enjoy a comfortable retirement. (other money manager) sounds like a big responsibility. (naj) one that we don't take lightly. it's why our fees are structured so we do better when our clients do better. fisher investments is clearly different. [swords clashing] - had enough? - no... arthritis. here. new aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. nurse mariyam sabo knows a moment this pure... ...demands a lotion this pure. new gold bond pure moisture lotion.

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now this is something we want to see. don't wait. ask your healthcare provider about nuplazid. today's rbi stays on the inflation story because while you may have heard about the official government inflation numbers coming in maybe a little less bad than feared last month, let's get real because in the actual real world almost nothing is coming down in price. how do we know because we follow it closely if you remember all the way back on april 28th, we brought you what we called the ingeniously named wall of inflation and all the things that were up in price from the previous year so we thought, let's revisit it, see how things have changed and maybe add a couple new important things like oil, natural gas and even cotton. our guess is, you might use some of those things. so here we go with the wall again and what has changed since april 28th

let's list all the things that have gone up in price. here we go housing, it's gone up, rents have gone up new prices of cars have gone up. used car prices have gone up oil is up 30%. natural gas has doubled since then to charter a ship is up 115% shipping containers up 45% steel up 25% coffee up 40%. and cotton prices up 17% all of that in less than six months now thankfully not everything has gone up. some of the things on our wall have stayed flat, copper, semiconductors and wheat, they're all flat, of course, that depends on if you can buy a semiconductor right now. there are a couple things that have gone down in price. the good news part of the show things that have gone down in price. well, corn, lumber lumber is down 46%, although

it's surged again. corn is down 22% our wall of inflation going back to april 28th on that giant wall, almost everything has gone up in price since april. so if we had the wall of inflation back then, we'll call it the wall of really super duper, serious inflation natural gas and oil affect pretty much everything in your life the wex wall of inflation. don't blame us we hope it's random but interesting. let's continue the inflation conversation now with erin gibbs. not only does inflation 'cause us to pay more for pretty much everything, it may influence the fed to raise rates or the bond market to do it sooner for them, what does that mean for stocks tie them together. >> so a couple of things obviously financials are taking

a harder hit, which is unusual this time since normally yield curves and inflation is generally seen as good for banks but in this case because it's so far out and it's hitting the economy so quickly, that's hurting them but i think the biggest impact right now what we're really seeing is that it's hurting those small caps and mid caps the hardest. and they've been really stuck in this trading range since we saw this inflation since your april worries. small caps, mid caps basically been trading completely flat and so, this further inflation and further signs all these new numbers coming out, means they're probably going to be stuck in another trading range for quite a few months and we may not see them recover into their up trend and break out of that trading range well until 2022, until we see theseworrie go away because obviously when you're a smaller company, higher

interest rates, higher capital costs, those affect you a lot more than when you can more easily process it when you're a larger company or you have more inflation protection so these are the companies that are most vulnerable and we're going to probably see underperformance for quite a few months ahead >> when we say higher rates, too, let's be clear we're talking 2%, which would have been lower rates a couple years ago, erin but higher rates eat valuation. it's harder to own a company at 24 times earnings with rates on the rise that's the whole point. >> exactly and that's what it's really about. we talk about, you know, we justify these super high valuations for these stocks. particularly for these smaller cap stocks as well as the large caps and all of that needs to come down so we've seen the s&p 500, its valuation come down since april, since the spring, and it's been

in a fairly steady down trend. but if inflation and interest rates continue to increase and it's been a pretty steady increase, it's going to need to come back to what we saw at pre-pandemic levels, which is more about 17 to 18 forward earnings versus the 20-ish times earnings we have now that doesn'tnecessarily mean w need to see a 15% decline in the market it could just mean that again we see a bit more sideways action until the earnings start catching up, starts growing and lowering the valuation therefore. >> before we let yougo, you're always great for ideas give us a name of a stock we can own in this environment. >> yes so what can you buy when things are so expensive one stock i like is salesforce it really has exceptional growth over the next three to five years it's a quality company, exceptionally high margins it

doesn't have to worry about high borrowing cost, plenty of cash on hand. and their inflation is all about higher wages so it's something that they can more easily process over the next few years. so that's my pick of the day >> crm we are watching it very closely. maybe the inflationary environment we're in erin gibbs, thank you have a great day. that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. we'll see you same time, same bat channel tomorrow morning have an awesome day. "squawk box" and the gang picking it up nextit wh futures up grab a cup of coffee, could be a good one today see you tomorrow

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big banks are going to report, bank of america, citi group, morgan stanley, wells fargo, all before the opening bell. the biden administration meanwhile announcing ambitious plans for alternative energy with a big investment in offshore wind farms. details straight ahead plus, u.s. workers pushing employers for better pay and benefits employees at deere are striking this morning and hollywood crews could be halting work next week it's thursday, october 14th, 2021 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick. along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and things are looking up this day. at least if you are a bull check out the u.s. equity futures at this hour