we will see how it goes. see if they are in the right kind of place again. all of the banks have run up a bit this week. >> we will see how much they beat, if they do in general, i think a lot of the things you would want to see if this was a temporary september/october shakeout -- >> today was the best day in seven months we are out of time thanks for watching. "fast money" starts now. >> we are overlooking new york city's times square. the big warning, the woman with a front row seat to the last financial crisis says another could be brewing sheely is sounding the alarm and will join us exclusively and macy's on the move could this spark the ultimate turn around in retail?

and how traders are playing this pop. the s&p locking its best day since march. the nasdaq jumping 1.7%. look at some of the high flyers leading the charge - all outperforming the broader market and the move comes as rates continue to move lawyer. the yield on ten-year treasuries dropping for a third straight day. market is 2% away from record at this point is this a green light for stocks and is it okay to be in the higher valuation parts of the market guy? >> it's fascinating. last time rates moved lower from the 175 level maybe we missed the move higher. i think the market is shooting

first into buying these names and asking questions later i do think yields are going higher, but i understand the thoughts behind this tim and dan talk about this all of the way taiwan may be the most important stock we don't talk about. i think rates are going higher, but this move is taking place in a short period of time i think the calculus is the jobs number wasn't great, ppi maybe the same i think the market is trying to get ahead of something they think is coming. i think it's misguided >> tim, you have been saying to watch tsm, what do you think about this move? the higher betas of the market >> there are some weird supply-demand dynamics going on. for the past 18 months we have

known no matter the headlines during the pandemic, there has always been a lot of demand for chips because they are going to all of these different places. demand will be there for taiwan semi, the fact the stock didn't act better may be a slight concern on a day when the nasdaq is up but at least it didn't fall apart. you could look at jp morgan yesterday that had good results and didn't trade particularly well it was below levels earlier in the week i think this will be a cyclical play the fact once demand and supply meet up, these will be humming in 2022. >> can we focus out semiconductors versus some of the other parts of the market?

if you can separate semis as sickca cyclical, but maybe others could go higher. >> to dan's point we talk about semis as cyclical, but semiconductors become more ubiquitous in products they weren't used before. that's very relevant to me the other thing about the super high flyers is a lot of them were benefited by the pandemic to the fact we start to come out of that and if the economy improves, i think rates will go higher i think the whole reason of being in that trade exists that's why i think of as one of

the things as giving it lower valuation. what is baked in already in terms of companies missing on supply chain issues? is there a free pass for this past quarter or christmas or will we see them get hit again and again? i don't know that will be interesting to watch. >> that's what we talked about, the season of excuses. if you are a company, this is your time to say it is a supply chain issue, labor shortage, and could be a valid excuse, valid reason for not taking estimates higher or not making estimates, tim, but in terms of what we are seeing in the markets today, if rates go higher, and here we are at 1.5 and change. and they are not going higher than 1.78. do you trade the range in the

treasury yield when you inch higher, you don't want to be in them when they are lower, you get in them >> it's a present giver's dream. i can show it's a christmas day deal i think we are making a bigger deal out of rates. these moves, we are back 12 bits off the intraday high. we have been inching higher. i do not want to be at 75 basis points over 175 on the tenure. you talk about cyclicality i think there is something going on here that semis are much less cyclical than they used to be. think of the parts of the world that are now more staples and the chips world more broadly

think of autos and the other places, graphics and gaming. chips are part of every industry i don't think it is as cyclical as it used to be i also love the fact that atf is challenging above 100. that chart is what markets need to see, but i don't think they need to be leading in the same way. the market is about earnings, about companies that are delivering, at least the ones we have heard of so far, and the expectations into the earning season because of all of the things that get people at christmas, i think they are flagged. >> so tim makes the point they are more secular, ever present therefore, should their valuations be less cyclical,

more accepted where they are they are not higher valuation because it is a more secular story or more defensible >> i believe so. we have had that conversation in different forms over the years the names we continue to point to along the lines is amd which is high valuation, but you can justify it, and nvidia the flip side is that a name like micron which proves over and over again as much as you want to make it a secular story, it is in the form of commodity and pricing. >> i get what karen and tim say. i think if you are looking for proof positive, look at the divergence between the three names i mentioned. let's go to the chart

master, carter worth what are the charts telling you? >> what is so fascinating is that every once in a while a level takes on great importance, meaning where the market went to today and where it closed. we know it is not a pe matter. often it's just technical. let's look at three charts in the same time frame and make a point that i think matters for all of us. there was an unfilled gap left from two weeks ago at the 4436.19 level. today we filled that gap look at the second chart, same timeline the down trend essentially also comes into play right at

4435.36. and the third chart. the unfilled gap -- the trend line is not random, not valuation or gdp the market filled the gap, went to the down trend line and now will it be able to push on we have a head and shoulders bottom i think the september highs will not be easily exceeded >> wow so we might have seen the best for the rest of the year carter, good to see you. thank you so much. >> dan, do you agree >> carter redefines right in front of us. that's pretty specific it may not be random

if the market was still open, i think it would still be raising higher it feels like that was the sort of reversal day that a lot of bulls needed to feel microsoft is less than 1% from its all time highs a lot of constructive charts if we are saying a lot of the news is discounted in the last five months or six weeks price action, then it leaves you to be left bearish if we are going to digest fundamental news better and the chart is constructive, that's how i feel about it. i would like him to be right during the earning season the tide can change quickly. we talked about banks for the last week and a half yesterday they looked bad. today good tomorrow they may look bad again. i think you have to wait a couple weeks into earning season before a trend is made >> we talked about the setup,

the run in something the s&p 2% off highs that seems like a setup that stinks going into earnings season >> you would think, but it has proven me wrong over and over again. we played choose your own odyssey a few weeks ago. i think we had 19 to choose from i thought we would trade down to 4100 and then close higher than the all-time high earlier this year i will sort of stand by that although i am hard-pressed to back that up given today's action i think we are in for one whoosh to the downside. if it was colder out i could sit by the fire and listen to carter worth read just about any novel he wants to pull out of his library. he is poetic >> and also the tones of his

voice, also. moderna rallying on booster knews. -- news. today it was voted to recommend booster shots for those who got moderna vaccine and are at least six months out. it is the same as for the pfizer, 65 and over or ages 18 or 64 and at high risk of severe covid and ages 18 to 64 with setting related risk it was said that the benefit-risk didn't make sense for all healthy people at this moment there was discussion whether the age should be lowered to 50 and that will be in on going

discussions. that is setting the stage for the fda to clear this. and then the cdc talking about it next week and probably becoming available at the end of next week. johnson & johnson, it may be more complicated because it is just one dose. and tomorrow we will hear from the nih about mixing and maxing boosters that is key. the next stage will be competing to be the booster of choice. you may see nova vax competing moderna popped on this vote. >> does this open the idea of mixing and matching boosters that possibly another manufacturer that's not pfizer or moderna could come in with the booster of choice?

>> so far it is just these three but it is the first step saying it may make sense to switch up the type of vaccine you get. so they could be competing in the next round if we have to get vaccines seasonally like for flu, it may not just be limited to these three companies >> thank you we mentioned biontech at the top. do you think this is a game changer for moderna which got the biggest pop today? >> carter in his delta tones would have said to the penny it's fascinating we saw this through the early stages of when we were starting to get a glimpse of who was leading the race on a vaccine. and the follow up, what would be

the standard what would be follow-up boosters i don't think we know in terms of how the prices of these stocks will trade. we don't understand where they will be price. where the competitive landscape will be. meg pointed out there is a chance you could have somebody come in and be the king maker in terms of who they are partnering with or where there is efficacy. i think with moderna you have valuation very difficult despite a company that hasproven it is not necessarily a one-trick pony although that is what has taken them here. i think there will be a lot of news for all of these companies, strength to be fated on vaccines >> guy, your thoughts? >> karen was way ahead of this i think it goes back to fall of last year that the winner would not be pfizer in terms of fox, but moderna, and she was spot

on it has gone up four fold while pfizer has gone up points. i think a $115 price target in moderna. we said we could see 325 tim pointed out we overshot that i hear what tim is saying in terms of fading it but i think this stock has one more run to the upside >> after hours update on virgin galactic >> it has hit a snag with its space flight commercial tourism will be pushed out to the fourth quarter of 2022. shares are dropping. they have an enhancement period so they are checking the

performance, but one of their lab tests flagged a drop in strength of materials used to modify they said they will have to do further inspections and then they intend to complete the testing programs as well as a planned test flight with the italian air force. it looks like it will be a bit longer before you can book with virgin galactic. >> i can feel the disappointment >> i know. >> dan, this isn't their core business >> who cares this is what you would want this company to do. let's make sure when you send these up, they come back with the people so pushing something out a

quarter or two doesn't matter. i know this is a controversial stock and people think there are other space companies more interesting, but wouldn't you want to be sure that these companies focused on taking people to space are doing it in a safe manner? i don't own the stock. i find it to be interesting. i think ten years from now, fast money or space money or whatever they call it, there may be a lot of space stock the idea of pushing it out six months, who cares. >> coming up, sheely bair is sounding the alarm, worried another financial crisis could be in the cards. plus the ultimate comeback in retail. >> and macy's says this stock could double again if they do

just one thing what that is ♪ earl: - hey barista: - good morning, earl! narrator: - since our beginning,

barista: - there he is! narrator: - we've looked to inspire and nurture each other, by asking what's possible? what's possible when we connect? office worker: - coffee's here! narrator: - what's possible when we come together. female 1: - kayla? female 2: - oh. is it ok to hug? narrator: - when we open our hearts. female 2: - this is like the best date i've ever been on. narrator: - when we grow together. narrator: - after 50 years, we've learned that possible is just the beginning.

baaam. internet that doesn't miss a beat. that's cute, but my internet narstreams to my ride.ears, adorable, but does yours block malware? nope. -it crushes it. pshh, mine's so fast, no one can catch me. big whoop! mine gives me a 4k streaming box. -for free! that's because you all have the same internet. xfinity xfi. so powerful, it keeps one-upping itself. can your internet do that? shares of southwest gas

rallying carl eye can said he plans a proxy battle he is thwarted for southwest to abandon their deal to buy. >> this is classic carl, coming out guns blazing had a letter with a few pokes to the ceo. said i tried to call you, but the secretary said you were out to lunch he wants to do it via a rights offering which allows current stock owners to buy stock if he feels they are buying it too cheaply. a tender offer is aggressive it's interesting he didn't put

out a 13-d which i think means he is still buying stock he may be buying stock right now. at some point i assume there will be a 13-d from him. it's classic carl. he's still at it >> that is true fine print, the notion that he is still out there buying stock that adds another interesting dynamic to this whole thing. >> no question carl wants to tell people i haven't left i still have a little left on the fastball it's october and i think he wants to show people he's throwing heat. it is classic carl eicahn.

we did a skit where we auctioned off a carl icahn maybe we can pull that out >> macy's is being urged to auction off jannik as a stand alone. we have heard this before. this is confirmation about what jana was interested in doing yet the stock moves higher once again. would you like to see this happen >> i like an activist dynamic, a 15 1/2 short interest and that could show you know what out of those folks. the stock is moving around but this is a company that will.

their store footprint has been shrinking every year and accelerated by covid they are cash flow positive. they will have a billion in cash and two billion in unemcumbered real estate. it stands on its own it's too cheap the balance sheet has survived i think you can be a shareholder without all of this. but 15% short interest take a look at that and look at the impetus for people to come in and cover >> short interest is another dynamic. >> it is the stockhad a big run people have told us department stores are dead as door nails. the last time you had activists involved, that real estate was valued equal to its market cap

five or six years ago, if i recall i don't love taking the idea of an old line department store and taking the one brand that has saved them i wouldn't buy it. i am not telling anybody if i owned it, i would sell it. because in a story like this, they want to be constructive >> we are just getting started here on "fast money. front row seat to the last financial crisis says another could be brewing sheila bair joins us next. plus another black eye for boeing new problems with the dreamliner plane. how our traders are navigating this trade i'm so glad we did this.

i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones so, should all our it move to the cloud? the cloud would give us more flexibility, but we lose control. ♪ ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go? ♪

and we need insights across our data silos, but how? ♪ if i go there will be trouble ♪ ♪ ♪ wait, we can stay and go. hpe greenlake is the platform that brings the cloud to us. ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪ ♪ ♪

a big day for banks. which banks report stood out to you the most >> bank of america they had good expense control. when you start to have that higher nim and better expense control -- sorry about that -- then you get good earnings that was impressive. of the bunch that was the best, a little embarrassing for jp

morgan, not as good of growth as some others. that will weigh on jamie but the stock had a nice day sold off a bit going into this that was the most interesting of the bunch. morgan stanley, different kind of animal. i think there is a higher multiple >> dan >> i think karen is correct. the morgan stanley thing is interesting. goldman sachs will be tomorrow morning. i would be more focused on them. we were focused on the interest margins. i'm kind of more in that camp less than the money banks to this point >> guy, i know you watch closing bell closely and religiously >> religiously

>> the valuation of morgan stanley versus black rock, the valuation of morgan stanley is considerably lower should it reflect more of the strength in the as set management business? >> i think so. i have a memory like an elephant it has to be over a year or so ago that dan nathan pointed out morgan stanley had the best looking chart out there. a couple of years i would not have said that, but they have morphed into something a lot of people are aspiring towards, three distinct business units. i think they are growing into it i think we trade through the 195-ish and i think it will deservedly grow. jim cramer sticking by one

big name he said be patient with this turn around story. sign up for the investment club newsletter details on the screen. and sheila bair is worried about a financial crisis sheila, great to have you with us >> thanks for having me. >> choosing the term financial crisis is trikcky because you ar shell-shocked and look back to the great financial crisis but what do you see could be the scenario here? >> i think it's avoidable, but i think interest rates will go up. asset valuations are elevated across the board as monetary policy because less accommodatetive, some of those

valuations will start dropping let's not forget what triggered the 2008-2009 financial crisis the fed went too fast on their interest rate hike so this is tricky the history of tightening is not always -- without a negative impact on the economy. i think it's avoidable i think the fed has a significant challenge in front of them. >> sheila, it's tim. is there a part of the economy -- it's easy to look at banks in the pre-crisis leadup to value derivatives banks have different balance sheets and business models where are you concerned in the private sector >> they are in better shape. as strong as they need to be

i don't know a lot of the risk has gone outside the banking sector there is another crisis. i don't know if it's necessarily with the big banks, but there is a financial sector pretty highly leveraged. the corporate sector is leveraged. rates will go up i don't know if it will start with the banks it may start outside the banks i hope it doesn't happen at all. i have been a policy of this long-term policy, but i think they need to go slow where they are thinking by mid next year, i think they need to rethink that inflation is a real concern. it has been a long time since

interest rates have gone up. we are not sure what the optimum moment will be >> sheila, it's karen. it sounded like you were concerned about banks being sort of in '94 there was that negative duration, but now they are so asset sensitive, that seems it wouldn't be a risk. is there more -- >> again, yes -- again, i don't think this is necessarily going to start with the banks. they are leveraged to some extent yeah, but sure if it starts someplace else it will cascade back and hit them corporate date, a lot of it will be experienced from the financial market i don't think it will destabilize the banking system it may

but there is a chance of financial turmoil and investors getting hurt if it cascades into a negative economic situation, downturn and recession, that could create problems and create credit losses i think all of this can be avoided, but the fed needs to go very, very slow. >> you have been at this a long time >> sheila, i am curious where you think this could start and it sounds like you are alluding to the shadow banking and those that have lent money to various entities that may not be as credit worthy. if it is in the banking system there are bailout systems as we have seen in the past. but if it happens in the shadow system, we have never crossed that bridge before >> no, we haven't. hopefully we will not have to. longer term that is even more

destabilizing. asset managers, there are bailouts already so there is bailout thinking already for these nonbank sectors that inn innocent adviss it could flow back on the balance sheets another is not crises, but we have constraints, fiscal stimulus flying into the economy, could be more coming out of washington. if we keep pouring fuel onto the demand side, you are going to end up with stag-flation which

could be another ugly scenario for working families it could have a devastating impact for workers who are just finally seeing wage growth that is another area high on my worry list >> sheila, it sounds like there is a higher risk for negative incomes coming out of easy monetary than positive >> short-term it's going to be a very difficult transition to navigate best of luck we have a lot of talented people at the fed they really need to be very careful and gradual on how they start to taper

into sheila, great to see you again. >> thank you >> never good when you say best of luck. dan, what do you think of all of this >> i think she brings up good points the banking sector screw things up right when they think they have it if you look back stagflation. we talked about these banks again, morgan and goldman, we thought their building was going to fall off a cliff in 2020 and look at the results in 2021 and projected in 2022. these are off 13 or 14% from their recent highs they haven't budged at all

at least 20% in earnings and sales growth >> guy sheila wasn't uplifting for thursday afternoon what do you think? >> she is not one for hyperbole, so when she says things like that, you have to listen one thing she said, it will be hard to navigate i agree with her i will submit this and then i will let you go. it's extraordinarily hard to navigate if they look at it through the lens of the market if the market is the concern it's almost impossible to circumnavigate if they take the market out, it's easy, and you let the market do what it wants to do. but i think they become enslaved in the market. details of walgreens trade don't go anywhere.

"fast money" is back in two. ♪ i see trees of green ♪ ♪ red roses too ♪ ♪ i see them bloom ♪ ♪ for me and you ♪ ♪ and i think to myself ♪ ♪ what a wonderful world ♪ a rich life is about more than just money. that's why at vanguard, you're more than just an investor,

you're an owner so you can build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. make fitness routine with pure protein. high protein. low sugar. tastes great! high protein. low sugar. so good. high protein. low sugar. mmm, birthday cake. pure protein bars and shakes. for every fitness routine.

welcome back boeing is under pressure let's go to phil lebeau.

>> this was pointed out by a boeing supplier as they did a look this is what they detected there could be deif he cantive titanium brackets. this is not a flight safety issue. these are brackets that secure the floor to the fuselage. important much you want to have it checked, but it will not force dream liners to be pulled out of the schedule. deliveries have been halted since may. the final inspection process has not been approved by the faa they are going back and forth as part of the review until the faa signs off on it, they will not be delivering

dreamliners. we have been hearing for sometime they are close to getting it approved by the faa until that happens, it will not be being delivered they have only had one cancellation of a 787 in the last couple months, but regulregulative to the s&p 500, it hasn't done much they have already said they expect to deliver fewer than half of the dreamliners this year but if they don't get the approval, they will likely deliver less than half the end of covid-19 over the next year and a half worldwide and see more international travel and more airlines wanting a long haul airplane, they will want their dreamliners it has been okay not to deliver

them over the last seven or eight months, but that has to change relatively quickly. that's why you see pressure on shares of boeing as they say what else is going on with this plane. >> phil, thank you dan, you flagged this chart. it was a pretty big underperformer >> just a series of lower highs. we talked about virgin galactic delaying their flights but this company has quality assurance problems it's that simple tim probably feels different as a shareholder, but they had two planes go to the ground because of their negligence. i think they should be as slow as possible. >> i think the story over the last couple days is about deliveries 787 is the profit center that's a disappointment.

the max is still in inventory. expectation they won't get below 320. that is the storing of boeing. but the correlation for boeing, as airline travel picks up, boeing will do better. a shot in the arm. back in two.

today, things can be pretty unexpected. but your customers, they still expect things to be simple. and they want it all personalized. with ibm, you can do both. businesses like insurers can automate it processes across clouds. so agents can spend more time on customer needs. and whatever comes your way, you've got it covered. saving time and improving customer service, that's why so many businesses work, with ibm. [swords clashing] - had enough? - no... arthritis. here. new aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme.

welcome back to "fast money. take a look at walgreens surging. the big reversal of the company kicked off investor day. there was a new $5.25 billion investment what did you make of this move and the ceo? >> i am long this stock. i think there is some concern about the village md investment. but there are customers that

will be a recurring revenue stream they talked about 4% growth in revenue earnings the stock at 10 pe wasn't reflecting expectation of growth that's what turned it around i think she deserves benefit of the doubt. i'm long i think flu and covid booster shots will help. i am willing to give her the benefit of the doubt >> you like moderna on boosters, you may like this, too >> roz was the ceo of sam's club and comes from walmart as well you are betting on her i think it's worth that bet. should it be trading at a market multiple, no but 15 multiple, you have

significant upside i think you can buy wba here we will have a trade next.

it's another day. and anything could happen. it could be the day you welcome 1,200 guests and all their devices. or it could be the day there's a cyberthreat. only comcast business' secure network solutions give you the power of sd-wan and advanced security integrated on our activecore platform so you can control your network from anywhere, anytime. it's network management redefined. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities.

welcome back one semiconductor name getting battered mike breaks down the action. >> we are taking a look at intel which is always one of the busier names we see. puts outpacing calls the most active options were january 50 puts. it is one of the most busy chip options we saw today buyers of the puts btietng despite the rally, that intel could go lower options action tomorrow at 5:30 p.m. eastern time up next, your final trade. ose st of the big picture, even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim trading™ is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform full of customizable tools. dedicated trade desk pros and a passionate trader community

sharing strategies right on the platform. because we take trading as seriously as you do. thinkorswim trading™ from td ameritrade.

your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire so, should all our it move to the cloud? the cloud would give us more flexibility, but we lose control. ♪ ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go? ♪ and we need insights across our data silos, but how? ♪ if i go there will be trouble ♪ ♪ ♪

wait, we can stay and go. hpe greenlake is the platform that brings the cloud to us. ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪ ♪ ♪ final trade time tim? >> facebook has bounced nicely best mega chart out there. >> karen >> i am betting with roz brewer. walgreens boost. i like it a lot.

>> dan nathan? >> pfizer. >> guy adami >> giants/dodgers, pick, mel, quickly. >> giants. >> i am with you on that one also said papal reports next week i think it's novembe my mission is simple. ta o make you money there's always a work somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. i'm trying to make you alittle money. my job is not just to entertain you but the teach you on days like today call me or tweet m