space early next year. it's friday, october 15th, 2021. and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe is out today we're going to start with the markets because this is some pretty big news. you were watching yesterday you know the dow jumped 535 points up more than 1.5%, breaking a four day losing streak and putting in its best one day performance since july 20th. the s&p and nasdaq had hotter hands yesterday, each higher than more than 1.7%. for the s&p it was the best performance since back to march. if you were looking at the nasdaq, it was its best performance since may. and there's no stopping with it

this morning u.s. equity up again in the green and dow futures triple digits again s&p futures up by about 15 the nasdaq indicated up by about 40 points. there are lots of things higher if you're looking across things. first if youcheck out the ten year yield it's higher too, 1.549%, lots of talk about inflation heard it from the bank ceos yesterday we'll talk about it again today energy prices this is one of the clearest places it's showing up. wti up by about 71 cents back above $82 that came after wti sat at its highest settlement since october of 2014 yesterday. right now wti is on pace for an eight-week winning streak. you are talking about higher prices, up, up, up, same story for brent at $84.73. and natural gas which is up by another 1% today even though it's kind of calmed down a

little bit with the gains we've been tracking for so long with natural gas. also check out cryptocurrencies today, bitcoin briefly hitting $60,000, the highest price since april. there's a bloomburg story reported today, talking about what's happening with bitcoin and crypto the s.e.c. is set to allow a bitcoin futures etf to start trading next week. they haven't put a stop to it yet. if they do, this is monumental these are different etfs, filed under mutual fund rules that gary gensler said has significant investor protections. if that happened you can see why bitcoin could be trading near $60,000 today. >> these funds will be -- ultimately having to buy underlying bitcoin the one thing i can't figure out, we're watching the markets fly, bitcoin fly, and at the same time maybe this explains it, you look at the home page of the drudge report this morning,

global economy perfect storm, cheap food bing over, prices skyrocket. you think the world is coming undone but maybe you need to hold on and hold the assets while everything is moving up. >> makes cash a lot less attractive play. we heard earlier this week the social security cola makes going up 5.9%. holding money in cash, you are a sa saver, you are going to get killed in the moves. cash is trash. that's so much more the story when inflation kicks in. >> let's talk about the fda panel because unanimously recommended giving booster shots of moderna's covid vaccine to people ages 65 and older and other vulnerable americans a final decision could come within days from the fda and the cdc would consider the proposal. if both agencies sign off, shots could begin as early as next week for americans who completed

their first round of shots six months ago next on the docket, the fda advisory committee is meeting today about the j&j vaccine boosters we'll see where they land. i imagine -- i don't know what i imagine but i imagine they're going to approve all of them interestingly we talked about what appears to be the benefit of the mixing and matching at least in the context of those who took the j&j vaccine early on in terms of getting a booster that's an mrna booster. >> i might still have concerns about mixing and matching at this point just because it was a narrow study and it -- a narrow study that was looking at all the mixing and matching these are things they have to work out a little more. you might feel more comfortable taking the one you already took. if you had a j&j shot first it might be better to take mrna they pointed out for the second. >> if you've taken the pfizer or moderna, it seems like from an efficacy perspective it doesn't matter if you took the pfizer or

moderna. the moderna one effectively half the dose of the last one. >> 50 milligrams versus the 100 for the original. >> it's different from the pfizer. >> the one thing that means is they will have to roll out the new -- like pfizer, remember they are in the process of making the new ones for kids if that becomes approved for kids ages 5 to 11, because that's one third the size the question with moderna, are they allowed to take more doses out of the vile or have to do the smaller vile and will that take time to work its way out? >> i don't have the answer but kavita patel does. we'll so to speak with dr. kavita patel we learned former president bill clinton was hospitalized on tuesday night with a non-covid related infection in california. a statement released said president clinton was admitted to the hospital for close

monitoring and administered iv antibiotics and fluids he is responding to antibiotics well shares of virgin galactic are falling after delaying the beginning of its tourism space service to the fourth quarter of 2022 they'll begin work refurbishing their spacecraft and carrier craft. the process expected to last 8 to 10 months that work was originally scheduled after the next space flight but a recent test flagged a possible issue with the strength in the material in the certain joints that requires physical inspection. i find it so bizarre we just talk about a spacecraft. the spacecraft these are things that -- >> it has become routine very quickly. >> we didn't talk about spacecraft that was not a reality. >> something a few years ago

that wouldn't be possible. now you have william shatner going up and coming back down the same day >> right. >> it seems like all of a sudden it's not out of reach for ordinary people to go up. >> did you see prince william, not happy about all of this? >> i did see that. >> thinks the billionaires are spending too much money on this. >> let's focus on the planet. >> they have the money, spend it on the planet. >> preserve the planet we have here rather than going off and shooting off to see these things he's got a point most of us are stuck here, will be here forever, for us. >> i think we will >> yeah. >> i think we will i don't know i don't know how i feel about it i'm hoping that maybe some of these trips turn out to be, you know, there's some kind of great science that's learned in the process that does help us here that's the way i try to rationalize it >> i guess so. i kind of like it here alcoa shares are higher after

the company swung to profit in the most recent quarter. earnings and revenue beat estimates with the rise in aluminum products. that stock up by more than 6% this morning and janet partners has taken a stake in macy's and prodding the retailer to spin off the fast growing ecommerce business. janet believes a standalone ecommerce business would be worth a multiple of the current market value of macy's sacks is in the process of separating its ecommerce business this is the same question should they be together, apart? you have amazon now opening stores you have places like target and walmart that have done phenomenal, target especially because it's fulfilling through its stores, walmart same thing when you use the stores and fulfill, it's a cheaper way of getting the products to the customers. so a lot of questions that surround this. i think this is probably an issue of are the department stores worth anything?

that's probably the question they're asking at this point. >> omni channel works for some but maybe not all. we have a lot more coming up on the show when we return, taking stocks of the big banks, a mixed picture after the earning reports. we'll dig into the financials and what to expect from goldman sachs' report later this morning. and an interview with thomas barkin, a conversation you do not want to miss "squawk box" coming right back after this if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech. for insights on when to buy and sell. and proactive alerts on market events. that's decision tech. only from fidelity. that's decision tech. gang, we need our paranormal services to be more versatile. i know a group who can help us. not those new age shamans again. i'm talking world-class business experts.

data geeks, strategists, tax advisors, the works. what about technologists? 40,000 strong, baby. we'll be able to hit our projections both fiscal and astral. this company sounds great. what do you think, agnes? looks like it's unanimous.

it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat.

xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat.

xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. welcome back to squawk this morning. want to check the banking sector after what's been a heavy week of earnings. we still have goldman sachs coming up, but stephanie link is here, cnbc contributor ken leon, director and analyst of research at cfra. good morning to both of you. stephanie, we've heard from basically everybody, i'm trying to think -- we still have goldman to go. but it's been pretty good across the board. >> it's been very good across the board. and the themes are strong investment banking, strong equity trading even thick, even though it's down year over year it's up from 2019 levels, m&a is awfully strong the efficiency ratios have come down, which is encouraging, so

costs are coming in. i think the financial strength if you look at the common equity tier number one those numbers are in the double digits which is really great. i think this sets up for going forward, operating leverage for the group. we saw it with bank of america, with morgan stanley, we'll see it with the others over time, especially if rates go higher. >> ken, one of the issues is we've seen the stocks move already, so the question is how much more do they have to move >> so the banks put in a strong quarter. it's a great based period so now investors have to extrapolate into 2022, what is the trajectory for loan growth, rates and the magnitude of rates and then the capital markets and putting them all together, it's now a question really of getting more umph in terms of performance. but you know what, andrew, when we look year over year, straight

consensus has revenue and earnings down next year. so i think what we might hear from david solemn today we heard it from james coben the other day, we're giving you everything we can on earnings now let's get a higher multiple. many of the banks are trading in in the low teens, stephanie is a value investor, you have great companies like schwab with 21 times earnings and morgan stanley, they're going to pitch for a higher multiple because they're doing everything right in terms of execution and earning. >> steph, should they get the higher multiple? >> yes, they should. and certain companies should get even a higher multiple so like bank of america, that was a flawless quarter so can they do that a couple of quarters in arow if they can, they will get a

higher multiple. the problem is it's uneven morgan stanley should get a higher multiple because they have been executing four quarters now now we're getting used to them actually delivering. should wells fargo, not so much. they don't need a higher multiple they need to make progress in the restructuring. citi group same thing. those are the two cheapest names, wells and citi cheapest for a reason but there are opportunities to make improvements. they need to deliver the other names, if we can see consistency, you can see a higher multiple. and again operating leverage, earning should move higher as costs come down and then the top line can go up. >> on the value play, steph. i know you like wells fargo. do you like citi >> i do like citi. i don't think yesterday was really great for either of them, right. but i don't think that -- i -- i didn't think that wells should be down as much as it was,

because it was just in line and they're making progress. it's a slog, andrew, right citi, it's .8 times book they're giving you a good yield. i thought the quarter was kind of mixed, they did well on investment banking not as good as morgan stanley, but i do think they have opportunities in the interest income as well as loan growth over time. that is a restructuring story, too. just a little bit on the early side >> and then, ken, finally we'll hear from goldman sachs in just a little bit, but you look in the past six months stocks up over 15%, year over year up close to 50% >> stay the course what's different here is that goldman has put in continued quarters of outperformance and that's always the wary of investors, you have a choppy quarter, then a weak quarter and that gets back to the multiple conversation i think the capital markets gives you plenty of runway well

into 2022. one last point about the banks this hasn't come up on the media, there's no distress industries, and as you get into this energy and inflationary narrative, the banks aren't lending to fossil fuel that perhaps creates a supply issue for fracking out in texas. hasn't been told, but again banks are worried about esg and their reputation and that could be a problem this winter. >> is that an opportunity for them to lend by the way, if they're not lending, i mean, nobody is lending or somebody else is lending? >> it's a good question. it's the small mid-size oil companies are not getting funded so also the pressure from investors to return capital and not add to production, but banks really don't want to be, you know -- it's almost like office real estate. do you really want to be there

and the answer is probably the spotlight on terms of their lending book they want to be with what the new environment is, which is clean energy that creates a problem >> ken, stephanie, great to see you guys have a great weekend >> you too >> thanks. becky? when we come back, an fda panel unanimously backing moderna's vaccine booster shots. that panel expected to make a decision on j&j boosters today we'll talk to dr. kavita patel but first, frank holland looks at some of the high growth businesses in if canada. >> three years after legalization in canada, the business of cannabis is growing in many more ways than one coming up we'll look at the companies, the research and development and how consumers feel about good old fashioned weed with all the new cannabis products on the market what's going on? where's regina?

hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

trading isn't just a hobby. it's your future. so you don't lose sight of the big picture, even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim trading™ is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform full of customizable tools. dedicated trade desk pros and a passionate trader community sharing strategies right on the platform.

because we take trading as seriously as you do. thinkorswim trading™ from td ameritrade. at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner.

welcome back, everybody. canada legalized cannabis three years ago, and it remains the biggest fully legal cannabis market in the world. but the canadian companies that trade here in the united states have struggled frank holland joins us from toronto with more on the story frank, good morning. >> reporter: good morning to you, becky right now tillray is the only top five cannabis companies in in the green for 2021 as the companies continue to adjust to the increasingly recreational nature of this market. 95% of all sales in canada are made in retail stories like this location here in toronto up north here in canada, cannabis flower, aka pot, aka weed, and prerolled joints filled with pot and weed

dominate the market as compared to drinkables, edibles, and vapes. it's been a real challenge for the canadian companies but they see the trends changing day by day. >> new consumers coming into the space come in through drinks and edibles and possible vapes so as those new consumers come in instead of it being a small percent of their consumption it's likely to be a majority of their consumption. >> canadian stocks have seen the impact, their shares are negative shares are starting to surge at the start of 2021 over pe rans over potential u.s. federal legalization but it remains unclear even with chuck schumer pushing for reform canadian producers cannot sell in the u.s., only u.s. producers can at the state level and it's a patch work of laws

california a market that rivals canada, also billion dollar markets in new york, new jersey and connecticut. only four states do not allow any. to prime themselves for the lucrative market in 2022, the top five stocks have options to acquire u.s. companies, that provide direct selling cannabis if federal legalization happens. the question remains here is the if before it was seen as a when. right now you can see the canadian stocks are up this morning ahead of the three-year anniversary on sunday. back to you. >> when you talk to the companies, what do they say their biggest frustration is if anything. >> i think it's covid like it has been for many businesses their stores were shutdown and they weren't allowed to have customers inside 95% of sales were recreational so the store experience is

crucial to building brand, brand awareness and customer loyalty. >> do you get a different vibe there than here in the united states because it's nationalized or pretty much the same thing? >> reporter: very different vibe, becky. you can look around, i'll ask my photographer to show around. you look here, this looks like an apple store, maybe a ban ban republic very different than the u.s. here you see earth tones you don't see that in the u.s. it's a different experience. they also have bud tenders, they guide you through your journey to pick out what is good for you. it's like a sommelier almost the bud tender was telling me about this cannabis, for example, with the different colors, the different strains, things to help you sleep, give you energy even suggested one for joe but

joe is off today. >> let me guess, a calming one >> reporter: you know what, i don't want to put words in his mouth. he said you need to give joe this i just can't bring it back over the border. >> don't get caught with that. was that a bean bag over your shoulder are you allowed to sit there and smoke in there >> reporter: no, you definitely cannot smoke in here but it is a bean bag this is like an apple store type of experience it's a pink bean bag and a yellow bean bag. the idea is to come in, feel comfortable, talk, get educated, sniff some of the cannabis if you want to. some of the containers are sealed but they have a cork you can sniff them it's all about an immersive experience >> thank you for the education this morning good to see you. >> reporter: thank you, becky. good to see you as always. >> take care. it's like the genius bar at apple except -- >> except for different products

yeah >> but they don't sell doritos or any other kind of -- >> not that we know of there's a taco bell next door. >> there should be you would think there would be a partnership at this point. it's a common pandemic predicament. what we're going to talk about on the way back. people who worked from home from a different state during the pandemic, now sorting out state tax bills. hi t b frank has new numbers bendheig tax fight that's next.

good morning, everybody. happy friday and welcome back. after the gains we saw in the market yesterday with the dow up by 1.57% and the nasdaq and s&p each up over 1.7% looking at gains again this morning dow up by 157 points dated the nasdaq indicated up by 57. for high income earners today is the real tax day since that's when extensions are due and many haven't worked in their previous tax state for more than one and a half years robert frank joins us with a

look at new data that shows how many high earners are using location apps to show they no longer owe tax in new york, new jersey and other high tax states the fight is on. >> it is on. many taxpayers who have not commuted to work are now trying to change their tax residency. look at location apps they track your movements for tax purposes they have seen business double since last year. the main patterns are northeast taxpayers to calflorida and cala moving to texas or nevada. but the so-called 183 day rule does not exempt you from taxes and new jersey and new york are cracking down already flooding with audit letters there's two categories here, one is nonstate residents who used to commute

if your office was in new york city you still have to pay new york taxes some states may add their own income taxes so you're paying twice. state residents trying to change their tax residency say from new york to florida they have to prove a new domicile, that means severing all your ties with your former state, selling your house or apartment, moving your dog, dentist, apartment, charity, if you try to skip out for a couple of years and then return, you will likely also get caught. new york has up to three years just to inform you of the audit. so that's 2024 so if you try to leave for tax year 2020 or '21 and then come back, they could come to you in 2024 and say, see, you didn't really move. you still owe the state taxes. guys >> robert, as you know, i'm rooting for the home team, which is new york in this instance but my question to you actually is a conversation we have on this show, becky and i often

talk about it, how the irs doesn't have enough money oftentimes to conduct these audits on the federal level. do the states? >> well, when i asked new york state tax authority or talked to new jersey, connecticut and california, they have increased their budgets slightly they're a little less transparent about how many auditors they have they say they are training people a lot of this is automated so if you change your tax residency and you make six figures or more, you automatically almost get an audit letter from the state tax authorities. now whether they have the man power to follow-up, we'll see in the next year or two. >> this seems insane it's like escape from new york i don't get it is this all because of covid that they're being this harsh and strict with things saying if you leave you can't come back for two or three years that's ridiculous. what about people who legitimately move out and come

back >> they're saying if if you move for tax reasons, that has to be a permanent move. >> what if you didn't move for tax reasons i moved because it was covid and got out for a while but now i'd like to come back >> they will say to you, you didn't permanently move out of new york state you moved to florida, and therefore, you continued to be a tax resident it seems unfair -- >> the worst of the bounty collectors i have ever heard, ridiculous. >> that's the rule it seems crazy >> you're not here but we're going to charge you. because you moved somewhere else you're going to get charged in that state, too. that's fair. >> that's right. why it came to the supreme court with new hampshire versus massachusetts. the supreme court basically refused to overturn the current rules as it relates to tax authorities of both states massachusetts does the same thing to people who used to work there, haven't been in the state for a year and a half but are still paying taxes as if they work there. >> count me among that group

i've never lived in new york and they still took taxes from me even when i didn't step foot in new york from march of 2020 through that year. still took taxes from me that's ridiculous among ridiculous in my situation it's different but for people who picked up and moved, left the state, didn't come back. >> think about it, becky let's say on the flip side, say you sold a business or decided to sell $100 million in stocks or a million dollars in stocks and you moved to florida for one year while you sell that, avoid the capital gains in new york state, which are taxed as ordinary income. you sold it, took that tax year in florida and move back that's the thing they want to avoid -- >> what about average people -- i get it are they going to focus on the people that have $100 million stock sales, that makes sense to me. >> what's triggering this is people who are of -- considered wealthy, $100 million obviously

but we'relooking at probably lower numbers than that, but what's triggering most of the audits are the most affluent people in the state and the country. that's how this is working. >> going after those people, okay, i get it, if it's a tax dodge but there have to be people with real concerns, real issues if that happens and you come back a year or two later you would think new york would welcome them with open arms. welcome back if you didn't have strange stock sales or anything that was a huge benefit along the way, are they going to go after them too? >> they'll say welcome back, and you still owe us a year or two years of taxes and penalties welcome back. >> good way to make sure people don't want to come back. >> it's crazy, i agree robert frank, i think we're all going to agree to disagree this morning >> i get it for the high income

individuals if it looks like you were going and doing things to avoid the taxes on it. that makes sense but you moved your kids, found a new place to live, sold your house, give them a break. >> the truth is, most of the people, to be honest with you, that have left new york on a pure numbers basis but also looking at the data, were moving to florida and texas, again they're looking at the states of why they're moving is it a tax dodge and the like and the other question is, if you're a state that relies on revenue, people who built their business in new york, built their business in new jersey and then as robert just said, they leave, lose the tax benefit and the revenue that comes in, it's an unfair system. >> it's an unfair system to be taxed if you ever lived here we'll follow you the rest of your days and you'll keep paying us >> that's not what they're doing. >> they'll follow you for years and we might not tell you for three years we're coming after

you. it's an overreach. i understand wanting to catch people who are tax avoiders. i get that i'm not a fan of that either however, there are legitimate reasons people move. >> that's why there's an audit >> i feel very nervous going before them. >> it's legitimate. >> every audit i pay everything they say because you can't fight the government, you can't fight the irs. pay what they say you owe. otherwise you're caught up forever. >> i'm sure you're on the more popular side of this one this morning. when we come back an fda panel recommending the moderna vaccine boosters how soon the third shots could be approved and what comes next for j&j boosters. chndedd later our interview with rimo f press thomas barkin "squawk box" will be right back.

whadda you guys doing out here? there's a creepy man in a white mask. run, run! michael myers has haunted this town for forty years. if you track michael's victims, it's a straight line home. he's coming for me. we're coming for him. welcome back, everybody. an fda advisory panel unanimously recommending boosters of moderna's covid vaccine to people ages 65 and older. also, other vulnerable americans who might need the booster a final decision could come in days that panel will be meeting today to talk about j&j's vaccine boosters and joining us now with more on all of this is dr. kavita patel, former white house health policy director and also an msnbc and

nbc contributor. for those of us who follow this closely, it's getting confusing about who should get a booster, when and which booster they should pick up what would you tell people who are trying to sort through it all? >> it's confusing not just for people, it's confusing i think for the world to understand what the united states is doing so there's incredibly compelling evidence presented by israel kind of updating its information from a month ago that, in my mind, clearly demonstrates the need for boosters in all ages. but having said that, the advisory committee closely mirrored the discussion we saw a month ago, which is why moderna's boosters are also limited over the age of 65 if you received pfizer or moderna, get a booster shot soon. pfizer is available today. moderna should be available next week it's a reduced dose that's why i'm saying next week you can't go out and get a third dose today for j&j recipients we're left in

a hangover here. we'll have some information today but i have a gut feeling it's going to be unsettling based on the way the advisory committee set up their agenda today. for anybody under 65 if you received pfizer or moderna, between 18 and 64, you have chronic conditions, my best advice, have a conversation with your clinician, your personal primary care physician or even if it's somebody on a telehealth visit you can talk through whether you qualify for a booster based on your conditions and then basically, if you aren't in that or you aren't in an occupation like mine, a health care worker where you're at higher risk, grocery store, law enforcement, or you live in a setting where you might be at higher risk, nursing homes, et cetera, that means that you're not eligible so for the majority of americans, under the age of 65, we are still waiting for more evidence, that was very clear yesterday, for more evidence that anybody can just go and get boosters distinct from what other countries are doing, such as the

uk, germany, israel, et cetera >> what's the new data from israel, new data from a month ago that's more compelling that everybody should get a booster what is that >> israel has been fairly aggressive, they've been also talking about fourth shots, in fact, but this was data presented that summarizes their third shot booster strategy, they primarily used pfizer so it's the same exact dosing as shots one and two, administered to everybody over the age of 12. they presented data for people over the age of 16 because they've had millions who received the booster doses in that population, 16 and above looking at everything from safety and also looking at reducing not just mild and moderate and severe infections but reducing symptoms and in their kind of statement as well as presentation of data tables, becky, pretty compelling evidence that their third shots led to this decrease in delta when they started their booster program they were 99% surge of

delta infections by the end of this kind of rollout, which they recently completed and now have data to support, they almost suppressed the activity by two-thirds so could that all be the vaccine? no but the majority of that is driven by booster shots and demonstrating safety. >> why isn't that more persuasive with the fda panel? >> i think that -- so the fda panel yesterday brought up a couple of points number one what really is the goal of widespread vaccination campaigns? it's to keep people out of the hospital, keep people from dying. there's a debate about the merits for younger, healthy people under the age of 50an even becky to receive a booster shot, to prevent what we would call symptomatic covid, that's a critical bifurcation in the debate around this the second point they brought up is there's still not enough time that has gone by to lock at safety signals such as inflammation of the heart,

myocarditis because those can present several weeks after a booster is administered. in the united states we're not just administering pfizer across the country we have moderna, j&j so we can't necessarily adapt one country's one vaccine recommendation to the rest of what we're doing in the united states this is going to be a point, because i've said it, other physicians have said it, we think all americans will need a booster at some point. the question is when >> where do you land on the issue. i was talking about this israel data yesterday on the broadcast because it does reflect that you can try to put this out and do it successfully if you're willing to take the approach that the goal is effectively to avoid anybody getting it and if you can avoid them getting it, you can avoid them spreading it and it changes the die ynamic o the whole thing but there are people trying to avoid hospitalization or death, take

thera therapeutics, thoo it'll cost you $500 for the therapeutics, $50 for the vaccine. so as people think about the health issues but also the behavioral science issues, where do you land as a doctor? >> i land on the side of vaccine as a prevention and benefits far outweighing the risks. not just the israeli data but even in the real world evidence we're seeing we know that millions of americans are getting the third shots, even if they're not in the eligibility cat go cat goerryes, we're seeing steep declines as people get booster shots. so i fall into the camp of everyone is going to need a booster shot and interestingly enough, the information from the fda advisory committee yesterday pointed to the information to that the booster shot can help with that long-term memory cell

immunity that we put valid importance to. this isn't just for the antibodies but there could be a booster effect to help your memory as well so i fall into the camp of everyone needs one at some point. >> dr. patel, thank you. appreciate it very much. coming up when we return at&t reported quarterly results next week but the stock has been sinking the past six months. 'ldiusth turn it around? wel scs atopic right after this ♪ i'm a reporter for the new york times. if you just hold it like this. yeah. ♪ i love finding out things that other people don't want me to know. mm-hmm. [beep] i just wanted to say... ♪ find yourself in these situations

and see who you are. and that's just part of the bargain. ♪

. welcome back to "squawk box," at&t reported quarterly results next week. they faced problems this week with management and branding the stock has decreased over 41%

while the dividend yield is over 8%, joining us to discuss what is driving this trend is a partners an a list and sarah fisher, axios media reporter good morning to both of you. walt, the question is, can they turn this around the i think there was a view that after this warner media deal there was an opportunity to do so, but still a lot of wood to chop. >> you've had years andyears o mna activity in an attempt to basically just support the dividend and that's been the shareholder that they have been catering to for you know a decade plus. the new ceo john stanke made the decision it's not beholden anywhere they basically shed everything and they're converting into a connectivity company as opposed to being something larger. the telecom companies were saying google and amson were a competitor and verizon paid

media skwilgsacquisitions none of those panned out >> i want to ask you, you put at&t up against a verizon or up against what now t-mobile sprint combine candidate. you say to yourself, do they have a full opportunity to do it what are they going to have to do in terms of investing and band width to get there? >> they look similar t-mobile under john ledger, he changed the company and changed the industry, frankly. now you look at t-mobile post-sprint, the revenue growths look similar, in fact, given at&t has effectively stolen dish away from t-mobile work had a spat, t-mobile or at&t has the opportunity to outgrow t-mobile in terms of service revenue growth they certainly have a good opportunity, the same with verizon, at&t shed all the bad stuff.

they're a connectivity company they're growing at the same growth rate. they're spending now they've cut the dividend less of their free cash flow on dividends than verizon, is why should they trade higher than verizon is on a dividend >> i got to get to sarah, to answer your question, why? >> there is no reason in this legacy view, the management team is bad and the quality of free cash flow is less or the growth rate is lower because verizon has done a great job historically in, investing in lte. this is a few era, a 5g era. verizon, themselves, made the mistakes, they had to make up that they spent $55 in auction. there is mistakes all around they need to give at&t's management team a little leeway here to see this new strategy and whether they can deliver on this growth equal if fought better than their peers, then

they shouldn't be trading at a discount >> do they deserve the leeway, a honeymoon of sorts in this new world? >> a little bit f. you look at the fundamental also, we were talking about this last quarter, their postpaid wireless prescriptions were up at a high, the business that they're core in is actually doing okay. the problem, is one, i think a lot of people to walt's point are now looking at this stock thinking the fundamental business, wireless mobility are strong and long-term they're looking at the stock and freeblgd out the dividend is being cut. there is a sfla lot of uncertaiy it's on a hold in fstagnant mod. now that verizon has shed its media assets, they're going to be doubling down, also t-mobile on bike up more spectrum of course, at&t is highly

levered. it will be hard for them to be as competitive so you will see this stock continue to go on a downward decline not because they don't see a shot to see thousand they boost in the next two quarters, there is so much uncertainty before that dividend cut in 23, 2. >> it's a fascinating one to see what happens next. thank you. when we come back, bitcoin hitting a six-month high after reports say the sec doesn't look like it's going to block etf from beginning next week we got the details next. later, don't miss our exclusive interview with richmond fedom t barkin. "squawk box" will be right back.

so to accelerate growth, should all our it move to the cloud? well, it isn't right for everything. the cloud would give us more flexibility, but we lose control. should we stay, should we go? ♪ ♪ ♪ darling you got to let me know, ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go? ♪ we have tons of data at the edge, but we have to act on it in real time. ♪ if i go there will be trouble ♪ and we need business insights across all our data silos, but how? ♪ so come on and let me know, ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i ♪ wait, we can stay and go. hpe greenlake is the platform that brings the cloud to us. and it'll accelerate our... our digital transformation? absolutely. ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪ ♪ ♪

rnlthsz an earnings rally, stoxz coming up, their best day, the dow at triple digits and bitcoin booming. the crypto climbing to its highest level in six months, boom berg saying it is to overcome a hurdle. bill cassidy will join us live the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

welcome back to "squawk." welcome back to "squawk box. i'm andrew rosssorkin along with becky quick joe concern isn't off. taking a look at two-and-a-half hours before the mark is set to open up. the fax is up 44 points. s&p 500 looking to open about 16 points higher. we have a couple earnings reports coming today, including goldman sachs. right now, the price of bitcoin touching a six-month high, coming after bloomberg, the sec will allow the first u.s. bitcoin futures etf to begin trading next week. bitcoin has traded above $60,000 and is approaching april's record high of more than $63,000. meantime, an fda panel recommending a booster dose of

moderna's covid-19 vaccine and high rick individual, the full fda is expected to make a revision goldman sachs set to report the quarterly numbers, earnings from banks and wall street firms have been upping so far, we heard from morgan stanley, citigroup, bank of america beating a wall street forecast yesterday. goldman's earnings expected to rise 12.6% over a year ago some we will keep our eyes on those numbers and bring them to you when we get them. >> yes, we will. let's go to dom chu. he has some of the pre-market movers happy friday. >> tgif to you and andrew as well it is friday, we will look at what has happened over the course of this last week, with earnings season getting into full steam here. banks have been a huge focus here the nasdaq still remains that one index traders and investors are keying on. it has been one of the more volatile parts of the market and those that move up the most or down the most when that

volatility comes 14,823 is where we closed yesterday. the level that some traders are watching is 14,870 that is the 50-day average price of the nasdaq on a rolling basis. that's a level technical pattern wise that some traders want to see happen, maybe if they got breaches there, there is more upside potential there by the way, the s&p 500 closed at its respective level. a little of a waiting try i to see where the next trend is going to lie here for the nasdaq by the way, we're down roughly 4% from the record highs we've seen, the nasdaq in play, also from a sector perspective, would you believe it real estate is the top forming sector last week in the s&p 500. you look at that sector versus materials, those two are the two best performers in the s&p meanwhile, communication services down a half of 1% on the week facebook and social media a big

part of that story, weakness there we'll watch that some of the stocks that have made the biggest moves over the last week have been story driven there is sa lot more focus on solar stocks, alternative energy becomes more attractive and phase energy is the best solar company on a one-week basis, also, gm resorts has beenbeate up of late advance microdevices up 7% the semi conductor trade certainly, becky, very big there. a lot of folks tend to look at that semi conductor industry as a possible leading indicator of where technology goes so those three stocks, in particular, have been a focus for traders over the course of the week, becky. >> let's go back to the real estate sector. we had an interesting conversation with barry stern this week, where he talked about real estate being the place to be you've seen so much inflation. there are a lot of things that make him nervous about different

places in the stockmarket and then you got real estate he says, that's a great place to be all of that inflation, lumber, concrete, the higher costs will cut back on building, labor cost, all of those things, so less building means less competition with the existing real estate that's there, he made that point a few days ago you can see the sector picked up from that time. >> absolutely. there is this mode of thinking, right, in many until circles and advisers, the most fixed of fixed assets in this woerld is real estate. when you have this narrative that continues to gather steam, there are arlott of focus on things like hard assets, real asset itself, beneficiary. it's interesting when you talk about that real estate discussion, especially when it comes to real estate investment trusts in the ans&p 500.

we seen a general kind of mini trend higher in interest rates that doesn't seem to have taken the steam away from that real estate dividend story. so maybe i guess what i'm trying to say is this idea that inflation to your point here and to barry stern's point, if inflation is going to be a less than transitory part of the story, the hard asset, might outweigh perhaps some of the dividend concerns that might be there in case interest rates from a risk-free perspective, treasury perspective start to go higher. >> that point varies people listen to barry, he does know of what he speaks. >> he certainly does >> tom, thank you, great to see you. meantime, take a look at this, the shares of virgin galactic delaying the beginning of the tourism service to the fourth quarter of 2022 this month the company will begin work refurbishing and trying to improve the spacecraft

i can't believe you call it an acre, but it is, the process is expected to last eight-to-ten months it was scheduled after the next test flight. they found an issue and certain joints that require physical inspection when we come back, a lot more on "squawk. one of the creators of the bipartisan infrastructure bill senior bill cassidy will talk to us about the impasse and the deadline what's going on behind the scene. before we head to break, take a quick check on the markets. we are in the green across the board. bitcoin is soaring this morning. all that and more when "squawk" returns. returns. >> new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do.

when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. you could be working with someone outside your company and wait for back d forth e-mail, or a call to be rescheduled for the third time. orrr... you could use slack. and work faster with everyone you work with, together in one place. slack. where the future works.

and there you have it- woah. together in one place. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet, i get that too and mine has 5g included. that's cool, but ours save us serious clam-aroonies. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself.

, welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. in washington news this morning, axios is reporting the white house sees a capitol hill deal on president biden's spending plan soon. joining us to talk about it is republican senator cassidy he wrote an op-ed titled we must pass the infrastructure bill as somebody who agreed to sign off on the bill who went against most of his own party to do that are you frustrated at this point? >> incredibly frustrated by the way, this is a freight bill for all americans, whatever your political party

it does seem like politics are trumping the needs of the american people. so if we can pass this, it's going to be great for our country, create a lot of jobs. by the way to make the distinction this is not the reconciliation bill 3.5 trillion this is the money for infrastructure. >> this is the 1.5 trillion that has bipartisan support in the senate questions about what happens next, it's kind of gotten died up with the other part of the spending bill the biden administration has put forth what happens is your about to stand with us you have been very outspoken about this you think it's important for your st. of louisiana in the wake of the hurricane. you think it's important in the country, too, is there a loss of momentum in the senators that signed off on this, are they having second thoughts about their support? >> there is no second thoughts it is real lie good policy if you poll the american people and they understand this is not the reconciliation bill, this is about universal access to high

speed internet or more money for roads and bridges, they love this bill. it's all if politics right now, in house republicans decided to support this bill, they would take away the leverage of the progressive caucus >> that's interesting. >> because they decided not to, the progressives have incredible amount of leverage they're the ones trying to force linkage with the reconciliation bill. >> thank you for somebody calling out both sides are you calling out your own party here saying they could change this, too you are right, politics gets in the way. these are both parties playing politics right now. >> it is and politics are frustrating yesterday, i was down in a portion of louisiana hit by hurricane ida. there is money in this bill for coastal restoration that would keep these terrible storms from hitting. we can build resilience. when the president came to new orleans, i spoke to him about the need for hardening the grid, because there was so much power outage the president said, yes,

wouldn't it be great if we can prevent western forest fires as well by strengthen the grid there? so it's not just my home state of louisiana can i go around every region of the country, whether it's republican or democrat and tell you how this bill is going to benefit and we republicans have the power to take control of this if house republicans decide to vote for it, taking leverage away from the progressive wing, we can pass the bill. >> so why isn't that argument picking up steam in the house with the house republicans >> yeah, so far, i can't speak for their internal deliberations. i can see what's kind of apparent by the way, progressive knows this, too. this is -- it's not just my idea but progressives will also recognize that their leverage comes from the necessity of their votes to pass it and they are using that leverage we republicans, we can take it back we decide to line up and supportist that takes leverage away from the far left.

>> senator cassidy, this is a situation where the president has now come out and said, look, the infrastructure bill is not going to get passed or brought to the floor on the house until after you hear from the $3.5 trillion bill whatever that becomes, but the human infrastructure side of things he wants to see happening you think he is only saying that because the progressives are holding his feet to the fire >> again, i won't say motives. kirsten cinema says she will not vote for the bill until there is a vote for the infrastructure bill. >> in the house. >> now in this internal dynamic, senator sinema has more leverage than president biden the way it's lined up is we were given a commitment there will be a vote on infrastructure before the reconciliation bill. we're asking people to keep their word. >> why don't we talk more about what this means? it's not just trouble that comes from the weather or disasters, natural disasters that happen

here i think if you look at the supply cane issues that our nation is facing right now, there is no clearer picture that's painted of the problems with our infrastructure at this point. there is massive need for that it's a need we have been ignoring for a long time. >> there is $17 billion in reports. when we look another the holdups in our ports contributing to the supply chain difficulties and inflation rate, there is 17 billion to begin to rectify that there is also 65 billion for freight rail and passenger rail, to the extent that the addressing it. i've got two bridges in louisiana on i-10 both overlake charles and the mississippi river in baton rouge that contribute to slowed trucking traffic across the continent there is $110 billion for roads and bridges in this package and these two bridges have been targeted by my state to be

prepared i can go to my state to find similar projectsin this infrastructure bill. this is a win for the american people and everybody should step up and support it. >> this is something that american business has asked for, has lobbied for and has kind of begged for the building of the infrastructure of the country. it's something the chamber of commerce has gotten behind why do you think kevin mccarthy and others in the republican party aren't willing to step in? is this a case nobody wants to cooperate with the other side in washington >> they're not getting their internal -- they're not being in the internal deliberations, i hesitate but, clearly, the american people are receiving it that way. the american people are perceiveing that their needs are being put behind politics and they actually want these jobs. by the waive, it's estimated off the top of my head 2 million jobs not for folks that make their living by zoom folks who do construction, manufacturing, service industry

and produce oil and gas, help our refineries get the gasoline and diesel for tractors and trucks those are the people that will benefit. one more thing to say, wharton school of business says that over 30 years in a 30-year analysis, because it takes time to build infrastructure and there is a payoff over decade that this will increase gdp and decrease the debt because of increased economic activity. this is something republicans should support >> what are your thoughts just in terms of the odds of this getting passed with the if you deadline being october 31st. that's a couple weeks from now. >> if i knew that, i would be at the track laying down my bet on the other hand at some point you got to trust that good policy is good politics and that the american people want something done i was at a town hall chamber of examiners meeting in alexander,

louisiana. a fellow from a rural parish, a good parish, but the population is declining, talking about how his daughters wanted to move back to boils parish but they wanted high speed internet he saw this bill as an avenue to get that infrastructure. he put it very multi-layered he said broadband internet, if you build it, they will come he could have been talking about his daughters, but he certainly could have been talking about a distribution site and the jobs that come with that consistent bulgs site and the sort of virtuous cycle that leaves economic expansion for areas left behind. good policy is good politics if you represent an area under served by high speed internet, this bill should be for you. >> senator cassidy, i imagine the bill is popular back in your home state are you supporting it, the bipartisan aspect of it. does that make you unpopular in walk what do you hear from your

colleagues >> you know, when i lay my head down at night, i don't think about my popularity or unpopularity in washington i think about whether or not i am doing something to represent my state and the people of the united states. this bill makes our economy stronger it positions us to compete globally, economically better. around it brings those folks who have been left behind by the new economy into the new economy getting them economic hope for themselvess, their children, their grandchildren. now i go to sleep and sleep soundly if i know i am doing that >> i hope people in washington are listening to you thank you, for cassidy. >> thank you coming up, when we return, could the labor crimes last for years? even decades to come in that's the question details in the new report and the numbers dare i say are shocking later, don't miss our exclusive interview. you do not want to miss this with richmond fed president thomas barkin.

"squawk box" returns after this. hey, coach prime... i think you've got what it takes to wear the aflacket. style, charisma, and a smile, that's a 21 out of 10! [aflac!] you know, aflac can help keep unexpected healthcare costs from ruining someone's finances. check out this coverage... you still got it coach, you still got it! i never lost it! yeah! [aflac!] you see that coverage? with that wingspan i see why you got more rings than a cell phone. there's always room for one more. yeah! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com

jerry is here! j! mate, how are ya!? it's so good to see you. good to see all of you, yeah! why is jerry so... popular? it's been like this ever since we started using workday. what do you mean? it makes it easier to develop great relationships with our suppliers. now everyone, everywhere loves jerry. they sure do. they do. they really do. mmhmm. workday. finance, hr, planning and spend management for a changing world.

. i didn't know, becky, did you know that? >> no, i did not all i think with kibble is kibbles and bits, kibbles and bits. >> you learn something new every day. >> thank mike greco for that, he comes up with that question every day. >> meantime let's talk labor, labor shortage is real it may be over soon and may worsen in years to come according to a few report from mc kate rogers is here with more

and some astonishing numbers, kate. >> hey, andrew, good morning the report is called the demographic drought. it says the pandemic exacerbated a worker shortage and a sansdemic is under way 1 million boomers are projected to have been pushed into retirement the birth rates saw the biggest drop in 2020 next up, replacing boomers there aren't enough millennial's and gen x workers to fill the boomers place. they will inherit 68 trillion and it will give them freedom about decisions of work they want to do and don't want to do. 2.4 million left, but prime-age working men have been exiting

for decade they show millions alone, due to the epidemic others are living with parents and tend to prefer part-time work companies need to be thinking of wages and flexibility and recruitment in order to keep workers on board. >> what we have to do is change our messaging versus how much a job pays versus how valuable the job is, what you are doing that's meaningful. i feel that maybe there is an opportunity to tell people about the value of the work they're doing versus just saying i can give you another dollar more than this job over there >> now, this is already starting to crop up on earnings calls, particularly in the service sect oar this quarter andrew. >> so how are they describing this an these calls? >> they're calling it a sansdemic. lack of people, lack of workers in the years to come. >> do we think, though, employees will quote/unquote

value their job based less on the pay check? this goes to sort of the larger issue, maybe it's generational about the value of the work? >> andrew, i think that's a great point and i think we've all undergone a great reassessment we have been talking about it what the work looks like, money matters, companies, of course, need to be thinking of competitive wages. that's why you see them go up across the board also people are thinking of the type of work they do what their day-to-day looks like, how fulfilling that is particularly, the millennial's expected to inherit all this money may have more flexible in choosing what they want to do day-to-day >> okay. kate, thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you >> fascinating fascinating. still to come, what's moving market this is morning after the sec's big rally? check out shares earnings in revenue beat estimates by a rise in alluminum

prices stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc cnbc nurse mariyam sabo knows a moment this pure... ...demands a lotion this pure. new gold bond pure moisture lotion. 24-hour hydration. no parabens, dyes, or fragrances. gold bond. champion your skin.

. welcome back to "squawk box" live from the fax markets set in

time's square. i want to talk markets and earnings the chairman and ceo and co-founder, as well as a cnbc contributor. good morning to you. the market has been on a bit of a tear yesterday can it looks like it will open similarly after what has been quite a rise out of earnings this quarter of course, the question is, is it going to continue and as we continue to talk about inflation, we are talking bitcoin moving higher this morning partially as a result of that futures etf are you in the buy anything and it's going to work right now or are you a little bit more reserved >> well, i don't think you should ever buy everything right, andrew? we know that yesterday was a real glass half full day we've had a few volatile days, tough days we had numbers out from both labor and inflation that were better than expected so buyers took the opportunity to rush in the earnings from the financial

sector are good, stronger than expected strong banking there ask a lot of advisory business doing really well, deals. so, yeah, i think that this can continue today it makes people feel better about the concerns that have been weighing on the market. >> but to the extent there are concerns and we will talk to somebody who is inside the fed in the next hour about inflation, about looking at energy prices, looking at food prices we can go through the numbers. >> sure. >> does that all still suggest to you, i mean, this goes back to the ray dalio competent that cash is trash, you have to have it in the market if that's the answer, where do have you it in the market? >> so the struggle is, of course, the demand is great. demand on the consumer, industrial, commercial, again inflation, tapering, covid, china. what we feel is that it's important to be invested where buys toward growth we like companies that can have

some inflationary hedge in them. we've had these rolling bear markets over the past year many sectors have come down 10-plus percent. it's given us opportunities despite being up fine% for the year and close to it's all-time high we like netflix, salesforce, cme group, because volatility. trullio, higher prices, american power, united healthcare is a name we really like. that was a good report yesterday. so there are opportunities out there where, you know, we see inflation hedges built in. >> do you like the traditional banks? i know you just mentioned your version of financials sounded to me a lot like american express and visa, which is a different version of financials then, a j.p. morgan, goldman sachs, we will be hearing earnings from very shortly >> exactly we also have charles schwab and

blackstone those are big positions for us we don't own any of the traditional banks. i think they're showing strength better-than-expected they're a little of the interest rate play as rates go up they go up and we can play that also with schwab but if goldman has good numbers today, which they probably will, you will see a rally they're a multiple stocks, as you know. >> do you like the retail or are supply chains issues of what they may or may not do to margin >> yeah. as to the only traditional retail we own if any sense is home depot cos costco, we own they are going to have tough quarters delivering on inventory, getting product in the stores amazon, biggest retailer is one we own so i think the challenge is to keep the pace going. that's a little bit of a stretch

we think in the near term, so we'd rather steer away from the main traditional retailers. >> how concerned are you, though, about increased costs for labor? obviously, you are seeing so many retailers and just companies across the board spending a lot more to deal with the supply chain, the bottlenecks, what does that do to margin over the next couple orders >> obviously, it compresses it and because we hear about labor and labor and labor costs, one way to hedge that is own more technology you know, technology is the place people go when they're having trouble fought finding labor, paying too much for labor tan they can afford, they have to find product solutions, more productivity that should help the tech stocks and even if this abates the inflation on the wage side, it's still over the long-term a positive for tech. >> i noticed with the exception of netflix, it doesn't seem you don't like consumer tech

you like b2b tech, if you will >> well, we own apple. we own plenty of apple the question i pick the names i like the best apple is the biggest consumer name in the world. being overweight apple means you own 7/8% in a portfolio. very few feel are overweight we are overweight google microsoft consumer and industry. so i'd say we all own chips. we don't own chips and we do own facebook, too. >> how concerned are you about china in relation to apple, for example? we just saw microsoft, obviously, get out of china with linkedin just yesterday. >> yeah. that was a big piece of news i think china is a concern china remains a concern, has been one usually the headlines are greater than the impact. look at evergrande, people are almost forgetting that name. we believe that we have to be careful to participate

but china needs the u.s. companies. we need china i don't think there is a question that china is going to suddenly say to apple, we're going to make it so difficult for to you compete here that you can't participate in our market, but you have to pay attention to it for sure. >> do you think that mean there is is no new entrance, if you are an american company to actually be in china at this point? >> well, there is limited entrance, that's for sure. we're at a real detente level environment where you know every day china makes a move and it's playing chess and we have to respond. so right this minute, i think that there is a stalemate in terms of activity, new activity in china i don't believe that's for good. i think that will change over time. >> finally, we haven't -- we were talking about it in the last hour, i'll ask you about it do you have a view on at&t this is a stock now at an 11-year low? >> oh, god, i think if you have

a lot of patience for people who bought gm, bought ford, you got that patience, you can buy at&t and wait i don't think that we would. it's too much of a moving target, too many businesses they're in and out of. i just don't -- i don't think it's an leadsable. but it's cheap and if you have money to wait, put it aside, go for it >> karen, always good to see you. >>. >> thank you you too, andrew. >> when we come back, about halfway through the trial of elizabeth holmes, about thernos. there are more questions about their lab director later, goldman sachs reporting shortly. we'lha tl vehe results and the market reaction. "squawk box" will be right back. >>

(vo) while you may not be closing on a business deal while taking your mother and daughter on a once-in-a-lifetime adventure — your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your dreams, and the way you care for those you love. so you can live your life. that's life well planned.

in 2016, i was working at the amazon warehouse when my brother passed away. and a couple of years later, my mother passed away. after taking care of them, i knew that i really wanted to become a nurse. amazon helped me with training and tuition. today, i'm a medical assistant and i'm studying to become a registered nurse. in filipino: you'll always be in my heart.

, welcome back to "squawk box. the trial of founder elizabeth holmes of theranos scott joins us with the latest on this ongoing saga. >> reporter: hi, andrew, we wrap up week six in what is supposed to be a 16-week trial as the government tries to prove when elizabeth holmes was promising

the change the world, billed as a steven jobs, was committing fraud. in 2014, she was coming into her own, touted her new blood testing technology that was supposed to revolutionize healthcare, the person running the lab was not a board certified lab technician but a dermatologist working part-time. his name is sen ill daewan he was the thunderstormer ther a nos ex-president and her ex-boyfriend he promised a minimal time commitment sunil dhawan he testified he had very little contact with holmes, herself her attorney says she wasn't involved in lab operations, all she did was run a business that failed and they say failure is not a crime.

this week we've heard from former executives at safeway and walgrens, both of which spent hundreds of millions of dollars hoping to have theranos in their stores those with doctors and patients many more are among her many victims as this trial continues, guys. >> so scott, you and i have sat if many courtrooms, sometimes together watching these cases in real time. is there a sense that you have at this point? i know it's almost unfair to pre-judge the outcome? but can you feel a sense of which way this is moveing? and is the evidence compelling or the defense is offering compelling >> well, the defense's roleat this point is to try and pick apart all of that evidence that the prosecution is offering. the prosecution isn't through their case so it's hard to tell exactly how it's going it's going to be interesting,

though, to see how the defense counters all of this they have given the hints in their opening statements six weeks ago talking about how as i said failure the not a crime and that really all elizabeth holmes was doing what's typical in silicon valley, touting this new technology, bringing in money and so on, but was not dishonest to investors and that's what the prosecution has to prove they have to prove she intended to commit fraud. that's a pretty high bar we'll see how it goes. we're at the halfway mark. >> of the evidence you have seen thus far, is there demonstrable evidence of what you would describe as intent, intent to lie, intent to defraud, intent to do something knowingly wrong? >> i think the jury has so-to-speak is still out on this, that's what the government again is trying to prove they're trying to show that she was very much involved with things, that she knew what was going on, that she and sonny

balwafi were together as the people running this company and she would have known now this testimony yesterday and today from the dermatologist, in some ways, runs counter to that, because he's testified that he had almost no contact with holmes until towards the end when the heat started coming in from regulators, but the idea is she is out there telling eb, telling investors, telling journalists and everybody else what a great and revolutionary company this is when she knows or should know that the company is not what she claims it to be and that by that point in 2014, 2015, it was pretty clear this technology was not working even though she said otherwise. >> to put a fine point on it, for example, i don't know if this evidence exists, was she out saying the clinician running her clinic or her lab was some you know had experience and a background that was different

tan the dermatologist that you are now seeing on the stand? >> we haven't seen anything to suggest that she has specifically talked about the lab director remember, the lab director before sunil dhawan was a man adam rosendorf on the stand six days under stiff cross examination. he was a cert fade board clinician who was somebody who had experience at this and he left about about 18 months after deciding that the company was more interested in raising mo inthan it was in caring for patients and accuracy in the labs but it's not like he or su sunil dhawan or somebody at the company elizabeth holmes in particular was trotting out as an example why this company was so great what holmes was talking about was the technology and the promise to test a tiny drop of

blood and run all these diagnostic tests on it, a promise that proved impossible to lead. >> our courtroom watcher on one of the most dramatic courtroom dramas of our time thank you, appreciate it >> this is one you can't take your eyesway way from. anyway, when we come back, a bit of a twitter war breaking out between aei research fellow and former white house council economic adviser's chair jason berman we will try to settle it here on "squawk box" after break the futures looking up by even more than we had earlier dow futures up 175 of course this comes at a gain of over 530 points yesterday the dow was up 1.5%. s&p and the nasdaq were up more, they were up by 1.7% the s&p up another 17 points nasdaq another 57 points we're getting quarterly results from goldman sachs those are expected in the next

hour the stock up ahead of those results you see up about 1.5% based on all the sontrgs earnings we got from banks yesterday. we'll be right back. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire so to accelerate growth, should all our it move to the cloud? well, it isn't right for everything. the cloud would give us more flexibility, but we lose control. should we stay, should we go? ♪ ♪ ♪ darling you got to let me know, ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go? ♪ we have tons of data at the edge, but we have to act on it in real time. ♪ if i go there will be trouble ♪ and we need business insights across all our data silos, but how? ♪ so come on and let me know, ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪

♪ should i stay or should i ♪ wait, we can stay and go. hpe greenlake is the platform that brings the cloud to us. and it'll accelerate our... our digital transformation? absolutely. ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪ ♪ ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪ jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat.

xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. according to professional government office, they received $370 billion of corporate tax revenue over the past year it's a record high and a 75% increase over last year showing not only a rebound in corporate profits but also the economy as

a whole, joining us to talk about what this means for corporate tax increases, former cea chairman professor berman and american institute senior fellow alex brill. i think it started when you say these strong numbers mean they will pivot from saying corporations should pay their fair share to what >> i think tame will tell. i think this fair share argument that corporate tax receipts are so low there is something that needs to be fixed. what we see from the numbers last year is that, in fact, corporate tax receipts are doing quite well as a share of gdp, nominal terms and a share of gdp. so how the democrats pivot to say we i'll need tax rin es kroos on operations, it must be they will say profits are too high, that businesses are doing

too well, therefore, we need to tax them more. >> jason, you didn't think that was a fair argument? >> oh, i have a lot of respect for alex like he started, becky, saying it's record, knoll nal dollars inflation. you hit record altar time. big picture, five years ago, the corporate tax rate was 35% you went to a company and said we're going to do a tax reform and get the rate down to 26.5% i think people, ceos, companies would have been pretty happy with that tax system you look at aei. other work they've done quantified the impact on economic growth. it's really tiny what is more important is how we use the money, do we use the money well, for example, investing in children. investing in pre school? that's a bigger impediment to economic growth in this country and whether our corporate rate is 21 or 26.5%

yeah, i would dulles agree with the implication that the rate doesn't matter i mean, obviously, when 26 is better than 35 the question at the moment is whether 26 is better than 21 i don't suggest that the magnitude of this is some enormous thing, the whole economy is going to turn upside down overnight we're better off with a statutory rate less neutral and allows less interventions from the tax code into the decisions in corporations across america jason's other point about what we do with the money, absolutely, it absolutely matters, we should use that money if we're raising revenues, we should use that money wisely. there is no question about that. there is no question you know that we should have you know young people who are more educated in the future than young people were in the past. those things are certainly true.

the question is, is, is this the right way to finance those investments if those investments are good investments so i don't know what the roi of those investments pamay be, butf they're positive, we want to finance it in the most efficient way so are there other programs we should be eliminating or curtailing or are there other ways to raise capital? i think we should raise a car tax instead of a corporate tags. >> let me ask you another question, shifting gears here, jason i will shift gears with you on this, people are watching inflation so closely, social security will give its biggest increase in cola 5.9% to deal with higher costs come along the way. you made a point that these are high class problems to have, inflation versus 10% unemployment that's fair, but it may not focus enough on how hard people are getting hit.

if your gas prices have gone up, the rent prices have gone up, zbroesry prices are going up that can hurt a wide portion of the population >> yeah, becky, you know, you can look at my competent over the last six months to understand what's going on in the economy, you need to keep two things in your head simultaneously one is inflation is high that inflation is a problem for families wages are not keeping up with that inflation a part of why we have that high inflation is because we did too much back in march and because the fed is being you know not serious enough you have to keep that in your head and you also have to keep in your head, people are buying more than before beam got checks much larger than the inflation that they're experiencing that our ports are processing record amounts of containers the issue is not that we're not able to get things through the

ports. it's that we can't get so much through the ports. so people are spending more than ever before. that's a good thing. the american professor proceeded faster than it has in europe that's a good thing. with that comes a lot of problems i think we can do a better job managing those problems while getting the upside than we have done big picture, i'd rather be in our situation than the situation in europe where there is less inflation and also less income and less spending. >> let's talk about what you just said, though, that that's pretty big point you make sighing that the fed hasn't done a good job of keeping track of this, you my they should be doing a lot more right now that's what larry summers has been saying. he thinks they're not paying attention to inflation, they're too woke, their wokeness is kind of driving things. >> i don't know exactly what "woke" means the fed has systematically misunderstood the economy over this entire year you look back five, six months

ago, it was clear it was labor supply not labor demand, yet they continued to diagnose it as a demand problem they think that all the things that have been temporarily high for inflation are grand jury to go away but haven't had"ly accounted for things temporarily low like shelter rising. as a result, i've said this every time they've come out with an immediate forecast, they have been way too low even the latest from a week or two ago, i this i that's going to prove to low. i think the fed need a better diagnosis of what's going on, a better communication and you know it remains to be seen if and when they're proven wrong, are they going to raise rates more than they said they're going to i think that's probably what they're going to do. so i think they're probably a couple months behind the curve, or are they going to continue to make excuses for all of it >> i think really just comments by jason on the fed's behavior, i don't have anything to add with that point.

with respect to what we are seeing in terms of consumer behavior, i think it's certainly true that we have, we, the next, i should say, have flooded households with cash at a time when it was difficult for many to spend that cash as things open up and that cash becomes more available to spend, we're seeing that surge if demand that's driving up into some of the price changes that we are seeing >> alex, jason thank you good to see you. coming up, when we return, our exclusive interview with richmond fed president thomas barkin it is straight ahead he will weigh in on all the issues and so much more. plus, we are expecting retail sales data in the next hour. futures ahead in that data, much high ex, do you almost 72 points, nasdaq 53 points higher. s&p 500 up about 19 pots the final hour of "squawk box" begins right after this break.

it's another day. and anything could happen. it could be the day you welcome 1,200 guests and all their devices. or it could be the day there's a cyberthreat. only comcast business' secure network solutions give you the power of sd-wan and advanced security integrated on our activecore platform so you can control your network from anywhere, anytime. it's network management redefined. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities.

good morning, futures pointing higher, aimed to build on a thursday. s&p just had its best day since march. the end of the first big week of earnings there is one big report lyft to

come that is goldman sax. we are standing by for quarterly results coming up this hour. how close is the federal reserve to pulling the trigger on bond tapering we will try to get answers from the president of richmond fed. you do not want to miss it the final hour of the broadcast begins right now good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc or welcome back we're glad to have with you us this morning i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin joe is off today if you haven't seen this after yesterday's big gains, you will continue to see green arose for the morning. the dow is indicated up 160 point s&p up 16 and nasdaq is

better than 1.35% yesterday. the fax saw it's best performance since back to may. the s&p's best performance since march. treasury yields, the 1083 is 1.541% tame but a little higher than yesterday. meantime, we have big stories investors will be talking about. bitcoin topping $60,000 for the first time in six months, coming after a bloomberg report to void trader spirits saying the sec will allow the bitcoin futures esf to be in trading next week the price has nearly doubled since its lows back in the summer right now just under $60,000 meantime, former boeing technical chief pilot has been charged with fraud in connection with the airplane system tied to two fatal crashes of the 737 max jet. according to a federal

indictment he gave false and incomplete information as he considered whether to approve it in 2016. the m-class, the safety system meant to push down the nose of the plane in certain situations. it end up contributing to two crashes in 2018 and 2019, if convicted, he could face decade in prison. shares of virgin galactic said it would delay the launch of the space service to the fourth quarter of next year from the third quarter. the company taking the extra time it said to work on improvement to it space vehicles next. >> thanks, andrew. let's get back to the broader markets after yesterday's big gains on wall street mike santoli has been taking a look at the key benchmarks that appear to be on the cusp of breakouts, this is after months of hitting above those levels and falk back.

>> it looks like upside follow through. some things have gone sideways six months look at the s&p 500 has been on the defensive for i would say six weeks basically since the september 2nd high yesterday itted a one big bite back to this 50-day average. you see it acted as the dip buying level for most of this year until that september 2nd. we spent most of the past couple months below that. this also happened back last fall remember second 2nd high as well in the zaps&p and this was not a deep a drop. it's not necessarily as aggressive a recovery as we saw back then. it was pretty vertical but it seems as if we put some distance between the lows and where we are right now also yesterday, it's hard to see there, but you broke this little down trend so a lot of people are saying,

okay, maybe we give the benefit of the doubt to the fact that the market had a little firmness to it. take a look at the consumer discretionary. this is the equal weighted investigators of the s&p consumer sector. it allows for eliminating the outside role of amazon and tesla in that sector you see flat, flat, since the spring but on the verge of potentially getting above those levels that have capped it for a while obviously, a lot of the credit card data, the banks talking about a strong consumer. so that could be a tailwind. you have things working against it like supply chain a similar story, if you want to look at banks as well, clearly, we got decent earnings coming through. this is the wbw bank index nosing above where we were in the spring so a lot of this market. even as the s&p was going up in the late summer, a lot of this market was abiding it time, going sideways, chopping lower we see we have release to the

upside. >> mike, we were talking about this earlier, is this surprising given the big concerns about inflation? or is it partially because of that too >> i think it's, look, i think we have been co-existing with those concerns a long enough time the market has had min sterd punishment to those areas that will be maybe losers in that scenario we've also, you know, usually a six-week period of correction. if you don't actually have credit markets getting uneasy, it tend to firm up so i thiele think it's arguably there is some rick out there that inflation does not cooperate. we have had some softening of the edge of the inflation story this week. ppi is slightly worse than expected cpi, hot, but not necessarily alarmingly so. treasury yields importantly have kind of blunt theorize they have settled back a little bit so this could be a lull, but i also think there is a chance that we have front-loaded a lot of the concern about the inflation story and what it might mean for the fed >> mike, there is a lot of talk

about j powell and the fed maybe waiting too long to raise rate and you are not only hearing it from republicans at this point you are hearing it from some democrats, too, we heard from jason furman who brought it up larry somers has been speaking up and definitely sooner than the fed is forecasting is that a concern? >> you know, it's certainly a concern. i think that's always a concern at this point in the cycle it's a little bit of eye of the beholder i think the fed is looking at, we're down a few million jobs before covid it's not as if we are absolutely at full employment that's one big part of the pan date, inflation, definitely, they've under estimated how long it would last at these elevated levels i think the market physician if you do an accelerated taper. we are looking at nine, ten, 12 months from now, the first rate hike so far it seems it's fine probably it would feel appropriate. there is that chance the fed is going to be chasing inflation as

opposed to allowing for it and managing. >> mike, thank you we'll see you soon >> meantime, a key panel advisers to the fda officially weighing in now on booster shots and moderna's vaccine, meg tirrell joins us with more. >> reporter: hey, andrew, it was a unanimous voteyesterday 19-0 no the fda to recommend a booster dose of the moderna, a half dose at least six months out from the primary serious as the groups recommended, people over 65 and those between 18 and 64 who are either at heightened risk because of their health or job or institutional setting the panel discussed whether it would make sense to broaden the eligibility for pfizer and moderna and overall the panel was really not on board with that idea. essentially saying there just isn't evidence that there is benefit for everyone the cdc did suggest perhaps 50 and up might make sense at some

point. today the fda's group is meeting to discuss the j&j booster they will talk about it at two months, as well as two months. after that they will take a vote and after that we will see the nih discuss this mix and match data when you give a different vaccine as the boost with j&j, they posted the questions for voting they are not breaking out the same groups of people as we have seen for the mrna vaccines whether that means they will make a broad recat recommendatir narrow it. we'll see how the discussion goes right now it's a broad vote for j&j. that vote is takep before we start mixing and matching. that will be to inform how they think about this going forward guys, the cdc meets next week, we expect potentially folks that got moderna and j&j six months ago can go out and get a boost

>> can you give us any insight on the way is this group is thinking about it versus the cdc and what not specifically in the context, are we trying to avoid hospital debt or are we trying to avoid infection in its entirety to avoid spread at all? >> so, the advisers, particularly the advisers to the fda do seem focused on preventing severe disease, but there are people in the room at these conversations, including i think from the fda who are on the side that it makes sense to try to keep people at work, to try to prevent infection and sick inside of any severity and the administration, of course, when it first came out with its booster plan planned on boosters for everybody. so there is that scientific debate, what are we boosting for. a key concern about boothsing broadly is that there could be a safety issue perhaps for men under age 30 because of that rare heart risk that we saw for

the mrna vaccine so there is a reluck sans to broadly recommend boosters for everybody. that's what you are starting to hear this segmentation the cdc saying this might not make sense how to figure out how to post that meg tier rem, appreciate it thank you? thanks, andrew. when we come back after key inflation data and new insight into the fed's tapering bond purchases, we will hear exclusively from richmond fed president thomas barkin. that's up next stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" and thiss bc icn

[uplifting music playing] ♪ i had a dream that someday ♪ ♪ i would just fly, fly away ♪

it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours?

...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. when we come back, goldman sax third quarter earnings we expect those in minutes stay tuned live in time's square, we are back in just a moment.

the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential. make fitness routine with pure protein. high protein. low sugar. tastes great! high protein. low sugar. so good. high protein. low sugar. mmm, birthday cake.

try pure protein shakes. with vitamins and minerals for immune support. ♪ feel stuck and need a loan? move to sofi and feel what it's like to get your money right. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ move to a sofi personal loan. earn $10 just for viewing your rate — and get your money right. ♪

it's been a big week for economic news. we could be away from the central bank we got the cpi numbers and slightly lower producer numbers. steve leash mab has a special guest. hi, steve. >> >> i am joined by ripped fed president thomas barkin. thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me, steve >> i want to start pretty much the way becky tossed to us on this interview, regarding, let's start with the inflation numbers, the consumer inflation

picked up, food and energy, the core number remained stable at 3% is it your pin that inflation is transitory here or are you starting to believe there are certain structural assets to higher inflation numbers >> there is no question the inflation we saw was heavily driven, almost three-quarters by things like used cars, new cars, rent am tars, return-to-normal in travel and the like what you see in headline is a lot of food and energy some driven by the fly chain i think we're in the part of the process on the core inflation numbers where you actually see step back. you will see airline come down as delta came up you see some of the car prices come down. that's covering up i think some increase and some broadening of the inflation numbers to other

numbers. i think there is risk on the inflation side, i'm watching that very carefully. >> is it your sense inflation will come down next year what kind of numbers are you looking for? >> i think the supply changes will stay elevated longer than i like i think american firms are having trouble getting materials, parts and lo bar goods to markets we will see those extend as i said, some of these used car prices will not stay high forever. rental car prices will not stay high forever there will be some reversion here i think we will see a more extended supply chain that pressures. >> the minutes came out this weak and said that this was a possibility of a mid-november or a mid-december beginning for the taper. do you favor either of those particularly or neither?

>>. >> well, if we do decide to taper at the next meeting, we will have a discussion on which of those two dates, i'm sure and my instinct would be if are you going to decide it, go ahead and move, i'm certainly going to be opened to the debate on both si sides. >> i need to press you on that, does that mane you are undecided if the feds taper asset purchases? >> we will have a discussion in november on tapering as i'm sure and i do think we've come a long way on the labor market and inflation since our goal since december so i am supportive of beginning the process of normalization i think the question you asked was november/december if terms of in terms of the date to start. i think that will be a good discussion. >> in the last several weeks, president barkin, the fed funds future market has begun to price in a rate hike as soon as

september. and it had been the first one in december where do you stand on that is there a possibility that sometime in the sumter fmer the can and should be raising interest rates >> well, when we start tapering, that will give us some amount of time to test what i think are two core questions i don't know the answer to we'll learn in the several months one is on inflation. will inflation come back to the levels of the last 25 years? or is inflation going to hover somewhat closer to the level of the last six months? that's the question of inflation expectations and what will drive them going forward we'll learn about that per your last question. the second thing we will learn of is how close are we to maximum in the labor market? there are sill 5ple people who are not working who were working february 2020. i expected more to come back in the fall with virus presumably

down and schools reopened and enhanced unemployment insurance expired. we haven't yet seen that, maybe we will see it so is the labor market going to be this tight over the next six months is inflation going to come down or not different answers to those questions in my mind would leave me to have different points of view on when we would start to increase rates >> i'm curious just wouldn't answer it in a different way, which is the fed provided a bunch of emergency relief to the economy from the pandemic. the appearance is that the economy has in many ways from a gdp standpoint come back at or above where it was before. why wouldn't you remove the emergency stimulus you provided? because it's not needed anymore? >> well, as you know, a lot of these emergency facilities have wound down and been you know put back in the tool shed. we are talking a defined sequence to this so we are talking next about

asset purse and the question of how to scale those back and then i think after that will come rates. >> mr. barkin on a different issue, you held corporate bonds that you purchased before the federal reserve past year began buying corporate bonds, do these holdings, in your opinion, violate the fed's ethics rules that officials should avoid the appearance of conflict of interest >> gosh. i don't think so at all. i have been in full compliance with the spirit in the letter of all these rules and i do think you put on the show a couple weeks ago, a very fair question. now that we've started with broadened scope and five different things, we ought to take a look at our rules and i think jay is watching that >> even chair powell who owned muni bonds before they started applying muni municipal bonds,

believes that officials should not own the things that the ed is purchasing. is that your opinion >> i am compared to comply with whatever that rule comes out with >> and just sort of one other general question on this, do you believe beneficials should not own intid securities, either stoc-- individual securities, either stocks or bond >> it's leave it for that view i think on the economy. >> fair enough we'll wait for the review and come back to you on that one other question, larry summers yesterday, the former treasure secretary said a generation of central bankser is woke, "woke" in quotes here. i believe he was criticizing federal reserve concentration or focus on a voter of issues, for example, climate change and minority unemployment. is the federal reserve too focused on those issues? has it be him too political in that regard? >> my kids definitely don't

describe me as "woke" steve. what we're trying to do if fifth district is how the vaccine mandate has or hasn't been executed in and across our districts. we're very focused on our small towns, the employment population is 10 or 11 points less than it isin the rest of the economy we're focused on our inner cities we have the same kind of issues. we are trying to bring our research to bareing that's slirn within our mandate that's the stuff we are focused on. >> president barkin, thank you very much nor joining us i look forward to seeing you again. >> glad to be with you, again, stephen. andrew, back to you and a heads-up, if about five minutes, important economic data coming out. >> we will be looking for that number, fascinating conversation i will hand it over to becky it's going to be an analysis here >> let's talk through some of what we just heard and talk

about the data we have been seeing all week long, joining us for that ahead of this data is jim paulsen, the chief investment strategist. jim, this is the big issue, inflation. is it -- i don't think anybody thinks it's transitory at this point. even fed officials don't seem to think that but how big of a deal is this going to be and is the fed going to be required to move more quickly? what do you think? >> well, it's certainly turning out, as you say, less transitory than anyone thought, including myself but i still think that it will calm i think or decelerate next year, becky, for a host of reasons. you know, thebiggest are just the secular force of disinflation are strong because you know lousy demographics in the developed world and industry leader that's very deflationary in technology, global competition is so much more pronounced today, particularly for the united states.

but you know one of the things that i guess i'm looking at is i think there has already been quite a bit of policy tightening going on the recent months that just isn't really appreciated that should help this inflation saga next year >> like what >> the fed's balance sheet was glowing at an 80% year on year in february and now it's down to less than 20%. it's only one-fourth the piece. >> slower growth is not a smaller balance sheet. it means it is growing less quickly than it used to be >> yeah, boy, when you are given 80% growth to monitor expansion, it falls to 20%, that will have an impact on the lag on inflationary forces, the money supply has also slowed down a lot. we don't have to have negative money supply growth rates in the past, becky, to consider that be tightening we have slower monetary growth rates. that's exactly what we got even fiscal stimulus is less this was 18% of gdp. now it's 13%

bond yields have come up to some degree the dollar has been strong, so there are some policy forces that i think will help this inflationary side and i also think that companies will continue to catch up another thing that will help is growth is probably going to slow for about 6% this year to maybe 4, 4.5% next year taking some of the pressure off so i think it will be with us. i think it will also probably still moderate next year. >> one of the biggest things we are facing is the worker shortage what will i take to bring those workers back into the work force? do you think it will be higher wages from employers that finally brings them back or something else >> i think there is two really favorable things here going on in the labor force we just had seven to 8 million people come off the rolls of unemployment in august that's a huge supply of labor.

maybe if half come back there will be another 300,000 so jobs per month coming back into the labor force. on top of that, when we get the kids vaccinated, school age 5-to-12, we are getting close to that i think that will help with parents coming back to home from the work force so another thing i think is really odd in the second year, third year of the recovery to get a huge surge in labor supply, i personally think that will help dampen down labor costs overall and help facilitate a moderation inflation overall. >> maybe jim, we are almost out of time, with that data coming up, you have the strike taking place at deer they have been working not on zoom calls, out in the fields doing these i think so the they're ready for more they want a bigger share of what's to come that seems to me that could be

the precursor of what to expect in a lot of places. >> i i this you are right. i think at the end of the day inflation will moderate. we won't get run away inflation. we will be left with higher inflation in this recovery i don't think it will return to 2% i think it might average more like 3% overall above a sustainable rate above the fed's target i think is what we end up with, not run away, 1% higher than the fed has suggest ltd i don't think that's all bad actually, we look back historically, growth is better, job create is better profits are better, even consumer confidence is better when you have expectation running around 3 tan when they've run at 2 i do think you are right i think we will have sustainable high inflation, that means higher wage inflation as well. >> tim, thank you. have a good weekend. >> you bet thanks. we will head to jim leashman he has breaking news, economic breaking news, what's up

>> good morning, andrew, expect a big beat on the retail sales report i am looking at here as the wires scroll by, retail sales ex-autos up 0.8% the top line 0.7%. it looks like the number was splattered by gasoline sales up 1.8% by the way, all of this data could be enhanced by higher inflation as well. these are nominal numberles. we have to wait for the real retail numbers this is how it's reported in the first go-around. exauto on gas 0.7% let me turn to the table here from the actual census bureau. i'll give you some individual sector numbers by the way, empire state also came out, that was 19.8. a bit of a miss. but still a strong number there. and going to the second table, retail sales, motor vehicles up 0.5% that could be inflation more than it is actual increases here furniture homes, zero,

electronic iplienappliance storw 0.9% let's look at the control group. i don't have that. non-store picks up the internet 0.6% that's pretty strong food and drinking is up 0.3. an interesting element to this story, andrew, we want to see this number go down. why is that? because there has been this huge imbalance in the economy where people have been buying more goods, they're unable to buy services this retail sales number only picks up a small amount of services out there, over time, this number should come down, at least the growth number should come down. the services number, which we get from other reports, not quite as much detail should go up over time so this is still a strong number we'll see if we sort of mid-september is when it felt like the economy was maybe reopening again in a way we were used to it so we'll see if the october data, this number eases

off a bit. we start to see more spending by consumers on services, andrew. >> okay. steve, thank you for the number. the dow is about 160 point right now. we have earnings from third quarter results. will joins us with those numbers. >> revenue 13.6 become the forecast was 11.7 become that is up 26% year over year, which is the exact same percentage year over year increase morgan stanley had those two clear big winners from this quarter, along with bank of america as well, the ets bottom line 14.9 per share. the forecast was 10.1. another big beat on that line. individual business, investment banking is comfortably the factor that leads us 3.7 billion if revenue the forecast was for 2.9 so nearly a full billion ahead of forecast like the others, financial advisory, the mna advisory part is driving at the 1.7.

the forecast is 1.1, though origination and also doing fairly well under feat that. in terms of their marks, their trading business, again, very strong on both lines, equities 3.1 billion. forecast for 2.1 is almost a full billion ahead of expectation. the financing within that was a full billion sol we'll see how the analysts pick that apart. the fixed income trading strong 2.5. the from the for two slight risk on asset management. the forecast was 2.6 become a. similar theme there to morgan stanley as well yesterday. the last quarter is where goldman had this extraordinary 5 million revenue print. so that has come back down as expected, a little behind forecast the consumer wealth forecast, 2 billion forecasted for 1.8 billion. that is growing. that significant part of the business though it is the investment bank tag blew this, a big beat on both lines the costs kind of in line so i'm surpriseding to see how that

works out. >> the fact that the bond trading number was higher than people thought, people were concerned about that given they have greater exposure than the other banks. a big take away this week, now that we're on a friday you've had a big week, will. >> a big take away is still, still capital markets is the gift that keeps on giving, seven or eight quarters where it's been stunningly high numbers a different part, each quarter picks up the slack a. few quarters ago, it was fixed income trading, goldman to do well in that environment, even though it wasn't a key part of the quarter. bank of america, we'll see if the other banks do what they did and start delivering that operating leverage if rates do rise. >> the real question is do you think a rerating in terms of multiple on a number of these stocks or is this still a show-me story? >> i think the really interesting one is goldman, they are trading at a discount to

morgan stanley they've had a great share price run-up over the last year or so it's been a really strong last 12 months for them they're dill a discount to morgan stanley, you can see why, they are more tilted than morgan stanley so that's never given quite as high a multiple in asset management but they will want to continue to close that gap. i'm looking forward to the call on the position and what they might do with capital return as well >> looking forward to your reporting all day. back to you. when we come back, is president biden's multi-trillion dollar again da gettin-- agenda getting os tclero passing? stay tuned this is "squawk box" and this is cnbc gold. your strategic advantage.

a developing story in washington new reports say negotiations are progressing in congress on president biden's economic agenda kayla tausche joins us on the "squawk" news line what are you hearing >> there is a natural crescendo early next week. both sides will be in after a nearly two-week recess

interestingly, the word progress is mentioned it's unclear if that's a function of true break through or a function of necessity because time is of the essence, especially with a new debt limit deadline now presented in early december and if zats are going to use the very lengthy budget process to pass this on a party line vote, then they really need to get this started for the build back better package, if they are going to also have to use that very lengthy process to raise the debt limit so they don't have any time to waste and there are a few things that need to happen. number one, there needs to be on agraem aagreement on how to treat the deduction on state and local taxes. until there is an agreement on exactly what that looks like, it's really hard to pack into with the overall size and scope of the package then can be i am told an agreement in principle is very close on that, if it hasn't already happened. but there is still particularly perplexing dynamic between the

two moderate and democratic senators, senator joe manchin and senator kyrsten sinema of arizona, there seems to be odds over the concept of this package and how you get into it. for instance, manchin i am told is okay with more progressive taxes but he really wants a hard line on spending and he is really against any sort of carbon tax, where kyrsten sinema is okay with a carbon tax i am told and she is very staunch in her position she only wants marginal increases to the tax rates for capital gains for the highest income bracket and the corporate tax rate so those are really difficult positions. sinema is okay with an overall price package and there is coverage about the differing positions of the two on drug pricing reform, which is a very expensive part of this package so it's hard to see how they

square some of those issues without the package being much smaller. it is very clear time is of the essence, the white house said in no uncertain terms that perhaps they're not frustrated or impatient. but they have communicated to the hill that time is not open-ended to be carrying out these negotiations >> kayla, we had senator bill cassidy on the show earlier this morning, obviously, one of the republicans that helped put the bipartisan infrastructure bill together for $1.5 trillion he threw out a whole other idea with republicans in the house i guess pushing them he said if the house republicans would vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the 1.5 billion that he has been supporting, it would move that along and take it away from the progressives, who are holding that up. he said he has been telling them they should 'doing that. >> well, i'd be interested in hearing whether house republicans feel there are enough to deploy that to move past progressives and whether

from speaker pelosi's standpoint, whether that risc angering the progressive party because then they lose their support on other issues. >> that's what i wondered, too, if they would take them up on that deal. it would put them in a tough spot to not go along with that when it's their own bill they are interested in. there are so many different factions that hold an awful lot of power, it seems like this will get more and more interesting and more chaotic maybe as we get closer to anything happening. >> yes and especially the presence of that new debt limit deadline that is definitely throwing a wrench into the negotiations, because it definitely pushes the administration and democrats up against the clock as if they weren't already before, but it was a time line of their own making, whereas now it is a time line with a new external force needing to move on to how they hand tell debt limit so we'll see how they do that, but it is clear that the next

feat will be critical for the negotiations >> the clock is ticking. it may not be a clock that manchin or sinema hear and are moving along to. kayla, thank you jim cramer's first take on the friday trading session plus we will wrap up a week for the fang stocks and look ahead to earnings, top analyst mark mahaney. are you watching "squawk box" on cnbc ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

that building you're trying to sell, - you should ten-x it. - ten-x it? ten-x is the world's largest online commercial real estate exchange. you can close with more certainty.

and twice as fast. if i could, i'd ten-x everything. like a coffee run... or fedora shopping. talk to your broker. ten-x does the same thing, - but with buildings. - so no more waiting. sfx: ding! see how easy...? don't just sell it. ten-x it.

>> let's get down to the new york stock exchange, check in with jim cramer. jim, it's friday, we had a big week with the banks. we just got goldman sachs. tell me what you think >> it tells my i was a moron to leave goldman sachs. day and i were talking about what 20 billion? it is extraordinary. what is happening in this period, it's not the beating of the numbers, typically bang of america. the estimates have nothing to do what they've reported. all they talk about is the yield curve. it meant nothing the fees are out of control. i think people have to recognize, whether it be goldman sachs, these are sticky fees we got to stop thinking the of them decembering of low price globals. >> that's the key. these things last. >> they're sticky. you should not have these

numbers. it's entirely possible they're a new level of the way companies make money in this business. i know we have this moment for mna, it was big. the asset management is gigantic the market went up, the bears don't understand this self fulfilling prophecy. the rich get richer. you know what also managed to be good the apple cart the apple cart, 7 million. they're not losing the money that everybody thought they were going to lose. it's a clean start so i think no a credit card, it will matter. it's buy now, pay later. it happens to be apple i loved this quarter i loved it. >> jim, bitcoin. >> andrew. >> bitcoin, flirting at 60,000 over 60,000 at the moment. we have this user port that we could see an etf around bitcoin futures next week. >> 40 etfs liquidity. young people at robinhood running ahead of it thinking

that when the itf rz announced, that will bring new money in from the j.p. morgan customers so why not run ahead and dump it on, so there is a possibility a lot of people feel i deal with you can get a short-term peak as people run ahead in etfs i think we have to watch that it's a known thing that we've had historically that is tough. so let's stay on that. >> so you're not calling for a shot to 100,000 then >> no, i'm not as a matter of fact i may cash half of my etherium. >> i know. >> it's no longer etherium. >> i know mike novogratz will probably be mad at me and i like him very much, but i can't do my job based on that mike novogratz might be mad at me >> jim, i have to give you a shout out for being such a good hard core fan. you went down, saw the game last

night in philly. even after not loving it, thinking it was a nightmare, are you still saying, you got to own them, you don't trade the phillies, you own them >> yeah, howie roseman, it was a boeing moment. it was a disney moment for a couple but then it became very boeing >> i'm with you. my family's with you >> there's like a whole boeing period where there was threw up, three out, and then -- you know, then we reverted to boeing at the end. >> sad story, boeing we'll be talking about that in a few minutes, too. >> absolutely. you can sign up for the new investing club just point your phone right tut screen, check out that code there. it will taking directly there. >> andrew? >> the first of the faang names,

you'll be hearing from netflix our next guest added it to the tactical outperform, but here is mark mahaney good morning, mark we'll get our fill of the tech companies. you like netflix now what happened? >> well, going into the back half of the year, there's going to be a local of challenging headwinds when it comes to online retail. there's a ecosystem on the internet, and they work together they've been a rocketship for the last six quarter online advertising for the last fouruarters. they've had huge tailwinds you want to play for the next couple quarters, companies that are away from that they have a great narrative. netflix and uber at the top of that list.

netflix has the most popular show with "squid games." and that's not mentioning the shows that get renewed into 2021 netflix has broken up, up 23%, i think it goes higher >> the stock's already moved -- or maybe the question is, has it will have moved in anticipation of the issues you are talking ab about. >> no, it obviously has, but i think there's more up side here is the math behind it i think they're on track to do something like 30 bucks on earnings i know the stock is broken out, but keep in mind, look back over a year and a half, the stock hasn't had a dramatic move, so i think there's more room. the narrative will be strong both the fourth quarter and into

2021, even if there's disappointment, i think the market will buy it not too many stocks can say that at this point. you any there's going to be any impact from this whole controversy or chappelle >> i don't think so. i think this is a point where maybe we went too far as a political-social issue, but i'll leave that aside clearly he's very popular and controversial entertainer. those usually come together. there's some edgy comments made, so i'll just leave it at that. i don't think it undermines the momentum at netflix. it's much too strong. >> you're now like -- you used to love facebook is it really just what happened in the past month or two that's shifting your view now >> no, i want to set this up right. retail, we have a lot of

headwinds when it comes to retail, inventory, wage inflation. we did have a bit of a shift when consumers came back the last quarter, she schiffed towards online, there's also -- a bunch of thesed headwinds that are coming together, and some of the other issues, i want to acknowledge the fact that facebook and google have had a phenomenal run, so comps are getting tougher, then you have all these issues i think those retail headwinds bleed over into online -- >> you're saying it's a straight economic argument, not an argument around regulation, priefer sit or any of the other sort of big theme issues we talk about in washington all the time. >> yes, correct. you're right it's not about regulation or economics. i don't think we'll have a dramatic change. i don't think users will be leaving facebook, i don't think tiesers will, and i don't think

employees will, either, if i'm right about those three things you don't wyou want to be long but not short term. when we return, top stocks to watch you're wchating "squawk box" from the nasdaq marketsite in times square

need to get your prescriptions refilled? capsule pharmacy can hand deliver your medications - today - for free. go to capsule.com. we handle your insurance. all you have to do is schedule delivery. go to capsule.com to get started in 15 seconds today. sustainability is essential to creating a better tomorrow. that's why cisco is committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2040. and we believe our smart buildings solutions can help. providing power to reduce emissions, intelligence to eliminate waste, and collaboration tools that help the workplace and the planet. between meeting human needs and a sustainable future, there's a bridge. cisco, the bridge to possible.

dom chu has some of the morning movers. >> what a week it's been the epicenter of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem i bitcoin prices up again today, $59,267 the last trade there. we're trying to see in the $63,000 was the record it's been doubling on a yearly base. from digit at gold to actual physical gold. gold prices right nower taking a bit of a tumble in trading so far, down about 1.5% it's been an interesting trade for gold so far.

you haven't seen a huge bid for it, still watching gold prices fall right now also what's happening with the banks, goldman sachs with a huge beat and m&a a big part of that story. this week, you can see they're all up by roughly a% in the premarket trade. as we do here, a check on the most popular tickers on our web side from yesterday's full session, many of the same names in there, but bank of america the number two ticker searched ten-year yield always number one there. moderna up 2% right now. as always, the rest of the top ten on my twitter feed the rest of the top 50 are highlighted there. have a nice weekend, guys. meantime, a final check on the markets ahead of the opening bell, a half hour to go before

we do that right now everything is looking up, up, up we'll take a quick look at the ten-year as well dom did most of the work for us. >> he did. we got to go have a great weekend, everybody. have a great weekend, becky. >> you too. "squawk on the street" begins right now good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. we have some follow-through this morning after the biggest s&p gain in seven months bank earnings and press got a blowout, showing a surprise gain yields on the two-year hitting a fresh pandemic high. our road map begins with rally mode