right now everything is looking up, up, up we'll take a quick look at the ten-year as well dom did most of the work for us. >> he did. we got to go have a great weekend, everybody. have a great weekend, becky. >> you too. "squawk on the street" begins right now good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange. we have some follow-through this morning after the biggest s&p gain in seven months bank earnings and press got a blowout, showing a surprise gain yields on the two-year hitting a fresh pandemic high. our road map begins with rally mode

retail sales are priced to the up side. goldman sachs shares are rallying ahead of the open they crushed earnings estimates as investment banking revenue, well, we'll get to it, it was up a lot. >> getting a boost, shares are moving higher. to david's point goldman revenue up 88, it's going to make morgan stanley's stellar number look soft. >> they thought in the first three quarters better than any year that goldman has had in the history of the firm. we're talking about -- they beat top line, 16%, bottom line 48% i'm calling this a drop the mic quarter for steve scherr, who is retired. >> longtime cfo. >> he's like cher. >> no offense to him, most don't

know who he is >> he doesn't care frankly, when you speak to him, he makes the point that i'm an idiot to have ever left. >> you should not be complaining. nobody is holding a fund-raiser for you, my friend get back to the numbers. >> look, a lot of it is m&a, okay, which could be episodic. >> though, on m&a there is a lot of activity at -- not a lower level, but a level that pays high fees. it's not headline deals. those kinds of deals you are not likely to see in this current regulatory environment there is an expectation you're going to be met with significant opposition, where you announce some sort of strategic kind of deal that said, m&a is very

strong >> i thought that was great. here's something that we don't talk about any of. the applecart. i know people told me they'll be losing a couple billion, no, it's containable, so, you know, you have a company then you could argue this company deserving d. the argument is -- >> that's the old way of looking at things. of this yield curve, morgan stanley is an asset gatherer

bank of america has a lot of different fees i say to myself, you know what it's no longer episode stick trading, jest sin grained. >> it's a backward way of looking at things. >> it may be, though we're moving in the right direction. look how much money they make, all of them, and morgan stanley, we spoke to james gordon i love a business where, you know, we used to say, boy, the assets go out the door every day. they don't that's another could nard there's a lot of coanards that have been busted. >> you're not buy buying my thesis >> of course, these days nobody

goes in and out of the building, but their bedroom. even at morgan stanley, it moved the needing a lot. this is not a beat the estimates quarter. this is analysts starting to think of these banks in a different way. they're not doing what you're thinking they're making fortunes. they have all figured out ways to make money away from the old curve. did you just yawn? >> no, that was not a yawn. >> hence at other stuff, but not that that was a good point. >> i was at the game last night. yawning at the checked win >> there's a lot of outrage about the need for robots at the plate. >> wow, a.i., metaverse.

>> game five, arguably the two best teams in baseball, ninth inning, two outs, ah switching to retail sales, jim >> how can everybody be so wrong, carl? >> sporting goods, restaurants, general merchandise, even in the face of things that you might not be able to find. >> i think -- this was kind of a post-delta, when we had that -- we had the big delta scare, and now i think we're talking -- you listen to meg, and the question is only how long your immunity lasts. do you go six months eight months we're not talking anymore about something that is life-threatening it seems like we're talking about something that i don't want to give you, you don't what give me, but you could be out of from -- when a guy from the nfl gets it, but vaccinated, he's actually could be playing in the next game. >> ivan tri've been trying to ma

point for a long time. it's still a concern, but the vast majority of people who have gotten vaccinated don't get very sick, thankfully merck has already made the submission for the antiviral the expectation is peer review, may be available to the end of the year testing, though, remains a very important component of this. 1234. >> i carry binax everywhere, because i feel like, let's test. >> to go the nasdaq, you have to show a test. at the games l.a. night, i said, do you want to see my card that was a tip-off of what was going to happen. no, i don't need to see your card

>> it went downhill from there >> yeah. >> it's philadelphia, we don't knee your car. the worst outbreak of the flu in philadelphia i don't need to see your card. >> you talked to domino's last night, with two price cuts today. it was a very sobering conversation >> when you look more broadly at the engine that really driving, you know, our businesses and our economics, it's retail sales growth, it was up 8.5%. >> i'll tell you what's really shocking we get to speak to guests, this is an -- rich allison started

the conversation more importantly, he's saying, listen, we -- the great thing about our country is immigrants come, may become drivers, next thing they own a domino's, next thing -- we literally have to start thinking about an immigration policy that start thinking about taking in people. how kind of a discussion is that when not la long ago we have to keep people out. rich says we don't have enough people these are great jobs they're entrepreneurial jobs they start, they don't necessarily have to have a computer science degree from stanford, which i feel like washington always demands that you have do we not have enough -- >> he's not alone. >> who else is doing it? >> he's not alone is saying we

need robust immigration, not to mention how many people are leaving the workforce. >> but do you hear washington talk about it? it's the third rail in washington. >> it's a very difficult issue for a long time. we have not gotten a national consensus at any time and/or law out of congress. it was the w. bush administration where they were close. >> this is something we're going to be talking about. we don't have growth in this country. italy has no growth, france -- >> famously. >> remember -- unlimited -- >> we've been a great growth company. you look at the census -- >> in part because of immigration, yes >> and they have to start talking about not having enough people, as opposed to washington thinking we need to create more jobs i'm not kidding, i looked at

domino's and how many million nair they created out of people who just work hard they have to have drivers, just to be able to grow, they need drivers. >> i want to go back to the broader market we're coming off the best day since march, the pattern typically has been that we reverse whatever we had the day before. >> until the last week of october, that has been the pattern. >> and we also have this question about powell at the fed. by the way, that is not something to gloss over. >> you can bet on that -- >> you can bet on whether powell is going to be reappointed >> there's a piece out today, and white house officials argue that his trance of renomination has been dented, but not dism dismantled. >> these guys are all feifdoms.

>> it's so unfair if he's nailed for that >> if you were to get a new fed chair, the markets test a new fed hair. >> very much >> remember what powell went through initially? >> his rookie year, i was very tough on him he went on "ellen" and said we need three hikes let's go on "the view. "inside edition" i want to talk about something that happened yesterday. we had a guy who is arguably the smartest person in america, right? he won "jeopardy" he represented the average person he's not talking about retail sales. i just got $1.5 million, and

what do i do i'm putting it in the stock market he's going for a graduate degree in new haven, and he represents america. all these people come in and say, you know what i think we have to switch into cyclicals. no, the average american is not even thinking about any of these nonsense. >> given hi's a young guy to be more allocated toward equities than he even thought. >> i think we have to think about the average smart person does not think about all the this insider stuff they're not thinking about the checked swing or whether hurts should have gotten it, but you know what? i like stocks. they make money, so i'm going to buy them >> now you've given everybody a reason to turn the tv off. >> where is jay now? what show is he on >> does he not text you?

>> it's all about it is nfl. >> there's a big trade coming in philadelphia i'm not going to talk about it >> let's not, not right now. still to come, we'll break down news on the booster moderna one of the biggest leaders on -- and tactical calls on netflix, facebook, uber we're back in a moment

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an fda panel unanimously recommending a booster dose of moderna for adults at the same time international travelers november 8th, fully vaxed. >> that's why these airlines are interesting. delta stock went down a lot. i'm starting to think, listen, you've got to be thinking un united i think you have to be thinking disney it's owned by my charitable trust, but you know when the people come here, they go to disney. >> disney is already flat-out at the parks. >> yeah, it's sold out >> macy's, that's always been a huge chunk of our business, in new york >> macy's is an old activist

name remember -- >> listen,s in '70s, david, you put the -- >> i don't feel as though that's worth mentioning we'll see what happens >> i'm saying, maybe it's d derisk. >> by the way, that news was out last week, macy's. it came out of that conference i was at >> yeah, you broke the story. >> i didn't break it, it just -- go ahead. >> this is all part and parcel of what is going on. italy, they're require that means italy tourism will come back big. the requirement, the requirement is what we keep hearing. >> not the mandate, the requirement merck stock is going

up merck is now back to flat on the year it responded very positively to the news on peer review, for the great week it had, now it's kind of reversed. >> the quarter is not -- j&j will have a good quarter it was a brilliant thing they did. they created -- but, you can see them move up. >> look, merck has a great cancer franchise but we keep thinking, what else do they have this it's kind of like biogen. the alzheimer's drug may not be as effective. >> a lot of doctors may not actually prescribe it. >> the work i do for american migraine foundation, i speak with a lot of doctors. they don't feel it's nearly as effective, and tiffs it was outu

that it got approved people resigned. brain people i deal with, and i deal with a lot of brain people, they're like, are you kidding me you get maybe three months, three months that's not enough for 56k. our system can't handle that. >> we talked about it, and i'm sure we will for a while. cramer's mad dash is coming up after the break we'll get to the opening bell. a look at futures after the great day yesterday. s&p will open pretty much about 2% more "squawk on the street" a mentin

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welcome back, everybody. the opening bell in about seven minutes or now you want to talk tesla in the "mad dash" >> we're beginning to hear themes for third quarter all very positive. jeffries goes with a price target of 950. it isn't just enough that musk builds superior cars one of the things that jeffries likes here, they are the best semiconductor sourcer. musk even gets the right semis this is a magical quarter that's occurring. i think even here, netflix and tesla are going to be the two stars of this quarter, because they're exciting tesla with the berlin factor and sourcing, that obvious live looks -- these are the two that

i think hedge funds will gravitate towards. >> tesla now eclipses i think an $800-plus billion market value -- in part on the strengths of the chinese consumer. >> i've been trying to figure out tesla and netflix. do you take one of the as out? people don't like apple. there's an underperformance of facebook that came out. >> i created faang and staying with it. i'm staying with the eagles. >> are you positive on tesla >> i've been positive on tesla ever since i drove one >> that is a chart wow. the opening bell is a few minutes away remember, you can catch us

anytime anywhere, you can listen to and follow the opening bell podcast. who wouldn't want to do that back after this.

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crypto is not a fad, it's not going away we're not seeing among wealthy clients, they may put -- i talk to people, maybe 1% of their portfolio in it. nobody is putting 10% of their portfolio in it. a lot of people wants to participate. they don't know how it will ultimately play out. >> that's morgan stanley's ceo james gorman yesterday talking about crypto closing in on 60k, the first in about three months >> i got a love of blowback from what gorman said, people in that 20s, 30s, 40s, saying mr. gorman

is out of touch, and the percentage that's ethereum is actually 10, 15, 20. that's in part because the younger people don't believe in the dollar they watch the $4 trillion this and that, and they say this is a better investment than the dollar younger people just have -- i'm concerned. >> how about the news that the s.e.c. will not contest -- >> i think the short-term buying is elevating when the etf is creating, the idea is there will be a pop, and they can sell some of their bitcoin. there are some trading in the name, obviously. but the real blowback is maybe the older people are really out of touch >> we're going to find out

it's been a long trip back to 60 the big board is -- [ cheers and applause [ bell ringing ] >> it's loud down here >> yesterday was a day that people said, maybe it's over i don't know if it's over, but there is excitement. if you listened to the goldman call, we're in aera where people are saying, you know what? you've got to own stocks >> well, they want to own them today. >> you know the south china -- you saw the papers saying that there's maneuvers being done to be ready to take over taiwan by the prc. that's not in the market

every day the drumbeat gets louder and louder. >> jim, we've got the s&p now back above the 50-day. there has been a lot of discussion about the down trend the last month and a half. is it broken >> i mean, i just -- i expected a lot more big misses and different lines on the banks, including loans, balance sheets of individuals they're so much stronger, and you start saying, wait a second, is there some sort of outside baseball track that's much more powerful than the inside baseball track that makes the consumer weaker? >> i think the consumer, when you listen to the bank of america call, consumer is very strong gold man, credit card, business is strong. this is a different area i'm saying the gloom of wall street is not shared with main

street. >> you made the point yesterday about savings, and about how much money people basically have. >> the younger people have five times -- if you had $10,000, $20,000 in your bank account, you're up dramatically and then you see earnings like j.b. hunt. i didn't like their number they talked about how they had labor problems, but the bottom line was good. what keeps happening is these companies are able to make great money even though the fates are against them j.b. hunt is the third largest trucker. they can't find trucker, but they can still coin money. >> i know you had been frustrated with u.p.s. in the charitable trust. >> i am. u.p.s. had a -- they got pulled

down by fedex, and by their own analyst meeting. we don't know the substance of what president biden is saying about what they need to do in the ports, but leon ron, he's in charge of uber trucking, uber freight. they are creating a model with a lot of short-term truckers he said truckers sense they can make far more money on their own, so you see them going away from j.b. hunt, buying two, three, four trucks it's not going to be solved, but he does think we're getting closer to where it comes out where we have a lot more drivers pulp uber. isn't that something >> it is something those jobs aren't counted as jobs. >> isn't that something? >> are we undercounting the amount of labor? >> i think we are. i remember my father -- this was when the trucker comes to your

place, and as soon as -- who unloads it does the customer unload it? what uber said, there's a ballots in the warehouse of who unloads, who loads, and it's kind of like the ports, who unloads, who loads we have to solve this not last mile, but last foot. i'm doing last foot. >> sure. last foot. >> have you adopted it already >> no, but i'm working with it not the last mile, but the last foot. >> we might go there >> i did notice that, well, the broader mark, apple shares are lagging once again we talked a lot about it this week, whether it's with products potentially coming, obviously questions about their ability to get enough chips to maintain products levels. >> yeah, but did you see that

goldman recommended broadcom today? i think i feel that apple is like tesla they will source what's need ed you always talk about how -- the ceo of broadcom. >> goldman says, we're most uncertain on trains and automotive but at a high level, they expect types that contribute to automotive, power management, microcontrollers to fare better. >> and what's their favorite stock still in the group amd. throughout this period there's one person that's been a beacon in this group, and then nvidia, okay, and they like marvell. marvell is not -- not avengers,

but a semiconductor company. >> i'm aware >> thank you. >> so it's three, marvell, it's nvidia, and amd. that's what goldman wants you to own, but they like broadcom now. those are all high-performance computers. i have amazon web services on tonight, and marvell has specialized chips. >> we're going to get some earnings next week, evercore today names netflix a tactical outperform best net stock relative to the estimates going into the print. >> they spent a billion developing korean programming. rarely have i seen one movie move a stock, one program move a stock like this has. it has gripped america i find when we're talking about

the eagles, they want to know who is watching this program it's gripped america, david. >> actually, the world yeah, which goes to the power of the netflix program. this was a program proud not in this country, in south korea, and obviously has great currency around the world maybe not north korea. they don't seem to like it too much, but i don't know that they have a lot of netflix viewers. >> but north korea has soldiesoldiers sleeping on beds of naval. i know someone who has been to north korea. >> to the end -- >> he looked at it >> it was like, on the bridge -- >> that was far enough. >> i loved it. that was great tv. >> it's hard to believe the winter olympics -- >> that's coming up. >> guys, i did want to get back to the financials. we started with goldman sack, up

about 2-plus percent all of which have now reported ea earnings and they're -- goldman is having the best performance actually citi showing some strength here. it does have, by far -- goldman is a bit behind it, but a bank of that size, less than $150 million market cap. >> 78, 79 tangible book, for those at home, the more they buy stock, the better things are that's not the case with jpmorgan by the way, we haven't talked much about jpmorgan. >> i feel like we talk about it

every day. its earnings were not as good. >> i think this is seitgeist. >> people it's the creeping of fintech. >> jamie is adamant he's missed fintech. look at a company like upstart it's one of the greatest performers ever. wells fargo, which did not have a great quarter, adopted upstart. it's a.i., the way they do it in china. i just find that jamie is an old-fashioned banker i'm not saying he's a dinosaur i'm not going there with the

v very velociraptor. >> square is $115 billion market share. >> why why? >> they're willing to back people who jpmorgan is not interested in. >> yeah. >> they don't -- jpmorgan -- had they gotten away from the very concept of helping the small business technologically, what do you think >> i think there's something to that obviously we talked a lot about paypal. >> jamie is dismissive of a lot of this technology. >> i don't know. >> eh, blockchain. >> it can be a side effect of getting older. >> charlie sharp's adopting upstart. >> explain to people what upstart does i think sometimes we gloss over

these things >> these are all these a.i. algorithms that allow much more accurate -- that's what i was talking about yesterday, though, with the buy now/pay later, what they've been able to do there, the a.i. that powers a lot of that it makes decisions about who to lend to. >> you know, rocket mortgage loan losses are lower. >> that has not about a great move since it went public. >> rocket has disappointing, though i love dan gilbert. >> two names -- space with a five-month low, and boeing, with this indictment of the ex-pilot, as the criminal prosecution

continues. >> you know, in -- eagles went three and out three times in a row. it was a boeing moment even though the charitable trust owns boeing, i keep thinking when something goes awry, it's a boeing moment. i think they have to start using it as a descriptive. what do they have going this weekend? we'll play it out. >> i'm going up to boston. >> you probably not might be boeing the loss to the eagles that's a boeing moment for tepper i had a boeing weekend. >> it wasn't the only news this week the journal with that piece about -- actually the statement from the company about the 787. >> why do you still own it in

your charitable trust? >> because if the chinese place the order, if there's a recognition there's nobody left to indict or go after, bud to this a runaway jury? >> in the early days of self-flagellation? >> you know what you have stowed they have to sacrifice some people faa, anybody has beewho touched 737, they're gone. i think it has to be a root and branch purge you could do this. david, you can't have a product that was defective, where people knew it was defective, okay? and prosecuted for fraud, because they didn't -- what they did is they didn't want to have

to have people be trained on it so it's time, root and branch, period, hard stop. just get it over with. it's time. did you work on the 737? boom okay required i wish irkidding, but no one is going to let these guys go until they say we've done it charlie sharp, he's sacrificed everybody. they're now starting to be in good grazes, with wells fargo. s&p 500 and dow within 2% of all-time highs. >> really we only had two great

days this week we're up about 1.5% for the s&p 500, and it's retail stocks doing well on the retail reports, and banks as well banking are having a good week banking hes traditional sell off once they have earnings, but that's not happening kohl's, macy's doing great goldman knocked it out of the ballpark energy, tech lacking, but still on the up side a lot of banks this week, but j.b. hunt, jim mentioned them, they're the one to watch when you're having logistics problem. they reiterated what we've been hearing, demand is strong, but there are labor shortages out there. they referenced three specific areas, rail networks, truck networks, and customer warehouses for labor shortages

so these labor shortages are limiting the utilization, the ability to keep moving things. truck, for example, limiting the capacity to deliver. the whole logistics problem and labor problem in a nutshell is with j.b. hunt they have a new high on that particular stock bank earnings are moving the market higher. goldman took the numbers up. earnings up, we've had 41 companies reporting so far, not just banks this week, average earnings growth, that's about in line with the estimates. the average beat is 14.7%. that's good. it was much lower earlier in the week they're bringing up the average inch earnings beat last few years it's been big beats around 11. so pretty good numbers overall while the market is moving up on better bank earnings, the bigger

banks aren't moving that much. u.s. bancorp is still down on the week the etf, kbe, you have to move back to 2007 we're sitting at essentially new highs going back 15 years. finally we've been talking about it all throughout the morning. we are waiting for the possibility of a bitcoin etf futures coming up. potential the s.e.c. could put a kibosh by monday if they don't, they'll be operating, proshares s. as gensler has indicated, there are real problems with this, because

we lack the regulatory oversight they need to control the exchanges and other things bitcoin futures will reduce that problem, because you don't have viscosity issues, you don't have people with their bitcoin accounts and exchanges hacked, so a bitcoin futures contract solves the problem, which is moving forward on crypto in general, but still working to get more regulatory control over the whole crypto space carl, back to you. >> bob, thanks bob pisani the dow is up 234, just about 1.3% away from a record high we have the vix down to 16 a look at the bond report, treasuries this morning, we did see a bit of a pop in the short-term two-year yield. ten-year recovering around 1.56. "squawk on the street" will continue at a short break.

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comcast business powering possibilities. it's time for jim and stop trading. >> it's that mcmchay moment. there's a huge market share gain by ford and what they have, a price position far above cadillac similar to bmw different from the u.s.a. and the chinese love the lincoln isn't that something it is going really fast and i don't think anyone is talking about the lincoln selling out. isn't it something the lincoln. he's the smartest, coolest guy i got the right max. you got some other max

>> are you thinking of running for senate >> he's so cool. i'm scared yourier just too cool. i can't talk to you. >> tonight >> amazon web services perhaps the most important entity in business today and it is so exciting. and i have not given up on the eagles i bleed green. i love them. and he'll do what's necessary to get us in the super bowl eventually i liked it i got it tailored in milan >> "mad money. squawk on the street is back on the break.

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♪ good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. lively at post nine of the new york stock exchange. after the best day since march of the s&p, dow adding more points a lot of things going well

decent macro data, solid consumer >> we're 30 minutes into the trading session. here are three big movers we're watching moderna shares continue to climb higher after they recommended booster for age 65 and up and those considered most at risk. plus, jb hunt's higher too after the solutions company -- they do a lot of trucking -- reported better than expected revenue and profit the growth helped to offset higher wages, transportation costs and network congestion and finally, virgin galactic is tanking after the company announced it would delay the launch of the commercial space service to the fourth quarter of 2022 earlier guidance had bet for late q3 and it would push the space flight for the italian work force

we're going to talk more about that later this hour but you can see the shares are down 14.5% >> stocks coming off the best day for the s&p since march. where do things head from here happy friday, good to see you. >> happy friday to you too, carl >> we've talked about how the market's had a lot thrown at it in the last month and a half are we getting the picture that was it. >> >>b think what's more likely to happen is we continue the rotational corrections 91% of the s&p has had a draw down and the average is minus 18%. so, we've actually had close to a bear market if you look under the hood a bit and for the nasdaq, it's even more extreme 90% have had a 10% drawdown or

more and we've had plenty of corrective phases. it's just happened via the process of rotation. and there's enough pockets of strength that it's netted each other out and we end up with nothing more than a 5% drop so far. could in the index touch down? possible but we could continue to see rotational corrections, which is not a bad way to have a correction, verses the botught bottom falling out >> has there been enough of the pre prepricing >> the good news is since we're past earnings growth of close to 100% so far the trajectory of earnings, we're still early in the season, is fairly strong and

even though the growth rate will be lower, in dollar terms we're adding to earnings which has been a great force bringing multiples down. verses last year from a sentiment perspective, rilgts armixed bag household exposure to equities and the buffett model are way in the stratosphere but some of the short term sentiment measures suggest thad there has been a bit more caution in terms of attitude we did see an easing in some of the froth we were seeing in sentiment quarters >> i know you tweeted about earnings and i'm seeing a couple different takes on it. jp morgan argued equities don't historically underperform as that revision rate tops out.

what do you think? >> it does tend to usher in a bit more volatility. but i think the most important take away from the rolling over in earnings provisions is it highlights the benefit in terms of out performance of finding companies that have rising earnings revisions that has been the dominant performer. we've been saying -- i know we've spoken about it that you want to be a bit more factor focus or style-boxed focussed. and the beauty of ar an earnings revision factor is it's almost a high growth in value factor. you get the growth component by finding companies with earnings revisions in an environment where they're going down and that means your forward ce is comingdown because of the boost from the denominator

that, i think is the take away more spiff clay verse as sign that the market is facing impending doom which, to your point, it's not based on that measure. >> you've been tweeting out data around the supply chain bottle neck we've been seeing for weeks now. as we have these conversations, how long -- i mean, based on the data you're going through and sharing, how big of a risk could it continue to be? >> i think it's going to vary depending on what good or service you're talking about we know there's a ramp up for semiconductors but that doesn't turn around overnight. then you've seen freeing up in

terms of supplier delivery times, depending on what the mismatch is between demand and supply i don't think there's a moment in time where we're going to say the supply chain bottle necks are easing i think it's going to vary we know the base effects with the initial spikes are largely in the rearview mirror but the improvement to the supply chain were at the beginning part of that but for certain production operations, that is going to be a long time coming >> so, i guess to dig into all of this more, what you've noted is a correlation around bond yields you see the fed signaling it's going to move forward pulling back some of the monthly bond buying where do you see rates going

and is there a point where that changes or inverts >> the correlation between bond yields and stock prices has been positive for much of the past 20 years. just about a month ago it dipped back to negative territory it's back in positivatoriatory i put on twitter a long-term look to the mid'60s. you had a very different regime from the mid'60s to the late 1990s where, for the most part, that correlation was negative consistently and that's because the economy was more subject to supply shocks the 20 years leading to this year was the opposite. we were more in a disinflationary or deflationary regime and in that kind of inenvironment, bond yields and stock prices are together.

if we move into a sustainable period of a negative correlation, i think that would be indicative of a regime thift shift. and neither tapering nor rate hikes is the elixer for what ails global supply chains. and they know that the rug would be to shorten the time frame for supply to catch up that certainly is a potential risk >> people are definitely wondering what monetary policy has to do with shipping lanes from shanghai to l.a great stuff as always. have a great week. >> well, let's get to retail today's september retail sales report rising against the dow estimate of .2%.

fears of supply constraints still remain joining us now, senior analyst, ike. thanks for being with us this morning. probably worth noting we're talking nominal numbers. how much did that contribute to the data point and how much is it contributing to the sales >> i think when we look at the numbers, the consumer's healthy. consumer spending is there their balance sheet is strong. that's not really what the concern is right now we've known that for a while and discretionary's been under pressure and the question is why. it's costs and supply chain.

it's are we going to get products here on time? how much is it going to cost what kind of inflation are we talking about? we're seeing a cognitive decade high it's costing supply chain. not the strength of the consumer >> so, who's going the get the goods on to the store shelves? >> that's the big question is how are these companies going to guide their holiday i think you've had a couple come outalready and said we're goin to have to leave sales on the table. that's now starts to put in perspective we're going to have potential negative revisions in space, to some degree, starting q4 and our belief is these supply chain head winds are going to last through the first half of next year and it's going to be a

problem when we lack stimulus and robust demand we've never seen with companies with margin rates. >> you sound pretty bearish on some of these retail names is there anything you like, buck the trend or do you steer clear of everything for the time being? >> i think we're concerned on the near term set up i think there's not a lot of reason to run a runnout. however, thesepressures we're talking about are transitory and to the point we made to start the conversation, the hegts of the consumer is very strong. i believe there's going toby a rally in this is group again i think you have to be patient i think we have more single digit pe than a long time where we could see a lot of multiple expansion, capri, gap, victoria secret. these are dirt cheap names we

feel pretty good about earnings power. >> i think it was your note today, right, where you say walmart is best positioned and your proprietary price working shows they already accelerated their pricing. how kump common an event is that >> i think some of the companies are looking to take price for sure a good example is to take it back to soft lines would be levi's and they're talking about midsingle digit inflation, which is cotton, logistics they believe they can take aur to offset the pressure companies are in a better position, given the strength at the top line and demand. so, that's another key positive. >> you've seen a major change in fashion trends thanks to covid as well. ike, thank you for being with us happy friday

here's a look at our road map for the rest of the hour we'll break down the latest after the break. >> and with the private sector-back vaccine on the way, what does it mean for bds? >> and finally the ceo of honeywell. stay with us at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner.

it has been a big week for bank earnings. g goldman sacks the latest starting with the goldman number >> absolutely, david beat elevated expectations as their capital markets division delivered again. and revenue was up 26% year over year the beat was led by investment banking revenue of 3.7 billion ahead of a forecast of 2.9 and impressively up quarter over quarter too. strong quarter last quarter. mna advisory drove the beat. up 25% year over year. the question is how long that will continue. equities, revenue was 3.1 billion. but also contained a significant amount of financing revenue.

that was flat year over year when others were down. and as expected after an extraordinary print last quarter,all beit behind forecast and while they continue to grow and making a significant impact. 2 billion and that was ahead of forecast the call starts later for this quarter at 10:30 a.m. and we look forward to that >> i know you as well to see what is said by david solomon. but just to put it in perspective, during three quarters they've made more money than they ever had in a full year with 17.7 billion so far in net earnings >> unbelievable. and morgan stanley said yesterday they were 10% ahead of 2019's full year with one quarter to go themselves i think that really sums up what an amazing period covid and the pandemic has been if you've been

an investment banker the big question going forward is whether or not the retail banks will start to enjoy a period that's positive for them too. in a way the last year or so hasn't yet a big part of that being rates and loan growth. we got a glimpse yesterday of the type of bottom line reaction you can get if that scenario plays out. those are the three winners. morgan stanley, goldman sachs and bank of america. the president saying a covid-19 vaccine mandate could been the way for a private sector fobuneeseas what does that mn r siss ♪ earl: - hey barista: - good morning, earl!

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time for our etf spotlight we're checking out the ticker xlc. down for the month, in part due the largest holding which is facebook stock is down double digits as the fallout from the

whistle-blower continues and moving to the tactical underperform list. now almost 15% off the highs they're talking about a risk to advertising as you have inflation, less money for your ad budget and the apple engagement risk they say is underappreciated >> i think that become as key point in terms of the inability to track people. having to track in on the new forms of ios don't misthe ceo of honeywell. we'll talk supply chains, vaccine mandates and a lot more. [crowd cheering] how's sanchez looking? with your qb's increased spin rate, any pass with a launch angle of at least 43 degrees puts sanchez in the endzone. you a data analyst or something? an investor in invesco qqq. a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations

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welcome back here is your cnbc news update at this hour. a british lawmaker is doead afte he was stabbed multiple times. he was meeting with constituents when he was attacked a 25-year-old man has been arrested in southern afghanistan suicide bombers attacked a shiite mosque during prayers the islamic state has admitted responsibility for that attack and is suspected in today's massacre cnn is reporting that former president bill clinton is in a california hospital's intensive care unit after a urinary tract infection spread to his blood stream he's in the icu for privacy and safety and not because he needs intensive care they expect he'll be home soon and many foreign travellers

will again be able to enter the u.s. after months of covid restrictions a new normal but nice to be able to welcome people back >> always. thank you. some news on covid-19 booster shots last night hi, meg. >> hey, morgan well, last night the fda advisory committee voting onthal booster. just for the groups cleared for the pfizer vaccine and they're meeting to talk about j & j's booster. it's the only single shot vaccine out there. the question from the committee that they've gotten so far this morning concern the fact that the two-dose regimen in another trial looked very good and boosted efficacy up over 90% and they're wondering why isn't this

a two-shot to start with and the flexibility to boost at two or six months based on the own individual risk level. this will continue today we'll see the vote close to 3:00 this afternoon interestingly they're not narrowing it to the groups we've seen for pfizer and moderna. we'll see if they end up narrowing it down or if it's a boost for people over 18 that got the vaccine. and later this afternoon they're going to discuss interesting data about what happens when you give a different type of booster than you got for the original series we saw a hint of the data earlier this week that suggested getting an boost might do you better than getting a j and, j boost. we're going to have to see how everybody interprets this and whether it shakes out to recommendations because the committee is not being asked to vote on that to discuss it a lot more news coming to you.

>> we're looking forward to it thank you. i sat down with honeywell chairman for a wide-ranging discussion ahefd of the honeywell connected form taking place next month they're in a quiet period ahead of earnings next friday. industrial software, vaccines and more >> they're reopening has been a bit more sudden and maybe extreme than we anticipated. i think a lot of our digical technologies are more in demand than we've seen before but it's not just limited to that a lot of our product solutions are in high demand whether it be some of our building technologies, offerings, aerospace offerings, warehouse a automation offerings, the demand is extremely high and probably exceed our wildest expectations.

on the flip side is we're facing fairly substantial supply chain challenges that span both the materials, the people and freight and logistics side it's almost the opposite extreme of what we saw in 2020 in 2020 we had a huge demand issue, which was very painful. here we have incredible demand but frankly spending more of our time trying to solve some of the supply chain challenge >> in terms of the supply chain challenges, i mean just stepping back and looking at the world and all of the different grid lock that's playing out right now and you mentioned connected warehouses for example transportation and freight is in a very special position given some of the transportation bottle necks the demand for your products, is that being spurred and specifically the technology products and software offerings is that being spurred by everything across the globe and

the need for more data one of the things particularly important for us to digitize customers and honeywell itself, we have greater visibility to be more precise about how to deal with the supply chain challenges it doesn't mean you're going to avoid them it does mean you can be more pinpoint and precise in actions that we take >> as we see recoveries happen across different industries honeywell touches, you think 2022 is the year of normalization? do we see inflationary pressures begin to retreat do we start to see supply chains normalize? more air travel? >> well, i certainly think the last one is going to be true we're going to see more air travel as the world becomes more and more vaccinated, we see air travel picking up. and we see that slowly, not particularly, as it delta

variability is becoming a bit more in our rearview mirror. we think that's definitely going to be picking up as we move forward and certainly into 2022. in terms of inflationary pressures and supply chain challenges, we certainly hope that gets better in the second half of 2022 but i don't think that's something that's going to get resolved here. and we think that's probably a little bit of a longer term, that -- we -- our best estimate is we're going to see some relief in that second half of 2022 it's acute and we're going to have to work through a level of reinvestment to make sure we get through some of the capacity challenges >> you just announced vaccine mandates on the heels of president biden's executive

order. walk us through that process >> we follow all rules and regulation we're a major player for the u.s. government. we walked through there decision thoughtfully and carefully and we're going to support the executive order by president biden. it's really as simple as that. we want our employees to be in a healthy environment and we issued that -- passed through that executive order to our employees. >> how are you approaching it at honeywell, given the fact you have office space and factories too? >> we're inching back slowly we're very data oriented and driven we were back in a hybrid environment and we took a step back as the delta variant took over we anticipated more of a return to the office here in the november timeframe and obviously we're going to look at the data.

in terms of positivity rate, hospitalizations and so on we want to bring back our employees in a healthy and safe manner we're going to inch back into that environment i do think the longer we don't see each other -- some of the relationships and affinity for employers fray and when we had a relatively brief period of time when we were able to bring employees back in july, people really loved it. they wanted to see colleagues and welcome in many new employees we brought in that have never even met their boss you know, our data shows the people who were brought in during this covid period, unfortunately, the atrition rate is substantially higher than some of the longer tenured employees and that's understandable because they don't have the network and all

their managers do their best to connect. and it's tougher to do that in a video meeting than in person >> that's part of our conversation right there honeywell raised the outlook for business jet deliveries. and when we did talk about business travel in general, he believes that will come back on a commercial scale as we look into 2022. but private business aviation right now and you've heard me talk about it before and the companies that are benefitting from that, you are seeing some of the increased orders in the meantime and the other thing i would note is in general, honeywell made this big bet on industrial software that has meant internal r&d, and investment everything from the forge platform to quantum computing, as they merge that business with cambridge right now. but in general, industrial software, in part because of covid and what it's meant for

the digitization of everything is in focus for the sector overall. you have the emerson tech deal announced earlier this week. it goes back to the stuff you had to say about data and software and about the role that is going to increasingly play when it comes to things like supply chain and supply chain management >> it's an interesting mix of supply chain and delta's adding new flights to panama, interestingly enough they have a nice mix of two big buckets of activity. >> i do. >> i thought we're in agreement. >> as always and we're going to stay on the topic, by the way. president biden standing his ground on those requirements thursday, remarking, quote, every day we see more businesses implementing vaccine requirements and the mounting data that shows they work. these comments are on the heels of several states pushing back

against the proposed mandate joining us to discuss is society for human resource management, johnny taylor. it's not as though it's an easy move for that many businesses. we're waiting for the labor department to implement the requirements >> it's scary for business right now. and we're worried about implementing this. there's a real challenge and we know we're confident we're going to lose employees we're at an interesting point where from a supply chain standpoint, we're going to have christmas gifts for our kids even if it's coming from the white house, we're going to leave. we're going to quit.

so, employers are concerned. they're concerned, then you have to enforce it and insure compliance that takes us away from the work we're trying to do politically this is not a political issue. it's very practical. we often say it's about policy, not politics the policy is creating real challenges for industry. >> right although at the same time many businesses, some voluntarily of course said from a safety perspective, if you want to come back, you have to get vaccinated because the other employees expect that would be the case, right? >> precisely but remember men of the people are saying listen, a number of our employees never had the luxury of working remotely distribution, health care. right in chicago if you believe what the empolice unions are saying right now 50% of them are simply not going to

become vaccinated no matter whathut -- and so the question is, practically speaking, what do you do if half your employees say we're not going to do this and they're not employees who have the option. they must work face to face. >> what does the law say you can do >> first of all, actually dish gree with johnny on this i don't -- i think there are probably many, many more workers who will feel safe and secure and want to come to work and will be more productive than the small minority that are complaining. many of these mandates have been put in place and very, very few people have left so, for example, the very first one, eastern methodist hospital has well over 99% vaccination rate we do at georgetown university and many other places, including our staff, who have to come to

work in the same way remember, this is not a mandate for a vaccine. this is a requirement from osha, which businesses are very used to to require a safe workplace and risking contracting a potentially dangerous or even deadly disease is just as hazardous as a workplace injury. it's not a vaccine mandate you can work remotely or get tested weekly. and so it's the employee's choice nobody's going to hold an employee down and say here's the jab. but we are going to encourage the employee we're going to get him or her time off and if they're totally opposed to it, then they can be tested every week butted most will want to be vaccinated and the law, by the way, absolutely is on president biden's side

he's not acting unilaterally he's actually acting with the explicit authorization of the congress under the occupational health act >> but i got to tell you -- i don't question legality of it. the courts will do it. i'm talking practically speaking so, while it's interesting we can say just test. who's going to pay for it? and it's not clear who's going to pay for it. so, to say to an employee who makes 10, 12, 15 bucks an hour to get tested, it's easier said than done and employee doesn't pay it, employers do and georgetown, sure but small and medium-sized employers cannot do that and if their employees refuse, there's a problem. >> there's also a problem if somebody comeins into work and

transmitts it and you have lot of people off work >> and this the tension. i don't disagree and there's tension. but practically speaking, you have 135 employees and 10 of them in the right positions say i'm not coming to work it's a lot easier said than done perhaps you have the ability to re -- not just replace them but you have large enough stabs where you can do them. but in small and medium-size employers -- >> which is why delta's case study is so interesting. they think a mandate is a very blunt instrument but we're going to have a surcharge on your health care plan of $200 a month and we'll see where that equilibrium is. how practical do you think that is >> we did that same thing here we've been talking about that. again, some people will do it.

everyone's forgetting before all of this, we were talking about being in the middle of a war for talent we have 10.9 million jobs or so open so, it's easy to say we don't really care. employees will have to make a choice i remain to be seen. i do think even our data suggests far more people threaten to quit than the ones who will do it i'm not the guy saying a quarter of your staff is going to quit but i'm saying it doesn't take a quarter to really impact your business >> you might lose more people if you don't do it because you're going to have a lot of people that will want to come to work and they'll want to know that everyone around them is vaccinated they're going to feel much more safe the data that we've done with polling is that by far the majority, the vast majority of

the employees prefer a mandate because they want everyone around them vaxnateded and safe and they're going to feel safer and more secure and it's good for the employer because you don't have people getting sick you don't have problems of even liability for transmission of virus within your workplace. this is a smart move on president biden's part >> listen, our data is saying the same thing >> i've got to cut you off because we're out of time. been an interesting interchange of ideas i have a feeling we'll revisit it as well but thank you both. >> thank you meantime, bitcoin briefly touching 60,000 this morning this as they eye the potential of bitcoin etfs. headed in the other direction? take a look at this. am i allowed to say this word or

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." major averages might be higher but shares of virgin galactic are plumbing right now space tourism company pushed the start of commercial service to the fourth quarter of next year. that's from the earlier guidance of late q3 but the company also changing the timetable for some of those milestones that must be met to

get to that point. so, unity 23 this was the revenue generating mission for the italian air force that was supposed to happen this month being pushed to next year, as well, as virgin ga galactic improving carrier and spacecraft aircraft. that is expected to last up to ten months and starting now because testing material issue it is worth noting this is separate from the recent investigation into a potential separate supplier issue. but the resequencing of these events underscores the virgin galactic safety first procedures guys, this disclosure for a company that is still largely prerevenue and speaks to the fact that it is really a tale of two suborbital space companies right now where these types of services are concerned, case in point, the fact that blue origin just earlier this week conducted its second successful commercial space flight with four passengers onboard to the edge

of space, including two paying passengers still has one more before this year is out. that was really seen as a win, especially since william shatner was onboard, a marketing win for that company so, really, the timing of all of this quite notable >> yeah, it's been a volatile stock price this year. you follow it closely. italian air force, what are they doing? >> so, it is a test flight technically for the company because they don't start these commercial, the commercial service until next year if all goes according to plan but revenue generating mission because they have members of the italian air force onboard for this mission that are going to be paying $600,000 a seat to go up and do research and training. >> i see >> so, in addition to the quote/unquote space tourism ticket holders for virgin galactic, they are also marketing tickets at a higher price for things like astronaut training and research and the

like >> of course, what would musk say. we need to spend more time trying to get to orbit and less time -- >> he likes to say that about everybody else >> yes that's nice to have some competition in the space, though in the meantime, do not miss the ceo of roblox next time on "techcheck" more "ua othsqwkn e street" is still ahead you see it. you want it. you ten-x it. it's that fast. if i could, i'd ten-x everything. like... uh... these salads. or these sandwiches... ten-x does the same thing, but with buildings. sweet. oh no, he wasn't... oh, actually... that looks pretty good. see it. want it. ten-x it. yum! if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity.

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it's been three years since we became legal in canada. frank hauleneds got a look at key stocks to watch in that sector tough time lately, frank >> absolutely. good morning to you. here in canada 95% of the cannabis sales are made in the recreational market compared to 6 60% in the u.s like this tokyo smoke store here in downtown toronto. dominated by cannabis flour and sale of prerolled joints filled with cannabis flower compared to vapes, edibles and even drinkables they only make up 20% of the market here in canada, but david cline sees those trends already

starting to change >> consumers coming into the space come in through drinks and edibles and possibly vapes so, as those new consumers come in instead of it being a small percentage of their consumption, it's likely to be a majority of their consumption. >> developing new strains is a real focus for all the canadian cannabis companies as they aim to enter the u.s. where they cannot currently sell. take a look research lab for canopy breed plants that yield high thc at a low cost last quarter, u.s. producers generated nearly three times the revenue that canadian producers did but miguel martin said they offer a more dynamic investment in cannabis. >> if you think medical cannabis is a thing, if you think there is a global economy out there, if you think regulated and compliance products matter, if you think ip and genetics and biosynthetics are a thing, you'd invest in a couple of the companies.

>> well, the valuation of canadian cannabis stocks can be tricky because in various stages of profitability and enterprise value to sales one method that is currently used by analysts. david, back over to you. >> frank, i'll actually take it. we heard so much about the competition that continues to persist from the black market in canada how real is that risk and how does it speak to some of the issues that may play out, for example, here in the u.s. as you see more and more states go through the legalization process. >> a very real risk. estimates that the illegal market is still a third to half of the business of cannabis in the u.s. and canada. the question is if you have a long-standing relationship, what are the inent centives to change the questions here are about safety, convenience and just plain legality some people, you would imagine would just want to continue their relationship they're in new york city you could have it delivered by a bike

other people enjoying a relationship and other people looking for a safe and bedded way to get into cannabis and the way the companies in u.s. and canada. >> frank holland, thank you. check on the markets as we wrap up the show all in the green and the s&p is 44.67. that's the level there about 0.7% david, every sector in the green for the s&p except for communication services that will do it for us "techcheck" starts now. happy friday and welcome to "techcheck" i'm john fortt and carl