2014 where for years the ibm management said they would earn $20, they were going to earn $20, they were going to earn $20, and finally came out in 2015 and 2016 and said, you know what it is really $10, and the stock went from 200 to 120 where it has been ever since. i suspect we're in the same mode right now with ibm that says they're going to earn $11 or $12 but the reality is half of that. >> we are going to see >> i would be curious on the call to see how they bridge that gap. >> i know you will be listening and we will be as well we'll continue the conversation soon i'm sorry we're short on time. jim, thank you for taking time and calling in that's jim chanos that does it for us on "the half." "the exchange" begins right now. great, great stuff, scott. congrats again it will be a fun week with a ton more interviews like that on tap. hi, everybody. i'll kelly evans bond yields are on the rise as

stagflation worries grow the june highs around 10.6%. how worried should equity investors be we will have the happenings from apple's events, this focused on air pods and macbooks. plus, to-the-moon edition of "rapid fire. it will be a wild season we will tell you what the street is saying about netflix, chipotle and even facebook let's start with the markets off the worst levels of the day. bob pisani with the numbers. >> hello, kelly. it has been a choppy, indeterminate day. the dow is down because disney had a downgrade over at barclays it was weak throughout the day but it has held up by a terrific performance by goldman sachs, following through with a terrific earnings report on friday s&p is in positive, nasdaq as well in positive territory looking at the sectors led

higher by energy still have the seven-year high on oil flattish today banks had terrific follow through on the earnings situation. normally banks tend to trade down immediately after earnings, not so in the last couple of days tech strong. health care continuing the lag for the last six weeks there's the energy sector to see what is going on there energy new highs here, not many new highs but most in the energy space. de'veon, apache, occidental not a new high but truist upgraded the stock, up about 4% finally, it is official. today head of proshares on talking about the new bitcoin futures etf that will be launching tuesday on the new york stock exchange. this invests in bitcoin futures contracts, not bitcoin directly. it is still a very, very important moment, kelly, for the etf community as well as the crypto community simeon hyman will be ringing the opening bell for proshares tomorrow around that event back to you. >> bob, because it will be a

busy week, normally it would get a ton of coverage but we have earnings to content with critics say if the sec was worried about protecting consumers, they would be protecting what is your response? >> it is simple. he has repeatedly said he has problems with bitcoin buying and selling directly bitcoin, pure bitcoin. the reason is he's concerned about fraud and manipulation on bitcoin exchanges and he has no regulatory control over that instead, he seems very interested in the idea of bitcoin futures etf because it is a regulated market. think about it in a futures contract you don't have to worry about somebody breaking in to some bitcoin exchange that's a russian cyber criminal stealing everything this solves a problem for gentzler he needs to show he is promoting the concept of financial innovation, but until he gets some regulatory control over the

bitcoin ecosystem it is very difficult for him to come out directly with a bitcoin etf. this is sort of half a loaf, but an important moment for the mustn't, kelly >> it certainly is, though we see bitcoin over 62,000 today, off the levels right now, bob. we appreciate it, bob pisani down at the nysc in the meantime, apple's latest product launch is kicking off right now and it could have implications for the chip business and competitors josh lip ton more with what to expect. >> reporter: kelly, the event is just getting under way, the ceo tim cook addressing the audience virtually there. what will be the big highlight of the show? reports suggest the company will introduce new high-end macbook pros running on apple's own chips instead of intel's processors the new models apparently include a new design, charger and displays in 14 inch and 16-inch sizes. the mac has been a winner for apple. more people look to the machines as they learned and worked from home during the pandemic the question is whether apple can keep the momentum going in

quarters ahead reports indicate apple has been hard at work on the next generation of the lower end air pods, too, so we're waiting to see if they make an official debut as well. kelly, back to you >> josh, we will see you again soon hopefully our josh lipton. the next guest says apple and other faang names is leading to transition in leadership in tech and other sectors, especially with bond yields doing what they are today. should investors resist the temptation let's welcome in the chief investment officer at the bonson group. technology is where you make the big gains in the long run. >> well, i think that there's a couple of different arguments there. i believe cyclically you have seen whole decades where technology made a ton of money and whole decades where it made no money we know what happened in the '90s and the decade following.

the nasdaq took 16 years to recovery some big tech names still haven't recovered from its 1999 pricing. so we want to look at it company by company, but across the whole sector there's been huge growth, both of earnings and of the multiple in much of the technology sector. financials and energy have been great performers for decades as well, but they've run into cyclical patches the financial crisis was the big one in financials, and energy has now had its big issue. i believe that's played out. i think that right now the bad news and then some was priced in, and there are a lot of opportunities in the energy sector that are going to make sense for more than just a couple of quarters >> tell me where those are are they in specific stocks or would people be find with kind of broad sector exposure what is the catalyst we are obviously seeing it already, ten years at 1.6%, financials have been strong performers in recent weeks do we need 2% on the ten-year? >> no, i do understand why a lot

of the big banks benefit from higher net interest margin, but if there's one thing we have seen with a lot ofthe financia sector it is that it is not nearly a net interest margin story. when you look at a company like jpmorgan, which we own and have owned for ten years now, it has grown its dividend 500% since the financial crisis, that's an investment bank. that's a trading franchise a company like goldman sachs, which we don't own, has absolutely no net interest margin exposure relative to their trading and their wealth management business, investment banking. so i think there's a lot of different ways to play financials, and the yield curve shape is one, but it is not the only one >> when you see industrial production miss like it did this morning, prices doing what they are, consumer sentiment weak, what do you make of stagflation and the fact energy is maybe doing well it is a bad thing. it slows the economy financial is doing well, but not

if the consumer balance sheet is looking not as good as we think because of the excess cash what happens if it is not as pleasant an environment as we thought a couple of months ago >> i think we look to look at the monthly economic data points on rolling three-month averages, and none really look that bad when we do that. some could get worse i'm concerned going into next year on business confidence, on industrial production, but particularly capex, that nonresidential fixed investment which is so crucial in gdp growth we basically got almost none of it in the years following the financial crisis, and in a couple of years following the trump tax cuts it really picked up a lot but i think that post-covid there's a question mark as to what the business investment world will look like i really do believe that we have the opportunity for an extension of this economic expansion but there's policy issues that kind of stand in the way there. >> yes >> i think the energy story is more of a value story around

mispricing basically, kelly, a lot of bad news that was fully priced in and a lot of good news that wasn't that's the type of thing we like to look for in investing >> so what if i said to you, give me the place to go in the market, david, where i don't want to be in technology, i don't want to be in high valuations i don't necessarily want to be in energy. maybe i'm a little nervous about financials so i'm ruling a lot of things out. is there anywhere i can go to, quote, unquote, protect myself >> sure. i will give you a sector answer even though we're not top-down investors. we are bottom-up pickers, and as you know biassed towards dividend growth. the one sector that is never the worst performing and never the best performing but i think always is in the middle ground of good fundamentals, relatively low valuations compared to other sectors is consumer staples. it also happens to be extremely noncyclical. people still buy laundry detergent, diapers, paper towels, a lot of the consumer food products regardless of economic activity. so if that's the setup, you

know, and the question, consumer staples are always that kind of, you know, not too hot, not too cold type of place to be there happens to be great dividend growing names when you look at pepsi, proctor & gamble, kimberly-clark, all names we own. >> the boring is beautiful kind of trade, if we want to call it that >> yes >> david, thanks so much we appreciate it today david bahnsen with the bahnsen we will speak with scott minerd about the feds next move and a little crypto. plus, facebook flirting with the best day in three months after posting the fifth week of losses, coming off the longest losing stream since march of 2020 that's coming up on "the exchange." this is "the exchange" on cnbc

retirement income is complicated. as your broker, i've solved it. that's great, carl. but we need something better. that's easily adjustable has no penalties or advisory fee. and we can monitor to see that we're on track. like schwab intelligent income. schwab! introducing schwab intelligent income. a simple, modern way to pay yourself from your portfolio. oh, that's cool... i mean, we don't have that. schwab. a modern approach to wealth management.

welcome back the yield on the ten year approaching june highs before pulling back a bit we're around 160 right now for more on where rates are headed, out to brian sullivan at the millken institute. guggenheim's global chief investment officer scott minerd

with brian >> scott minerd of guggenheim. brate to be back in person, by the way. thank goodness we're back here business travel is not over. great to see you, my friend. >> good to see you, too. >> niceties are over where is the yield on the ten year going and is bitcoin going to fall another 50%? nice to see you. >> thank you, brian. the easy questions, let's start there first. look, i think we need to have a longer perspective on bonds, and, quite simply, when you look at how lefrd the economy is our research shows that the fed can't raise rates much above 2% before the economy is going to stall out. if that's the case, historically the ten-year note and the overnight rate are always equal at the peak or at the height of a bear market. so pretty much you can think of a 2% ten-year note as being a cap. now the question is where is the floor, right >> have we seen the floor? >> i don't know. >> no? >> to be honest. >> rates could go lower.

>> oh, i think so, for sure. >> we just wrapped up a cnbc pro livestream thank you for doing that, by the way. i will make news for you, kelly. scott said he thought u.s. stocks could rise 20% in the next, what, year >> give it a year. >> i don't think i have heard you this bullish on equities >> you know, covid has strange effects on you look, if rates aren't going to go much higher than i think, if there is a fed put, a powell put, which i believe there is, that is we're not going to let things get too crazy in credit, we're going to hold things in, even if we are tapering, we will do whatever is necessary at the end of the day, a valuation of 5,000 on the s&p isn't crazy. so, you know, bull markets don't die of old age, right. they die of restrictive monetary policy, and we're a fair distance away from that 2% number i just talked about in terms of time. >> is it also just because there's -- there's no

alternative? i mean bonds are going to give nothing. >> i just got off a panel, and that was basically the theme you know, investors need something to give them a positive return. competing at a zero, you know, with cash at zero, you know, you have international investors who have negative interest rates putting capital into the united states you know, it has to find a home somewhere. >> it seems like such a ridiculous investing theory. it seems so smart and so weird at the same time, right? it is like you've got all of these geniuses at the conference, well, there's nothing else to buy so let's buy stocks >> remember back in the late '90s when we had the asian crisis >> yeah. >> right >> currency issues >> right, and the fed had to stop tightening, and then we --. >> long-term capital management. >> we had y2k, so the fed kept pumping liquidity into the system, and then we had a bubble in internet stocks, right. i mean we're living in that kind offa

of an age. >> is everything in a bubble >> not everything. >> you just said stocks are going up 20% >> i don't think stocks are in a bubble when you look at valuations i think baseball cards are, you know but things like sports memorabilia, there's crazy stuff going on out there in the area of collectibles. >> okay. i got to ask, i'm sure kelly wants to get in here kelly, jump on in. i have to ask about bitcoin. >> right >> you came out, you said it is going to fall 50%. people are like, scott minerd's head on a stick. you were right >> right >> it has now retraced back up to 61. are you making another call or are you out of the crypto game >> first off, i always like to own my mistakes, and we were long going into that we sold. it pulled back to where i thought it was, and i really after looking at it thought, you know, we are probably going to go lower well, we didn't. so we're not in. but, you know, the one thing i learned as a bond trader years ago is when you don't understand what is happening, get out of the market

so discipline tells me right now i don't fully understand this, but when you look at things like sheba coin, which back in february or march if you had invested $1,000 into sheba coin you would have $2.1 million today. >> $1,000 in march into sheba coin is $2.5 million today >> $2.1. i wish i had invested $100,000 >> how long can all of this last is the point i'm glad everybody is making money, it is fantastic >> right >> you have 56 people bidding on a house in los angeles, every one of them over asking price, all cash i mean the music is going to keep going for a while is what you are saying >> i think so. look, we had hpa, home price appreciation last year somewhere in the neighborhood of 18%, 19%. it is not going to turn on a dime >> well, listen, kelly, i'm going to put this on because you are one of the owners of the dodgers. it has been a rough two games,

nothing against atlanta, but down 0-2 you going to come back >> well, statistically we have a high probability of coming back. >> anyway, i will take it off because it makes my ears stick off. kelly, there you go. stocks are going up, no alternative. 20% gains. out of the bitcoin game. go blue. >> go blue >> this is a odgers' household brian, so we feel the pain scott, can i just ask you to specifically sort of tell us where you think interest rates are going? you said you think -- you do think they're going down from here >> well, i think ultimately we will go down i think right now the seasonals tell us there's seasonal pressure upward. a lot of people are trying to play this game of, you know, if you have to be in fixed income, buy short duration bonds, like three years or five years. that's exactly the place you don't want to be, right. if you are concerned about being, you know, overweight your duration target, be long, ten

year notes and buy less of them, but, you know, the place that's really going to get hurt as the fed starts to taper and ultimately if they begin to raise rates is that area that's called the belly of the curve between one year and ten years >> got it. >> by the way, i think, you know, next year we're talking about inflationary pressures today. by next year we may well be talking about deflationary pressures. so i'm not as bearish as everyone else. >> scott, one final conceptual question if i can. if it looks like there are supply-side constraints on the u.s. economy right now, how do we fix those and are fiscal and monetary stimulus making it worse, not better? >> wow, a lot of great questions there. a lot of information packed in there, kelly the first thing is that, you know, people confuse the fiscal stimulus issue with inflation. inflation is not the result of fiscal policy. it is the result of monetary

policy so, you know, we've had a lot of cash come into the system, but at the same time, you know, we have a lot of pressure downward on inflation, demographics, technology, high levels of dent. those are putting pressure downward so, you know, the supply chain issue will eventually fix the problem. it will take a while in the short run, yes, we will have -- you know, continue to have these price pressures christmas is not going to be a bargain basement price time. but by next year i think we will get this fixed, and then we will see downward pressures as all of this is reversed >> all right well, we appreciate it, scott. thank you for fielding the questions, if i may, in the baseball league. scott minerd with our brian sullivan out at the -- don't put the hat back on, brian it hurts it is too -- >> kelly, eric is a los angeles kid like me. this is kelly. we are also out there tonight or tomorrow good luck to eric and everybody. >> before we go, brian, i have

to say one thing you know tommy lasorda was a dear friend of mine. >> yes >> i want to give a piece of advice tommy gave to all of the fans, which is if you don't root for the dodgers you may not get into heaven. >> we can rest easy with that at least. scott and brian -- >> what about the angels >> thank you so much >> by the way, kelly, the vw ceo in an hour >> we will have more today and tomorrow still ahead, a new industry report raising red flags for next year's mortgage market. we have dire warning ahead we are monitoring the latest from apple's product launch. look at the shares don't often see this they turned positive a little bit, up half a percent right now. we will bring you more updates in a moment. stay with us

♪ i had a dream that someday ♪ ♪ i would just fly, fly away ♪ paola needs a parachute. so, salesforce customer 360 unites your marketing, sales, commerce, service, and it teams around her. so they can deliver a great experience from anywhere. ♪ (whistle) ♪ hey i'm joe montana. when you get to be our age, so they can deliver a great experience from anywhere. you have little patience for nonsense and inefficiency. after years of practice, you become a pro at pretty much everything. so when i qualified for medicare, i got with wellcare. wellcare is no nonsense. they're pros at putting everything together to make things easier. their plans include things like prescription drug coverage dental, vision, and hearing coverage. it just makes sense. ♪ ♪

yeah. do you want a medicare advantage plan that just makes sense? then be like joe montana and go with wellcare. wellcare can offer their members dental, vision, and hearing coverage to make things easier. it's a no brainer. go with a no-nonsense medicare insurance provider. call for a free wellcare guide today.

welcome back to "the exchange" everybody. dow is down 43 points. we were briefly positive by 32 it is only the major average in the red right now, down a tenth of 1%. s&p the up 10 points nasdaq is leading the way. sectors, looking at that before we move on consumer discretionary about 1% right now. health care one of the biggest laggards, down three-quarters of 1% let's look at home improvement and auto parts, why? they're hitting record highs every name here is up between 30% and 50% this year. oil and gas stocks continue to climb with several hitting new 52-week highs like apa, conocophillips, de'veon. diamondback up 1%. the ticker is faang and it is

outperforming the fang stocks. facebook is up 22% alphabet is up 62% amazon is only up 5% over to leslie picker for a cnbc update hey, kelly here is what is happening. in greece three activists protesting human rights abuse in china disrupted the flame-lighting ceremony for the 2022 beijing olympics. police detained the protesters who climbed the fence to enter the grounds where the ceremony took place they were protesting the treatment of muslims in china's northwest region meanwhile, in italy police used tear gas and a water cannon to break up a sit-in at a port today where several hundred dock workers were protesting the government's mandatory covid-19 health pass. new rules were introduced last week requiring all workers either show proof of vaccination, a negative covid-19 test or recovery from a recent infection. new york city is testing its response plans for a chemical or

biological attack. beginning today until october 29th, the department of homeland security along with researchers and city agencies will deploy nontoxic gas on five different days at about 120 locations across the city. on the news, a look at how the demonstration works tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern i for one will be tuning in because i think this whole thing is absolutely fascinating, kelly. >> yeah, terrifying, bizarre, creepie and yet necessary. >> very. >> it is just 21st century leslie, thanks star power and a strong slate for netflix. chipotle poised to beat expectations and a security company that can weather the supply chain storm all coming up in today's bullish earnings edition of "rapid fire." stay right there

what if you could have the perspective to see more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley.

welcome back, everybody. let's catch you up on a couple of stories that should be on your radar it is time for "rapid fire." and we're looking at bullish calls ahead of earnings. i am excited about earnings season here some break down the calls is miller tabak's managing director here alongside cnbc's very own kristina, and michael

santoli at the nysc. the first topic is another price hike on netflix ahead of earnings tomorrow. ubs reiterating the buy rating and raising the price target to $720 the firm expects subscriber growth to meet the own guidance thanks to a ramp-up. shares of the pop just shy of 20% in the last three months christina, this is more of a "squid games" call although it helps. >> the amount of times people have mentioned it over the past two weeks is incredible. talking about the company as a whole, ubs was bullish on this but web bush a week ago was the operates saying competition is incredibly fierce, content like "squid games" i know cost $21.4 million to make and they're making much, much more than that on the entire series, but overall this new content is going to cost a lot. it could eat away at their margins. the other thing too is the cost of netflix compared to its competitors.

just yesterday i was debating should i renew apple tv at $4.99 a month. netflix is more than that. as we go forward more people return to work, return to doing things, are we going to -- is the childreurn rate people are to switch so they can stream "ted laso" and watching that entire series and getting rid a month from now >> i think the main debate seems to be is too much -- not too much priced in but is so much good news priced in, can they clear the bar. >> that's part of the concerns i mean, you know, earlier coming out of 2020, the stock had been stuck in a sideways range for a long time. it broke out, kind of that 550 to 575 range, it took off. that was a great on a technical basis, everybody loved the stock. it really helped gain a lot of momentum however, it has lost some of the momentum last week we had a real nice week in the stock market good news on the stock, and yet the stock actually closed lower

on the week. even today the 1% gain given the news out this week, you know, over the weekend, you would think the stock would be doing better looking at some of the charts, we refer to it as a mac d chart, a momentum chart, tells you that it seems to be rolling over a little bit we need to be careful here going forward. it has had a great run i do think some of it, a lot is priced in. >> mike santoli, what would you make of the valuation, netflix at 635 today obviously it overshot the price target, up by 720 now. >> you had to be pretty aggressive, how you want to describe the valuation, put it in a target. ubs is talking about 37 times 2025 free cash flow to tell you how far you have to stretch, but it hasn't mattered necessarily in the long term in terms of how the company has performed and the stock has performed. my read on how the shares have behaved recently is you came out of that sideways period just at the moment when every other competitor took a shot you knew what traction those

services did and didn't have it didn't seem to make an enduring dent in netflix, you know, subscriber trend even though they missed on one quarter and it was fine. netflix is the incumbent and they are tv right now. so what do you pay to participate in that? i don't know, but i do think that the market is basically saying they've weathered a lot of the threats it is not so much what to come >> "squid game" reportedly generating almost $8900 million in value for them, but according to ubs netflix has 40 of the top streaming titles so more than just that hit. next up, piper is reiterating chipotle up. they're citing increasing store sales and monthly sequential growth as reasons they expect chipotle, going so far to call it the top recovery recommendation it is down 4% in the past month, currently trading around 1845. piper says the 4% drop is an attractive entry point they offered a caveat saying

store-level profit margins are difficult to predict because of inflation and the labor shortage mike, uber and chipotle, their persistence has been phenomenal. >> chipotle was considered to be a winner in pandemic times as well, so now it is a recovery play it has this rare combination others have been like that look, for a while disney was given credit for being both, and i think it does happen it is very tough to, again, get your arms around this valuation relative to peers, but they have a rare kind of set of advantages there, which is, one, they never were the lowest cost for customers and never paid the least for labor. so it is not as if they necessarily have to come off those lows and condition both workers and customers for the new environment. they also have a lot of head room in terms of adding new stores that's undeniable. so it has been really, really hard to fight this move even though the stock is chronically expensive. >> matt, chipotle is -- you know, we are talking about this

$2,600 price target. does it make sense to you? like mike was saying a moment ago, does it matter? we call it momentum stock in the sense it is not really about, you know, the numbers per se it is just about their continued ant t ability to grow and operate and take share >> yes, it is not cheap, there's no question, but they are growing earnings, 50% growth each of the last years, unbelievable they won't be able to keep it up, but let's face it. it is one of the great home runs people, we kind of forget what happened in 2016 and 2017, they were flat on their backs with a big problem. brian came in and did an unbelievable job turning the company around i think one of the things that mike hinted at was this issue that they don't really have competition. there's a lot of ones that are similar but not the same mcdonald's has a lot of competition in terms of wendy's or whatever. really unique product here and people love it me personally, i get it delivered at home. it is better than most delivery

food >> i was going to say it is better than what i can cook at home, too. i was going to ask if you would be a buyer of the shares here? >> yeah, you know, like anything else it has had a decent run here so you got to be a little bit careful but i think that this one, if anything, we look towards -- i'm a little worried about the broad market in near term >> yes >> you always see a year-end rally and i think it will be one that will continue to be fine. >> let's move from a well-known name to one that is less so. it is fortune brands, not the clothing company upgraded the home and security to outperform saying the investor sentiment is too negative, supply chain fears are overblown and they're well positioned thanks to the hot housing market that said, they lowered the price target by $5 a share to $109 it is currently around $96 the stock has been roughly flat and reports results next week. christina, definitely a less familiar name. >> it is a less familiar name, but they seem to have quite a few popular brands according to one note we are

talking about with rbc, they said if anything they will be making their designs simpler, which would make automation a lot easier maybe it is a reflection of the 1980s style that is coming back even in furniture, but i think it is interesting the revenue climbed over 100% just in the last decade or so. they have continuously bought back shares, too so that helped with anybody that's owning the company right now and the price target that rbc is putting -- or target to $109 from $114 prior to. but i think maybe it is for the panel. i was thinking about this. are we too negative when we keep talking about supply chain issues because it was highlighted in the report >> sure. >> we become too negative given fears around supply chain issues is it something we could apply to many other companies across the board? maybe it is better for matt or mike >> i do think it is going to be one of the questions for earnings week. i want to talk facebook as we have to move along here, but the companies that are able to perform well in the environment will get extra benefit

the ones that can't, there will be a question of kind of their ability to operate more broadly. as i mentioned, let's hit facebook before we have to go. credit suisse is bullish ahead of the earnings next week saying advertisers will stick with the social network, reiterating outperform saying they expect better than expected ad revenue growth with everything going on. facebook has 10 million advertisers overall, accounting for nearly $30 billion in revenue. the stock is down 8% on the month amid whistleblower reports, outages, regulatory concerns the "wall street journal" reporting it is showing signs of recovery mike, it is up about 3% today. what do you make of it >> look, there's $120 billion in expected ad revenue going to facebook that probably doesn't have an obvious place to go. that's been the story for a while. that's a resilient source of demand for the company it trades, the stock does now, at a market multiple no more premium, despite the fact they have a great growth rate to be real skeptical about the

stock i think from these levels you have to think it is a new kind of microsoft lost decade deal where regulatory threats, the fact they are losing teams, the fact that the ad targeting stuff is going against them, but it has been -- you know, the top line has not taken a break in terms of growth. in some quarters in fact it seems they've almost wanted not to show as much effortless growth as they have for political purposes >> yeah, exactly so with that in mind, matt, we have satalked some fortune brans now talking facebook either one of those two stocks, facebook in particular, is that one you would be an owner here >> well, i mean one of the things is it is up to portfolio manager's analysis to say people can't afford not to be in the stock. i have to say it is disconcerting, because look what is happening people are leaving -- you know, teenage girls and stuff, it should be oa bigger problem tha it is. but the thing i'm looking at on the stock, it has been rock

solid all year long, whether it be regulatory issues or whatever start to kick in, if it breaks below the 200-day moving average you want to stand aside and let the thing come down because it has been an important support level for the entire year. >> you do know off the top of your head, matt? we are around $335 right now >> geez, looking at my screen right here, i don't know it. >> you can tweet it. >> i will. okay it is at $318. >> awesome i appreciate it. it is not a pop quiz or anything just curious we are at $335 200-moving average day is about $318 so we have about $17 to play with in there before we hit a level that would be a key support or lack thereof. thank you, guys. i appreciate it in this bullish edition of "earnings rapid fire." sticking with one of the short bets ahead of the companies

earnings on wednesday, heads are moving lower you can catch this show by listening or following "the a bk aomt.dcast. wereacin men i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. that's why td ameritrade designed a first-of-its-kind, personalized education center. oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. so it's like my streaming service. well except now you're binge learning. see how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from td ameritrade. visit tdameritrade.com/learn ♪

♪ ♪ visit tdameritrade.com/learn ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

welcome back to "the exchange." shares of ibm taking a big turn lower midday, down 1.7% right now, this after noted short teller jim chanos told scott wapner that he has a sizable bet against the company. ibm reports results wednesday. chanos doesn't trust its numbers. >> ibm is supposed to earn almost $11 this year for the trailing 12 months they've earned less than $9. but the really fascinating thing from our perspective, if you look at ibm's operating earnings and add their ip royalty stream and tax it at a normal 21%, the actual earnings are $6

so you have this almost $5 spread between what ibm is really earning and what they claim they hope to earn on a quote, unquote, adjusted basis this year. this is just more financial engineering that this company is doing. >> again, that's jim chanos talking about ibm. now, we can't talk chanos and shorting stocks without mentioning his infamous bet against tesla. the firm still has a small position, he said about 1% of the holdings he said, quote, we are still batting our heads against the brick wall tesla up 3% today, now up 23% this year and they report results on wednesday as well a big day shaping up for jim chanos on that front coming up, the latest details from apple's product event, but a lot of news about their chips in particular and the stock has turned higher and luke capital's gene munster will tell us how air pods could help with your stpoure. uh-oh. that's next.

you have the best pizza in town and the worst wait times. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire this is wealth. matching your job description. ♪ ♪ this is worth. that takes wealth. but this is worth.

and that - that's actually worth more than you think. don't open that. wealth is important, and we can help you build it. but it's what you do with it, that makes life worth living. principal. for all it's worth.

welcome back a lot of -- you can see shares turning higher after it began. they announced new versions of air pods let's get out to josh lipton for

the latest. >> reporter: let's start with the mac news all new macbook pro a beast of a machine. a 16-inch model and for the first time a 14-inch model, reimagined in every way. amazing battery life, the company claims, extraordinary display quality, a new thermal design meaning a quieter design. these machines are powered by big new brains as well a new apple chip called the m1 pro, a game changer apple says the company's chip guru says 70% faster, in fact, than the m1, its predecessor. apple also introduced a second chip called the m1 max, more powerful, the largest chip apple says in the ever-bit industry leading. we know apple has been transitioning the mac line to its own chips away from intel processors, saying it benefits a tighter integration of software and hardware

$1,999 for the 14-inch model apple announces new third generation air pod, new design, wireless charger for $179. hitting store shelves next week. apple's entry level air pods now cost $129. air pod analysts think probably about 5% of total company sales. back to next guest says this is all about the mac and how it will dwriv capital at the company. return of the mac? >> right on, kelly today was all about apple flexing their tech muscle reminding people in a the mac is absolutely whack these m 1, pro and m 1x chips going into the miest end macbook pros they are expensive machines. but they have got beast like performance. there is an insight beyond that which is that this technology that they start with the highest end of course makes its way to the broader mac family over

time and i think that that is really important that apple keeps that sharp edge they are not taking anything for granted as the work and learn from anywhere theme is going to continue to play out i think for one, two, three, five years down the road so the mac is back, as you said. i think they are bringing people optimism around what the product performance is going look like for the next to few years. >> i wish we could play the song but tell me why you think the shares popped here. >> i think it's just an understanding that the mac business, which has miss forically been a flat business before the pandemic for years it would be up a few percent, down a few percent. let's take away the last year and a half and consider that spike unsustainable. but i think shares moved higher because investors are getting increased confidence that next year could be an up year for the

mac. of course, huge comps they are goc going to be facing i think it could grow 10%. most investors think it is going to be flattish i'm more optimist sick but continue to take confidence with what's going on with this accelerating digital transformation, the work and learn from anywhere. i think that plays into the stock moving higher. >> what's going on with airpods? they are announcing innovation the journal rumored they would involve things about signature up straight and health fee viewers we currently associate with the watch and with the phone. did we get that today? how significant are thebreakthroughs >> what we got was entry level airpods. different spatial audio, a slightly different design. the price went up by 13% they are going to sell as many as they can for the holiday. i think it is an example that

apple has pricing leverage i want to get to the substance of this comment about where these products can go longer term airpods -- the ear is a huge opportunity. if you take, when it comes to health and wellness and tech, i guess i have to rewind to my fifth grade biology course and remember that the ear is a great place, has a thinner membrane in it, which creates an opportunity to take blood pressure, potentially, your temperature. there are other things that they can gather, information they can gather that's what the "wall street journal" was hinting to. these are patents that apple has filed for years, around that use case so whether it is those health markers, whether it is as simple as posture, it's a gray example of taking an entry point around music and really expand it into what is a hearables cat goermt i think there is still a lot more they can do around air pod in the years to come. >> boy, have they expanded it.

$200 price target gives plenty of room for growth thank you for joining us with your thoughts to the. >> thank you. >> gene munster with loop. still ahead, upbeat home builder sentiment in october are higher rates going the derail that? we will have the latest figures next this flag isn't backwards it's facing this way because it's moving forward just like the men and women who wear it on their uniforms and the country it represents.

they're all only meant to move one direction which is why we fly it this way on the flanks of the all-new grand wagoneer. moving boldly and unstoppably forward.

♪ i see trees of green ♪ ♪ red roses too ♪ ♪ i see them bloom ♪ ♪ for me and you ♪ ♪ and i think to myself ♪ ♪ what a wonderful world ♪ a rich life is about more than just money. that's why at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner so you can build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner.

welcome back, everybody. the home builder etf climbing 1.3% today after sentiment came in high this month despite a forecast that mortgage rates are heading up diana olick is here to dig into the numbers for us >> kelly, strong buyer demand appears to be outweighing a lot of the hurdles home builders have been facing builder confidence in single family building rose anything above 50 is considered positive the builders are having major

supply chain issues and higher costs for land labor and materials. but they are still modeling models and signing contracts sales expectations in the next six months increased three points to 84 and buyer traffic rose four points to 65 now, the builders' chief economist warned affordability is getting squeezed especially as interest rates rise the mortgage bankers association released the 2022 forecast and predicted the 30 year fixed would rise to 4% by the end of the year from 3% causing a 62% drop in refinancing next year. purchase loan volume already surfaced refi volume in the third quarter of this year, that's hitting companies like rocket, which did 88% of this is volume in refi stock the is down 18% for the year more competition among lenders could be good news or buyers as they have more negotiating power

on rates. >> that's all well and good but everyone is talking about zillow what do you think is going on here did they end up with too much inventory? >> no. that's not the issue it is again supply chain it's what we keep talking about instantly. in i buyer programs they buy the house from you at a slight discount you don't have to fix anything they then do the renovations they are willing an operational backlog for renovations for supply chain and labor issues and they don't want too take on anymore. i talked to the ceo of red fin he said they are seeing the same supply chain issues but said we are wide open for business i got a comment from open door they also said they are still open as well supply chain hitting some others harder than others. >> hitting their shares, down 8.5% by ana olick on all things housing today. that does it for "the exchange," everybody thanks for your time "power lunch" starts right now

yes, indeed, it does welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. let's give you a peek at what's on the menu. the race to the bottom little love on wall street for cable stocks growth slowing, competition rising how should you invest in a sector facing a growing number of challenges? plus bitcoin's big week. prices are soaring the first bitcoin putts etf is about to start trading should investors jump in or is it buyer beware. volkswagen's ceo will join us to discuss the chip crisis, low inventory, the ev push, and elon musk's surprise appearance on a vw conference call. a check on the markets the dow is down a 55 we were briefly positive the s&p hanging on to an eight-point gain the nasdaq up 92 points or