>> the breakout in bank of america is so real post-earnings the stock is going well above 50 stock is cheap, business is doing fantastic. merrill lynch franchise is the best >> helps rates are going up. 164 we are knocking on the door today. i mentioned the kind of day we are having in the stock market, closing highs for the dow and s&p. we will see if it holds. thanks for watching. we will see you tomorrow "the exchange" is now. thank you very much, scott hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. the dow hit a record high about half an hour ago, the s&p above its closing high as well here is what is ahead on "the exchange." legendary investor paul tudor jones sounding the alarm on inflation, saying it could be worse than originally thought. this as the ten-year yields jumped earlier today why do stocks keel rallying? is paypal courting pintrest? the two companies holding merger

talks. why it could make sense for both sides. in "rapid fire" netflix is sliding, facebook is rebranding and retailers are panic buying we begin with a continued march higher for stocks. bob pisani has the numbers today. bob. >> the key point, kelly, is we are at a new closing high. if we close right here, it is a new closing high 34,35 was the old closing high for the s&p 500. it was back on september 3rd we are about three points over that let's see if we can make that but it is quite a move up, helped by a number of very big sectors. most importantly, we have had the banks reporting. last week and this week, those banks have had generally good numbers and, more importantly, stock prices for the banks have been moving up since the earnings season. that's usually not what happens. usually you see selling after the earning season comes out, but it is not what is going on we are hitting new highs all over the place in the bank sector fifth third, the super regional

banks, the heart of the earning season because they control a lot of business in the middle part of the country. key corp bank of america, of course, one of the big money center banks at a new 52-week high, leading the new high list. some of the cyclicals also at new highs, some of the aerospace and defense names like l3 harris, northrop grumman, some of the small smattering of names like mosaic hitting 52-weeks high business is excellent at home depot and costco, o'reilly doing well, lowe's doing well. again, all 52-week highs want to mention bitcoin. again, the bitcoin futures etf that launched yesterday, excellent volume on that by the way. i didn't talk much about that, but 25 million shares changing hands yesterday in the pro shares bitcoin strategy etf. we will do well north of that. of course, bitcoin hit another record, on track for 35 million potential shares for that. you see bitcoin hitting a new move on the upside

kelly, what is going on here is earnings are continuing to come in strong. i think the one point of concern that i have, we can discuss in the next hour, is estimates for the fourth quarter, which is what matters now for stock prices, have stopped rising significantly and that's a little bit of a problem when you have stock prices going up and earnings estimates on the flat side that's a little bit of a warning side for the markets we will talk more about that in the next hour. kelly. >> bob, looking forward to it. thank you, sir bob pisani at the nyse with the dow hitting a record high and s&p trading above its closing high, all coming despite the yield on the ten year climbing today and a sinister inflation warning from billionaire paul tudor jones on "squawk box. listen >> there's a combination of structural and cyclical forces that right now are all rolling in the same direction. to say that inflation can be much worse than what we feared >> and fed governor christopher waller warning if inflation

doesn't cool by year-end a, quote, more aggressive policy response than just tapering may be warranted in 2022 are investors paying up for stocks at their own peril? joining me is david katz, chief investment officer at matrix advisers it makes me wonder if the inflation talk is hot air because the market is behaving as if it is not worried about it >> last month the market was looking at all of the negatives. this month it is looking at the positives. we think inflation is definitely picking up we think it is more than transitory, however, we don't think it will stay at a very hot level. we think it stabilizes under 3.5 pirs with it under 3.5% it is generally a good environment for the stock market we don't think inflation is going to derail the stock market we do think the fed probably is going to have to be a little bit more aggressive than they had wanted to be, but the market should be able to sustain that >> would it be bullish, david, for stocks if the fed either tightens more quickly or raising interest rates sooner because investors are worried that they are going to overheat?

>> we don't think so we think there's so much excess liquidity in the market and so many people are borrowing that we fear when the fed does start to raise rates that the market could pull back some so we don't think, you know, when the fed does start to pull back it is going to be a bullish sign we think the market is going to be able to navigate through it, but there are definitely speculative areas of the stock with hot money and that hot money will cool when rates go up >> do you think as a long-time market participant, it feels like another chase, it being on into year-end? after the extraordinary year we had where we started with the meme stock, the renaissance, whatever we want to call it, the rise of the meme stocks have had huge retailer participation, finally had a 5% pull back and we have come roaring back and we have about six weeks left in the year so it is hard not to see people just chasing this thing higher, don't you think? i wonder where it leaves us come turn of the year >> we agree with that.

seasonally, november, december have generally been very good periods many there's still this tremendous liquidity. we think the earning season will be touch and go. there will be a lot of disappoints, but by and large we think the market will be to the upside by end of the year. we agree the more upside you have in the next month or two will make 2022 a little tougher. we think next we're will probably regress to the mean, like a 9% year rather than the solid year you are having right now. >> yeah, only a 9% year. let me get some of your picks. we talked in the past about financials obviously interest rates are helping on that front today. you like names in consumer staples which our guest earlier this week said could be a place to go if you want a little bit of a beneficiary from the environment that we're in, a sector that's often overlooked you also have picks like dickinson, sysco, viacom and verizon, verizon maybe having more risk than usual, trading at

almost a two-year low. tell me why the stocks screen well for you >> we like them all on valuation and very good intermediate outlooks in terms of verizon they had a better-than-expected earnings today. it is a 4.9% yield and the fees of about 10 over the last six years it sold at 12. we think it is real cheap and their business is getting better in terms of dickinson and sisco, very strong businesses, better-than-expected market, selling in the market. we think sisco is one of the more overlooked and one of the better hybrid place because they can accommodate people staying home and getting back to the office m & t bank had a good quarter today, solid outlook, making an acquisition that should close in this quarter and the stock has good upside. they will start buying the stock back it is very leveraged to rising

interest rates >> yeah, well, some great stats to rattle off there. appreciate you always having it on the top of your head and joining us with your thoughts. thank you. >> have a great day. >> david katz. speaking of rates, 20 years went up for auction, $24 billion worth. how did it go, rick santelli >> you know what it is a strange auction. the grade, i the grade, i gave t a d plus 2.10, 210 was the yield at the dutch auction, but the one issue, market was rallying, pricing around 2.06. we ended up with a higher yield and lower price. it was the high one issued of the day. the pricing was horrible but some of the internals were pretty good. if you look at 64.8 in direction, all of those foreign buyers, the best since july of '20. if you looked at dealer amounts under 20%, it was very solid now, we know the auction didn't

go well. look at the two-day of ten-year note yields. boy, you see they popped from 1.62 to 1.64, and 1.67 was the high after the inflation news out of germany last night. we're on pace for the highest close on the chart going back to mid may. bund yields, the highest german inflation since october of 1974, bund yields dropped a bit as you see on the chart when you open it up and go back 30 months you can see we are hovering at some of the highest levels since may of 2019 kelly, back to you >> even with one of the biggest hawks on the ecb retiring five years early. in fact, a lot to digest in rate space today. rick santelli, thank you turning to china ubs is double upgrading stocks there to overweight after 16 months with an underweight call. the firm says tighter monetary policy is working through the economy. investors are too bearish on regulation, and the worst of the credit impulse is likely behind

us but at the same time chinese home prices in september just fell for the first time in six years. eunice eu eunice yoon is live for us >> reporter: thanks so much, kelly. chinese home buyers don't have the conviction ubs does of the price declines across 70 cities was less than 1% on the whole, butted adds to the concerns that goldman sachs has estimated about a quarter of gdp of course, it is already shaky because of all of the trouble of the debt-laden property developers such as evergrande. in fact, evergrande told the hong kong exchange tonight it failed to close a deal to sell a 51% stake in its property management business to a smaller rival for $2.6 billion that makes it just that much harder for the company to be able to make up for a missed

payment of $83.5 million on an offshore bond that was supposed to be made about a month ago, and that if it doesn't make by this weekend it will default chinese officials attempted again today to try to calm investors as well as home buyers, saying that they don't have to panic. in fact, the head said, the vice premiere said the property market has individual problems but that overall the risks are controllable trading in the shares of evergrande are going to resume on thursday. kelly. >> eunice, just as people are becoming more aware of how deep the problems run in the property sector, perhaps they are realizing chinese authorities can't let prices drop. i mean it is just -- you know, there's too much people have to gain i wonder if that is partly why ubs says, you know what? a lot of the negativity and the risks are now priced in and i don't know if we call it a bail-out but ultimately they will come up with something. >> right i mean it is very, very difficult because a lot of people here have their wealth

wrapped up in homes. i mean it is true all over the world, but especially here in china where it is just so much harder to find ways for regular chinese to be able to find wealth so that's one of the reasons why a lot of people do believe that there could be somewhat of a floor. but at the same time even, you know, it is just this week president xi had actually penned an essay talking about how important it is for china to push through common prosperity and meet its common prosperity goals, and he actually mentioned real estate, essentially saying what he says all the time, which is that homes are for living and not for speculation. so from the chinese official commentary that we had today, a lot of those officials, of course, want to calm down the investors but at the same time are not saying they're going to bail out any of these companies or that they're going to really go easy on the developers. >> yeah. they're walking such a tight rope thanks so much we appreciate your reporting as

always eunice yoon live in beijing. still ahead, paypal is reportedly exploring an acquisition of, yes, pintrest. it is leading to big moves in both stocks today. we will bring you all of the details we have and look at what this potential deal could mean for both fintech and social media. plus, only 65 days until christmas and a new spending survey shows a growing gap when it comes to holiday shopping plans. we will dig into those details next this is "the exchange" on cnbc

welcome back, everybody. paypal is reportedly in talks to buy social media firm pintrest for about $70 a share, which would make this nearly a $40 billion deal, and reuters just reported this past hour paypal hopes to announce a deal by its own earnings report coming up on november 8th both stocks on the move, pintrest halted twice due to volatility early in the session. they have both declined to comment so far what would paypal get out and why would pintrest sell. joining me, alex heath, a senior reporter at "the verge." yes, the one that broke the facebook renaming story so we might ask you that on the way out. lisa, let's start with you i appreciate you joining us on short notice today what jumps into your head as to why paypal would want to buy pintrest >> for the last couple of years

paypal has been shifting more and more into commerce and integrating shopping and promotional services into their app. so pursuing what they refer to as kind of the super app or broader commerce and payments app concept. if you recall, two years ago they bought honey. that kind of promotions service. this is somewhat, i would say, i don't know if the right word is reactive but it is a natural follow on to squares' acquisition of after pay we saw two months ago, because after pay, as much as they're known as a financing company their real differentiation is marketing and shopping services for consumers. this acquisition, if paypal ends up going ahead with it, will basically bring a bunch more sort of commerce and shopping, discovery content into the paypal ecosystem. >> it is fascinating, lisa, because you are making it clear this is not just a quirky

one-off. alex, my question would be, why is it important for fintech platforms to have more and more ownership of social shopping if we want to call it that? >> yeah, well, what is happening in the background here is that the advertising technology that underpins all of these apps, and, honestly, the internet, is being rewritten essentially by companies like apple, regulators in europe and soon in the u.s. where it is going to be harder and harder for companies to track purchases and conversions across other companies so what you are seeing across the industry is everyone consolidating social commerce under one umbrella, because if you have it all first party that data becomes usable for conversion, for proving the efficacy of advertising. it is incredibly valuable and only going to get more valuable. >> so, if i may, we can say this is apple's fault, alex my words, not yours. but explain to me again what the advantages are for people to be outside of apple's keeecosystemn

why they have to quickly assemble scale >> what apple did with the ios update is essentially through a prompt break the ability for, say, paypal to track that or pintrest to track that someone bought something and then finished the purchase on paypal, for example. if they can combine, then all of that data is inside their own walls and they can use it and, therefore, if they have advertising ambitions greater than what they have now it becomes even better and, you know, obviously pintrest gets the infrastructure that paypal provides >> okay. that's really helpful. lisa, remind me. i believe you have a buy rating on paypal. do you from an analyst's point of view like this move >> i would say gdd if this was 10 billion, 15 billion, that sort of range, no brainer. this is an area definitely of increased investment by paypal to add more of this rich commerce into the ecosystem. so it is what they call, you

know, beyond the button, more than just payment checkout, that they're adding more content, rich content both for their merchants and consumers. that said, in the broader strategy for paypal, we've been very keen on paypal expanding more aggressively internationally, by expanding more aggressively into other payment flows like in-store shopping, bill payment, b-to-b payments so going and spending 40 billion going this this direction means they're not spending that 40 billion in some of the other areas, and i think we have to really kind of think through those relative trade-offs, you know, and whether we would have put this one, you know, top on the list >> one quick follow-up, lisa you correctly noted that the square after pay and some of these were going to set off an m & a spree, but i don't think we saw it taking quite this form how do we are to think about this next? does it involve visa and mastercard on any level,but on the social side as well what about snap who else is out there we should

be thinking about? >> yes, you are right. this is maybe not the direction we would have anticipated, but certainly expecting more m & a now you have to say, okay, the other players that would immediately come to mind for me that are impacted by this, yes, would be somebody like some of the other big social platforms like a snap or etsy, for example, ones that are independent. but then also players like a shopify, you know, whose very heavily engaged with the exact same set ofmerchants instead o payment flows. so is there something that they do from a retaliatory perspective? even, you know, as i think i have commented before, players like american express who might not be the first ones who come to mind, but american express's core business really hinges on this deep integration of consumers and merchants with rich data and, you know, very

unique marketing experiences so, you know, this consolidation of commerce into these kind of other big platforms, you know, might ultimately trigger a move by them as well interestingly. >> fascinating again, really appreciate both of you kind of helping to shed light on what happened with this deal and the implications there. just before we go, alex, and again to reiterate because we will talk about this in a couple of moments, but this facebook name rebrand that i guess you are saying is coming next week, do you have anything to add in, i guess, the 12 or so hours, more than that now since the news first broke >> there's been wonderful memes about what the name could be people have very strong thoughts i saw aoc and others tweeting about it earlier i think this is just facebook pulling an al pta bet, essentially what google did where it named itself into this conglomerate i think it is zuckerberg's goal to distance the company from what we think of it today.

i think they want to be known by the metaverse, however you want to define that >> i agree with you on some of the memes. great stuff. alex and lisa joining us to talk tech today, as she said. coming up, the port of l.a. is planning to work around the clock to address the backlog of ships and containers but it might not fully solve the supply chain problems congill have the latest mi congill have the latest mi up and proactive alerts on market events. that's decision tech. only from fidelity.

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♪ ♪ with a bit more thought we can all do our part to keep plastic out of the ocean. ♪ welcome back to "the exchange," everybody 3 35,605, a record high many i think we are just below the closing high, which is 4,533

the s&p and fas dak trying for the six straight of gains but the nasdaq is sitting out the rally, down now. the i share's russell 1000 value etf moving to the upside, hitting a new all-time high itself today some of the best performers up more than 6%, hitting a record high at a guidance height. knight-swift transportation speaking of trucking setting a new high on earnings beat, up 6% and seeing a surge in freight demand used car retailers are getting a bump in the markets after lithia motors saw a rise today. they have pushed car prices to record levels. they are the beneficiaries the biggest laggard to date as well, up 20% since january, adding 4% as auto nation is up, adding 2.5% today. let's get to christina for a cnbc update.

hi, kellie here is what is happening. in florida a medical examiner has been called to a nature reserve where authorities are searching for brian laundrie a lawyer for the family says some items belonging to him were found in the park. he remains the only person of interest in the death of his girlfriend, gabby petito also nicholas crews pleading guilty to 17 counts of murder and 17 counts of acemttempted murder a jury will determine whether cruz will be sentenced to death or life in prison without parole on the news, more on the guilty plea and the penalty phase tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time and new york city mayor bill de blasio announcing a covid vaccine mandate for all city workers starting today through october 29th city employees who receive their first dose at a city-run site will receive $500, but after october 29th unvaccinated employees will be placed on

unpaid leave until they get their shots. kelly, back to you >> kristina, thank you americans are watching but not subscriber dining this is out retailers are only hurting themselves all of that and more is coming up in today's "rapid fire" right after this if you missed melissa lee's documentary "generation gamble," remember, about the gamification of everything, you can stream it on peacock highly recommend it. "the exchange" back after this this is worth. that takes wealth. but this is worth. and that - that's actually worth more than you think. don't open that. wealth is important, and we can help you build it. but it's what you do with it, that makes life worth living. principal. for all it's worth. hey businesses! you all deserve something epic!

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♪ all right. let's catch you up on a few other stories. it is a busy news day. let's hit a few more these other stories should be on your radar an they're not even other, they're some of the main ones here to break down the headlines, founder of news street adviser, kristina and michael santoli joining me as well today welcome to everybody let's start with netflix where shares are sliding 2%. they added 4.4 million subs last quarter. as alex sherman points out, 99% of subscriber growth came from outside the u.s. and canada. they expect to add 8.5 million new subs next quarter, biggest since 2019

reminder it is a zero sum game for streamers these days earlier this move netflix said its user engagement popped about 14%. delano, netflix, why is it down today? >> i think it is a mixture of profit take in we have seen the stock do incredibly well over the last couple of months, investors are doing a bit of profit taking we saw a bit of the revenue, inline with projections. a bit of a disappointment for some investors but subscriber growth was strong. we are seeing the net add subscriber growth projected higher for the fourth quarter. netflix again is making it clear they're not just having to battle with other competitors. it is also for all entertainment. so we see the moves they're making in buying game studios, see the moves they're making as far as audio things. it is an area netflix i think will have strength there i think it is still a company where you would want to be holding if you are an investor and you want to make sure. i think it is a good position

for investors still, kelly >> mike, what would you -- i mean obviously we know at some point as well once you saturate the u.s. and mature markets you have to grow internationally, but understand there may be less dollars per subscriber >> yes, that's the question. i do think expectations got pretty aggressive going into the number two days ago we were talking about how the analysts were ramping subscriber growth expectations i think it is a benign pull back in terms of tactically for the stock. " as much as netflix wants to point to things like "squid game" and how they can source it globally, you have to buy in to a repeat process if you are that driven, can we can't on you to do it again. i think it is a big picture question that hovers over it but not a negative response by the market to the number >> down 2.6%, i think back to levels we were trading at last week next up, after the onslaught of bad news and hearings around

facebook, the giant is moving towards a rebranding of the parent company similar to what alphabet did in 2015 or what google did by renaming itself alphabet this summer zuckerberg told "the verge" maybe five years from now, or seven years from now, people will primarily think about us as a metaverse company. shares are higher after being flat over the last months. kristina, we just heard from the reporter that broke the story who said they're trying to emphasize the future and not the past >> this is great timing given the part that, one, you have the britain regulator fining facebook about $70 million the fact that just today in d.c. attorney general is pretty much naming zuckerberg personally liable for misleading users about their private information. so, yes, timing is amazing for facebook to do this, but i think we could start to talk about the future, metaverse is not something that's going to disappear. it is the connection of our work, our virtual, everything all in one facebook is moving forward there are rumors about

wearables. they're using their headsets and trying to advance that the opportunities for gaming in there. the problem with this word metaverse now is, one, we don't have 5g technology which is why so many mobile carriers are trying to rush forward with that problem number two is the fact that our worlds are still not connected when we talk about facebook, if you buy something on facebook can you transfer it over to roblox, can you transfer it over to possibly netflix when they get into gaming that's an issue going forward. >> we have names like roblox and epic trying to take full position here as well. do you think it is too early to invest in the metaverse? do you like facebook's rebrand here and what would you do with the whole sector, if we want to call it that, delano >> yeah, it is interesting facebook has done a great job rebranding the story here. but i think this is an area where i think investors should take a close look at i like this move because i think if we're looking toward a more digitally immersive world, ar

being more into the real world, this is an area where these names can do it well as an investor i think it is really enticing. obviously for facebook from a fundamental standpoint they're still trading relatively cheap they were able to bounce back from some of the negative news we saw, but i think it is a great way to rebrand a story they've never been afraid to take those leaps when it comes to putting themselves out there in a more aggressive standpoint. if someone is going to do it, i think facebook has a great chance to do it. >> michael, it is sort of a good point to look back on. for example the alphabet name change five years ago. >> yeah. >> which to me changes the word i have to say but has done nothing else to change the company i'm talking about. >> in that instance it is absolutely true. because google is a verb, a noun and everything else that we discuss all the time, although as much as it seems kind of a cynical move, they want to change the subject, all of these corporate rebrands, no matter which one you want to bring up, seems like a little bit of a cumbersome exercise, i get it. one of my tenets that i think is

kind of underappreciated in general is how much managements of companies do things to kind of communicate with their own employees and to set priorities and to refocus them on something new. i think that's part of what is going on here, is they want to say, let's not be associated exclusively with our legacy slowest growth product we want to be all of the other things >> exactly exactly. all right. let's talk next about one of the worst-hit sectors by the labor and the supply crunch, and it is sit-down restaurants brinker releasing free earnings financial information. it wasn't pretty the chili's parent company sees revenue in line as well as higher comps and commodity, but higher labor costs and commodities are going to take a huge chunk out we have taken kmeed incremental pricing options, increasing our full year. shares of brinker are down as much as 10% is down today. the whole dining industry is

down between 18% and 30%, mike, over the past six months why are they bearing the brunt of this? is it -- i don't want to say unfair we understand why it is happening. >> sure. >> i guess is it an opportunity for the long run or can their model just not keep up >> well, i think the model has to be adjusted because, you know, there's a way to look at the big picture and say the companies have been in the business of under paying their employees and under charging customers. it has always been about kind of more calories per dollar you know i like that metric, kelly. at the same time kind of keeping their staff a little bit on a shoe string. there's something unique going on in the context of, yes, wage growth everywhere, labor shortage everywhere, but retail and restaurant in particular people are just opting out they're saying whether it is just not the kind of employment i'm willing to take if there are other options or if i have a little bit of a cushion that was built up by some of the government support payments. >> it is hard to imagine, kristina, what they can do to kind of come out of this in a stronger position. literally we have already seen the tablets at tables and

they're doing what they can. it doesn't exactly enhance the experience in my opinion >> the question and mike talked about it, is will they continue to increase prices going forward to offset the labor cost chica chipotle in june increased the price and there was no push back how many times does it have to happen to offset the commodity and labor costs, that's the concerning part going forward. especially to the digital side, what is brinker doing to improve the digital platform so we're all still buying the food via our apps >> delano, we are obviously talking about publicly traded names. it is not like restaurants are a part of the s&p, but they are actually a part, if you think about the bread and butter across towns and communities across the country the biggest, the most powerful ones are saying it is really bad out there for the rest of the restaurant industry and i wonder if they need more targeted relief at this point >> exactly, kelly. i agree with mike.

the fundamental business model has to be adjusted right now you will see casual diners in a tough spot, margins are decreasing if you look at the high-end restaurants, those type of end restaurants will be willing to forego price increases it is tough for the casual diners i think as mentioned the model has to be changed because they're in a tough position right now, kelly >> i did pickup at a local italian place near my parents. $27 for my lunch order it was a pasta with chicken. it was a side salad. of course, i am never going to do that again, and, it is really, really sad because it hurts them far more than any price increases might be helping at the moment. all right. she went off on a rant >> never say never >> i know, believe me. not for $27. delano, kristina and michael santoli, thank you very much today. that wraps things up on "rapid fire." we have more news before we head to the break cnbc's indkate rooney was ae to confirm the deal between

paypal and pintrest, they're in the early stages paypal down about 6% on what could be an acquisition looking around $40 a share maybe though pintrest is up, maybe the market doubting the details. pintrest trading around 62 we have a news alert on netflix transgender employees, and their allies are holding a rally and facing counterprotesters ahead of a walkout at netflix epic building in hollywood. this is in protest of the handling of dave chappelle's stand-up "the closer." many on netflix staff a angered by his special saying it was trans phobic and by internal communications from executives about it up until yesterday the co-ceo stayed mum, his counterer part defended it. after the company's earnings record, he said, quote,

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paola needs a parachute. so, salesforce customer 360 unites your marketing, sales, commerce, service, and it teams around her. so they can deliver a great experience from anywhere. ♪ (whistle) ♪ ♪ welcome back, everybody. the newest housing data shows rates are rising and re-fis are dropping, down 7% for the week diane olick is here with the details. diana. >> reporter: yeah, kelly the re-fi market is quickly drying up as rates continue to rise the mortgage bankers association reported the average rate on the 30-year fix rose against of again last week hitting 3.2% that rate was 21 basis points lower the same time a year ago as a result, re-fi demand fell 7% for the week and 22% lower year over year, and re-fis had been big business for lenders.

rocket, for example, did 88% of its business in re-fis according to the latest quarterly release. you see the stock is down in the last six months as rates have been rising. united wholesale mortgage in the red over the last six months the fed seems clear they're going to taper bond buying meaning higher rates going forward. in fact, the mortgage bankers association for the 2022 forecast has re-fis dropping over 60% next year they do expect to see more purchase mortgage activity but not a lot more as rates rise in the pricey market, more potential buyers could be sidelined. the big question is will higher rates finally start to take the heat out of the home prices or is the shortage of homes for sell still going to keep them inflated, kelly. >> right as nervous as it would make everybody for prices to drop, if they go up and rates are higher, affordability will get even worse. >> right and it is not a question of prices dropping. i doubt they would drop really

on a national level at all it is just a question of not going up 18% or 20% as we're seeing on the new home sales so if you just saw maybe prices continue to go up at around 4%, which is a much more normal historical rate, that would be okay again, if it could take some of the heat out and get some of the first-time buyers in it would be helpful. >> we feel your pain with the leaf blower. thank you very much. >> cue the leaf blower >> diana olick in washington today. up next, president biden pushing the port of los angeles to operate all day every day, but one freight c eseo won't be enough to fix the snagand s could make the problems worse. she will join us right after this quick break passed away. and a couple of years later, my mother passed away. after taking care of them, i knew that i really wanted to become a nurse. amazon helped me with training and tuition. today, i'm a medical assistant

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ai to connect shipments the truckers lilly, great to have you back. it is interesting to hear you do think this could make things worse in the near term how so >> hi, kelly thanks for having me again well, you know, i think the opening of ports is a of ports a good first step, it's definitely a step in the right direction in alleviating one of the necks in the bottleneck system but i think there are going to be downstream ripple effects when we look at the overall system, capacity shortage, driver shortage, still remains, therefore, the importance of shippers relying on technology partners it will become more important to manage the incr increasing capacity. >> you can tell the politicians are grasping for answers i have seen a report that the

president or someone could send in the national guard to ease the capacity shortage. i think local politicians said they should ban ships from idling because it caused the oil leak in california no one knows what to do. tur expert how did we solve this problem? >> it is going to be a truly team effort, kelly you know, i think that it will involve many players coming together i think it is going to be incredibly important that the role of technology plays a far bigger role. i would say that the bottom line is that the widespread adoption of technology will become increasingly important to drive more efficient, less waste, better for the environment, more fulfilling job opportunities for drivers and for carriers which will ultimately be better for our consumers and helping small businesses grow across the entire ecosystem. >> i think you won a national emergency order that everyone

uses transfix. tell me about the driver shortage i think you are onto something here, stuff can only move -- we did this when we did that massive special, we had reporters in china, and at the port, and then at a -- what do they call it, a switch-over station for truckers in the midwest, and back here the trucking shortage is the reason why there is a bottleneck at the port. it's not just the operating hours. how do we resolve that >> yeah, the driver shortage is real we are currently short about 80,000 drivers that's still high. but it is lower than compared to three years ago. but i think given the shortage, you know, it's increasingly becoming more important to be able to provide carriers and drivers a far better experience. we have to make it easier for them we have to make it easier on their lives. and we have to be able to help them better utilize their trucks and access, you know, the freight they are looking for

you know, i think -- i think this is where the importance of really driving a human centered and technology enabled solution comes in technology hasn't played a critical enough role in the overall supply chain for a while. and now with modern interfaces and software solutions we can make it easier for the carriers and drivers today. >> i think technology could take care of this problem by deploying autonomous vehicles. a crisis like this is exactly what could spur people towards something like that. thank you for joining us we really appreciate it. we will check back in with you soon >> thanks,cally. with 66 days until christmas and all the goods and everything trying to get to where it is going by then, a new survey finds americans are planning to spend about 5% this holiday season compared with last

year's but if you dig in, there is a huge gap we will tell you about it next

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welcome back deloitte's annual consumer spending survey has holiday numbers that sound good at first but not when you look closely. you see a high disparity between high and low income households the supply chain has a lot to do with it. higher prices. you get the idea courtney reagan has the details. >> the headline number show american households plan to spend on average 5% this holiday season than less which is a strong spending season and near 2019 levels. but there is a disconnect between what households spend or plan to spend more and a lot of worry about inventory and pricing. higher income americans or those with incomes of $100,000 or more

plan to spend 15% more this holiday season than last year. that's five times more than lower income households or those with incomes of less than $50,000. the lower income households say they plan to spend 22% less than last year. there is also households that don't plan to spend at all 11.56% say they are not shopping this holiday season. that's more than double 2020 two thirds of those non-spenders are indeed lower income households consumers are worried about getting what they want this holiday season 75% are concerned about stockouts. 70% do expect higher prices on the goods that are available the worry is that -- the good news is the worry may be worse than reality 7% of executives are worried about getting holiday orders in time and 50% are concerned about the higher prices a. third of execs say their holiday inventory order volumes are up

double digits compared to last year it could be a nice holiday surprise if the retail executives are right and the consumer worries are rong. >> it has implications for all the different kinds of retailers, more geared towards the high and low end i doubt deloitte goes into that but i am sure those on the street can kind of play mix and match. >> exactly deloitte, when they did this survey were serving retailers that have $1 billion or more in sales. surveying them we know that best buy's ceo cory barry has come out and said we have 50% more inventory for holiday this year, 20% more than two years ago. that's always a big play during the holiday season electronics are a hot gift item. >> this bears repeating at a time when we are talking about supply chain problems. they have more again, easier for those on the upper end of things than those on the lower end to show up and

shop there but puts them in ab attractive position details on what holiday spending could look like in 2021. that does it for "the exchange." stay right there punch starts right now -- "power lunch" starts right now. >> welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. here's what's ahead this hour. the dow hitting an intraday record are bonds playing a big role in the stock market's rise. we will explore that and the best ways to invest with equities today in rally mode energized inflation. will higher energy prices speed up rate hikes. a bank of america analyst is with us. and disrupting the disrupters. shares of macy's and coles are outperforming stitch fix and porsche mark is the industry being redefined again? what does it mean for investors. let's check the markets.