tv Fast Money CNBC October 20, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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they will be punished for that even though red hat continues to do 17% growth. >> cleans up the story you try to focus on the stuff -- $120 billion market cap. it's shrinking compared to what else is out there in tech. there is a strong legacy, but not that big >> we are out of time here on closing bell "fast money" starts now. >> live from the nasdaq market site, this is "fast money. i'm melissa lee. tonight we are all over the after hours action tesla down calls for ibm and lvs kicks off. we will bring you the big headlines from those quarters. plus crafting a deal
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papal is in late stage talks to buy pinterest. what a tie-up could mean for the two companies. and dow with an all-time high. we start off with an earnings alert. tesla shares under a little pressure in the after hours after reporting its results. phil >> melissa, i am not surprised to see the stock selling off a little it has had a heck of a move over the last couple months after better than expected delivery in the third quarter. look what they earned for the third quarter. $1.86 per share, which was above estimates. and gross margins 28.8%.
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much stronger than expected. it's set up by record deliveries in the third quarter they delivered a little over 231,000 vehicles and on pace to deliver over 800,000 numbers when they deliver their fourth quarter. here is what people will be focused on can they give us better insight on the factories in berlin and texas. and also, what is happening with the chip supply. tesla did better managing the chip crisis during the third quarter. and finally, will elon be on, will he be on the call during the last conference call he said he was going to step back from doing these conference
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calls unless he felt the call warranted for him to be on we will see. as you look at shares of tesla, the stock has been moving higher look in the last one month or last week. it has been on a tear. melissa, a record quality profit for tesla earning $1.86 a share, well above expectations. >> i hope he is on it is always more amusing when he's on. >> much more entertaining. >> the $25,000 vehicle seems to be the key to getting tesla into virgin markets and making a more global, affordable brand do you think we will get any sort of guidance on that >> we talked about this three or four weeks ago when there was an event. gene munster was on and said i hope we hear about the $25,000
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vehicle. he he said i am not talking about a $25,000 vehicle. so will he finally give us some clarity in regards to that i am not holding my breath >> phil, thanks. keep us posted when phil said heck of a run-up into earnings, he meant 18% in the past month and 31% in the past three months. the stock is down just under a percent, tim the reaction in that context is good >> i have to tip the hat they have removed a lot of uncertainties around the business and valuation is not something -- i know growth stocks get punished when they don't grow, but you can't say tesla is not growing
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very impressive. even if you annualize this $1.83 number, the pushback is valuation, but if you get 8 bucks a share annualized in 2021 and take that out to 2025 and get $40 a share. that's the execution it will be interesting to hear elon talk about margins. they have been so successful on chips and other parts of the supply chain is still spending money. i heard him say they have been spending money flying parts around the world et cetera, et cetera it implies it can be more profitable in the future i can't jump on the band wagon but these are good numbers >> are these the kind of numbers
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you have to hold your nose i don't know if gm has the runway at the rate tesla is selling them >> i think you have to hold your nose i missed this. i wanted to buy this after the split announcement last summer and the stock ran up to tim's point, there is a bunch of levers. the fact they can make a car more efficient than standard carmakers is leading the pack. having said that, you have energy storage, batteries, services, the full self drive that's coming on they are way ahead of the pack there as well. i think gm is the closest to them on full self drive. but if you look at the chart, it looks perfect. there could be a double top
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issue around the 900 level, but he can pull that lever again on another stock split. i wouldn't put it beyond him he can say it's about energy storage. and he could talk about another coin he wants to get behind. there is tremendous amount of levers that the other car companies don't have so, yes, you have to hold your nose and just buy it >> dan nathan, does this quarter confirm or affirm tesla's run we have seen in the last few months >> it's interesting. the options market was only implying about a $35 move in either direction on a $865 stock. that's minuscule so the run-up from the may lows, you talked about the stock being
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up 15% in the last month alone, it reminds me of that run into netflix last night what were they going to do to get this stock going higher. we already had deliveries and that sort of thing the stock is at 865 it has a $865 billion market cap that has market cap of global autos if you tell me you are not worried about that other competition that knows how to make cars -- maybe not as profitable as the scale they are doing it as tesla -- with the gross margin, i say this is the most unhinged thing i have seen. i am not railing against it. i am not long it or shot, i am just not dumb. but there is not anything in this stock to make you run out and buy it
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>> i think the memorable line in that is unhinged pete, do you think this is the most unhinged thing out there as he calls it? >> the idea is that they deliver. they deliver on the margins, continue to be the leader in the ev space there is a lot of positives we can focus on and there are negatives. look at valuation, you can't look at that it's crazy but the reality is they continue to deliver the fact that elon musk has so many ways to pull levers, that gives him a leading position that he can continue to hold on to at the lead and continue on the upside it's about production of energy and all of the things that tesla has become over the years. it's an impressive move. when you look at this today, i think there were a lot of option
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buyers over the last week or two. d dan talked about some of the movement last week they were buying the 850 strike and were rolling those up from great numbers they already delivered. i think you have to plug your nose, look at this and use the option i think that's the key when you look at the stock, the price is unbelievable. but with the options, it gives you risk-reward. you know what type of risk and what type of reward you can get. so options market is the way you want to play this stock. >> can i ask pete and dan, historically this has been a volatile stock is this as good of a time, but has implied volume gone down enough that makes options in tesla for the first time more
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attractive than they have ever been >> i think so. i will let dan respond aswell. but, tim, you are 100% right when i look at the implied volatility and what it was when it used to be in the 200%, to where it is now. also, you can make spreads, you can have 20 and 30 and 50 spreads where you can position yourself for the upside or downside, whatever your gut is telling you. my gut tells me that the direction continues to be higher i would rather be in the calls than puts. >> if only there was a show about options. oh, yeah, there is, on friday! >> gene munster joins us i know you are a bull. but in terms of margins, this
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grabbed me in your twitter feed, that you would expect tesla to have margins the size of apple's in a few years what does a roadmap look like to get there? >> three pieces. the first is better efficiency related to austin and berlin this is something that they are not doing in existing factories. this means better alignment and margin impact. the second is a little elusive topic. but eventually fsd, whether or not they get to full self-driving, they will be able to charge more for it. and the third piece is around batteries and components as those continue to decline, what teslais doing, they are three steps ahead of the battery
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industry i think those three combined i want to bring that back to a theme and that is to hold the nose when it comes to tesla valuation. if you subscribe that this growth can continue -- and it is quite impressive, delivery growth versus big auto down 23%, something going on here. if you believe this growth can continue, you can see a company going from 70 billion in revenue next year to 400 billion i am going to get to my point around profitability if they do inch these margins higher, they will get an apple-like multiple, six times revenue and that would equate to a $2500 stock. a lot can happen between now and then there was more to this quarter than meets the eye
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i think the profitability trend, i think this is a great opportunity to own tesla for the long-term. >> we were just talking with adam with morgan stanley yesterday. he said the fact that tesla can build factories from the groun up and use the press to reason efficiency, like making a chassis out of one single piece, how much of this is far away and how much is within the near future i would imagine this is within the important piece of the puzzle >> exactly how far is it away a few months away from initial production in austin and berlin and probably a year and a half from really hitting scale production this isn't going to happen
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overnight. the margins aren't going to jump and you won't have margins overnight. but i think you will continue to see manufacturing efficiencies find their way into the gross margin >> what is the number one question you would ask elon musk >> i want to know about general availability there is one you can trust a lot can go into that, but when he believes that it's noteworthy that they keep pushing forward in these betas, there must be some concept of a timeline once that happens, i think it will be huge how investors look at tesla
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>> the call should get under way in about 15 minutes. pete, what is your number one question for elon musk if he were there >> i think tim is the one who brought this up, talking about bitcoin and some of the other places he might try to have investment part pieces of this company. we know enough about what the company is doing and the direction in terms of which types of vehicles he wants to sell not the low end. he wants higher end and he wants margins, but i am interested in terms of some of those investment ideas as well ibm, tracking shares going lower after hours. >> ibm drops on revenue.
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he said he is focusing the business on hybrid cloud and ai, but they continue to be dogged by the same question for years can they actually turn the shift. despite the talk of next generation, missed revenue expectations, and it continues to disappoint investors and underperforms the broader market and there is decelerating sequential growth. systems revenue i want to point out because that includes hardware it was down 12% amid the pandemic there was no guidance we are getting ready for a spinoff on november 3, but there is skepticism that ibm can turn the ship >> she will be on the call thank you. if you look at the cloud
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business, up 2 1/2%. tim, can you make the case for ibm after all of the quarters of disappointment >> they are not going to grow revenue for five years forget the risk that may be around their accounting and what's truly going on there. they have to make acquisitions for investors there is no free cash flow coming back to you for a company not growing the top line any time soon the stock has underperformed by 700 basis points this year and is not getting better. you need to see more cloud growth, but it's impossible for red hat to turn this around overnight. >> red hat was up 17% in a quarter and that wasn't enough
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grasso >> it's counter intuitive. i picked this years ago as my secular short. when i look at it now, i think i would be a buyer it is cheap, fits into the value bucket b, a yield of 6.4% you are not buying a stock for that, but it fits nicely into the value bucket if we see rates rise, i think this can outperform. if i told you this is up 12% and has outperformed apple for the year, you would scratch your head what would you do with apple you are not going to call that a secular short or something you should dump. it's a value tech stock. i think we are throwing out ibm a little too early or a little too late, however you want to look at your timeline. i think it's worth buying on
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this timeline. >> some interest in pintrest does this deal make any sense? and later, las vegas vesand is moving lower on earnings. can get mers the powerful new iphone on us. so, should all our it move to the cloud? the cloud would give us more flexibility, but we lose control. ♪ ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go? ♪ and we need insights across our data silos, but how? ♪ if i go there will be trouble ♪ ♪ ♪ wait, we can stay and go. hpe greenlake is the platform that brings the cloud to us. ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪
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we have an after hours alert on hpq >> up 3% after hours after it was announced raising its physical 2022 outlook. the company reiterated fiscal 2021 and that financial outlook. the stock had fallen earlier telling marketwatch that pc ship issues would be hampered, but stock up after hours >> thanks. a record day on wall street. the s&p 500 inching closer to
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records. all of this as yields move higher to yield. dan, you wouldn't think stocks and yields would move together >> it was interesting, mel i don't know if you caught this about 1:15 or so, when the stock started ticking up the stock market sold off. that was maybe a little bit of a preview if we were to see the 10-year yield take off the highs from march this had to do with rising rates but other things, inflation fears, growth deceleration, other things i think stagflation is a story here i think q4 guidance we will get
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means a lot of things. expectations have gone from high to mid single digits the question is will we get that back if stocks can't break out in a meaningful manner, you have another test of last week's lows or so. >> we were talking about stock moves on earnings in the context of going into earnings if you look at the overall as well as the yields i would say this may not look good when you have yields tick steadily higher. >> we came into earnings with expectations challenged. we had growth scares, fed
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concerns with the fed institution, with the rate, continuity s&p is up in the past ten sessions, as big of a run as it has had. i know now we are setting up into seasons that will look better when we get the tech week right around the corner, it puts pressure on names. nasdaq has outfperformed tech from a volatility or a kpl complacency perspective, they have sat at post covid lows as far as volatility. the interesting thing is the most cyclical parts of the market is industrials and transport. the transport stock looked awful and has recovered. i think higher rates are good for the market i think that's what they are showing here >> quick question here
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danger will robinson, where is that from? >> "lost in space. the whole crew before your time, mel, a young lady like you. >> we are just getting started here is what is coming up next >> is papypal the next social butterfly? and what got all of us talking tonight? we will bring you the details. "fast money. we will be back right after this we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it.
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>> welcome back to "fast money." shares of pintrest surging there is talk that the social media company is in late stage talks with paypal. with more on what it could mean, let's bring in if dan. stock was down 5%. it seems like this sort of deal would get it away from being a pin tech >> or alternatively it is another way to get deeper into e-co e-commerce if you think about it, facebook is getting into payment. >> so maybe it's tit for tat
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>> do they want to use paypal as a preferred method without acquiring pintrest when i read this, i thought is there something lacking that they are looking for a deal like this >> a great point the fear in the market is that everyone looking for the net, they got it in fiscal '21. i think if there is a long-term strategic rationale, it's getting into e-commerce and maybe something like shopify or amazon this could be one more building block, but i agree there are a lot of eyebrows in the market today. >> dan, when i look at a potential deal like this, the
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history of large strategic mna, it is not great. pinterest saw 91 million active users in the last quarter. it was decelerating and the stock got hit. this stock went public two years ago. isn't there a longer runway for this company than to rather get gobbled up by a big payment company that is also seeing decelerating growth, is there there something more like a walmart? i could see pintrest being an inroads for a company like walmart. >> i think there may be a confluence of interest here. you are seeing the covid bump in terms of user base spike to your point it has been decelerating they may be under pressure to
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sell to someone and paypal are seeing e-commerce slow which has nothing to do with them. it is the post covid hangover. and maybe that creates a good combination of good price but also long-term strategic benefit they could not get by each one being on their own >> dan, great to speak with you. steve, what would you make of this tie-up? >> i think it was interesting. a piece was put out saying they thought they were better off buying a processer, and i immediately looked at light speed, a $14 billion company or toast that is $25 billion. they could buy both of those for cheaper or the same amount they are paying for pintrest and it gives them more exposure where
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they want to be. i don't like it. >> pete, i don't know where he was. we fixed his audio he is on the phone now they think you are locked up someplace. what do you think of paypal buying pintrest? >> i think it makes sense. they are close to one another, 400-plus million users i think it makes sense all you have to do is go back to earlier in the year. this is an $85 stock i look from a valuation standpoint for pintrest. they have almost no debt, traded a forward pe of about 40 when i look at this company i think it would make -- first i
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think it would make a good match, but second, i think they are getting it for the right price. across the industries, i think the price they would be paying makes sense going forward for paypal but we will see. there are a lot of things that would have to go right we saw option paper. they were dead on as far as the timing of this thing as far as the announcement but we have to see when it will happen if it happens in november, i think it will be a price higher than rear now. >> tim, you are grimacing and shaking your head. >> i am thrilled and happy pete is okay. we were worried sick and glad things are better. i don't think this is a cheap acquisition at 13 times sale and not a creative deal for paypal who is not cheap either. with their overpriced currency, i think they could be doing
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other things they are laser focused on acquisition. i think this would be their largest acquisition. i like dan's idea, this makes more sense for major retailer and big box to be the funnel i don't see it at all for paypal >> cramer says it could be an opportunity. head over to the website or use the qr code to sign up and facebook's facelift? about to change its name is this the status needed? first earnings from las vegas sands.
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reducing traffic the vip segment remains under pressure they said china will open up when it can control an outbreak, not just with vaccinations but treatment as well. the ceo rob goldstein said he anticipates a real recovery in 2022 and he said it won't be completely dependent on the chinese visitor. he said singapore, malaysia those countries reopening could mean a billion for sands goldstein said las vegas is the blueprint for recovery what is the path here? open up and let the pent up demand explode he said he can't pinpoint a date when that happens in asia, but
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when it happens it will be powerful the leadershipteam says they are taking a long-term approach, investing in the future, and a blunt answer when asked about the process for renewing rob goldstein said he sees no chance of sands losing its opportunity to lose its opportunity to operate in mackaw >> we will see if that placates investors. tim, you are in las vegas, what do you think >> we have to talk about this. as much as this is about travel restrictions, and it seems travel mobility issues in asia have been a major part of the story, the headlines are not that the headlines are chinese government concern on license renewals and regulatory crackdown. otherwise this would be a major opportunity to buy a stock that traded down to its covid lows.
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as contessa pointed out, marina bay sands in singapore is a major investment in digital. the stock has been chopped almost in half but the multiple investors should be paying for a focused, but global gaming company should not be halved. i am long so i think owning it at these levels is an interesting trade. >> pete, what do you think >> what you have to deal with is we have to decide what sort of position we are in with a lot of companies, not just casino companies, specifically casino companies in this case what will happen none of us really know that.
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i look to mgm and they have far less exposure than las vegas sands or wynn. i will put it on the chart and you can take a look. you can see the difference of what has been going on with mgm. the option has been dead on. they have been buying and buying and buying the stock is just continuing towards new highs. i think for now, temporarily it's just an mgm trade las vegas sands and wynn will be trading again, but we have to find out what's going on in china before we make that decision we tackle it in the new documentary generation gamble. coming up, fakece book lookn to reportedly change its name.
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and intel, how options trader is setting up for it. ♪ i see them bloom ♪ ♪ for me and you ♪ to reportedly change its name. and intel, how options trader is setting up for it. ♪ and i th♪ ♪ what a wonderful world ♪ a rich life is about more than just money. that's why at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner so you can build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner.
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get a facelift the social media giant is planning to change its name next week with a plan to focus more on metaverse let's bring you in what can they accomplish here? >> i think it's pr management or crisis management. they have the whistleblower, antitrust, and they are trying to change the narrative. when you don't like the narrative, flip it but the reality for facebook is they have a fundamental product
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problem happening. it is languishing, no longer as compelling or engaging as market alternatives, especially for younger people i think they are looking for something more forward looking i think this is part of it >> thank you you just moved from silicon valley and you mentioned the whistleblower. you are on the east coast. do they have a bigger problem here they are thinking about the me metaverse, but they are trying to look for platforms -- >> i think this is an interesting thing happening. you have had people on much smarter than me, but there is something happening fundamentally. we are shifting away from web
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2.0 and moving to web 3.0. that will hurt facebook if they can't capture the momentum they are dealing with that real time trying to figure out how can we participate in the new world being built. >> how about the concept of facebook breaking itself up? is that a solution we know the stock trades cheap there is regulatory pressure forget the name change, i agree with you how about splitting it up? >> i think fundamentally, a lot of these tech platforms will be split up it might be better for a lot of these investors. you look at amazon, it's the same thing i think facebook might see that as an inevitable future as they face regulatory scrutiny whether
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in the u.s. or overseas. >> thank you for joining us. hope to seeyou again soon. you can make the comparison, not necessarily a great one, but google to alphabet, the notion that a company wants to be viewed more than just the one namesake product >> i get that. when you look at thestock performance up 25%, it has outperformed a lot of the other technology mega cap stocks to tim's point, if they break it up, that's better for shareholder value, but they have a regulatory issue, so instead of one company that d.c. is focused on, there will be multiple companies d.c. is focused on i think d.c. has to get their act together and squash whatever is bad about facebook or whatever they call it, in the
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next two weeks >> some may think face bach has -- facebook has a fundamental product problem. metaverse, if it can get there, wouldn't that solve the problem in one fell swoop? >> whouldn't you destroy value o get there. mark zuckerberg, the smartest minds in web 3 think it's something different and they are dedicated to building that so the intersection of web 2 and 3, that's what is playing out. mark zuckerberg knows that and they have people working there leaking things about the worst things about the company
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so, should all our it move to the cloud? the cloud would give us more flexibility, but we lose control. ♪ ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go? ♪ and we need insights across our data silos, but how? ♪ if i go there will be trouble ♪ ♪ ♪ wait, we can stay and go. hpe greenlake is the platform that brings the cloud to us. ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪ ♪ ♪
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one trader bought about 2300 contracts of the april, 2022, about six months from expiration for an average price of $3.20. so this is a bet betting about $750,000 in premium that over the next six months intel could rise about 9% during that time this trade does incorporate the next two earnings announcement so for a stock that has been range bound for the next six months or so, playing for a breakout on earnings >> pete, do you like this trade? >> i do. i own the stock. i think there is upside, but nothing since may. i expect it to be flat on this move >> tony zhang, thank you for more options action, friday at 5:30 p.m. up next, final trade
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[suitcase closing] [gusts of wind] [ding] you have the best pizza in town and the worst wait times. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire final trade time pete >> too cheap, going higher --
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