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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 22, 2021 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT

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cap of the s&p reports next week amazon was down about 3% i wonder if that's an advertising play a lot of indications, but maybe not bad for facebook >> it's going to be quiet. it will be heavyweight earnings. stocks with near record highs. that's going to do it for "closing bell" on a friday "fast money" is up now this is "fast money. i'm melissa lee. tonight on fast, intel on the out. shares sk teeing their biggest drop andcleveland cliffs is soaring after nearly 15% earnings. what is next for the steel
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producer and beyond meat shares plunging today. we start off with the great consumer comeback. shares of america express soaring. the stock posting its biggest game since last november the company saying card member spending hit a record, nearly $8500 on record. is this a sign the american consumer is back better than ever >> jeff mills? >> i think they have been back for a while. i have talked about the strength of the consumer, all of the things that can power demand as we move into 2022. this was all good news loan balances were up. i think you saw it in the macrodata today. not just amex.
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you are seeing spending. i think that is important trying to figure out where the strength of the consumer will go. amex is trading at 20 times, maybe a little higher so i think some of the good news is in at this point when i think about general retail you can think about cole's, even target has come in. i have been a value cyclical voice, but i am starting to look toward mid 2022 a slowdown in the economy. i think the macroenvironment will havean impact on the styl boy bias across the market but i want to focus in names with growth. i think of names like lulu and nike as opposed to cole's and
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gap. i would point to nike and lulu because i think they have better growth behind them and have nailed it better in the digital consumer >> do you think amex and its users speak to the general u.s. consumer typically they tend to be higher end income consumers can you connect the dots between that and broader consumer spending >> sure, mel you have seen broader consumer spending, but those at the higher end have been spending more you saw it in terms of travel and entertainment and goods and services but there has been so much hype about not having product for christmas or other holidays so people have been buying ahead. that's one thing we have been
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watching we have concerns about how some businesses are paying for the growth i agree with jeff. i think i would trim this one and turn to more growth names. i like square. it has its cash out, going after after pay, so that will boost its ability to both the merchants and consumers. we like that when you find something where there are many ways to win, i think you want to pay up for growth >> personally, i have been buying since february. i pull forward by a lot. this is q3 numbers we haven't seen the brunt of the price increases for energy, for instance price increases for almost every single good you would buy.
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i wonder if there would be an impact on consumer spending we have not seen yet. >> i think there will be an impact, but it will be longer lasting. we will have to see stickier prices for a while before they impact the consumer and spending habits the strength of the consumer, savings is up, wages is up, labor market where the rate is high because people are leaving and finding higher paying jobs if you look at some of the earnings jobs, look at the banks, credit card charges going higher we saw it from consumer ceos talking about demand is strong i think you have consumers willing to pay up especially if we are in a situation with supply chain issues. i guess i will take the baton
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from jeff on value and cyclical. we like some of those much we like target and tjx and lulu as well but even names like cvs as people are out shopping more and running errands, we think consumer is strong and will stay that way this is a good way to balance out your portfolio >> everybody likes the u.s. consumer, grasso do you >> you want me to be negative? >> no. i want you to be you, grasso >> oh, let grasso be grasso. the thing that sticks out to me is what do you buy in february that the sizes are going to change from december to february >> so if i by you a sweater, you will need a different size in
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february >> one of my sons grew four inches in the last seven months. you can't buy your kids -- i don't know if you are buying for your husband but tastes change dare i digress amex means high end consumer and also corporate cards, corporate travel i take -- everyone went a different direction. i went immediately to delta or united if the corporate traveler is coming back or corporations are spending more, i think that will be the canary in a coal mine in a good way the other thing with these names, you have to go high end so i go capri, get your michael kors with capri. all of its competitors are doing well you don't go department stores macy's is up 132%.
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that was taken out with the pandemic and thought not to survive. people are saying, all right, are they going to survive, be just as good i don't know i would be a seller of macy's with both hands. urban outfitters, that's a name no one mentioned that looks to me like it will break out. the last thing is that people have been hunkered down for two years. they haven't been spending they have a ton of moneyto deploy on their families i believe the consumer will be strong straight through next year forget about christmas, straight through next year. >> i think the aspect of luxury that jeff mentioned, if you want to take a look at luxury, i think you would have to take a hard look where they are getting their sales because a lot of european luxuries have gotten hit because of evergrande and
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china as well as spiking prices. >> it is not necessarily a one size fits all story relative to the consumer you have to understand where consumers are coming from. people being willing to spend here in the u.s. versus europe covid trends, vaccination trends but at the same time it is the luxury high end brand recognition. i think that's where you want to be when i look at retail space i see a couple of big brands we mentioned nikes and companies like that. below it i see things becoming more and more fragmented i am doing my own shopping i think about some of the big brands first, but there are so many more companies i have tried
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recently i think you are probably seeing that across the consumer base. you have the top recognizable brands and then everybody else >> it is easier to try new brands you can order one little thing from here, another from there and don't have to go all in at a macy's let's say >> i think jeff is right i have three kids in my house and they are ordering from different places they have different styles but a point you made, mel which i agree with there is going to be conspicuous consumption brands in china. so brands will be doing better than a brand splashed all over it we haven't seen what type of restrictions will be put in place. even if a company doesn't have a
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lot of sales in china, there could be a headline risk and there are a lot of companies who have a lot of sales in china so we would like to differentiate between the two and how subtle is the luxury so we prefer brands that have more subtle luxury. coming up, one of our traders is seeing a long-term buying opportunity for a stock and gearing up with a week of earnings from apple to exxon. e to the cloud? the cloud would give us more flexibility, but we lose control. ♪ ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go? ♪ and we need insights across our data silos, but how? ♪ if i go there will be trouble ♪ ♪ ♪ wait, we can stay and go. hpe greenlake is the platform that brings the cloud to us. ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪
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to have a universal recycling and composting program for residents and businesses. but it all starts with you. let's keep making a differene together. welcome back to "fast money. intel shares falling after disappointing earnings let's bring in carter. >> this can be examined a couple of ways. intel's weakness is idiosyncratic. they are not as exciting as an area of market, but what is going on with intel is exclusive to it.
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what this chart depicts is intel on the top and its relative performance to the stock's performance on the bottom. intel has been underperforming since the peak in 1999 fairly consistently we also know that intel, its all time high was $75.60 some 20 years ago and it's trading at almost half that there is something wrong with this particular chip maker whereas that is not the case with semis as a theme. look at the next chart this is something on the top versus something on the bottom the something on the top is the sox index. look at the relative performance to the s&p on the bottom
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since 2008 semis have been outperforming. and they still haven't recouped since the dot com peak i would call that be ninely bullish. it is an uptrend, not particularly robust, but it has responded to its average repeatedly semis were better than the qqq, better than the russell 2000 and that's with intel being down so badly. >> carter, we will see you in a few minutes. >> you think this is an
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opportunity? >> we do it is not that we are all in on intel. but we do think there is opportunity here when we look at what pat has laid out, his plan going forward. we know everything has to go right for this to be positive for the stock, but we think we need to give him a little bit of time to make this happen we think some of the disappointing news from the earnings and the past couple quarters is already priced into the stock. when we look at models, we have the fundamental components of it and values based opponent. when we take the russell 2,000, intel is in the top 10% on both sides. it makes sense to add it as a small component into our portfolio. this is why we think, longer term, if the ceo can turn things
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around, we think it's positive for your holdings. we think the risk-reward is enough to go ahead and take a chance >> there are a lot of risks even for a small portion in your portfolio. how would you weigh devoting stock to intel as opposed to other stocks that look better. >> victoria is much more patient than i am. management at intel executing a turn around will probably take longer than anybody thought and is probably losing shares to competitors in the process we like a japanese company called tokyo electronics they don't compete directly with intel, but they are in better space. they are steadily becoming a
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leading global country across tech, environmental initiatives and targeting with all their costs, margins of about 30%. i like that type of business where you are seeing growth and improvements i can get it now i don't have to be patient like victoria i prefer to go elsewhere i hear her there is probably value along the way, but i am not as patient >> grasso? >> intel can be shocking and exciting it ran from december to april about 51%. not to say it would do it again. i would play the favorites, nvidia and amd if they break this level right here, they both break out. >> coming up, a double dose of stock movers feel stuck with your finances? ♪ ♪
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welcome back cleveland cliffs with their best day since june jeff, you are watching this one. >> we saw some reports earlier in the week on u.s. steel that put this on my radar i believe cleveland cliffs is a little unique in terms of revenue model. goldman sachs had a double down. they talked about investments and pressure on free cash flows and pressure on steel prices next year and how that is likely
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to affect their price model. i think with cleveland cliffs it is a different story because they are less exposed to steel spot prices. they think their average selling price in 2022 is going to be higher than 2021, something different than a lot of steel producers. i think you could see this one make new highs shortly >> a buzz kill for investors to choose in. beyond meat closing at its lowest level since may of last year victoria, i understand you have a small short position do you still have it how much pain do you think this will feel? >> we still have our short position on beyond meat. it is not that we don't think plant based products won't do well, but beyond meat doesn't
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have any proprietary formula don't do their own manufacturing. their competitors do the manufacturing for them when you look at comparisons between beyond meat and impossible foods, just between the texture and taste of the food, impossible foods seems to do better with competitors if tyson wants to play in this space, i think they can do it easier, quicker and cheaper than beyond meat. we don't think the stock is worth that he would think we will continue to see it go down. >> i thought that was a proprietary formula, i say jokingly nadine we have been short it in the past snot now -- not now.
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it is 26% short. you have to becareful on the technicals, but victoria is right. what i didn't like about this prerelease was they cited so many factors for the disappointment, you don't know where to look first. and no guidance that these things are going to stop now there is lingering concern that all of the things they pointed to today are going to continue to affect their numbers tomorrow i think you will see it continuing paying, but the technicals give me pause to remain short like this >> grasso? >> i never liked it. i thought it was not a healthier alternative, loaded with fat and sodium and i have always believed that tyson is a better bet.
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i believe they will come up with their own channels and already have the distribution channel in place. that is up year-to-date and i would stick with that. >> time for the final trade. victoria >> i feel like i should support intel, but i am going with goldman sachs. we have loan growth going up i think that's a great way to play that. >> nadine? >> ice they have a strong and sticky data business, raising prices, but i would wait to get closer to 127.50. >> steven grasso >> not my final trade, but i am going with dow >> it's one stock in the final trade, final stock singular.
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jeff mills, final trade, singular >> the value guy slowly becoming a growth guy we all know the story. salesforce has been stuck for about a year looks like the stock will reassert itself. >> that does it for us this week until the 6:00 special don't go anywhere. "options action" up next esg is responsible investing. who's responsible for building esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve,
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it's friday afternoon here at the market in times scare "option action" coming up. >> there is a children's book in which letters of the alphabet fall into a coconut tree and full down and ge

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