sooner than feds you are fearful of a currency collapse if inflation gets out >> they can't afford to be more patient. they will want flexibility with the statement next week. you have to move fast. >> it will be a juicy fed meeting next week. i cannot wait. that will do it for us "fast money" begins right now. >> this is "fast money." i'm melissa lee. tonight's lineup -- tim seymour will join us in moments. tonight the trillion dollars test will earnings send stocks soaring? speaking of cards, the chart master said it's time to put the brakes on this auto stock.

and later, gil simon presenting his best idea at this year's conference. he will break down his top pick. an earnings alert. ford shares are jumping in after hours session. le let's jump straight to phil lebeau >> they are popping. reported earnings of 51 cents a share. the street was expecting 27 cents a share. forget about the fact revenue was a smidge under expectation earnings beat by 24 cents. their earnings adjusted ebit margin 8.4% stronger q4 sales, raising their 2021 profit target the new full year target is

10 1/2 to 11 1/2 that's another reason why shares move higher. what about the chip loutlook? during the call he said it is improving and will compare in the fourth quarter compared to third quarter. he said it will decrease in intensity but it will last in 2022, and it may linger into 2023 that hasn't scared people. it expects 40 to 45 billion in spending between now and 2025 for the bve battery electric investments. there are substantial investments ford will be making. no change in its full year finally, the company will be

reinstating its quarterly dividend it will be 10 cents a share for shareholders of record remember, they got rid of the dividend in march of last year right when the pandemic was beginning. they had no idea what would happen they needed to save that, but now they have reinstated it, 10 cents a share for those of record on november 19. >> this feels so different between general motors and ford. significant improvements in q3 is what ford saw it feels like a very different story from what gm painted this morning. >> it is a different picture and the ceo was asked about that he said i think the difference might be that ford was hit by the plant fire in the second quarter. remember when they had to drop down and bring down their

guidance because their chip supply was so dramatically hit in the third quarter we heard from general motors, a resurgence of covid cases and a plant shut down in malaysia. we shouldn't be surprised there is a little different take in terms of what is happening from one auto maker to the next gm was not as impacted and that's the flip here in the third quarter. >> phil, keep us posted. the conference call is under way. it feels like a different story. tim, do you feel the same way about ford and gm? >> when you talk about semiconductors and second quarter shipments up 67% -- excuse me third quarter up 67% over second quarter. ford is able to talk about a

softenening. this is not what you heard from gm they crushed the number, didn't just beat the street but crushed the number they reiterated this 40 to 45 billion in expenditures or maybe they underscored that. i think it shows the commitment to ev and some of the technology that are giving ford a boost are they better run than gm? who knows. gm cut loss leading businesses faster than ford and improved sensitive production change. this is an exciting day for ford they can talk about commodity costs being higher, no big deal. the other night we talked about this and probably didn't pay attention that ford owns a chu

of ribdian >> so is ford or gm a better investment >> i think it's ford maybe you are splitting hairs. we have talked about this for a while on valuation alone a lot of people say -- one of the points we made is you can get to the poison nt where they too cheap. i think $20 puts them high on the street prior to this i think it was 11 to 18. in the next couple days you will see analysts ratcheting up their numbers on valuation you are talking about an $18 to $20 stock. to me that's where it's going. for me it's ford

>> steve, what is your take away and what would you want to know? >> ford was riddled with delays. i want to know how the rollout of the electrified f-150 is going. but from a semiconductor standpoint, tesla is the platinum standard, then ford and then gm. but if you think ford is cheap, gm is cheaper. ford is up 82% gm is up roughily 32 and change i think what we heard was that she is talking to the semiconductor companies much we haven't heard that from ford she thinks that q1 of 2022 things are going to look better. ford is kicking that out phil lebeau said we are looking at a story that will be prevalent as far as chip shortages through the entire

2022 year. i think ford is probably maxed out here guy hit it on the head, 18 to 20 is where the street is as far as price target as far as putting new money to work i would put it in gm for a catch-up trade >> pete, if you had to put new money in the market right now, what would it be >> i would go to ev and i would go to tesla. you like a lot of the various names out there. i like xping, some of the chinese names as well. but this ford number is impressive they were able to separate themselves when we are talking about the semiconductors that was huge for the quarter. their guidance was strong. and the spending i think the commitment they are making towards the battery side of things, $15 billion, that

seems impressive to me i am still curious about the rollout of the f-150 i think that will be interesting from the electric side i want to see how that is going and progressing. we know chips are an issue pricing is part of the deal as well the pricing power of both gm and ford, but specifically ford. i think that's impressive, to see the fact that they are able to swallow what they are doing and expanding and able to pass along some of this when we look at some of the transactions of the vehicles, very impressive for ford >> we will keep you posted on any developments there monster moves and alphabet sends the nasdaq to a new record the two tech titans posting

their biggest gains in months. the market now faces a 4 trillion test. apple and amazon on deck tomorrow after the bell. if these two names deliver, could this be the green light for market highs ahead guy, we have had this conversation in some shape or form for years is it still going to be the key here does it not matter what else goes on as long as we have the biggest leaders in the market and moving higher? >> i think it does matter. although we talk about these stocks, rightly so, by the way, there are other things driving it as well but to answer your questions specifically, i think it will be the all clear sign although the price check was miserable, the numbers out of facebook and google and

microsoft which was ridiculous given their size and scope, lead me to believe you will see similar in terms of apple and amazon i think amazon might set up better but the apple has been impressive as well they have carried the broader market and nothing to suggest they will change anytime soon. >> pete? >> i agree with guy. you look at apple. obviously they have their own issues everybody is talking about chips, but when you look at amazon, the first thing that comes to mind is aws when you listen to the call and how impressive these are, i think that will translate to amazon as well amazon looking forward, i think that should be a quality quarter we should be looking at. apple, there are a few bumps in the road this stock made a nice run late,

but it has been floundering around i am expecting not to see as big of a move out of apple but i think amazon could look like microsoft looked today. >> there are concerns for apple about supply chain issues hampering the holiday quarter. that will be a big issue in tomorrow's call. >> i think we factored that in the stock, to guy's point, has jumped from there. amazon's chart does not look as good as apple's chart. microsoft's chart looks better than both of those but the three of those names are roughly 30%. if they rally, they drag the market along with them this had more to do with the ten-year yield action than anything else. so when you see it go from 1.77

to 1.55, i don't think rates are going to rip i said months ago i think deflation will be prevalent versus inflation we have the cost of milk and gasoline, that's more a supply chain shock. i believe you will see large cap tech rip and see the overall mark get rip as well >> tim, that got you concerned about the market >> i think outside of microsoft and google, we know what the percentage is. that's 18% they held everything up and by the end of the day the market was selling off. this is the fast money call because i think ultimately the feds direction is looking what will dictate where markets will be and how aggressive. we have gotten some inflation

and reads into why they may be well behind the curve. bank of canada put the stop on it we are stopping. when you look at the curve, everybody knows this affects the banks. but it tells you where the market is starting to price ahead of where the fed is. that's something to be watchful of other parts of the cyclical sub sectors, transports didn't do so well the banks for some of the yield curve reasons. industrials were heavy you have an s&p over 7%, and the vix closed up 8 or 9%, but it's still absurdly low as we set this up for tomorrow, amazon and apple, and amazon is

probably the most important stock because it has done almost nothing. the comps are difficult for them until you get into the first and second quarter next year i do think between the yield curve and equity markets that have run far, it makes the bar high for both those companies, one that has run far, one that has done nothing and i think the expectations are low >> i think only a handful of times in history we have had this, but that is the world we live in. we look at other central banks around the world and wonder if they will beat the feds in terms of tightening and raising rates. >> bank of new zealand about a month or so ago did similar. a lot of people are putting brakes on and probably rightly so given some of the moves we

have seen. commodities specifically my sense is it is not going to force this fed's hand. they are the granddaddy of them all, but it makes it difficult to push it out tim makes a great point. i do think that flattening today is probably why in retrospect the market sold off late >> coming up, slamming the brakes carter says it's time to hit the sell button on this toau stock and shares of mcdonald's trading higher [suitcase closing] [gusts of wind] [ding] [uplifting music playing]

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year-to-date >> operating margins the comps blew away the street numbers. we have been pretty steadfast on mcdonald's i don't want to cast dispersions, but i would be willing to bet that mcdonald's doesn't need ibm as much as ibm needs mcdonald's i don't know how much faster it will be, but i know how fast it is when i go through >> same store sales were monster, up 14.6% year on 2019 so prepared to prepandemic levels it has revved higher by 14.5%, pete. >> when you look at the check growth, all of the categories, you check the box and mcdonald's is doing everything right.

in a lot of ways they are maneuvering themselves like when we talk about chipotle they have the digital side, drive-through side, a lot of categories and they keep adding to the menu. they have added the plant products and gone deeper into chicken this past year they are doing everything right, seeing customers come in when you look at revenue growth, for a very mature company, they are hitting everything just about right. you have to be impressed with the numbers that mcdonald's is putting out. that's why it is up significantly and why it can hold on to this pe level that it is, about a 24 >> once upon a time, tim, we sent you to mcdonald's to check out a burger but get back to partnerships and getting through the

drive-through faster, people who don't want to touch anything in a restaurant, getting cars to move faster could have huge benefits in terms of sales >> if guy is in his camaro in the line in front of me, i'm going to burger king because it will take a long time. if you think about what they have done with their menu. they have raised prices. the loyalty program and marketing, they are hitting a slightly different demographic i mean a younger demographic, gen z. the celebrities they are choosing, technology, menu revamp and they have raised prices i think they are able to get through a higher food cost environment and pass that along. the u.s. comps are extraordinary. the international comps were

extraordinary. it is not expensive. you push back on valuation, i think it's interesting, the stock has underperformed the s&p. i think this is a very good time for the golden arches much. >> we are just getting started on "fast money." the sohn conference is under way. and one manager is laying out his next best idea plus avis hitting all green lights this year, but the chart master says it might be time for a pit stop, why this stock could be hitting the skids [suitcase closing] [gusts of wind] [ding]

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welcome back to "fast money. zil low, shares moving higher. it is said the stock could hit $350 in the next through years lets. >> i am with gil thank you for being here after that presentation for sohn on zillow the market appears to be pricing in some macroproducts and other things with shares down 50% since its highs. >> that's why we pitched it.

we love there is a short-term disconnect from the long-term story. he would get it. the short-term disconnect relates to the real estate market not declining, but cooling off, as well as zillow ramping up this ibuying function it reminds me of tesla in the early days when they would shut down their model three manufacturing lines. people would mock them when they had to build a tent outside their factory to try to ramp up manufacturing, not trivial but the big picture idea is what is appealing to us what we see is the nature -- or the way consumers in this country transact in the real estate market is totally going to change. this three-month process of hiring realtors and staging your

home, negotiating, fixing, 30-day closing which is such a headache for consumers, there is a big opportunity to optimize that experience and a couple of companies really focused on that we think this is the company that's going to win that effort. we think the long-term view is extremely compelling it could be much bigger than a four-bagger over time and he would like the fact there are short-term question marks around it >> are you concerned that the short-term question marks could turn into long-term question marks? zillow said on october 18 that it was pausing making new offers to buy new homes while it works through the backlog related to supply chain issues and labor issues are those things you think are temporary and will work themselves out or is there a

chance this could be a broader issue with regard to its algorithms in terms of pricing for the homes? >> i think the labor issue is a well-known issue for a lot of industries right now that's what they called out. this is a highly complex transaction to try to take under one roof think if you are building this function in phoenix or ft. lauderdale you have to build out local teams that go and adjust the local home prices, contractors and repair workers that can service those homes so you can turn them in a decide time frame. like a lot of industries, clearly there is a labor shortage it's not unique to these companies. what gives us confidence is the creation value where you can sell your home over a shorter period of time at a higher

proceeds to the seller that is our guiding focus. this company has a great management team. rich barton who came back to run the company a few years ago, he's one of the co-founders, we are confident they can iterate >> it's melissa lee. gil, i'm glad you mentioned the management team. i think you mentioned phoenix or arizona, but in one report they say unlike other i buyers, zillow ramped up purchases and tried to sell them at lower prices

it seems like management missed the market what confidence do you have that they got hold of that problem and this won't repeat itself >> this is already a tricky problem to solve think about a couple of factors that have made it more complicated in the short run, one is how dynamic prices have been moving. they screened higher over the past 18 months since covid started. it's not trivial to try to figure out how to buy homes in this market. it's an unusual backdrop to be trying to accelerate this business and in the labor shortage we talked about not surprising that they could have some issues also they are, to it be fair, learning a little bit from behind open door which is their largest competitor, has a few-year head start on them. that's the reality of it

zillow has to be a fast follower and iterate. they are adding 40% to their head count this year, which is about 2,000 employees to build out these teams and local muscle so this analogy is something akin to tesla building the factory. it doesn't change at the end of the day they have to have the right product that resonates with consumers >> gil, your portfolio has a number of pandemic winners netflix, uber, zoom. i am told there are new ideas with road blocks an inflection point for names that were bifurcated over the past year or so. >> sure.

it's hard to paint a broad brush. if we were talking six months ago, it would look like netflix looked like its best days in 2020 why would you own that in 2021 the contents slate and because they weren't able to make content for six months, suddenly picked up and now the stock has been up 30% in the past six weeks or so. it's hard to paint with a broad brush. on the other hand you have something like zoom which is down over 50% from its highs last year. that's another covid winner where people are worried about the short-term dynamics. we think that the long-term opportunity is so compelling with zoom while everyone is agonizing over the short-term numbers. there are those kinds of ideas that some are really working and some are not for us it's just trying to find the right entry point.

our largest positioned to, another consumer company which is uber. covid was great for the food delivery business. it's bigger than the ride stream business ride stream is recovering nicely, but not in a linear fashion. we had delta variant how do you exactly project out the ride stream business for a global company like uber what we're excited about is over the next year or two, getting ride sharing and food delivery, which is here to stay, going in the same direction at the same time that's almost never happened for this company at that point we think that will

satisfy -- or answer a lot of the questions, unit economics and how profitable can uber really be at scale it's stock by stock formulation and we are just finding to find the right entry point. >> uber, another company plagued by labor issues. if you have tried to get one lately, you would know it is not as easy as it once was thank you, gil and tomorrow we will be sitting down with glen who also spoke at sohn. leslie picker covering the phone conference in the regular session. after hours is up 2.4% almost a wash here tim? >> i like the call

it is a nonconsensus call. a lot was made out of the i-buyer business being paused. their listing business is strong and a high margin ad business too that i think is overlooked the stock is not as expensive as it once was, but relative to the growth i think investors in hedge fund managers are looking for guys to do the work and aren't necessarily in the consensus calls. i think that's an interesting play >> grasso? >> i think a bifpivot off the business model and strategy. most investors don't realize and sell it first and ask questions later, but gil laid out a coherent entry point for the stock. if you lock from the lows to the

recent highs, you come up with a 6.18 retracement we are right there $90 is the holy grail and where the 50-day moving average lays up the technicals, this is a huge level for technicals if it holds, the stock could really rip ford in after hours is climbing, up about 7%. phil has more commentary from that call. >> a strong earnings call with analysts, that's what we are hearing from ford between the ceo and cfo. what you are hearing is a very strong representation of where they believe ford is right now and where it is headed in fact, a couple of comments, they were asked about 2022 they both said they believed it would be a strong year they are not putting any targets out there for 2022 we won't get that until february

in terms of financial guidance, but they also believe that ford is in the midst of a transformation, transforming away from what it used to be for decades where they build models, sell them to dealers and you and i go out there and say i will buy that one they are transitioning to a model where you and i will look, whether at a ford dealership or on line, we will look at a model and customize it and then you will go to the order bank. they talked about how much the order bank has grown it's that type of discussion with the analysts getting a lot of attention in terms of chip supply they were asked how much they expected to improve. they said probably 10% next year but they expect the severity of the chip shortage to ease throughout the year. they expect it to last through

2022, they expect the severity to ease sequentially month by month as they go throughout the year >> as we talked, shares continue to go up is it possible for a stock that has gone up 77% year-to-date, for it to warn a further -- warrant a further rerating >> i think so. you will see analysts raise their price targets i would imagine from 18 to 25. can it go higher absolutely i think this makes it a six-year high i think last time we saw this was march of 2015. i think you will see it continue to grind higher.

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car rental company avis hit the skids. if you have road this all of the way up, our stock master says it may be time to get out because it may be headed down. let's go to carter worth >> this has beena whopper, but as is the case so often, commodities get ahead of themselves it's too much of a good thing. you saw it in lumber and moderna. can they go higher sure but they always end the same way. excess gets expunged the first chart is three-year with the 150 moving average. the stock has doubled in the past eight weeks 90 to 180, trading higher above

its moving average the next charlot, this is the a chart with more excess and third and final is a 30-year chart. it has been exceptional. yes, there are probably stories of a bubble in used cars or shortages in this. it goes on and on. and global problems with ports but at some point you are priced for perfection interestingly, on the street they think it's worth 125 to 192 in the next month. the stock is trading at 180. so at a minimum, take some profits or do something. >> excess gets expunged. steve grasso

you once were in this name and made bold predictions where it would go what is the status now >> i am not in it anymore much you look at the chart, you get forced out of this stock quickly in a good way. but the major metric that goes into this stock for valuation is the fleet pricing. so as carter alluded to, if fleet pricing is through the roof and used car prices are through the roof, then this should be through the roof as well it is. it is not absurdly priced given the landscape we are in, but everything we heard from ford and gm, you have to believe that the chip shortage is the worst it's going to be now if that subsides, then this stock comes in because the fleet prices come in i would be selling it. i agree with carter. oddly enough, the rsi, relative strength index, is only at 71

and it's up 115% so i would be a seller along with carter. >> hertz is also ramping up and leaning on the competition where do you stand on avis >> you look at that chart and it does scare you off i look at the volatility of options and they are extremely high as well we used to look at tesla as extremely high volatility. i think steve is right i think there will be opportunities, but i would wait for a ullback. i think there will be a pullback i think that would be the opportunity. i don't think you need to chase the name after this incredible run to the upside. i think you are trying to push too hard for something that will give you another opportunity lower than it is right now >> coming up, is that plane ticket too expensive american airlines and a firm

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welcome back to "fast money. a new way to fly affirm announcing a deal with american airlines where they will split the cost for travelers into monthly payments. buy now, pay later is catching the world by storm >> it is not something new i thought the problem with this was that names like affirm would get whacked. then i watched jim cramer's interview i think on the 30th of september and they made the case if rates went higher, their product would be more appealing. it has had a huge run. i think morgan stanley is positive on them

i think you stay with affirm >> i would think the credit card companies would hurt if affirm does better, your rate on your card is going to go up >> no doubt. this is a great example of an incredible industry they have found another way to get into it i think it's really interesting. i think affirm is a company that will someday make money, but i think it will be a challenge competition is out there this is an interesting way to try to change things but it has to be done in the right way or these companies will have themselves in a really difficult fogs position at some point in time if the economy turns against them >> tim, your quick take? >> i think it's a great idea obviously, there are plenty of other industries where this type of option makes sense. i think buy now, pay later

continues to gain significant momentum i think the consumer in a year will have a very different position in terms of their balance sheet at home. i do think stocks will be vulnerable this, to me, is no different than putting out a credit card at some level even though the rate level is higher on a credit card stock is not cheap i think we priced into the secular trend and i would not buying this one. jim cramer is investing in mastercard coming up, options traders are gearing up for the market report wealth is shutting down the office for mike's retirement party. worth is giving the employee who spent

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welcome back we are gearing up for another big show with a ton of earnings after the bell let's go to mike >> options calls are outpacing

puts two to one. but it should be said that is the average over the past 28 days or so it is indicating that the stock may move higher or lower by about 3% some were buying upside cheap calls. one of the trades i saw that was interesting, the november 26 weekly, one institutional buyer spend 3$3.35 for 1,000. >> mike, thank you for that. for more tune into the full show friday at 5:30 eastern time. ford is up by more than 9% right now. up next, final trade ♪

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so, should all our it move to the cloud? the cloud would give us more flexibility, but we lose control. ♪ ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go? ♪

and we need insights across our data silos, but how? ♪ if i go there will be trouble ♪ ♪ ♪ wait, we can stay and go. hpe greenlake is the platform that brings the cloud to us. ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪ ♪ ♪ final trade time tim? >> whirlpool with higher margins. buy whirlpool. >> steve >> visa and mastercard get hurt

by affirm. who doesn't? american express buy them >> peter >> coca-cola the stock is going higher. off a higher report. "mad moneyr starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. my job is to not only train you but ed indicate you. call me or tweet me at jim cramer there's no denying facebook,