i can't wait for a 3:30 a.m. wake-up. >> it's going to be hard to close at a record high to close out the week >> it will amazon is down microsoft and alphabet are hanging in there it seems as if it is isolated, but we will have to see. >> we will see if the market judges those supply train issues to be transitory or not. >> thisis "fast money. i'm melissa bell tonight we are all over the after hours action, amazon, apple and starbucks. apple's call just getting underway amazon's kicks off in less than 30 minutes we are dialed in

plus merck is popping. one of ours says this rally is just getting started we start off with an earnings alert on apple the shares are down to the tune of 3.5%. >> let's get to the results. the results are 1.24 revenue of $83 billion versus $84 billion. se ipad was 2.85 billion. i had a chance to catch up with apple's ceo tim cook he talked about supply

challenges the company is facing tim cook said longer than expected supply chain results are estimated to be around $6 billion. cook told me those have completely improved and cook said the chip shortages linger on it is unclear how long they will last it is complex. you have to know how the economy is going to be in 2022 we are all competing for chips as for the outlook cook told me they expect solid year over year revenue growth and expect supply constraints to be greater than the september quarter. despite that, cook told me they are projecting a solid revenue growth on the ipad and mac, with students returning to school and employees back at office, cook told me both of those have had major announcements last week

with mac book pro. he did say they are in deep backlog. ipad is also terribly constrained. cook told me he is more focused on supply than demand. c conference call kicks off now. >> what was the feeling about where the economy is in 2022 it almost sounds like will the chip supply ease that's a question. >> different ceos have been on cnbc trying to gauge when this could ease cook is not willing to step into that i flat out asked him when do you think this could ease. is there a date out there? first half, second half. he said too many factors to make an honest legitimate call given the economy and competitors.

we will see what he says on the call >> we will look forward to you keeping us posted. thank you, josh lipton >> karen, i will go to you first. what did you make of this quarter? >> is it a sale delayed or sale denied that's $6 billion. had they gotten that revenue that would have been a huge bead i think the stock being down here is a bit of an overreaction to me i thought the quarter was good the ipad being constrained, i will be interested to hear more what they say about that i thought the quarter was fine i think it's not a shock that there are supply constraint problems here. the magnitude of the problems is bigger than i thought.

i think it talks about -- addresses demand is there. i'm long apple, staying long apple. if it trades down lower than now, maybe 140, i will probably buy more >> it is sort of a fine line when he says the supply constraint cost will be greater, but solid revenue growth is expected year on year to an all-time record. tim, doyou say we are poised t be okay in the calendar fourth quarter. do we look through this calendar third quarter results? >> i think you look through the results. we have a massive 5g refresh cycle going on and growth in services 25% plus growth in services year over year, nothing to sneeze at. two years ago we would have done cartwheels this isn't a big surprise for

apple. the problem is this stock came in high. the supply chain disruption conversation, similar to what we got last quarter great execution and performance, solid margins, too i think we heard about vietnam, the camera module, some of the things that have been greater disruptions than expected. yes, this was a bit more but this is a company on the capital market side in terms of what they can give back and where they are in this refresh cycle, the company deserves a premium i don't think you run far. >> jeff? >> i think you have to have a little bit of imagination when thinking about a company like this lots of companies dealing with this supply chain issues i don't think it will go away soon, but i think this will be a

qua quarter without a catalyst looking throughout 2022 you will see strong growth and apple is probably in an advantage from this supply standpoint because they get preferential treatment given their size this quarter probably isn't going to settle the debate in terms of will they return the type of investment investors expect this is can't keep up with demand story on the positive side investors will give apple the benefit of the doubt. probably not going to push the stock higher, but they will probably not get punished substantially. wearables, only 13% of iphone owners have a watch.

this will grow going forward, it just may take time >> this stock is away from its all time high. what are we looking to as we look to 2022 and seeing the uncertainty in supply chain. >> it is not a great setup i don't think there was anything horrible remember the former ceo of cisco saying the things they could control, they control well they are doing that. we have come to expect that. tim mentioned the stock is up 10%. it has underperformed the nasdaq, up 15% on the year obviously less than that i think the implied guidance is something that will become a focus here the stock is trading 27 times. they have already had the rerating, the benefit of the gross margin bump from a high of

38% to 41% when they miss iphone sales -- have you checked out the advertising for the 13 pro, it is all about the camera. i don't see that super cycle happening. i don't think that has been going on but when installed doesn't grow, it's not going to be a bigger number yes, they had the benefit of the mixed shift and margins, but when you look at expected growth in 2022 of flat earnings, despite all of the stock they buy back and sales that are expected to be up low single digits, i just don't see an argument why you should be paying 27 times for this i think there are better growth stories out there. the last point i will make is look what we have tonight from amazon and apple versus microsoft and alphabet a couple

days ago it is an argument of bits versus atom, and that's the thing that should weigh on these two names tonight. >> let's bring in -- great to have you with us >> for the most part, i think they are going to capture supply -- i like to think of it as 2021 pain is 2022 sales gains. we need to peel back some of the layers if i can briefly do that and use josh's reporting as my framework, i think it was incredibly insightful, his conversation with tim cook if we apply those comments, essentially they would have beat

by a little bit for the september quarter. they would have guided september. i am using a solid growth number of 5% as my benchmark. that gets to 12% year over year number i want to fast forward i wrapped around the numbers in the near term and missed the bigger picture we had a difficult comp in december, much more difficult than meets the eye they are kofrpg against the irn phone shift in timing a year ago. that's 50 or 60% of their revenue and still they will have 5% growth with an increasing supply chain you put all of this together, the growing companies call it 10% plus, 10 or 12% plus

dan is right, most people think next year could be flat-ish. if we take anything away from the results, this company -- something bigger is going on here i have been a long time positive on what apple's trajectory is. but this is significant. it will impact all of 2022 and beyond i think apple will -- we will be surprised by their revenue growth next year i think it will be closer to 10% than 4%. >> gene, there was belief there would be a lower cost iphone unveiled in 2022 for every iphone delayed, could that be down converted to a low cost phone and therefore impact margins and mix? >> what we have seen in the past

is when they have tweaked around the asps and typically they do that by taking old life phones and keeping them on sale we see continued gravitation higher i think if they come out with a new form -- i don't know if that will happen, but to me it feels more like expanding the market to say we are dependent on these devices is an understatement i think people recognize that when they are paying up for these. >> gene, great to get your insight. apple shares are down 3.55%. the company's call kicks off in about 17 minutes on amazon

>> amazon is negative on the year the labor shortage and supply chain disruption the company not expecting those head winds to ease we are told he expects $4 billion in labor and disruption in the fourth quarter, doubling from the third quarter amazon has to hire an additional 250,000 workers globally for the busy holiday season. they are offering an average starting wage of $18 plus a signing bonus. meanwhile it is under macropressures and tough pandemic comps but that includes subscription services back to you. >> when i saw the headlines

crossing, i thought dollar signs, dollar signs, stepping up investments on content, hiring will be costly they will do everything in their power to minimize destruction to customers, but in the short run isn't that costly? tim, what's your take? >> after coming after an historic fulfillment spend this was a top line story forever, all you wanted to see, the growth -- the numbers weren't that bad if you think about cost profile, yes, the labor numbers are staggering this is a stock that came into this earnings very different than apple it has been dead since july of 2020 people have been disappointed by thetop line over the last

couple quarters. it is the bottom line surprising me because it is a company that should be rewarded for this enormous spend they were so far ahead of everybody in e-commerce. this has been a tough place to hang out while the rest of nasdaq had a run amazon negative on a one-year basis and dead money for months. amazon is the biggest play when expectations are so low. >> when they are in spending mode, investors deem them initially, but then they get rewarded dan, are we looking at short-term costs, but it gives an advantage >> when you look at $18 and signing bonuses, this is andy

jaffe's second quarter as head of the company, he said we will look at short-term for long-term profits. i think they are doing the right thing. i think he will put his stamp on this company anything that happens near term -- he was specific abou using that language in his press release -- i don't think he cares if the stock is 3300 or 3100 he will layout his vision. you just have to think about tim cook andy jassy will have his moment. i think investors would love to

see this >> every step of the way from when a product is manufactured to when a product gets on the shelf, being one that can deliver product to your door in time for the holiday season, that could really help that business as opposed to some others which might face more problems because they haven't invested the same in their logistics. >> and they can't. they can't afford to invest the same amazon can afford to spend anything i agree with just about every single word dan said including the most important thing from the release. i think that is the most important thing. he is not worried about this quarter. i think the guide was a little light on the top line, but they have done that before. the range is a $10 billion which for them is not a lot of money, but for others it would be

i am not overly concerned. spend, spend, spend. but we have to think are they good stewards of capital i think clearly they are i am inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt one thing that is interesting -- i saw chatter about maybe this is the end of the pandemic neither walmart or target were trading down on this i don't know if people view this as i haddio sin krat i can or i don't know i am long. >> dead money compared to its tech peers, it has been flat the entire year. why thisreaction

>> maybe this shouldn't be terribly surprising. i think we have hit on the key points in terms of the investment cycle -- and tim mentioned this -- they are investing in physical infrastructure. the last was aws i think it was easier for investors to visualize the pay out there. karen said it. i think amazon has earned the benefit of the doubt as capital allocator. with the low end there, i think four times price of sale is reasonable and the point about the holiday season is important. they are the most important website for shopping during the holiday season they have invested heavily to prepare for this it does give them a big

advantage and the supply crunch may help them take market share over the next quarter. >> we are just getting started up next we are all over the after hours action on starbucks. plus, we will go what is in a name as facebook announces a big makeover it's like to get your money right. so, should all our it move to the cloud?

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welcome back the call is under way and kate has details. >> a slight miss on revenues despite reporting a new record of 8.51 billion for the quarter. globally up 17%, slightly below estimates. up 11% on a two-year stack this thanks to an increase in transactions and check sizes china decreased by 7% but were up 17% for the full year china is their second home market we saw china's results last

night. starbucks guided for short comps in china as you said, the call is underway the ceo sounds upbeat about the quarter and it outing these results about head winds thanks to its beverage lineup, also focusing on labor challenges it said it plans to hike pay for workers. by summer 2022 pay will be nearly $17 an hour stock is lower today and up about 3% year-to-date. >> thanks. tim, whatdid you make of the quarter? >> i love that on a two-year stack it's up 11% and think of the two years they have gone through. i am not that worried about the numbers in china this is a covid headwind

look at the share price. you are down 11 or 12% off the 52-week high all of this i think is well priced in. the labor makes you worry a little about the gross margins up another 25% this has been a major driver and it should be higher prices, et cetera we have had these moments. this is not a big moment you can't tell me there is one thing you just heard that wasn't in the price in my view. >> wages higher. karen, talking about margins all of the costs have gone up, whether energy costs, food costs, dairy, whatever it is, higher what is your take on this at a multiple of about 30 times forward. >> it certainly has run.

i am lukewarm on this. china was disappointing but explainable by covid i think they said 80% of its stores were impacted by covid. i am concerned about china outside of covid given what is happening in china i think there is pressure on consumers there. that makes me a little bit wary. they did re-align some of their sales. it doesn't make a big deal that they put latin america into internationals it deserves a premium, has a premium. i am lukewarm and i would sell this in favor of something else. i am not sure what yet it's fine. fine isn't good enough >> the china consumer mark is a big one. you think about household wealth in china is tied closely to real

estate, two markets that have gotten hammered. >> if i look at the chart it's holding the 200 day, at least it was. it is still expensive. you are hearing a lot of the same things, cost of sales up, some comps light i agree with karen the risk-reward isn't bad. you should see support around 110 and that's right where it's trading. you think about the china story, i think it has been punished for that already you are talking about 70%-plus u.s. exposure. not that china isn't important, but the u.s. may be more so. it is still a good company, a tremendous brand much i would focus -- i would look to buy more but not until you get at

around 100 which is pre-covid high >> here is what is coming up next the consumer heading for an oil slick? not just yet where you can find value as oil prices climb plus facebook going metta, literally. the name change. from coupons to lower-cost options. plus, earn up to 50 dollars extrabucks rewards each year just for filling. at cvs pharmacy.

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session. take a look at our chart of the day. ripping higher, the 32 year treasury spread. the flattest it has been all year tim, what does this tell you >> that's pretty incredible, especially when you think about the peak in yields in the last three weeks -- you have seen the shortened of the curve. inter day i think got near 57 but closed below 50. the chart you are showing here, this is a dramatic reassessment of where interest rates are going. it is the long end you worry about. what this is telling you where clearly they are moving without the fed. ultimately we have seen central

banks, talked about them with the bank of canada or bank of new zealand or central bank this morning. hiking rates and beating the fed to it. the dynamics, everything we have heard around systemic inflation, market service inflation tells us where this is moving. we talk about sensitivity of banks, something investors need to be watching >> karen, to connect the dots, the factit is flattening and the spread is tight, the market is anticipating higher rates in the near term but not accompanied by longer term growth, right? how should we read this? >> i think that's right or higher rates because of inflation and maybe inflation abating after that i think your guess of it being about growth is probably right i don't think banks -- they are

set up to be long two year, long two and short 30s, i don't think that's how they are set up but the market perceives that. it doesn't change my view of banks. >> let's look at oil do you think the oil surprise spike is shaking investors or saying think again the number two technical analyst on wall street chris, what are you looking at >> melissa, i think certainly crude, 60 bucks to 85 bucks over the last two months, 40% move and crude, tangential to that, it's natural to ask what impact does that have on consumer stocks that's the question we are getting every day. what level oil starts to weigh on some of these names i don't think that's the best question to ask.

i think what we want to do is look how the market is interpreting oil i brought along some charts. the first one is an important look this is the relationship between discretionary and staple this is the average discretionary name relative to the average consumer staple. this has continued to work higher despite crew at 85, oil at vig, you haven't seen it. this will be an important guide for us so far it is saying the consumer can handle $85 crude we don't know what level oil is a problem. i think this relationship will help answer that over time what names can we buy against this backdrop? we brought along four that we like much the first marriott

looking at this over the last five years 155 to 160 has major resistance. i think it punches through and gives you a near term target of somewhere in the 190 level marriott has 23 analysts that cover it, only 7 buys. i think as the stock breaks out you will see the sell side grade up another stock stuck in the 100 to 120 range i think it will break out here look how the relative performance has turned while it hasn't broken out, it is starting to outperform the market, best buy and r and l. it retested in september it held. we think it turns back up.

it traded at 125 today i think it's on its way to 140 lastly, we would be remiss if we didn't think about our favorite name and group that $18 level going back ten years has been a major level let it come back to the 15.50 or 16 range we think it is bibluyable on an pullback i think the message of the market is $85 crude is not a problem yet. >> chris, always great to see you. traders choice dan, do you like any of these picks? say poo-poo to them? >> i like a lot of them. i agree on the ford. it will take a little time, but there will be an epic breakout coming in the not so distant

future, get a bit of the tesla picksie dust valuation and i like the marriott especially if we have the pandemic in the rearview mirror any time soon. >> jeff, what do you like? >> i want to stay in the higher end retail space in terms of energy, i don't think it's catastrophic for the consumer, but it hurts the lower end. 6% for the lower end i think there is skew there. i think the impact of price change is going to hit lower i think around $4 in gasoline, we are not there yet we talk about am ex earnings, good spend volumes is that an indication of the consumer maybe. when you think about gap, kohl's stocks that got killed, they are

cheap now but i would stay away from the higher end retail space. coming up, facebook changing its name details next > us>>pl merck moving higher, jumping more than 6% today traders are digging into that one, next. hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing customers our best dealsevery i, including up to $800 off the epic iphone 13 and iphone 13 pro.

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welcome back to "fast money. facebook announcing today its new name would be meta. the stock got a 3% bump on the news but pulled back into the close virtually staying flat karen, does this make any difference at all to you >> would a rose not stink by any other name meta peace was taken by ron artest so they couldn't do that. we are going to see what they are spending and the rest of the

business $10 billion and then more after that they are making a giant bet here i think mark zuckerberg is a good storer of capital i still call google google but clarity, we saw alphabet do this, divide from the underlying business that was helpful and i think this will be helpful for facebook as well >> here we are going to be typing new ticker into our computers for this does it make a difference? >> mark zuckerberg is the founder of this company and calls the shot you could argue whether he has done a good job or not, deal

with the problems the company has had over the last five years, dealing with growing pains for a company this size. but they haven't been particularly innovative. they have ridden a secular shift as far as online ads they were unable to make a phone. a lot of their hardware hasn't gone particularly well oculus was about this. i am not sure in this world, this descent tralized metaverse, i am not sure he will be the lord over it maybe instagram. maybe a lot of their customers, consumers don't want this, this is not their vision of the online world going forward i think there is risk there. >> some of their most popular,

fastest growing apps, which does not include facebook, were acquisitions now you have mark zuckerberg wanting to spend money on the metaverse. >> i wouldn't bet against them i think there will be other leaders and i think the metaverse as we know it today will be different tomorrow it doesn't have to have facebook at the front of the line i think loyalists where advertisers are paying for those folks, i don't think they could care about it. the biggest mega cap tech companies, they all have four letter tickers facebook was standing alone which most people would think was cool with a two-letter ticker i think this is interesting. if you want to analyze these, it

didn't belong with the other group by having a two-letter ticker i do think gamesmanship -- we have seen this in other industries -- google's reasons were different i think facebook is playing defense. there are social issues they are running from and i believe this is a big part of it. >> shares of merck popping one of our traders says this stock could be heading higher. we will bring you the trade. plus green lights for this as taxpayers brace for a tax credit [suitcase closing] [gusts of wind] [gusts of wind] [ding]

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welcome back to "fast money. merck post pd a blowout quarter with cancer drugs. do you like this one >> i do. i am breaking a 101 investing

rule for performance and valuation, merck and pfizer tend to flip-flop back and forth until recently you had pfizer outperforming merck. but usually merck trades at a premium to pfizer. i think we can put the chart up on the screen, but those periods tend not to last long. we saw at the end of 2015, start of 2018 and today. i just think it's an interesting time for merck given this history. you are already seeing the move. i think it probably continues. >> we mentioned the important of keytruda in seven years they lose exclusivity on sales >> and the u.s. in '28 and

international sales. we see this as a reopening trade. there were a lot of delayed visits to the doctor and that relates in more keytruda scripts. i am staying long. i like merck we have details on this trade next you are watching "fast money" live we will be back right after this

welcome back here is a sneak peek at the kramer cam he will haveexclusive interviews at the top of the hour and you can have him delivered right to your inbox. the stock roared nearly 30% as a tax credit survived the build back better plan was the single most active ticker in the market beating out tesla,

apple and ford >> lucid traded more than 11 times the average daily volume one of the busiest in stocks we have seen. most active were weekly call options. most of those were ones that expire tomorrow. and over 30,000 that expire next week buyers of the contract are already profitable because those close close to $4 and they are betting the stock could be up next week, up 8% to see profits on those purchases >> do you think the eb tax credit makes a difference? >> yeah, but it makes no sense and ford, a company that will do $135 billion in revenue and has a roadmap to getting to all evs,

this makes no sense to me. understand it feels a bit like a casino at this menomt. >> ding-ding gla glad we hit it. up next, final trade oh. their award-winning content is tailored to fit your investing goals and interests. and it learns with you, so as you become smarter, so do its recommendations. so it's like my streaming service. wellnow you're binge learning. see how you can become a smarter investor with a personalized education from td ameritrade. visit tdameritrade.com/learn ♪ what if you could have the perspective to see more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line

by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley. so, should all our it move to the cloud? the cloud would give us more flexibility, but we lose control. ♪ ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go? ♪ and we need insights across our data silos, but how? ♪ if i go there will be trouble ♪ ♪ ♪ wait, we can stay and go. hpe greenlake is the platform that brings the cloud to us. ♪ should i stay or should i go now? ♪ ♪ ♪

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set your alarms for 5:00 a.m. eastern time. we have a treasury interview with janet yellen bright and early. let's look at after hours movers apple and amazon down 3% and starbucks down 4%. let's go around the horn on final trade. tim? >> i heard about supply chains easing about three weeks ago i think things are getting better there nike >> karen >> great pricing on used equipment, but don't buy it up 20 there will be a crack where you

will have a chance, united rentals. >> i am looking to buy, 215 to 230 i think is the range. >> dan over the last year and i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. i'm just trying to make you some money. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. before you write off the new facebook, i'm begging you to watch that darn video yourself watch the