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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  October 29, 2021 9:00am-11:00am EDT

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>> now 25, take a look at the ten-year note which has been back above 1.6% or so. >> still got 20 seconds. >> halloween is coming up on sunday you know what also that is penelope's birthday. >> i think it's kiki hoffman's birthday. >> just really fun i like it. i'm not sure what's allowed anymore. i don't want to get canceled "squawk on the street" is next. >> bye-bye good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street". final trading day of okctober it's actually a shade light. amazon and apple will warn of
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supply chain issues. plus going meta. facebook officially chaining its company names bill oils, chevron and exxon with results, profits boosted amid the surge apple is going to be the lead, though, this morning first time since may of 2017. >> my -- first of all, it was an amazing quarter. the numbers are very big over last year. second, you'd like to think that apple is so powerful that they're immune from these supply chain problems but it was the lower-end chips that people weren't just ready to make them. so it leads me to the conclusion that i'm willing to say there's no problem with 2023, but tim
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cook said it could worsen and then he used the word pership was that was the first time did if you wanted to give for christmas, for holidays something apple, it may not be there, so then you may substitute you have to hope those people then come back i am not going to call it a back quarter there's some analysts who don't line -- >> we're going to talk to him later this morning. >> he has every right to say what he wants but i do know he said there's issues of demand. i have to just point-blank i don't see those issues it was one of those conversation s, that i know was, like, i
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wanted to hear that there was a way to get these chips but it's the same problem everybody else hat. >> you thought they were going to, because they had. >> the chip companies just can't keep up. now the ppg, earlier this week here's what happens. listen, we have all 420, except for one that's what's happening. >> kind of like when the car -- to jim's joint -- take a listen.
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>> for this quarter we think the primary cause of supply chain-related shortages will be the chip shortage it will affect -- it is affecting pretty much most of our products current, but from a demand point of view. demand a very robust so part of this is the demand also is very strong, but we believe that by the time we finish the quarter, that the constraints will be larger than the $6 billion we experienced in q4 >> that wasn't good, but revenues are still up -- >> if we if it weren't for supply-chain shortages, i would have the 745 million subs.
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listen, you run through enough ted lassos, you get more subscr subscriptions they have a tremendous opportunity to make a lot of content, but the joke fell flat. i do want to emphasize it was a great quarter listen, i continue to come back to just the size of these businesses i know i'm a broken record on it u. but that google quarter, 65 billion, with $21 billion in profit
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>> obviouslyfor games, maybe, you know, for xbox, but $366 billion in revenue, for apple and the profitability? >> it's incredible the numbers -- $91 bill joran in cash still. >> people will say it's bad. i say own apple, don't trade it. i've never seen demand more people want the product than they can make. both apple and amazon are reflecting the challenges we talk about every day and we saw that with ambiguous zone
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>> of corporate america. it's truck drivers, paying all these workers $18 an hour, they still made a lot of money. by the way, amazon web services reaction sell rated. advertising -- david, i know you're focused on that as an additional revenue stream. >> very significant. the growth we talk about a lot, but advertising, they're very, very high profit margin businesses, unlike the core retail >> i had prologis on this week, and they talked about you have to build warehouse that is go high you can't do the warehouses in the country anymore.
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you have to do basically skyscraper warehouses, and the technology inside costs a fort is not in order to deliver my take on amazon is if i were jassy, which by the way, i'm not, i think he's a giants fans, but we've got to raise the cost of prime there's a story if you're ordering food with whole foods on prime, you'll be hit with a $9.95 fee. >> listen, you know, 98 years old, how do i get out of here? but what i wanted to hear from them and didn't is that somehow they have no problem with the trucks, even everyone else does. no one figured it out except for
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best buy they saw it coming they invested a fortune in supply chain they hated what they did, and it turns out she's the hero this year >> amazon adding $2 billion in costs, citing the costs of steel. the warehouses they were talking about and trucking, citing labor as the primary capacity cons constraint they've added 628,000 employees back -- again to the size of these companies. 628,000 employees in 18 months, and the fact they're not going to find them as quickly as they want is the primary constraint. >> they want to find more people than general marshall did in the
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year before world war ii honestly, you can't -- i have an idea you need a draft. >> a national draft. >> mandatory amazon service? >> yeah, you have to work at amazon. >> that's great for national service. >> it's the only way that jassy will get the people is to have a draft. >> still, we're not going to have to worry, because we'll all be in the metaverse. everything will be perfect there. >> it sounds like you're less eager -- >> apple is much better than amazon amazon is structurally too big to deliver what prime does without costing too much you have to find warehouses where people are you cannot proverbially place the warehouse somewhere in the middle of i-95 you have to do it close.
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the cfo has to raise prices. >> raising wages, too. what's interesting about both of these reports, is this encapsulate so many different pressures we talk about all the time. >> though ammo apple margins were right in line. >> 24er7 very strong. >> look, listen -- >> i'm talking about wages, though, carl again amazon's wages, where are they now $18 an hour, and then we're going to talk about starbucks. they told us they're raising wages. they'll be at $17 an hour. >> the algorithm, can you point out that either microsoft or facebook or alphabet have hiring problems they have too many people. it's still hard to get a facebook jobs.
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>> there's multiple people trying to get facebook jobs. a friends of mine got through -- >> it's called meta now. >> don't make fun of that, because i'm going to go hard on you. >> hard on me? what does that even mean >> it means i'll be tough as nails. >> about what? >> about the meta. >> don't mess with the meta. we talked about it -- >> how about the surfiing seat but don't you want to surf like he did >> mark zuckerberg in the meta and the new universe we're going to all be living in? call me a little concerned we may get to it i'll explain why what he says should not be listened to, because he's old. >> who's old on the platform, maybe not
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the facebook part, but the platform >> so exciting. as david mentioned we're going to talk with starbucks, shares down on the impact of china and of course the labor pressure kevin johnson will join us live. we're going to talk about steel. more "squawk on the street" in a minute ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪♪ we believe everyone deserves to live better.
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that's mark zuckerberg yesterday making the case for the meta really interesting note from jim last night in the invests club about whether you buy this and the platform or the notion that leads to education and family reunions over time. >> i'm glad you mentioned it's a platform here's what's going on what he emphasized was that you can do your storefront, try on clothes, have your suppose to
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see how you look to try on clothes. you can obviously learn. he did not emphasize,by the way, learningi ing from beethovn to learn music i suggest talk to a gamer, ton in grand theft auto, or to be in one of the -- my daughter said, dad, i will be in the games -- this is a chance to capture the 21 to 31, the education i thought was extraordinary to go and learn in a much better way than the classroom i think you raised during the break, i thought when mark zuckerberg was surfing, i would like to surf, but my daughter said, dad, you may by too old, you might not have the stability. i love playing cards, going to a concert and the afterparty
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these are things that i thought were wondrous. i'm not cynical. there were people on twitter when some didn't even wait -- that's getting a token -- >> from an investment standpoint, as we of course found on the earlier, they spent $12 billion or roughly, this year it's only mostly going to go higher when i asked you what it was spent on, it was largely soft engineers, you said. it's a significant expense for this company over the next five years, for a potential payoff later in the decade. hard for a company to have a second act, that you get it right the second time. >> do you think that it was more than -- >> yeah, except right now going the is still search.
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search is the product. search is what delivered almost all of the profits from the quarter they just reported this is a real profit opportunity over time. clearly later again in the decade, where it all goes, jim, eventually it feels like it will be the matrix. >> did you watch the show last night? i said it's the matrix. >> i guess it's going around. >> were you watching -- >> i started watching the knicks they're worth watching. >> the metaverse has a perfect record. >> or i could by seven feet tall. >> my daughter said, dad, i can go to a concert without having to deal with the crowds. the other educational aspect >> metta world peace >> the chip for it, i think ultimately, as i talked to syed
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from the investment club, lonely people, which there are many -- i know on the dollar side represented by man, this may be the answer my daughter has worked in the suicide field. people will commit suicide, a lot of it because they're lonely obviously they're angry or sad, but this is something to plug into my wife is like a snowbird now you go for -- the special early bird special and i want to play rummikube >> to actually be closer to each other so they can get together, now you don't need to. >> there's a lower carbon emissions angle that he didn't talk about. >> he mentioned it in the letter. >> and now, mark zuckerberg is still being challenged by marc
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benioff, who says safety isn't. >> the track record facebook has in terms of safety and other areas does put into question, at least what the metaverse will be like. >> he did say the last few years have been humbling. >> he said a lot of things i was always hope he would say. >> all right okay see you there. >> yeah, as we think of a new acronym for faang. >> when we come back, cramer's mad dash don't go away. mobile app so you can quickly check the markets? yeah, actually i'm taking one last look at my dashboard before we board. excellent. and you have thinkorswim mobile- -so i can finish analyzing the risk on this position. you two are all set. have a great flight. thanks. we'll see ya.
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all right. we talked earlier about steel when it came to amazon, saying the cost of it is contributing to higher costs than they estimated. that gets you to the mad dash. >> there was an amazing analyst on a few years ago, hyman roth remember him >> yes. >> he said their about is was bigger than u.s. steel, and their business was nefarious, referring to the godfather now, we know the old days, you can't see that u.s. steel is obviously an icon of america. >> also a very small company market cap-wise. >> there we go i want to point out that basically the price takers is just had a field day i point this out because of what you said about amazon. i was struck that they actually pointed out steel costs.
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think about, when was the last time that steel costs were an issue? the big issue is that you look at nucor right now people are looking for $22 this year, $10 next year when i speak to the ceos, they think there's no end to the rise of price. >> why >> demand is strong and we kept out the -- you can't dump here anymore. it's a halcyon time for the steel industry. >> all right. >> and it has been -- >> for a long time. >> not since 1963 when president kennedy calls out bethlehem steel for having nine of the top ten paid executives in america we have a lot more for you the opening bell is about four minutes away we'll have starbucks ceo kevin johnson join us. ept re ke ihe
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expected loss, but pretty bullish around bookings. they see profitable for all of next year. sailings at the high of the historical range demand has been surging back. >> he kind of chided me for -- they're doing better, too. i think this is an industry that has recovered to the point where, if you think travel and leisure is going to come back, they have now come down to the point that you might want to take a look at them. i had felt that it's air travel that i liked more, and i like ual, but these companies survived, and they're going to thrive, because it turns out, yes -- >> meanwhile, daily vaccinations in this country, 1.6 million
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yesterday, almost half of that a week ago, and at the highest since may, as boosters and requirements at the city level, state level, citigroup with a linked in post the first bank to make it mandatory. >> peopler saying, listen, you have to go back to work, with the idea that people are getting vaccinated i think that's correct by the way, the edict that if you have contracts with the government, you've got to have everybody vaccinated, that's got a lot of ceos very worried. >> employment screening company hire right celebrating the ceo, and udemy celebrating at the nasdaq one point, if you were going short on some of the big tech names, do you station a cautionary lesson from shopify
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yesterday on that reversal >> i think there are buyers looking for companies everywhere affirm, it doesn't matter what's said, people have decided that affirm, shopify, it's irrelevant what they're saying now. they're obviously -- they have a road map i like -- you know, they're so profitable, it's extraordinary >> it's extraordinary. >> it's really amazing microsoft -- go back to microsoft's quarter. i can't even fathom. >> the numbers are enormous. we talk about that you know, 25%, you go through the numbers, what they mean, in terms of percentage microsoft
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may have eclipsed that >> it did. >> but, again, they're both $2.4 trillion >> people are giving apple a pass, and i thought they would apple is barely down i really want to hear about this demand challenge i am surprised at the people who say i want to get out, i made a big gain, on anything with a chip shortage problem. when tim cook said it could get worse, that to me, i was like -- i was hoping to be at the bottom. >> can you extrapolate it, or is it demand picture -- >> the question is, who wants to make they?
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we really do need -- guys, i want to get to exxon mobil >> 2013. not that many years ago. $250 billion is not nothing -- or $274 billion, excuse me, but the company did report earnings. you can see the stock has had a very strong run. we talked a good amount about it but in the midst of this transformational part of the company, reconsist opportunitied board of directors not unexpected, perhaps. >> i want to spend time on exxon mobil. i know you favor that over exxon. it seems more security they have reduced their debt as
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well, really with a focus, jim, for both of these companies is on their plans to continue to lower their carbon intensity they will announce more aggressive emission reduction plans later this year. >> no exxon, they plan to spend $15 billion over the next five years, and of course the carbon capture projects in development. we are going to get an update as well they have already hit a lot of their goals for 2025 they all were in front of congress yesterday not as many headlines from that as you might have anticipated. they've been in person, maybe there will have been a bit more drama i. >> aoc wanted mike wirth to
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resign, and i said, please don't resign, it could hurt the stock. >> again, they also can use the increased earnings and cash flow right now to increase spending on reducing carbon. >> by the way, how about, david, you've got to get an over the shell situation. so loew, the acti activist, mig be -- that's exxon this morning, and we'll continue to focus on these monumentally important businesses in the world. they obviously have to meet the demand that's out there as well. darren woods talked about it after. i think we have it take a listen.
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>> how do you strike the balance to continues to meet the needs around the world with today's energy system, one that billions rely on, while society evolves into a lower carbon emissions future i think that balance is critical if you're not investing, your supplies are declining we're feeling that now, particularly as demand has picked back up again. >> so that sums it up. >> chevron invested big in 2016, they have -- they're doing about a little more than 3 million a day, but cokazakhstan, 100,000 more, but what i like about chevron, it's got actual growth, a dividend aristocrat record, a very big buyback i think this is the growth stock that people at home should own
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it is a very expensive growth stock. wti is on pace for finally a weekly decline after about eight, nine weeks. this quarter was based on 60 to 70 oil so you can imagine what the next quarter will be like rather amazing well, let's. get to starbucks >> there's some winners and loser today. we have to get to one that i always felt is a long-term winner star becomes is under pressure throng there's a lot of reasons some of it a labor, some of it is supply chain, some of it is the resurgence of covid in china. kevin, good morning. >> good morning. >> there are many things on this
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quarter, if -- by the way, was mentioned on the call, there's a reason to buy the stock right here >> first of all, we had a fantastic quarter in the face of the delta variant. there was a record q4, a -- we group revenue this last fiscal year at 24%, which is faster than the addressable mark. we are taking market share in all things coffee. >> state by state, market by market, we did it in the base of a global supply change dislocation, and did it in the face of inflationary pressures
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i think that's an important point. >> but, kevin, your cfo talks -- spent a lot of time talking about a simple algorithm that you have to go lower, that there will be a pause in fiscal year 2022, and people have to -- you do announce the buyback, but things aren't going to refresh until 2023, so there is a bit of a gulf i will say what you may have done in the past is not going to half in 2022 by your company's own admission. >> think about this, jim our long-term growth is to deliver double-digit eps growth at scale, and we committed to double-digit growth, so don't be confused by that i think what people react to is we maid a significant strategyics investment in our
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partners why? we did that because, throughout the 50-year history of starbucks, with you know when we invest in our partners this in turn rise to the occasion and take care of our customers and create that great experience we expect this is the inflection point, the moment for that investment why? consumer mobility is increasing. as consumer mobility is increasing, we want to make sure we are captures significant market share of customer visits to away from home coffee if we capture that market share, that's permanent, not transitory this is a moment to invest in our partner, to serve our customers, capture that market share. if you look at the numbers, that fundamentally will increase the terminal value of starbucks. we're so confident in the strategy we have announced we're going to return $20 billion to shareholders over the next three years in terms of share repurchases and dividends. we're bullish in the future,
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confident in this investment that paid off for us the investment we're taking today will also pay for us >> i thought the quarter itself was good we have to a piece called crouching margin, hidden earnings -- i know the company offset -- but the guy was -- i found it like this, it's an investment year. there's nothing wrong with calling an investment year you have to do it in order to beat everybody, but you have to own the fact that you are going to do that, and it is not going to give you the same level of growth that you'll get in 2023 don't you have to own that
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>> we do own it, but it accelerates the growth we have some slight margin compression from our typical 18 to 19% -- this year will be 17%, we're offsetting much of those investing with productivity in our stores and pricing actions but there is a slight margin compression. if we gain this share, jim, we get operating leverage this is strategic investment, and it's better to do this now, and we believe it's the right strategic bet for us to take we believe in our partners and we're going to lean in at this point in time. >> a big part of the starbucks experience is talking to the barista, but you did mention
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automated ordering last night. can you give us a sense at what point would their normal be at a kiosk and now with a human we're not embracing the kiosk concept. certainly the automated ordering is on our mobile app if you look at what we have done digitally, we have created digit at customer relationships with nearly 25 million 90-day active rewards members in the u.s., and over 17 million in china those are personalized relationships. i think we also mentioned that we have deep brew, our artificial intelligence engine is doing automated inventory management and store ordering. that's freeing up our partners from administrative tasks so they can spent more time connecting with customers.
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so we're going to continue to be all about the customer connection >> all right so kevin, people say i'm too negative i do want to focus on growth for a moment when i look at the number of scores you have in the cities of china, i come back and say of the 208 cities there's only 563 starbucks in a typical city in china, how many starbucks would there be well, i don't have that specific number the city in the world is shanghai, china. so as we're -- we built over 650 net new stores last fiscal year in community we're going deeper and broader deeper into cities like
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shanghai, beijing, and we're going broader to expand into new cities we're going to continue to accelerate, and we can build starbucks stores in china as fast as we can for the rest of my life. there is that much opportunity, and we're in expansion mode. >> so what are you seeing right now on the ground in china there were some mitigating effects from covid is it getting better there, or is it largely what it was like during the last quarter? >> no, david, you know, look, we accelerated in the month of september, both in the u.s. and china with same-store comparables. what we see in china, if we excluded those stores that were impacted by covid restrictions last quarter, as well as the travel and tourist destination, the core fleet of stores comped
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positive we believe this is a transitory covid-related situation in china, you know, when we partner with the health care, they shut down a city to test and make sure they have covid under control. we close stores in that city for a number of days, and that impacts the comp you take those out, we comp positive, so very optimistic about the trajectory we've got to just keep working through this dynamic environment. >> so, kevin, you offer unbelievable benefits. or partners guide this company it's okay for some people in the buffalo stores to unionize is this something we should be focused on i don't know why you should be
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unionized if you have the best c care, but i was shocked to see. >> jim, for over 50 years now, starbucks has created the success and experience in our stores by partnering that's why call everyone a partner. we are work together, we collaborate. that's how we solve problems, that's how we we evolve. that's how we serve or customers, as partners certainly, you know, we disagree with the decision that the nlrb made yesterday, but we're going to look at the options and continue to do what we have always done. we know success is best when shared certainly we're going to stay focused on creating a great experience for them. we don't think it's in our partners' best interests to put a third party in between the relationship we have always shared that's grounded in our
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mission, the culture that created this great company. >> kevin, the 400,000 people are the people who matter. i believe in the 2023, and i believe in the investment. kevin johnson from starbucks, thank you so much for coming on "squawk on the street. >> thank you speaking of beverages, i did want to update a story involving coke i think kobe bryant was on this desk at one point, if i recall, promoting something he was very closely associated with. this company will be sold and it's a significant prior taos. coke already owns 20% of coca-cola. i. they're going topay about $5.6
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billion for the 70%that they don't own. so overall value of the company roughly $8 billion for bondyarmor will perhaps compete more effectively that does seem to have some traction against pepsi's gatorade, and again, a private company, but nonetheless an important foray for coke. >> the ceo of pepsico has made this area, a lot of the, really great drinks to have while you're trying to have electrolytes that's been the pepsico focus, so i think this is a good defensive move by coca-cola. decent analyst coverage earlier. we did get chicago pmi, a beat,
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estimate was 63.5. prior was 64.7 prices paid, though, 42-year high >> that will make the banks go higher the dow wealth is breaking ground on your biggest project yet. worth is giving the people who build it a solid foundation. wealth is shutti down the office for mike's retirement party. worth is giving the employee who spent half his life with you, the party of a lifetime.
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as we said earlier,final trading day of the month take a look at the first s&p gainers so far teradyne interesting double upgrade yesterday tesla, of course union pacific, as it's all about moving stuff around the duntry and sign up, find out more at
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cnbc.com/investing club or just e e ce yr reen more in just a moment. so, should all our it move to the cloud? the cloud would give us more flexibility, but we lose control. ♪ ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go? ♪ and we need insights across our data silos, but how?
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in business, setbacks change everything. ♪ should i stay or so get comcast? ♪ business internet and add securityedge. it helps keep your network safe by scanning for threats every 10 minutes. and unlike some cybersecurity options, this helps protect every connected device. yours, your employees' and even your customers'. so you can stay ahead. get started with a great offer and ask how you can add comcast business securityedge. plus for a limited time, ask how to get a $500 prepaid card when you upgrade. call today. jim, what's on "mad" tonight? >> i'm proud to be with you
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guys really covered lot we must talk endlessly about saving the planet. i don't think there's anything wrong with having a mission and jim fitterling is trying to change things. >> my daughter said there's an island in the pacific of plastic bottles and by the way, it's how people use it. >> i don't know. >> look, it's philosophical. plant a tree this weekend. >> that's what vent yauk would say. when we come back, watching amazon, apple, both down about 5. don't go away.
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♪ >> good friday morning welcome to another epihour of "squack on the street. live at post nine of the new york stock exchafg good mix today as we watch amazon and apple
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right now, let's get to rick santelli >> yes, everything's been running hot on crisis today. now, let's look at our final read our midmonth read was 71.4 it has improved. 71.7 the problem is, sequentially, lower than 72.8 for saept. it move said from 77.9, downward to 77.7 and on what lies ahead, or future expectations midmonth, 67.2 it improved to 67.9. now, the pricing issues, which were super hot this morning and personal consumption expenditure, year over year. on the one-year inflation, that was a 13-year high although, we look at the five-to 10-year inflation rate, it's moderated for thum recent highs. but the midmonth read moved to 2.9.
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3% is the current high water mark and that basically is a 10-year high we have moderated on the longer view interest rates are moving up rather aggressively. really selling off, pushing their yields closer and closer to zero. they look like they may have the highest yields >> we are 30 minutes into the trading session. we're going to start with oil major chevron posting the highest quarterly profit in eight years, amid surging energy prices western digital, meantime, getting crushed. after data storage device company released weaker than expected guidance. it was hit by supply chain issues we'll end with u.s. steel though topping earnings expectations and announcing a $300 million stock buyback, increasing the
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quarterly dividends to 1 cent. u.s. steel is up almost 60% just for this year. carl >> morgan, apple sales did miss expectations after tim cook said supply chain issues cost them for the quarter. great to center you back and i'm sure our viewers remember you've been net cautious relative to a lot of your peers. how did that work out with the supply issues verses the demand issue? >> well, your answer is both if you look at that supply issue. we thought that the supply chain impacts, based on apple's commentary, would be four t turned out to be six a lot of it was due to southeast production issues. on the other hand, if you adjust
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out the supply chain impacts apple called out last quarter and this quarter, you end up with sekwengsal growth of 7% on revenue. we would expect 20%. you go back in 2018, 2019 in september, when you're launching the iphone in that quarter, you would expect 20% growth. so, the adjusted growth is lower than anticipated that's not a great demand signal either this is a tough end of the year period to forecast that's an understatement i think it's very early to see are the demand is going, given all the supply issues. >> and you write they can easily be walking away from purchases that's a big debate on the street because demand destruction is an economic dynamic for sure others argue that, as far as apple goes, people will buy, just maybe later on. >> right
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you could easily have people delay purchase decisions they go online, say forget it. i'll wait another month or six weeks. at this stage in the game, you don't know it's really early. apple's demand is the tail end of the quarter so does all the retail demand. none of us know how it's go tooling point out. the supply chain issues create a lot of noise around that >> just for the services, which has been a big talking point for a number of years. and that higher margin business. that was compared to 660,000,006 months ago all the supply chain talk, revenue miss, is that overshadowing what we're seeing happen for the people that do their devices and are using them right now? >> let me comment on services. a lot of that services rebound you're seeings to the do, we
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believe, with google tech. google seem as very rapid pick up in advertising. as we've exited covid, that's helped apple as well that's about a third of your services prauf and app store is doing really well still have a lot of people working from home, downloading apps, playing games, etc we think the app store activity will moderate as we exit covid here and people go out to restaurants and things like that i think whatever we're seeing in services is probably a little bit of a head fake in a positive direction. probably see that slow down in the beginning of the year and reopening continues. >> from a stock perspective, it's only up 11% verses the broader gain higher gain from the broader market what would you need to see to consider saying this is a buy? >> well, there's a couple of things
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one thing on the fundamentals. we look at average revenue per user of the billion users. and we think about the trajectory, which is really flat, as we headed to covid. then it's grown by 20% in covid. we expecting it to roll over the other direction, as we head to next year. if we were to see more stability or growth, that would make me change my mind from a fundamentals point of view subscribers aren't growing and arpu isn't, that's not good for growth but it trades on our earnings. that's well above the s&p 500. i don't think it dezvrs that multiple if it doesn't grow any faster than we think it's gor teeing play out in the next -- >> why do you have that view though >> well, apple themselves
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releasedi phone-install base numbers that show you a 5% kager on the iphone install base that's the best estimate of subscribers apple's got. it's an s-shaped adoption curve globally and then arpu was running at about 200 -- call it $275, $273 and our numbers in 2019. it bounced by 22%, or to about $320 we estimate this year. so, that's a big jump that was very stable@that 275, $270 level for two years before covid maybe these devices have gotten more valuable to people and think it will hang higher than the 72 level my guess is it's not going to stay up at these inflated levels
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>> go ahead. >> i was going to say you don't have any subscriber growth and your arpulics like it's probably going to reverse and stabilize at a lower level >> so, given the entire conversation we're having this morning, what's the read through to the apple ecosystem whether it's suppliers, competitors, based on results we've just gotten? >> i think the only read through you can make is the supply chain's a mess i think we already knew that the other read across that you would try to make is, from demand point of view, i think it's too early to make the call. there's indications that demand is weak, as we start the iphone cycle. but it's super early to say anything about that. from a read across point of view, your supply chain people able to produce early in the year, they probably laid in inventory. they'll be weaker than you would expect on the other hand, if you can't
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make things early in the year, you couldn't make things, then you're probably going to see it strong back in the year as you try to supply into these shortages. it depends on the supplier we're talking about. ultimately too early to make that demand call >> so many cross currents on this in particular but congratulations on what's been a good note of caution. good to see you. ron hall of golden from apple to amazon we'll bring in analyst blacklidge to break down that quarter. good morning to you. a lot of cost pressure from wages, from not being able to hire as many people as they want and eve. en from things like steel. >> yeah. um, net, you know, they missed 3q and guided lower for 4q and 3q, missed revenue by 1%,
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missed operating income by 12% to your point, they saw inflationary pressures, given wages and steel as they're doing this historic fulfillment build out. and 4q, they miss top line small but they really did miss their guide for income, 0 to 3 billion. we're 7.5 billion. i felt like investors were probably 5 to 6.5 billion. it was a clear miss and they called out 6 billion in incremental costs. labor was about 2 billion of it. their network inefficiency is 2 billion. and then a billion in fixed cost deleverage that led to the miss and stocks down a bit today >> so, let's break that down a bit. that q4 guidance you're talking
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about anticipates costs. 4 billion in q4, which does take the guidance way down. we hear the ceo talking about it as well with labor supply shortages and increased wages. are they going to recover in the second half of 2022? >> yeah, i think so. some of it will leak into 2022 we brought down our 2022 operate nothingcome by about 6 billion the labor costs will run through the uncomped in the first half of 2022. and then you start to compliment in 3q. the inefficiencies they'll pick up in the median investment. you're not going to have that necessarily recurring. i think positives on the horizon for 2022 we're looking for margin expansion as i'm talking about but then we're also going to see revenue reaccelerate and that's when amazon stock really works
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we'll see the revenue accelerate and i'll say they called out last night that their fulfillment capacity doubled which is crazy and so, i think the same day offering will be better next year and that could help purchase conversion and be another revenue growth driver. and the other thing i would call out, but didn't commit to last night, we're likely towards the end of the historic investment cycle that could help margin next year. >> that fulfillment stat, double doubling since the start of the pandemic got my attention as well the current quarter guidance of break even to a $3 billion profit and i realize they give these wide numbers, wide ranges. but are you on board with that or do you expect this is a company probably going to lose money, giveten has to spend so much in the near term? >> we went to 3 billion.
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i think they'll do something around there it's interesting because some of the bright spots aws, accelerated third quarter in a row ad business not in the cross hairs of apple when you roll that forward into the fourth quarter, if you -- the rest of the business, outside of aws in advertising is losing about $6 billion. i think they'll come in mildly positive but they definitely have head winds, as we're talking about them >> i want to shift gears to another name you cover, which is the company formerly known as facebook, now metta. obviously this is a rebranding and rilter coming at crucial time in the company. they said they're going to plow $10 million into this metta verse vision of the future you on board >> this is a long-term initiative for the company
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they're losing $10 billion in this segment this year and they expect those losses to grow in the coming years remember at earnings, they're essentially going to broke out new reporting, which is the precursor to naming the company. when you look at it, and i think just in discussions with investors since earnings, i guess, it makes the core business look so much more profitable it basically will atsds about $5 to core earnings in 2023 you have investors doing some of the math and trying to justify these losses but clearly direction that zuckerberg wants to go, going. >> yep and we all may be meeting there some point in the future
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>> you say metta i say matrix >> red or blue pill. john, thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you let's give you a look at our roadmap for the rest of the hour, including big oil reporting results. the day after the executives got grilled on the hill. >> bitcoin up 30% since the beginning of the month as crypto continues their rally. and another space spac going public we're going to talk to the ceo of orbital later this hour we have a lot more "squack on the street" ahead. ♪ have a good time 'cause it's all right ♪ ♪ now listen to the beat ♪ ♪ kinda pat your feet ♪ ♪ it's all right ♪
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every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities. there are no easy answers. we're going to need a lot of new solutions and you're going to need companies, like exxon mobile to produce large sums of money as we make the transition. we're focussed on how to do that at the lowest overall cost to society. we're engaged in the policy and making sure that policy makers understand the potential cost of that >> that was exxon mobile ceo, daren woods earlier in an interview on "squawk box." although both shares of exxon and chevron trending lower as the session is gone on a bit here but overall, consoling spending,
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obviously increasing spending on carbon tax, other technologies focussed on reducing the overall carbon intensity of their business in the midst, certainly of a historic transformation, you could say. obviously, there are those that doubt whether the transformation is for real. every time woods talks about it, you see it's a priority for them on the conference call, going into some detail about carbon capture and policies in terms of will we see a price put on carbon, which would pea embraced by much of the industry, because it would allow them to understand exactly how much to spend and what they might be able to receiveads a result. but it's a real effort what are we talking here from 22 to 25, they're going to do over $10 billion, right >> this year >> 15 billion on low-carbon investments. >> which is an interesting --
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you take the numbers and we're talking $10 million to the mettaverse we're seeing heavy, heavy investment and we're seeing it as we have energy prices at multiyear highs and you have the weekly crude inventory data for the u.s. showing we're actually running out of oil in storage in kushing right now. ia get to the level of 20 million barrels, that's where normal operations start to be impacted in cushing, oklahoma, which is the land locked capitol of oil storage in the u.s. we've had this conversation on our air too. the shift in investments, the focus to things like free cash flow for the oil and gas companies. and yes, there's a future and climate change is part of it and carbon capture and shift towards more environmentally-focus sed innovations and technologies but you could make the argument that, based on the amount of
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demand in the world -- and i realize it's been choppy because of the pandemic. not necessarily enough supply to go with the demand and by the way, you're starting to see these reporlts too. hard for them to raise capital to go and put more rigs up >> the case of exxon earnings of $6.8 billion they are able to produce a lot of cash flow, given the price you just saw and therefore, their need for capital is not that significant, given they're generating a good amount of it and returning it to shareholders too >> a lot of that stuff was subsidized by low rates. as we go to break, watch shares of starbucks, despite beating on earnings they saw a particularly negative impact from a resurgence of covid in a key china market. shares down 7%
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we talked about this with kevin johnson in the last hour >> that's why we believe this is a transitory covid variant listen, when we partner with the health care business, they shut down a city to test and make sure they got covid under control. we closed stores in the city for a number of days but you take them out and travel and tourist destinations, we call positive. we've got to keep working through this dine amnic environment. competition beat us again.
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[ eerie music playing ] (crowd cheering) - bito trick or treat!to! ♪ ♪ he is coming for me... but i'm coming for him. happy halloween michael. wellical back. we're looking at the etf spotlight. and one of the top holdings, gilead seeing strong demand for r remdesivir but says other drugs 'rn't reach earlier estimates. wee going to take quick break
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welcome back i'm rahel solomon. president biden and the first lady, met with pope francis at the vatican today. meeting lasted about 45 minutes, according to the vatican and followed by the united nations climate summit in scotland early next week u.s. traffic deaths soaring 18.4% in the first half of 2021. according to a department of transportation report that estimates 20,000 died in motor vehicle crashes from january to june the deadliest on american roads since 2006 and a high tide leading to flooding on roadways
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the delaware river over flowing and spilling on to roads a strong storm is expected to hit the area tonight forecasters say heavy rains could cause the river to overflow again between now and then could be dicey. back to you. >> thank you we're now halfway through the third quarter earnings season and there are two big themes for most companies so far. bob. hello, david so, we're halfway through and a couple of things the most important theme is demand is off the charts that goes against all industries all ceo are saying demand is strong companies are really remarkably learning how to navigate through them i think profit margins are a bit lower but still strong on historic basis one thing i'm concerned about is the earnings growth and guidance is not as strong for the fourth quarter as prior quarters.
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look at the earnings estimates for fourth quarter we're up -- expecting earnings to grow 22.9% in the fourth quarter. that's a little higher than a month ago. remember, analysts were tripping over them selves to keep raising estimates rather dramatically. that's not happening for this quarter and the fourth quarter numbers people care about. for that's an indication it's a little slower expectations demand's still strong though the two major issues are very simple number one, our supply chain worries peeking and number two, how long are corporations going to be able to keep raising pricez bfore they hit a wall and start getting serious resistance it depends what kind of industry you're in. take a look that ceo of colgate, pall mallive we remain focussed on funding
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growth and revenue, growth management initiatives, including additional pricing and they think they've got it. the emphasis for almost all corporations is looking over the horizon, the next one or two quarters look at ce's comments. we view the pandemic-related impacts as temporary so, how long -- the question is how long will the supply chain issues last? there's different durations. the semiconductor shortage, a commodity cost issue, shortage of workers, port congestion. they're separate components and have different durations the idea is most of the -- including the worker shortages, apple was talking about yesterday, are starting to abate already. the most important thing for the stock market always is profit
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margins. think of profit margins as earnings divided by revenue. we've had historic highs for the last few years 12.5% is a target. the second quarter 13.5% we have never seen profit margins that high for the s&p 500. the historic average is 18%, going back to 1993 profit margins have been a lot higher because the earnings are rising a lot faster than revenue. and the reason is corporate america is getting a lot more efficient at managing their inventories and revenues as they've gone up, they have kept the cost down that means more profit goes all the way down to the bottom line from the revenue this is the dreaded word we've used before, operating leverage. the question is will investors be happy if, instead of 13%,
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you're now with a 12 handle on it and certainly those are going to be pretty good numbers, given what's been going on back to you. >> they've got the cash flow to invest in productivity, that's for sure that is a good place to start with our next guest. charles schwab's chief investment strategist joins us happy friday, jeff good to see you. >> good to see you, carl >> we know we're in a pretty good season from a seasonality standpoint but clear the cost pressures and supply chain issues are going to be with us, central banks starting to move, the feds what's the playbook right now? >> profit margins are really high you look at the employment cost index, it was up 3.7% from a year ago that's less than the pace of
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inflation, reflecting declining labor cost on a real basis i think as we see an ease, logjams, which appears to be underway, that's going to ease some of the transitory supply pressures that are push up inflation. and improvement in the macro outlook. we have concerns about tightening but maybe less in china. evergrande contagion concerns led to improvement in october, including china, where stocks are up in a similar amount than elsewhere in the u.s i think we've seen some of the concerns fade a little bit >> we're delighted to hear from multiple auto customers foreshadowing that the trough could be behind us they're beginning to build or add to q1 build schedules, indicating additional use rates. i wonder if you think the market has discounted that yet.
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>> i think when you look at the manufacturers and numbers they've been reporting, they've been beating but stocks have been downen the day. i think there are lingering concerns about the supply chain issues, particularly in discretio discretionaries, like auto shortages often lead to gluts. bow interesting to see what happens with semiconductors and other things currently in shortage in the supply chain >> and brings me to question about something you wrote in your note, is the shift from goods to services. certainly we saw the shift through the pandemic last year, as everybody was locked in and at home buying things. but as the world reopens and we see a shift back to services in a more meaningful way, how does that factor in the conversation and what does it mean going to 2022 >> services have been booming.
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they've been really picking up the slack. and that's key i think you want to look at more service-oriented businesses right now. what's a great-performing sector financials health care is poised to come back services are doing very well i think the market has been focussed on the rebound in demand for physical items. as we transfer to the next stage of demand, i think that's going to be a big area stocks have been reacting very well in the service sector when they've been beating, their stocks have been going up. i think that's a sign they continue through the fourth quarter. >> finally, talking about how corporate america has adapted to the challenges one of the bear arguments is we're at peek growth, peek stimulus and margin. do you think that's fair >> we might be close to peek margin
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they usually peek out early in the cycle but not usually collapse i don't think we're going to see 1970s-like gap for wage growth and like what we've seen in spain and france i don't think we're going to see the type of compression to the margins that we'd seen in the distance past when we'd started to see wages begin to pick up. that means they may be sustained near the levels. >> great stuff good to see you. >> well, as we head to break, look at the biggest laggards for the week most of them earnings related. twitter down 14% and aerospace and defense names, which have sold off pretty dramatically as we're seeing a tightening top line, a tighter
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sales development. garmin is also on that list. s&p is on pace for a weekly gain and the stbe monthly gain since last november. about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity. you have the best pizza in town and the worst wait times. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire
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welcome back to "squack on the street." bitcoin is set to end up 40% the best month since december of last year. keep in mind, we've been hitting record highs whether it's bitcoin or ether. and allen, great to see you and have you back on the show. that's really where i want to start is the fact that we've seen the increase in prices of cryptocurrencies, even as we've seen whether it was robinhood's results or quarter on quarter, based on some metrics within your own results that you
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recently reported as well. i guess, describe? landscape as we're seeing prices increase and trading dip >> it's great to be back with you today and appreciate the opportunity. even though prices are spiking right now, trading volumes are a lot more moderate than they were in fact, it's looking like spot trading volumes on the major exchanges for the month of october will probably still be lower this month than each of the five months earlier this year, january through may. may was a record month having said that, i would like to point out that our -- the silver gate exchange network did handle about $160 billion of
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transfers during the third quarter, which was equivalent to the first quarter and a 300% increase over last year. not withstanding the fact that trading volumes are down, there's so much excitement in the space. and staying here, and back to bank though. i want to get your thoughts in regulation, what it's going to mean for this space. for this industry moving forward. >> yeah. i think we've talked a littleal bit about this, when i've been on the show before you know, silvergate is a state-chartered federally regulated bank and we've been in the space, proactively, on purpose for the last eight years. we opened our first account for a customer in the bitcoin space
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back in january 2014 you're commenting earlier on the price of ether when we joined, it was bitcoin only we've been doing it a long time and with full knowledge of our regulatory agencies. and we, at silvergate, embrace regulation and quite frankly, we think one of the reasons prices are going up is because the space is maturing more regulation is coming in and so we stand ready to help all of our entrepreneurial customers build their businesses and embrace the regulation that's coming >> you are a key partner on dm, which is the company formerly known as facebook, now metta's backed stable coin as well and certainly stable coins in general. i think all dm in particular, given all the heft behind it is a focus in terms of where we're
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going to see regulation come the most swiftly what is the timeline for dm rolling out and how does the framework that's emerging for regulation going to fit into that >> yeah, riit's a fair question and unfortunately, we don't have a timeline i've said in the past i'd be disappointed if we weren't able to launch by the end of this year well, as you know, the end of the year is fast approaching but having said that, we have been working closely with dm and with our regulators. and we're an tis pat pating the work on stable coins from all the work we've done, as i mentioned earlier, we've been in the space so long we stand ready, willing and able to help dm and candidly all of the stable coin issuers who are already customers of silvergate.
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silver gate provides critical infrastructure for the stable coin ecosystem we're excited about the dm project but we currently support all of the regulated u.s. stable coins. so, we will certainly work with regulation as it's tweaked but we're just really excited about the future use cases of stable coins, which is commerce and remittance >> all right allen, we appreciate your time thanks for joining us. >> thanks. coming up on "tech check" a lot more reaction to apple and amazon's earnings. in fact, microsoft has, in fact, surpassed apple as the most valuable publicltred mpy.y ad don't go away.
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zendesk just getting crushed this morning acquire survey monkey and the deal was worth nearly $4 billion
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in stock and now it's not worth that much any more downgrading zendesk including bank of america, jeffries and both stocks getting crushed following the announcement .225 shares. remember that zoom deal that didn't happen because its shares collapsed? well, keep an eye on the shareholder vote on this one, too. they have an analyst meeting on the 18th maybe they'll do a better job explaining why they're doing this deal a few weeks from now we'll see. more "squawk on the street" straight ahead
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." terran orbital in a $1.6 billion combination. joining us is terran orbital mark, congrats on the deal let's start with a what terran orbital does you're in the satellite business and why you're striking this deal now what it will enable. >> it will, first, thank you for having us today. it will enable us to continue to expand and build satellites by the thousands. if you think about it, the
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launch industry is growing by leaps and bounds over 50,000 launched over the next decade, but somebody has to build them we are the largest manufacturer of small sets here in the united states >> yeah. and certainly you have investors and customers like lockheed martin, the u.s. government both on the civil space side and national defense side and security, as well. how quickly are you growing? >> we're growing very fast we just announced $300 million facility in florida where we will be able to build over 1,000 satellites a year. >> so, why are you moving forward with specifically a spac deal right now cooled on the structure somewhat since the beginning of the year and space companies that have gone public this way as a later concern. we have seen some extremely high reductions >> three ways to go public an ipo, direct listing or a spac.
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the spac has the highest likelihood of success at the end of the day and less market risk. so, this took out all the market risk of going public >> are you profitable? >> we are not profitable yet >> and then one of the other things you're looking to do is actually build out your own low earth orbit constellation. we have been hearing a lot about this concept from the likes of spacex and amazon and one web and others what is your business model for that look like and given the fact that it does seem to be competitive landscape, who do you expect to sign on? >> everybody from spacex to amazon to one web they're all doing different things than what we're doing. think of it as earth observation and not only imaging the planet 24/7 but able to image the planet at night, when it's cloudy, raining, and true 24/7 coverage regardless of the weather or time of day that's a big difference the way
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it has been done in the past >> you know, space and defense companies have been a focus this week we've seen a lot of earnings and a lot of companies like northrup grumman and their revenues have been pinched by some of the supply chain issues we've seen affecting the sector now how are you nav digating those? >> we keep buying up things we need in order to manufacturer satellites our goal is within three years to own 100% of our supply chain. >> wow how quickly can you put the factory together in florida? the largest factory to manufacturer satellites on an annual basis, do i have that right? >> the world's largest satellite assembly facility. that should be complete in about 36 months. >> marc, we appreciate you joining us today and shares of tailwind, the spac you are merging with are up 1% on this news >> great, thank you for having
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me all right. well, it's been quite a week for shares of tesla. taking a look at that stock yet again showing gains. 1.35% or so right now. to put it in perspective, quick mr math $140 billion in market value added just this week at least from the open on monday to where we stand right now and when you go back only a few weeks to the 12th of october, morgan, over $300 billion in market value they added a netflix to tesla's valuation just in the last couple of weeks. obviously, the earnings were well received, this week it's been that hertz deal that captured people's imagination and on and on from there >> yeah, and the options activity around this name has been exploding to your point, too. it just hasn't been tesla in the ev space that has been seeing some pretty sizable moves to the upside this week i mean, lucid is another another
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name that has just had a gangbusters run. up almost 60% week to date up another 7% after the company said their first eliveries are set to begin this weekend and also fisker is higher and workhorse which has been beaten down as of late. up something like 10% this week and charge point and some of the other charging stations as we saw hertz said they will build out their own charging infrastructure to go along with the tesla fleet. >> lucid's value was not afford. which by the way had great numbers the other day. stock was up 12% just to put it in some perspective. we have about 30 seconds here, as well, to get to a mover we haven't mentioned this morning which is charter communications. it is down and it is down on concerns about subscriber additions and broadband for the fourth quarter goes back to a number of things that would seem to be, morgan,
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household formation and the lack of it this year. cable companies and/or broadband providers rely on household formation to sell their services that is pressuring those shares. as we've seen during the course of this week, as well. of course after our parent company reported earnings concern about broadband subscriber addition. that will do it for us on "squawk on the street. have a great weekend, everybody. "techcheck" starts right now. good friday morning, everyone i'm deidre bosa and carl is up in ic and john is at cnbc headquarters today apple and amazon stocks drop after rare misses supply constraints catching up to two of the biggest name

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