tv Fast Money CNBC October 29, 2021 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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pound. and to that point, we might get the bank of england starting rate hike. we will see if it comes. definitely a factor driving yields higher. >> the ten-year german yield got to within a .1 of zero >> the most important thing next week is mike's birthday. taking off >> have a good weekend, everyone have a good birthday weekend, mike "fast money" begins now. >> happy birthday. this is "fast money. i'm melissa lee. tonight on fast we are at the halfway mark for q3 earnings season there are a slew of names on deck so in the spirit of halloween we
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are bringing them in a trick-or-treat version of everybody's favorite game. facebook goes meta and later so bad it is good. the health care stock ma might be -- that might be the medicine you need to add to your portfolio. >> up a whopping 30 basis points that's for the spread between 30 and 2 year spread. it's at its two-year lowest level. tim, what does this move tell you? >> spooky. what can i tell you? >> is it ghoulish? maybe something that's ultimately good news back to march, 2020, we were digesting the depth of the pandemic i think we have a better idea
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socially where we are. some normalization some bond yields are great the feds have overstated their welcome. we always talk the velocity of moves. the move for the two-year note, 55 at its peak, pulled back a little bit if that chart was anything else, it would look parabolic. look at canada and we talked about the bank of canada putting the brakes on dramatically and projects to taper. other banks around the world have been an interesting part of our commentary these are things equity markets have not paid attention to look at that surge in the dollar late day could be technical, could also tell you that people are a little bit behind where the fed may come in faster, may have to now. i think it's worth noting on an
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extraordinary week for earnings and markets near an all-time high and vix near all time lows that stairs me happy halloween. >> do you have the same interpretation we will have to play catch-up and see rates rise faster and won't see the accompanying economic growth which may have pushed the entire yield curve higher than just the short end >> exactly it's not just looking at one point. it's a picture, a rorschach test so you go out like a 5 year or 30-year spread, it's the flattest in a while. i believe the spread actually inverted this week so the interpretation is that the fed is going to taper, potentially have to raise rates faster than the market anticipated even a week ago and that's going to slow down the
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economy. that's probably why we saw the other names besides facebook and apple do pretty well they do well, idiosyncratic growth, they don't have to grow. that's the message from the market fed will have to raise rates faster than expected, will slow the economy dramatically and the only way to get growth is -- >> is that the way you see it, pete >> i was listening to b.k., and i look at this, looking at the two year it tells me there is no recession. even with this monstrous move, all you have to do is pull back a little further, five years and take a look what this two years looked like. we haven't gone anywhere i think the reality is, yes, i think the fed fund rate will go
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higher i don't know what pace, but i think we will start to see that move probably faster than anticipated, but i do think we have economic expansion. we have a lot of talk about what is going on with the president and trying to work out deals with infrastructure and all of these other things there is a lot going on behind the scenes but we are in a comfortable spot and i think there are a lot of names that can work in almost any kind of environment. a lot of those names that reported earnings last week are great examples of that >> rising rates still is a green light for big cap technology stocks, pete, in your view >> i don't deal with it as negatively as everybody else part of the reason growth has worked so well, these companies are not just growth companies with no pe these are actual companies with
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great fundamentals on one side and growth on the other side that's why i think it's a completely different story especially if you want to focus on fang, but you can pull back further and there is a more diverse group of technology stocks which has great fundamentals people look at those fundamentals and i think they see there is plenty of upside and it doesn't matter what is happening with the ten-year. >> this is the beauty of an ink-blot test. some may see a one-ideeyed monsr and others may see a beautiful sunset grasso, what do you see? >> i see a one-eyed monster in theforeground and a beautiful sunset in the background let's look back on this. i think the market is just
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pricing in that the fed is late to the dance all central banks have been late to the dance so to tim's point when you see australia and canada rally, it's all a point of reference if you look back to two years ago, three years ago, prepandemic, we are not even there and the market is telling us central banks are late to the party. to b.k.'s point, whatever tightening they are going to do is hypothetically going to slow growth to pete's point infrastructure has not spooked the market to thinking this will be an inflationary environment longer term that, to me, is a reason to buy tech a little more discripple nat to
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technology to value. the trade is to flatten the curve when the fed is tightening that's a rough place to be in value stocks and i own a big chunk of value stocks, so it has me reassessing what i should go into in the next year or so. >> b.k., what is your interpretation of this chart >> big tech should do well because of that idiosyncratic growth they have let's say b.k. is wrong -- i get it wrong every once in a while -- but if i am wrong the economy is section expanding an
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everybody wins >> win-win-win let's bring in the chart master carter, what do you see for this chart? >> charts are ink blots if ever there were an ink blot it's very interpretive, very subjective we are as high as 55 or 56 i think we settled in at 49 on the week but the sequencing would call not for a continuation higher into your rates, but a pullback. let's look at a couple of charts this moved in one month from 20 basis points to essentially 50 and change look at the next chart annotated
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a different way, but it's the setup that preceded that spike it was a tight consolidation a big move from 20 to 50-plus base points. look at the next chart i am pulling the chart backwards, going backwards in time these setups are what sequencing is all about you get a big move and consolidate, big move and consolidate. this one has been particularly big. but what has happened from here, you can sell it. look at the final chart. longer term one could say this is very low compared to where it could be and should be, but the day-to-day, week over week, or simply 30-day move from 20 basis points to 56 on the high this week, the sequence here, the ink blots would call for sideways or down, at least to the end of the
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year >> carter, thank you we will see new about 20 minutes. tim, does this change your view? >> i am glad we clarified that we are talking about blot charts i thought you called me horshack and warthogs, i thought it was a version of welcome back, kotter. reasonability, some of these have to be followed by steps back to the extent you are seeing bond yields around the world in places that aren't necessarily driven by the same fundamentals as here, but will be responsive, like every other yield curve in the world is to the u.s., actually, well beyond where they were at this period of covid australia is back at 19 levels and may be moving higher
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these are things to be worried about. but ultimately we still are getting growth i think we do have inflation i think all of those trades are in very good shape i wouldn't run too far from big cap tech we saw highs and where a couple failed i think amazon of the big five was the most interesting based on the price action. i love energy here, love resources. how about those u.s. steel numbers. how about some of the industrial companies i think will accelerate into normalized even growth and that includes autos as well. >> coming up, we are playing a very spooky version to celebrate halloween. don't be scared. the traders are helping you navigate the tricks or treats of stocks reporting next week plus, facebook giving a
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we have a massive valuation of our company right now we need to grow into that. i think the way to do that is expand the appetite of amc and reach beyond being a pure movie theater play and do things as well in the future as we did movie theaters in the past >> like moving into crypto, doing commemorative tickets. that was part of my interview. how the amc ace cracked wall street you can check that out it's live right now. gearing up for another big week of earnings how should you be trading them a time of a halloween version of our favorite game trade it or
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fade it. we are going to kick off with uber, reporting on thursday. trick-or-treat >> treat like getting a three muskateers bar rather than a snickers or reggie bar they gave you a treat. they have been outperforming lyft i know uber has been maligned. they gave you great insight into july and i think profitability trends are decent. i love the super app component of where they are with not just restaurant but nonfood deliveries uber is a treat for everybody. >> candy is a test, too, because i would have taken snickers over three muskateers any day
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>> i am with you, mel, i will take snickers every day. do you know where the stock is today? below 45 bucks this is a company we have always been waiting for that day, that earnings, and we continue to wait they lost $5 in 2019, lost almost.4 $4 in 2020. i don't know if the improvement will be that much more they also have regulatory head winds. cash versus debt, double on the debt side. i think this is a problem. they have to show usthey can make money consistently. regulatory and everything else i think is a headwind. next stop, viacom also reporting thursday steve? >> a treat
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snickers i concur. if you look back at viacom from march, it more than cut in half, lost 60% of its price based on a fund that had to liquidate that and a number of other topics, or stocks i should say for this one i think this is building a very long base. we know what that means for the stock. it's taken a very long time i agree. i am still long personally i do believe we are going to rally, maybe not to that $100 price target where it started from, but definitively somewhere in the middle. i am looking for a proper balance. >> by the way.
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kit kit kit-kat and twix is superior to snickers >> viacom has my stomach churning just like if i ate all of that candy. it's a trick >> you got it. draftkings reporting earnings on friday pete >> i think this is a big time treat. a company growing revenue at an incredible pace and the acquisition of golden nugget online game will be big. when you look at what the sports betting market looks like going forward from here and the footprint they already have got, i think this is a company prepared for the future. short-term is different, but the balance sheet is great i love their cash position i think this is a company way
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undervalued at this point in time >> grasso? >> i will say this is a trick for me for much of the same reasons that pete talked about uber. everyone is waiting for the next report on draftkings if i look back at the golden nugget acquisition, why do they need growth acquisition at this stage of the game. if you look at their $20 billion offer, i think it's the same type of thing. they should have more organic growth, quality growth on their own. the stock should be outperforming. it's underperforming it's still a trick for me. finally. pfizer delivering results tuesday. brian kelly? >> a trade for me. if yields go longer on the tenure, it has a nice dividend
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yield and trading at pe. that's the type of treat i like. >> tim >> trick it's like getting a candy when you want a mounds bar. >> the lesson out of all of this is that tim has bad taste in candy. >> no, traditional >> no, bad taste >> metaverse surging on the name change and checking into onhoe tel stock ahead of earnings next week you are watching "fast money." wg a little extra. worth is knowing it's never too late to start - or too early. ♪ ♪ wealth helps you retire. worth is knowing why. ♪ ♪
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principal. for all it's worth. in 2016, i was working at the amazon warehouse when my brother passed away. and a couple of years later, my mother passed away. after taking care of them, i knew that i really wanted to become a nurse. amazon helped me with training and tuition. today, i'm a medical assistant and i'm studying to become a registered nurse.
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virtual reality sparking real life profits. these metaverse crypto names getting a boost after facebook rebranded themselves b.k., what is your take on the surge? >> the whole crypto market has been very strong today, but the fact that facebook announced that the metaverse is here, a real thing and one of the largest companies in the world is going to focus on that, got the rest of these tokens going so that's a gaining type of platform as well as mono which is with desccentralland.
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these are two that stuck out with me tonight. >> are you in either of these and what is your way, if you have one, to play the metaverse? >> i am in axie, i think that's oneof the best ones. it has had an extraordinary run. they have an interesting business model they created and probably have all of the philippines playing this game and that's a good thing. so if i had to choose i would say axie >> it's time for final trade on this halloween >> tim >> amazon is a treat wrapped inside a baby ruth wrapper i think people are underappreciating they are in the tail wind of a major secular trend. i am not worried about the bottom line. i am worried about the top line. >> so you don't like baby ruth >> steve
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>> reese's peanut butter cup is the pantheon of where we should be having said that i would say apple. it is up even after the fall today, on a month basis. >>kehe stcrs >> brian kelly >> i like cyberark >> do not go anywhere. "options action" is up next. ♪ ♪ ♪ darling you got to let me know, ♪ ♪ should i stay or should i go? ♪ we have tons of data at the edge, but we have to act on it in real time. ♪ if i go there will be trouble ♪
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