has nothing to do with credit quality. to your point, yes it becomes an opportunity for any investor, really, but probably the individual investor who is willing to own the asset despite the volatility. >> it could undermine the performance, the steadiness they might be looking for. >> right. >> we will be watching to watch what happens next with those bills. that does it for "the exchange," everybody. thank you for tuning in. "power lunch" begins right now kelly, thank you very much welcome, everybody, to "power lunch. i'm tyler mathisen here's what's ahead for a busy monday afternoon the fed has never been this far behind the curve so says a strategist we will talk to this hour. he has a list of inflation-related sectors that could drive the market spac-takular spacs are back, but with a catch. a lot of concessions are being

made get deals done. and a working "power lunch" with a doctor turned ceo the head of medible. what inspired her to use data to improve clinical trials and make them more efficient. >> thank you tyler record intraday highs for all three today, the dow, the s&p and the nasdaq we are off those levels by 100 on the dow and the nasdaq is hanging on to a 36-point gain. shares of harley davidson surging after the eu dropped retaliatory steel and aluminum tariffs. harley could have paid tariffs up to 56% if this dispute was not resolved moderna shares are lower after the fda said they need more time to review the covid vaccine for 12 to 17-year-olds before granding use use moderna saying it to take until

january. shares down about 3%. the market bulls could be influenced this week with more earnings on tap a fed meeting, and the friday jobs report here with key names to put on your radar this week, stephanie link is back stephanie, there are those two big things, the fed middle of the week, the non-farm payrolls end of the week. what are you looking for here? what would surprise you one way or another >> well, it's good to see you, tyler. yeah, the fed meeting, we are all clearly watching and listening for any tone change in terms of taper and i do expect they are going to talk about they are going to taper. is that in this month? is that next month it is probably next month. any change to that would surprise me if they kick the can down the road especially because we are seeing inflationary pressures for sure non-farm payrolls, i always look for the wage number. that's the most important thing.

because the jobs number on friday is backward looking i look at for jobs, initial claims, that's more forward looking. let's look for the wage numbers. i assume they are going to be elevated and going to remain elevated given we have 10 million jobs openings around the country in terms of the jolts. >> we teased at the top of the broadcast an analyst who is quite concerned about the yield curve flattening that long rates are coming down, and that that typically signals ill times for the economy, usually for the markets. are you concerned about where the yield curve is, which is basically the difference between short interest rates and long rates? >> not really because it is so heavily influenced by the fed. that's the whole thing rates should be a lot higher, frankly, and yields should be steeper, given the growth and the inflation we are seeing. i think it is definitely being influenced by the fed. i am trying to focus on

fundamentals this is seasonally a vong time in the market to be putting money to work and riding it out to end of the year and earnings is he far have been really good, supportive of that? we are going to go through link's picks starting with match group. >> yeah. so it's a reopen laggard it's flat for the year, down 14% from its highs yet record levels of engagement and more to go only 25% of global singles are using online dating. let's listen for the impact of google play store fee cuts that could boost margins for match into next year. >> let's also talk nxp, the one i am most anticipating because of the debate of whether they have overshipped for autos or not. >> yeah, well we had a good through from on semiconductor this morning 30% of on semiconductor's revenues come from auto. auto hit a record in terms of revenues for that company.

fast forward to nxp. they do 50% of revenues in auto. 25% of that 50% is growing above the industry average because of content increases and product mix. i expect top line to be strong tonight. but it depends on supply constraints. i think gross profits and operating margins move higher. >> and fort net. >> it scares me a little bit because it is up 126% year to date very high expectations but i think you are going to see strong product wretch and billings growth and momentum to tin. why? because they 40% less to their customers and they have five to ten times the performance advantage. they are gaining momentum on enterprise as well i want to buy it because i like cyber security total addressable market for the long term. >> the fastest two minutes in stocks stephanie link, thanks

appreciate it. the spac is back after a slow don in activity, the market picked up big in october it posted its busiest month since march. most of the deals came with major concessions for investors. alsoly picker has the details. >> yeah, this pickup really seems like it came out of nowhere. there was literally number the number of spacs that debuted in october cared with september 57 total, the biggest monthly number since march right before the market fell off a cliff. in fact, this october was even busier than last october, which is when spacs really started to take off and we started talking about them more and more on cnbc what's behind this recent surge? according to experts in this space a lot of sit a pent up backlog, deals that were set to debut until the market froze over, regulatory and accounting concerns now bankers and sponsors agree it is basically now or never for spacs to list before year end. but the market itself hasn't

rebounded in the way that spac issuance has look at the index of public spacs still looking for deals. it is down about 3% this year, although trading marginally higher today as a result, many of the spacs that are debuting are doing so with major concessions for investors. these include greater fraction of warrant per each unit sold, less time to find a deal, think 15 months instead of the standard 24 months and more money held in trust it is clear that the leverage is definitely much more so in the hands of the investors as opposed to the sponsors looking to debut these things. >> and we have the highest profile one in a while with the trump spac how is that affecting things >> it came at the end of the month. it is drumming more attention to the product as a hole. if you look at stocks traded by just retail investors a lot of

them aren't spaks or stocks taken public through spacs clearly this is a strong investment vehicle for retail investors, hedge players have been in this area. it definitely brings renewed attention to this space. but for investors, there aren't going to be that many companies like that that these spacs are able to play in. so it is definitely one of those things where investors may want to try to extrapolate from this one instance, but they are going to have a hard time doing so in reality. >> leslie picker, thank you. tracking all the spac action for us today. coming up, apple wants to help save your life. it is reportedly working on new safety features for some of its devices. we will have the details on that next plus, is bank of america's recent strength a reason to sell our trading nation team will tell us what they are doing with that stock

and as we head to the break, a look at some of the stocks hitting new highs in today's session, including franklin resources and albemarle and your family first. i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com as i observe investors balance risk and reward,

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manchin just now pumping the brakes on president biden's social spending package. he just spoke to reporters and sounded skeptical of this legislation. he says, as the details of the framework come out, what he sees are shell games and budget gimmicks and that he cannot support this broad social spending package until he understands its impact on the economy, specifically on the debt and on inflation as well. he said that it could potentially be a recipe for an economic crisis. and he called on his colleagues to go ahead and pass the infrastructure bill that is currently waiting for a vote in the house. he said that some on the left, the progressive caucus have said they will not support that infrastructure bill he will he has committed to that broader package. but he said holding that bill hostage will not work and that it was time playing political games and vote on the bill now senator joe manchin is holding support for the broad

social package and telling the house it is time to move forward on infrastructure. >> where does that leave us? who are we likely to hear from next it probably won't be president biden, who has got his hands full over in glasgow right now who is going the try to corral the progressive wing in the house to bring them along? is that nancy pelosi's job, or what >> she has been trying to do it for quite a while tyler. >> yeah. >> she far it hasn't worked. she has taken steps, they are making progress but progressives are skeptical of her promises and the president's promise as well because they had not heard directly from joe marchin and kyrsten sinema now we know why they may have been concerned joe manchin saying he is not ready to support this bill, that he needs time to understand the full of impacts on climate, on the economy, et cetera we know one missing piece could

be score from the national budget office as well. this is locked in the same stalemate between the progressive wing and the rest of the party. nancy pelosi has to make a decision whether they are going to vote on the infrastructure bill separately. >> is it too early to start asking the question, does joe manchin want to be president >> you know, i don't have a good answer to that one, tyler. i think right now he's enjoying the power he does wield. >> the best answer i ever heard on that was that all 100 senators want to be president, and think they should be at any rate we will put him in that category. keep us posted, ylan, thank you. let's get to dom chu for a market flash. >> we are watching shares of western digital, rebounding up 4% at this stage following the selloff on friday in the wake of their weaker than expected

financial guidance like many companies out there, they have been facing covid impacts and supply chain issues over the last several months it has been a laggard throughout 2021 in negative territory for the year down 2% coming of five months of declines watch those digital western shares >> thank you dominic. the "wall street journal" reporting today that apple is planning to roll out a crash detection feature as soon as next year that could automatically dial 911 in the event of an automobile crash the safety feature would be for iphone and apple watches rolfe winkler broke the story and joins us now what is up >> they are planning a feature they call crash detection, which would monitor your vehicle -- your moving in you are vehicle and if you hit a wall pretty the excelero meter could set off a

prompter, are you okay if you don't answer it could dial 911 and bring emergency services to you automatically. >> do many cars already have this function in them? >> when it comes the gm vehicles with onstar they have had something like this built into the vehicle itself since 1996. something that reports upwards of 6,000 collisions per month, i'm told, by them. you have seen it in some smart phones onstar also has an app you can use it in any vehicle. google put it in the pixel smart phone. what is interesting, not a lot of people have a pixel not a lot of people use the onstar app and yeah, there are a lot of gm vehicles on the road but it is a much bigger highway than that. with the iphone, all of a sudden you are talking about bringing this kind of a if heture to a lot more people. >> could this be a glimpse of apple's ambitions in the car

space? >> you know, that's interesting. i think the car space for them has been a challenge, as everyone knows i think they are still working that out they even had a change of leadership over there not too long ago, including somebody coming off of their watch business i think, look, absolutely, they have got designs to be in your car as much as possible. and this could play into that in the long run is this correct me if i'm wrong here -- >> correct me if i'm wrong here, i think a friend of mine, hurt his knee badly, and apple has function where if it detects that you have fallen it either tries to notify you or will call 911. don't they fundamentally already have this functionality built into their watch >> the watch that's fall detection you can turn on if you are under 65. if you are over 65, it's on automatically. it defects if you have fallen.

gives you a prompt, asks if you are okay, if you don't responds it could notify emergency services for you this is an extension of that that's the general idea here, like the fall detection feature. >> one quick quarterfinal question about all of this, is this difficult technology to develop. >> in other words, once they do it can we assume it becomes kmod advertised and everyone will do it or is it meant to be a signaling mechanism or a genuinely useful tool so if they want sales with insurance providers, medicare, medicaid, that kind of thing, these could be important reasons why they could be opening up to the entire demand base >> i think, yes, this is a he confuseture that is already -- other people are able to do it apple often isn't the first. what they like to say is they try to be the best that's what's happening here i think what is interesting are

the number of features they are working on with iphone and with the watch when it comes to this area of health and safety. tim cook was on your air a couple years ago saying this is going to be our ligest legacy, talking with jim cramer. the question is is this a product or an engineering company. they used to do one great thing that would surprise and delight you. now, as i talk to former apple people, they say it is about all the different things we can do maybe one thing isn't going to work, maybe one thing isn't, but we are going throw them all at you. that's changing the dna of the company a little bit, slowly, and we will see how it plays out. >> it is clear even as we have looked at your reporting into the airpods and other things, that could have this blood pressure technology that they are series about that statement made great to have you on rolfe wingler with the "wall street journal." the united nations climate

change conference is kicking off today. many leaders saying this could be the last chance to avert disaster president biden setting strong goals for the u.s. but the realities at home, as we just heard, could make things difficult. plus another week, another wrking lunch, jon fortt joining usith a ceo who used to be a doctor we are back in a moment.

welcome back, everybody. i'm sue herera here's your cnbc news update a judge in illinois says chicago cannot enforce its october 31st deadline for police officers to get their covid vaccinations ruling it has to go to arbitration first. but chicago can suspend officers without pay if they don't report their vaccination status. a 24-year-old california man is facing criminal charges for allegedly assaulting a flight attendant last week on an american airlines jet. the ceo of the carrier called it

one of the worst displays of unruly behavior that airline has ever seen. amazon is lifting its mask requirement for fully vaccinated warehouse workers. according to a notice to workers seen by cnbc, the restriction ends tomorrow, except in places where masks are required by state or local law and here's something to put on your halloween to-do list for next year. competitive underwater pumpkin carving. scuba divers worked 30 beneath the waves off key largo. the biggest challenge? preventing the pumpkins from floating away. put that on your list next year what is the point. >> i don't know what the point is, other than it's a challenge. and it seems like a lot of people took up that challenge. >> it got on tv. >> got on tv that looks like something out of mine craft, that one. >> it does now i have really no excuse for not carving mine. >> well, you have got a year

>> thank you, sue. president biden is calling the warming climate a growing catastrophe but says there is an incredible opportunity to address it he just made those comments in front of world leaders at the u.n. climate conference today. diana olick is in glasgow reporting on day one of the summit with headlines even as we are talking. >> that's right. president biden arrived in glasgow without a deal in congress on his spending framework that includes over half a trillion dollars combatting climate change. he said the united states is not only back at the table but leading by example he hounded his mantra that climate change would promote new jobs and on clean energy. >> we must view it as a call to

action high energy prices only reinforce the urgent need to diversify sources, double down on clean energy development, and adapt promising new clean energy technologies >> while most the leaders today called on each other for more aggressive climate action, britain's prince charles focused on the private sector saying governments need to work with private investors and build confidence so financial risk is reduced. corporate leaders are already arriving ceos of major companies who will be announcing their strategies and more importantly, their investmentsdiana, president bidd the u.s. is back in the paris agreement and apologized >> yeah, in an event after his speech, president biden made impromptu remarks and did in fact apologize for the fact that the u.s. in the last administration pulled out of the paris agreement. he said, quote, we are sort of

behind the 8 ball, interesting after what he said after saying we are back on the world stage. >> thank you for covering this for us is it two weeks long >> two weeks we will be here sfa we will see you a lot. thank you. ahead on "power lunch," is the federal falling behind we will speak to an analyst who says the federal reserve is more behind on inflation anth it has ever been. why, and how to play it, ahead (rhythmic electro rock music) (crowd cheering) - bito, bito, bito, bito!

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90 minutes left in the trading day. we want to get you caught up on the markets. stocks, bonds, commodities, and the fed as a crucial two day meeting kicks off tomorrow let's start with the markets a bullish october, stocks are entering what's usually the best three-month period of the year bob boughner has more. >> it is one reason that traders are optimistic going into the end of the year. it is not just november and december we are actually entering the most profitable three-month period on the entire calendar, november, december, and january are the pros profitable trading three months of the year, up 4.3% this goes all the way back to world war ii my thanks to the stock trader's almanac for this information one other reason they are

optimistic, it ends the worst three-month trading session, august through october, the only three month period that's actually down historically although that didn't work this year actually october turned out to be very good and we were up almost 4% for the three month period february to april also good, march to may you can see why generally the next six months tend to outperform the six months in the middle of the year the margins are remaining very high despite all the issues about supply chain there is a lot of debate about supply chain peaking margins around 12.5 on the s&p 500, yield curve flattening is a issue for traders. nobody is sure whether that means slower growth ahead. right now the market is not worried about it obviously we will hear more about the federate hike and the timetable

over the next days ford came out and said that they have seen an improvement in semiconductor supplies recently. you can see that ford has been on a tear recently that's a seven-year high kelly, that's the most important thing, if you can figure out a timetable for supply chains and when it might end, that's going to be a key to the markets in addition to the earnings and keeping the margins up we will see if we pull the seasonal gains forward this year let's get to the bond market rick santelli is tracking the action there people are worried about the yield curve but at the same time moving up the date of the first expected federate hike >> i don't know. they should certainly move it much closer, maybe five minutes from now worry all thinking about the taper. the markets have been worried about one thing. you are right, kelly, we are worried about and watching yield curves for one reason. they jumped. short maturities jumped. why? not because we are going to taper. they jumped because inflation is

hot and central banks are ignoring it. look at the prices paid component to today's ism at 85.7, it is towards the top and remaining very firm. if he look at an intraday of tens, we get back up to the 1.60 level and then drift back down you are probably saying why are you talking about inflation? we can't even get closer to 2% just because the market isn't moving there, doesn't mean it isn't a contentious issue for the traders. traders like to make money central banks are an obstacle. but they probably didn't tighten fast enough. look at bund yields. they goat closer and closer to zero they haven't been at zeroer higher since may of 2019 and the dollar index all you need to know is 94

eaches the pivot every time we get close, seems to get all fired up. kelly, back to you rick santelli, thank you very much it is going to be a big week for theed if. >> the energy markets are closing with crude and nat gas going in opposite directions pippa stevens is here. >> the oil climb is back on today after wti posted its first negative week in ten crude was down earlier in the session after china released fuel reserves. expectations of a tight market ultimately lifted oil into the green. w perks i at $83.92. brent crude is up 1% at 84.62. nat gas down 4% getting back to the $5.20 level. bank of america previous called for brent to hit $100. today they got more bullish saying it could hit 120 by the middle of next year. they point to long jettives on

supply and demand side opec meets later this week as oil hovers around a such-year high. >> 83 today. 120 tom. we will see. as the markets continue to hit new highs our next guest says it is not necessarily earnings or the economy determining the flow of money right now. it is the yield curve. and the fed is falling behind says the chief investment strategy at wolf research. great to have you back you say this is the farthest behind you have ever seen them >> hi, kelly, thanks for having me on. if you look at where the fed funds rate and the effective rate is and where the economy is based on inflation and gdp, that spread is as wide as it has ever been, even going back to the 1970s. this suggests to us that the fed is way behind the curve in normalizing monetary policy both in reducing qe and furthermore

raising interest rates. >> what do you think -- would you call the margaret a bubble is it the flip side of too low policy is too high stock prices? >> we think every day that goes by where the fed isn't doing something to address this in a bigger way the bigger the bubble will build we are in a bubble it is concentrated in pockets of the market and like in past bubbles the fed will have to get more aggressive with respect to somewhere rates. that will cause it to pop. the question is when that wlb. >> if the fed raises short-term interest rates, which it is expected to do sometime next year that's the consensus, i don't know if it is your view or not would that cause the long end of the curve to rise or merely cause the shorten of the curve to rise and then you end up with an even flatter curve than you have now we expect the latter, the shortened to rise more than the

long end because investors will be pricing in more more federate hikes. right now consensus is for two rate hikes next year we think it will be more on this that it build cause the surf to rise because over the long run inflation expect ragss will be brought down over the long run. >> your basic view is that the fed has been late to move against inflation. you are not of the mind it is a blip on the radar screen let me follow through with that. if the shortened goes up and the long end goes up a little bit but in the so much, you get to a flat or what's called an inverted yield curve, and that usually spells recession, doesn't it, chris? do you see that? >> an inverted yield curve is foreboding of a recession. we still have a decent amount of flattening to go that will be the trend we see over the next 12 months.

flattening, but not inverted. >> so a slowing economy, but not a stalled or declining one >> exactly a slowing one. that's what's consistent with a flattening of the yield curve. should the yield curve invert -- parts of the yield curve is actually inverted, i think that's tactical issues should it invert then we want to get more defensive in terms of positions but we are not there yet. >> stocks you think might be good plays, mostly oil plays, also kansas city southern. negatively correlated, home depot, clorox, off a comment on the stocks >> the groups that we like are correlated with inflation trends, energy names, metals and minings, chemicals, rails tend to do, because crude by rail and

economy is usually running hot in general conversely some of the names that are more early cyclical are defensive names like retail or others we think that you want to think about underweighting here. if you own them, taking some gains over the near term >> all right chris, thanks. it will be an important week with this fed meeting with everything you have just described. thanks so much for being here. >> thank you up next, baird downgrading bank of america to sell. this following notable outperformance, up more than 50% this year. is the run over? or is the call too early with the fed potentially on the verge of raising -- rate hikes excuse me. our trading nation team will make sense of what i just said and discuss the whole thing next stay with me trust me, it is going to be good

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folks, welcome back. time for today's power movers. new true, not truer, but truist,

upgrading shake shack. they believe they will miss on earnings but the slow urban sales recovery will create a buying opportunity for shak. fwrank listen resources will buy lexington for $1.75 billion. the firm looking to expand into private equity as its mutual fund business softenings franklin would add to its current $175 trillion assets under management that's a lot. bernstein upgrades spotify from underperform, the firm highlighting new industry which increases their music streaming market forecasts you can read more in james cramer's investing club newsler about spotify. it is up $7 today. now the seema mody from trading nation seema? >> tyler, thank you. banks are kicking off november with a nice rally, up about 2%

on the day thanks to a rise in yields ahead of the fed meeting this week. a sell rating for one of the biggestible ifs. baird is downgrading bank of america warning of limited upside the stock up 11% in the past month. let's break down this call with our trading nation traders bank of america seems for of to have excess liquidity relative to its peers what do you make this call >> i think it is a mistake to get out of a winning stock on valuation concerns alone in this kind of a winner take all economy, b of a and jpm are ahead of everyone else in terms of execution customer loyalty and brand loyalty. they are leifered to a ep stereoening of the yield curve to me, i think it represents a potential upside move especially

if 2022 picks up pace and grows. for those of you concerned about overvaluation issues, the better streaming would be to get long a one year leap call that way your downside is protected but you get to participate in the upside should the stock continue to go forward as much as i think it will be. >> ari, what do you think? higher rates good for net interest margins. is all the good news already priced into the financials which have done well over the last one or two months. >> we don't think so you know, for starters from a top down view we are bullish on the banks. we expect banks the do well as the market rebroadens. off the bat, we think you are wrong to be betting against stocks in that group we like banking stocks that have broken above their precovid peaks.

that includes bank of america. that's from the leadership idea. if you are bearish, we say sell relative weakness. specifically, citi group making lower highs since 2018 starting to roll over at its 200 day average. for an industry neutral pair trade we like bank of america over citi group. >> got it. far more trading nation, head to our website or follow us on twitter @trading nation. seema mody, thank you. after the break join us over there at our table for a working lunch. john fort sitting down with the ceo of medicinable we are back in a minute.

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we are all thinking more than ever about the importance of good data and trust in medicine the pandemic and the race to develop vaccines pretty much has driven that home how can software help? jon fortt brings us today up and close with the founder, a ceo, and a doctor, and a soccer play. >> all the same person he was doing research at stanford and ran binto the problem that started her that's gone well with 500 employees and announced they raised a $304 million series d round. but she didn't always know she wanted to be a ceo or a doctor >> my dad who is a phd researcher said consider being a doctor to have more flexibility. as a child i actually had a lot of anxiety around disease and was a hype kond yak.

i thought i could never be a doctor because it will be too much -- very stress provoking. anyhow, went to medical school and learning about the true how you care for people and learning about the different illnesses and conditions never had anxiety around it again but i didn't think about being a pre-med and on a whim i applied to medical school. >> she was team captain and the work in dermatology researching a rare disease that focused her on technology. big data to help solve the problems faster and sense in the heart of silicon valley she realized there was a potential business and took the pandemic to show the world how big health tech could be. >> there was a lot of interest but not a lot of uptake and when covid hit suddenly the entire medical infrastructure on the

research side needed a technology to execute clinical trials so within a week we got calls from all over the world saying could we use your telemedicine and use vital signs? everything shoifted from 5% of the industry to north of 60%, 70%. >> it is entrepreneurs like this that remind me how big the transformation is that's happening in data and cloud. industries not getting the full benefit of measurement and artificial intelligence. think about the clinical trial groups not relying on those close to a hospital. >> my understanding is there's a way to speed up sort of fda approval of drugs and maybe related to the clinical trials. >> she said that the process for

getting a drug approved takes about 12 years and that's the enrollment and speed that up by a factor of three she said think about the cost savings involved there $2 billion what it costs and half is enrollment. >> i'm guessing an appeal is would be more people willing to participate in a clinical trial if they didn't have to go and get checked out in person every other week or however long it tacks and expand the number of people willing to play thereby get better data and move it faster. >> that's part of it you have to be close now you don't have to. part of what they do is make the:call trials exposed to a broader audience you can do the measurement and adjustment of what's happening in the trial

if you're a doctor >> how do they make money? is she looking at an ipo soon? >> it is b2b i don't know about the ipo question series d, good size. there's focus on health tech carbon health is a founder of you to me coming public and focus on the areas, cloud enabled not in focus before. >> this is complicated data science and that's by definition complicated to me but so many of these entrepreneurs see problem, find solution that's really the trick of finding and starting a new business. >> and the resilience. think how difficult it is to be a medical doctor and a ceo and a female tech ceo in silicon

valley and an investor said maybe you aren't going to make it and hit a ceiling she got on the treadmill and got the endorphins going and got over the hump. >> very interesting. >> just because you're an athlete doesn't mean you get on a treadmill to solve problems. >> you don't >> no. >> i wasn't a n athlete. >> they don't waste time they do not -- not watching the jets game. >> watching cnbc. >> damn right. >> thank you good as always. why to expect to pay full price for the holiday gifts this season crcol take a look under the miospe get ready for higher costs next.

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we have heard the warnings for this holiday shopping season and something else shoppers won't find deals. dom chu here to explain. >> we have talked a lot about the notion that supply chain disruptions could very well disrupt the holiday shopping season and data shows how much to impact the consumer in a not so positive way. deep holiday pricing discounts may not be widespread because there isn't that much inventory to discount. we have already heard the retailers say that the promotional levels at historic lows and now the national retail

federation calling for record highs in spending with 8.5% to 10% above the 2020 level and putting the dollar range around $843 billion in holiday money spent. a decent part of that is just higher prices or smaller discounts. according to data, this past memorial day and labor day adobe tracked price drops of 2% to 7% across toys, furniture and bedding smaller than 2020 and 2019 with 5% to 11% price drops. this year some shoppers may be tilting from finding that best bargain basement price to maybe just getting that price purchased before inventories possibly run dry and that's the possible game this time around.

>> my mom is done. >> you're kidding. >> i haven't started. >> whoa. >> this is not a discount driven purchase >> i bet you sue herrera is almost done. she is an early bird >> discounts >> lack thereof. thank you. thanks for watching "power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. it certainly does. welcome to "closing bell." i'm wilfred frost at new york stock exchange the major averages picking up where they left off in october small caps jumping as we head into the final hour of trade. >> welcome i'm sara eisen let's look at what's driving the action senator manchin throwing a wrempbl boo the spending plan saying he wants clarity on the economic impact of the reconciliation bill before a vote tesla is off to the races once again. now up more than 50% in the last