i see long growth here. >> big, big pullback jim. >> petroleum given an opportunity. >> josh brown? >> coinbase looks like it wants to break out of its ipo day highs. >> steph >> diamondback energy. great quarter. higher prediction. $4 billion in free cash flow raised dividend third time this year. >> good to see everybody "the exchange" starts right now. thank you, scott, and hi everybody. i'm kelly evans and here's what's ahead on "the exchange. vaccines for kids. the cdc's advisory panel is just hours away from voting to give pfizer's covid shot to kids ages 5 through 11 we will speak to pfizer ceo about that, and about the strong earnings that had thecompany shares up almost 5% today. and inflation has eclipse covid as the number one threat to the economy, according to our latest cnbc survey

digging how that and and inflation may be persistent, maybe not as bad as you think. revealing where we see opportunities. and cars in your home and a home-buying van. looking ahead to lift t-mobile results after the bell today in our earnings exchange. before that another day of record highs dom chu has numbers. >> poetic earnings exchange. like that a lot. tongue tied me up the wazzu hire to kel lykelly's point, record . dow jones industrial get that star surgeon gez s&p and nasdaq each hit record highs in trading. gains led -- you can say that, similar for s&p and nasdaq composite. dow jones industrial taken back that 36,000 mark one of the part of the market

many traders seeing or pointing towards could see a catch-up in small caps ishares russell 2000 hit a record high in trading today saying this, a slightly bit lower on the session so far. we've been trying to see whether or not it could have broken out at some point across this kind of trading range we've seen over the better part of the last 12 months today we almost took a little peek above see if momentum is there two stocks in the stories for a while now. tesla, that topping $1 trillion valuation, hertz with that deal that may not be a deal, because the ink hasn't been dry on the syce on haven't signed anything yet. tesla shares off 3.5%. some recalled for software issues here. hertz global up 6.5% in a company continues to see momentum tied in large part to that deal with tesla they may or may not have for supplies of electronic vehicles. although hertz says they've taken delivery of some of those. and kelly, the rental car side

of things. the stock moved the day. you can make an editorial call here look at the near doubling of shares of avis budget group. there are a number of reasons for this there's a fundamental case, somewhat, for a move higher. whatever degree that could be, because they come out with better than expected earnings and revenues and add $1 billion to stock buyback and technical factors, because this particular stock had about 20% of its shares outstanding short bet against it which does lead to some surges and short squeezes whatnot a big deal. >> the stock up 97% today? >> yeah. today. that's today's move. a doubling in today's -- now, i mean -- kind of crazy. look at overall session so far right? this particular move higher, it's triggered a number, a slew of different trading hauls through the the course of the session. avis budget trade, $336 now.

towards $500 at one point today. kelly, say this. i looked back at the pandemic. remember, the pandemic, travel-related companies like avis, budget, many others took a huge hit. >> hertz went bankrupt. >> a sub-$7 stock back during the pandemic just a year and a half ago. >> and wall street and there isn't today. mention of not a meme driven stock. a phenomenal movei remember seeing in some time and through shade on hertz as well extraordinary. appreciate it, dom chu. shares of pfizer surging about 5% themselves beating earnings and revenue estimates fails to raid full-year guidance on strong demand both for covid and non-covid treatments also awaiting the cdc's decision givingin vaccine to kids meg tirrell has details and with a special guest. hi, meg. >> reporter: hey, kelly.

big beat for pfizer in the quarter. a lot driven by their covid-19 vaccine. beating both third quarter ect tags expectations as well as full year equating to about $37 billion signed in expected revenue for the vaccine in 2021. looking forward to next year, capacity to make 4 billion boses. signed for 1.7 billion and say they can, of course doshs more equating to $29 million in forecast revenue $7 billion more than the street looked for as you said, kids ages 5 to 11 could be just hours away from becoming eligible to get vaccinated here in the united states joining us to discuss that and a lot more is pfizer ceo albert borela thanks for being with us expanding back eligibility to kids down to age 5 really a huge day potentially. what message do you have for parents weighing whether to get this vaccine for their young kids

>> a very personal message i think everybody is waiting for it and a lot of parents in anxiety because they see kids are protected themselves they are protected, the kids, and now hopefully cdc also puts the last stamp to very safe indications, very safe option. >> what does pfizer expect in terms of the uptick here among this age group have you guys done market research to try to understand what demand will be like >> i haven't seen any data on market in particular for this demand, but i think i know that the u.s. government has placed an order with us basically covering every kid of this country. so i think the supply is there and hopefully all the kids will benefit from. >> it of course, questions when

they'll be data for even younger children you based timelines on that today. ages 2 to, up to age 5 by end of the year ages 6 months up to 2 in the first quarter of next year is that a little later than you would expect are the trials going a little more slowly or fda asking for more information is that the pushback a bit >> i don't think going slow perp always expecting to have by end of the year, establish for the 2 to 5 and those are the efficacy starters fda is asking for more safety data already asked and we are ramping up the numbers, but not affect times of efficacy, likely it will be ruled oun in out in tim with additional data to the fda. >> it's kelly. we have small children, megan and i, and personally interested in it. how much more dangerous is the delta variant than the alpha or other variants for small children and how does that play

into the benefit, or risk, of given them a covid vaccine sort of tell me where they are in terms of being in danger in the first xblas i can't mask up a 2-year-old obviously >> of course, you can't. are you asking me, 2 to 5 or 5 to 11. >> more 2 to 5 even the under 2 range. >> yes, yes. yes. you know, kids they are, this is a disease that is exposing people and individuals and kids, if they are in social settings so kids for the moment they start going to the playgrounds and moment start going to -- to -- to kids' facilities, they are exposed. same aswith schools. and we have seen even severe cases in this age. i have spoke ton several pediatricians that they spoke to me about how many they had to -- to -- to, you know, to take care in a hospital setting. so i think there the risk is there. very clear.

i think the vaccine will be very safe what i think we need to see in the doses we are using it, it will also be effect. i'm very optimistic it will be keeping in mind for these kids using two micro-grahams of mrna. compare to 30 micro-grahams of mrna to adults a very, very small dose. we believe this very, very small dose will be very effective, i think it will also be very effective and very effective and this is what we are waiting to see. >> albert, it's meg. clarifying is it three micro-grahams or two for the younger kids >> it is two micrograms and i hope i'm not making a mistake. >> lower than i thought. either way, much smaller than for adults i wanted to ask about your covid anti-viral drug. positive results from merck and not positive results from

another company, tm partnered pi roche although different designs. how are you anticipating what those mean for success of pfizer's drug and are you looking at potentially combining your oral covid pill with merck's, or even with fluvoxamine, the antidepressant with saw ditha with recently >> i see the dait, great data. 50 percent cases reported a significant report and i wish them best of luck in their iterations, everything with the fda, et cetera ours are ongoing and we expect we will have redialed on the efficacy likely before end of year but have first tests going. first similar to what america presented, high risk population. evolved to additional studies. first is in standard, peoplecoio

vaccinated people. to the moment, the only current in this type of operation, and we are expecting the scientific results of that. also we are doing in-house, household conduct, which is, we are giving people that have the disease, giving not only to them, but we are giving also to the people they are living in the household as a prevention for them treatment for the one that has gotten the disease as well as prevention for the others and looking into high interest with similar results. those starters come first quarter i think of next year if studies are positive in high efficacy, we have already approved a billion dollars in late summer and manufacturing. so i hope we are successful because of these options and

ka quantity this year, if we are successful. >> wanted to ask about something you mention and the conference call which was you have a capacity to make 4 billion doses next year 1.7 billion right now of contracts already set up you warned we could be in a similar situation low and middle-income countries are not placing orders soon enough to get in the cue tell us about that dynamic are you worried we'll continue to see a stark inequity of vaccine access leading into next year, and what more can be done about that >> yeah. i'm worried that's why i made the public statement sort of in the last year as i said, multiple times as we gain different prices are those that have high-income countries. one level of price, but the middle income, half the price and the low income countries, of course but only high income countries placed orders in the beginning's then i send letters, in private, to heads of states, because i saw that we will have a

situation where people will say only high-income countries are getting enough they didn't respond positively to that, didn't place orders then after things were settleds and we had great success and manufacturing as well, so everybody asked from us. then all first half of the year doses had already been allocated to higher income countries so now, second time sending along to middle income and low income and by middle of year, a month and a half, say two moss, will have sent more than a billion doses to middle and low income kaunts, bu countries, buo coming to 2022 more governments are more pro active and the high income governments are the proactive governments placing orders and the low income countries, they don't. of course, at this price, as i

syd said, none nor profit in lo income in the middle for middle income but they have accountability first half of 2022 allocated very rapidly. >> all right albert, thank so much for joining us hope we get to see you again soon. >> thank you thank you very much. >> ceo of feiser albert bourla and shares of 5% after earnings today. we'll hear from the cdc this afternoon. jumping to a session high in the past few minutes at the company is rolling out tomorrow. netflix games launch on android initially with ios on the way later. the company promising exclusive games with no ads, additional fees or in-app purchases shares adding ap half percent trading around 684. still ahead, latest results from cnbc's fed survey inflation is the number one threat to the economy. what to expect as the fed meets today and it decides tomorrow.

and tackling transportation. telecom and tech real estate part of our earnings exchange. the action, steer and trade for three key names reporting after the bell tonight. we're back in a moment >> announcer: this is "the exchange" on cnbc. i'll shoot you an estimate as soon as i get back to the office. hey, i can help you do that right now. high thryv! thryv? yep. i'm the all-in-one management software

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welcome back to "the exchange." i'm dominic chu. what's happening with avis budget highlighted extreme upside trading moves earlier this hour. we want to call your attention now to one of the brockers on wall street namely td ameritrade, now implemented trading restrictions on shares of avis budget, certain types of options strategies no longer allowed. still can buy put options and call options long as you are long then, you cannot short or sell or write options against single options against either of these names, rather in avs budget also banned short selling. not allowed at this time amisds other restrictions still highlighting the fact some brokers are reacting to extreme volatility in avis and budget shares td ameritrade is one back to you. >> checked back in saying it must be a huge game. wall street bets meme type thing bolted in the past

probably get higher as the day goes on. dom, thank you very much. covid, meanwhile, no longer the biggest threat to the u.s. economy according to the latest cnbc fed survey it's inflation saying the fed needs to act now. steve liesman is here with full results for us steve? >> yeah. it is inflation, number one response to the cnbc ahead of covid and loose monetary policy biggest threats to the economy and they want the fed to react right now as you said. 60% of the 25 respondents don't want the fed to taper efforts. they think inflation is a big enough threat it ought to halt asset purchases right now. 32%, however, fed ought to respond raising rates now. looking ahead at the inflation forecast, coming along with higher inflation for this year and next forecasters raised their outlook for year over year cpi in the 2021 but for the seventh straight survey now stands at 4.8% up half a point to 3.5% for

2022 you can see there. more inflation well, comes along with less growth 70 basis points shaved off outlook for gdp largely reflecting much weaker than expected third quarter, remember 5% gdp at 2021 this year will give way to about 3.6% next year still above trend, but you can see lower than previously forecast all right. what do they think the fed will do forecast tapering this month out of $15 billion million dollar pace and raise rates beginning in september most would like to see the fed react more forcefully to threat of inflation, kelly right now. >> and interesting, steve. going to say, almost wish we could see nominal gdp. ever a time to nerd out about ngdp, now is the time. such high price precious we want to know, 2% real off 8% ngdp or a 3% this case obviously higher the better even though still not great. >> yeah.

i mean -- what goes around comes around right? you get away from following nominal gdp and maybe we ought to go back to it kelly, smart about this point you're making there is, remember earnings are nominal >> true. >> you think what the level of earnings will be, earnings end up being a nominal number. the pie from when earnings are extracted is the nominal gdp pile start saying inflation plus real gdp meaning double-digit nominal gdp. kelly, let people think about this for aa while and nerd out with us another time. >> a special ngdp flash along with everything else. >> yes. >> thank you very much appreciate it. steve liesman with results today. speaking of inflation and the fed, my next guest says it's time to retire the word "transitory" and start thinking how to bet play the cycle from here for more welcome in barry knapp.

managing partner at ironside's macro economics. welcome. i like your point. saying on one hand inflation is not transitory the other hand, there are strong positive signs for the cycle most people think inflation is here, has to mean sell stocks. you're saying, no. capex is strong and seeing other positive signs right? >> yeah. you went to one of the right people after your ngdp discussion with steve. i was one of the respondents to a survey, by the way, saying they should start, stop the purchases now, but that's exactly right. i think where people get lost in all this is we went from a very disinflationary environment for arguably three decades, and we are going through a reflationary regime ultimately could get to that very inflationary regime, but before we get there we need to work through just this higher level of nominal gdp and what it

means. there are offsets. listen, i'm definitely in the inflation is not transitory camp however, if you think about this decade and i've talked about this before probably with you, when we went from the '50s to '60s we went from very sluggish, uneven growth. capex, weak, throughout '50s financial repression, tight bank regulatory policy. jfk gets elected early '60s with expansive fiscal and monetary, lost interest in world currency inflation picked up. what happened to earnings and revenue growth they accelerated. pe had gone from 7 in 1946 to 20 by 1960 and stayed there because earnings growth went from 8 in '50s to 15 in the '60s threatt through '67. >> yeah. >> ultimately then got out of control. >> exactly. >> this is the big question. are we in this reflationary regime for a time or skipped right to the '70s.

>> waiting for the fed's decision tomorrow, are you, we've been saying the past decade in order to err on the side of caution, the fed needs to keep conditions easy. ngdp growth was very low and every time talking tightening the market would freak out and signal, too early, it's too early. it's too early is this cycle different? do you basically want them, goldman pulled rate hike to next summer do you want to see that response here >> ultimately they'll need that kind of response what i think could happen first, this might be one of the first big themes are trades in 2022 as we have a bit of a fed credibility crisis so depending on what the new fed board looks like, assume claret is gone. in my view probably the drives forefor monetary theory. not powell, clarett. replate him someone viewed more

dovish, markets may side earl 2022 the fed is hand-strung or handcuffed by the process and start to see the dollar weakening, inflation breaking even moving aggressively wider then the fed is forced to react more forcibly. maybe then that means soon as they end asset purchases they immediately go to balance sheet runoff >> right. >> and those rate hikes get accelerated. right now the price reasonably aggressively, priced that way. but the fed could find themselves very much behind the curve. >> let me ask, your recommendations not that that scenario is definitely happening. saying stick with industrials, with software, semis, re0 flation trade. this is where you think people should be putting their mrn right now? money right now? >> no question again, i continue to draw on that an'60s analog. i don't believe the fed will be vindicated in transitory next year i think poorer, ina flation

running faster than thexpect, but i'm still not skipping straight to the '70s phi have to do wood versus dorsey debate, both wrong. >> you're making a lot of friends easily here. thank you so much. appreciate it today. berry knap with iron sooipd macro. coming up, the housing stimulus the rush of refis is providing an infusion of cash to house hordes and investors may be overlooking this under the radar stimulus we'lexorl ple. another there's a. only comcast business' secure network solutions give you the power of sd-wan and advanced security integrated on our activecore platform so you can control your network from anywhere, anytime. it's network management redefined. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities.

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about 0. 4% garins under overshares raising full year forecast. retailer expects this year sales up 25% from last year, under armour up 17.5% today. nearly 50% since january and outperforming both lululemon and nike flip side, disastrous day for chegg, online chutering name worst day ever down by 40% missed sales revenue saying estimate first time in 19 quarters. enrollment didn't bounce back as expected as remote learning ends for more detail on those calls head over to cnbc.com/pro and chegg's ceo on closing bell today. ethiopian government declared a state of emergency as

rival forces from a region gained territory and consider marching on that nation's capital. this morning plans to suspend trade over u.s. concerns. in nigeria, death toll rises to 16 following collapse of a high-rise apartment building dozens still reported missing. the search for survivors continues after torrential rain stopped that search briefly overnight. the market for rental homes is getting tighter rental agency rate fell below 6% in the third quarter that's lowest level in more than a year the vacancy rate is being closely watched as economists look for signs how long that current high inflation will last and in north carolina a school bus crash killed the driver, hospitals four students. multiple tow trucks needed to get that bus back on the road.

state police conducting an investigation. and vote on policing in minneapolis. all of that tonight, 7:00 p.m. eastern time. you're up-to-date, kelly back to you. >> always love election night, sue. thank you very much. coming up, lyft beating revenue expectations in ten out of the past ten quarters can they make it 11? t-mobile down and zillow shares looking to offflow housing inventory. all that and how to be positioned after earnings after the bell next in "the exchange." that's the one with the amazing camera? yep! every business deserves it... like one's that re-opened! hi, we have an appointment. and every new business that just opened! like aromatherapy rugs! i'll take one in blue please! it's not complicated. at&t is giving new and existing customers our best deals on every iphone,

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welcome back to the earnings exchange everybody season in full swing and three key stocks reporting after the bell the action, story and trade on lyft, t-mobile and zillow today. start with lyft. expecting revenues around $860 million, loss of two cents key question, can they handle a persistent driver shortage without raising shares on riders share down 4% today an more than

30% off the 52-week high deirdre bosa joins us now. jobless benefits not seeing increase in driver supply helping with prices as they thought? >> exactly core problem, you said, kelly that supply. drivers supply we know both lyft and uber pouring millions into this problem trying to give drivers more incentive to get back on the platform talk and amazon's quarter. right? starting average pays $18 an hour how do ride-sharing company compete with that and limited benefits remember, drivers are independent contractors. they may continue to have trouble. uber saying they can actually pull back on incentives last quarter but lyft leaning into them how does this all shape up could weigh on revenue per ride. something that lyft flagged last quarter saying sequentially may be down again. the bright side, the company reach readjusted ebitda profitability. we'll see if that is sustainable.

>> true. deirdre, thank you chris is our crader today, chief equity strategy at m.i.a. capital management what would you do with lyft and feel free to apply it 0 others who might be attractive? >> sure. good to be with you. look at fundamentals of learnings and expect is as expectations for uber are low now. stock langered since march the problem, deirdre pointed out, labor drivers just aren't coming back. red herring of unemployment benefits going away it hasn't proved to be the solution to the problem. i'm quite nervous about the squeeze on labor costs what is basically a commodity business and on the sidelines here. what i'd would pay attention for in commentary to the earnings call. >> doesn't seem like earnings could get you back into the stock, unless said the past 24 hours, total change rear >> sure. now, on the plus side, consumer have a lot of money. they don't mind so much the price increases but that has a cap to it.

squeeze from the costs coming up bottom what consumers accept on the top, seems to me like it's going to get tighter and tighter. >> we mentioned lyft down 4.5% along with uber and thank you both. along to t-mobile set to report on a tough stretch for the telecom sector you think ride sharing is bad? telecom worse. t-mobile down 15%, trailing at&t earvin-year low, about subscribers in this phase the 5g rolls out. julia boorstin has the story ironic you have this amazing, great numbers for apple in terms of demand. i don't understand why all of teleco is such a mess right now? >> well, here's the thing, kelly. we have to look at the big numbers that at&t and verizon just reported in terms of subscriber growth. at&t and verizon both beat expectations and posted their best subscribers gains seen in

quite some time. t-mobile traditionally taking share from these companies, from at&t there are concerns t-mobile, steadily growing, better service, having a better network, also very competitive, making a big play in terms of marketing, this could be quarter t-mobile gains come to an end. number we're watching, subscriber additions, total additions expected about 1.23 million. i keep an eye on that number and just remember, kel also two new competitors in the market one is from comcast. cnbc's parent company, now have an xfinity mobile option and also a charter new mobile option from spectrum. new players. they did better than expected. old guy, at&t, verizon, doing better than expected the question, did they, then, steal share, perhaps from t-mobile. >> kpose that to you are you interested, time to buy

when everyone else is selling. would that extend to these companies now, chris >> julia did good reporting. the other side of the coin, saying look, maybe this is evidence that the entire pie is growing. so both at&t and verizon growing number, so with t-mobile also management for t-mobile, getting back to expectations, they've been talking down numbers for a couple of months now at different meetings. i don't see a lot of down side in the stock this is a stock waiting for a catalyst i see kind of as dry kindle, kelly. any piece of good news here with such low expectations could be great for the stock. >> julia, i wonder when talking about comp tis it's more and more obvious the way that your mobile plan might compete with your at-home wi-fi and honestly more people are thinking about potential of something like starlink in a couple years to offer a rival internet type of service is that the problem here that you can now kind of see that future in which there are going to be a lot of options

>> i don't think people are making decisions right now an option existing years in the future i think right now the challenge is that there have been price wars in this state, and maybe it's possible we're going to see all of these companies make gains. it's true t-mobile traditionally the one able to be competitive on pricing and improve its network and take share from the other companies. but i wouldn't underestimate the role that some of these new players could play in this new ecosystem. when you look at a comcast and a charter really wanting to provide an alternative to the big three as we move forward i think it's a question about pricing. i don't really know if 5g is driving people to switch providers to change their plan, but that's another factor to watch going forward. >> absolutely. sure we'll hear more about that later. thank you so much. julia boorstin. finally today, a huge drob for zillow ahead of earnings today. stock now down more than 12.5% on reports the company bought too many homes to flip and now

trying to offload them zillow down 35% this year and down 60% from its 52-week high dom chu is standing by people online, people love to find sale, zillow sales they think are going for penniesing onned dollar to make this point about whether the business model is going to work in the long run? >> we used to talk about it as the idea use zillow as an information source right? go on to see how much i think my house could be worth how much my neighbor's houses are worth. all of these stories about how many homes zillow algorithmic artificial home buying purchased now less than they paid for them is staggering. considering this is the hottest housing market since before the great financial crisis back in '08-09 analysts at keybanc tried to put solid numbers in context around what it could cost zillow. an sliced 650 of the houses zillow has in inventory now and found 429 of them were below

purchase price for an average 4.5% discount for each of those properties a competitive industry right? for theseibuyers, red door, other platform a red hot housing market you wonder why a company doing housing isn't going up in value. >> forward pe, chris, over 100 >> right. >> people get exercised what it's going on at tesla this pe is incredibly high you wonder about earnings trajectory there as they've done a flip-flop on the selling business >> well, dom is exactly right. this is the best housing market for a seller in a generation, and these guys are going to lose a bunch of money selling houses. what's up with that? that's a big management miscue i think there's frankly too many moving parts going into this earnings report. i wouldn't get in front of the and frankly think more shoes to

drop, because they've lost confidence now having said that, it's a great business zillow has mindshare disintermediating folks in the real estate space as others have done in other digital spaces long term i think it's interesting. after the earnings come out take anifying glass and go through them >> magnifiying glass tells you we're not there yet. appreciate you joining us, chris grisanti joining us. and tonight, looking forward to this later on. thank you, as always, dom chu. still ahead, big companies to see big news thanks to emissions announced at cop26, the climate summit we begin with the names and the moves, next.

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welcome back, everybody. president biden announcing tougher regulations on emissions for american oil and gas wells one of the new proposals from the cop 26 climate summit. not the environment it could impact huge implications for markets, too. more to explain how we're already starting to see the impacts felt. >> kelly, officials gathered in glasgow for cop26 saying governments can't do it alone. role of the private secretary capital markets and investors play, it's in sharp focus. annual clean energy investment needs to hit $4 trillion by ind of the decade. hundreds of companies across just about every secretary hear -- sector has to be involved. bank of america says stocks directly related to solutions like next air energy and phase energy and waste connections benefit. tech is critical to a freener fut greener future

electric vehicles and electrification. highlighting a in ing analog ann overlooked, nxp semiconductor's. important to cybersecurity company palo alto networks and power infrastructure quantum services stocking currently under owned by climate and esg focused funds. kelly, clean energy stocks down today. a little bit of a question here about what these policies at cop26 will ultimately mean for the group. >> had such a monster october. maybe buy the rumor sell the fact as well thank you so much. etf down about 4% today. coming up, third and final round of stimulus checks went out in march few americans have gotten an under the radar cash boost those details, next.

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high thryv! thryv? yep. i'm the all-in-one management software built for small business. high thryv! help me with scheduling? sure thing. up top. high thryv! payments? high thryv! promotions? high thryv! email marketing? almost there, hold on. wait for it. high thryv! manage my customer list? can do. will do. high thryv! post on social media? hash-tag high thryv my friend! get a free demo at thryv.com. in business, setbacks change everything. hash-tag so get comcast my business internet and add securityedge. it helps keep your network safe by scanning for threats every 10 minutes. and unlike some cybersecurity options, this helps protect every connected device. yours, your employees' and even your customers'.

so you can stay ahead. get started with a great offer and ask how you can add comcast business securityedge. plus for a limited time, ask how to get a $500 prepaid card when you upgrade. call today. ♪ welcome back to "the exchange" according to analytics firm black knight, they are providing stimulus to the economy as more than 1400

homeowners refinanced over the pandemic they borrowed over 14 billion in the last year-and-a-half they will have it close to 35 billion at the end of the 2022 is the boom about to go bust andy, welcome, this is an interesting codo on the fact that we have spoken with loan depot and mortgage originators because the refi boom is trickling to an end, it has been a massive stimulus for people, hasn't it? >> it absolutely has you mentioned the numbers, 35 billion in aggregate savings realize next year on top of the $350 billion cashed out inequity over the last year as well >> so where do you think all that money is going? can you guys tell? >> i think a lot is being reinjected into the market in terms of goods and services, when the you look at the cashout fund, it goes to debt

consolidation and rent activities. >> we seen a boom in home depot, lowes, all the rest of it. but it is trickling off, isn't it so how much do you expect going forward? maybe high rates will be a catalyst that will think, geeze, i better do it now shares of loan depot, if they thought a lot more was coming, they wouldn't be down double digits this year. >> if you look at it, i guess it depends where you look, if you look compared to where we have been the last few months, refinancing is down from december after the year. if you look prior to 2020, though, we saw 10 million refinanced candidates out there, they saved three-quarters percent in terms of the morning. that would be an all time high, historically speaking, nowhere near we have been over the last few months

>> 14 million during the pandemic, nearly 9 million this area you think we still have 10 million out there? >> there is the potential for 10 million more not all borrowers will act on it his tore scli spe-- historicall speaking it's low >> i don't know how much people will say i'd save doing it >> if they're waiting, i think the long-term projection for 30-year interest rates as the fed sets back qe efforts and raise short-term rates, the long-term practice jectory is for them to go up. folks waiting on the side lines think now is the time to act if they haven't already. >> you say tactical equity is up 9.1 trillion again a lot going to homeowners with high credit scores. the potential is there andy, thank you, as always, for joining us >> thank you

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♪ welcome back democrats are banking on catching wealthy tax chief ways to pay for president biden's lofty agenda robert has the details and where it will be possible. >> reporter: kelly, this is the largest source of revenue in that new tax frame a. line item irs investments to close the tax debt, estimated to raise over there are 400 billion in ten years. the plan calls for congress to invest over $80 billion to crack down on tax evaders. roll tears have fallen by half over the past decade, that's that the irs has lost over

17,000 the new proposal calls for a hiring back thousands of those auditors and improving the agency's technology systems to better detect non-palmetto in the unpass toulouse and private comp companies. the big unknown is whether they can reach that target. estimates are all over the map the latest is 380 billion be billion. it could be 600 billion or 1 trillion it's unclear how much of the gap is from the wealthy, it's a quarter of the total you had tax lawyers saying much of what the irs may consider evasion is actually legal avoidance using all the crazy loopholes in what you and i know is a complex tax code.

so in the end, it may not raise as much as they expect. >> let's go back 20 second ago so the premise of this is they want to catch wealthy tax cheats but by their own estimates from the irs, 75% of the invasion is coming from people who aren't wealthy? >> that's right. and that is a part of the issue. part of the issue is they don't know what that broad pie looks like, even if the wealthy are a quarter of it. so again their estimates is 380 or a trillion and by nature you don't know how much is evaded nul hire all those agents and find out so this is just a giant guess. again, it is the largest revenue source in this new plan. so it's important. >> i think also what i'm trying to say is, it sold as going after the wealthy, in reality, they're a small piece of it, they might be able to get around it, it means they're coming after you? >> right and again we don't know, that quarter estimate is really an

estimate based on a certain slice of audits they did they may raise a lot more of the wealthy. that share of the total pie could be larger. you don't know by nature, you know the biggest dollar numbers will come from auditing the wealthy those are the folks that make the most and avoid the most. >> well said robert, we always appreciate robert frank digging through the pay force of these bills that does it for "the exchange," everybody. stay right there, though, because "power lunch" begins right now. [ music playing a fascinating discussion there at the end of the show kelly, we'll see new just a minute welcome everyone to "power lunch" this is the second day of november, election day the case for small caps, the russell 2,000 in an interday high is it breaking out in a tight range in history our next guest, says, yes. a big call on big oil.