>> i think there was 50% increase -- >> now 80. >> i ndersold it zillow moving in the opposite. >> and the partnership with kroger >> the kroger partnership is the big thing. "fast money" is next thanks for watching. live on the nasdaq market on new york times shares, this is "fast money. we are all over the after hours market action. plus, a stock that more than tripled today. how it caught one of our traders' eyes.

will a big bet pay off we will be joined by robert goldstein for answers. it might be the most important fed meeting of the year any news about a taper the dow industrial closing above 36,000 for the first time ever but look at yields the two-year treasury pulling back in a big way. what is the market saying about what we should expect tomorrow are they ready for the feds to start tightening >> tim >> we have central banks around the world doing what they could and seen yield changes but australia, canada, in some sense we have gotten a sense i think the taper and statement are things we could write on the

show tonight any left accommodation by the fed or as i like to say more fed, more fed influence as relates to tightening leads to volatility i just don't know when it happens. while we believe we have a taper priced in, i am not sure we do there are still adjustments to be made in yield curves. we are seeing markets getting ahead of possibly our central bank and this federal reserve king and various members have said they expect moving rates the next two or three years. that may be moving in. it is coming at a time when inflation is giving central bank zero room to maneuver. they have all wanted inflation above the 2 to 3% rate, they have got it in spades in every corner much the economy. i don't think this is a

nonevent considering it's always where you come from. we come into this moment at all-time highs and maybe a fresh round of peak con play si. -- complacency >> the formal announcement of the taper won't be a huge volatility in the market -- and you know how we feel about consensus views, we tend to go against them, or at least you do >> i think tim ended with vix, and he is right. even the small caps have started to participate nasdaq and s&p making new all-time highs it looks like the russell 2000 wants to break out dollar comes in. rates don't go anywhere. i would say this, crypto, and i will leave that to b.k., but

that doesn't act like we are going to get too hawkish on monetary policy. i just go back -- you and i shared a chart, mel, on text i was looking at december 18, 2013 when the feds announced a taper. they were only buying 80 billion in bonds and we are buying 120 a month. the stock market was at an all-time high and closed higher. the market looks the same. we are up 23%. i think at the time in 2013 the s&p was up 22 or 23% up 27% on the year >> brian kelly >> look at volatility. let's stick with that. both dan and tim mentioned■■ it. in other markets outside of equities we have had volatility in bond markets. but does it come to the equity

market i think the equity market is like you know what, the fed has done a good job of telling us the taper is coming. they still have our back yeah, we have supply chain issues, but economic recovery is delayed. so if we get to tomorrow and the fed picks up at convincing everybody that this supply chain issue is going to be gone and inflation maybe isn't as transi t transitory as they thought but eventually when markets break like this, the ducks come home to bor roost >> if jerome powell convinces the market the supply chain

events are transitory. what is going on at the ports right now. what is your view on whether or not these things are transitory or could impact the pace of the recovery or the pace of the fed's taper slash rate hike. >> i do think the taper has been telegraphed acceptably i think there is inflation yesterday we talked about the new uaw signed a deal. i think we will see more and more labor inflation, whether a union deal or wages going up without a union. i don't see that as transitory some of the butottleneck in supl

chain could be transitory. i feel like inflation is really here how do they think about inflation? what makes them confident of this transitory nature when to me it seems to not be transitory for so many reasons. whether or not they taper, i don't think that matters, they will, but it's more about what they will do about rates and when i don't think they will give us that answer. >> and what the heck is transitory we have breaking news about the covid vaccine. >> melissa, cdc's outside advisers voting whether to recommend the kids' vaccine ages 5 to 11 for pfizer a unanimous vote, 14-0 in favor

of recommending this vaccine it was authorized by the fda friday now it goes up to the cdc to accept it which it was expected. now kids 5 to 11 are eligible for vaccines we expect them to give them starting tomorrow. so these advisers are feeling strongly about kids getting vaccinated not only to protect themselves, but to protect society at large >> that's a good point, getting society at large back to normal. you mentioned that the work from home stocks were getting crushed. maybe that's part of this whole thing. >> the latest, mel, and we were talking about the school from homecoming down nearly 15% zoom is down 50% from its highs last year. peloton is down 50%, so the work

from home, school from home, and even zil low, flip home for home also down 50%. so a lot of those markets come out and get worse, don't get better we talk about valuations a lot and say in a rip roaring bull market, most people don't care when you have growth and an optimistic outlook, but when the margins start to turn and you see deceleration, they do start to care. >> let's go back to the fed on more on what we can expect tomorrow let's bring in steve always good to see you >> i want to start off -- >> go ahead. >> go ahead. i was going to start off by throwing cold water on this hot and breathless federal reserve story. i want tothrow this idea out

i was putting together some of the data i am looking at where the market is priced right now. here are the fed probabilities as of a few minutes ago. the news here is that the market has moved forward by about six months the probability of a june high you move towards july it's higher and for sure by december. but the second one is the second hike that's a big deal. i will talk in a second about what we might get from powell on this but if you think about it, take a step back, the fed announces a step back tomorrow it means over the next several months it will be adding $660 billion to its balance sheet and it will add 50 basis points

which will bring you where back to the first cuts that brought us down below 1% in march of 2020 much you have another seven months of zero and then maybe another 12 months of 50 i guess the bottom line is if you told me we were going to be adding to the balance sheets with the taper going on and the worst-case scenario, you are going to add 50 points, it helps me understand why markets have taken this repricing on the short end of the curve with a margarita and a lounge chair on a beach in acapulco. >> you think reason and the markets are the markets. i think they are two different beings just a month ago that june hike was only a 20% chance. we all know fed funds futures,

of what, can change on a dime. it seems like tomorrow chair powell there is a bomb waiting to happen when you talk about inflation potentially and whether or not this is transitory it's how he categorizes it that doesn't seem -- >> no, no. you also speak reasonable if i might respond. that is for sure you never know when the market is going to internalize something and go crazy when it reads it that is true i just think that the danger here is not what we see. the danger is what we don't know i think karen was alluding to this i am not dealing with seymour who said he is going to see dave matthews rather than my band on december 12, but we will deal with that later.

the danger is what karen was getting at we don't see what the fed has to do over time to bring inflation back down to 2%. it's something worse than what we are looking at. when you look at 2023, the market, at least the futures pricing, is still relatively calm i watched how stocks have reacted and we have this re-reopening i think it was said earlier if these rate hikes come along with better growth with the reopening of the economy, then i think they kind of negate each other so this hot, breathless story which i think will happen tomorrow, is not that big of deal for the market if we are looking at the worst case. >> steve, i have to jump in here let's use dave matthews metaphors, and i will be seeing the band on november 12.

but you talk about the fed, they have tripled -- a number of markets have tripled or are at all-time highs housing prices are up 20% this year a lot of stocks in the s&p have tripled off covid lows you have left yourself where some of these yield curves may be pricing in a world where the fed has to come in unfortunately they will overstep their bounds because they have no choice but to if they look at december, 2016, 2017, 2018, these were moments when the fed had to do this hike thing. it was somewhat benign i am not angry with you. i agree that normalizing interest rates is a good thing for society, because it means

that pfizer and merck and m moderna and these companies that have remarkable work -- i am not sure this is fair to ask you to comment on because you are speaking about the fed -- but isn't that the danger? >> i can't comment on that it. you are right, i don't know how much zero rates and how much continuous qe this market needs to remain at this level. if you ask me if the economy is capable, i say easily. if you ask me if earnings are able to stomach 50 basis points, even 100 basis points of tightening over time, i think that should be relatively easy i don't get involved that's why you guys are the experts at figuring this out does this mean that all of this

psychology of these bubbles is going to go away it looks like the worst scenario is going back to a place we were even when the fed was cutting rates in march of 2020, and that doesn't scare me relatively to the economy and the company's ability to make money. >> good to see you, steve. it's always the context into which we go into an event. the context are record highs across the board there is a reason there is an expression don't fight the fed here we are and the fed is peeling back >> mel, i would say this is not too different than we entered into earnings season much just a few expectations and we have outperformed i think the fed would have to be a bit more hawkish and you would

have to see those expectations move up materially for stocks to get too bothered the level of complacency is large. i don't think we will see a pullback which everyone and their mother thinks we should be doing. shares of lyft are jumping >> they really jumped higher given the success of drivers, they will be able to taper supply investments that are incentive in the current quarter much the company says it expects to be profitable for the full year driver shortage reports has been a concern for investors since the economy reopened they didn't have enough drivers, but the company says driver supply materially improved in

the third quarter, up 45% from last year. they attributed it to some setting benefits and fed benefits that led to rider increase despite last quarter's warnings, also hitting a record high uber reports thursday. his team has spent hundreds of millions on drivers incentive this year. investors will be wondering if they have been successful in bringing them back onto the platform don't miss the lyft founder on squawk box tomorrow. >> what do you make of this huge move in lyft >> obviously, people are going back to work but also, i think what is really interesting is the number of

drivers that have come back up when you put that into the entire situation that we have at the top of the show, you have government benefits coming off savings are at the level we haven't seen since before the pandemic they have to go back to work, which is good. they should be earning money, but the core assumption is that the economy can handle it because the economy is getting better what if this is as good as it gets much people go back to work at lyft and don't earn what they used to earn they use their last dollar on christmas because they haven't celebrated in two years. it seems that fed could be raising rates at the absolute worst time coming up, zillow is shutting down its housing

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bed bath and beyond shares surging after announcement of a partnership with kroger. another one is amc and gamestop is also jumping in the last half hour or so shares more than tripling at its high before closing up just 100% tongue in cheek. avis posting solid earnings, but, karen, you say something else might have happened here. this is a fascinating story. >> yes, i saw it up 100% and i thought earnings must have been good and then it was up 150% i thought it must be a squeeze i had seen numbers between 21 to 30% short which normally says to me it is a squeeze i said i don't have the ka cajo

to do it, but if i wanted to short it, what is the price. they said yes. and that was surprising to me. here is the thing, so it used to be like a week ago maybe where if you wanted your stock to move, an ed manufacturer, that was a good way, but now you don't need to manufacture them you just need to say you are going to rent them then you don't need to rent them say you are going to rent them, whether or not tesla agrees, that is going to move your stock. that's insane to me. because it used to be not that long ago when you would sell to rental cars. everything is different now

apparently i think this is probably a short, but i do not have the fortitude to short it. but good for srs, that's a good home run >> fortitude this is a family show, after all. >> they didn't announce anything they said they don't like to announce a strategy until they execute. so the move higher was on the belief they are doing something right now, tim what do you make of this crazy ride that we saw >> i think between the news around hertz and whether or not it is official with tesla, but, again, the story of where you have short interest and people offside on a trade is another big part

that's the story on bed, bath and beyond there are a number of these broken companies that are finding ways to reinvent themselves that's part of, again, all we talked about in the reddit story and whether some of these companies are or not, the capital markets are allowing them to get there and figure it out later. that's been one of the great stories of 2021 much. >> up 100%, do you attempt to short it >> no, i am not tempted to short it, but that is the story. nobody was shorting the stock, that's why it is every risk manager has been staying away from the wall street stocks and reddit stocks. there are no shorts out there. i remember trading back in '99 and if you announced you had a

website, your stock went up 20%. same thing here. they don't happen near bottom. they happen at the top b.k. is not going to be the first one. as much as i like to be a contrarian, i would also like to rent from avis and have the monies to do it. i am not going to short it coming up, zillow, home slipping business. > >>and we will break down the company's latest efforts in mackaw we will be back right after this ♪♪ ♪♪ move your money to sofi. download the app and get your money right.

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welcome back to "fast money. zillow is down 8%. >> slipping in the business that z zillow once predicted to be a $20 billion, they say it is the inability to predict future real estate >> we have a housing market that froze up and we are seeing a growth rate that we have never seen before in history as you might imagine, that has made predicting the price of a home six months into the future predictable. we are doing it in a scale that is one-tenth what it needs to be we stepped back, assessed,

looked at the volatility in our earnings and we said, hey, we don't need to be doing this. >> just two weeks ago the company said its stock of purchases of homes pointing to supply of labor shortages. zillow said they had to list about 2/3 of the homes at prices less than they paid. they will let go of about 25% of its workforce. we are looking at zillow trading down as much as 52% from its year high. right now you are seeing shares move higher in after hours by as much as 6% >> thank you so much when i heard the ceo on closing bell earlier, he was talking scale is one thing, but

inability to predict if zillow of all parties can't predict prices of home in six months given all of the information they have, that does at an n't give me much confidence to invest in my own home. >> i'm shocked that predicting the future is hard who would have thunk that? there is so much wrong with this statement. number one, they should have consulted with someone who has been in markets knowing that predicting prices are hard number two, trying to do it at the scale they were is outrageous the only thing i can say is borrow another market term is first loss, best loss. get out of it. i don't want to be in zillow if anything, if you are looking to buy a home, i would look at

the homes zillow is selling. >> they have a lot of inventory to get off their hands in a fairly quick manner. they said they were going to halt the homes and that raised eyebrows then. >> i never understood. they have an asset-like business and then this business seemed to work for a while good for them for saying it's not working, shut it down did let's not rationalize. but to see the rest of this business on its own will be very attractive to investors. analysts will probably downgrade, but i think they are a great business and have this free pass now. they can take whatever

write-downs they want, whether for overhead or employees they lay off or inventory if they want to puke it out or sell it slowly, it doesn't matter when you look at this as the rest of the business, i think it's pretty attractive >> how do you look at this, dan? >> it might be a canary in the coal mine. the fact they make this announcement -- if they made the announcement they were selling to private equity down a third from the average cost of whatever the heck it is, that they are going to be discounting these things, that would be better i think a slow trickle on the overheated market could be the thing. the last hay that broke the camel's back to me it is not particularly bullish. >> hay, straw, we get the point,

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welcome back to "fast money. check out las vegas sands. we have an exclusive interview with the ceo contessa >> this is the first time i have interviewed rob face-to-face because he took over during the pandemic, we were always separated by zoom. it is great to be sitting with you today. >> feels good. >> it feels good being in las vegas and seeing this incredible demand we just heard from caesars, they had another record-breaking quarter. >> caesars, hats off to those guys incredible numbers >> do you have remorse about selling your las vegas property? >> no. do i feel bad? yes, because i was involved from day one.

but this puts us in a strong position, more in mackaw, more in singapore the numbers don't surprise me. >> really doubling down. and yet covid is such a challenge for a rebound in mackaw we just got those great numbers in, down a quarter from the previous quarter because of infection. how do you get over it, when do you get over that hurdle >> when i don't know, but i look at las vegas as the rebound story. people told me las vegas won't recover for four, five, six, maybe the end of the decade. i listened and thought i don't believe it here we are and las vegas is 20 or 30% above pre-covid numbers vegas is the blueprint for asia.

once the governments open the doors -- we are opening in singapore, mackaw will follow -- i asia will follow las vegas >> you got a tough question from one of the analysts about the recession and leases coming up for renewal. you were bold in your answer >> we have been there for 20 years. we have invested $15 billion and built 30 million of real estate, restaurants, casinos, hotels 90% of our investment is in nongaming product. for me that boasts well. we have done everything the government wants us to do. we have worked with them for two decades and have a good

relationship but more importantly is our track record we believe adamantly that we will be rely s-licensed and life will go on there >> let's talk about singapore. i know there has been some range that bring in a little more traffic. where do you see a rebound in singapore? >> i think the first half of '22. the government has been extraordinary in working through covid. we are still struggling in q4. but the lanes are reopening. i think they are reopening australia and korea. that is just a door opener the lanes follow and business will come back people want these products the same people that said vegas

won't come back, they are now saying that about asia and they will be wrong again. >> where will you employ it >> our first stop would be -- because the investment opportunity in singapore and mackaw are extraordinary >> you hope to get on the ballot with an initiative in florida. we just saw sports betting ruled out there. texas has been a big lobbies effort new york of those three which is the most important and do you have confidence about any of them >> i think all of them are going to happen. new york is inevitable it has to happen here. i think texas at some point. we hope so we believe in it it is an amazing market. i think we have a chance in florida. i think florida is ripe for an

opportunity. whether we win or not depends what happens we will have the capital we will be investing globally to maximize returns for shareholders >> melissa >> thanks to you and to our guest. tim seymour, where do you stand on sands or any other casino operators? >> i am long and have been long for a month. if you listen to rob, the confident isn't i know it will happen in china, but we have been investing in southeast asia sands is a huge property selling vegas assets i think puts them in a great position. a question i might have asked was are you thinking about buying back some stock and he may or may not be able to answer that question. the company seems confident on

what they can do they are well positioned in asia if you look at the mackaw numbers from last month they were up 32%. we know those markets will open up this stock is way too cheap. do you cut the multiple in half? 10% below covid lows this is a great opportunity. >> best offense is good defense, especially in the virtual world. how nike is blocking out the competition in the digital world. and looking at the qualcomm report tomorrow. "fast money" is back after this. p will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

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welcome back to "fast money. nike is getting in on the craze filing several trademarks for virtual goods. they hope to protect its mark in goods like fortnight we know you can buy bell bottom pants in your metaverse, so if you are nike, why not market

that >> you will have a normal closet and a digital closet and eventually nike will sell you a pair of virtual air jordans that you will wear around the metaverse or maybe wherever you want you are starting to see different technologies converge, and nft and nike saying they are going to do it is at the heart of it much this is the next growth stage for crypto and frankly, for nike because this is a new revenue stream for them digital closet >> i was musing today maybe someday we will see a breakout in nike's earning report, sales from metaverse stores as opposed to bricks and mortars. this will be an evolution we are

experiencing >> you hit the nail on the head. when you have an iconic brand like this where peep arople are willing to pay on secondary market a pair of shoes that with scarce, they will likely be willing to do it in the metaverse. when people think about what they purchased, they are thinking about culture and identity they have stronger connections to the digital world you and i may never understand it, but we might see this offline-online shift of things i prefer to pick my own shoes. i am not sure i will be buying nft from nike any time soon. >> being tired of wearing stuff i was thinking of a digital reel

to reel, where you want to get rid of those bell-bottoms you no longer want to wear on your avatar >> i hadn't even thought through the first part about what you are going to do with the old ones, swap them, trade them? first they need to be profitable in the material world before they enter the metaverse, but you never know if they come out with a metaverse something, maybe that will be viewed favorably rlt i am still in the material wod.

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welcome back to a sneak peek of the cramer cam. catch the full interview at the top of the hour. don't forget you can sign up to get jim's latest on the investing club shares of qualcomm have rebounded from recent lows but are still down 10% in recent months one trader is reporting there

could be more trouble ahead when the chip maker reports earnings tomorrow hey, mike? >> the options market is implying qualcomm could move 5% higher or level. we did see calls outpacing puts 2-1. but i would say the sentiment was mixed. four of five institutional bets were puts. because options premiums are slightly lower than they often are going into earnings, we did see some bullish bets. on balance, the "options action" did get a little bit shorter in qualcomm today >> tim, what is your take on qualcomm >> in the world of supply chain and chip world, the valuation is so cheap

what we have heard from apple and a few other folks doesn't bode well. i think the stock is interesting. i think it's weathered a handful of existential issues. i think it makes sense in this environment. >> top chip pick, dan? >> last week after the earnings call from intel, i thought if you saw this in the mid 40s, i thought it was a good value play the other one is taiwan semiwhich i have played a couple times in the last six months that valuation looks good, too, if we can get by some of these taiwan frsea and bottleneck supply fears

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welcome back to "fast money. check out some of these shares this afternoon activision, and we continue to follow zillow which has its post after hours. are you tempted to get in, karen? >> i am tempted to get in. but i will let zil low shake out a little bit >> around the horn tim? >> i like vegas sands here >> karen >> if the market trades down, i think big cap phrma will do well

>> b.k., brian kelly >> i am going to roll the dice tlt, you can do it ahead, assuming the rates go lower. >> i liked lyft my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. i am trying to make you money. my job is to entertain you and educate and teach you. call me. on the eve of tomorrow's federal reserv