game because you didn't take up all of the time previously earnings, lots of reasons to be excited. >> all right, joe, what have you got? >> c gen, break, out post earnings. >> big average coming up about an hour away from that in the meantime, "the exchange" starts right now. >> hi, everybody i'm kelly evans. an hour until the federal's latest decision on policy. it should be historic. they are widely expected to announce tapering as the pandemic winds down. but the real question is whether they have to move up their time line for hiking interest rates as demand overwhelms supply. first to the markets trading in a tight range ahead of the fed dom chu? >> it seems to be the m.o. of the markets on big fed days. they going into the waiting,

holding type situation we are seeing that today as well the dow has drifted lower than it was earlier this morning, down about one third of %. 116 points to the downside 35, 936 the last trade there 46, 124 for the s&p. and the nasdaq up 14 points. 14,654 the last trade there. the russell 2000, this etf tracks it. we will put a gold star by it. it did had it a record thai high today. as we can see here it is trying to get out this channel that we have seen for some time in that small cap index. if there is a break, it could be good for the better part of the market up 1.2%. better than expected jobs data was out this morning ahead of the big jobs report coming out on friday. consumer names being helped out buy retail supports.

tapestry, gap, ravel lawyeron, under armour, pvh, all up between 4 and 5%, some of the biggest gainers in the s&p 500 then we will end with the all bird's ipo a huge move higher, up $65 this company priced the ipo at 18 a share it is currently 25 and change. all birds, it opened up 21.21. got as high as 26 and change >> we will have more on that in a moment we are also watching big moves in bond yields waiting for the fed's decision a bit of a rebound today after tanking to start the week. it comes after a huge beat on the ism services report. rick santelli with the latest this hour. >> yes, boy, what a u-turn the market has had let's look at that ism

the service sector ism began in july of 1997, that's where this chart starts 66.7, zoom, zoom, zoom, the highest level really before that was the first month, at 62 how did the markets react? look at an intraday of five-year yields at 10:00 eastern, gemini blasted off. yes, straight up on those yields, down on price. while the intermediate and short maturities like feef-year were selling off pushing yields up the 30-year bond has yet to see its yield trade unchange or higher it is now down two basis points at 1.94% this really underscores the dynamic of how the markets are doing one thing and jay powell and company are giving lip service to another thing they are talking about the taper ask. the market wants to talk about actual rate liftoff. if you look at the spread between 30s and fives year to

date you can really see how the market has been having a bit of a hissy fit trying to get the attention of the fed to pay more attention to how inflation and various aspects of policy are affecting markets. kelly, back to you. >> great description, rick thank you very much. rick santelli. well, the fed today is expected to announce tapering, taking the first step in paraing down its $120 billion month low bond purchases it's a historic shift, but is it enough o or is more aggressive tightening of policy needed? joining me now, wheechb whiting of citi global wealth, michael schumacher of wells fargo, and julia coronado of macro policy perspectives michael, i will start with you this is a headline, you think the market is pricing in too manyite rate hikes too quickly why? >> we do it is interesting. one thing i expect jay powell to

talk about this afternoon, the difference between tapering and rate hikes he said this recently, there are different conditions that affect different things we think the market is overreacting we think the market is price for more than two rate hikes next year we think that's too much maybe one, most likely none. jay powell is going to address that this afternoon. >> julia, you concur, give us the fundamental reason, for people who say how could that be, what would you tell them >> the response has been on commodity prices and pull forward from other central banks. but what we are seeing is more of the same supply chain information that we had. we are going to see supply chain conditions improve gradually and steadily in coming months, that's what we are hearing out of earnings reports. if the fed hikes, it is going to be because the labor market is doing better and the recovery is stronger and more sustainable. in that case, i think they will hike later, when that evidence

is more conclusive, and more steadily than the market is pricing. >> steven wieting, even as i look through your thoughts here i am going wait a minute, you think investors might also be too hawkish. is that right? is anything a of doish surprise is what the fed wants to give us >> i don't think you are going to get a bull-bear debate here i think we are not sure what chairman powell's real goal is here today, whether to prepare markets for any real tightening to go any further than they have, or to back them off, or to really allow markets to stay steady interms of their expectations as mike said earlier we are now pricing in five rate hikes by the end of 2003. that's a lot of confidence in the outlook. if you go become to what's going on in the economy and inflation, core services price inflation, services x energy are up 2.5% year to year

that's an acceleration wage, compensation, strengthening. that's not why the inflation is. we had core goods prices up 7.3% over the last year that's fiscal stimulus heading into goods, and goods purchases, and these covid distortions with everyone buying consumer electronics and autos to stay off of public transportation and those are distortions still. and that's the larger part of headline inflation so it's very possible that central banks, particularly the fed, will be tightening into a decelerating inflation environment in the coming couple years. and that's i think a pretty good argument for them not to shock us with, you know, historical normal tightening cycles >> so, michael schumacher, some who argue you know that if bond yields rise from here the fed is de facto easing policy, that they kind of have to play catch up, because otherwise their policy rate is too low relative to what's going on in the market i don't know if we are quite

there yet. the ten-year is still in the neighborhood of 1.5% what do you think is going to happen with rates? if we start heading up towards 2%, is that a signal the fed needs to start raising them. >> we think rates will go up a little bit in terms of long term rates to map out a path this year up through the course of november, down in december the reason for that is the debt ceiling becomes an issue again and all sorts of other messiness in washington. we think the ten-year will be 1.75, 1.80 modestly higher than today mid part of next year, low twos. yields are still low if you want to this about respective economic returns, very negative, which is super unusual. >> right. >> by most measures fed policy is still really loose. >> isn't that the point, michael, for those who say real

yields are at least negative 1%? isn't that way too easy for the strength of the economy we are seeing more in n gdp terms than gdp terms because of the price pressures but why should we have negative 1% rates at this point in the recovery? >> that's a tremendous question. policy is super easy another way to frame it is should the fed have tapered before now probably as it kept the punch bowel at the party too long quite possibly but it is a fine line because the fed doesn't want to spook the equity or high yield market. wants rates to go up a little bit but the government has been borrowing so a big increase isn't good there either. a little bit higher in yield is good a lot higher is bad. >> julia, to sort of switch gear as little bit, fed chair powell himself will be -- you know, everything about the way that he gives this message and speaks

today will be watched because there is also questions about his renomination i thought it was interesting that libby cantrall over at pimco thought the results of the elections last night might mean biden to go with a status quo pick in other words, much of the market has been saying he is going to be under pressure to move in a more progressive direction for the fed. and she is saying maybe in as a result of the last 24 hours they will renominate powell. >> he has done a great job he's not in opposition to the biden agenda in terms of his policy orientation and really, biden has two excellent choices in chair powell or governor brainard. so it really is more a decision about the whole slate of candidates, who slots into which position, and the prospects for getting them appointed and into their seats through the political process. but i think it's quite sensible that president biden would renominate chair powell. i think it's the most likely scenario and that governor

brainard will become one of the vice chairs, probably vice chair of supervision i think today that just, you know, is just another factor arguing for steady as she goes i think another factor that we haven't touched on is a lot of central banks around the globe are starting to pull back on monetary policy. and the fiscal tail winds are starting to ease you want to probably let some of this settle out and figure out how these lags factor into the data and the markets before slamming on the brakes i think that there is a time dimension here that they want to kind of go steady as she goes. they have done that with taper the whole reaction function is go a little later than you are supposed to go that's what they have done is boring -- we are all bored we want to rush to the next thin the fed is going to go steady as she goes i think the nomination question just reinforces that stance. >> sort of finally to translate

this into terms for investors, michael, i know you think you have written -- i should say i know you have written you expect four to seven year treasury yields to rise after the statement tomorrow steven, could you leave us with investors with advice on how to position in the renear term or in the wake of what we are going to hear from the fed on tapering. >> in the near term, markets trade off on these expectations. is the fed ahead of the curve or behind the curve if yield curves dee klein you will see growth stocks improve, relatively come defensives and vice versa with some of the cyclicals and commodities. but that's all short-term. if you think about where we are in the cycle, you just heard it. we are rolling off a tremendous amount of fiscal stimulus that was a major source of inflation. for the coming year i think you are going to see lower returns and some of the rebound cyclical plays the things that have been

really exciting for the last few months, maybe the next few months, these aren't going to be such a great return environment. i think we are going to see that real -- at the core of the economy, that income generating assets, some of the worst performers, staples and health care are going to be steady as she goes, solid investments for the coming year. >> staples and health care this is like the status quo boring outcome here. chair powell, staples, and health care. thank you guys all very much we will see if we can get more fireworks here in 45 minutes time steven whiting, makal schumacher and julia coronado. speaking of news, we have news on square's cash app. >> square is opening up its payments app to teenagers. anyone over the age of 13 will now be able to access the cash app for digital banking or to send money they do need authorization, though, were a parent or a guardian who will be the legal owners of these accounts teens get a debit card they can

link the apple pay and access direct deposit no stock or crypto trading square playing up the cool factor of this launch, especially with the debbette cards. they are letting teens customize the cards linked to the cash app. and square's marketing strategies with this and historically have been more in line with social media companies than with banks. it launched a clothing line for example, last year, and they have partnered with rappers and musicians for cash app giveaways. kelly, this is a way for square to harness that younger generation of users, and that's spending power that's key there, another way to get them into the digital banking fold that generation really tends the relie on cash. it could grow square's platform as well. also a way to differentiate from paypal's venmo, which is reportedly working on a similar product. separately, square shareholders are voting on the $29 billion deal to buy after pay. the company reports earnings

tomorrow. >> given the backlash against social media apps for kids they have a tricky ground to navigate here kate rooney. still ahead, allbird's taking flight today. shares soaring 70% after debuting a of the the high end of their range plus, we are tackling chips, content, and e-commerce in today's edition of earnings exchange, where we will bring you the action, the story, and the trade on three names set to report there is like 160 of them. we are back in a moment. >> announcer: this is "the exchange," on cnbc

welcome back, everybody. strong performance for allbirds today. we can barely keep up. it is up 78% it keeps rising. i check, am i reading the right line yeah, i am its ticker is bird it is currently just under 27 a share. its latest direct to consumer public to go public joining the likes of washi parker and solo brands they have yet to turn a profit and hit snags when they filed for an ipo at the ends of august after focusing on esg measures

joining us is dan primmic. let's start with the price action how would you describe it? >> soaring they priced above where they expected to in the ipo and as you said it keeps going up i checked before i came on and was stun by the number as well. >> ipos have been soggier lately i don't know how i would describe it. we have seen a shakeout in the spac space and maybe it just goes to show that, you know, a really jazzy new, exciting product that people are still really passionate about can do it or is it because it has attractive esg scores? >> i think it is both. the esg plays a role the ceo was on with you guys earlier this morning and he talked about how a lot of the buyers of the ipo were buying in part because of the esg because it lets them put a consumer product in an esg bucket, which they can't always do, particularly a sneaker bran.

a lot of people are looking at b worky parker, it is younger, but a dtc company that recently expanded into its own branded stores and that's becoming a major driver of its growth. >> riffian -- that's the name, dan. while you are here, i don't know if you saw this yesterday a portion of riffian's upcoming ipo is reportedly going to be sold or given directly to users of sofi. interesting move we know robinhood gave a portion of its shares to users but that's maybe a little bit different story. should we expect the opportunity for retailer investors to get in at the ipo price to become more common >> robinhood was more direct because it was robinhood going public and they have its own investing platform you about it makes sense to an extent i have been surprised over the years more consumer brand haven't done

this i thought spotify would do more of this. there is a couple of consumer products that are fairly similar, in theory, if you own stock in one maybe it makes a a little bit stickier for you. >> absolutely. you know, i also wonder why more people haven't done it because we have seen a massive interest between the meme stocks, the retail trading and all the rest of it. it seems unfair again not to allow retail participation this way. usually it goes to institutions and that kind of thing what would it mean for the market if this would be more common with allbirds, this is one of the rare cases where if you bought it at the open you would be higher. most of the time unfortunately, the pop comes before it hits the public market. >> the question for allbirds is where it shakes out after two or three weeks or two or three months when insiders can start

to sell. it is interesting because it is on tv. but in the end, it will be interesting to see whether investors are there after it goes up and down given what happened this the stock market this is year and last year i am surprised we haven't seen more of it so far, particularly via direct lists. >> i would imagine it would be a differentiator for all of these fintech platforms to be able to say, hey, if you use this, we might be able to get you in. i don't know what the interest of the selling company, the riskian or the robinhood or whatever the next up with might be, there is no reason they wouldn't want give a couple percentage points of their offering to the retail space >> look at wealth managers, look how much they use that as a selling point with their millionaire and billionaire clients. there is no reasons things like sofi and mutual fund apps, et

cetera, also can't use that for their lower end clients. >> it will be interesting to see if we go that way. dan thank you for joining us today to talk all things ipo >> thanks kelly. coming up, more than 10,000 workers at deere will remain on strike after rejecting a proposal for the second time in a month is the balance of power shifting to workers in this new economy. we are just over 30 minutes away from the federal reserve's decision on interest rates -- really, a decision on the taper today. we will check in with an economist who says to watch for powell's taper two-step this afternoon. we will explain after this to your financial plan. bill, mary? hey... it's our former broker carl. carl, say hi to nina, our schwab financial consultant. hm... i know how difficult these calls can be. not with schwab. nina made it easier to set up our financial plan. we can check in on it anytime. it changes when our goals change. planning can't be that easy. actually, it can be, carl.

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welcome back, everybody. allbirds might be popping but stocks broadly are sliding the session lows, the dow down 140 points, the s&p down five, nasdaq clinging on to a 12 point gain the fed coming up in 30 minutes. here are some movers this hour zillow, down another 24% today back to $66 a share. it is tumbling, so is avis budget group, yesterday it was up 100 pz%, down 8%. zillow closing its home buying and letting go some of his work force. j.p. morgan dropping it two notches from buy to sell. let's move the meme stocks bed bath and beyond up adding 21% today. it also plans to complete a

buyback plan two years ahead of schedule a lot of talk about how much this one has hurt the shorts, just like with car yesterday gamestop up 2.5% today and amc adding 2.3%. and here's ferrari, also up 2.5% after soft gen upgraded the stock from buy to hold, raised ttle price target by $50 to $290 currently around $255. catching up with the price movement the analyst said sales after accounting for the chip shortage are a positive also called his favorite ev stock. now the sue sue for a cnbc news update. >> here's what's happening at this hour. the pentagon says china is expanding its nuclear arsenal much faster than predicted a new report says china could have 700 nuclear war heads within six years, that is roughly triple what it was

estimated to have just last year. the biden administration is taking action against israeli hacking tool vendor nso group. the commerce department says the company sold spy wear to foreign governments who then used it to target government officials, journalists and others the move restricts nso exports to the united states. on the news, efforts to block the billions of robotexts that americans receive on their phones every single year that is tonight at 7:00:p.m. eastern time the chair of the ways and means committee says the benefit will be means tested and fully paid for. dramatic new video of new lava flows from the volcano in spain's canary islands the new surge is bad enough that residents near the volcano are being told to stay indoors ash is raining down so hard that school classes and flights have

also been canceled you are up to date, kelly. >> wow, that's just been going on and on. sue, thank you very much sue sue. up next in earnings exchange, qualcomm has differed on earnings estimates every quarter for the past four years. will that streak continue tonight? roku dropped 25% in the past three months but usually sees after hours gains usually on their guidance etsy shares up 25% since august but down 10% after its past two earnings releases. the key metrics to watch and how to position ahead of these reports are right after this with directv stream, i can get live tv and on demand together. watch: serena williams... wonder woman.... serena... wonder woman... serena... wonder woman...

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welcome back, everybody. it's time for earnings exchange, where we give you the action, the story, and the trade on three stocks reporting after the bell today it's going to be busy afternoon. first up is qualcomm, the second worst performer this year, down 10%. analysts should comment about the chip shortage and competition as apple works the bring more chip manufacturing in

house. welcome to both of our panelists. josh, let's start with a preview in what's been a strong year for semis. they are not participating. >> as you pointed out, it hasn't been easy for qualcomm bulls the stock is down about 10% this year it is about 20% off its january high i want to point out questions investors have they want to know more about the outlook for smart phone shipments in the quarters ahead. how does it play out those broader capacity constraints we talk about so much and also supply challenges for some key qualcomm customers like apple those are near-term challenges i caught up with mat ramsey who says there are longer term questions you have to ask as well you have to have reports that apple is thinking about making its own modem and bring it in-house investors have to think about what that would mean long term for qualcomm's business. >> let's extend this to the trade. what do you do with qualcomm

is there a ditch chip name we have talked about a few in the past, that you think should be the trade here? >> qualcomm is an interesting holding if you bought it around 80, $60 a share. at this level with some of the concerns that josh mentioned and we have as well, i think you have to watch what happens, obviously, at the earnings call and see how the stock reacts historically it has popped on the earnings for the most part we are concerned not just about the supply chain issues but also the concentration in cell phone makers that they will bring the chip making business internally. and apple's 15% of qualcomm's revenues f. the stock sells off and you want to own it and you think you want to have a position in it, this might be a good entry point we noted in our slower growing higher income strategy another name we are looking at that's a competitor is qorvo.

i think that might be a better place to be in the next three to five years than qualcomm will be because of the risks the 5g modem risk is also a concern also i think the company has a concentration risk problem that's going to be hard to solve. >> interesting josh, what would you add there i mean it is odd that on the one hand apple trades at such a high valuation. on the other hand qualcomm is not benefitting from that. >> apple is interesting. i was talking with matt ramsey about it i asked matt, by his math if you think call come could do $10 in earnings in 2022 apple is about three dollars of that having said, that i should point out mat ramsey tells his clients this is a buy. it is an outperform. it is best in breed in its industry in terms of wireless technology and listed as the leading supplier of communication chips. matt says he thinks they are in the right place to capitalize as

we transition from 4g to 5g to 6g >> valuation only at 14. undervalued in its space and the rest of the market. let's turn to roku the perennial stay-at-home trade. shares underperformed this year. down 7%. and they have a thing with google over hosting on the youtube platform that won't go away can roku maintain dominance? maybe these fights in some ways recognize how important it has become >> look, i think there are so many underlying issues that are separate from these fights that are really about the shift of people from traditional linear tv into streaming and also of advertisers onto roku's platform and roku's role as a company they can target as on to connected tv looking big picture at expectations, theskp expected

to grow revenue by 51% earnings per share are expected to drop 33% from a year ago quarter. one of the key numbers that analysts and investors are always focused on are user numbers. how many people are accessing their roku the active account numbers 56.7 million. that's the key number to watch one thing that roku is exposed to, is supply chain. the question that i will be most focused on is maybe how much this company is impacted from those supply chain issues not just for its devices but also advertising. we have heard rumblings from different companies that they have seen advertisers pull back because of some of those issues. the question is how roku is balancing both of those pieces of its company. >> absolutely, down 1.5% today still at a high poured p/e nancy what would you do with this name. >> we own it we have owned it for a long time i think the weakness is perhaps an opportunity while i agree with what julia said, advertising is the key to

this particular name they do have the best algorithm in terms of targeting ads. they are expanding globally. they just signed a deal in brazil with tcl. that's important because last year 100% of their revenue came from the united states so supply chain disruptions, weaker -- potentially weaker advertising in thor in term may be the case but it might be reflected in the significant underperformance of the stock. so it's had a really good record of surprising to the upside on a quarterly base asks the stock responded accordingly. if it gets weaker, we are going to buy more because we want to be in this name the next three to five years. they are a disruptorand secula nature is an important one. final lesion let's talk etsy it has been having a stellar year, climbing 32% this is the first year after its acquisition of depop back in

june it has a history of revenue beats. can it keep the positive momentum going, especially as we get into the holidays. let's ask kristina partsinevelos. >> their motto is keep commerce human. that is their motto, but when we are talking about keeping the momentum going, at its peak last year the number of active users they added new buyers was $12. million. analysts are expecting 8 million heading into this past quarter we are seeing a growth trend that is decelerating it is slightly concerning. however, the gross merchandise stails sales, that's the number of -- i guess the amount that we are buying per active user was $46 and that's an increase compared to last year at $37 people are on the site long e spending a little bit more trends we will be looking for is

which merchandise product categories are growing vacation stuff, wedding stuff. face masks in general were popular last year. can this momentum continue as the pandemic starts to wean off and as we go off and not buy as many thing on line. >> the p/e is still 78 nancy, we talked about how some of the other stay-at-home trades are down this year etsy hasn't been prey to that. amazon either. what would you do with etsy here >> i would wait for earnings obviously, if it sells off as it has in three of the last four quarters i think it is an interesting time to look at the name they are adding users. they are as chrikristina partsinevelos said staying on the site and spending more and the diverse supply chain this company has kind of mitigates some of the risks that other retailers, full, wall prey to. i think it's an interesting name

for the long term we don't own it we are looking for an opportunity the get in they may give it to us this quarter. watch their comments on early christmas.shog if they are pulling forward sales, that's something you want to be aware of. >> maybe this is the company's opportunity to try to differentiate itself from a purely stay-at-home beneficiary or a pandemic beneficiary like you swayed the masks to a platform that was able to gain permanent share. >> right they have over 50 different categories for merchandise i think the concern, though, is will there be any supply chain problems in because they is other people's stuff they low inventory most of the people are making the goods on there kelly, to your point, that's a way that etsy could stand out from the bunch because they are not shipping products in from overseas can they are not getting stuck at ports instead, people are using their basements to make you knit hats and maybe that tiny coffee table made out of wood. >> for the tiny people that use it >> sorry i don't know

these are things i looked up too much mind. >> it is always fun to see you that platform you can never predict where all the trends are. kristina partsinevelos thank you very much. nancy tensionler, thank you for being here today. we are about 20 minutes away now from the highly anticipated federate decision. up next, what the fed needs to do to avoid a repeat of 201's taper tantrum and take a look at allbirds this priced at $15 last night. opened at $21, is at almost $29 right now. nearly a doubling from the ipo price. we will continue to watch bird. remember, catch the show any time anywhere by listeni tngo and following the exchange podcast. we are back in a moment. gold. your strategic advantage.

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♪ it's all right ♪ ♪ have a good time 'cause it's all right ♪ ♪ oh, it's all right ♪ you. >> welcome back, everybody the federate decision is 15 machines away. tapering is expected to be announced.

my next guest expects jay powell to deliver the punch del accountly, he is calling it the taper two-step what do you mean. >> i think the fed wants to separate tapering from rate hikes. i think he has to reemphasize that just because they are tapering doesn't put us on a set time clock towards tighten i think they will try to define that between the two steps. >> there is always the fine line between what do you think is going to happen and what you want to happen do you think they are behind the curve here would you want to see them start to discuss rates sooner? >> i think they are behind the curve. i think they are going to have to move faster unanimous what they themselves seem to believe. it is going to take a while to unwind the tapering process has

probably got to be six to eight months, then rate hikes after that so it's going to be a while before they start to hike rates. in the meantime, the economy continues to roll along and wage and price pressures appear to be building. >> that's why i think it is interesting to focus on kind the negative 1% real rate that we are seeing, if you kind of go off ten-year tips. what does that economically tell you? if we ignore everything else, system includes checks supply chain and crosses -- what does the fact that the real rate is at negative 1.5% tell you. >> that the fed is too loose everybody the is talking about the supply chain issues. but there is extraordinarily strong demand being driven by the fiscal steps and easy monetary policy. the economy is very hot right now. i think it is not only because

spline is constrained but also because demand is very strong. >> a good indication of that is the fact that nominal gdp grew 8% last quarter. it was only 2% real. in fact, that's double the pace we saw for the entire previous expansion. what would happen if the fed raised rates by a point, let's say, just to be ridiculous, what would happen to the markets and the economy? >> that would be a shocker to the markets. so there would be a big ad adjustment in the financial markets. setting aside the financial market effects, 1% funds rate would be system lative, just less so than before. just because they are moving in the direction of normalizing monetary policy doesn't mean that policy immediately turns from being very easy to tight. >> again, i know i am asking you a lot of sort of -- to speculate on what could or should happen

here but i want to remind people you think this will be the meeting where he tries to delink the taper from tightening? >> yeah, i think for the next month or two at least that's probably going to be the dominant communications theme we get from the fed, as they are trying to aswaj any fears they are about to go willy-nilly to the tight side i think beyond that as we get to early 2022, if the inflation numbers continue to behave as they have over the last couple months, then that's kinds of going to overtake what the fed would like to do which is to be calm and soothing and step bicep. but i think they are going to have to get themselves in a little bit of a hurry. >> maybe soothing would sound different if that were the hayes. steven thanks very much. still ahead, despite pay hikes and increased retirement benefits included in the second contract deal reached between deare and the uaw employ yes, sir rejected deare shares were lower almost

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second contract proposal reached between the company and the united auto workers union. shares are falling almost 5% today after spiking on monday on deal hopes steama mody has been following the story. what happened? this was obviously unexpected? >> absolutely unexpected this rejection came as a shock not just to john deeree but the market both convinced on monday that a wage hike twice as big as the original offer, better retirement benefits would be enough the appease the workers who have been on strike since mid october. 55% voting against the sweetened offer. the company is relying on salaried employees to keep factories running. ten of the 16 facilities that employ uaw workers across the midwest are seeing lower activity this as deerer continues discussions with the union labor experts point to deere's

surging stock price over the past jeer and ceo john mays' 168% rise in total compensation over theers could of the pandemic as to why workers should demand more at a time when the jobs market remains incredibly hot especially this the industrial sector where a shortage of labor remains a big challenge and higher orders for dirt-moving equipment orders are expected to go up. >> didn't expect this to be the place for labor issues to explode. why not. mondelez and kelg kellogg have experienced the same lately. if the workers are holding out for more, what options does deere have >> that's the question, does this represent a moment where workers are in the driver's seat the second offer suggests they do because they got 10% wage hike,

a ratification bonus of $8,500 it was a better deal but here they are saying look at the profits deere is expecting to make this year, we deserve more. >> seema mody with the latest. as we mentioned deere shares under treasure today that does it for the he can change, everybody. we are a couple minutes away from the fed decision. "power lunch" willav he full coverage right after this quick break.

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you're more than just an investor, you're an owner so you can build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. hi, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. i'm kelly evans along with frank holland this afternoon we are just a few minutes away from the release of the fed statement. the central bank's taper time line in focus. before we get the our panel of experts, let's check on markets going into the decision. the dow, the s&p, and nasdaq dow is at session lows, down 141. s&p down here, down six points nasdaq hanging on to a seven-point gain liz young, head of vote. strategy at sofi, michael curbma

of morgan stanley investment management great of you both here liz, in just a couple of minutes' time, what's the most important thing to watch for >> i think the most important thing to watch for today, kelly is the language around this. we are all expecting a taper we are hopefully getting some kind of message about rate hikes. i don't think we are going to get a very clear signal about when hikes are coming because the fed doesn't want to scare the market we have to wonder, what do we though about this fed? we know they value flexibility we know they hate surprises and they like to wait and see how things affect the market before they make another move i think we are going to hear a lot of that today. >> michael, everybody is betting, at least the market seems to be betting there is going to be a rate hike sometime around june 2022 does it matter whether it happens in june 2022 or later? is the just the fact they are announcing a rate hike is that the big news for the market >> i think it will be a big deal they have tried to delink continuering from rate hikes

saying just because we are tapering doesn't mean rate hikes are imminent it is communicated as something that will happen as season as tapering is finished, that would be a surprise. i would expect them to express a little bit of patience that the wait after tapering to see had you things are going. >> david kelly is with us as well, chief global strategy at jp morgan. i am going to make you give us a straight prediction in the next ten seconds before we find out >> i think they will announce a schedule of tapering starting this month or next month but i don't expect a first rate hike until december after the midterm elections in 2022. >> but we are not getting the dots, are we >> no, we don't get the dots yet. i expect in the commentary we will -- perhaps joy powell will make it clear that he is going to wait a while. i think that's code for waiting until after the 2022 midterm

elections before the fed makes the move. >> the teernl, 1.57% before the meeting. it had sunk all the way down to almost 1.5% earlier this week. the strong jobs information turning that around early this morning. let's get to steve liesman with the fed decision today what can you tell us >> the federal reserve leaving rates unchanged but announcing it will begin tapering or reducing its asset purchases of $120 billion this month. it will do so by $15 billion, $10 billion of treasuries, $5 billion of mortgage-backed securities it begins this month the fed will taper again in december it's athounsing the decision for next month and expects to do so in the following months. however, the fed says it will adjust the taper amount if warranted by changes in the economic outlook on the economy, it says it continues to strengthen, helped by vac