massive factor this season with individual stock moves in both directions >> has been very pronounced. investors keeping stocks on a short leash going into next year pretty remarkable that the overall market has been able to absorb that i long with the exuberance >> the worst performing stock this week? >> tesla >> 15.5% lower that's going to do it for us "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the nasdaq market from times square, this is "fast money. i'm melissa lee. tonight break out your credit cards, we are going on a shopping spree and names to keep on your shopping list. johnson & johnson is splitting

into two just days after ge announced it was heading to splitsville. >> and next year could be a major moment, the truth of this trade. we kick things off with a question is this the most important chart in the market? consumer sentiment taking a nose dive falling to its lower level than a decade. it is lower than during the depth of the pandemic. consumer survey showing one in four americans are cutting back on their standard of living due to higher prices >> is the market ignoring serious consumer concerns? jeff mills, what do you say? >> the market is definitely ignoring it. we push higher i would say the most important chart is inflation

that's the derivation of these consumer concerns. there is so much to figure out you have the consumer confidence index. the conference board surveys 300 household. university of michigan 500 households that hasn't come down as much as university of michigan we will see how that makes out but a lot of these are at odds with retail sales data, at odds with people quitting their job it's hard to figure out what it means for the macro picture. i am going to go out on a limb and say as we sit here today we are really at the peak of inflation, concerns, supply chain issues i think incrementally, the narrative will start the shift

in that direction. you are starting to see chip production in taiwan october the delivery time for chips. it was the smallest gain we saw. cracks in the supply chain is hurting this narrative trucking rates are coming down 12 days of container ships just sitting around that's coming down those are early signs looking towards these areas versus consumer confidence. you see small cap stocks breaking out even risk like bitcoin i think we are setting up good until the end of the year. nadine, for the first time americans will be spending holidays together face-to-face i don't think people will be holding back their credit cards or wallets on gifts, but you

could see a sharp pullback in spending when the calendar page turns. >> i think you are right inflation. we are getting strong reads, but certain aspects are coming down. we are also talking about consumer confidence and sentiments what i thought was most important coming into the week was implied volatility premiums. what are those it's kind of like the cost of protection a lot of people had protection we knew that maybe we would get a 3, 3 1/2% down side versus upside that's where you saw an early weak decline but then people are back in. people unwound some of that protection we look at what are those premiums being paid for protection they are still on there. they are still short

there could be room for a continued meltup here. >> is that what you are seeing, bo inch amp wyn? >> you see it in some of the vix and growth name. i think that's what nadine is getting at when people have this protection on, you start to have some -- you have some short-term holders trading out of that. they have stocks where they have to let go of stuff andother people who scoop in when this implied volatility comes off the vix is back towards normalized levels. mid teens here don't seem overblown to me. in terms of sentiment and what i am taking from the market, i would be cautious until i see the real trade into consumer

spending habits. keep in mind this has been delevered through this situation. there are concerns, but you look at older and lower income individuals, you would always expect those to be a bit more stretched when it comes to inflationary pressure. all of that said, if you look at emerging markets, you start to see rates tick up which leads into the domestic market when you look at the global picture matched with what we are seeing from consumer spending trades, i would be hesitant to try to short this market and break trend despite the negative reading. >> no one is worried, steve grasso look the other way what do you say? >> i was actually hoping i would be the only one to say i wasn't

worried about it >> that's consensus. >> historically a very blownout high reading on consumer sentiment is indicative of actual recession when that peaks, you always have inflation in a follows to jeff's point, doesn't this help out with inflation concerns i would say yes. if you are worried about the market, don't be on this there are plenty of other things to be worried about with the market to bonawyn's point, there was too much money shoved down the consumers' throats during this pandemic so worry, i think it's probably too obvious to think my god, the market is going to fall out of bed now. counter intuitive.

when it hits rock bottom, it actually signifies a boon in the economy that is coming >> a contrarian indicator. next week is a huge slate of retail earnings. which name should you bet on let's play a good old-fashioned game of shop it or drop it if a trader likes a stock they will shop it if not, they will drop it. walmart, shop it or drop it? >> i am going to shop it it is one of the best logistics operators out there. you can see their price gaps with other retailers and grocers, they are looking more attractive so the low end of our trading range is 147.50 and high end

153.30 i like the odds and it is trading in a momentum way. there is huge implied volatility premium. people have been paying for protection so i like this setup for fundamental and technical reasons. >> steve >> i am going to say drop this one predominantly on technicals. if you go back to august, this is right where the stock fell. this is a textbook double top. it looks like the chart wants to go lower most companies raise wages during the pandemic to get workers back i like the sign-on bonuses i think walmart is always worried about raising wages. i don't disagree we what nadine said, but the technical setup is

for a drop in the stock. >> home depot is also reporting tuesday. bonawyn, shop it or drop it? >> i am shopping it. we spoke about inflationary pressures. to me what is idiosyncratic about the housing market is that you are seeing these across the various segment. the most important i would argue is actually housing supply that sets up in terms of reinvestment in ones home, whether it is to resale or refinance. it will lead to pressure to refinance. all of that bodes well for home improvement like home depot. >> i am going to say drop it stock is up 14%.

i know carter talked about it. if you look at the price, big spikes, sideways to down big spike, sideways to down. that's sort of where we are. my guess is we are sideways and down from here i think some of the recent news, zillow getting out of the home sales business i think you will have this spending transition, i don't think it bodes well for home depot. it has gotten a little rich, so drop it. >> petco, shop it or drop it >> i am going to be a shotter of this one during the pandemic, people rescued animals and bought animals. this is a perfect technical setup.

sitting at 50% retrace from this year's high to the lows so i would shop it >> what do you say about woof, the ticker >> i am going to drop this a little too much bark and not enough bite. steve mentioned there was a real boom in terms of spenders spending around pets, rescue animals, additions to the family, things of that nature. i don't think that persists post covid. look at chewy. they have done a tremendous job in terms of their online presence when i look at petco and their setup and what they are trying to do. their move into veterinary and online, i am not sure the growth is there i'm dropping this one. >> tjx out wednesday

shop it or drop it >> i am going to drop it i think it is a little expensive. to mow it is an inflation driven story with consumer confidence numbers. it is impactful for the higher ends so i am going to shop this one. >> nadine? >> i am going to shop this one they have good offering for price sensitive consumers. this is not as juicy as i usually talk about, up and down 5% on the net-net i would shop it an after hours alert on dollar tree. let's go to contessa for the details. >> mantle ridge has taken a 5.7%

cnbc has learned, in dollar tree he is apparently planning to push action to overall dollar tree thinking that it could boost its underperforming shares if it could make improvement to the family dollar chain. you can see after hours it is dropping 3.33% >> jeff mills, what do you think of this? >> i pulled the chart up it is in no man's land trading sideways for a year or longer. you are getting close to that. my comment about tjx retail in that space i am not particularly a fan of just because of the head winds for the lower end consumer

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welcome back to "fast money. another break-up johnson & johnson shares rising after it announced it was spinning off its business. >> this has been talked about but is actually happening. the $15 billion will be traded into a publicly-traded company within the next two years. that leaves a $77 billion in phrma suit cal and medical devices. brands like tylenol, band-aids and listerine. >> our phrma and medical device business tend for more of a relationship in intermediaries, and most importantly, where we see things going into the

future, we feel now is the right time to make this move ultimately it will allow us to reef more patients and execute in a much more focused way >> generally pretty positive on this plan. if you look at the projected sales growth, expected to grow by 5.8%. these are projections from wells fargo. the stock this morning when the deal was first announced was up 4% it sell theed down to a fairly muted 1% or so at the end of the day. >> johnson & johnson not the only company heading to splitsville. both ge and toshiba announcing break dwlups week. once upon a time johnson & johnson was constructed and

built such that the consumer business provided cash flow to the riskier side of the business now all of a sudden we are undoing that >> it is all cyclical. what i don't like about it is it steps up for good stock, bad stock. companies, when they are going for a splittup, they are going for a higher valuation, but that also means the lower valuation is left alone. i am not a big fan of this to your point there are so many things we can look about to the obvious much which is facebook potentially being forced to spin out or break-up. there are so many things you can do but those companies probably

wouldn't do it on their own because they want to keep the higher multiple. i understand why there would be a knee-jerk reaction to buy it, but i don't think it makes sense longer term. >> those are brands that face enormous competition i am thinking of amazon, first, they have a generic or in-house version of everything under the sun at this point. >> you are right, mel. i used to work in an activist's shot there is a lot of wood to chop employees concerned about the unknown. do they stay tore leave. financial and other shared systems have to get broken apart. so many things to get figured out. it is hard to translate what you put on a piece of paper into

reality. 8 to 24 months is forever for most investors the strategy can be fruitful for people over time, but the deal terms, they will be making money on them. >> they made money putting them together and will make money breaking them apart. >> that's right. the truth of this trade. isk ghafr bacrit te th if you could have the perspective to see more? at morgan stanley, a global collective of thought leaders offers investors a broader view. ♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead.

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the pot cannabis surging almost 9%. check out these big moves. bonawyn, you are looking at these big moves today. >> i was i really think the moves higher are underscored by two things. one, the news, how they may be considering buying the balance i think any time you have a multinational conglomerate, i think that bodes well for the secular trend. and more importantly on the legislative front. possible proposal of at least the beginning steps to legal marijuana on a federal level that is what everyone has been waiting for. there has been push and pull between states

i think there iss an expectatio on this cannabis >> there is expectation that there will be a bill monday. is there more in this trade despite a rally? >> i think you are right nancy mace will be talking about it monday afternoon. we will be looking if there are signs of safe banking action but we will be looking to schumer, why he may be interested in supporting it. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the hoard. steve grasso >> rivian. i am waiting for a better position to get in my position >> nadine? >> mastercard was explosive this

week and we think there is a lot more to come >> bonawyn. >> black stone, bx it has done well >> jeff? >> paypal. i think it has been beat up enough >> that does it for us but do not go anywhere "options action" next.

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>> it's friday time for "options action." here is what is on the big show tonight. >> earnings season may be coming to a close, but there are several big retailers who still have to wrap things up carter worth helps you decide which could be the gift that keeps on giving. then, the land of th