the dow futures indicated up by about 145 points, nasdaq up by about 65, s&p indicated up over 16 the ten-year note still useding just at about -- actually picked up a bit, 1.527% see you tomorrow, do it all over again? >> yes, looking forward to it. right now "squawk on the street." good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber. cramer is out west at one market in san francisco for a big week of tec coverage. the president signs the infrastructure bill, house is back from recess, and some cooling in the oil market. we have crude below 80, afternoon gasoline futures 10% off the highs. our road map, stocks look to

resume their rally musk versus sandsers, trolling on twitter and control covid, control inflation, the treasury secretary saying the end of inflation depends on the u.s. pandemic response. first, though, let's get to jim to talk about why he's out west, and what you have planned for the week. >> i think most the the leadership is actually out here. when you look at artificial intelligence, this is what is driving the market i think one of the things people have forgotten it's still a faang market and, you know adjust faang because of the google and facebook, but it's a metaverse market you know what's happening? that means roblox, unity software and the old facebook. whether we like it or not, it's what's moving. >> we have talked about it for

weeks now, of course, it goes back to a number the number was $10 billion that was the number from facebook assist last earnings report when the company indicated it was going to spend $10 billion -- that's a number most companies can't even come close to -- they're spending it reducing income by a like amount over the course of this year, just to build this so-called metaverse. >> look. we need everyone to go to the nvidia jensen wong conference call, his keynote, his is called omniverse, trying to get people so that their -- it's about medical cure, it's about science, it's about speed to mark i think that's what's driving that stock, david, not not the worry about whether they -- >> well, again, it has captured the imagination of investors over the last few weeks, ever

since it was introduced into the conversation we weren't talking metaverse until he decided to devote a lot of his conference call to it, until we heard the $10 billion number the biggest beneficiary seems to be nvidia, quickly passing the $700 million investment, on its way to perhaps $800 billion. amd also benefiting in part, roblox you mentioned, i don't know if there are any others, or you're going to be hearing about other companies that potential are also going to benefit from all this spending that's taking place that's to come still over the next few years. >> the u unity software university of miami is very good, but unity software i believe if you get on nvidia's platform, you're able to solve a lot of the world's problems, whether it's global warming whether what to do with carbon

capture, whether what to do with new vaccines, and, by the way, the term inference is what he keeps using, carl. if i told a machine to go jump in the lakes, the old ones, the machines would jump into lake erie, the new one realized it's sa satirical. over the weekend bay crest said the inability to show further break down in the has to be respected, and removing their cautionary call. do you think that makes sense? >> a ton of sense. some of that i don't like. we had a salesforce price bump why? because the market is going higher is basically what they said we're now starting to pay more pay more for workday the cloud stocks, whether -- the

cloud stocks -- and i think where we're coming from, carl, is the idea what we do with the bank stocks, the drug stocks, what do we do just in general the industrials? we don't know. we end up buying tech and watch microsoft up $2 today they're anointed as winner, and frankly when they're anointed, it won't stop. >> as we get through walmart, target in terms of not just inflation, but the plans, of course, for the all-important holiday season

>> i think, there was a headline item over the weekend about basically promoting delivery, right? we'll see, jim a sizable inventory build is coming the great est. >> i love that it replaces the great resignation. if you want to play hole die, dick's, macy's best buy. walmart, my charitable trust owns it.

i don't necessarily seed walmart yesterday as a leader, because there's been a -- that said i think that walmart has a great prospect for 2022. theyspent a ton of money to make it competitive. and they want to pass amazon possible >> uh, no, no but they can be competitive. >> brick and mortar and omnichannel. as a percentage, retail started to come back a bit in part it's because of the the suck of strategies buy it online, it does seem to be

effective. >> remember, 29% of macy's is h harold square. remember where it was. i know it looks like it's overextended, but it's very hard to find a -- except for walmart. >> i think walmart is overextended >> no. >> i don't know how he does it, carl though i did interview mark wirth a while ago. by the way you're having getsinger on does he listen to the show >> no, but i listened to the conference call, so it will be interesting.

i think that's great. >> i think it's great that russell wilson came back last night. >> he didn't look so good. a bit rusty. about lean ing we don't necessarily want it in china. that's -- so we have to stay close to that if they didn't appoint powell, i think the market will have a tough week. >> the journal sits it's basically -- also, jim, is the

biden/xi summit tonight and whether taiwan is the headline or easing tariffing. the headline is boeing he gave a boeing nod, but then when he start talking about taiwan, he's talking about the one china. he's not willing to do what trump did, to say to xi, before we get started, i'll drop a bomb on your head if we don't -- taiwan bide been doesn't do that >> he doesn't? >> no, biden doesn't >> now, look, suddenly i know what i'm doing

boeing -- there's too many planes, as a matter of fact is biden going to talk about, say, human rights >> the bloomberg piece about the max getting close to clearance to fly in china, they're -- which would be big news. we mentioned musk's replies to bernie sanders over the woke jean the other is lucid wins motor car of the year. >> that's wee we're going there tomorrow i think lucid is the great luxury ev.

i they 0 to 80 in something like 6 or something >> jim, it's the first time a first model has ever been car of the year we talked a lot about the stock itself which has just been a great one to own. >> i do wonder at a 71-plus billion dollar market value, very close to your favorite company, ford's market value. >> these are not tech -- these -- technology car, not

internal combustion engines. if you said -- it's almost at if ford were to close its combustion engines carl, i tire of the deal after deal after deal that makes it seem like all of these will have a lot of business. they're not. rivian, big institutions seemed to have gotten all they need now that one is at the mercy of the people who bought it so it's lucid's time again lucid tomorrow i know peter rolofson is not at all promotional. [ laughter ] >> longer range, and year one, as they would say. >> that's all true, it would appear at this point it's a very high price point jim, where the dream, or -- you're starting at 80, right

>> 80. it's like a bmw, i don't know, david, bmw 5 class, you know like the cost of my suit [ laughter ] >> by the way, mizuho, with some global sales, to 1.3 million units. ten percent global penetration now, so we're starting to see real numbers. >> let's go back to what they said about senator sanders i know he's not happy that union car makers are get a better deal if you buy than nonunion, even though the nonunion guys make more i think musk has -- i think -- if anyone else -- there's now 330 million that could not get away with what he said david, let's say you said it, don't you think it would be ill

shove advised? >> yes, but i'm in a very different position than that man, who isknown for taking to twitter, making statements of a similar type that are surprising but that's the way it's gone for him. it's worked. listen, he is our greatest single entrepreneur, i guess you could say. we talk about tesla. don't forget the spacex, all the things he's done and continues to do. he dreams it up, but does execute on a lot of these things promotion is a part of it. he doesn't raise the capital how about respect? carl, how about respect? does that not play any role? doesn't sanders gets a little respect? am i off base with the respect

thing? >> it's kind of nasty. i wouldn't like it if somebody said that about you. >> how can you say it about yourself do you think you have some license because i'm not there? do people know what's going on during the dark commercials? >> you're a bit older than i am. >> needlessly provocative. >> you're closer in age to bernie than i am it was mean. >> you took a cheap shot and then talk about the rich guy michael klein. what, did you have a bad weekend? , what are you talking about >> it's that -- like the billionaires, you're not in favor of the hedge fund billionaires carl, he's got a problem with billionaires. >> carl, do we think the hedge fund billionaires need my support? >> they're counting on it. it's only 6:00 in the morning

there, so maybe he needs his coffee. >> give me an espresso we'll get more from jim out at one market all day long he's going to join us on "techcheck" later, which we can't wait for a nice string of weekly gains. we'll see how much holds in the opening bell in less than 15 minutes. so, you want evs, you have come to the right place. is that tom brady? yeah. he comes in to recharge, get software updates. you know. let's go! your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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welcome back spending a lot of time with people we hear from all the time -- but everybody pointing fingers at everybody else for what continues to be the

significance of supply chain disruptions. potentially the building inventories, at least many of the retailers hope that would be the case, but it also ties up with inflation as well, you saw the journal story i'm sure, that the fed really cannot move then you have beneficiaryiaries of it as well, and whether or not the fed really can hold the line here without getting more aggressive in the near term. supplying getting bigger, maybe as senator schumer said. there are some companies that are just crushing it when it comes to -- watch out. nvidia has a device.

mean time b of a had a note about vietnam over the weekend, where a lot of our footwear and apparel, but vax rate over there is still only 30%. they think a further 5% price hike in footwear and apparel is plausible. what is the u.s. supposed to do? >> well storks footlocker reports on friday. there will be a lot of talk this week about apparel and what's going up too much. nike's stock was initially hurt by this, and fears from china. subsequently fears from china have not come aabout

it's not the middle class that the government is after. nike seems impervious to this news, carl impervious it seems that nike is the one to own for apparel going into the holiday. i'm not going to disagree with it. >> guys, i did want to end with, you know, just replaying a couple thoughts we got last week, at least dan coty had been -- and we heard from larry culp it's worth listening again both of them hit the theme hard. take a listen. >> the supply chain challenges the world over, material, logistics, labor are very real i can't tell you today, unfortunately that things are getting better i'm not convinced they're getting worse, but they're challenging. they have every expectation they will be challenging through thus the next several quarters. >> we're starting to see our

data centers that will be unable to be completed. at the same time, we're dealing with aggressive inflation, most of us as business leaders have been saying for months this is not transitory, this is not a two-month issue. you're starting to see that the labor market, and i find it astounding that our political sluice to this commission fire we have right now is to pour gasoline on it >> carl, that gets back to the debate about the current $2 trillion potential social infrastructure bill and whether that will in some way be inflationary. >> larry summer with a good thread this morning. he says this bill over the time period is not a strong inflationary force opening bell just a few moments away

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arrives in court today, we'll talk more about that perhaps later. here's the opening bell, u.s. steel celebrating the 125th anniversary at the nasdaq. it's qualcomm celebrating its investor day when you think about steel companies, you first think about nucor, and then i think you -- but then u.s. steel. if you want to know about apple, the only company i have ever voiced the name apple is qualcomm

you know that qualcomm has always had a contentious relationship with apple, but at their analyst day tells a positive story about 5g. it's a better relationship than it's probably ever been. >> a new ceo doesn't hurt. >> yeah, that doesn't hurt qualcomm last quarter had a very strong report, and very good response really, he's coming on again. >> is he on "techcheck," my show he's on my show! >> well, you're every show jim, you know what, have you seen the reviews for the new chip and new laptops that apple has, and how everybody is gushing over the computing power of these new chips that, by the way, apple developed on its own

having said thank you very much, intel, we don't need you anymore? >> i have it, it's lightning speed, incredible. i feel like when i'm on it, david, i feel creative, because it's so fast it's remarkable. they really did kiss intel good-bye it was like, it was great working with you, it was like here's your hat, here's the door, don't let it hit you on the way out. pat gelsinger can come on the show >> when it comes to chips, of course, they have to go into data centers building data centers, advising on the technology, building the communications into data centers.

two deals. an interesting choice to get into this business, with the core sight transaction that you're talking about we're talking about 7.5 billion, where you don't include debt, and cyrus one also gets a large private equity deal done that's 11.5 billion. you can see that one there had been an expectation to get a deal, as i said, it was quite some time, and of course also potential reported on as an acquisition target as well, jim, about you it does go back to -- this is an interesting moment for data centers in general. we even hearty from cote talking about it >> i think it was interesting, american tower boxed in by andy -- there's only two left.

they couldn't buy one ofthose. i think the antitrust would block that i think the idea of buys these companies -- remember, these are amazon, google, when you rip into these, you see a lot of high performance chips these are companies, frankly that is junior 20% warehouses, david, not much more than that. >> right they're talking about it bringing together american towers wireless technology and highly interconnected facilities at the core edge to create what they say is an extended edge the edge keeps moving for their customers that can seamlessly support high performance and low latency applications that's what we get to talking about. >> b of a has a good cloud cap ex tracker, which is tracking

year on year, and m & a they say would be a big part of that amd and, of course, specifically nvidia >> inside one of these data centers is always nvidia, because it's the fastest really it's about the notion of speed. but you can't do it without nvidia by the way, a lot of what nvidia started 20 years old it was a 20-year view, carl, most people in tech do not have a 20-year view, but that's always been the way jensen has tho thought. >> look at that. that screen right there is a nice snapshot of the week, given

the earnings picture, jim, will be a mix of retail and tech. cisco, nvidia, williams snow mania. >> you think we're out of earnings season? but these are the companies that give you a forecast for the holiday season i think the pressure will be on again on the fed i think they'll talk about they have a lot of inventory and they're ready for the season david, the negativity when it comes to retail is really mispl misp misplaced we have a lot of inventory. i am less saturnine. >> i'm not lagugrious, either.

it could be a swart mournful christmas, i don't know. >> williams sonoma will be on. you'll hear about a person, laura alber, trying to figure out summer chain the person who spent the most on supply chain, is best buy, some of these people thought about this a lot time ahead. >> you have pointed that out, especially in terms of best buy. jim, we're on retail, i would love to take a quick mention of dollar tree. >> yes >> it gets into the activist lane here. we'll do -- there's a couple news items dollar tree, though, looked like it was up. it's up almost 8%. manta ridge is the name of the form here. remember csx, hunter harrison as

ceo, kind of an unusualening arrangement in terms of the role the activist played there. some of the compensation, if i recall this stock has been higher than -- you see where its. it's traded as high as this, april, fell and back, rumors of an activist. what this comes along with, jim, ha look may have a new ceo in mind people do point out that the former kreismt off of dollar general is on the board of aramark, which was one of the companies that halal came after. there is some speculation that

perhaps that's dreyling is looking for here >> well, dollar tree never really recovered from family dollar, and they have a new ceo that i would like to see a bit of a chance. if you overlay dollar trees over dollar general, you'll see dollar general is remarkably well run and dollar tree is fits and starts i think this makes plenty of sense as to what to go after look at that disparity they're in the same kind of dollar game. when you go to dollar general versus dollar tree, aren't the struck by a lot of merchandise that -- >> yes, always. >> i've got ten pairs of sunglasses for the price of half of a ray-ban. >> no kidding. make sure the uv is proper on

those sunglasses >> uv? >> that's the whole point of having sunglasses. >> i look like, i don't know, brad pitt when i wear the dollar tree. >> oh, you do, it's true >> it's all about the looks. elliott has been there for a long time. they had a very nasty letter last july, questions remain as to whether duke leadership is capable of maximizing the value of and should continue to manage its businesses outside of the footprint. they reached a settlement. they get one board member, great to one other one that's off the boards for now, jim. >> carl, watch me get david mad. the most exciting deal was casper, the unfriendly stock

casper sleep this was a company that came public with high hopes >> it was a spac deal. >> yeah. this shows you the kind of -- >> did nothing but go down >> and speaking of relatively new entrants to the public markets, oak leaf down 20%, follows in the wake of beyond meat's blowup last week. >> that was so horrible. the one that's really surprising me is vita cocoa every single company that wrote about it is coco, like chanel, and it is really roaring >> i don't know if you saw that, somebody who's been focused on

it point out to me, occupiesy is going up it's interesting, when they put out their projections for what things would look like, they actually told people by the end of the year we expect 74% physical occupiesy occupancy they went up 300 basis points. it was on their investor day, jim, but you don't see the 74% estimate for occupancy at the end of 2021 any longer i'm not sure if that means it's no longer the guidance they're providing, but they have a long way to go in a short amount of time if they're going to get there. >> if you come out here, i think there's the central office in

san francisco seems to have just gone away. the only person walking was -- there is just not a lot of people working in the central office out here. this is a different world, carl, much more like when you talked to dr. gottlieb, in this area, it acts one of the greater area of covid striking, but it really isn't. i think downtown has been a bit abandoned. >> new york city has the lowest positivity of the entire state, thanks in part to our good vaccination rates. we are paying attention, though, to the decline in cases which has flattened out a bit, in addition to the concerns that the germans have, and now the austrians, as they initiate new lockdowns for some unvaccinated. >> there's some vaccine resistance in germany as well. we have to keep an eye on hospitalization. there are breaking cases, but most often, thankfully they

don't lead to serious outcome if you've been vaccinated if you haven't, carl, it's a different scenario, but there are many who say, it's never going away, it's going to be in the background, including gottlieb, and we do need to move ahead with all precaution taken, but nonetheless move ahead when it comes to people going back to the office, we have talked about this endlessly, they won't be going back five days a week, four days a week, maybe you get them back three days a week, or in san francisco, and other parts of california, where mere mandating masks in the offices themselves, even when you're sitting, that's not a great incentive to want to go in. >> no. cisco does well in a hybrid environment, and also palo alto. williams sonoma does well in a hybrid environment

these are the companies -- we thought this was over, carl. we thought that this whole think about uses tractor supply, was over the now it's the opposite people are saying, you know what i'll resign if i can't get my way. the great resignation is all over the place people keep resigning, what are they doing >> 4.4 million last month alone. >> what are they doing, carl what are they watching what are they he doing >> it's a good breakdown of it over the weekend, largely because of noneconomic reasons, child care, not so much the unemployment benefits, but other noneconomic reasons. the dow is up 100, most sectors agrees bob pisani >> a slow march upward continues. really in the last few days. essentially we're at new highs

we're all sitting near new highs. take a look at the sectors today. retail is a hot story, sever since dillard's a few days ago banks holding up well. semiconductors are still doing well healthcare is still a laggard. it's actually down for the month. you want to talk about supply chain issues, inflation, tyson is a good one to look at they did have volumes down, significant cost pressures on them for protein, but the important thing is they were able to raise prices, so look at this, advertisen is up they have

a new productivity program that they're launching, but the bottom line is they're telling you we're passing on the costs to the consumers successfully so far their operating margins still 7.29%. we are in the middle of all these concerns about labor shortages and supply-chain issues, we are printing a record number for third quarter estimates. never had that number before higher than even the second quarter. the fourth quarter is lower. you see the estimate, but they'll probably raise that. they've been doing this for a year, underextending the real numbers. nor at trend continues that's the key story

so companies not only revenues are going up they're able to get to the bottom line more officially. 13.2% is 9 operating margin for the s&p 500. second quarter was -- that was a report 13. the historic averages are 8, 9%. they've been higher in the last several years, and this is why the stock market keeps holding up to well as for the rest of the earnings season, it's basically over, but the key story is the retailers have done really wet they got a big boost last week the comp sales were up it was double what anybody estimated, so everybody started raising the estimates immediately. other parts of it were doing well so the xrt is what you want to look at it it's equal-weighted,

sitting at a high here dillard's may surprise very much to the up side >> bob, thank you. as with he go to break we'll get a fair amount of macro. housing starts on wednesday, philly fed thursday, pretty much yields higher across as the long bond approaching 2%. we'll be right back. snee ebenezer. ebenezer. ha ha ha ha. marley? first you will see the past.

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so, you want evs, you have come to the right place. is that tom brady? yeah. he comes in to recharge, get software updates. you know. let's go!

it's time for jim and a west coast edition of stop trading. >> one of the best performing stocks over the last couple years is crowd strike, carl, which is a native, cloud native cyber security company and morgan stanley started with a sell which is unusual. palo alto has been gunning for them they're saying this part of the market has gotten crowded. rare to see a sell so much good cheer going on in the market, but when you see one people flee. that's an interesting idea that maybe sell crowd strike. it is crowded in that segment. >> yeah. watching splunk down about 13 as the ceo leaves what's on "mad" tonight? >> that's unbelievable because splunk was featured in the incredible keynote of jensen we have to spend more time on that and working on that today it's really big. doug has been on the show a million times. >> and then you have lev and

lawson and worth and five 9 today. >> these are companies on the move five 9 is up, chevron best acting oil company of the large ones and affirm, the star of the show. >> and then we're -- tell us what you're going to do on tech check? you'll be there with de? >> i'm a supporting player hoping to help with insights it's one of the reasons i wanted to come out here, you know how much i think "tech check" has changed the morning, the whole thing. it's such a good show i'm proud to be on it. >> we can't wait to have you, jim. see you in a bit jim cramer out of one market dow hanging on to a 100-point gain don't go anywhere. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this.

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good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan and david faber live at post nine of the new york stock exchange setting up for a busy week in d.c. as we sign the infrastructure bill, how gets back to work a bunch of retail earnings on the way and tech including nvidia, cisco and alibaba this week. >> 30 minutes into the trading

session so here are three movers we are watching this morning we'll start with tesla motoring lower after a weekly loss last week that ended an 11-week win streak stock is down 3% right now to down about 10% since the start of november. it's still up like 70% in the last six months. plus, oatly plunging after reporting results, revenue below forecasts. the company saying it faced challenges due to covid-related restrictions but continues to scale production, but you can see the shares are down more than or about 18% right now. finally, boeing, saying it's, quote, getting close to resuming deliveries of a 787 dreamliner and the 787 max in china after those regulators there reportedly told airlines they're satisfied that boeing's proposed design changes could resolve safety problems according to reuters. the 737 has been banned in china over two years and that headline coming ahead of the biden/xi

virtual summit today you can see shares of boeing are up 4%, carl. markets as we said off to a good start to the week inflation still in focus for a lot of investors the treasury secretary commented on the issue over the weekend. >> the pandemic has been calling the shots for the economy and inflation and if we want to get inflation down, i think continuing to make progress against the pandemic is the most important thing we can do. you're seeing some big increases in the prices. >> when does it get better when do those spikes update? >> when the economy recovers enough from covid that demand patterns, people go back to eating out, traveling more, spending more on services, and the demand for products, for goods, begins to go back to normal >> our mike santoli is looking at whether or not broader

markets are under reacting to that threat. >> carl, yeah, really the evidence right now says markets probably are not under reacting by taking that hot inflation data last week in stride for one reason, as secretary yellen was suggesting, we still are in what you would consider the transitory window. in other words, that period of time when inflation was expected to remain elevated, even if it was eventually going to decline. keep in mind last week the cpi came in at 6.2 the forecast for 5.8 core 4.6% year over year, the forecast was 4.3 it's not as if we were expecting things to have got an whole lot better and coming with very high real and nominal growth, profit margins on companies are staying resilient and earnings continuing to go higher although for the fourth quarter i think remuted revision trends. it's not going to last forever it is fair to say how long a leash investors will allow for the inflation story to play out, the next few months we actually will have very depressed

readings from a year earlier that we're going to be anniversarying there is an upside bias through february it remains to be seen these valuations if the market is going to be great with more hot inflation numbers, and, of course, companies manage to capture part of inflation over time that's one reason people say equities are a good inflation hedge. they are to some degree but i'm not sure buying the s&p at 21 times forward earnings is a great starting place to say we're going to reaps the benefits of inflation, if it really takes flight, guys. >> you make such key points, mike, from a market perspective and we're talking about record margins for many of these companies, mass adoption of digital technology and digital products across industries which helped through this process and pandemic too, but the fact that we're getting all of these key readings on the consumer this week, retail earnings, retail sales, whether it's some of the housing data we're starting to see signs that's starting to come off too,how much does tha matter right now to investors or is it still really wait and see

no matter what >> i think that stuff matters, morgan you want to see that spending is still staying on course. you know, we have lousy consumer sentiment numbers. people tried to parse them many ways we haven't seen a let up in demand what's interesting is secretary yellen says, the inflation is almost all in durable goods. that's where the key drivers of the upside is. we once to see people buy less stuff over time to ease some of the bottlenecks but i don't think you want to see a hard stop to the inflation or spending patterns going into the fourth quarter >> mike, thank you president biden is expected to announce whos the fed chair will be as soon as this week. current chair powell and brainard are considered top picks. the politics behind the decisio >> the number of teams available, the term that spans

multiple administrations puts the chair selection at the center of a highly charged political debate being compared behind the scenes to the supreme court. proponents of powell say he's chartered the economy through the pandemic and a course change would introduce more uncertainty. a renomination, they argue, would reaffirm the fed's independence from politics, but he is a registered republican which progressives say is a nonstarter they largely back governor brainard citing her record on financial regulation and believe personnel is policy and elevating brainard would vacate one more feat allowing democrats three more picks this term it would also widen the mandate of the fed to include climate change and racial equity, they argue. both candidates have twice gotten bipartisan support. gop leadership hasn't been rally members against brainard and two sources believe she could get between 2 and 8 gop votes. democrats have not been united montana moderate jon tester has

pushed for powell and senator bernie sanders has voted against brainard in the past david at brookings suggested a possible middle ground, telling me, they're correct that personnel is really policy and if members of the senate are worried powell is not tough enough on regulation, then appointing brainard, whose creditability on regulation is strong as the vice chair for supervision seems like the perfect compromise one more element to consider according to my sources, brainard is considered the top contender to lead treasury if secretary yellen leaves before the end of the term that may impact the white house's appetite for a confirmation battle yellen weighed in saying a range of candidates are still being considered morgan >> the plot thickens kayla tausche, thank you. we want to get our own steve liesman into this with a look at what a brainard selection could potentially mean for the markets. steve? >> thanks, morgan. most observers see little

daylight between fed chair powell and governor lael brainard brainard slightly less likely to put on the brakes and restrain economic growth to fight inflation, where there are differences they mostly concern policy on the central bank digital currency and financial regulation brainard has never dissented on monetary policy. she's been on the board since 2014 and dissented several times on efforts to ease some of the dodd/frank bank regulations and has generally supported a central bank digital currency. powell has been more circumspect as the leader of the fed brainard on the fed since 2014, not from the progressive wing of the democratic party that appears to be champions her chairship. in june she said, we have the tools and experience to gently guide inflation down to target and no one should doubt our commitment to doing so saying in september, the forward guidance on maximum employment and average inflation sets a higher ball bar for the leftoff

of policy rate than slowing the pace of asset purchases, the same thing powell has said they think the difference is maybe a few between powell and brainard on the mar gypgin on monetary policy. that may be true, it's also true that a fed chair has to steward an 18 person committee always looking for minimal dissent and take responsibility for inflation outcome. brainard as chair could be different from brainard as governor >> interesting, steve. what you're saying sort of notice with the discussion the last couple weeks, that is it's not necessarily that she's more dovish, some argue there's gender bias baked into that, but that her language tends to evolve more slowly over time >> i think that's right. she's very careful i was talking to a person who knows her pretty well about how she used to prepare for some of the international meetings, and they said she would come in with

a binder this thick, over prepare like yellen. yeah, just like that yellen was well-known for that i think she's careful, deliberate, but i don't see her being from thatsort of progressive wing of the party. i would put her more in line with the kind of maybe summers or austin goolsbee, jason furman wing of the economic part of the democratic party carl >> all right steve liesman, thank you as we head to a quick break, here is a look at our road map for the rest of the hour including elon musk and senator bernie sanders get into a twitter spat over the weekend. those details. >> plus it is going to be a big week of retail earnings ahead. one name in the group leading the s&p 500 today, we'll tell you what that name is and why. >> and we'll take you live to beijing ahead of that big virtual meeting between the president and chinese president xi tonight about 7:45 eastern time more "squawk on the street" is straight ahead

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rejected that bitcoin spot etf citing not enough investor protections. joining us this morning, capital management founder and cio adam parker congratulations on the gig good to see you again. >> great to see you. >> oii would love to talk about this basket which folds in both bitcoin and ether and see it as speculation or inflation hedge, but what's your overall framework? >> i used to be a semiconductor analyst years ago and i tell people i didn't know what 10-year yield was, i didn't know if it was three, four, five, just focused on gross margins above consensus or not, right. obviously years later anybody who is a tech analyst or semiconductor analyst knows what interest rates are and sensitivity. my job for big institutional investors w he try to think through what risks could be out there and managed and when we look at crypto, now cnbc you get the update on the performance as

often as the s&p 500 performance, we wanted to see whether that's a risk that equity investors should be monitoring so it turns out that it's pretty hard to replicate equities but seems lately to be correlated to inflation basket we have and also a sort of speculation basket and so i think it's a proxy of some level for that and wouldn't be surprised over the next few years, today's semiconductor analyst or any analyst would start knowing, you know, crypto as well as the 10-year yield. >> interesting you do say you argue it's part speculation, part inflation hedge, but also say it's a highly idiosyncratic asset class. what do you mean by that >> you can't really replicate. it's not like i can say take 30 u.s. equities, mirror basically the return i get from some crypto basket. you can't really do that, right. other stocks, you could basically mirror and say they're less replicable we call it, but

this crypto basket is unique if i take a sort of equity framework that's pretty common, i can only explain maybe 10% of a crypto basket's return it's pretty idiosyncratic. people who think of it as a separate asset class can't get exposure through equities and maybe they will some day, but right now they can't what that means is that more and more asset allocators will consider whether crypto makes sense for their, you know, clients. >> it's interesting to hear you say that, adam i think about like micro strategy which tends to trade higher or lower based on the price of bitcoin on any, you know, given day. so it sounds like -- let me put it this way, should investors have crypto in some form or fashion within their portfolio and if so, then if not through the equity processes, then how >> yeah. so you're right, there are about 30 equities we have a basket of them in for our clients that have actual, you know, crypto

currencies on their balance sheet and they'll trade on it because that's part of their pnl, but some of the other ones correlated to us lately or anti-correlated seems more spurious the market is up and crypto is up, things are correlated but it might not be because of anything other than a spurious relationship i think we need more time and data to really tell, you know, with, you know, a basket of equities whether we get crypto exposure i focus on u.s. equities and portfolio managing and cios that do equities and i don't think that you need to take the bet on on crypto in a portfolio like that if you're an asset allocator or retail investor clearly it's a different and bigger question and i think it's pretty clear that people are, you know, deciding whether they want to advise their clients to have some crypto exposure it depends on your net worth and a bunch of other factors. >> how are you tackling sort of qualitative policy risk

analysis how is that folding out? we mentioned the etf stuff at the intro. is that clarifying as well >> i think it's going to take a long time had to i'm by no means a crypto expert. it could be a risk that equity focused standards have to look at the biggest issue in the equity market is inflation. to the extent that crypto represents some, you know, risk measure for that or proxy for that, i think that could be of interest to equity investors my own personal opinion on inflation and the fed, i know you were talking about through that in the beginning of the show, the fed will not reach the front for a really long time the consensus view they will raise the front end in 2022, but my guess is '24 or later for a number of issues the big issue is inflation and what fed will do about it and i think they will wait much longer. >> 2024. with what is your take on the

markets into 2022 more broadly >> look, i'm bullish on equities because there's four reasons, right. earnings will be higher next year than this year, the economy is pretty good, i think the fed is accommodative and fiscal stimulus rolling in various forms no matter which political party is in charge as long as i think earnings next year are above this year i can remain fairly constructive i'm not saying we're going to get the 20% plus return every year but my framework is you get about a 3% accommodation of dividend and buyback, maybe 3 to 4% organic earnings on top of that, 6 to 8% returns for u.s. equities and looks pretty good when i compare it to almost every other major asset class. i'm pretty constructive. >> well, we love talking to you when you were at morgan stanley and it's nice to have you back at least in this basket. look forward to talking more, adam thanks. >> good to see you as we head to break, we're watching shares of splunk sinking after the company announced the departure of ceo doug merit who is being replaced

on an interim basis by graham smith. splunk also announce something preliminary q3 metrics with revenue above analyst estimates. you can see the shares are down 16% right now. stay with us. ♪ ♪ ♪

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." it's now time for our etf spotlight and we're taking a look at cathie wood's ark innovation etf arkk still negative on the year after doubling in 2020 the top holdings include tesla, teledock and coinbase. arc making moves to sell most of the remaining zillow stake worth around $37 million and zillow down 50% year to date and just since the start of this month. basically over the last two weeks it has sold off something like 37%, david, as it has exited buying and added more attention to its competitors like open door and offer pad

solutions which have continued to stay in that market even as zillow has said its algorithm can't keep pace. >> the strategy when introduced by zillow, they are finding buyers for large groups of homes because there are others out there still pursuing the strategy, not house flipping, pursuing a strategy of renting homes to people as opposed to having them buy them >> still homes to sell on their books. meanwhile we're watching tesla speaking of cathie wood and arc, back to 999 and a market cap that david might soon cross back below a trillion dollars. >> i think it is just below a trillion in the old market cap wars that we kind of watch flirting with that trillion dollar level, but had been as high as i think 1.2, so you are talking about at least a loss of roughly $200 billion in market cap in a short amount of time coming along with, of course, mr. musk's sale of stock

that we have talked about many times. he's selling that stock to pay taxes as a result of a tax liability that is accruing to him based on exercising options that are at $6.24 a share. that's not bad that's not bad a lot of people would love to have $6.24 a share for $990 stock even if it is up only 40% on the year. >> all right as we head to a break, takea look at the top gainers on the s&p. no surprise, dollar tree, an activist play now, up over 14%, the leader we'll tell you, by the way, what is going on there when we come back.

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hour within the last hour, steve bannon turned himself in to the fbi in washington. later today the long-time ally of former president trump will appear in court. he faces two criminal counts for refusing to cooperate with the house committee investigating the january 6th attack on the capitol. this morning democrat beto o'rourke announced he is running for governor of texas. the former democratic presidential candidate narrowly lost a bid in 2018 and tells the associated press not going to be easy to win, but it's possible because people are telling him they're unhappy with greg abbott. in democrat patrick leahy says he's not running for re-election next year. at 81 he is the oldest u.s. senator and says he and his wife decided it's time to pass the torch and come home. and in the uk, prime minister boris johnson says that sunday's taxi bombing in liverpool is a reminder of the need to remain in his words utterly vigilant. the government has raised the

terror level to severe, meaning that an attack is thought to be highly likely. the bomber died in sunday's attack the taxi driver survived you're up to date. back to you. >> thank you, rahel. as we pointed out a few moments ago, shares of dollar tree are surging this morning after activist investor mantle ridge took a large stake in the discount retailer. leslie picker joins us now with more on the story. leslie >> yeah. david i got off the phone with sources close to this one. mantle ridge has taken a multibillion dollar stake in dollar tree. paul at pershing square raised $1.8 billion special vehicle to invest in dollar tree, locked up for five years including leverage in swaps and sec filings reveals mantle ridge's holding is worth nearly 10% of the company, which is about $3 billion as shares surge today. i'm told the focus here is really on family dollar, which

dollar tree acquired back in 2015 according to a person familiar with his thinking he doesn't believe the integration has gone as smoothly as many would have hoped and contributed to under performance relative to its peer dollar general as such, they enlisted a retail executive rick who ran dollar general than engagement. although the firm has not been explicit in its role in past situations, it has been kind of the playbook at csx, hilal has tapped executives well incentivized to advise on operational changes. i'm told they could nominate directors although there's no guarantee he will do that. a spokesman for dollar tree says, quote, the company is always open to listening to input and look forward to engaging with mantle ridge as they do with all of their shareholders and will evaluate for value creation with the best

interest of all shareholders and stake holders in mind. mantle ridge declined to comment for this report. guys >> leslie, i mean the window opens next week. this became public why wouldn't he nominate you have to believe he's got some names i haven't heard much there has been some speculation around halil in general and when you raise money for this, that happens. but the timing is not a coincidence. >> oh, absolutely. we see this playbook time and time again with hedge funds and investors all the time now the question is, given that there is about nine days until that window opens up, will we see some traction next week around the thanksgiving holiday? i think the window opens on the 24th, so that will be the next step here to look forward to of course if you ask investors to lock up their capital for five years, clearly there's a lot of capital at stake here halil has to do something to get the ball rolling, although the mere disclosure sending shares

up 14% today that certainly is a start for the investors who have put their money into that. >> look forward to a lot of 13-s this week. leslie picker. meantime getting some new consumer data today looking ahead to the holiday shopping season courtney reagan has numbers. good morning >> good morning, carl. yeah the first really big forecast for the thanksgiving week shopping stretch which is right around the corner. mastercard spending expects retail sales in store and online will grow 10% over last year, 12.2% compared to thanksgiving week 2019. mastercard senior adviser tells me this forecast does take into account inflation and inventory shortages due to the supply chain congestion black friday sales, just that day isolated, looking to increase upwards of 20% over last year. shoppers are expected to return to stores to snap up doorbusters, reverting to black friday from thanksgiving again

this year with many stores choosing to stay closed on thanksgiving so what's old is new again many retailers closing on thanksgiving so that the pandemic accelerated when no vaccines were yet available and, of course, that's not the case anymore. stores are still kind of reverting back to what they had done before. it seems it's working for both shoppers and for many employees. so e-commerce sales are expected to grow just 7.1% compared to thanksgiving week 2020 when so many shoppers shopped from the safety of their homes. compared to nonpandemic thanksgiving week, 2019, however, e-commerce will be more than 50% higher. luxury is expected to be the strongest category, excluding jewelry. it's forecast to grow by more than 92% followed by apparel growth of 56% and department sales growth of more than 40%. all of this comes after a strong october for retail with consumers getting a jump on that holiday shopping as so many of us have been warning about and

urging customers to do mastercard spending pulse says october retail sales in-store and online across all forms of payment grew 6% over october 2020, nearly 13% compared to october 2019 online sales grew more than 13% in october compared to last year, which is pretty impressive when you think about how much was bought online last year at this time pre-vaccines morgan >> yeah. i'm right there with you like jumped on the holiday shopping already. already seeing all those black friday, early black friday sales. so it will be interesting to see what kind of additional data we get throughout this week as well and courtney reagan, you will be able over it for us. i have a closet full of gifts. >> the backlog of container ships outside the port of california rising to a new record and two-thirds was hauled away by trucks but labor shortages in trucking are not to

blame for logistics bottlenecks. joining us is harper trucking association ceo matt sh rap. great to have you on the show here we've been hearing about a shortage in truck drivers. you're saying that's not the issue here, it's more of an equipment shortage >> that's right. you know, where we see the shortages and the tension issues is over the road here locally we have 14,000 drivers doing business down here daily. the challenge becomes availability of equipment because it's caught up in, you know, storing empty containers we're storing empty containers on top of chassises that can't be used to pull the imports off the dock >> we've been hearing about some of the moves by the biden administration to help try and ease some of these bottlenecks, whether it's port activity, shifting to a 24/7 operation or even finds on some of the lingering cargo containers is that helping at all >> well, i'll have to say the port envoy of the white house has been doing a fantastic job in getting all the stakeholders

around the same table here one challenge we've always seen is really getting the ocean carriers involved in some of these issues and the white house has done a good job of bringing them around the table. we're seeing some movement everybody is very excited about saving christmas, so to speak, so everyone is working hard and kudos to john bacari for doing his work. >> how long from your estimation based on what you're seeing on the ground, shortages of chassis, empty containers sitting there and tying up the chassises this backlog of ships waiting to unload more cargo in the water as well, how long is all of this going to take to actually ease? it seems like there's so many choke points to talk about in this process. >> yeah. there are. and unfortunately, you know, i don't have a crystal ball. i would be doing something different to be honest, but i've heard third quarter next year, 2023 it's hard to say we've got a lot of volume,

unprecedented volume no port complex in the united states has handled this many containers the challenges with the chassises, although there might not be a shortage necessarily but they're being eaten up because we're storing empty containers. >> matt, i watched the "60 minutes" piece last night and you were on it we've covered this issue in a lot more depth but what was interesting everybody is pointing fingers at somebody else you're pointing them at this, the shippers, you know, is there any ability of somebody to actually try to resolve this when you've got everybody blaming everybody else >> right i'll tell you, the blame game no shortage of it down here we try not to level the finger at anyone really, and, you know, we don't necessarily blame the marine terminals we feel they're caught in the middle of all of this between the ocean carriers, retailers, truckers, the port authorities, everybody. they're doing their job as longshore getting the cargo ships unloaded, once there's

space available on docks the supply chain as they call it a system of systems, it is a chain and any chain that gets -- any link that gets stressed within the chain reverberates throughout the entire system there's no one to blame individually necessarily, but there's no shortage of finger pointing as i mentioned. >> yeah. you talk to truckers themselves, and they quickly point to compensation structure and not being paid for time that they are there waiting to load or unload has there been any movement on that payment structure >> well, i'll tell you, it depends on who you ask we have a lot of drivers who are paid for waiting time, folks paid by the hour right now you are in such high demand as a cdl holder you can write your own ticket. some of the folks perhaps thinking that they're getting the lower than what is deserved wage, they can go and look around for the higher wage

that's essentially what lends itself to the trucker shortage is a challenge with retention because people are always seeking out that higher pay. how much is actually changed i think demand has really lent itself to higher salaries or higher wages for drivers in general, but, you know, in the trucking industry, we're always facing one issue or another and the drivers are the most critical link in the entire process. our companies know that we need to take care of these folks in order to have them be motivated for continuing work and doing the good stuff that they're doing every single kay >> do we know in terms of the cargo that's actually stuck at the ports right now, as this bottleneck situation continues to play out, do we know what's getting prioritized versus what's getting stranded? >> well, stuff that's showing up is moving pretty quick there's other cargo that has been on dock for over 30 days in some instances it depends on the type of commodity it is and how

prioritized over the other cargo it has stuff is moving right now. i can assure you that there is cargo moving we see it from the truck cues, we siee it from the ships comin in, coming off and going into berth as well. stuff is moving. whether or not it's prioritized is up to the ocean liners and some of the retail groups on the other. nobody is wanting their cargo sitting in a big giant stack of containers down at the harbor. they want their warehouses filled, the shelves filled especially with the holidays coming up right now as you were alluding to earlier. >> matt, thanks for joining us we appreciate your insight. >> thank you for having me. still to come this morning, elon musk taunting senator bernie sanders over twitter on taxes. we've got some details on that get a quick check on where we stand on the markets pretty steady. dow has not moarnd aved ou whole lot, up 100 and we're just around 4690, just south of it on the s&p. back in a moment.

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yeah. he comes in to recharge, get software updates. you know. let's go! bernie sanders and elon musk making headlines over the weekend. senator sanders tweeting, quote, we must demand the extremely wealthy pay their fair share, to which musk replied i keep forgetting you're still alive. want me to sell more stock just say the word. another exchange musk had with ron wyden. musk is getting increasingly antagonistic on twitter. >> he doesn't like writing those checks if you have a $15 billion tax bill that's actually a high class problem as we say.

clearly the games are enormous and they are for him, the wealthiest man, we may have to check our math his tesla shares are down about 4%. >> yeah. >> but he's not happy about tax policy in gentle i guess and the idea that he does have these enormous gains on these options we've talked a lot about that he has to exercise by august of next year before they expire. >> he has made comments in recent months about the fact that he thinks there's been misreporting and misunderstanding around tax bills and what someone like himself pays in those. it's worth noting to your point with tesla shares down, he sold another $7 billion worth of stock last week. we'll see if those regulatory filings continue to come out from him as well for a man who i think back to our interview with governor abbott of texas not that long ago in which he cited musk came out on twitter in response to that interview and said that he would prefer to stay out o

politics it does seem like he's got more political on twitter as of late. the comment about president biden after the spacex inspiration 4 mission as well. >> some speculated maybe he's cranky because lucid got motor trend car of the year as of last night. could be part of it. >> or watches rivian up 8.6%. >> $140 a share. >> $120 billion rivian value i don't know if that's upsetting him. he's also tweeted about that, but that was a reasonable tweet just saying hey, give them time, see if they can generate -- >> a tenth of tesla. way in the rearview mirror on competition. still come this morning jim cramer will join us on tech check from our sanrais fncco bureau and tom lee with the crypto currency off to a good start to the week, begins at the top of the hour.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm seema moody. stocks are mixed with the dow up 110, utilities among the leaders and materials are lagging, but we wanted to get a check on some of the infrastructure plays ahead of president biden's signing the bipartisan deal in law later today. industrial names like john deere, we will see union workers vote this wednesday on its

latest offer and united rentals have outperformed the s&p 500 over the past month up around 8 to 11% the same goes for names in the material sector like bolton and marietta, both of those plays off 15% in the pt urasfo weeks not to mention a number of esd

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." president biden and chinese president xi is scheduled to meat later tonight more on what to expect hi, eunice. >> investors need to know a few key points and taiwan a top priority the papers running editorials pretty much all day arguing that china sees taiwan as the, quote, ultimate red line and they say that president xi will be warning president biden, quote, to step back from any perceived support of an independent taiwan which is, as you all know, is an island that china believes is a breakaway province and that the u.s. upholding the one china

policy would, quote, turn up the brightness on future ties. now, on the american side, a senior administration official has already said that president biden would reaffirm the u.s.'s long standing one china policy nothing is likely to be resolved at the discussions but the taiwan issue has been a nonfinancial tail risk for investors. so, the fact that the two sides are coming together and at least airing some grievances could help bring down some of those tensions now, economic issues are also going to be taking a back seat senior administrator official said subsidies and trade would come up but supply chain problems and tariffs wouldn't be on the u.s.'s agenda now, beijing is indicating, as well, it isn't as focused on the tariffs this time. tonight a communist party paper is arguing that the u.s. would be the one to want to lift the tariffs since from the chinese

argument these tariffs are harming american businesses, not so much china and add to the u.s.'s inflation concerns. both sides are also downplaying any deliveerables. so, whether or not you see this is as a good or bad thing as an investor, i thinkreally depend on whether you're a half glass full or a glass half empty kind of person. if you're a glass half full person potentially see that there might not be any new initiatives that would really be a tremendously disruptive to the economic relationship, but if you're glass half empty it could also indicate that we won't really be seeing a whole lot of relief in terms of tariffs or sanctions. guys >> eunice, thank you for more on tonight's summit or so-called summit and the potential impact on let's callid by ben ben, what are you looking for and/or expecting from this

virtual summit that could influence your investments >> the ability is the name of the game here and structure. so, the call really needs to lay a set of more predictable ground rules for what is clearly strategic, competitive dynamic and just as national security adviser jake sullivan said earlier this week, you know, critical to establishing that structure is the placement of guard rails to reduce these kind of risks of binary events like taiwan from jeopardizing not just obviously the economic and political relationship, but global stability i think what we're looking for is predictability. what both chinese and american businesses is more clear framework for which they are able to operate independently of the political dynamics in this relationship >> yeah.

now much of the pressure on chinese stocks certainly seem to be a result of so much of the regulatory changes that have taken place over the last year as the government tries to promote common prosperity. are we at the tail end of those kinds of changes >> i don't think there's necessarily ever going to be an end date to regulatory intervention when it involves item like prosperity and providing for a kind of harmonious natural structure here and certainly some of the latent regulatory changes needed to catch china up to a lot of the type of regulation that occurs in the west antitrust or antimonopoly regulation. i'm certainly not calling an end to it, but i do think that those frameworks, again, are being established. the frameworks for chinese companies go public in the united states and types of privacy or data that they will have to show to domestic regulators here before they go public abroad and likewise again

that more predictable maetrics that fall regulatory intervention and that is giving people more confidence and structure. >> ben, you keep using the word predictability and i want to hone in on that a little bit because, you know, we're having this conversation on the same day that china is launching the beijing stock exchange, for example, as well it doesn't sound like there is necessarily going to be build bridging at this summit tonight. is the way to think about this that the decoupling continues but at least there are guard rails that policy potentially gn place? >> guard rails, red lines, channels for communication i think one of the things that the previous administration lacked with the chinese was constant dialogue on a day-to-day basis across all different levels of seniority. what we want at least as a framework for cooperation is we saw inklings of that coming out of the climate event just a couple days ago and the joint

initiative between the u.s. and chinese officials where we're, again, looking for commonalities and common threats that we can approach jointly and the challenge for investors like ourselves is just not having a predictable framework for our companies that are chinese listed and chinese domicile not bringing companies here to operate under and those are, obviously, more domestic driven rather than some coming out of this freighamework. >> pressure being brought to bear on allocaturs like yourself, you are allocating capital to industries in china that will ultimately compete on a national security basis the u.s. how do you respond >> so, i think it's actually, you know, largely a situation today that was driven by, you know, driven by a lot of the activities of the u.s. administration last time around. so, what accelerated this decoupling, what accelerated

china of domestic supply chains, of domestically built core technologies was largely the actions cutting off their access from key inputs to the united states we're seeing it so i think it's something that was driven one way. >> all right i know it's perhaps a longer answer we'll get you back soon, as well, to discuss it again. ben, thank you ben harper that will do it for us on "squawk on the street. "techcheck" starts now > good monday morning. welcome to "techcheck. i'm carl quintanilla today musks taunts bernie sanders named motor trend car of the year we'll break what ev stocks stand to benefit most from the signing of