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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 16, 2021 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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>> we missed mentions today it having pulling back of late. >> it had a bit of a bounce. we have the ceo selling handover fist maybe he's done, maybe not there is a question right there. the aggregate market value of evs is getting to be a phenomenal number. >> we are out of time. thanks for watching. "fast money" picks up now. >> live from the nasdaq market site, i'm brian. good to have you with us karen finerman, steve grasso, mike kohn and pete >> the next level.
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key levels you need to watch plus buckle up, rivian is taking investors on a ride of a lifetime that stock was up 15% today. half of the traders tonight own the stock. locking in profit. we are drilling down on the energy trade of course we are goldman sachs is out with a list of stop picks of the oil patch we will bring you some of those. there is a lot more to do in the next hour. let us begin with the countdown to christmas 38 days left to get all of your holiday shopping done. while there may be plenty of reasons to be worried about the consumer from rising inflation to whether that favorite toy will be on the shelf, judging by the earnings report, all hope may not be lost. walmart beating expectations on
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the top and bottom line. home depot also exceeded expectation. sales raised more than 6% and average rising ticket is 13% everyone is either buying home or fixing up the one they live in should we expect more cheer for investors over the holidays or has the inflation story not yet hit. karen? start with you what do you think? >> i think there is more to come as the retail numbers were strong that was great the ticket for home depot, maybe walmart as well. one thing i thought was bullish was capacity utilization
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it just barely surpassed the peak in february of 2020 we are all of the way back now i think that was supply constraint hopefully that's improving i think that for a little while we have a little bit of runway before we hear something from the fed. i am always long but i'm optimistic as well >> i want to go back to karen for one second and then around the horn karen, these numbers were undeniably good but from the third quarter, people buying stuff in july, august and september. those things are put on the shelf six months ago, paid for six months ago by the vendors more likely, so the inflation hasn't hit the retailers yet are you worried about the first or second quarter of next year
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>> if you are chipotle and there is a little bit of lag going forward. it is more than what your cost went up. if you are somebody like a kroger, that will be harder. it will be a tale of two retailers. i think we will start to see that i think for right now the consumer is flush with cash and the reopen trade is there and they want to be out there spending but what happens when they burn through the cheaper inventory. if you have a good brand, you will be fine >> pete, as you know, your local target doing channel checks, you
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are going to hear strong numbers. but what about next year what are you looking for for target home depot gets all of the love, but any other names you are keeping your eye on? >> i thinkyou can have a bit o a read through that's why i think we were seeing the reaction we were seeing when you look at the home depot numbers, they are extraordinary. that stood out for me as the di difference between what home depot was doing. they didn't pass it along. didn't have the pricing power. who has the best opportunity
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i think target does have that because of the fact it is not exclusively really going into the direction of being a grocer which is 50% of what you are looking at for walmart that's what makes it so different for walmart. because of razor thin margins you have 50% but for the rest of the store it's 20% i think t.j. maxx and some of the rest are in a position where they should be able to execute and win. i think we are in for big numbers. you look in october and they are up 1.7% from september and beating the estimates. i think that speaks a lot about what people are willing to do and how they are willing to spread the money around. >> steve grasso, the headline
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was that retailis 21% higher than pre-covid february was a slow month because everybody spends their money for the holidays these numbers are so huge you wonder how long can these extraordinarily good times for retailers and consumers last >> everyone is flush with cash if you are looking to buy gifts for loved ones, friends, you started shopping months ago because the supply chain woes was known months ago but as you get closer to the holidays, you are going to still buy. and the reason is the supply chain is probably going to be easy we have heard that from a host of other companies, that it's not getting dramatically better, but not getting any worse. so what does the consumer do
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you continue to spend money going into christmas i think to karen's point you have a last push of these deep pockets being spent in the retail world to pete's point, pricing power i'm long capri holdings. last night when courtney hosted, she brought up tapestry. both of those stocks have done better than other names. but macy's is up 187%. that makes everything else pale. but i don't think you should b a buyer of macys you should look at capri, tapestry target looks like a double top, but looks like it will break down >> capri, parent company michael
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kors and others. are there any retailers that you are watching, you think they are still undervalued, overvalued? >> i think a lot of names are probably fairly valued looking back, we did see that headline ticket level rise considerably they did say on the conference call, a portion of that increase was a result of pricing increases. they don't break that out. that might also be one of the reasons that karen is interested in capacity utilization. we are trying to figure out when we see these headline revenue figures and see margins keeping up they also contributed the slight depression to home depot as
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product. lowe's is a different animal than home depot. their consumer mix is different. home depot caters more strongly to professional customers. in the past we are talking about 40% of their sales coming from professionals. i think there is a lot of pentup demand in terms of cost of goods on the shelves, if we arelooking at something like home depot or lowe's their costs have decreased. l lumber prices increased crazily, but they have come in. you go back to 2019 and compare prices of lumber, and back to 2018 which was a high paced
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quarter, going back for a couple of decades these are still high prices and i am not confident that inflation will not hamper retail >> let let's talk about that wi our next guest i hope my point about retailers and their timelines made some sense. as you know better than anybody out there, if i bought something at sachs in april or august, so much was priced out before inflation hit, third quarter may not be that great of a representation of cost are you worried about what we are seeing now hitting margins and pricing three and six months from now >> good to hear from you, brian. i feel good about the consumer
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shopping, growth is in the double digit range versus two years ago. we are seeing a healthy holiday season the forecast is for 7.4% for the holiday season, thanksgiving week at 10%. the numbers were compelling. the question we are raising is a longer term one. the goods that are being bought today were shopped earlier son z consumers are paying a higher price because you have 5 to 10 percentage points less than a year ago if you have more promotions going, the net effect wouldn't be any different it's the amount of promotion and net retail price the consumer is getting. i think right now it is a bit of goldilocks for the retailers
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as karen said, the brands with pricing power and able to pass on the cost are getting better margins. you are seeing some of the best i have seen in a long time you have good margin capability for a long time. they will continue to have supply chain cost increases. the example he used for capri or tapestry and others, and consumers are willing to pay a price. they have money in their pocket, whether at the low end, government support, wages or at the high end, stock market gains. i feel good for the near term. i think next year you will have government support overlap and head winds, but the next six weeks i feel very good about the holiday season
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>> steve, this is karen. thanks for being on. another headwind is millennials are the biggest buying group they used to do experiences and services rather than buying things, but that wasn't as relevant during the pandemic do you see them shifting the dollars away from things and back to services >> that's an interesting question they were focusing on the stay at home activity if they were buying apparel it was probably sweat pants apparent growing 50% these are remarkable numbers in the reopening, but what you are finding is those categories that are growing -- using the numbers coming out of the pandemic, the
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numbers are continuing to hold up so it is not a falloff of one versus the other it is one and the other. look at the e-commerce group you are not seeing it go down. you went from 12% of commerce to 18% of commerce, but it's still growing 7 or 8 percent it's not either-or, it's either-and >> any stock killing it and not getting the love they deserve? >> i don't want to play favorites. i think the guys on omni channel are doing really well. >> i think we may be able to figure some of those names out let's go around the horn and trade this steve, i heard you talk about capri holdings
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did anything anyone said change your mind? >> a little bit. it's not changing my mind, but reinforcing the fact he thinks the lead off thenext couple weeks -- i think he said six weeks he feels pretty good about it everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop if we keep passing this buck further -- but it's interesting. when you did his intro, it makes me think about mastercard and visa and they are struggling to stay positive on the performance. when you look at american express, it's up it's having an impact on these debit names versus credit names like with a name like american express. with travel coming back and corporate travel and maybe people are taking trips to
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capri. >> maybe you can buy a capri, the 1970 sports car from mercury. just be careful with the buy now, pay later because those $10 per month add up or you can use the qr code on the side of the screen things are heating up in the courtroom battle julia is here with an update on that case which has been filled with a lot of bad feelings shall we say >> the battle between tinder co-founder, that battle continues. it is alleged that match group
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undervalued tinder back in 2017. at issue is a 2017 valuation, not 2015 as i said earlier the plafs a-- plaintiffs are asking for $2 billion in damages. rad said he gave the incorrect information to the bankers, and some were as high as $11.5 billion in 2016, much higher than the 3 billion assigned the following year barry tried to discredit rad's information. tomorrow rad returns to the stand and the trial continues. >> thank you very much coming up, peloton shares having a rare day higher after watching the wheels come off recently are things finally getting better what will be the ultimate stay at home stock?
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the rivian run the stock is booming up every single day the market cap is bigger than gm or forward without delivering hardly any cars. what do you do if you own it next
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>> peloton having a day. investors who bought back during the day could be down nearly $100 a share they are raising capital, and that after the company said they didn't need to do that karen, your thoughts on the news, company, the stock >> given they said that so recently, what happened in the interim? did they start to be concerned about their situation? i don't know if people knew the stock was going to be offered. it seemed like yesterday it started to trade down. maybe they had an innkling this
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was coming and that cleared the air. i wouldn't be happy if i was a shareholder. they could have raised money so many other times at higher prices what went wrong. i believe 46 was the low, almost $100 off the high for the year better to have the cash than not even if you are mildly embarrassed. >> fair enough i will pay you 20 bucks for a hamburger today. if you are raising capital, what does it say to your investors, mike >> it's interesting. what we saw the stock do today is something we have seen in a couple other instances you have seen a witness and then they announce they are going to
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do something and then they see the market react it looks like investors were concerned going into the news and at least are relieved. this is a stock i don't have much interesting in owning if we are having a reopening trade, it seems less likely the benefit will go, even if it's more in terms of service providing rather than sale, but to me this is one i wouldn't touch. >> unfortunately, the stock has wiped out 18 months of gains back to prices not seen since mid may of 2020. apparently bikes are out and cars are in. rivian rallying for the fisth straight day it has never seen a down day
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steve, you got in on this name early on maybe doubling your money. what do you make of rivian >> you want to have reality to lock in profits. i feel as if pete probably feels the same way we were both on air the day of the ipo. when i see the backstop of ford owning 13%, you could argue whether or not they stay there but amazon is going to be in there and amazon will always be a source of funds. not to say this is a short bet i think the stock will come back in
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i am about 60 or 65% back in on position i have been waiting for a pullback i have not sold a share. but anybody who says the stock is overvalued, how many times have we said that with tesla >> it's hard to compare with tesla. they started out small this segment not brought to you by this water. i just happen to enjoy it. now it is what it is rivian is getting the tesla put or whatever you want to call it. lucid was called car of the year by motortrend. they couldn't lust over it enough rivian is close to gm and ford
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combined and have delivered zero cars or five >> but people are looking more towards the future, like they were with tesla. there was always a debate whether tesla had enough financing. a lot of people were concerned about that and they managed to navigate through that for a long time but we talked about this a couple of times. amazon with 20% and they are also the ones who are going to continue to order. i think they are going to continue to order and have those for delivery that built-in aspect of it right now is really important. if i were ford -- i hear a lot of other commentary, but i don't know why they would be in any kind of a hurry to get rid of shares at some point we will see a pullback steve may be looking to add more on that. but i can't see why ford would
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want to exit i think they would want to hold on and see what kind of ride they will be able to get with this vehicle and company along with what we have seen already i think the amazon back stop is huge against the shares that i own i am probably going to start selling actions that are way out of the money and collect premium to give my price a lower end i got into the stock >> good action, but save it for "options action. $4.68 a gallon is the price of gas in california. might push a lot of people to electric cars. coming up -- >> bitcoin
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where these coins are headed next plus, time for energy. goldman laying out their top picks. which name should you fill up on i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. firefighter maggie gronewald knows how to handle dry weather... ...and dry, cracked skin. new gold bond advanced healing ointment. restore healthy skin, with no sticky feeling. gold bond. champion your skin.
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that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. welcome back bad news end of the world bitcoin fell now the chart master says bitcoin and even gold are critical >> before we get to the charts,
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this move, while dramatic, is not dramatic crypto. when we look at the charts we will see we are at a critical juncture from here it will be important -- let's start with bitcoin. this is a clear setup. bitcoin has bounced off the trend line repeatedly to the penny. the all-time highs at 65,000 there are false breakouts in market what is important in here is even that weakness, we hold. it's down some 17% while that's a lot for individual stock, my hunch is it will hold the trend line and look at ethereum
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it's the same pattern. you will have a good uptrend where it sells off and bounces to the penny and then attempts to exceed a prior high often these are double tops and that is to be determined ultimately it leads to a bigger turnup finally, gold, which obviously is on a week over week basis, especially with a strong dollar, gold has broken above the down trend line you can call it a wedge or triangle it represents an equilibrium of the three day-to-day, of the three days ahead, i think gold
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is your winner. >> gold is the winner. carter, thank you very much. karen, what do you make of the pullback in crypto and what do you make of carter saying that gold may be a better bet than crypto >> i believe that could be the case i, on the other hand, am long crypto it is very volatile. you have to believe in part of the up fundamental things about institution, and fear of digital currencies, but that's the way the world is headed. having said that, this is the riskiest thing i own i have a small portion of portfolio in it. it seems to me it hasn't failed.
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i don't get it >> it seems like grasso, you either get gold, and love gold or you ignore it altogether. chime in on crypto chime in on whatever you want, steve. >> if gold is going to be the winner, then you want to play the miners leverage is buying the miners. the move, up or down, is three to one in beta when you buy a gdx for the miners as far as bitcoin, i think one day we will be looking at $250,000 a coin on bitcoin, but i think tom lee's assessment of $100,000 is probably within the grasp of reality he has it by year end. even if he's wrong, no one will hold him to it if it is the
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first or second quarter of 2022. but i don't know if you are in that mindset in a crypto, if you are really going to go back to the gold standard, if you will. >> steve, thank you very much. goldman with red-hot trades. we are going to lay them out for you. plus chips galore. we gear up for nvidia earnings tomorrow we will into that when we come back yep. i'm the all-in-one management software built for small business. high thryv! help me with scheduling? sure thing. up top. high thryv! payments? high thryv! promotions? high thryv! email marketing? almost there, hold on. wait for it. high thryv! manage my customer list? can do. will do. high thryv! post on social media? hash-tag high thryv my friend! get a free demo at thryv.com.
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earn about covid-19, the more questions we have. the biggest question now, what's next? what will covid bring in six months, a year? if you're feeling anxious about the future, you're not alone.
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calhope offers free covid-19 emotional support. call 833-317-4673, or live chat at calhope.org today. welcome back we have a news alert out of washington, d.c. let's get the latest >> brian, the treasury department is out with a new projection of when we will hit the debt limit and that is now december 15 instead of december 3, nearly two weeks later.
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secretary of treasury janet yellen sent this to congress moments ago. this is important because the deadline no longer coincides with funding the government which runs out of money december 3 as well. this could give lawmakers more breathing room particularly since there has been zero compromise treasury projecting they have until december 15 before they reach that debt limit. >> thank you appreciate it. this topsy-turvy world continues to confound and amaze. bank of america reports that traditional funds posts their biggest in-flows ever. oil and gas rose to nearly
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decade highs for some, it may not be done goldman sachs out with a couple names they think can go higher names like phillips 66,baker hughes, pioneer, and service companies as well, like halliburton. many of these names have nearly doubled. are you a buyer or holder of any of these companies >> i am. i was overloaded for too long probably in thee energy patch. it started about a year ago. we continue to see that rolling, rolling, rolling although it has slowed down, it's interesting we are talking about this because energy in the options world has absolutely slowed down, almost to a trickle
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from where it was. i still have plenty of exposure. i have marathon oil, i have those with miners. but i own chevron as a stock and exxon as option. we talk about free cash flow and demand coming back all of those reasons are why i still want to hold on to some of these, but i have had to trim back some of them because i have gotten more into ev space and less into energy >> it's funds. all of the focus of rivian and tesla and evs, gas dinosaur performing well. >> i am an owner of halliburton and have owned it for quite sometime we saw abysmal price action last
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year probably a five bagger off the dead lows of last year, but i think it's important when you look at a name like this, to remember it is trading about half the enterprise value the company did at its peak. that should stimulate companies like slchlumberger and halliburton. you hope you have a political climate that will support that type of activity not sure we do i continue to own halliburton. i think schlumberger i would as well >> these companies say we are going to drill more and investors hit them on the head and put them back do twnhe mole hole tomorrow nvidia and others how they are playing the name.
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♪♪ we see companies protecting the bottom line by putting people first. we see a bright future, still hungry for the ingenuity of those ready for the next challenge. today, we are translating decades of experience into strategies for the road ahead. we are morgan stanley. (judith) in this market, you'll find fisher investments is different than other money managers. into strategies for the road ahead. (other money manager) different how? don't you just ride the wave? (judith) no - we actively manage client portfolios based on our forward-looking views of the market. (other money manager) but you still sell investments that generate high commissions, right? (judith) no, we don't sell commission products. we're a fiduciary, obligated to act in our client's best interest. (other money manager) so when do you make more money? only when your clients make more money? (judith) yep, we do better when our clients do better. at fisher investments we're clearly different.
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welcome back to "fast money. are you ready for a new group of
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millionaires college athletes are now allowed to have sponsorship deals. so soon there will be 18-year-olds heading back to the dorm room with a couple hundred thousands. they will probably need tomorrow financial help college athletes like university of south carolina or boston are able to profit from their name, image and likeness it's a new way for these students to earn income. >> i think it's really great that we can make something off it >> she hired an agent to negotiate her deal, including with bojangles >> i put on instagram my story.
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>> and an adjunct professor said it's time for college athletes to create a financial game plan. >> i need those college athletes who are about to make those checks who understand how the money works and put a budget in place so you don't get caught without the right amount of money to play the tax bill this tiktok influencer grabbed the attention of taco bell he said it was a game changer. >> this is the first couple of months i have been able to make money in my whole life he he. >> he said he is working with a money manager and his dad. >> i have been careful about my
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brand. i do feel like ceo >> this is a wave of college athletes who have a greater way to finance fame. >> i would have done the same thing. these kids trying to grab the brass ring now because it could get more diluted with more athletes >> the students were so thoughtful about what they need to do to their brand term. they want to have a personal brand that lasts they are seeking advice from people who know more than they do they are trying to make savvy decisions and invest some of that money, too. >> they could listen to you. sharon, thank you very much.
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>> that deed three prepaid scholarship never paid up. which guys, one stock or one atf. you have a million dollar check, from under armour or whatever thing. what do you want to do >> you want to diversify, spread it out buy where you think the growthiest stocks are. they will be microsoft, amazon, tesla, nvidia. these are the names you want to buy for growth if you go back 15 or 20 years, the performance is outsized. >> karen >> similar to steve.
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they have so much risk that one thing performance or physical health you have to diversify. i would go buy some spiders. >> mike? >> i would go with ivv which is another s&p variant, but has low fees, only 3 basis points. i like what karen is doing and a man who played d-1 sports, sponsored by vidal sasoon back in the day >> i am such a huge fan of warren buffett you want to be in what you know. if you know apple and bank of america and you know these various different names that are the biggest components of what are in there, that's where
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warren buffett is strong >> that might need more than three tacos in a deal, but well diversified company. thank you all very much for playing. coming up, we are counting down to nvidia earnings
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to build a future of unlimited possibilities. welcome back we are keeping an eye on nvidia. >> the options market is implying a move of about $17.50 higher or lower, about 5.8% of the stock price. that's more than it has averaged over comparable periods of time. the last quarter it did move 8%. we saw calls outpacing puts.
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we saw almost 17,000 of those trading for a little over $9 per contract betting the stock is going to end the week higher. it seems like people are using options given that the stock is not that far off its all time high >> for more "options action," tune in to the full show every friday at 5:30 p.m ing isn't jus. it's your future. so you don't lose sight of the big picture, even when you're focused on what's happening right now. and thinkorswim trading™ is right there with you. to help you become a smarter investor. with an innovative trading platform full of customizable tools. dedicated trade desk pros and a passionate trader community sharing strategies right on the platform. because we take trading as seriously as you do. thinkorswim trading™ from td ameritrade.
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time for your final trade. let's go around the horn steve grasso >> apple they shocked a lot of investors. i am looking for new highs, a breakout >> karen >> if you go home long, same as on the close, target i think the mix will be better for target >> pete? >> i love that trade with
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target i am going to give you merck i love the things they are doing. i think they have more to the upside >> mike? >> even with rivian, ford will get a little more volatile, but it's my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now ♪ ♪ hey, i'm cramer. welcome to a special west coast edition of "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to help you make some money my job is not just to entertain but to teach so call me at 1-800-

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