>> thank you you too. >> have a happy holiday. through the session, the dow is a bit weaker. the nasdaq indicated down by about 108 right now. andrew, have a great holiday >> have a great happy things giving i will see you back on friday. bye. good wednesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber and mike san toldi cramer has the morning offer we got a boatload of data.

. and jamie dimon's mea culpa. what has the ceo issues apologies? probably the biggest dynamic, once again, is the impact of rising yields on technology. and it's sort of been the main theme of the week. >> it has been the theme no down that's the programmed reflex response. however, i do always like to point out -- and yes, you did see a tick higher in yields, there's no doubt in the intraday action, but since august 4th was the low in yields for the

summer, 17 basis points on the two year, up to 61 on the two-year after 166 on the ten-year, and the tech sector is up 8%. now, it's underperformed, right? because you have never and banks doing twice as well. the point being it's not a long-term story. it's about where the marginal dollar is going on a given day i do think that's been the story. >> sort of points to the overall theme that in a rising rate environment over the past 30 years, the s&p has declined only twice. usually it's been for the right reasons. you know, there are scares along the way, that the fed will be too soon or behind the curve it's pretty typical of this environment. you know, interestingly, the way the market is kind of rushed to a mid/later cycle point, you

know, a year and a half after we hit the bottom, i mean, that's unusual because of the stimulus. >> as we come towards the end of the year it is interesting in the sense i'm not sure what's going on day to day, but certainly some of these high-growth, high-multiple names in tech, software as a service, for example, are getting punished if they're even slightly off in earnings hedge funds have underperformed yet again this year, perhaps they're trying to make up for it by chasing alpha here in some of these names and actually paying for it as a result and piling out. you know, i am starting to hear a lack of liquidity in certain names, which is kind of surprising, bus reminiscent of parts of 2018. >> the overall s&p so far has stalled out at the 28%-plus

period but i do think there's an element there, there was a chase into high beta stuff, trying to make things up there's always a push/pull between, do i mark it in, let it ride plus a ton of supply, if you are wanting to buy the fast-moves news stuff that's not in your index, the ipo calendars has been shoving stuff at you. >> incredible. >> the stuff that's been around for a couple years is no longer the new things you want to grab. that's what the twilios and plunks and all those companies that at the thiol -- >> and we'll keep a couple on -- more today, but it's going to be down sharply even autodesk also after earnings, we're seeing a similar response >> so this trend is continues right now. >> yeah. look, there's no doubt it's a

choppy environment, you know, and the close stocks, to be fair, they have been down since that date in august, i mentioned, where yields were at their low. so that's where the attrition has happened as we talk about the r-complex, right? that's kip of the way it's gone. it's been a huge paypack period for a strong period of performance. cathie wood was on squawk earlier, talked about crypto, talk about the impact of zoom on legacy telecom, but also her over-averaging call on deflation. take a listen. >> we think inflation, we're moving into a deflationary environment. this inflation call is a very important call, and we've been watching inventories, and i think this is the beginning of the cyclical correction that we

will see in inventory and commodities. we're seeing iron ore more than 50%. but many people are still focused on oil which, because of the supply issues more than demand issues, has been very strong against or expectations, but there are prices cracking out there and we think will be more broad-based during the next three to six months. >> she points out this is a key call for her, because in this environment right now, arc is underperforming the s&p at a pace that it's really only done a couple times on a monthly base. >> it's the premise of her philosophy, we're in this deflation flare/innovation boom, she's repeated this all the time she also did say that oil has gone up against their

expectations, so it's not as if she catches every wiggle or seeing what's going on yes, the fund has had a tough, tough year >> after taking enormous amounts of amounts that's the way it typically goes they talk about a five-year kind of performance window they look towards. it's up like 400% or something it's outperformed the nasdaq by 50 percentage points all of that outperformance and more happened from march of 2020 to february of 2021. so it was 11 months out of that five years that more than gave them that outperform >> although to her credit, they talked about the prospect of tesla in a way we would say,

whoa, and she turned out to be correct. >> she's recycling the profits from tesla, as she continue to say trim back that position. stays high. >> it's a point i've made a number of times, not that it will be the case here, but oftentimes we have seen people with incredible track records early on who over the course of their career, lose more money than they take >> whether it's after the one trade, a john paulson, or even julian robertson, they have a difficult time. >> and what happened to the janus funds in the late '90s after that, it was exactly the

wrong one. i'm not sure that the average arc ark investor is under water. as for zoom, she did point out she was impressed that they managed to post any positive comps at all but she talked about its impact on the so-called recall and replace cycle. take a listen to that one. >> many people think of zoom simply as a video chat service it is not. it's becoming a unified communication system the old ones would be among them they're going to be ripped out what we would be doing is shorting stocks in the big benchmarks when we get into a risk-off situation, portfolio manager and

analysts generally run back to those stock exchange, get closer for the benchmarks great opportunity for us, as we have experienced during the last few days to pick up on those stocks it's simply a risk-off move to get closer, and we think the benchmarks are where the big risks are longer term. >> that second bite is referring to what she called a long/short model they're testing in-house just your shorts are amplifying the principles behind your longs. it's interesting one of the ideas behind running short exposures at all, it allows you to be more aggress everybody on your favorite longs, if in fact you mitigate

some of the market risk on the other side it doesn't seem like that's the way it's going to go here. if you're implicitly short and following blue chips against the riskier stuff, as she said, you get whipsawed. this is intended to be short the ark portfolio, and it's up like 13% in two weeks. meanwhile, it's going to be a tough morning for a pair of retailers. nordstrom and gap tumbling, supply chains once again a major impact this is what the ceo of gap told cramer last night on "mad money." >> we entered the quarter with really strong demand across the company, as you know, and we were dealt with a blow of unexpected constraint from our -- top sourcing country of vietnam. it's true the bulk of the issues were supply chain related, about

half a billion top line, and about half a billion of transitory air costs that we're incurring, but we believe the right thing to do is compete in the holiday season, have the right stock and that's what we're doing. >> we've talked a lot about vietnam and how important it is to apparel in america. nike meanwhile, with reports they're cancelling store orders, they're going to open down three. >> we've been watching vietnam closely. there have been the closures as a result of covid. nordstrom and gap both reflecting many of the concerns that self-ors had going into this quarter that were not, frankly seen when it came to certainly the biggest of retailers, but even macy's somewhat surprisingly. there was a sense perhaps they can withstarred some of these pressures. nordstrom citing labor issues, they also have a lack of

inventory for the nordstrom rack, which is the off-price component, but they have name brands if you don't have enough name brands in the store, that hurt them there was a downgrade this morning as well from jeffries moving nordstrom to a hold just talking about all the different things they're trying to execute here, because, of course, they are trying to shift to a hybrid 50-50, so half and half essentially in store versus on the internet, and they're just questioning their ability to execute them. as you said, a lot of it comes back to vietnam and the ability to produce from that country. >> and just an incredible lack of patience for these retail misses best buy yesterday, it's kind of like, when are you ever going to have this much of a head of steam in terms of consumer spending power, you need to

close, and the stocks were cheap at the lows, then they ran a bit. also, december is not that strong typically for retail stocks so they get their wins before that you look at a gap and say they're always good at make free cash flow is okay, but it's difficult to say, what are you waiting for, you know? which is, by the way, iron in, in the sense, all we want to see is if they have enough kniffin to sell. now they do, and now they're getting punished, because maybe it's not enough. >> i went into the nordstrom in midtown, and it's a nice star. >> they used to have the piano players. >> i was looking for gifts i wasn't in the women's shoes department for myself. they do a bar down there, i

notice. >> jim would be impressed. >> i went in and out fast. take a look at futures we're getting a daily on on the san francisco fed, arguing for a taper. pretty dove iish. more "squawk on the street" from the nyse, ahead.

well, there is lots of pent-up travel demand as mill

yonts are set to fly over the holiday. phil lebeau has what this could all mean for the airlines in the fourth quarter phil >> reporter: certainly good news, david. this is a strong start to the thanksgiving travel. we could see the level of passengers getting close to eclipsing what we saw in 2019. the fourth quarter is a mixed bag, strong bookings, higher ticket fares the flip side? you see it right here. jet fuel up 70% compared to a year ago that's the cost that's impacting airlines higher cost per average seat mile, so when you look at the index, look, the last month has been a brutal one for the airlines stock index, primarily because of the resurgence of covid cases in europe. on the flip side, when you look at the domestics, meh, people

are looking at it saying, okay, if you're not going to get the profitability in the fourth quarter, this is as good as it gets for a while we do want to show you one chart, alaska airlines alaska is one of the few carriers where the consensus right now is for them to have a profitable fourth quarter. nonetheless, like the rest of the group, the momentum is not in their favor right now despite the fact this would be a solid thanks giving, and fingers crossed, a solid christmas, depending on the weather and covid. it's better than it has been, but probably not back to profitability just yet >> recent history here, some of the scheduling screwups, for lack of a better term, you know -- >> reporter: yes >> -- do we feel they have sort

of dealt with that >> reporter: i like that technical term, david. they got too aggressive. we think, southwest, american, spirit really got dinged when they had those issues. they have learned from that. they're not as aggressive in the scheduling they have taken steps to ensure they have staffing to cover all of their flights having said that, if we get a freak storm that pops up, let's say, three weeks from now, right before christmas, all bets are off, because it's still a tightly staffed schedule for a number of the carriers relative where they were, yeah, they've gotten the message and they are much better prepared than they were, let's say in july or august. >> phil, giving all of the capacity constraints, even the rise in fuel that some have

argued will accelerate the pace of retirement, are you hearing carriers talk more about orders and what it might mean for, say, boeing >> yes and they all realize they have to have more fuel-efficient aircraft, five, six, seven years from now they really need to move in that direction. there's no reversing that trend, and we'll increasingly see in here, where the airlines will be required to bring down their emissions. you hear scott kirby talking about this all the time. the big orders that have will be been placed, we'll see it supplemented on a broader skate over the next several years, which is great news for boeing, ai airbus that is the cycle that's coming. you may not see it over the next couple weeks or months, that is the cycle that is here >> it will be interesting to watch. phil, thanks, we'll see what the

lines look like, especially at ord today. ntuein" "squawk on the street coins a moment. jerry is here! j! mate, how are ya!? it's so good to see you. good to see all of you, yeah! why is jerry so... popular? it's been like this ever since we started using workday. what do you mean? it makes it easier to develop great relationships with our suppliers. now everyone, everywhere loves jerry. they sure do. they do.

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tonight on cnbc, do not miss crypto night in america, a window into the rapidly growing world of cryptocurrencies, how to make money off of it, how to avoid losing money off of it tune in tonight. opening bell is 5:30 away.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by -- goldman sachs out with a call on the coordinated oil reserve released by the u.s. and other nations as a drop in the ocean.

the release of supply is smaller than the $100 million plus that the market had been pricing in in advance crude oil right before that release had gone -- wti down to about 86 in less than two weeks, right? so it seems like pretty much everyone decided that something was coming, priced it into some degree, and some degrees government as gesture that it seems like they're doing something, and hopefully moderates on its own >> jeff curry over there in the meantime, the consolidation can't be trusted technically. it's safe to buy the dips, tom liesman argues. >> you're not even unwinding that whole move you got. i do think that everyone keeps watching the supply response

from private producers. >> although rsm looks at the spread, it does imply relief at the pump, and to the tune of 10% or 11% in the coming weeks, which would be helpful. >> something else we've been watching is power prices in europe it is important to the overall economy there. their second biggest jump i think yesterday. it's gotten cold the wind is not blowing the way they need it to. that is something we should be keeping an eye on, because, yes, of course gasoline prices in this country are important that's what we're talking about with the reserve, but power prices in europe could be a potential crisis, if it stays cold and if the wind doesn't start to blow. >> you never hope for it, but if things slow on the demand side, we'll see if it eases things a

little, but the prices for the right to pollute are skyrocketing power producers are -- all of this is knock-on effects. >> a completely different picture regarding energy supply in europe than it is here in the united states. let's get to the opening bell and the real-time exchanges. it is macy's celebrating the 95th annual macy's thanksgiving parade you should have seen santa's entrance a few years ago the parade is on nbc tomorrow morning. we mentioned nordstrom before the bell, but just a coda, that it's on pace for the worth day ever they take huge bites out of these retailers. it seems like they don't have an immediate plan b valuations are not as cheap as they have been from the group. right now we're in this

environment where tactical investors feel like if it's not helping me in the next month, we can sell it and regroup. gap, as it opens up, the biggest leader on the down side, down 21%. what was the family's lbo price for -- >> for nordstrom i believes it was in the 40s if memory serves, mike, it was in the 40s financing was an issue at that point, even with their significant ownership stake. that does put it in some perspective. they've been public a long time. that's a tough day right now for that company when you have analysts questioning the excuse, it goes beyond just some of the pressures we are seeing right now in terms of supply chain or labor force.

the hyper growth, heavy hedge fund ownership yesterday looked at if -- if you looked at the fintech names, the cloud software stocks, they created this up trend. maybe people thought it was lightening up. zillow is around the flat line, that's one of the names that could have been caught up in, so that's probably what the day's parlor games will be, are these sellers urgently want been to exit or taking tax losses or forced to delever or something like that, are they done yet that's tough to know. >> we looked at autodesk on the top of the hour. it was a 68 billion market cap company. it's going to be down as much as 13%, but it's interesting. it is citing any numbers of things we are dealing with here

almost every day a new subscription grown, driven by what they says were supply chain disruptions a. purchasing basic as well. they also -- those customers dealing with staff shortages limited their ability to take on new work, which perhaps meant not using as of the from autodesk as well, and then covid, but that's a big drop for that name, if you go back, has performed fairly well. >> of course, that's a software company that serves, you know, companies that build things. it's real-world stuff, not just automating some other function that is already in the cloud so i do think that is one of the reasons that it's legitimate to cite >> there again, this is a

concern about decelerating billings, 25.6%, you can see losing a fifth of its market cap, a little more than that right now. also, not a great outlook, subscription growth could slow further to 27 from 33% this quarter. so that also is being sold aggressively right now again, these are high multiple names. they do get hit pretty hard when they miss. >> no doubt about it on the up side you have some earnings reactions hp is up 9%. that's again, when not-so hoff bad things and slight upside things happen to super-cheap stocks. >> hp was talking to benefits of people being at home, because they had to upgrade, get new printers, new laptops. now they're talking about the

return to the office being a help as well they've been dealing with supply chain issues as well, as you might imagine, but a very strong quarter. dell not seeing the same response dm ware no longer. it's pure. it did report what was above consensus. revenue and eps, 9% quarter to quarter growth by the way as well and that did overall drop a very strong quarter. >> nasdaq down a full percent now, again, after doing it a couple times so far this week. ten year, this daily headline, what she said was she could see the case for a faster taper, but being relatively dovish on the heels of --

>> tremendous amount of debate s i think it's not been much of a secret that the fed itself is in a hurry to be done with qe now, they want to stick to the november/december pace they laid out it after that they quickened it up. they probably still want to be careful, an immediate rate hike thereafter one of the complicated things we'll get today. one of the complicating things is the comparisons for monthly inflation are super-low and easy until you get to march, right? so if you get hot inflation, you'll still be able to say -- as powell used to say. >> do you really want to change your posture based on those things, or are we going to have to wait for a cleaner read on the trend margin. >> the minutes i think will predate some of the hot pc data

we got the last couple weeks it definitely is interested. we talked about the retail action do you think we're in a strange period where double-digit, 20% declines on a single name has become de riguer or not? >> it's definitely different from what we have seen, these moves up and down. >> everything is sort of the options flows are dictating, you know, where the money is going on a given day so i think that's fair to say that it's, you know -- also overall equity sdpos your, individual and professional are

relativelyhigh so it sort of seems as if there's a quickness to sort of call the flock, you know, when you've already got a decent size on the bet there the rotation has been pretty helpful. the bank index is up only -- they're probably tired, banks have had a good run. 3.5% this week so, yeah, i think that's kind of been the story is there going to be enough on the other side of the beneficiaries of this environment? >> autos, tesla down a little bit again today, as we get some news that musk has off-loaded almost 10 billion since the twitter poll we talked about the "f.t." piece about it adam jonas does a mea culpa on ford jim farley has brought a lot of

energy to the company, but reiterates underweight on his overall notion that evs will not be the money-making business that internal combustions are. >> he's a jonas fan as well, but i would argue that he's more of a farley fan i think that would be the case obviously crimers has been right, jonas has been wrong on ford's performance lucid, mike, still has a larger market cap than ford these things sort of cede a bit of a base. rivian is about $100 billion, lucid about $83 billion, so i think it's what tesla, toy outroa, maybe even volkswagen is in there >> yeah, i mean, what's interesting is they're all down, because sometimes it seems as if you buy the new guys or the old one, but we'll see how it

develops throughout the day. they obviously are -- it's a lot of future hopes and dreams inside these numbers ford is never going to get the full benefit no legacy company ever is. you can have, you know -- oracle can say we're a cloud company, and part of it is, but they won't get the same valuation and always clamors for them to split out, but invariably, investor positions change. >> and sometimes it's quite arti artificial we're talking about the same factories -- >> without a doubt. >> we remember barnes & noble was a public company at one point. >> you do a tracking stock, remember. >> hughes electronics?

>> yeah. >> right. >> eds perot and all of that marathon oil >> that's right. wow, look at santoli going way back testing my memory. >> i know a lot of stuff that used to happen today, i'm not so sure [ laughter ] semis are not doing so hot today, even with this news on samsung and texas, a lot of people looking at statistics the u.s. used to produce 30% of the world as semis, now it's 12%. >> you could say that's generally net positive, the next phase is all great i'm not sure if it's necessarily going to be something that the stocks care about in the near term, but we have seen what happens when things are domiciled everywhere else and you have the glitches and

logjams along thew way nvidia has been giving back this week. it had an incredible run early on it was an $860 million cap. >> it's pretty modest at this point. in the grand scheme of things, it's been a pull back. >> still not bad for the year. let's get to the bond report as well, another look at how treasuries are faring. we've certainly trading above the 1.6 on the ten-year, but yields as they currently stand we does get personal income and spending, consumer sentiment, the data is due out at the top of the hour as well. we have the jobless claims this morning, which is an interesting chart, carl, you shared on twitter, that crazy move up to, what, 8 million or something

>> it broke the that ichart. you can't see the real gradation. still to come this morning, sara eisen has an exclusive with the ceo of american express and irdamanuel man. >> i think you're singing look -- along, and no one can tell who is singing along. [crowd cheering] how's sanchez looking? with your qb's increased spin rate, any pass with a launch angle of at least 43 degrees puts sanchez in the endzone. you a data analyst or something? an investor in invesco qqq. a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations like ai statistical analysis software. how am i gonna do? become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq. ♪♪

nasdaq 100 laggards this morning, you'll see a lot in the cloud space. i think salesforce is the worst performing dow component there's autodesk, docusign, tesla and asml more "squawk on the street" continues in a moment. don't go anywhere.

♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

american express ceo speaking out as the company's stock that is surged ahead of the annual small business saturday campaign. sara eisen spoke to him exclusively and join us with more >> small business saturday back in -- to promote shopping for the holiday at mom-and-pop stores it's an issue that is important

to the ceo, steven scary, his first job any local deli, and lin-manuel miranda, playwright, of course, behind the hit show "hamilton" and we all got together for this because the category held up during the pandemic. plumbers and lawyers and contractors remained pretty resilient. i ask about the weakness in the payment stock lately visa mastercard, both negative for the year paypal down 20%. >> ne'er -- they're not balance sheet-heavy companies. they're all run by really great

executives who i interact with, obviously, on an ongoing basis because we're in that industry and we're more of mono line and focussed on consumer small business and corporate spending. we make money from fees recharged, money from billing and lending. their business models depend on more and more transaction growth >> that's not cooling off though, is it? >> i don't think it is they reported great growth but it's about expectations. people say we have our earnings. well, i didn't miss my expectations i may have missed your expectations and the reality is we know more about what's going on in our business than a lot of other people do. >> it is not pulling up. amex ceo told me business copting to boom up 8% over 2019

levels and that factors in the impact of travel, which is down for the period through november, they're up 20% on retail spending he's continuing to see the strength from last year. more including the reopening of broadway and streaming and theaters with his new movie hitting theaters today for thanks gvling weekend. it hits the streamers, disney plus, in time for the holidays carl, i know you are a theater buff and fan of lin manuel it was an interesting conversation about how to prioritize the box office with the streaming release, which i know is a big focus for investors right now as well. >> he's the best he's had a heck of a run lately. i am curious though on the credit card side it's just so hard to see around the corners. for example, there's a report

that merkel requested a lockdown in germany but the new coalition turned her down it's hard to guess what's going to happen. >> according to the ceo, he said they're not really seeing any slowdown in the travel book kz pings as a result of the latest raise. and in fact, holiday booking has actually surged for the first time because we did not see it last year. it's a similar message we got up for the hayat ceo that they're not seeing it right now given the covid surge. we've seen it impact sentiment and planning before. as far as amex is concerned, he's incredibly optimistic

we have to watch the inflation story. a little inflation has been very good for his business. >> look forward to hearing more this afternoon lucky you. meantime, this mia copau from jaime diamond he regrets making the joke about his company outlasting china's communist party. he quipped the communist party celebrating the 100th year so is j.p. morgan. he said i regret and should not have made the comment. i was trying to talk about the strength and longevity of the company. >> one of the refreshing things about diamond is he does speak his mind this is a quip, meant to be potentially funny. it does make him somebody we listen to more closely, perhaps, not because of his experience and position but because he does

tend to say things that others, more programmed by the general counsels office don't. as a journalist, i wonder whether it was off the record and somebody violated that and i wonder if it's going to keep him from saying things that are interesting because you want his input and dialogue about a lot of different issues. but when it comes to china, they have to be careful there >> you wonder if folks inside the bank were suggesting perhaps it would make life more difficult for them to do business over there, as opposed to a direct request for retraction who knows. >> the other comment he made was about crypto buyer beware i've seen this before as bitcoin is still hovering above the 50-day moving average. >> and most of the coins surfacing right now, more to say

about things like that this has been a consistent position for a long period of time whatever the solutions, whatever the block chain is going to be whatever we call it. we don't have a control on the experiment to say would all this excitement be there if prices didn't go up so much and so many got rich so fast and maybe you can't separate those things i think it's interesting you have the speculative energy. >> he's been quite negative, diamond, on crypto from the beginning. there's another school that he actually attends >> true. >> that he might want to visit some time. >> by the way, we're going to talk a lot more crypto tonight as we try to get our hands around crypto on how it's become

and will be a topic of thanksgiving dinners all around the country. in the meantime, dow down 167 as we get the session before thanksgiving underway. what the world needs now... is people. people who see things... just a little bit differently. who go out of their way to find a new perspective and a new way forward. because seeing a smarter, healthier, cleaner world isn't something that's far in the future. it's something we're building... now. ge. building a world that works. i promise - as an independent advisor - to put the financial well-being of you and your family first.

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good wednesday morning welcome to another hour of "squack on the street. live at post nine of the new york stock exchange. dow's down 130 got a bunch of data at 8:30 and more coming right now. hey, rick. >> yeah, so, we're expecting university michigan on the november final read. our midmonth read was 66.9 and imp proved to 67.4 that's still the lightest read in ten years you look at current conditions 73.6, verses 73.2 and finally, 63.5 62.8 inflation levels still hold hot. on the five to ten-year inflation, 3.0

it jumped from 2.9 let's look at personal income for october. over double the expectations up half of 1% we're expecting a number up two-tens and we blow away the minus 1%. and if we look at real spending accounting for inflation, also much better than a half of 1%. it's up seven-tenths let's get to the important numbers on pricing that is it the hottest, basically, since 2008. but it did moderate just a bit because at its warmest, we're looking for a number closer to seven-tenths year over year, it was up 5% 5%. for thaltst's the hottest sc 1990 and follows 4.4 if we look at the core month over month, it's up four-tenths

of 1% and that's about as expected and finally, on the year over year, deflart up 4.1%. that's the hottest since 1990. so, really aren't any surprises here we're expecting the numbers to be hotter and if we look at what's going on with new home sales, 745 seizeiasonally adjus units. it's a huge miss let's aim east and look towards dianna your thoughts on the miss? >> rick, it's prices the price of a newly built home rose 17.5% year over year in october and that's maybe why you're seeing this big miss. we were looking for 800,000. september's numbers were revised down so, it's flat month to month these are based on signed contracts to buy newly-built homes.

what happened in october mortgage rates went up it dropped a little at the end of the month now it's continuing to move higher so, it's the affordability issue we keep talking about. existing homes, rent, everything is going higher and 17.5% price gain is just sidelining buyers they're slowing sales because of the supply chain issues. they don't want to sell a home they can't deliver and my favorite number is those sold but not started again your supply chain issues and higher prices for builders, they don't want to build a home when they see how high prices are. i think that's behind the new miss in new home sales >> we're 30 minutes to the trading session a few minutes after. here are three big movers we're

watching deere. and the maker of pharma machinery says the month-long workers strike plus, hp inc., those shares are soaring after they listed a strong outlook for consumer demand for pcs is up up almost 45% year to date and we'll end with two retailers that are getting crushed nordstrom and gap. having the some of the worse days on record courtney >> hi, good morning. yeah, this week's retail report is a 180 from last week's. but there could be opportunity best buy reported a strong quarter but like many others, margins were compressed from higher costs related to labor,

supply chain and retail crime. ceo corie barry acknowledged problems with gaming phones and appliances from the ongoing supply chain congestion. shares fell 12% yesterday, down further today. dick's sporting goods lost 4%, with comparable sales six times stronger than forecast and help beat expectations about the holiday quarter. best buy and dick's sporting goods are historically the worst performers this time of year and best buy typically outperforms and recommends to buy on the weakness nordstrom and gap reported ugly quarters both hit by higher costs of labor and supply chain issues.

nordstrom down 28% for now and said didn't have enough merchandise to satisfy shopper demand nordstrom felt that too in women's shoes and apparel. and the rack business suffered because the same brands are actually selling at full price gap and nordstrom's issues will likely take several quarters, at least, for management to self correct. consider the sell off a promotional price. >> thank you that is a great set up for our next guest for more on the massive retail stock losses, let's bring in simian seagull these were ugly impart -- quarters for nordstrom and gap is this buying opportunity or wait and see >> hey, great to be back and love her lead in

we'll get some discount this season no, i think the reality is we're finding winners and losers we've been grouping all of retail together through the pandemic but at the end of the day, even if you subscribe to the belief that the pandemic was given an opportunity to refashion businesses and certain companies just saw better prices. all the times you and i talk about this, inventory promotions will come back and who shows the ability to hold the line when that happens? i think right now, this feels like falling out >> so, if it's too soon to say, are there opportunities right now in the broader down draft

we've been seeing? i think if you look that two that reported, gap on the two-year basis forget about rates, relativity their dollars are lower than they were two years ago. that's not the case for almost entirety of retail you look at a capri and victoria secret you can find businesses that change for the better. if you can find businesses that did more with less, that realized chasing promotions was not good for chasing profit, those are going to be better situated a store that made it through covid is probably a much healthier store than before the pandemic i think you want to figure out from a dollar basis whose profits went up and whose are going down

in an environment you have penalty -- pent-up demand and w heard about the supply chain what about next year when leaving the house becomes routine and not exciting and all the red sweaters make it to ports the environment is going to get hotter and there's certain companies going to have to go back to regular discounting. and if you can figure out that idea, that's where you'll get winners and losers and we're getting our first look at 22's version of the story today >> such a key point you make and speaks to the fact that there's such focus when it comes to the retailers and even if you beat on tap and bottom lines for the quarter, if you saw any pressure on margins, what you're saying speaks to that as we see more normalization going into 2022 and perhaps more

of a shift from goods to services, which is the thing i feel like economists have been talking about we haven't seen materialize in the data. what does that do the entire group, that normal zagds process looking to next year >> i've given up on normals. today is the nigh normal >> fair. >> i think it's a great point. we are going to see the instance where people will shop, whether they return fully back to experiences or not we are finding people want to prepandemic -- there's things people want. i think it's going to re -- i think the retail cfo is never going to matter more than next year navigating the supply chain because it isn't shut down, it's slowed down. it's moving across and more oan

issue of transportation. i think that's being to be the most important job of a retailer is maintaining the benefit you got from covid pricing power shifted away from the retailer,to the consumer in a span of two months, retailers regain pricing power inflation is a bad thing, except when it's called lower promotion. the hold space as the the ability, if they choose so, to be less promotional. the question is who ad heres to that >> thank you >> good to see you happy holidays >> meantime, tech stocks continue to feel the pain. nasdaq down 1.5% and wood was on this morning >> what we would be doing is

shorting stocks that are in the big bench marks. and when we get into a risk off situation, what happens is portfolio managers and analysts run back to the stocks, get closer to the bench marks and dump our stocks- great opportunity for us, as we have experienced in the last few days, to pick up on those stocks it's simply a risk off move to get closer to benchmarks and we think the benchmarks are where tbig risks are longer ter. >> guys, good to see you both. happy thanksgiving in advance. >> thank you >> good morning. >> i'd love to get your take on unprofitable tech. everybody's got their own basket morgan stanley points out that the out performance actually began before yields peeked in the spring and october

do we have to wait for yields to back off before this is a safe bet? >> i think it's partly a yield concern. especially e commerce really benefit from covid over the last year or so and so, we're starting to see pressures. especially unprofitable companies and tougher comps, you are going to see the companies get hit more as prior comments suggest, we are seeing some of the bigger companies hold up better amazon, google, facebook those with reasonable valuations and still get growth >> i wonder how you're viewing all of this in the post covid comps and yields >> we just got through earning season and our focus is generally on smaller cap companies.

i would say the predominant concern the supply strain constraints. if we can see the issues into 2022, we think those kcompanies should begin to do better. smaller cap companies can manage the costs better than smaller companies. if they do begin to improve, that should be a tale wind to some of the companies. i think though, with the renomination of powell, we do have a greater understanding of the future path of policies. and so, we think the tapering could accelerate as they have to battle inflation as we're noting where whether they're going to release oil reserves to combat that. we need to return to american

oil independence to solve that issue. looking to next year, we think that's a little bit better >> we're having a conversation on the desk earlier about what seemed to be these out sized moves in high tech related companies, stocks, whether up or down are you finding that's the case and if so, what do you think it's reflective of >> i think there's a risk off here i think what cathy wood was mentioning earlier that portfolio managers sell some of the other names that may not be in there we'ra we're also in a period of tax law selling. they're looking at their gains balancing out with losses. we're seeing acceleration to the those that underperformed recently if you bought a stock earlier this year, you're looking to trim that back and see that

taxable gain we as investors have a cash position that would take advantage of the pullbacks we think there's still a period of time between now and year end. but we're going to actively look at and deploy our position from year end >> any specific sector or stock you'll look at buying with the outside cash position you just referenced >> so, we like the infrastructure bill that's been put in place wireless buildouts we think that's a great area to be we're still at the early stages of 5g and all that gets connected through data centers, optical connections. those are the areas we like going to next year that have a great tail wind. and samsung announcing a fab in texas. semicap equipment.

that is a great tail wind for many years not going to solve our chip shortage this year as the factories take multiple years to put in place there continues to be the threat of overseas actions against places where semiconductors could be made. >> and finally, i've got your alphabet, facebook and amazon notes in front of me strong buys on all othem you got a favorite child >> near term, we definitely like google they're not exposed to the ideas from apple that have been hitting advertising. and a lot of option value on their services, including cloud coverage and we still think people can grow about 20% as well it's labor issues. likely a lot going to 2022 here.

>> still working through their vaccine mandate and try to get everybody on board at work that's an interesting story from yesterday. thanks good to see you. as we head to a quick break, here's a look at the road map for the rest of the hour, including the other space billionaires a massive new round of funding, keeping pace with the ongoing space race we're going to hear from the coowners of the sierra nevada corporation. >> names such as delta and united are hoping the holiday surge will help them turn a profit before the quarter. >> tesla and fceisr all in the red.

welcome back to "squack on the street." supply chain challenges continue to wreak havoc, a shortage of truck drivers. just a few of the issues impacting companies across the board, especially the retailers though stored is a cloud logistics company including wear housing, freights sean, welcome to the show. thanks for being with us

>> thanks for having me. >> given the fact that it's black friday in two days and the traditional peek shipping season is now upon us how you're working with the companies to, i would imagine, navigate what's going to be a deluge of orders and packages to consumers homes. >> absolotly so, stored is a single platform that conecs all the physical aspect of the supply chain freight fulfillment and at store, we serve hundreds of customers in the business to business category and enterprise retailers and consumer package goods companies such as body parts and dollar general we're seeing a massive flux into

black friday through the new year and an increase in volume since last year. we're already seeing supply chain issues how do you help them manage that in a timely manner >> what stored enables them to do with the network across the u.s., over 30,000 carriers and more is get amazon-level logistics with increased visibility, which is hard for one of the brands to handle on their own, given the infrastructure costs, volume and more we're projecting a increase year over year. if we normalize that, that's somewhere 20 to 30% per customer and you're picking which warehouse you're going to ship each and every order out of and planning that months and years inned a vansz.

we enable to them to use data in the platform and have it on demand and flexibly to unlock capacity they didn't have prior in their supply chains >> we've been having the conversations for weeks, where the bottle necks are in supply chains we're hearing about an over abundance of empty containers that can't make their way out of ports. all the ships piling up off the coast of, for example, l.a. and long beach given the fact you're connecting different links in the supply chain, are they starting to ease at all >> great question. it starts at the ported we have over 90 ships add sea through the trucking providers, where there's not enough capacity.

over 20,000 containers, which each takes a truck driver and getting them in the warehouse, there is dwindling warehouse capacity, around the lauos anges port it's been extremely challenging. places are filling up rapidly and the warehouse space is going away quickly brands can mitigate a lat of the warehouse challenges by going to the other mark ets where they gt more space but higher trucking costs. but then it's labor in the facilities so, stored is focusing on offering competitive benefits and making the warehouse jobs less grueling and more attractive, such as implementing robotics and help alleviate the

more labor intensive tracks to make it more enticing. >> up 11 at home depot wonder if you think the big guys over prepared and if they did, does inventory actively look for a home in january and could thichks get more promotional >> it's just focussed on inventory. companies only had 10% more inventory than they were selling in any given quart f that's why you were out of stock all the sudden i think we'll see companies return to a 1.5 to 1.6 inventory to sales ratio over the coming quarters and companies will have more on their balance sheets but brands have and in many

cases, retailers, over 30% of the inventory is tied in transit. it ultimately will make them more successful in the long run. it all comes down the best brands and best supply chains out there are taking those near term costs and incorporating them for the future by prioritizing the customer relationship over the near term cost >> okay. sean henry, thanks for joining us today >> thank you so much for having me >> tonight, don't miss the cnbc special called "crypto night in america. we'll talk about this much discussed but little understood asset class, how to make money off of it safely we'll talk to big guests, including galaxy digital 6:00 tonight eastern. we're back after this.

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welcome back germany. est's new leaders are ready to take power they emerged from weeks of

secret talks to announce they have an agreemtd on how to form a coalition government they will replace chancellor angela merkel. members of the three parties need to ratify the deal and that's expected to in the next week or two. the jury in the ahmaud arbery trial came in the court room briefly to rewatch videos and asked to hear the 911 call that one of the defendants made the day ahmaud arbery was killed and nasa announced a spacecraft that will smash into an asteroid. this target is not a threat to earth but nasa wants to know if it can divert an asteroid if it is heading to collide with the planet certainly hope so. >> that is a highly anticipated mission that's going to take about ten months for the actual collision to hammon. we'll watch now and again next

fall thank you. let's hit our etf spotlight as we head to break. adding to his yearly gains up about eight-tenths of a percent. including big cap tech names like amazon. one in particular we're watching is vmware. give an upbeat forecast and they reversed course because they're now up 2.5%. that stock is down about 12.5% over the past month of trading we're going to take a quick break here with all the major averages lower don't go anywhere. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna.

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millions of americans are

set to fly for thanksgiving. lively at o'hare and has more. hi, again, phil. >> reporter: hi, carl, we're knee deep. but it's been a quiet one so far. mainly because we haven't seen any storms disrespecting for the country. we're getting closer and closer to edging above 2019 levels. better than the first half of noevl. and yes, the people flying are paying more. certainly more than nine months ago for an airplane ticket but they are not back to 2019 levels ubs out with a note saying while q 22021, advertise average fairs and overall ticket prices remain in the high teen range, verses prepandemic levels that's one reason to look at the major airlines in the united states all of them have been under

pressure, primarily the last couple of weeks. in part because of the higher jet fuel costs and because many investors are looking at these guys and saying they're unlikely to turn a profit thin first quarter. first quarter issall wasz tough for the airlines but the second and third, that's when people are saying are we finally through the profit zone, if you will. the good news is it's a smooth start and most expected to be a smooth travel period all the way through next monday or tuesday >> all right phil, thank you. let's get a closer look at what phil was just talking about in terms of the profit picture potentially for the airline. bring in citi analyst, steven trent. profitability has been hard to come by over the last 18 months to two years is the third quarter going to be a profitable one for many of the

airlines you follow? >> yes, good morning and thank you for having me. i think you're going to see a mixed bag in terms of profitability. one of the things i would highlight is oil price we are getting a little bit better movement there in terms of relief. the crude oil curve continues to be in backwardation. that could provide support in the fourth quarter i would say over a high travel season, no news is good news so, we haven't seen any, at least so far, any major wither delays or sickouts from employees that could lead to unexpected cost. cautious optimism for some >> i know you guys at citi, do a survey in terms of domestic bookings what are you seeing given the survey for september >> sure. so, at this point we estimate the booking curve is roughly 30%

done and what we are seeing at this juncture is basically volumes, roughly 14% below prepandemic levels and pricing down in the double digits however, as we look to end of year, it is conceivable that we get some booking curve strength, which could really help to close the gap. so, relative to prepandemic levels, pricing is still tough because there's not that much managed business travel. if you look at tourism ticket prices and visiting friends and relative ticket prices, we've seen good movement there so, we're cautiously optimist frkic for the end of the year. >> we got a bunch of retailers returning to february for the end of office.

would you look at the trends to continue, even if it's only a partial part of the week >> sure, i think we can start to a see something in the weeks after that one person returns to the office and they start hearing about their competitors planning to get back on the road or at least getting back on the road that creates some business urgency for the individual in question to do the same for competitive purposes so, we think about that and we think about the united states now preventing vaccinated foreigners, transatlantic potentially normalizing. does pfizer's antiviral end up being a game changer it's conceivable i would imagine the first few weeks of the year, it's conceivable we get a pick up in manage business travel >> thank you appreciate it. >> my pleasure >> after the break, the space

race heating up with sierra space closing a billion dollar plus funding round one of the biggest in the sector don't miss the co owners of the sierra nevada corporioatn.

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welcome back to "squack on the street." sierra space raising a staggering $1.4 billion. one of the largest raises ever for the aerospace and defense selkter. raising the money from strategic

ventures and values it at $4.5 billion. i speak to the billionaire coowners, about this move. their first ever, taking on outside investors and what it means for their vision for humanity in space. >> our plan is to make space more accessible and open a space business park. so, we want to be the largest real estate developer in space this investment is going to be critical for us to accelerate making that happen >> it is indeed a significant milestone for us we we're excited to welcome the investors that are really experienced and they know this business they have this vision. and all the sudden their fortune is ahead we can't wait to go to the next step >> i do want to get into dream chaser and the habitats.

but first, do you feel like we've reached a tipping point? >> when you see what's happening with blue origin and these major milestones, going to space, in parallel to that, what is happening on the national security front as well china's actions and the latest crisis with the satellite test so, across the berd, for space economy and our security, it's a tipping point. that's why it's important to have the right companies at the right scale to look at this problem in a more holistic manner to bring solutions and answers that don't kpigs today >> i know the cargo iteration is one that will fly first. are we still on track for the

maiden flight? >> yes, late next year and then we are building a third dream chaser right now and going to build more with the funding coming in. yes, the first flight will be definitely very important. we also have a crew version. as you know, we were ahead several years ago. and we want to jump back in the competition a few years to build the next generation because there's nothing like landing at an airport, right? splashing in an ocean or desert, limits your access because we want global access to the space economy. and only airplane that can land across thousands of runways across the globe is dream chaser given that capability and coupled with a green fuel we have, which makes it very easy to commercially operational capability >> you mentioned partnering with

blue origin a number of others for the orbital reef, space station and we're having the conversation as international space station is poised to retire before the end of the decade how great is the opportunity, whether it's in low-earth orbit or other areas of space? >> as you know, we are working with nasa on our live habitat. this investment is going to significantly accelerate our live habitat we are undergoing testing at the nasa's kennedy space center. and as you know, our habitat flies to moon and mars and can't land and stay on the moon and mars. so, we are really excited about what can we do with the live habitat, now that the requirements are accelerating at the space station aging and there's a lot of pressure to just put a new space station up

that gives us a very significant opportunity with something they've been working with nasa for a long time and building the partnership with blue origin there's very powerful for us to make that happen together. >> you just mentioned starship, which is what spacex is developing right now do you think that will be a game changer? and how do you decide which companies to partner with? >> we're on to the next generation of partnership because we expect 1500 more missions in the next ten years we want to be rocket ignostics so, we can launch across the board but everybody has a different value. starship definitely is a game changer. once they get there, it's going to give us additional capabilities and possibilities new glen is around the corner. v

volcan is making great progress. we have lot of options we're not relying on a single particular vehicle >> i think spacex and blue origin are very complimentary to our future plans and can become partner with different missions and programs for both of them. we are excited that they are developing advanced technologies making space more accessible and affordable so, that really helps us to partner with them. >> we know elon musk wants to go to mars and jeff bezos wants to colonize low earth orbit what do the ozmen's want to do inwe want to have access to space. >>ing down too

we had access around the world to thousands of airports, commercial airports. so, right now we have a mission. united nations, more than 80 countries are interested they sends their papers and want to do a mission with us. i think global scale access is going to be very important so this is a major moment for the osmonds who purchased sierra nevada corporation after bankruptcy they split it up into the subsidiary and now with this outside capital looking to scale up for this key moment for this so-called commercial space race. i did ask whether this would be

they are hungry. they are looking for over 1,000 workers right now. they'll be moving to the board level as board members for sierra space really the beginning of what's been a year's long labor of love for these billionaires karl >> talk about a land grab. it is pretty amazing >> coming up, why morgan stanley believes it is not only the tech companies but others coming up close to session highs well off the low for the dow of 23.

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as we take you to a quick break. look at some of the laggards in the s&p.

those we mentioned at the top of the hour earnings and guidance supply chain issues particularly what's coming out of vietnam or the lack of what's coming out of vietnam. orders customers, labor shortages and not spending as much as they otherwise would. we are back in two minutes

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before we close out the hour on squawk on the street, we want to get to our own steve liesman wrapping up the economic data and what it means for the rest of the year. >> what stands out is that consumers continue to spend in october despite climbing consumer sentiment not a bad number considering the rolloff. wages were up more than 1% core pce pretty hot. might have pulled forward in that number with inflation at a

30-year high meant real or adjusted actually actual but real spending increased. the difference making up the gap. there was good news on the business investment front. durable goods fell on the headlines. but that was a boeing month to month fact business investment up 0.6 as businesses continue to invest. gdp, disappointed revised to 2.1% in all the data, one number stood out to me. the sign that maybe the bottleneck in the car industry and jobless claims fell and the lowest since 1969. that job market separately rose on comments by san francisco president. one of the most dovish, she said

she could support a faster taper and see one or two rate hikes next year. have a great thanksgiving. >> right back at you hope it is a great one for you and for all of our viewers our executive producer will be holding for the thanksgiving day parade >> it is the coolest gig ever. to you and all our viewers, happy thanksgiving >> that's it for us. right back at you. tech check begins now. ♪ happy wednesday, welcome to tech