you want the lid exchanges, not off exchange price discovery. virtue for volatility. >> jenny >> new york community bank i spoke to the management on monday to reaffirm my investment thesis and came away feeling great. 5.4% dividend yield. >> weiss >> dick's sporting goods >> dr. j, take us home >> apple upside call buying i bought more. >> all right there we go. happy holidays to all of our investment committee now over to kelly evans and "the exchange." ♪ thank you very much, frank hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. here is what is ahead this hour. a day in the life of the economy. a ton of data out today from housing to spending to income and sentiment. what picture is it painting? just how strong is the fourth quarter shaping up to be steve liesman is here to explain. plus, as earnings season winds down we will look at three key sectors and the names in them that managed to use inflation to their advantage

the names with pricing power that should benefit into next year and with oil in the spotlight, rbc says there's one energy stock whose business plan is more stable than its peers and that will lead to a 25% rally. the analyst joins us we thank you everybody who joins us on this thanksgiving eve like dom chu who is here with today's numbers >> i am here and love being here with you guys on thanksgiving eve. happy thanksgiving eve to everybody out there. kelly mentioned some of the economicsed economic picture that we're seeing from the data. the markets are very mix in the same manner today. we have a mix up and and downs the doi is down marginally, 35,769 the last trade there. 4694 the last trade for the s&p 500. we will call it flat on the day. the nasdaq composite around 15,800, up a whopping two-tents of a percent you see the churn developing with the markets overall one place that is decidedly negative and has been for the past few days has been electric vehicle stocks

remember, they were hot, hot, hot for a good while here. look over the last one-week period rivian automotive lost, again, one-fifth of its market value. l lucid and fis car is down. rivian was worth about $350 billion at the highs post-ipo a week and a half ago. it lost $50 million in market value through today's session. something to keep in mind as we watch the volatility develop in that space one place in the sea of red that our retailers and consumer names today. check out what is happening with etsy we are about a percent away from record highs for the online marketplace, this online retailer it is up another 6% today. it is a momentum play right now. it has gotten a good amount of analyst coverage and commentary over the last week or so it reported earnings earlier this month they expect a decent holiday season, kelly. when you are talking about retailers there's a have and

have-notes have-nots developing right now i'll send it back to you >> i'm happy for etsy. >> happy thanksgiving, by the way. >> happy thanksgiving. it feels good to see etsy doing well >> there you go. >> and all of the people supply inthat economy let's turn to the broader economy now from jobs to durable goods to spending an sentiment, today's data offers a good snapshot of the current state of the u.s. economy what is the message? steve liesman joins us now with more steve. >> yeah, kelly, the overall takeaway from all of this data, consumers and businesses continue to spend despite a persistent and high and rising inflation report that we got this morning let's look at a day in the life. let's do roger ebert thumbs up and thumbs down. consumer spending, pretty good 1.3% above expectations. income solid, 0.5%, but take away inflation it is negative. business investment, 0.6%. jobless claims, lowest weekly number since 1969, highlighting the tight jobs market we have there.

but there is a thumbs down portion. you got to start with inflation. year over year, up 4.1%, highest number we've had since 1990. the fed outlook for rate hikes, now 57% for may. that's one of the highest numbers we've seen as mary daily, a dove on the committee, throwing in the towel and saying she expects rate hikes next year consumer sentiment is down, but spending remains up. people are spending. through the holidays though, leaving on a positive note, two numbers standing out to me motor vehicles and parts orders up 4.8%. hopefully this is the start of clearing that bottleneck which has led to high car prices second, wages up 1% on the month, inside the income report. that is keeping with inflation and then some. so good news going into the holiday on that one, kelly >> you know, if we just take jobless claims at super low levels and gdp, which by estimates is showing the fourth quarter really, really strong, what is that telling you, steve?

does it give us a lot of fire power going into next year or do we have to wait and see if it shakes out as strong as it looks right now? >> you know, i think for sure the third quarter was a swoon that was more related to delta, also related to the idea that the economy wasn't fully open. look, i want to say that if we can get past this winter with a modest increase in the virus spreading around that we should be firing on all cylinders the numbers so far are, as you say, very strong i do think we tend to maybe say, hey, we have this inflation problem, but not look at the other side of the ledger, which is we have strong growth and strong job growth. if this inflation problem does ease off, which i'm suspecting it should begin to do beginning maybe even early next year as we solve the supply bottleneck issue, then the strong growth should be the main story for the markets. >> that would be a great outcome. i think that's what our next

guest wants to talk about. great to see you we appreciate it steve liesman today. >> happy holidays. my next guest is taking the glass half full view and says between inflation, rising commodity prices, tightening spreads and low rates it is basically a perfect vichlt nor investors. joining me is jonathan goloman it is great to have you here, jonathan how bullish are you? >> well, like you said, the environment is really strong let's just start with the inflation. everybody is concerned that it is going to squash equity valuations, but interest rates are low, which is supportive it is not the inflation that's a concern for equity valuations. it is the fact that it may, you know, taint the cost to capital and it hasn't been doing that. revenues are driven by the economy. you just asked steve liesman a second ago but nominal gdp, which is really what revenues are driven by, are

expected to be 7.1%. when i say expected, that's a consensus view among economists. that's a rip-roaring number. margins tend to move with commodity prices, and you have higher oil prices. so in the old conomy, you know energy, materials, industrials, they're big beneficiaries of a lot of this. it is a pretty good environment because interest rates haven't moved in tandem with the inflation risk >> it is ironic. i mean unless your price target has changed, the market has actually over shot weren't you at 4600? we are around 4700 on the s&p. >> listen, you're right. which is why in august we actually put out a price target for next year, kind of almost saying, listen, this year is going to come to a good end, let's kind of start pushing our forecast further out and focusing on how strong things are going to be for next year. we put those forecasts out, they looked insanely high

now the market seems to be catching up to us, even on our next year numbers. >> let's talk about that number. 5,000 is your target for 2022 on the s&p, although as you are hinting you kind of saw 5,000 coming back in august already. what factors lead to that? i mean is it due to the top-down or bottoms-up? >> primarily we look at this top down, though, you know, if we look right now with wall street analysts and the numbers they're coming up with, we think that their earnings estimates are too low. if you look at the last, you know, six quarters, they've underestimated every single one of these issues i talked about they've underestimated how strong the revenues are going to be in this type of an environment. they've underestimated how much the unemployment rate is going to collapse. they've underestimated the benefits that you are going to see from higher commodity prices on margins so we think that the analysts are going to be forced, as they have for the last year and a

half, to increase their numbers and catch up to the kind of things we're seeing. it is not like we're seeing something new. this has been exactly what has been the case for the last, you know, year and a half now. >> again, it is not just that higher earnings estimates give the market some momentum it means it is cheaper right now than it appears. what do you think the market is really trading at and how does that stack up historically speaking >> you know, if you look at the market valuations we like to think of the market having one valuation number, which is a little over 21, but there are different groups and some are much more expensive than others. so if you look at the most frothy names, they're actually quite expensive, and the whole tech suite of companies is pretty expensive but if you look at the rest, and that could be anything from health care to financials to old economy, retailers, energy, materials, they're looking really, really reasonably priced so what we see is the fundamental story is best in old

economy stocks the valuations are most attractive on these old economy stocks, and yet we still have tech leading the market. we think that ultimately it is going to come to an end and there's going to be a big catch-up trade, i don't know, over the next three, six, nine months as tech gives away a little bit to some of the other areas. >> waiting on that one, but yes. let's talk before i let you go about nominal gdp for a second i was talking to steve about how strongest mats look nor the fourth quarter, but, again, it is real gdp. people think we could get a 5 or 8% quarter, add a couple of points for inflation and that's what we're looking for you think we are 3% real inflation, 7% nominal growth which could get you 12% growth for the s&p 500, right >> listen, here's the key. it is not credit suisse's view or jonathan golub's view,

although it is the consensus is expecting something that strong. we could do perhaps better, but those are really, really strong numbers. again, i want to highlight something i said before. the unemployment rate right now is, you know, at 4.6%, is more or less at the trough levels we have seen over thelast 50 year or so. so while we're saying, how do we get people back to work and how do we get back to the same employment levels that we had before the pandemic, you know, we are at really low levels of unemployment we are at, you know, gdp is expected next year to grow more than twice as fast as the long-term trend. >> yeah. >> these are fantastic numbers by any measure >> normally the fed would be well into its tightening cycle by now and they're barely getting started but it is a chat for next time. we will let you go say hi to the family we can see them behind you there. >> thank you have a great thanksgiving. >> thank you, jonathan you as well.

jonathan golub from credit suisse coming up, pricing power is taking center stage as investors judge companies on their abilities to address inflation concerns up next, we will zoom in on three key sectors of the economy and look at the winners and losers in each space plus, from nfts to classics like van gogh, crypto wealth is fuelling a collectibles space. breaking into how the digital world is disrupting the art world. stay with us this is "the exchange" on cnbc

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g ♪ welcome back to "the exchange". more than 95% of the s&p 500 has reported earnings, and only one dow component is left of the it is time for an earnings exchange wrap up where we parse the biggest story of the quarter. of course, it was inflation. we will give you the action, the story and the trade on which companies reported they do have the pricing power and which do not. first up, an industry dealing with inventory shortages, wage inflation and cost pressures all at the same time, retail companies that have been able to manage cost and keep customers coming back despite higher prices are rewarded. we have seen huge gains in names like macy's and dollar tree. they say they're healthy names like the gap, nordstrom,

unable to ex kite and manage the environments why such a divergence. we have cnbc's retail reporter with the stories for us. todd gordon, hedge capital founder, a cnbc contributor, and he will give us the trade. welcome to you both. lauren, a big divergence this quarter. >> absolutely. one of the biggest takeaways this quarter is this die verge enls we are seeing between retailers. we have a group of companies that has come out and said, you know, we have successfully been able to pass on some of the higher prices to consumers and it is not pushing them away to shop elsewhere at the same time you have a number of discount and value chains, you know, they're trying to take on more of those costs themselves again, keep prices low for shoppers, particularly this holiday season so a name like macy's i think is a perfect example. about a week ago when they reported really solid earnings, beat expectations, and also raised their outlook for the full year. when i spoke on the phone, he

kind of walked me through their strategy with pricing right now. they're trying to figure out which items customers are most price sensitive toward a commodity like a plain white tee shirt or pair of jeans, macy's may have to eat some of the costs itself to keep prices low. they have to be competitive with something like that, whereas other fashion brands, more designer labels, they've been able to successfully raise prices and not put customers away they've been rewarded for that investors are clearly cheering that strategy on in the short term names like walmart and target were punished for taking on the price themselves >> macy's is up 180% year-to-date it has been quite a run. todd, let me turn to you and ask why williams-sonoma is a trade for you mere >> yeah, it is a little bit off the beaten path, kelly as lauren said, it is amazing how the consumer has done the retail, specifically consumer discretionary is the sector leading the market right now, not technology

so i had williams-sonoma, it is a specialty retail name, the leader in domestic home furnishings. they do cooking, they own pottery barn and pottery barn kids it is about a $15 billion market cap, so it is a mid cap. they do direct-to-consumer they have a wide retail location we've held the stock in our value portfolio since we launched in october. it is up 24% in the last two months it has a lot of momentum behind it it has not shown a lot of volatility in this little bit of tech pull back we've seen. they just reported earnings. they warned that inventory levels may not see full recovery until next year, but they're confident. web bush just upgraded, i think they went up to 250. it is only trading 15 times next year's earnings. they recently hiked dividend, did a billion and a half share repurchase the stock continues to act well. we held it and will continue >> trading at 6 1/2 times forward earnings

lauren, let me ask about gap for a moment because it is amazing to read through some of the figures. people thought they would get $2.20 next year in earnings. they guided to $1.25 to $1.40 and their guidance supplies a loss in the current quarter versus the expected profit >> right >> and they own brands like athleta we thought were doing well and the forward p is only seven times. now down 23% today what is going on here? >> right i think the last i checked the stock hit a 52-week low today. so, yeah, really big losses in gap stock this morning after they reported earnings after the bell yesterday gap is the perfect example of where all of these supply chain complications have really gone wrong. i think gap spoke to ongoing factory closures in vietnam that have really hurt the company, from just getting products on shelves. it is really a supply issue, that was what the ceo said on the call with analysts it is a supply issue, not so much a demand issue. so people were showing up, you

know, potentially to athleta.com to buy leggings, but gap didn't have those in stock. the old navy banner in particular, you know, that's been a growth engine for gap in recent quarters and that was actually the brand within their company of brands that was most hurt by the supply chain >> wow >> when old navy doesn't do well during a quarter, we clearly see that impacting the company they slashed their outlook for the full year anticipating the supply chain issues to linger into 2022. >> i know. it is too bad for them it is like red friday for them, not black friday this year, tipping things the other way lauren, thanks for your time today. good to see you. lauren thomas bringing us our retail story let's turn to restaurants which are getting hit hard by higher wage and food costs and forcing them to also raise prizes like retail, some names are better equipped to keep customers coming back. mcdonald's menu prices are about 6% higher across the board and still raised their forecast for the full year. chipotle raised prices about 4% and the stock was rewarded after earnings before sliding 10% this

quarter. on the flip side there's brinker, the chili's parent company, saying profit margins were hit harder than expected and upcoming price hikes might not be enough to combat rising cost kate rogers is here with the story. kate, is it a simple tale? even within fast food i have to imagine there are companies that mcdonald's and chipotle are taking share from. >> ryan nicholl talked a lot about the value proposition a company like chipotle brings to consumers thechlt have a loyal fan base you can get a nice, healthy meal for $10 to $15 he feels they have a strong value proposition and he is confident about the ability to protect margins moving ahead mcdonald's is more of a fast food name, of course, but consumers did not pull back. the company ceo said due to that 6% price hike. so they're still willing to come back and buy whatever it is mcdonald's is putting out. the drive through is doing well and the digital and delivery business continues to grow

when you look at a brinker, as you mention, parent company of chili's and maggiano's, a different experience it is more associated with a sit-down, casual dining experience a lot of the casual names as we know have been ransacked over the last year. a bit of a bounce back early in the year when we thought things were shifting with the pandemic. the delta variant hit and it hit names like brinker they're raising prices and investors are not necessarily buying it. it is the worst performing name in the restaurant sector for the year again, a different value proposition and not a name that people may so quickly associate with a digital experience, right, a delivery experience you don't typically turn to casual names for that. they lean more into it, but i don't know that consumers are necessarily buying it. it looks like investors are not either >> todd, which of the names in the restaurant space interest you here >> kelly, unfortunately, none right now. i am carrying no restaurant exposure i focused on cmg, i agree with everything kate just said. as i said earlier, with consumer

discretionary leading the sectors right now, restaurants are dras ttically under performing it is hard to have exposure in here you look at cmg, they've been pulling back it has been a hedge fund favorite, momentum favorite. they were pulling back and they were dropping ahead of earnings on the 21st, which were spectacular. they started underperforming the broader averages in september. what is interesting, the earnings were unbelievably solid. 87% increase in eps from q3 of last year. i think they're fully valued cmg is -- they fully embrace the digital strategy they've got a great culture. they're trading 68 times next year's earnings at $33 a share next year they're expected to make $25 a share i think they're very fully valued i think wage inflation is a serious threat the company does claim to have pricing power, so we'll see. if that's the case, i would be interested in buying the

pullback, about 1650, 1630 again, i want to see the overall restaurants base wake up to get outperformance in the bull market we're in here. >> that's a significant pull back, 10% or so, because we're up at 1716 right now, and your first answer is that none of the names are interesting right at this point kate, thank you. we appreciate it kate rogers covering that sector for us finally, let's turn to industrials. a sector that could either benefit for get hit hard by rising rising commodity price deere expects margin improvement despite rising costs it is a different story for 3m the industrial giant lowered the full-years earning outlook and announced price hikes on products seema mody is here with more on the mixed bag. seema. >> kelly, it really depends on who the end consumer is. that is how you can distinguish which industrial has more pricing power this season.

if you look at john deere, their end consumer is farmers which are benefitting -- who are benefitting from higher commodity, agriculture, commodity prices that means they're sitting on a larger budget, and one observation from the earnings call today suggested that they now have more money to use to upgrade their agriculture equipment, which can be very expensive, and are also more open or receptive to experimenting on john deere's more disruptive technologies like the x9 combine which can increase harvesting capacity around 45%, which means you are yielding more crop per acre. stat at the same time there's other technology deere continues to invest in that farmers seem to be very receptive to one is just their spray and seed technology for some of us who don't own a farm, a weed may not seem like a big deal, but for a farmer sitting on acres of land, one weed can have a huge impact on other crops, their ability to grow they absorb nutrients. they're a game changer, and at a time where fertilizer prices are

rising one option for the farmers is to invest in the technology that can identify those weeds earlier rather than later. those investments seem to be paying off with r & d expenses, kelly, next year for deere expected to rise by 17%, and the market seems to like it with shares up 6% >> wow i mean i totally can maybe not relate, but sympathize with the weed fighting efforts there. todd, in the industrial pace, u.p.s. jumps out to you? >> yes i was thinking the same thing, looking outside, i'm glad it is november and the weeds died off. i have less than a hundred acres of a farm, i can tell you. that u.p.s., just added it yesterday. we rebalanced the growth, just added u.p.s. massive company. $182 billion market cap company, in the holds of a supply chain constraint, global pandemic, you know, it is just defying the odds it looks great breaking up here

through 2020 it is fairly valued, only 18 times next year's earnings they have almost a 2% year old on 1.93. they've been growing their earnings consistently by about 6% for the last several years. they're improving their efficiency they're not trying to focus on this bigger strategy, but better i think they're continuing to take market share from fedex, and i think it just goes to show that, you know, industrials are rotating in on a bigger picture, showing that the supply chain constraints and the inflation for the cost for industrials perhaps is transitory, just in that space so we're seeing industrials come in i like u.p.s. to take us higher here >> more names that can do well in this sector at least. we'll leave it there thank you so much, seema todd gordon, we appreciate your time as well that does it for earnings exchange coming up, this stock is partying like it is 1989 with shares on pace for the best year in more than three decades we will tell you the name and why one analyst is saying it can rally another 25% from here.

♪ welcome back, everybody. nasdaq breaking a two-day losing stretch it is leading the way right now with a quarter percent gain. s&p is up 6 points, the dow is down 29. at the lows down 222 a different picture emerging heading pooh the close today marks one year since the dow first crossed above 30,000 we are at 36,700 19% higher in a year, i should say, so compare it with the s&p 500. you can see the climb has continued since first punching above that milestone here is a look at the top performers during that period of time goldman, microsoft, home depot,

amex, apple, all of gains within 40 to in goldman's case 68%. boeing and walmart is the worst performing walmart is the best of the group with a 3% decline. verizon is the worst, dropping 15%. let's turn to shares of hp ink today, leading the s&p after better-than-expected results and strong guidance for the quarter. the ceo telling jim cramer they expect to see robust demand for pcs and prioritizing commercial clients. shares on pace for the best day since march 2020, up nearly 11ers. to rahel solomon for a cnbc news update rahel. >> hi, kelly here is what is happening at this hour. verdict reached. that is the word from a court sheriff at the trial of three white men charged with killing ahmaud arbery. outside the courthouse supporters of the arbery family are calling for justice.

>> let me -- let me say that is yet to be answered is will we get a verdict like the ones from the jim crow era or will we get a verdict that says, america, we are better than this, we must be better than this in 2021 >> on the news, full analysis of the verdict. that's tonight at 7:00 eastern slovakia's government approved a two-week lockdown its record covid surge in new infections starting today people can only leave home for essential reasons including buying food, going to work or school or getting vaccinated sweden's first female prime minister has resigned just hours after winning the top job. suffering a budget defeat, her party's coalition partner also left their minority government in the wake of the budget loss you're up to date, kelly back to you. >> wow, a quick about face rahel, thank you very much still ahead, american

express, small business saturday in its 12th year sarah eisen sat down with the am ex ceo to talk about how important shopping small is to the company's bottom line. also to talk about the partnership with lin-manuel miranda and his post-pandemic main street venture. we will bring it to you next on "the exchange. (soft music)

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♪ welcome back we're coming up on the time of year for small business saturday american express launched the initiative in 2019 coming out of the financial crisis to promote holiday shopping at mom and pop stores it is taking off i see it everywhere. sara eisen caught up with ceo and also lin-manuel miranda who owns the drama bookstore in times square they discussed the importance of shopping small. >> we bought the place two years ago and it took a while to get it up and running again. this place was ready to go for summer 2020, and the world was

not ready in summer 2020 we just reopened this year it has been amazing to watch as broadway comes back, the customers coming back because it is a destination for anyone who loves theater. all of the greatest theater is on the shelves around you. >> you know, i feel like the issue for small business, while everybody agrees, small your small business, go, the issue is not so much demand, is it? it is more can these businesses bring back workers, can they deal with supply chain issues and inflation and all of these other headaches that businesses are facing right now >> yeah, i think you hit the nail on the head i think the issue that small businesses are facing right now is not people wanting to shop. it is can you get the goods in the store, can you get people to work in your small businesses. we've seen a lot of restaurants that have had to cut back on their hours because they can't get workers. the other part with inflation, you are seeing the price of goods. you know, obviously, you know, there's lower supply and more demand, the price is going up. can they get the funding to be able to purchase the goods for resale we saw it a lot during the pandemic i mean everybody bought a

bicycle. even if you didn't buy a peloton you wound up riding a regular bicycle to ride around the streets. >> if you could get it >> if you could get it it was a supply chain issue and it put pressure on a lot of the stores i think that's what small businesses are struggling with today, it is can they get the goods, do they have the money to pay for the goods and can they get people to work in the stores that's something we need to solve. >> the other thing i was thinking about, lin, you mentioned broadway in new york city and a lot of cities it is about the ecosystem of eco connected businesses everything shuts down and everything attached to it, and what do we do to support it? >> i can't tell you how many of my favorite sort of preshow and post-show restaurants closed because there wasn't the ecosystem of, you know, we are going to get a meal and then see a broadway show, particularly here in the theater district we are very lucky to be back you know, i think, again, it is just about that extra step of

mindfulness. you know, when everything is one click away with some of these things, to take the second step of actually if i walk five blocks i can get the same thing like right here and making sure to supported local businesses, because so often, too, if you are supporting local businesses in your neighborhood you are also supporting your neighbor. a lot of us live in the same neighborhoods and cities where our businesses are so you are putting money back into your neighborhood >> small business, as we are here talking about it, has been a relative bright spot for you during the pandemic. >> small businesses have been very resilient when people think about small businesses, they tend to think about the retail shop or the restaurant or the bookstore, but small businesses come in all shapes and sizes, lawyers, dentists, hvac, plumbing, things like that. how many of us during this pandemic didn't have a plumber or an electrician or an air conditioning guy at our house because we're using those things a lot more so for us small businesses have been very resilient across oa we

dimension. i think it will continue >> how much runway for growth is there in that part of the business >> there's a lot of runway for growth, for us anyway, because you are seeing more conversion from checks and cash to cards. you know, i look at runway for growth a little differently. i look at it two ways. is there just regular growth and is there growth for the type of spending that we do. >> speaking of spending, american express's consumer business is seeing retail spend continue to look strong. the company shared some new numbers with me, up through mid-november close to 20% over last year. last month -- from october 2019. a pretty bullish view there, kelly, on the economy from the ceo of american express. he sees it lasting into next year we will have a lot more from that interview from the am ex ceo and lynn miranda manuel talk about what it is like to go see

shows and more from am ex on what they're seeing in the broader economy. >> i have to say i didn't know about in bookstore, and it is a great idea because when you are in broadway there's not a lot of places to go like he said, a lot of the shops or the cafes and restaurants have closed down what a great idea to have a place to go sit, still be absorbed in the culture. maybe you can pick up a book or something meaningful i view it as absolutely genius >> -- kelly, and the bookstore actually has a pretty long history. it is 104 years old, and this was not the original location. the original location was a few blocks away. lin-manuel and some of his friends swooped in because he actually has a very strong personal connection to it. he wrote part of "in the heights," his first major hit on broadway at the piano in the basement of the drama bookstore. they came in as a white knight they saved the bookstore they reopened it a few blocks away as you can see, it is pretty gorgeous he had the set designer of

"hamilton" design the bookstore, and there's a coffee shop and everything else. so, yeah, small business owner himself with a great story to tell you, i know, love bookstores you would love it there. there are a lot of cozy nooks. >> i will go in. someone else can see the show, i will just hang out in the bookstore and catch up with them later. >> read of the plays in the book >> sara, it was an awesome interview. look forward to seeing more of it, and of course more discussion of the stocks as well >> thank you still on "the exchange," the busiest time of year for travel is upon us with passenger levels continuing to rise will more passengers lead to more profits phil lebeau is at o'hare airport. phil. >> reporter: kelly, the airlines certainly hope so. we've had six straight days with more than 2 million people flying here in the u.s will it be seven straight days when the numbers are in for today? we will talk about that and what it means for the airlines when "the exchange" returns

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welcome back holiday travel season is here. with air passenger traffic nearly pre-pandemic levels, and the airlines have a lot riding on the busiest time of the year. we call it black friday because retailers get into the black, maybe it should be so for the airlines this year phil lebeau is at o'hare airport with the details for us, phil. >> reporter: kelly, they may not be profitable in the fourth quarter because they have a long ways to go, but it is certainly the best week the airlines have seen here in the united states since before the pandemic. how strong has demand been more than 2 million people have been screened by the tsa each of the last six days. it likely will be seven straight days when the numbers for today come in. these passenger levels overall for the last week, down 13% compared to 2019 now, the airlines have been adding back flights, but they're being more judicial about it check out this data from raymond james. they basically crunched the numbers. average daily flights, alaska is

down 23% compared to 2019. there you see delta, united and american here is the reason we are showing you this they are not adding back as many flights as they had before the pandemic why? the demand is just simply not there. remember, international continues to be a bit of a drag for a number of the carriers there's also the issue of as you bring back those flights, as you hire more flight attendants, pilots, all of the people that go into running an airline, your costs go up. they're already feeling the pressure of those higher costs that's what weighed on the results for some of the carriers in the third quarter jet fuel is up 70% impaired to the same time last year, kelly the bottom line is this. thanksgiving week will be great for the airlines, a big help for getting them towards a better-than-expected fourth quarter from a couple of months ago. will they be back in the black so to speak? not all of them. some will be posting losses in the fourth quarter, but certainly this week is a big

week for the airlines. they needed this kelly. >> yeah, it is already looking busy behind you, phil. obviously there's a lot of differentiation, so how much rides on this quarter for some of the carriers, again, like american -- not to pick on them -- but the ones with higher debt levels? >> reporter: oh, look, even if they post a loss, that's expected the debt levels are not to a point where these guys won't be able the meet their obligations. i think the debt concern, really that has been taken off the table relative to where it was a year and a half ago. >> yeah. well, that's a relief for them at least still, maybe a lot of ground to catch up on. phil, thank you so much today. our phil lebeau out at chicago's o'hare airport up next, goldman's jeff currie called for a commodity super cycle on air yesterday and he's not the only one seeing strength ahead rbc expecting higher prices and there's one name it says is more stable andttcte an araivth its peers. we will tell you next.

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being upgrated to $145 rbc believes the company will benefit from a strong kmodsty cycle in coming years and say they have a more stable portfolio than peers shares up trading around 117 joining me the cohead of european and energy research at rbc energy, european research. hi, and welcome to the program. >> hi, thanks for having me. >> tell me why chevron has a more asubtractive more stable business model than some of the pierce >> the two factors you touched on we believe they are in the early stages of a prolonged commodity billing cycle. and the second one is the visibility of free cash flows. we have many of their international peers looking to transition to low carbon assets,

and they are selling their hydrocarbon assets when you look at chevron's targets they employ a relatively stable business mix over the next decade. ultimately we think there is greater visibility on the free cash flow stream that should command a multiple. >> one of the reasons investors don't like exxon and chevron are because of the diversified exposure and because of the headline risk, the divestment pressures and so forth. >> i think those pressures will continue to exist. i think those can wax and wane over time depending where ecology practices are. i think as we move to the winter and the consumer starts to feel the brunt of higher commodity prices, whether it is food prices or fuel or heating, i think those concerns may go the other way and you might be talking about energy security in 2022 versus emissions

necessarily. >> i have a minute left 678 because you are here and very appreciative of that today, i want to ask you what you -- how you would now describe the outlook for energy in europe and even in the u.s. you know, it is starting to get colder we are seeing price really spike in nat gas is the worst case scenario starting to play out or do you think we look okay still? >> i think in the short-term it is really clear that weather particularly in the gas market will dictate pricing i think you could see a spike and record prices through the winter, not necessarily in the u.s. >> right. >> but in europe and asia. i think over the next few years, i do think that the sector is in about as good a shape as it has been the last two decades. temporary factors driven by covid but ultimately we have had significant pullback in investment and consumption trends are going after prior cycles so commodities are very strong.

>> raising your price target on chevron from 145 from 130. thank you. still ahead, crypto and the klattics, how new money swept the art auction sweeping up cezanne's while creating new drama. we will delve into that next get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity. what the world needs now... is people. people who see healthcare a little bit differently. where technology helps doctors provide more precise care...

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welcome back the new york art auctions raking in a billion dollars more than exempted that was thanks to new found crypto wealth. robert frank joins us with the story. >> kelly, total sales topping $2.6 billion at the new york art week that was an all-time record. 32 works sold for $20 million or more, also a record. the explosion in global wealth and fears of inflation fuelling some of the demand but it was also the new crypto rich that drove prices to double or triple their estimates. crypto -- justin sun was the

buyer of this sculpture, paying $78 million. he tweeted this was his third purchased if sothebys just this year the swiss venture capitalist and crypto investor ryan zerr was the buyer of people's first-ever physical work auctions a seven foot tall light box driven by a quote nft going for $29 million, more than twice the estimates. makes it the second most expensive nft ever auctions after his last piece in march went for $69 million we know about the constitution dow. they were yut bid by hedge fund billionaire ken griffin who will display at at the crystal bridges museum in arkansas

>> robert, have the peoples held their value? i have to say, that was pretty tool to see the way it looks live in that box, and -- i mean, you know this is a glimpse into what the next wave of generation of artwork is going to look like. >> it was really fascinating beeple his whole life had been envious of the real, quote art world. he had never had anything auctioned before his last one. they asked him, do you think you will see anything in an art house? he said i hope so. and it was a cool piece, appealed to this whole new crowd of buyer that showed up on line and on the phone like they had never. the auction houses love this, it

is a new generation of bidders. >> resident, thanks. be sure to catch more crypto talk on tonight's special crypto night in america 6:00 p.m. eastern. if you have got your family and you don't know what to watch, put this on. that does it for "the exchange" today. the famous tyler mathisen is right over there it is tyler mathisen night in america. >> crypto night in america the night before thanksgiving. almost sounds better than the night before halloween welcome to "power lunch. inflation, the taper, investors going to get the details on the fed's monetary game plan due out momentarily. we will be all over it it could move the market. plus, king coal, coal fired electricity generation expected to increase for the first time since 201. stock prices are