crab pie >> crab seafood pie. >> do we like pumpkin pie? fruit pie? pecan pie? >> i think i'm going to say yes. can i just do a blanket yes. >> a yes to all three. >> i'm a fruit pie guy pumpkin, pass. thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> thank you welcome, everyone to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen another roller coaster session here on wall street as an early plunge has given way to a more mixed picture. the dow is lagging the nasdaq is outperforming as we head into the final hour of trade. >> let's look at what's driving the action the fed releasing minutes from its november meeting, talking inflation and noting that, quote, appropriate actions could

be taken to fight it investors weighing a flood of data jobless claims falling to the lowest level in five decades consumer sentiment beat, durable goods did mix. and retailers gap and nordstrom are plummeting as inventory issues hit those names 59 minutes to go in the trading session. the s&p 500, three points in the green. >> on today's show, sat down with american express ceo steve squeri and lin-manuel miranda. you won't want to miss these interviews coming up we'll speak with the chief u.s. economist about why he's breaking from a number of other firms with his rate hike timeline. first up, a head-spinning session for investors. mike, what are you focusing on today? quite a reversal for the dow and market >> we opened up lower. it was another day of slippage you did see it move higher in bond yields. but it came back into balance over the course of the day

probably doesn't hurt. really it's amounting to a relatively prolonged 2, 2 1/2 week pause in the s&p. the index level, of course, now we have it up 25%. that's 4700 basically on the s&p as well. today was not that much happening. again, in terms of the broad big cap indexes. some of the hyper growth names were under a lot of pressure and that's allowing the banks to take a rest. take a look at small caps. there's been a little bit of suspense here as to whether the russell 2000 was going to have a sustainable break higher after eight months of going sideways it looked aggressive going into the month. a lot of people saying this is the consolidation. it's going to result in the upside and now it's actually i think creating a little bit of a two-sided debate we've lost a little ground here. not necessarily falling apart. but going back below that level

that we first hit back in march. didn't want to take a look at the hedge fund favorites these are large stocks that have the greatest allocations in terms of dollars across the hedge fund community this is that group of stocks, those hedge fund favorites relative to the s&p. this obviously goes back four years or so. and showing you all year it's basically been a grind lower maybe one of the reasons that a lot of professional investors are keeping stocks on a shorter leash. obviously, a chase for performance into the end of the year and maybe is getting a little bit thwarted by some of that activity, sara. >> thank you. the federal reserve out with its november meeting members signaling some participants are prepared to raise rates sooner than anticipated let's bring in dana peterson and senior investment strategist at edward jones great to have both of you here

dana, takeaways on the minutes and really all the fed speak that we've had lately where fed members are getting a little itchier to move faster and fight inflation. >> yes, i think fed members are saying to themselves, look, there are transitory factors but it's taking longer for them to dissipate. and there are some factors that may be more persistent given that we see very elevated levels of inflation just this morning's report for the pce headline in core, plus we're seeing a strengthening labor market, very strong, very low unemployment claims, and also very strong gdp and certainly when we look at consumption spending today, people are spending on both goods and services we're shaping up into something that looks like a backdrop that looks like you can begin normalizing or raising interest rates. >> mona, what's also notable is market reaction which is not a whole lot. yes, the nasdaq is looking at a 1 1/2% drop for the week, rates

are a little bit higher this week across the board. but there's a lot of talk about faster taper, including from mary daily who i look at as a very dovish member of the fed. if she's talking about it, clearly the center of gravity is moving here. and the market doesn't seem all that concerned about it. should they be >> yeah, i think there's been a little bit of market digestion of this new normal where we have been hearing from fed governors about maybe accelerating the taper. we have been seeing in the markets pricing in two to three rate hikes next year we're seeing the ten-year yield move higher. now we're at 168 or so but i think what markets are also considering, one, in terms of the fed, keep in mind it's not only when they start to raise rates, it's how high that terminal rate goes we do think this cycle could be a little bit shallower than what we've seen in the past this one could be maybe in the 2% range or so

much more palatable. we still think we're very much in the middle innings of this economic expansion so, yes, next year will be slower growth but above trend gdp growth earnings growth will moderate. next year we could get high single digits. and so that backdrop still lends itself to the continuation of this bull market could we get more volatility yes, we're already starting to see that we do think in the near term the value cyclical trade has some legs longer term as growth normalizes and maybe even goes down a little bit, those tech and growth stocks come back into favor as well. >> dana, as we all prepare for the moment when the fed is going to get more fully into inflation fighting, i wonder how the next few months worth of data are going to play.

because almost everybody would expect inflation ratings to be higher for the next few months just because they're going against very low ones. it's not until march that we get a better sense of what the overall trend might be at which point, who knows what we're going to be looking at in terms of growth. i wonder if you believe that the fed is still in that mode of saying, we'll get the taper done and then we're going to be agnostic and wait and see or is the market correct that in may, we're likely to already have the first rate hike? >> i think markets are correct to anticipate two or three rate hikes next year. certainly early spring let's look at the fourth quarter. we're going to see growth around 5%, maybe a little bit slower in the first quarter next year. certainly if we have another round of covid infections. certainly once we get into the second quarter, very strong growth we're anticipating inflation is going to probably peak in the fourth quarter but still remain quite elevated let's look at the labor market

also if we're adding roughly a half million jobs every month, we continue to see unemployment rates come down and the rate may be a little bit sticky we're probably much closer to full employment. so i think the fed can certainly be positioned, essentially if you do see somewhat of an acceleration in taper, to be ready to start raising interest rates by the springtime of next year >> yeah, i mean, that would be good news, obviously, if all those conditions are in place before we get to the first rate. i wonder if there's any takeaway, though, that you would have, dana, on consumers' mind set? i know you're at the conference board. the university of michigan consumer sentiment numbers have been depressed is it about people being unhappy about inflation or just a general kind of foul mood in the country? >> certainly our measures, the last meeting we had was in october.

the level was still consistent with expansion, even though people were still concerned about rising prices. they were still concerned about the delta variant and certainly a few worries about job and income prospects of going forward. but, again, i think consumers are -- our forecast for the holiday season is actually pretty strong. even consumers expect to pay more, they're still looking to buy more and buy less of goods and services and so -- and i just want to get back to your point about fiscal. there's still a likelihood that we could see the build back better plan passed and certainly that would mean stronger growth next year, not fiscal drag let's not forget, we've seen the infrastructure bill that could bolster growth next year plus the positive momentum we'll have exiting 2021, that 2022 is going to be a year of

above-trend growth in the u.s. >> sounds like you both agree with that. thank you both for joining us today. the first part of our exclusive sit-down with the ceo of american express and broadway's lin-manuel miranda. we'll hear what steve squeri says about consumer spending right now, travel demand and his thoughts on the fed. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. the dow is down 25 points. continues to recover we'll be right back.

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american express ceo steve squeri is kwespeaking out his stock is up 40% this year and outapprop promoting small bs saturday its personal for him and for his brand ambassador, lin-manuel miranda who is besides a playwright, performer, producer, a small business owner of the drama book shop in time square where we all sat down this week to talk about small business which is key for amex's growth right now and is rebounding strongly, along with the rest of kw consumer spending. listen >> we did have a great quarter and october and november are even better. we contrast everything to 2019 and in october, we were 8% up over 2019 in aggregate with

travel being down. if you look at nontravel, we were up 21% and through november so far, we're up about 20% retail spending. we see that continuing we do see that continuing into next year and we're obviously excited about that the other thing that we see is travel coming back especially consumer travel and, you know, our bookings in october were about 30% up. 50% of those trips were for the holiday season how many of us did not visit family and friends last year and i think there's a huge pent-up demand for people to get out and go you're going away for the holidays coming right up, right? >> yeah. >> and so there's the pent-up demand right there >> i'm going to puerto rico to see my family i haven't seen in two years. >> you're seeing that. you're seeing that come back and there's just tremendous demand what we're not seeing come back is corporate demand. a lot of corporations aren't back into their buildings yet.

>> is that ever going to come back fully >> yeah, i think it will come back fully it will come back a little bit differently. over time what you'll see is you probably will not see as many, okay, i'm going to take the trip to phoenix to visit my staff in phoenix, just a warning for my staff in phoenix at this point i think you will take other trips. visiting customers, there's nothing like being out in front of people face to face and, you know, building those relationships. i think during this pandemic, what we did, we cultivated the relationships that we had. but it's important as you develop new relationships to be out there one on one i don't think we'll see that back in 2022 but i believe toward the end of 2023, you'll get business travel back to where it was. >> you mentioned that travel was coming back. do you see it going into next year as well, when reopening momentum starts to fade, fiscal stimulus is fading >> we see that there's a pent-up

demand one of the things that was good for us was customer retention. we had better retention metrics during the pandemic than we did prepandemic. and part of that was people were accumulating points, people were accumulating rewards and miles for those trips that they haven't taken in a year and a half consumer travel is all the way back for us and i think it will continue into next year. i know for myself, it will as well, which i didn't get to take any trips this year. >> nothing >> we went to our house in florida and that was it. >> ceo of american express does not travel in 2021. >> i didn't travel in 2021. >> what about consumer spending overall and the impact of inflation? how does that influence it >> well, i think -- look, for our business, a little bit of inflation is really not a bad thing because of our model our model is really based on spending if things go up a couple of percentage points, i think that's okay. we don't make our money on lending. we make our money on spending.

i think for the economy as a whole, though, you don't want inflation to run away here we've been blessed -- there's a whole generation that has not seen inflation when i was growing up, that's all you saw was inflation. i remember putting money in a money market at 21% which is insane >> a lot of people, though, are making comps to the '70s. >> i think that's a bridge that i'm not ready to cross at this particular point in time but i think we will have inflation and i think we need to do things to pull it back. you're seeing wage inflation right now. obviously we talked about supply chain issues and the fact that cost of goods sold is going up as well. >> you think the fed should be more aggressive? >> look, we'll see what happens with jerome powell and what he decides to do. he's a really smart guy and i'm sure he'll take the appropriate steps whennecessary. >> i also wanted to ask you about your competitors in the payment space. i know they're not exactly, you have credit exposure and it's a little different

some of the stocks have been hit really hard. visa, mastercard are down, some of the fintechs like paypal are down i'm curious what you make of that dynamic and why you think that's happening >> they're different companies they're not balance-sheet-heavy companies. they're all run by really great executives who i interact with, obviously, on an ongoing basis because we're in that industry and our business is a little bit different. our business is, we're focused on consumer small business and corporate spending and we make money three different ways we make money from fees, we make money from the billings, make a little bit from lending. their business models really depend on more and more transaction growth and -- >> that's not cooling off, is it >> i don't think it's cooling off. if you look at some of them who have reported -- they reported great growth, but it's all about expectations and, you know, when people say to me, you know, we have our

earnings, you missed expectations well, i didn't miss my ex expectations i may have missed your expectations we know what's going in our business than a lot of other people do. >> you're optimism about the economy? >> i'm optimistic about the economy next year and we have to make sure we don't let inflation get away from us >> steve squeri. we've got more from the exclusive interview. next hour, lin-manuel miranda will be talking about the return of broadway masked and the battle right now between the box office and the streamers he's got a new movie out in theaters today and it won't hit disney+ until the holidays overall i would say the message from american express is bullish. and you see that in the stock price and in earnings. the whole -- as we discussed is corporate spending, travel and expenses, and whether that will come back fully which is still a question mark. >> value of transactions matters

most of all, they capture some inflation with their model that's also interesting is this battle of the small business that's been a big issue with square, paypal as we're sitting here, based on my am meex, i got an email -- >> small business saturday. >> for small business saturday clearly they want to own the customer relationship to a degree there. >> is it about high expectations i know visa is dealing with amazon battle in the uk. >> incredibly high expectations. very, very crowded stocks. a lot of hedge funds -- you never had to sell them and then just the competition over the next new model. buy now, pay later or some other layer of technology that leapfrogs the one that's out there. mostly to me, it's evaluation

adjustment >> they've done so well even during the pandemic. down 20% this year >> great stuff after the break, ark's kathy wood saying she's testing out a long short strategy at her firm. on the whole, there haven't many short sellers who have benefitted from the recent sell-off in tech. as we head to a break, check out some of the top-searched tickers. roblox and cloud fair. dip buyers are looking we'll be right back.

♪ cathi ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

the nasdaq and the tech sector higher today, but still underperforming this week and there aren't as many investors cashing in on the short side of the trade this time around >> short sellers are in short supply these days. short interest for the typical stock is at a two-decade low

levels reached in 2021, but previously not seen since the dot com era. goldman tributes it to a surge in retail activity, noting that the pickup as squeezed some of the popular shorts, but fear of a squeeze has led to missed opportunities during a year marked by an unprecedented level of underperformance in the hedge fund community one retail favorite is dipping her toes into short selling, that is cathie wood, describing how she's experimenting with a product that would be, quote, ark on steroids, shorting stocks that are in the big benchmarks during perceived risk-off environments. >> we think the benchmarks are where the risks are longer term. they're filling up with value traps. companies that have done well historically, but are going to be disrupted by the massive

amount of innovation that's taking place >> of course, even wood acknowledged this is marked by significant volatility in the short run. >> it seems like short older economy companies and long traditional disruptive portfolios is doubling down, not really hedging the existing risks there. >> yeah, exactly it's definitely the pair trade of doubling down on that specific trade which she's been so bullish about, which is this idea that in five years or so, these sectors are going to really take over and the incumbents are going to falter as a result. it's another way to play it. i don't know what the leverage would look like on that. but significant volatility for sure >> yeah. >> leslie, thank you coming up, a contrarian call on the fed michael gapen will tell us why there could be deflation in the market and what that means for

the fed's timeline on interest rates increases. mixed picture for yields today. the ten year hovering around 164. the theme of the week has been higher yields. we're seeing that in the short end with the two-year yield up we'll be right back.

let's check on some individual market movers

deer reporting mixed results saying that solid demand helped offset the impact of a month-long worker strike and auto desk chair is tanking despite reporting a beat on the top and bottom line. yesterday after the close, the company issuing fourth quarter guidance that came in largely below estimates and you see there, auto desk down 16%. more than 25% off its -- >> they blame everything, supply chain disruptions, labor shortage for a software company -- >> they serve construction, engineering, architectures time for a news update with rahel solomon. family and supporters of ah ahmaud arbery thanking the jury.

>> i never saw this day back in 2020 i never thought this day would come but god is good. and i want to tell everybody thank you, thank you president biden saying that the verdicts ensure that those who committed this horrible crime will be punished also saying that we must recommit to building a future of unity where no one fears violence because of the color of their skin. and france, the death toll has risen to 31 after a boat filled with migrants sank during a failed attempt to cross the english channel. and the nfl and the rams will pay $790 million to settle a lawsuit filed by st. louis over the team's relocation to los angeles. the case had been set to go to trial in january back to you.

>> thank you. we've got just under 30 minutes left of trading. apple has been one of the bright spots in technology this week. we'll hear from one tech investor who thinks apple could be on the verge of supply chain headwinds this season. we'll be right back. sales are down from last quarter, but we're hoping things will pick up by q3. yeah... uhhh... doug? [children laughing] sorry about that. umm...what...it's uhh... you alright? [ding] never settle with power e*trade. it has powerful, easy-to-use tools to help you find opportunities, 24/7 support when you need answers, plus some of the lowest options in futures contract prices around. get e*trade and start trading today. we love our house, been here for years. get e*trade yeah. but there's an animal in the attic. (loud drumming) yeah yeah yeah yeah!!!! (animal drumming in distance)

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tech under pressure this week, but the nasdaq down more than 1%. one name bucking the trend has been apple it's higher for the week and up 7% this month. let's talk about apple going into the holidays. good news, i suppose, that it seems demand is strong for apple products across the board as it

typically is but you're suggesting maybe greater backlogs or slow deliveries or maybe not enough supply where should we be concerned here >> mike, proper point to start an anchor in the good news about demand but the demand topic orbits the supply question. and it, of course, is an art versus a science to try to get to the bottom of what's going on there. one method over the past decade has been to look at their lead times and we did that today as a remind of the lead times, when you go onto one of apple's websites, the number of days until it's delivered a point of context is, typically lead times on a black friday, for their most recent products, the ones that would have been updated in the fall events, those run about ten days and we, of course, had the guidance from the company about this $8 billion head wind and that translates to six days in the quarter.

my expectation before we did this exercise, six countries, across ten different products, was that we would see lead times of 16 days that would be in line with what they told us a month ago what we saw was 20 days lead time it sounds like a small number, but it's measurable and did catch my attention and i think that ultimately investors should take into account, this is a snapshot. we'll track it for the rest of the quarter. but if it stays at this point, you're probably looking at a $10 billion head wind. it doesn't change the anchoring point about the supply or the demand, but that's the status of supply going into black friday >> and how material do you think that, not just in terms of this quarter's revenue, but to the stock? it seems as if investors will assume it's demand deferred, it's not destroyed and i guess also the stock seems to just kind of move on -- we

love the big quality, long-term story as opposed to one quarter's volumes. >> well, it's important that expectations are properly adjusted for these data points first and foremost, i think last quarter is a good example. phenomenal results but the stock did not perform well after last quarter because there was so much noise around that so i think the better job that investors can do at anticipating this to the core question, how much demand is delayed versus ultimately lost? the december quarter does see a little bit more lost demand when there is these pushouts and because of the gift-giving aspect of it, i think in a typical quarter when there is these supply issues, we just pick it up in the previous quarter. but in large, and by and large, i would say 80% of this demand, they're going to capture i would agree with you that it

doesn't change the long term about ultimately what apple is doing, but it's going to be an increasing topic throughout the holiday period regarding apple >> do you think investors are not paying close enough attention? would you trim exposure in what's the takeaway on what you're doing with apple? >> well, i think this is a $200 stock sometime next year 25% upside i'm not in a place to be trimming but i would be adding on pull backs. i think these can rear their heads at odds time i would be positioned to be purchasing in anticipation of those. but, again, i think it really separates if you're a trader and looking for upside the next two weeks, it's probably not there >> gene, thank you very much for joining us up next, an earnings wreck

for a pair of retailers. we'll take you inside the market zone don't miss tonight's special, crypto night in america. offering insight on how to profit in the world of cryptocurrency that's happening tonight on cnbc the dow is off autbo 16 points we'll be right back.

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we'll hear from broadway supersta superstar lin-manuel miranda and talk about black friday and how the pandemic has changed the shopping event forever we have under 15 minutes left in the trading day. mike santelli is here to break down the moments and we have josh brown joining aust as well. the stocks picking up steam into the close. the nasdaq is the best performer today after two straight days of losses, still lower for the week growth is getting a bit of a bid today. but the story of the week is, the s&p 500 value stocks, up 1.4% s&p 500 growth stocks, down 1.4% are things changing in any sort of lasting way >> so it's true that a lot of these growth blowups stopped crashing, but that's like for

one day on a day where half of wall street is not even working. i wouldn't too much -- put too much stock in the idea that we've seen the worst for zillow, peloton, penn, ipo, the spac etf, ark those stocks -- this is not what bottoming looks like, unfortunately. can we get at least one day with a higher low, i guess, would be the way i would put it but to your point, regional banks, happy 52-week high. cyclicals look good. energy, financials and those stocks are buoying us. if you were to say, who gets this week? bulls or bears i have to give it to the bulls because while a lot of stocks are now in no man's land and a lot of up trends have been broken, the indexes have churned sideways the entire month. all of that destruction beneath the surface that you chronicle

each day, it hasn't amounted to much at the index level. so i still got to give it to the bulls here the indices are not pulling back, even given everything that's been going on i think one thing that is hilarious, we were working at notable strength in the dollar which if you're telling me we're really that worried about inflation, go ahead and try to explain that and on the positive side, costco -- >> that's they priced in more rate hikes which -- it's not happening in japan it's not happening in europe >> i suppose we'll see if the rate hike happens, if and when but still i think that's noteworthy costco, all-time highs again low stocks are important in my opinion. they're probably more important than teledoc and so i'm really paying more attention to that and those stocks are telling us the consumer is fine and the market

probably wants higher once we get through this correction. >> that's all great. before we award this week to the bulls and the bears, the s&p almost to the penny is flat on the week $46.97 in change -- >> how much of the index are the five biggest stocks? >> 25, 24%. >> a lot of it. >> those aren't the stocks that are up that much this week. >> right, but they go sideways. >> my point was going to be, we're going to be here for 3 1/2 hours on friday, we have to hold off on giving the week to anybody. i know you're going to be focusing in on it too. >> josh is going to be working, no doubt >> shares of gap and nordstrom getting crushed after reporting much weaker than expected earnings here's the details on all that >> yes, nordstrom and gap on pace for their worst performances ever after reporting really ugly quarters neither of these managed through

it as well as competitors seemed to be able to. gap said despite its mitigation efforts, i didn't have enough merchandise to satisfy shopper demand and nordstrom's reck business had less inventory available because those brands were sells at full price. it seems to be more mismanagement. and it's not just this quarter back to you. >> mismanagement in general to the point where the market reaction is expressing that they don't believe these companies can execute in the next few quarters >> yeah, i mean i think that's part of it this is not an isolated incident necessarily with just this quarter for gap and nordstrom. they've been making missteps for the last several quarters. they seem to be identifying the issues they're having a hard time executing on them and working their way through them you know, we've seen actually a nice lift in department store

sales, believe it or not, whether you're looking at the commerce data or the mastercard actual transaction data, whether you're looking at results from macy's and its blooming dale chain that did better than macy's but it's not if you are demanding that merchandise and going to the store and willing to pay the prices but they don't have it to sell you, that's a bit of an issue. >> i agree i think it's about having the right fashion in stock with that, courtney, when is the -- what gap needs right now is a new yeezy release when is that happening >> yeah. i mean, obviously, they had a lot of success with that sweatshirt, right? it was the single biggest -- single-selling product that the company has ever had i wonder if that exclusivity is part of it if you put out a line and have it all the time, is it as powerful as these --

>> no. they need to have a drop or more variety. it's been very sparse. >> absolutely. >> and there was a lot of excitement about the kanye partnership. >> agree i can only imagine that they're wanting that very thing too. and i think a part of it, the element of the surprise and we won't know until it's pretty much right here. >> agree keep checking. courtney, thank you. let's check on ev stocks rivian down 20% over the last week tesla stock is higher. ceo elon musk sold another billion dollars of tesla stock cathie wood was on "squawk box" earlier today. her take on rivian and tesla listen >> obviously, we they are validating the movement towards electric vehicles which is moving into -- moving into an accelerated rate we like their vehicles what they are not doing to the

best of your knowledge is going after the autonomous opportunity. it really doesn't look like the tesla has changed that much from a design it has from a technology point of view, but not so much from a design point of view and i think elon and team are getting ready for this robo taxi world. >> she doesn't seem dissuaded by the stock -- the mega stock sales that we've seen from mr. musk no surprise. she's a big fan. >> that part is no surprise. she's been trimming the tesla position keeping it in check but you can't stay long tesla at a trillion dollars-plus and not say that this is about the autonomous software, the next, next, next just with cars and just trying to design a -- the next model that people are going to like, it's probably not the game, right, josh? >> this is the type of thing where you could be right directionally on both electric

vehicles and autonomous vehicles, which i think those two things eventually converge, anyway, into one story you can get that part right. but that doesn't necessarily have to translate to upside in these auto oems, we have to start calling them especially the pure plays. because of how much is already baked into, you know, the expectations here. so i've been looking at the names that will benefit on the increased adoption of both autonomous and electric vehicles that are not actually making the cars themselves and that just seems like those stocks are acting better. this is the example that most people are familiar with this stock is giving nothing back wea whether rivian sells more cars than tesla, doesn't seem to matter, if we think they're going to need the next-generation materials for the batteries.

chpt this was a spac that de-spaced it was started by a couple of natural gas guys originally. but charge point is not going to be retail gas stations it's going to be electric vehicle fleet charging equipment. it's more of a b2b play. you're not going to see charge point stations in your town. but this stock really hasn't given anything back this week despite the sell-off in the rivians and lucids this to me seems like -- i don't know about safer, but maybe a way to play what cathie wood is so excited about without taking the risk of $100 billion, you know, market cap company that has yet to really reach capacity and figure out how to sell a lot of vehicles. so i'm always looking for ideas like that these days versus, like, betting on tesla or any of the others >> it's like owning the broadband providers instead of

figuring out which streamer is -- >> but it is down this year, charge point >> for the year. >> let's get over to phil. today is one of the busiest travel days of the year and airlines are opening that the surge will help them fight the headwinds. we're at o'hare airport with the details. hey, phil. >> reporter: this week could not work out any better for the airlines they have a lot to be thankful for. one, there are no storms across the country. and i know you shouldn't just start your report by saying thank goodness we have good weather, but there are no cancellations when you look at the flights and we're not expecting one through the weekend. affairs, they're increasing. still below 2019 levels but getting close which is what the airlines want. they're seeing strong ticket demand we could have the seventh straight day with 2 million people flying. in the u.s., that would make that best week since before the pandemic and yet when you look at the major airline stocks, they are likely going to be posting a loss for the fourth quarter.

at least that's the expectation on wall street why? their cost peravailable seat mile has been rising, 70% increase in jet fuel costs it's not just the large airlines, it's all of the airlines that are facing this cost pressure. we could have a profitable quarter in here. alaska is a notable exception to the rule that many people expect a loss in the fourth quarter bottom line is this, guys, the airlines needed this week to go well in order to make the fourth quarter perhaps profitable for some but certainly make it much more palatable overall for the investors to say, where are we now? where do we get the profitability? likely in q-1 and q-2 of 2022. >> i'm not sure how much there was in the way of expectations for cross border transatlantic travel in the airlines stock you got the surge in europe here how does that play into the next couple of quarters

>> take a look at the four airlines that have routes into europe right now we're talking about american, delta, united, jetblue all of them have been under pressure some of that is because all of the airlines have been out of favor or the last couple of weeks. but i looked at the chart and i also looked when we started seeing the reports about possible lockdowns it's obvious it's part of the sentiment that is there with regard to the airlines all of the airlines right now, it's not a favorable place to be >> down 24% from their highs there's the corporate travel missing link which is a big deal in terms of profitability. travel not fully back on the corporate level. two minutes to go in the trading day. what are you seeing in the market internals things have improved. >> things have been solid actually most of the day more stocks up than down after that little morning sell-off if you look at the new york stock exchange, it's also positive obviously relatively light volumes here 1.78 billion shares, just over a billion on the decliners

the u.s. dollar index, it's making a new -- well, high going back to the pandemic months range when it got above 100. but it's got some elevation here you mentioned the differentials in rate expectation. also growth for the u.s. versus the rest of the world. all helping there, not really necessarily much of a tell we're just about at all-time highs. it's been choppy below the surface. it is going to go out ahead of a holiday about 18 1/2 here. as we do get toward the close. the s&p 500 has a chance to close above 4700 it's bobbed its way above that level six or seven times without closing there. i mentioned earlier, 4698 was where he entered the week. nasdaq has been leading this relief rally as we got some pressure off the high growth russell 2000, talked about how

that breakout was a little suspect. we're hovering around that level that we got to first it looks like it's going to be positive and the dow is going toward the flat line right now. it is right now down about 14 points the s&p 500 does look like it may have a shot of closing around 4701 which would be the first time for all drama, pretty much at record highs >> that's a record that's a record high 4700 welcome back to "closing bell," everyone, i'm sara eisen here with mike santoli. coming up, barclays chief u.s. economist on his contrarian call that the fed will stay on the sidelines next year. josh brown still with us it shows you that we have come back at the index level, but beneath the surface a lot of pain for investors this week some of the earnings movers,

like retail that is turning the tide what is driving the changing environment? >> i think part of it, there was a little bit of a posturing to get in front of the year-end rally. grabbing some high beta stocks people thought maybe you don't want to have it go away without you. those stocks, if they hit any kind of of a pothole, they've been ditched very crowded names high valuation names and you have yields going up which at least psychologically and at least had -- according to the trading patterns, recent, has been the queue to sell the highest growth names all that stuff going on. i don't think necessarily it's really disturbed the overall trend. i do think you want to see the market break out of this little flat line period here to prove that something is is going up. nothing has deviated from the standard seasonal script going into thanksgiving week, sometimes it's the soft patch in the fourth quarter we'll see if we get a lift going out of the holiday that's usually how you would expect it to go if we're going

to stay according to plan. >> you mentioned the stronger dollar, higher treasury yields, weaker oil, despite the release of the strategic petroleum r reserve. do you make much of this with traders not pricing in three rate hikes as soon as may? >> well, i would just say if there are three rate hikes next year, it means the economy is doing really well. i don't see how that would be a negative unless we've come to the consensus that we want to be on emergency stimulus for the rest of your lives which i don't think anybody really wants so i think it's reasonable to say that the ceiling as far as, like, terminal level for rates, is probably as low as it was into the peak of that cycle in '18 and if that's what you're really worried about, 1 1/2, 2% fed funds rate, probably shouldn't be investing you should probably be doing something else that is a very hospitable

environment for investors. if that's what we think is about to happen. if someone has a much more extreme point of view, they're examine to have that it has not been helpful for them in recent history and there's no evidence that that will be helpful going forward. so i think it's okay for people to expect that many rate hikes i also think it's okay for them to be disappointed when we don't get that many. if we do, it's because things are going okay so that's -- i'm saying what about it maybe what i'm saying is consensus. but market looks fine and it looks like it's ready to weather that >> not afraid of a rate hike >> no. and i think usually the first one isn't the one -- >> why would we be >> it changes the liquidity conditions around the world which have been driving stocks and economies -- >> do you think it's been healthy the liquidity conditions around the world do you think it's normal for there -- >> definitely not.

>> i hope it does change it. it's absurd right now. i don't think there's one person that i do business with, small business owner, professional, executive at a large corporation, professional investor, i don't think there's one person who wants to see more stimulus, cheaper money, the potential for negative rates, more mini bubbles, nobody is rooting for that nobody -- >> you have to check your exposure, though, and make sure you're not in high-valued names. >> sure. i agree. >> if we're going to get a rate hike, it means it wasn't a financial accident that preceded it from the taper or anything else going on in the world that means most likely we're still producing a lot more jobs. that means we're that much closer to full employment. it would mean good things even if it causes a little -- >> it could mean shifting types of stocks. this week is a preview. >> it could be >> there's always going to be

shifting -- this is a permanent -- this is not an aberration this is a permanent feature of being an investor. there's always going to be a shift in the market environment. my favorite quote about that is, just when you think you have the keys to the market, they change the locks. this is -- get used to it. >> true. >> look at the worst-performing stocks of '21 were the biggest winners of '20. >> energy. >> we're living through it already, the shift get used to it >> yeah. i did want to point out that we actually ended up about three points shy of an all-time high of the s&p 500 we stopped a little bit short of that >> to your point, we've come a long way after some of the pain. >> no doubt about it consumer discretionary, best-performing sector over the last month up nearly 9% our next guest says despite the rally, the power of the consumer

is still being underestimated. let's bring in chief investment officer at cap trust the personal consumption numbers from october certainly look strong this morning? >> yeah, you're conversation a minute ago was terrific. plays right into what we're talking about. the fact of the matter is, there's a record amount of net worth on american's balance sheets, five times gdp, which is a record all of the stimulus, all of the market valuation increases, all of the housing increases in values have created this enormous sink value for consumers to start and actually continue to spend. so that's kind of a tail wind that i want on my back i was on a couple of weeks ago and i was talking about macy's when they announced. i think the stock was up 10% that day it's given most of that back

through some technical trading and higher interest rate worries. we expect that some of this huge iceberg of savings is going to be melting into what's going on on the consumer -- that's really the thesis here. it has a lot to do with higher interest rates what you guys were just talking about is interesting. >> a lot of people were bullish on the consumer because savings rates were so high during covid and government transfer payments were so generous and both of those things are coming back to normal and fading so i think the big question on the consumer is, is the consumer resilient enough to face these very high inflation rates into next year with those two factors fading >> yeah, that's the question, right? we're in the camp of inflation being relatively temporary by the time we get to the fourth quarter next year, we could be back to the 2% range we're not overly worried about it it's going to have some headline

indegegs 40% of the personal payments that were given out by the government were saved. so it's not only current payments that have to get spent, the whole point here is we have this big, huge chunk of savings that's going to be able to burn off. you see that in some of the attitudes. it's fascinating usually when consumers are grumpy, which is what they are now, they're unhappy with higher prices, gas prices, sick and tired of covid all these things consumers are grumpy yet they're spending like crazy. i don't think we've ever seen that i don't remember it in my career and so, again, it's a tail wind when you're looking for where to put your money, what to think about. it's not the only place. you have to be worried about valuation and the rest but we think that's an underestimated tail wind to the consumer that a lot of investors haven't focused on yet. >> you have a few specific names that you like to play this

trend. just looking at them, they've done pretty well, the stocks and the companies, ford, williams sonoma and lowe's. you're not out there necessarily looking to kind of pick up the dented stuff that got hit on results. >> no. look, winners win, right we've owned williams sonoma for a couple of years and it's been doing terrifically well. they're competing with amazon with both the retail and online store. they've done a great job ford, we think -- we're a little more -- little less sanguine about ford here's one worry we have and that is, i think the "financial times" called it potentially the ketchup economy. where all of a sudden you keep pushing on this logistics lockup and the chipmakers and so on and all of a sudden they're all going to come at once. that may happen with cars and automobiles. we could see a huge supply

coming on next year. we just think there's a lot of pent-up demand we know the price of used cars is exceptional people are clearly looking to buy new cars it's that tailwind, right? get the tailwind right and you can figure out the details underneath. >> are you a believer in the consumer tailwind? if so, what kind of stocks do you buy to get exposure. would you be willing to buy nordstrom which closed 29% today? >> my play has been simon property all along it's the confluence of people wanting to leave their houses, the flight to the suburbs, and just this idea that the consumer is not only ready to spend, and simon being in the "a" mall business and not "b" and "c" malls which i think are probably extinct. and i want to point to a piece of news that gives me confidence

that the people who actually know what they're talking about when it comes to the consumer are as bullish as they can be. the ceo of authentic brands group probably the person who has taken some of the biggest risks on betting on the consumer, he was about to go public they were about to take authentic brands public. authentic brands is, like, this umbrella company that bought forever 21, barney's, brooks brothers and rather than come public and do the ipo now and get liquid on everything, he actually said you know what, we're going to wait two years. he took some private equity money and he signed a deal to stay on for the next five years. so i think when somebody like that sees an extended runway for the consumer and for retail and keep in mind that portfolio, brooks brothers and barney's at the high end, that covers pretty much the entirety of the

consumer spectrum. that to me is an important signal and that happened two days ago that's the way i feel about the situation that we're in now. could it change? yes. it doesn't seem to be changing any time soon. >> reebok as well. >> the irony there is, simon properties, you couldn't give it away last year the malls were considered extinct in general to your point earlier in the conversation about how markets change and the worm turns, it's a great example of something that frankly very, very few people saw coming. >> all right, well, to his credit, josh was there for a while. josh, great to see you mike, thanks for your time today. happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving. >> thanks, everyone. we are just getting started on the second hour of "closing bell." barkley's chief u.s. economist predicting the fed won't raise interest rates next year he explains the few straight ahead. and actor and producer, lin-manuel miranda, on

broadway's reopening and whether he thinks more plays like reinsen n" could wind up o stamg rvices we're back in two minutes. what's strong with me? i'm ready for anything. find out what's strong with you with fitbit charge 5 and daily readiness.

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some economists on the street are expecting the first fed rate hike as early as next spring our next guest is taking the contrarian view and thinks the fed will stay on the sidelines in 2022. let's bring in michael gapen the market itself seems to be repricing to expect a couple, three rate hikes next year what do you think is going to come as a surprise here on the inflation front? >> first of all, thank you for having me on and happy thanksgiving to everyone out there. i think the story would be the following, that the market is certainly internalized stronger shelter inflation, services inflation and fed communications, that's saying we may want to lift rates for risk management purposes. not here to say that the market

isn't getting a lot of this picture correct. i think what we're suggesting is that if the market is not internalizing something, perhaps as much as we think it should, it's how much core goods prices could be falling next year this is mainly a relative price story. the pandemic has induced a tremendous amount of demand for goods and we're obviously having difficulty supplying that. and goods prices are about 10% above where they kind of, quote, should be from the longer term historical perspective if we get a major reversal in good's prices, which is possible, that's a lot of deflation to offset where we are on the services side and could very well keep the fed on the sideline next year so i think it's a story of a relative price shift when that might unwind, and if it does, there's a lot of deflation in store. >> it's interesting. within the fed minutes today, there was the federal reserve staff forecast, that pce,

inflation, will migrate back to 2% next year that's in some of the models and most likely get back on the good side i just wonder if you believe that there's going to be sort of market patience to allow that to play out i keep pointing out, the comparisons for inflation data is still going to make it seem like year over year we're running hot most likely. when do we get to that critical point where we have to say, okay, this is the new trend? >> that's exactly right. the market is not wanting the fed to be patient and telling the fed it should be patient i would say -- this is what's going to be tricky you probably have to wade into the end of q-1 and into q-2. let's say that february to may time period to really see this it's kind of a situation of the more things rise now, the more they may fall next year. that's under the assumption that a lot of this is transitory. if there's permanent components, you're right

it's easier to hit the fed's trigger for liftoff and they transition from tapering to rate hikes. you're right, this will be kind of attention between where markets think and/or want the fed to go and whether the fed could be patient long enough to see if core goods prices are indeed reversing like they may it's a very good way that you put it in a nice setup, in my view >> michael, did you see the news from dollar tree today for the first time in 35 years, they're going to $1.25 on all items. and they don't just take things like that back, right? these companies have pricing power right now and that -- isn't that a hard thing to unwind, that and wages >> yeah, it is it's -- i think it's a combination -- an economist would say maybe that's a shock to the price level some of these goods are permanently higher but you don't see subsequent increases the shock to the price level has to reverse

it seems clear in some categories, primarily new cars, used cars, household furnishings, the big durables items, that those could be in for a retracement. i fully grant that there's other components where those prices may need to get passed through not everything is going to revert we don't have that in our baseline scenario. you don't need it to revert to get to the 2% forecast we're pretty much in line with that forecast for next year. you only need a few of these categories to reverse kind of in a major fashion which could very well be likely you were talking in the previous segment about the ketchup bottle story of supply. it's not coming out, you're banging the bottom of the bottle and at some point it all comes out. a few categories could get you deflation -- meaning inflation falling below the fed's 2% target by the end of next year

but, yes, there are a lot of stories going on not everything is going to reverse. some of these price increases are probably here to stay for the foreseeable future >> now what does growth do in your forecast for next year as perhaps goods inflation, really comes down a lot are we still talking about relatively brisk gdp growth and a tightening labor market or do you think there's going to be a wobble there. >> we have a strong growth forecast for next year i think even without a build back better bill coming in, you could see 3.5% growth next year. i would remind you that we think a lot of that will come from rebuilding inventories which are at low levels and a trade balance narrowing like we saw today. so 2021 was about consumer spending and business spending being extremely robust and causing a lot of imports and depleting inventories. some of that growth is about the right sizing the composition of

the economy. we expect strong demand with the consumer i'm in line with the general thoughts that were expressed in your prior sentiment the consumer spending route will be in a good position. it's the relative price shift in reverse, the marginal dollar going to services, bottlenecks becoming unclogged a bit, therefore you get a big impulse in supply which brings prices down, even though gdp growth should still be quite strong >> michael gapen, thank you for joining us >> happy thanksgiving. still ahead on "closing bell" -- >> we've all survived a year and a half at home it's been an incredible reminder of how important the arts are. imagine your pandemic without your netflix, without your disney+. >> up next, actor and producer lin-manuel miranda on hollywood's hybrid release model and whether it's important that his movies are shown in theaters first. later, we'll discuss the

problems facing the food supply chain when we're joinedby the ceo of daily harvest and ulta executive chair mary dylan we'll be right back.

small business saturday is coming up this weekend it's a campaign launched by amex in 2010 to promote spending at hard-hit small businesses during the financial crisis this year lin-manuel miranda opened the doors to his own small business, the drama book shop in the theater district of new york city. i sat down with him and the ceo of amex for an interview this week in celebration of small business saturday and i asked lin about the reopening of broadway and how it's all going. >> first of all, i'm just -- i'm grateful theater is back it was one of the more thrilling nights of my life when "hamilton" reopened. same night as "lion king" and "wicked" and our mandate is that you're vaccinated and masked. it makes seeing theater in new york one of the safest places in the world. what's been gratifying, sometimes you go to a place and that's a mandate and you don't see it being enforced so much.

that's not the case on broadway. i've not seen anyone's masks down and what's been kind of incredible is that people are really taking it seriously people missed theater. it was gone for a year and a half and i don't think folks are taking it for granted in the same way that being said, you know, it's coming back slowly there's the hits that are going to be okay "hamilton" is going to be okay but we really need to support those new shows that are coming out and i would encourage anyone watching, there's never been a better time to see theater because even long-running shows had a rehearsal process that they maybe haven't had in years. everyone had to start rehearsing from scratch to remount their shows. so "phantom" is as good as you've ever seen it. these are not shows i'm involved in, they're really great shows there's never been a safer, better time to go see a show -- >> you don't think the masking hurts the experience >> i don't think it hurts it at all. in fact, i think it -- at "hamilton," it helps, if you

burst into tears, no one can see. if you're singing along, no one can see who is singing along no, i think it's wonderful and it's kind of -- i don't know, i find it touching to see a masked audience because we know, you know, how -- something was missing when theater was taken away from us and we're willing to go the extra mile to be there again. >> when i think of pandemic moments during last year with may family, one of them is july 4th and washington "hamilton" on disney+ which was huge do you think that changes the model or was "hamilton" just a unique case? >> i hope so i can't tell you how many calls i fielded from creatives saying, hey, we're doing a pro shot of our show now and, again, it's tough because it's expensive it's very expensive to film your show we were in a position to do it we did it the week before i left the show in 2016 and so -- we really shot it like an indy movie. we paid for it ourselves

we said, let's get it while this cast is in the building. and so -- but i also think it forever demolishes the idea that a beautifully shot version of your show diminishes the demand to see it live in all of our estimations, it's only amplified the demand to see "hamilton" live. again, that's a win for theater. to make theater more accessible, to have more pro shots, have those out in the world i think is a win and i would love to see more of that going forward, if you can build that into your preproduction planning >> hard to keep track of everything you're doing. you have a movie coming out this week which is very exciting. it has gotten great reviews. it's coming out in theaters this week and during the holidays on disney+. was it important to you that it was shown in theaters first? >> well, i'm thrilled it's being thrown in theaters first that was not promised given the year we've had i think i've seen every different kind of experiment,

particularly with my movies this year in t "in the heights," and i just directed "tick, tick, boom, but you make them for the movie theaters it will be in theaters starting thanksgiving and it's on disney+ on christmas day i'm excited. >> you've worked with the streamers a lot lately how do you think about their role in the movies that you make >> i mean, i think they're great. listen, we've all just survived a year and a half at home. it's been an incredible reminder of how important the arts are. imagine your pandemic without your netflix, without your disney+, without that book, without that -- you know, those dvds i went back to my old blu-rays for some of the movies that aren't available on streaming during this pandemic

and so i think it's just -- you know, i think they've been a lifeline to all of us. >> what about the future of movie theaters it's a big focus for investors >> i don't know. that's truly not my department i know that i make movies for movie theaters and i'm thrilled to get to do that. i have -- you know, we have this former movie palace in my neighborhood, 175th street, i've invested a lot of my money to help regrow that as the movie palace it once was and will be hopefully starting a film series there next year. i believe in the live movie experience i think there's kind of nothing like it. >> thanks to lin-manuel miranda and, of course, steve squeri the topic is front and center for investors in some of these streaming stocks and, of course, in amc which has soared the movie theater company. and they're trying to figure it out postpandemic. you get these very short releases and then it goes to streaming.

but you heard you make the movies for the movie theaters and that's the attention from the artists, the lawsuit with scarlett johansson and others. that's still the case. >> in a sense -- clearly, look, there's still a theatrical business and what's interesting is it's almost from the studios saying, this, we believe, is going to bring people in. we have made a calculation that this is a property that people are going to -- it's almost like a bit of a calling card, if you get your movie in the theater now. it's considered -- plus, the streamers try to woo the talent with a lot of other things >> it's key. i don't know if i could see other broadway shows being watched on streaming like "hamilton. i think that was -- >> it would be tough >> they're starting to look into -- >> we did check it out he's kind of a hero in my

household -- >> in every household. alexander hamilton or lin-manuel miranda? >> lin-manuel miranda. >> take him to the bookstore. >> no doubt about it up next we'll look at whether personal income growth is helping with inflation. and why black friday is a big deal once again later on closing bell s made possible by what you don't see. cause when you're not looking, i go to work. ♪♪ strength isn't a given. it's grown. it's earned and tested. ♪♪ we all have the strength to see what's possible. it's up to us to unlock it. tonal. be your strongest. ♪ feel stuck and need a loan? move to sofi and feel what it's like to get your money right.

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ask your doctor about xarelto®. to learn more about cost, visit xarelto.com or call 1-888-xarelto time for a cnbc news update with kelly evans >> hi, everybody here's what's happening at this hour the coo of the trump organization is not expected to be charged in connection with an inquire by the manhattan district attorney. he was called before a grand jury that was hearing evidence whether former president trump and his company misled banks and insurance companies. and president biden has nominated shalanda young to lead the omb office

on the news, taking it back, j.p. morgan chase ceo walking back a comment about his bank lasting longer than china's communist party. why he's apologizing tonight at 7:00 eastern and the interior department has approved a second large offshore wind farm. this one is off the coast of rhode island it's part of a plan to build new offshore wind farms that generate enough electricity to power 10 million homes in new york city, balloons are get getting pumped up for the macy's thanksgiving day parade. you can watch the festivities on nbc tomorrow morning at 9:00 eastern. maybe sara and mickke are going themselves. >> it's a holiday tradition to watch it on tv it's a fun event see you later. let's get back to mike who has made his way over to the telestrator to look at personal

income. >> stronger than expected. here's been the trend for the last couple of years here. obviously these spikes associated with government stimulus payments that we got in a few different waves. here's the big one right here. obviously, the net effect of that, we're running above the prepandemic trend. this would have been had we just kept to the pace of growth in personal income, where we would be at this point you see here, that's a pretty good margin of advantage let's take a look at the same thing, adjusted for inflation, real personal disposable income, relative to the trend. we nosed below we have the hot-running inflation which was manifested in the october data as well slowing we're behind the trend and this is why perhaps consumers, while they are flush, while they are spending heavily, it feels as if things maybe aren't as great as all the data say. they're noticing the higher prices we'll see if that can come back from here. >> if the wage raises can hold. >> yes >> that's the story, right you've got this big transfer of

government money and that is up to crazy levels. >> the wage data is coming in very good. in fact, you have stronger wage growth among people with high school education and no more relative to those with a college education. that should tailighten up the lo market >> big question. still ahead on the show. bitcoin down more than 11% since just the beginning of last week. find out what's behind the crypto crush and whether a comeback could be in the works. ulta executive chair mary dillon and the ceo of ilday harvest on how they're dealing with supply chain issues we'll be right back.

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♪ ♪ crypto assets are pulling back today and have been under pressure in the past week. a look at what's moving bitcoin right now. >> bitcoin is trading around $57,000 today. it's been languishing in that mid-$50,000 range after a bull run that started picking up in september. analysts tell me it's the same sentiment shift that hit tech stocks this week bitcoin seen as the riskier asset and is selling off for some of the same macro reasons as tech, anticipation of more rate hikes ether, the second largest cryptocurrency down today. we've seen some negative headlines. india announcing it may ban cryptocurrencies

it's now more new, short-term investors. those longer-term buys who have held bitcoin for at least three months are now net sellers and this always always a sign of a bear market. but, they are seen as the smart money and are certainly taking profits lately, back to you. >> kate, obviously with everything, when it comes to analyzing this market, there's not a tremendously long history. but people are trying to work at it we've more or less gone, what, six months without a durable new high in bitcoin prices i wonder what that's done to the psychology of this market, considering how fast it was moving before the spring. >> it's flat over the past six months the question, is this just a higher low for bitcoin one of the dynamics is that bitcoin is now the less exciting cryptocurrency and it hasn't done much. if you compare to some of the

alt coins, if folks are looking for really high growth, not tech high growth, the cryptocurrency booms that we've seen in the past, bitcoin has not provided that in some sense, it is maturing. it's not as volatile some see that as a good thing. those with who are looking to speculate a bit more, might be avoiding bitcoin because it's not providing the upside. >> thank you. do not miss a cnbc special crypto night in america tonight, 6:00 p.m. eastern time up next, daily harvest officially hitting unicorn status we'll discuss the fresh funding with the ceo along with mary dillon after the break and the biggest shopping day of the year could look a lot different thankso tthe pandemic in one surprising way. we'll explain when "closing bell" comes back

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products like smoothies and soups directly to customers. ulta beauty executive chair mary dillon recently joined the company's board. she joins us now along with daily harvest ceo rachel drori it's great to see both of you. mary, when you stepped down from ulta as ceo earlier this year, i'm sure you had a lot of solicitations and questions from private companies to join them why did you choose daily harvest? >> well, listen, i am thrilled to be part of the daily harvest journey. rachel and her team have done an amazing job of creating a company where i think things are just getting started i spent the first 25 years of my career in the food industry. whether it was quaker oats, gatorade, mcdonalds, and we were always looking at what to solve for what consumers want at any given time, the combination of taste and health and convenience and value.

those definitions have changed what daily harvest is bringing is a new way to get what people want right now, which is easy ways to get organic fruits and vegetables every day through a sustainable supply chain in a way that's personalized. to me -- and convenient. people are not getting less busy bringing all that together is a sweet spot i think the future is bright for daily harvest and i'm proud and happy to be part of the team >> so, rachel, what makes daily harvest different than some of the other meal delivery services or kits like a blue apron that we've seen hit the market? >> we're quite different our mission is to take care of foods that food can take care of us we do that by removing the friction between the intent and the action of eating more fruits and vegetables every day we know fruits and vegetables are one of the many things, but can have a major impact on health the food that we make comes frozen, delivered to your door,

foods like smoothies, even ice cream that is made from organic, unprocessed fruits and vegetables and can be made in minutes. >> rachel, those -- i know it's very aspirational for a lot of people to have an easy way to consume more of those types of foods. sometimes cost and convenience or access here are the issue what about the cost side of things as we keep hearing about what's going on with agricultural goods going up in price? >> yeah, absolutely. we have not seen a rise in prices just yet. we source most of our food domestically and we work directly with our farmers. so we have a direct supply as we see things like tractors become more and more unavailable, the chips to power those tractors, we don't know what the downstream effects are. but what is really different about daily harvest is that we have a frozen supply chain which

allows us to be not as reactive and allows us a lot of agility >> it's an interesting model mary, eating at home, obviously, boomed during the pandemic and has still stayed at relatively high levels, especially with this new hybrid work environment what's that done for daily harvest daily harvest and do you think for consumers overall? how does it change the way we eat in >> right everything about it is different. certainly, folks learned and discovered things about making food at home many folks, i discovered daily harvest. i fell in love with the brand, because many millennial's in my life are at daily harvest and learning by it i think ordering food online is here to stay daily harvest is next. we spotted when you are home at work or need a quick lunch to bring to work or something to make during the day at work when you want something convenient but help , daily harvest follows the needs for so many people so i think that you know whether you are making food at home or

bringing things to work. you are working at home, daily here vest is a great opportunity for many people's lives. >> you have no problem raising money it sounds like recently valued at as much as a billion dollars. we have seen ipos do well, and w warby parker any thoughts of the company, any thoughts of taking it public >> so it's certainly a viable option for us. however, right now, we are focused on building the biggest most impactful business that we can because the more we grow, the more we can do that is where our focus is right now. >> mary, as board member of two public companies alta and starbucks, curious your take right now on the consumer and the sustainability of the boom we are seeing. we saw another strong spipdr spending figure today.

>> i would say all of us can see the economy feels very strong right now. i know there are things like gas prices, we seen retail that folks are out spending so, i won't sit here and say i know how long that's going to last but i feel optimistic about the state of the -- right now. again, i think here with the daily harvest business, that played really well the continued ability to attract new customers to the platform. >> mary, rachel, thank you very much for the update today. have a great thanksgiving. >> thank you. >> you too >> thank you >> all right up next, black friday's big return, for years, retail experts have debated the annual shopping day was dead. but this year it looks like the ma cldllou be busier than ever we'll tell you why when closing bell comes right back. >>

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. the countdown to christmas is on and black friday is the day after tomorrow while retail watchers have long debated the death of the annual shopping holiday, it looks like black friday might be back and better than ever courtney reagan is here to tell us why

hey, court >> hi, yes, as online shopping grows, door busters seems to move earlier, it seemed black friday was dying you add in a once in a lifetime pandemic, that would be it i would argue it's reinvigorated. 108 million say they'll shop, 64% in store it will be the biggest in-store shopping day of the year why? deals, top reason for shoppers but tradition is second. smr i if you are in the mid-west shoppers in the northeast are least likely to shop thanksgiving through sunday, but most like will i to shop on cyber monday, according to numerator. plus after closing on thanksgiving 2020, many retailers are opting to do so again. so those in-store black friday door busters are really on friday instead of on thanksgiving back over to you >> i love it i love the whole idea of black

friday i think it's so fun. but courtney, as far as winners or losers. nordstrom, i'm going to mention it again it closed down 29% it was a record bad day for that stock. >> yeah. >> i'm wondering as we look for the holiday season, best buy also had a tough week. usually you think electronics are hot this season. how do you think about the winners and losers during this important period >> yeah, definitely, sarah, just like when we were talking about the tariffs, dealing with these external pressures are always going to be easier if you are a bigger retailer. if are you a target, walmart, costco, you can charter your own ship, you will be in better shape. it's not to say it's definitely 100% fool proof theory look at nordstrom verse macy's macy's seems to be doing better than nordstrom did it's coming down getting the right inventory at the right

time in the right places everybody is dealing with the same external factors. who can manage those the best, that's who wins. i do think the sell-off in best buy seems to be overdone from what the analysts are looking at and how they really analyze the quarter. it seems to be more about possible fear of waning demand for consumer electronics than actually what those results laid out and the guidance was very wide ranging, because of some of that conservatism. >> i would imagine, court, if, in fact, there is a little more energy of people wanting to get back if stores on black friday, maybe this idea if people don't know if there will be enough of everything for the entire holiday season it may be another motivation to get there. is it going to be the case where things get depleted on the first weekend here >> yeah. i think that's a great point, mike i think there are probably some shoppers that want the reassurance of seeing that product in person, knowing that

there won't be a heart issage of that red sweatner a size 12 if it's there on the shelf. you can buy it you are not ordering online and crossing your fingers. that being said, inventory for the store busters, the best deals on these big weekends are almost always limited. right. this year, it might be even more so so there could be more of an emphasis for those folks that have particular items or prices that they're shopping for. that could be a bigger reason to get in store yes, i don't expect inventory will be deep on anything, especially those door busters. >> courtney, reagan, thank you a busy one for you we appreciate it don't miss a special edition of "closing bell" noon eastern. the market closes early 1:00 p.m. eastern time. we'll be here 12:00 to 2:00 as we are earlier that's another reason people were looking at today's spending number, which was really good, saying maybe it was a little holiday shopping brigg forward,

everybody is so scared >> a lot of attention when it comes to retailer's comp saechlts so far those times are okay but this market has been unsure about how much to extrapolate from the recent strength >> that is going to do it for us mike, thank you very much for "closing bell. happy thanksgiving, we are thankful for you, our audience "fast money" begins right now. >> live from the market site in new york's time or scare tonight our lineup on "fast" the countdown is on. a mere 30 shopping days left until christmas and the buying bonanza kicks off in hours as black friday gets under way. we'll break down the holiday season plus a big bet on bitcoin, tom lee calling for prices to nearly double by the end of this year why he sees a big breakout building later, bring out the fancy silver ware, thanksgiving, traders are serving up a