strength in that consumer. today and a lot of really great good drivers, that should drive this market forward. thank you, both. >> thank you. >> thank you well, what a black friday or what a way to wake everyone up make sure you join us next week. right now it's time for "squawk on the street. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber along with morgan brennan and mike santoli. jim and carl have the morning off. let's look at the futures on a shortened trading day, and today is typically about retail, but not so much. that market action is being pushed by renewed fears of covid. in fact a new covid variant from south africa, partial that's been concerned scientists, because it does have a high

number of mutations. there's also been a dramatic spike in infections in that country from a very low level, but enough at least to concern global markets, as you're seeing there here the nikkei has also sold off europe as well we have a lot of questions whether vaccines will work against this new variant as well as they have against others, and of course other questions involving how infectious it is but the market is not asking questions. the market is just saying, okay, push the covid trade button. >> that's exactly what it is kind of an automated reflex, an understandable one, given the way the market was leaning you remember the last couple weeks, is the economic reaction sell rating, the global inflation/reflation trade was the story. everyone will have to push back. all we were talking about is how weak all the winners were, really getting jettisoned, and

some of the longer term speculative growth stocks. so in every way you would have thought you were correctly positioned two days ago was the wrong one if in fact we're going to have another covid growth scare. that's the way it is essentially investors, to the extents they were trying to lean the other way kind of walked into this punch a bit, which might mean it's an exaggerated spojs at the open, which might mean we just don't know exactly what the clean read is on assessing this risk. i think one of the things to keep in mind here, morgan, the market kind of loses its pr presciench in this i more about let's reduce the risk in the interim. >> and this happens on a trading day where you have shortened

hours, but typically lower volumes to begin with. but in many ways over the past 20 months, what we are seeing play out is dare i say the pandemic playbook. stocks are lower, actually a pretty dramatic reversal in the bond market. it was just wednesday we saw the fed minutes indicating a more hawkish tone crude is lower, the dollar weakening, bitcoin lower, the vix is spiking this morning. we were showing it before, but its the so-called stay-at-home stocks that have been hit hard the past few weeks netflix is higher, docusign is higher, that are jumping this morning, whether it's the cruise lines or expedia, booking, the casinos. also boeing is doing smun like 6.5% right now, under pretty

severe pressure. >> your point is a good one, a real lack of liquidity even though europe doesn't have a holiday, things are very quiet there, too it is a generally quiet day in which you will see perhaps moves that are therefore outsized. mike, it is important, peloton, again, the concern has been a lack of growth with these high multiple companies not just them, but many other software-related companies that we were talking about earlier in the week that aren't necessarily focused on the covid economy, so to speak, as a peloton was. >> you can see what today's bounce will look like on the chart, right >> right. >> it's like, let's not get too

negative on these things that may have a second act. i don't think it's the market saying, now we know -- i think there's a very high threshold for lots of restrictions being added back we don't know how things will perform. it's much more about the market in its tactical way getting caught on the wrong foot, and let's take the week to figure this out also, people have been buying dips in some of the popular stocks in an aggressive way on the retail side. i want to see how it plays out throughout the day if you get people decide this is an opportunity here because, everybody, again, nothing says that the upward bias in the fourth quarter has been completely, you know, canceled at this point. >> that point is interesting, too. some of the biggest movers are the covid-19 stocks, your phiers

and modernas, and the like there is question marks against this new potential variant they're moving higher, and actually regeneron is higher, too. even though there's questions about what antibody therapies will look like versus they variant, as well as you see it continue to spread presumably here pfizer or biontech, talking about more data, newer vaccines against this variant in the next couple -- in the next cup many peeks that demand continues to -- >> even if it isn't necessarily this variant, we certainly hope it is now it brings to the foreconceivably we're going to

deal with variants, and that would continue to and let ate not forget the oral antivirals which will likely be available we'll get to the news from merck today, involving the peer review, but also the pfizer oral antiviral. those may be what we rely on to stop this thing, at least from top it from spreading quickly. whether it is this variant or on down the road. jim cramer, not here, but never far from our hearts and minds. we want your thoughts on this market action that will begin about 23 minute from now >> first, david, we have to hope we have the antivirals, because this is something that is already in the bag in some places i feel like, once again, if

everybody would be vaccinated, this wouldn't keep occurring, but we obviously are still not doing the job making sure that everybody is vaccinated. this is just going to be one more and there will be another and another. it has to be eradicated, and we're not doing that there's one in belgium, one in bots botswana i can't by sure that it won't. >> though it's important, jim rgets to point out, and we'll hear from meg tirrell shortly, there's very little we know. there's always concerns about its ability to evade vaccines on there's a higher rate of transmissibility with this virus versus the delta, but we don't have the answers at all. >> no. the one thing i do trust, the

scientists if pfizer says they can do something -- we'll hear in moderna today, then i'm confident we'll be able to -- and work -- certainly not -- i just think that the scientists are the people i trust if the scientists tell me they think they can get something, i'm going to be with them. i was reading dr. toepel, he said this is moving fast, we don't know a lot about it, and we hope for the best when i read that, i think, is that the clarion call to buy the stock of a -- company? no i can understand why pfizer shares would certainly go up, but i'm reluctant to say this is the time to buy a retailer or a cruise ship company. there will be people who are

much more risk-averse than you and i, and refuse to believe the scientists can get this under control. so not a buying option >> do you think some of these moves -- and we're looking at the cruise lines, all almost down 10% -- and we haven't begun trading yesterday. do you think they see moves are justified? >> i think there's people who recognize that when we first heard that delta was going to be bad, if they had sold these stocks, they would have done better if they had held onto them i think you have to buy something, buy something with a great balance sheet with a buyback. >> jim, it's morgan. how real is the risk of potential lockdowns in this country?

we're seeing in overtther parts the world that maybe that wouldn't be the case. >> well, i'm going to say we're not going to have them we're not going to have them in the end every time it looks like it's getting grimmer, we get a new group of people who get the shot there is going to be real imperative to get the booster. obviously we see some real limited -- let's say we see a big decline in the -- i don't see any lockdown here. i think our country is getting better and better and better, but at the same time, unless we -- i don't want to say we should not have travel from europe, but europe's got to get it together. europeis way behind us now after being ahead of us. certain countries just will not take the vaccine i don't know, morgan, i don't want to be anything in travel

related. >> it's kind of incredible what we've seen with energy stocks, too. some of the biggest movers to the down side and it was earlier this week from the president that the spr was going to release barrels of oil in a coordinated fashion. and now finally you're seeing brent trading below $80 a barrel has this changed that rapidly? >> chevron will be able to pay its 5% dividend, no matter what. oil will not go back that would be i'm try to go distinguish between my being concerned about

what happens and i would rather buy from those people on monday than buy from them today. >> jim, finally for me, when it's you and me at the desk, we talk about the key to the market there anything in particular you would keep on when trading starts i have my investment club and was going back and forth with my brain trust, amazon is key to the market again it probably will go up a big deal. >> try to have a day off, will you do that for me i notice it's impossible to ask you for that, but -- >> the number of tasks that i have that my wife gave me before i got the phone call from our

executive producer says i can take the day off from work, but now from housework i would rather be at work, david. it will be so much better than the dishes the dishes. >> we were literally just talking about. the dishes, they never end they never end >> anyway let other panic. we'll profit monday. let others panic today do not panic all righty >> all right talk to you later. >> thank you, bye-bye. we're going to take a quick break. you see futures will be down sharply. trading about 15 minute from now. we'll have a lot more "squawk on the street" for you. we are at the new york stock exchange, and we've got a lot more, straight ahead alright, here we go, miller in motion.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." let's bring in our meg tirrell with the latest on this new covid variant and the fears that are cropping up there. hi, meg. >> hey, morgan this is a variant that's been detected very early by genet c icesists doing work there. it has more than 30 mutations to the spike protein, which is the

key protein the vaccines target, which allows the virus to infect cells. they call it an unusual consist laze some of which are known and potentially give the virus to say more transmissible and potentially evade our vaccines and prior immunity from infection. that is still being figured out. in a press conference yesterday, south african researchers showed how quickly this variant has taken over in south africa they had a very dangerous third wave from the delta variant. that was in the red there. can you see this blue spike there. that's the new variant b.1.1.529 b.1.1.529. if you look at the total number of cases we are seeing in south africa right now, it's still very, very small it's a tiny uptick at the bottom

of that chart. this is very early days. the w.h.o. should be giving more guidance how concerning it looks to them. it could be a few weeks to get more information about it. in terms of the vaccine makers moderna's ceo tells you they have shown before they can develop new vaccines the question of the timing includes cha regulatory process is required will there be clinical safety follow-up, and manufacturing new doses would also take a few months biontech has pointed out they have leapt into action as well they expect more data from the lab tests within two weeks they latest they have shown they can adapt the vaccine within six weeks and ship within 100 days the scientific community is

certainly alarmed about the number of mutations here and what's known about them, but they do emphasize it is very, very early days at this point, guys. >> meg, given the fact it is very, very early days, we know that it's potential very transm transmissible, as you just laid out. how long until you start to see data on the severity of this variant, and whether it's something that leads to more hospitalizations and deaths or something people with manage through more successfully. >> that has taken time in previous variants to really tease out. what's really difficult is when you have such a more contagious variant, more people are going to get it, so more people are going to go to the hospital, just the percentage of people, regardless of whether it's actually more severe, so it can be difficult to tell we don't have any information about whether it's more severe

or potentially less severe at this point all of that will be looked at very closely we did hear from the ministry of health yesterday, they are worried about their healthcare system being overwhelmed, and then, of course, that proportion that does get hospitalized it's concerning even if it's more transmissible >> meg, it's the point in the conversation where i bring up the oral antivirals, but i think it's important to do so. pfizer and merck, we got new data from merck that showed us they continue the trial for which they said submitted the interim it seems quite effective from people from dying panel meeting this week, but these don't act on the spike proteins, so their importance can't be underestimated, i would

imagine, when we see variants like the one out of the south africa >> one of the beauties is that they seem to be very broadly active, ace cross multibalance viruses, not just sars co-v-2. we need more information about this, but that's what i'm hear from these experts as well the merck documents from the fda have posted today. the efficacy drove to 30% from about 489% tess interim look it really looked like an improvement in people who got counted were in the placebo trial, they did better in the second half of the trial than the people in the first half of the trial. so from the fda documents, it looks like the fda is leaning toward clearing this, and the question is really what

population is appropriate. they asked specifically about pregnant women, and the risk that a multiple peer review could lead, and they want to know how broadly it should be uses, and people who are vaccinated all of that will be discussed on tuesday. >> meg, thank you for breaking down everything we know, and reminding us what we don't know yet. take a look at the futures right now. they are showing pretty deep premarket losses the nasdaq said to be a bit of an outperformer which often happens. more "squawk on the street" when we return. ♪ ♪ well would you look at that? ♪ ♪ jerry, you've got to see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks ...it gets a little old. ugh. i really should be retired by now.

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let's get a look at the big tech stocks this morning modest losses, a little more than 1% for alphabet, apple, meta, though amazon up almost 1% on this black friday the broad market taking its toll on some of the largest index stocks joining us is jim souva, and tom forte. good morning to you both jim, obviously a day like today, the biggest stocks will get caught up in the flow of what the market is doing. what's your sense of what's happening with the country and how that's feeding into how investors are approaching the stock 1234. >> great to see you. everyone loves a sale.

we're getting it today with the external influence being covid with apple, we expect the sales to be tip year over year again, they continue to grow, both on the hardware products, such as iphone, airpods, airtags, lots of different things, as well as their services we expect technology to lead we see this sale today as an oppor opportunity. >> tom, i don't know that there's a lot of uncertainly around the ultimate demand for the products a lot of talk about just being backed up on the supply front will cause some sales this

quarter, and is that already in the stock? >> that's a great question, mike the way i think about it, when they report in the second quarter, they indicated they had ha $6 million hit in that revenue they think the impact will be more than 6 billion. that's essentially six lost days of sales i do think, though, that demand is very strong if you think about 2021 as potentially the year of a digital holiday, with consumers unable to buy physical products, apple has a ton of service, and a very large base it's black friday, traditionally a day of sales for consumers. you're looking at the arrows for so many stocks, as we count down to the open here in about a minute and a half.

are there sales to be had in your coverage universe on a daily as well? >> there are, morgan people like sales for shopping outside today, as well as online, but when you look at the stock market, those with experience, we don't believe this is a catastrophic event we believe the fears will be bigger than the actual reality we see this as a buying opportunity. we definitely have a buy rating on apple, and on a company like key sights as well as dell consumers are spending, as well as corporations, as employees start to return back to the office. >> we view technology, and the entire sector will see as sales

today, as an opportunity to look back and say, that was a good decision >> guys, stand by for a second [ bell ringing ] . here at the big board, american express celebrating its annual small business saturday nbc, now there's synergy, huh? >> mike has more questions. >> tom, i guess the question here is, to what degree do you view these megacap tech stocks as actually responding to what's going on in the business you're seeing all of a sudden

premarket coming in and just buying them. >> i get that's an opportunity where would you say there is the opportunity for a catch-up trade, if there is going to be one? oy think the won't opportunities would be overstock and roku. >> overstock has done an amazing job, to the extent that there's a spike in the virus and consumers are once again nesting, i think that serving well for overstock roku, even if there's supply chain challenges, they should bet get -- i think the pullback makes it incredibly attractive

right now. you have the dow down 818 points we haven't seen the dow fall by this much since mid july the nasdaq is down almost 1% as well tom, just to wrap all of this up, the squall stay-at-home stocks, the tech nalgts that was beneficiaries, we're seeing these bounces now, but of course have sold off so dramatically in recent weeks, would you expect this to be sustained like overstock, like eithery, roku, et cetera.

>> tom, thanks very much we will see how the day plays out here obviously promounced to the down side in terms of the index the s&p actually right now, though, is right at, you know, a low of a couple weeks ago. it's really just the -- you have essentially 90% of all stocks are down so that's kind of the first flush lower, as i was saying before, the market got itself in a position to be most vulnerable to this time of surprise, where potential new covid threat actually pulling forward

expectations, giving back some of those expectations. lots of stocks are down even when the index was up. we talked about they were kind of whipsawed, playing for risky stocks to get you higher >> there are many hedge funds today. those don't move around as much, mike, and those marks have

benefited the hedge funds enormously obviously when you say that broadly, that's hard to do the market is making -- certainly it looks moderna certainly on the expectation there may be alterations to the current vaccine, if even this does not prop to be any more transmissible or virulent than other variants this was a high of 500 at one point the market value eclipsed that of merck >> it's so true. health dare -- moderna is leading, pfizer is higher. there's quite a number of names

here, all potential levered to the possibility of this new delta variant, what that can mean in terms of demand for some of these companies, but it does speak to, mike, more broadly this playbook we've been saying play out some of these high-flying names that ran up aggressively on expectations whether maybe it's some of the tech names already coming off misthose highs, and of course bouncing today >> until it's plochb wrong,i not going to change. i don't think it necessarily should things like the cruise lines getting hit the hardest today, they really have traded as just kind of real-time sentiment measures of what people think,

the balance sheets are kind of messy, they have raised a lot of debts in equities. it really isup, you know, more or less travel expected on today's headline that make sense, we're getting a bit of a bit in here to kind of have people look for whether there's been some babies thrown out with the bathwater >> the banks are down more than the broader market as well, i guess, with the prospect of lower rates impacting there. >> yeah, there's the -- there's no questioning being asked as much as decisions being made

to the extent people are on this art terrible clock i always like to point out, you know, when prices go down, they also go back in time >> on the first of this month, that's just to keep in mind what we're doing is surrendering a bit of the november rally in the broad market, and for the ten-year treasury used, you know, that was a little over a week ago it's not to say this isn't a dramatic move today, it's to say we're kind of surrendering a lot of the territory that was built up in a relatively short period of time. i think there's questions about exactly how much conviction there was in this market,

because of the rapid sector shifts, and people didn't know how to play it. >> and a lack of breadth we talked about as well >> small cap stocks, and now retracing again. so that's a good illustration. >> you almost got rick santelli pointing to the rebalancing, noting that that's exaggerating the move, at least in the bond markets, according to the note he sent out this morning the s&p is up 23.5% to day you kind of wonder, though, what does it do to the santa claus rally? >> it could reload usually when you haven't gotten

that year-inderally, it's because when the fed has been perceived as being too tight for the economy. i'm not sure we're in that zone at the moment, but it's worth asking there's a lot of house money in this market, and it's kind of being given away you look at the ev stocks, for example, not much of a move, but rivian and lucid are down more so, you know, you see the fast money kind of finding that, it was in for a trade, not for an investment in these cases. >> we are seeing some travel restrictions put in place, europe and some other countries, in terms of travel between south africa and those destinations. here is what dr. fauci had to say. >> the new variant that is now in south africa, it has some

mutations that are raising some concern, particularly with regard to possibly transmissibility increase and possibly evasion of immune responsibility it seems to be -- they're seeing it's a bit more widespread in south africa that much originally felt. so it's in a fluid motion. we're finding more about it, and something we're learning more and more about >> again, that's the point we've been making all morning. there's simply much we don't know what we have learned from the past is not to ask too many questions initially. delta, early on, you could have asked the same questions we have seen the impact of that, not to mention the beginning of

the pandemic as well, in let's call it february oar so. 2020. >> it comes when you've already had anxiety about the current surge of delta in europe, a this sense of, are we going to have to pull in our optimism about global growth for the winter i think we're almost stepping back to neutral corners, i would call it, that you don't have enough information to make the big bets, and reduce your risk level. against, 4630s, we'll see if the market did hang around in that area. joining us is barry bannister. thanks for being with us this morning. mike just talked about it,

neutral corners. how do you see the sell-off playing out this morning >> think back to 2018, the low was put in on christmas eve. i do consider that this variant is interesting. it does have a spike protein mutation that makes it significantly worse than delta, beta, mu, lambda and other variants i have felt for a while these a seasonal endemic mutating virus, every year get a tweaked vaccine like the flu, and learn to live with it and invest with it.

>> i there buying opportunities here especially given there's a lot of uncertainty and question marks. >> you know, the conversation seems to center around drugmakers, but one of the positives is healthcare services there's virtually no it does article that that's something to consider but weaver concerning of the market, one is the inflation reasons is joined that the fed could tighten and tilt more hawkish. we have a tightening of global liquid weakness and cyclical growth by the first quarter, and the tightening that china already did.

i think geopolitics is in some bull market in terms of risks. >> you don't sound very upbeat looking into the new year. what does this do to the fed tightening timetable you've seen more volatility in other parts of the world you're seeing dozens of countries, for example, putting hold on travel from southern african countries, for example what does that do to the fed's ability to move forward? i ask that, on the other side of that, if you do see lockdowns, that's only going to exacerbate supply chain issues as well. >> correct

it's not just monetary policy, though, remember, it's also fiscal policy. one of the things that the market may be thinking about now is this could delay or reduce some of the build back better agenda spending. we need to keep some powder dries for contingencies just like this. it delays further the fiscal, which is working in conjunction with monetary to provide all the stimulus to the market. >> you know, barry, we have to obviously kind of make a bunch of assumptions as to how this plays to try to decide what it means, for example, for things like inflation i do wonder if we should watch the market for signals that it thinking that perhaps there could be supply issue that is persist because of this. for example, if you have countries with zero-tolerance policies on covid and all of a

sudden we're talking about re-closing the factors that had started up again the idea that inflation has become somewhat disconnected from the underlying growth, it's much more of a supply thing. >> i remember decades ago going to a class with smith barney technician alan shaw he described how markets tend to move three ways up or three ways down so we've had a big wave, yes, driven by nrpg, durable and nondurable goods the next year, inflation may moderate a bit, but to a higher low in terms of the prem wages occurring before productivity, and i'm pretty convinced that rents of all sorts will go up, with the active supplies.

all of this means the inflation will settle in above the fed's target it needs to wrap up this qe fairly quickly. >> energy stocks are the worst performers in the s&p this morning. >> very much. >> are they a buy at this level? >> no. no, ever since the glom financial crisis, energy moves exactly opposite the dollar. the dollar receives this flight to saved bid, and the first large really only importance -- strengthening the dollar is just kryptonite for oil. >> barry bannister, thank you for joining us on this friday. >> thank you. the s&p is down 1.75%, 4618,

so holding above the 4600 level, that you mentioned earlier, mike the dow is down 897 points. we're on the pace for large losses for the week now. >> yeah, if you look at the s&p 500 on the equal-weighted basis, so it diminishing the effect, it's down 2% straight, so that's pretty much what we're doing, skimming 2% off this market, getting us back to where we traded a couple weeks ago. we are softening up on the u.s. dollar indetect here, too. as we expect them to go lower that maybe the fed wouldn't be as higher. some of the other stories we're following outside the broader losses in the market, concern about the latest covid virus. china's share of didi are down,

listed hire, remember, not covering itself in glories in terms of the underwriters' decision to bring this thing public new regulations for the

not a whole lot of the year to date losses. let's get to the cnbc headquarters >> see, mike, much of the risk aversion trade playing out in markets has hit the crypto markets and for many reasons but one has been the motion that, for the past several months, there's been a growing hedge. the notion that if you can have regime of possibly higher inflation down the line, could crypto currency be a way for you

to insure yourself against some of the particular threats? that's been part of the story for the rise in bitcoin to the record high prices if the inflation threat is not that great because of a new variant for covid. then some of the narrative goes away that's part of the story behind why you're seeing the weakness by the way, that's off session lows we've seen a bit of a bounce for bit drz coin ether prices down right now. of the other altcoins, so to speak, are falling as well we're 20% or so below the record highs. if you take a look at the charlt for bitcoin, what you will see the recent volatility pulled us down

what's more important for some traders who use technical patterns and currencies like bitcoin and everything else. 56,300 was the 50-day average price of bit coin or thereabouts. weevlg fallen below that so, some will say that's a statistically significant level. you have to get to 48,700 per coin before you get to another level, which is the 200-day average price and the stocks that form the ecosystem around it coin base is down two and a quarter persents robinhood down and paypal is up on the day. square and paypal have been underperformers as of late microstrategy, down roughly 4% right now. some of the names that we'll

keep an eye on as the crypto currency trade starts to evolve. >> thank you let's goat to courtney reagan, who's looking at the retail names getting slammed >> today is still forecast to be the biggest in-store shopping day of the year. the big question is will it hold up investors are decidedly negative on the ability to weather another variant storm today. and over the last five years, black friday has been rather unremarkable never up or down more than a percent. this move is unusual for today among the retailers underperforming, look at the department store and mall-based store names. nordstrom down 7%, macy's off 6% and higher end names with significant international and names consumers that shop there

have a little bit more sensitivity to market sell offs. look at capri holding. and this morning, many shoppers appear to be so far un-effected by the new variant the new ceo just after the door opened and the door busters kicked off >> our business is quite strong. so, we're encouraged by the traffic we're seeing >> it's all too familiar for us and we're going to be ready for the next wave, whatever it is. >> right up 67% from last year. nintendo switch number one and playstation 5. they're focussed on stock and availability, above interest in deals for the play station in particular

89% more than surges, which dominated black friday surges last year. up 5% from last year that is shy of the growth rate but perhaps more shopping will shift online than originally forecast with the news this morning. we have to wait and see. >> a lot of that going on this morning, courtney. but nice to talk a little black friday, which you pointed out we intended to do throughout. joining us now is the retail analyst and good to have you let me start with whether or not the news this morning, concern about the latest variant at all figures into the way you're thinking of retail, whether it's brick and mortar or fully online frrg >> it's great to be here we love curb side pick up, we love omni-enabled retailers. we think they're well positioned

and multicategory as well as offering nm innovative solutions to customers we expect an ethnic black friday as this is a real gift-giving season gifts for you, gifts for me and gifts for others we're noticing low levels of promotions and encouraging traffic. f as we think of the variant, it will be important to own digital refailers and well prepared retailers. and we're thinking of 100% digital retailers, such as my teresa and others as well. >> we came into the season with a lot of concern about the supply chain, what's going to be on shelves where are you in terms of fulfilling what is clearly very strong demand? >> buner one of our top ideas is

macy's they were well prepared for what we're seeing we're also seeing this morning at 5:00 a.m., inventory levels generally better than feared across many categories there are pockets of risks, including women's apparel. there aren't enough leggings and electronics as well. but consumers have money to spend and looking to spoentd as well as accept a degree of price increases. >> looking at the different iterations of coronavirus and covid-19 variants. what is history tell us? the most recent variants, whether delta or what came before it, but have these companies been dented very much with previous variant spreads? >> morgan, the earlier shocks

were more dramatic in terms of traffic. however, retail's had a lot of time to implement safety measures across the store experience, such as curb side pick up and social distancing. the consumer have experienced many different shocks. customers are getting out again. physical store traffic is up vurlss last year and many are doing a great job blending these channels. those are all factors driving what's happening in consumer stocks that being said with today's events, some of the rotation of the more defensive names such as target, walmart and costco make sense. >> very quickly, what would it be if you picked a name? >> we like target and macy's as well >> that was two but very good.

it was short enjoy your black friday. >> seasons greetings happy holidays >> happy holidays. well, good friday morning and welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. and we are live from post nine at the new york stock exchange carl has the morning off. for normally today it would be, as we mentioned before, all about re tail, black -- retail, black friday all the major averages are down. dow's down 890 points. worst day since at least the middle of july s&p down 1.7% and the nasdaq down about 1.1%. >> we're already 30 minutes to the trading session. it's all about the potential impact of the covid variant sending back makers like

moderna, pfizer and others higher while on the flip side travel names continue to see pressure as they weigh lockdowns in the future. and check out the stay-at home names surging. two names nearly 50% offer their high popping this morning. >> moderna shares in particular have 22% here to help us break down the latest moves but in particular the latest fears, based on the how to covid variant, as we look at broader markets meg, there's a lot we don't know but what do we know? >> i'm just hearing from the wo health org -- world health organization many expect it will get the name nu, n-u, the new variant

so, they're just going to issue a statement. meanwhile, there is concern from public health authorities around the world. this was flagged yesterday they've seen an increasing number of cases thing country and identified the variant, which is a constilation of mutations. more than 30 on the spike protein alone. you can see the number of cases in south africa really just started to tick up that shows that we're in the early days of learning about the variant. some have been associated with increased transmiscibility and we've been in tich with the vaccine workers. understanding how quickly they can work on this moderna's ceo says they've done

in it 60 days before and getting it to the clinic the timeline depends on the regulatory process and they say it would take a few months to ramp up manufacturing and have enough doses biontech said before they adapted the vaccine within six weeks and been able to ship initial batches within 100 days. and questions about the aernlt body drigs there's thought that some could be more susceptible for this all of this,outstanding questions that need to be answered there are some folks though who are saying they think there might be an overreaction going on friendship the emphasis from

everyone is get more people vaccinated and boost it that's the best way to fight it right now. >> and given the fact that scientists have been able to find it early, does that give it a soeense it may be easier to control and contain? >> that's the hope we're seeing countries putting a ban on flights first, many say that doesn't work and second, because it's sort of a punish fment to the country that identifies the variant. there's a concern that countries won't raise their hand so quickly when they identify variants early on. what they're saying the best reaction would be is try to vaccinate as many as possible or to boost that could provide the best

protection at this point >> here to help with the dramatic impact. thank you both so much for being here big question i think people are wondering is today the kind of day you would buy the dip or is there too many uncertainties outs there and it would be more proddant to wait and see how it plays out >> i think today you can do nibbling but i think you'll have better opportunities on mondays i think over the weekend, you're going to get investors nervous about this new variant, as you reported, nu i would tend to think you would have better buying opportunity points early next week i do think does offer a reason

to buy more than to bail >> we hit session lows for the dow today. how much do you think that this holiday week known for lower level of volume and limited liquidity, does that factor into some of the largest swings or would you expect this regardless of what day it is? >> first of all, great to be with you black friday, even though it's an unexpected black friday either way, this would have an impact on the market it complicates things somewhat before this news came out the marx hat -- market has risen it's too early to know what all the impacts are. but i think people should have

optimism that we've seen businesses adjust, consumers adapt and record highs i'll be careful about getting two on the strange deal we're seeing today >> it's a point we were discussing in the last hour, that potentially it was poised for a pullback liex this already. i also whunder what you think, given the fact it was another strong quarter, in terms it of prophets and margins, a lot of the forward guidance is not what wall street had been hoping. >> first off, on average, the market rises a little more than 7% from the october low through the end of your close and has done so more than 90% of the time since world war 2

so, with us being up more than 9%, we are ahead of the game and due for some sort of digestion of the game. they put if at the 48 quarter, out of the last 49, where the actual results exceeded estimates. fourth quarter looks like we're up more than 20% and kuchblanies still are reluctsan f -- reluctn for too much and management likes to manage expectations i will say that while valuations have been stretched and for quite some time. they're 30% above the average. >> i should say if interest

rates do not accelerate, we could elevate the valuation. >> i mean t was just wednesday that we got the fed minute indicating a slightly more hawkish viewpoint. what does this do to the entire fed tightening time table? and what is the bond market tolling us on a day where weir r seen on dramatic forces. because of the unsurtdenty, the foed is going to take a more guarded approach i think what we've also learned is the feds will act quickly if they need to, to provide more support if the variant becomes problematic.

we're positive and realistic at the challenges markets are -- we talk about valuations butthem entire gains for the market are all earnings driven the pe has contracted somewhat frarms the fed may have more room and easier as far as their paper, if this continues >> jim cramer was on last hour and says he doesn't expect additional shutdowns in the u.s., at least and anthony fauci was saying moerp information is needed before they halt flights do you think the market is trading in anticipation of there being some sort of economic reaction in terms of shutdowns and greater restrictions in the u.s. >> i think investor are locking

in profits because we're close to the ends of the year and portfolio managers will gets their bens they don't wants to risk that for the remandser of the year. i would tends to say that because we're aproemping the second anniversary, at least a suppressed tv, there's reluctance and rezigsance to that by no means would we see a reverse where we were two years ago. but rather say we're going to do everything we can but not punish the countries for reporting it >> and consumer behavior changes. today is an important test case, being a huge consumer holiday with black friday.

as we hed to a quick break, here's arlook add the road map for the next hour. stocks have their worst day in nungts and investors continue to weigh the potential of more lockdowns aheads >> wreevrg got the latest on that space as crypto goes below 55k. the dow having the worst day since october 28th of 2020

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we're proud to help them help you everyday. welcome back to "squawk on the street." you can see pretty steep declines with american, delta and united down double digits so far in the shortened trading session. research analyst joins us to discuss where things could be headed today if i had bichb talking about fedex and ups, given it's black friday and the beginning of the peek shipping season and a number of countries begin to put travel curbs in place

how sustained could this be in the coming days and weeks? >> it's very frustrating that this keeps happening and obviously the stocks can stay under pregtser all year long they had a peek in march and continue to go down, i think, in parted because of concerns blout the variants what that means for people not traveling or traveling what been map anning is as we get a new variant hopal holds back on their frevl but it team ooze be shorter lives and then people resume travel i think people are pretty sick of it, literally and i think they're wanting to get out and about. and i think you're going to see that happen, especially for the

holidays to your point, the stocks are really taking it on the chin today. >> to your point, u.s. airports on wednesday, over 2.3 million people that sn busiest since before the pandemic took hold in a meaningful way in this country and i think this weekend's supposed to be even bigger, according to tsa official said >> i think so. like i said, i think people are stick of being calleden the carpet and forced to stay home and lock down. they miss their family and they want to see them and not everybody goes home for thanksgiving but they do for christmas. and i think people will travel again, especially if you're straxinated. we were told if we got vaccinated we could travel and then a booster shot.

i personally think this is becoming endemic and i think we're going to have to deal with getting booster shots every year going forward or every six months and maybe over time it gets better but i don't think we can continue to -- i don't think we can continue to see these lockdowns. it frustrates people and engenders bad behavior when they do get toorgtd >> we are also seeing a big slump in crude down at about $71.88 a barrel. is this something that you're also watching and do you expect sustained downward momentum in energy >> yeah. se, we are watching if from from the inflationary side.

because they weren't until today. then we see air fairs coming up next door. we'll keepian eye on that. to your pint, fuel prices are thirty team thriv% of total operating expeenss and prices move up, according to the forward curve, which has been somewhat backward dated over the last six months so, we actually saw better prices in the second half than currently seeing we prefer stable to slightly rising because ownthen airlines don't get to an over capacity situation or cut fairs to simulate demand. demand's been pretty strong and i think -- we think that's going to continue through the end of

the year and probably a slump in january and we should see a ramp up and that should continue, in our view, in the summer months >> a lot of the names you covered. as much as 10% when you look that chart -- i don't know if you have a chance to see it right there. you know the names anyway. what name would you say this is a good opportunity to buy? kr >> i'm staring at the two but it's a different screen and red. i think we're going to have an amazing summer for transatlantic travel we like uniheighted. if you're sunerned ab-- concernd about business travel. so, if people get delayed that

will delay a recovery in business travel, which we're dounl from where we were prepandemic. if you want to focus on the domestic focussed airlines, then i would go with airlines like aliegeant, jetblue, spirit, southwest, even united, which is 50% domestic the international airlines are going to have a great 2022 because we think people really want to travel >> i said i was going to get to it what do you think of these names with the peek shipping season upon us? >> normally i would say peek so if we head to the varyntd and it's persistent , people will

revurtd to ordering on lionel. >> thank you thanks, morgan well, aren't too many names in the so-called green this morning. but check out the top gainers, let by so meanie of the stay-at-home or a new covid variant. adding almost a quarter of the market value so far in less than an hour of trading not a great deal of liquidity and we're seeing outside moves here

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welcome back it's black friday for retail stocks and we're not just talking about the holiday. >> well, so far there appears to be quite a jux tuposition.

it's 3% today. but it's on pace for its worse day siin september and it's been overwhelmingly positive up more than 8% in the month of november among the retailers un underperforming today, macy's, victoria's secret. as well as those more sensitive, nordstrom down 7%. lvmh down. gamestop shares are underperforming. game stop is the top search

retailer associated with door buster deals of all time walmart is 94th down 97% for walmart specifically way fair, chewy also bucking the trends but adobe says thanksgiving day online sales did come in shy of expectations inflation is a concern for many. when you look overall and adobe says the biggest discount is toys apparel discounts of 15% appliances and sporting goods, 9% and electronics, disappoints averaging about 20%. today has been forecast to see 108 million in shop. first reason is deals, seconds

is tradition they lined up for door busters that began just several hours ago from doing what they planned to do. we'll have to wait and see >> nobody's not going to the mall who was planning on going let's start off on the mall as well. our next guest is charter holdings chairman and ceo. com company holds malls. we've had john any number of times to discuss a variety of issues related to covid but give us a sense of your expectations for the malls you operate? >> what i'd liking to specifically speak to is the high-profile shopper it's home to the biggest retailers in the country on luxury chanelle, cartier, things like that

and we've been, year over year, sales growth has been incredible but jewelry's up over 90%. goods up 60% and our ready to wear is up 25%. we had an incredible year. and special majority side because we have a van cleev, harry winston and they're all -- their sales have been exp explosive and retser almost an investment we look forward to a great christmas season as far as supply chain issues, we found people started shopping much earlier the integrated retailers that manufacture their own things and they may get you something in a

week or so, it's been pretgy success on people having their orders fulfilled they're shopping early >> so, there good from you is what i'm hearing any concerns on what you may encounter or the latest covid variant? >> fortunately being in texas and dallas, we don't have mask mandates so, our shopping centers are jam packed went had any issues at all being in texas, when oil is up over $80 a barrel, gives people more money to spend. and out of country buyers have been coming because you can walk in and up. people are able to feel like

you're outside and they're safe and secure we're very optimistic add at the shopper basis. and a number of them handbags, specifically they're limiting people to buying one purse, one belt, one pair of shoes. people were saying i'd like five of the purses and that's built up pent-up demand higher and driven shoppers from other pats of the country >> that's interesting to hear. on a day where you have the new covid variant and headlines around it, just over the past year, did you see --

>> rermember, i'm in dallas, texas. people kind of shrug their shoulders. and i'm in the restaurant business and we serve thousands and thousands every day and our sales are up and restaurant company up 35% we haven't had any issuesadd all and they're all packed but we're lin texas. i don't know if they're regional or mind std. up to this day, this year has been tremendous for thereof scores and restaurants >> i know a few people concerned about coronavirus is and have been there was a story in the journal about how retailers are expected to open more stores than they closed for the first time in 2017 spoelgs given the stuplyupply cs

>> they're opening new stores. i saw the samt article said they're signing 45 weeks unfortunately we got one of them what people want, especially on the high scores, 245i6 wanted to touch and feel frorms so, our centers are very much of a place they won'ted to hangout. and it is something is that if dwrour know foog buy an expensive purse. and the high-end retailers are explaining the other buns, they do neesz t a place. we're seeing that lin our centers a great uptick in demand

for retail >> finally, i think we asked you about this in the past but are you seeing difficulty finding workers, particularly in the restaurant side of your business >> we just opened a new restaurant three weeks ago and had to hire 120 people to go there. the pay has gone up, from 12/13 bucks an hour to $20 an hour that's a challenge on the other lighter side, we're seeing a lot them come from new york because they got an opportunity to work. there has been an influx of new workers as well. the supply chain are product types and you're going to see prices go up, probably by the

ends of december andthat's got to be absorbed by the consumer. >> that have a different dish cushion. we'll leave it there for now thank you. >> 30 bucks an hour. up from 13 pretty big number. contessa >> hello here's what'sl happening this hour they're holding a special session that has been detected in south africa. they say it's spreading rapidly. they say it's concerning because of the number of mewizations and whether the vaexeen said will protect against this particular variant. they've been ordered by a number of nations, including france,

israel and hong kong, calling for a suspension of air travel in places where the new variant been 61 srmed. making it the first detective in europe, including the closing of night clubs and closing hours for restaurant lacks like it's friday here morning. >> we're looking for names in the yeen company saying the pzr tests will detecting the new variant stay with us i think you're going to like it here. umm, why is everyone... throwing things at me? look, as cfo it's my job to be ready for whatever's next. that's why i have my finance team, randomly hurl things at me. it's also why we use workday.

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welcome back markets continuing to sell off,

though off the lows of the morning. keep in mind this is a shortened trading day and of course we tends to see thinner volumes on a day like today in thetheless, the dow is down for more on reaction to what we're seeing today art cashin is joining us now it's always great to have you on the phone. just a to help us parse through some of the trading activity we're seeing and make sense of it from the historical perspective. can we say the santa clause rally is out of the way? >> we've had to put santa clause on a milk box but he tends to come back. what you're seeing i think is a minor sell, stop washout it's a holiday weekend for a lot of people and despite what you hear about smart algorithms, the only way to protect yourself

technic wlae is put a stop order in meaning, if the market goes down or the stockia own goes down, you want to sell because it's done technical damage. when we have one of the sell, stop washouts, professionals don't buy on the first sell off because you'll be preventing stocks from reaching the low level that will trigger the lower stops. they tend to let the market wash out and play into the second and/or third rollover. i think that's where we are now. if you don't make another low, then i think you'll see some buying going to the close. the people whool waited out the sell stops would never come in >> are there certain key technical levels you're

watching >> i step away on a day like this because i collective power of that, it tends to hit the other thing i want to say is this new variant, while it's disturbing, we're not -- it's not coming in a vacuum let's not forget austria is having a massive lockdown. this is before the new variant and that's why the market is as nervous as it is that having been said, i would watch company action between now and noon and if they roll over, don't make a lower low, then extect barl bargain hunting to ms pretty clear trejd and themes. every time there is concerning coronavirus news

what do you make of that in terms of investors is this time to be more of a stock picker and stay at home names seeing positive today >> i think what you're seeing a collective regional reaction if the mutation is as effective as they're afraid of and it is resistant to the vaccines, the economies are going to slow down therefore, we're going to need less oil and we'll see what's going on another point that's been brought up on your program earlier, that's important is if it does accelerate, it's going to change the whole fed tapering thing and that will get put on hold i think we've got an awful lot

of stuff coming up here. i think right after christmas, we're going to find out how transitory inflation was when things come after the buyers had tried to get what they wanted. we may wind up with surplus product as those ships get unloaded after christmas a lot of things to look at here. >> we talked about it before but on a day like today, you touched on it where you have the 10-year yielding 1.054%. and it comes in a week there's been more commentary i mean, are stocks still taking their cue from bonds >> well, they are and in the long run what's happening here is, as i

said, just a new variant of the virus is going to cause some problems, the fed is going to have to rethink the tapering now, we don't know how much that is but that's what you're seeing reflected in the yields coming back down and the idea that the inflationary pressure will not appear as great. i will tell you the yield on the 10-year, if you get between 165 and 170, it makes it dangerous since you are in the vacuum variant, it's having a finer fen bilgs afengtd fekd >> thanks for joining us today >> my pleasure now it's time for our etf spotlight.

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welcome back cr cryptocurr cryptocurrency plunging as well. what's actually driving it >> crypto sell off is similar to what's happening in tech right now. it's a knee-jerk reaction away from the higher growth, riskier assets dropping as low as $53,000 bitcoin off from 20% of the all-time it hit earlier in november since january up more than 80% and bitcoin is holding up better

than some of the other koinls. coins. all in red and all this, stemming from the macro news around the covid variant. bitcoin tends to suffer whathey want to reduce high risk, and move into treasuries the inflation and safe haven narrative around bitcoin haven't taken off so far as a result, there are more algorithms trading bitcoin, especially sharp that can pour fuel on a lot of the moves. and finally it's a $2.2 billion ecwety level >> a lot of indication surrounding the crypto sector today.

for moreen the space, let's bring in voyager digital steven. i can't tell you the number of memes and crypto being the subject of conversation. table today i think a lot of so-called cousins that will be talking about it will be a little disappointed in today's moves hitting bear market territory. what do you think is behind the move and do you think it is sustainable? >> look, i think, thank you for having me. i think it is as kate said a knee jerk reaction to what's going on in the market by that, we're seeing more money come into the platform today, because i think this is just a short term move. we're obviously bullish on crypto, but i think it is a short term knee jerk reaction to what's going on in the market. we're seeing more and more money piling into buying today. >> you're seeing more money pile

into buying, yet bitcoin is down 7.7% ether down almost 10% today. where are they putting that money to work? >> we're seeing some come into the dips that money is coming into the platform they're coming in and buying dips long term, these assets are very solid, they're an opportunity to enter this space i know we had those conversations over thanksgiving dinner about crypto. there's an opportunity now on the dip for people to come in, same way as the equity market. there's an opportunity to enter the space. >> stephen, in september we saw a down draft in crypto, down draft in other markets as well one of the reasons was because it was seen as an instrument of leverage as we saw that flush out happen, is that still the case where crypto currency is concerned or

bitcoin, perhaps you have less retail activity than you did a couple months ago, is that no longer a narrative >> well, there is definitely leverage in the system and leverage on the institutional side people are buying on no leverage therefore, there are more and more retail customers coming into the platform like six weeks ago when the market dropped as well, it rebounded we'll see a rebound. it will take time. it is a volatile asset, something only around a few years and trying to establish itself as that happens, we have less and less volatility. seeing the same in the traditional markets with tremendous volatility. this is an asset, more people are coming in and expanding the portfolio into crypto. there's thanksgiving dinner conversations. we'll have people put some portion of the portfolio into crypto it is a long term hold here. we're excited about what's the future for crypto and this is again another opportunity for people to enter the space.

>> let's talk about the future we had the discussion with you before on the show around store of value versus mechanism of payments you recently launched voyager debit card, that's in focus on a day like today, black friday, where customers get more creative with how they pay for goods. what are your expectations >> look, we have had tremendous amount of signups, just about ready to launch, in preregistration stated over 20% of customers have signed up for the debit card on that note, we bought a payment company in europe that has seen a lot of activity as people are getting ready to purchase through crypto as we enter the holiday season we're seeing that activity as well we have the debit card which people will be able to spend using us d.c. stable point, and

also payment rails are being used extensively as well. >> interesting i was going to ask how that translated into the holiday season how are you seeing people spend crypto in light of what we're seeing with regard to the holidays, inflated prices, things like that >> well, it is really interesting. we acquired that company in august with anticipation that more and more people will spend crypto cus customers made significant gains, 80% since beginning of the year those who made some gains are using some gains to buy holiday gifts, actually go out and shop the first time didn't get that opportunity last year people are out shopping, using crypto, that's appreciated, they have more buying power they created some wealth since last year. they're using that to make goods and using crypto as the asset to do that. >> i think there was nft of macy's thanksgiving day parade

that's one way to spend it thank you for joining us happy holidays >> you too thank you. more on today's sell off is still ahead as the major averages are all firmly in the red on a shortened trading day dow down 2.5%. the s&p 500, 46. nasdaq down 1.75%. and wti crude is down 10%. having its worst day of the year, breaking below 70 bucks a barrel as you can see, 69.70 brent is moving lower as well. don't go anywhere. we're backft ts ea aerhibrk.

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airlines, oil and more selling off on covid variant concerns what about casinos contessa brewer has a check on the space for us hey, contessa. >> hey there, leslie casinos, especially those with mccow exposure are hit hardest look at melco.

they have been down 14%. las vegas sands off by 8%, wynn resorts off by 8.5%. mgm which relies on domestic u.s. business, still off almost 5% why does it matter hong kong has new cases of the new variant of coronavirus, brought in from a passenger from south africa china has a zero tolerance policy towards infections and the border hasn't reopened there were optimistic signals earlier this week that cross border visits may resume before end of the year. and prepandemic, tourists from hong kong made up 20% of overall visits this is a crucial source of visitation, but the new variant may throw a wrench in the works. even the optimistic analysts warned uncertainty and volatility remain constant for international gaming stocks here it is not just u.s. casinos,

we're seeing caesars off, and penn down as well. >> contessa brewer, thank you. stocks broadly lower, treasury yields lower, crude lower, dollar weaker, the vic is spiking. that does it for us, leslie. thanks for being with us tech check starts now. we are seeing a major sell off to end the week. good friday morning. i am deirdre best. carla and john have the morning off. red on the screen. new covid variant sends stocks tumbling travel names, airlines, cruises, hotels are getting crushed