>> new name there. and amy? >> okay, super contrarian but i'm going to go with stitch fix. the stock is down from over 100 to less than 20. $2 billion market cap now. execution issues but we think there's value there. >> thank you, amy. that does it for "halftime." "the exchange" begins now. i'll see you on "fast money," 5:00 p.m. tonight. >> thank you, brian. we'll see you soon hi, everybody, i'll kelly evans. here's what's ahead this hour. stocks are on track for some pretty big weekly gains despite the biggest jump in inflation in nearly 40 years. despite all the nasty-sounding headlines, bond yields are moving lower and bonds might be slugging it off, but restaurants are not we'll look at who's feeling the most inflation pain and which stocks are best positioned to weather the storm. and three key names reporting next week. stay tuned, maybe you can guess

what they are. first, dom chu with today's market. >> what a curious one to your point there. stocks rising, you can maybe make a case for it why are bonds rising as well if inflation is so hot? anyway, we have markets right now in the green they're off their session highs. the dow industrials up one-quarter of 1%. the s&p 500 still below 4700, still 25 points to the upside. that's half of 1%. and 15,569 for the composite, up 50 points, about one-third of 1% so modest moves higher but not bad when you have inflation running at the hottest levels in nearly 40 years. let's talk about those bond yields if you can believe it, those yields are below 1.5%. 1.47 for the 10-year treasury note yield why is it important? because someone is willing to pay a price that gets them 1.47% interest for ten years when

inflation is running at 6 to 7% on an annualized basis some people are trying to figure out why that dynamic is playing out the way that it is certainly something to watch ahead of a big fed interest rate policy meeting next week speaking of inflation, there have been a number of downgrades of southwest airlines over the course of the past couple of days tied mostly to their investor day and some of the outlook issues that they have. southwest is down another 4% today, down 10% for the year it's been a steady decline for the highs. one of the reasons many of these analysts have taken down their view of southwest, kelly, has been because they feel as though southwest is not as equipped as some of its peers in the airline business to withstand some of the inflationary pressures that are going to be at play. so southwest cut to sell today by goldman sachs, the latest guys to do so. we'll see what happens with southwest. i'll send things back over to you. >> dom, thank you very much. now to some new numbers from the cdc on those first cases of

omicron in the u.s what are we learning about them? meg tirrell is standingby with the details. meg? >> hey, kelly. well, the cdc just took a look at 43 of the first cases of this variant in the united states, putting together some of the characteristics that are emerging now, although it is still early days what they found is that 34 of those 43 folks, or almost 80%, were fully vaccinated. of those, 14 were boosted. six people who are infected had prior infections with covid. now, the most common symptoms among these folks were cough, fatigue and congestion or runny nose now, only one of these people was hospitalized and just for two days no deaths have been reported to date from people who have had omicron. the cdc cautioning even if most infections are mild, a highly transmissable variant could result in enough cases to overwhelm health care systems. some data shows us from the uk

shows how quickly it can spread. even though it looks pretty mild and it does look like protection is provided by vaccination against severe disease, this is still a pretty concerning-looking variant at this point. >> thank you very much for those numbers, our meg tirrell. turning back to inflation, prices rising at their fastest pace in nearly 40 years. steve liesman with a closer look at what today's numbers are telling us steve? >> kelly, yeah, the november report underscores that the inflation we have in this country is rising, it's persistent, and it's widespread. the 6.8% headline number just over expectations but marking the highest rate of the consumer price index since 1982 even when you take out food and energy, the core rate is up 4.9% year over year the fastest pace is 1991 and of more interest to the fed if you ask what's going up, the answer is everything, almost everything gas up 18% annually, used car prices 31%, food up 6.4% and

clothing 5%. the rising cost of housing belatedly working into the cpi as are higher wages. the cost of services, ex energy is 3.5%. there could be more to come. many economists see more housing inflation on the way, driving up inflation even if those supply bottlenecks end up clearing. yet markets appear to be braced for this report and maybe even worse. yields fell on the news and stocks rallied there was little change in the outlook for the fed. markets continue to expect the first rate hike in may, a second one in september and you can see a 57% probability of a third one in december. stephen stanley writing what dom chu was saying, aggressive short-term expectations and an exceedingly dovish longer run outlook is likely needed to be reckoned with in 2022. so if inflation remains high in the spring and fails to show signs of easing by summer, the fed could turn more hawkish more

quickly. the question is if markets price that in even sooner. >> they seem to have turned hawkish. it seems like the omicron variant probably the most thing that happens to prices the longer it sticks around we could see inflation pressures lasting. >> you know, kelly, the markets seem to be reacting like a teenager whose parents just said, oh, i'm really going to get mad now to the fed the fed is like, oh, i'm really going to get hawkish and the market is like yeah, yeah, yeah, three rate hikes, bring it on next year. i think it may be time to think about something more severe. we have a question, kelly, i'll give you a preview in our fed survey for next week the question is do you think the fed is going to have to raise rates above neutral in order to get control of inflation i'm really interested in what our respondents think to that

question as to whether or not something like -- whatever the neutral rate is, 2, 2.5%, will the fed have to go above that to control inflation. we don't know that yet but i'm interested in the answer. >> so far it seems like the markets are cheering them on as they tilt to slightly more hawkish. steve, thank you again a big week next week if they accelerate the taper steve liesman covering it all for us today. turning to the market reaction, stocks losing some of their gains and rebounding this afternoon. the dow was up 200 at the open and up 119 now yields have moved lower since the cpi report, the 10-year below 1.5% is the market saying inflation has peaked and will fall or should the signal from bondland just be ignored. i'm going to set michael up here by letting barry get the first response barry, what emphasis do you place on the level of bond yields right now

>> well, as we're looking at it, it's expectations, that's all it is if you look from two years to 30 years, the break-even in terms of inflation is around 2.5%. so that's what everybody has locked in in their brains. if this is the peak in terms of inflation, and it's going to be heading down, then everything is -- it's all smiles and we can go to the bank, as it were if it's not, then i think the fed is going to be taking the punch bowl away and that could cause some real problems. >> i want to turn to you on that, michael. you're our bonds, our rates guru what would you say are the levels to watch here on the 10-year. >> kelly, it's interesting i think if you get decent upside next week after the fed it's a telltale sign of 1.65, 1.70. i realize it's a bit of a lift that's a pretty warning signal for the market if liquidity approaches and yield is poor

we think yields will go up pretty gradually it's not going to be a huge jump up but 10, 15, 20 basis points over the course of a month, maybe a bit more down the road, that sort of thing. >> barry, let's talk about some of the places you like home depot, old dominion, names that have had pretty nice years. do you think this can continue >> yes when we're looking at the market and especially in this inflationary environment, you want companies with pricing power so you look at their operating margins or gross profit margins they're also looking for real quality. you're not going to chase things like -- we don't chase the junkie stuff in our golden rainbow fund, those names that we mentioned are in there. what we do try to find are companies with low debt and very solid balance sheets and are not super expensive. those are the keys for right now. those kind of companies in a balanced approach, value growth

both, this is going to be a really volatile market is what we believe this whole thing, this choppiness with interest rates and omicron and everything else, it's going to be very, very rotational so you want to be balanced don't try to put all your money in one area. >> speaking of choppiness, michael, what do you think it would take for the 10-year to go above 2% at this point and what impact would that have across the landscape? >> i think for the fed to demonstrate to the market we're serious about this tightening. steve liesman made an excellent point, whether the market is like a teenager or a young adult, take your pick, but it's waiting for actual evidence that the chairman will take away the punch bowl i think it's an excellent analogy. whether it's faster tapering this week or more likely in our view the fed teeing up rate hikes. so tapering goes through march, april, something like that maybe in the second quarter of the next year, chairman powell says, hey, you know what, this inflation is still here, we're going to hike several times and you all better get ready for it.

it's that kind of thing that we think will push yields up. >> do you think it will be well accepted, michael, for the fed to start raising rates as early as the first, second quarter of next year while the inflation numbers are rapidly receding from -- the whisper number was we were going to get 7%. didn't quite make it and look at the market's reaction. >> right i think the market was teed up for a somewhat higher number but as far as how quickly the fed might hike, we think the second quarter is too soon for an actual hike but at that point jay powell and friends can probably start talking about a hike three, four months after that hike so the market will have to get accustomed to the notion of a fairly short runway between tapering and a hike. i think people have not seen a cycle like this in a long time. >> i appreciate you giving us some ideas for that environment. barry james, michael shoe maker, we appreciate your time. we have a news alert on

insta cart the grocery delivery startup is losing its president after just three months on the job. carolyn everson came from facebook as its advertising chief for more than a decade her departure comes amid an ongoing shake-up at the top that showed the founder and ceo replaced ahead of an expected ipo. coming up, we're looking at another inflationary indicator, lumber prices. they have nearly doubled in less than a month they're still down 40% from their highs. are we out of the woods, and what does it mean for home prices investors continue to watch for any commentary around any rising costs we'll bring you the story on toll, fedex and rivian. as we head to break, take a look at the dow heat map with cisco leading the way. we're back in a moment

>> announcer: this is "the exchange" on cnbc. wondering what actually goes into your multi-vitamin. at new chapter. its innovation organic ingredients and fermentation. fermentation? yes, formulated to help your body really truly absorb the natural goodness. new chapter. wellness well done.

welcome back, everybody. don't look now but lumber prices are soaring again. remember, we started the year around $800 a unit before spiking to record highs in march as lumber became one of the first commodities krumplged by

supply chain issues. they then dropped 75% in three months to $450 but the story didn't end there since that bottom, prices have suddenly surged again, up more than 70% in just the past month to back above $1,000 what is lumber telling us about inflation and the supply chain joining me is kyle little, chief operating officer with sherwood lumber it was lumber winter there for a while. what do you make of the latest breakout >> thank you for having me lumber continues on this wild ride we indicated this was a cycle and it was a cycle that was going to be much longer than people anticipated and go to levels much higher than anticipated as well. thevolatility of the stop-and-go economy that we're in only continues to challenge supply chain and also challenge products getting to the marketplace to meet that demand. demand is unbelievable right

now. we continue to see projects picking up into 2022 we don't really see any end in sight, at least for the first half of this coming up year. >> to unpack what you just said, is it that both demand and supply shortages have been the catalyst for the recent move >> absolutely. a lot of the topic on the demand side has been mostly new home construction, but i think a lot of people are neglecting to recognize how powerful the repair, remodel and diy segment continues to be. as prices declined in the third quarter of 2021, we definitely saw a change in consumer behavior when they really stopped at those peak prices in early may and june and really came back into the marketplace and started to support the adjusted price scenarios now that we've gone into the end of this year and into next year, that trend has continued, so we've seen the big boxes, that

takeaway at those stores continue to ramp up as well as regionally in the marketplace such as the northeast where you have such a large existing home base, which that base is very, let's just say, aged in order to update it, you're going to continue to see continued demand in that repair and remodel segment. >> you see it everywhere so is this purely a physical goods market or is there an aspect of financialization to it i'm wondering do people pile in on the earlier drive to the highs? did financial players get cleared out? and who's in the market now? >> today i would say it's more of a traditional market. we followed a more cyclical pattern. because of the supply chain issues, those moves up and down are just much more steep and so i would say we're going to continue to follow a very, very seasonal push if you remember, we talked about this earlier this year, the push

to all-time highs started back in q4 of 2020. it went into q2 of '21 we're following a very similar pattern again this year. >> so for all of us who like to look at lumber as maybe a window into the broader inflation issues right now, basically you're saying we've had more volatility than normal and that you think prices will remain double or more what they were pre-pandemic >> absolutely. we talk about 1.5 to 3 times more is the new range that lumber will trade until we see an inflection point and slowing down of the cycle. >> or you can grow a lot more trees. kyle, thank you for joining us today. it's great to check back in with you. >> great, kelly, thank you. >> kyle little of sherwood lumber. next a closer look at the restaurant industry. we'll tell you which names are most at risk

welcome back to "the exchange," everybody the dowes up 126 so we're only 70 points off session highs despite briefly turning negative a little earlier the strongest perform is the s&p today. this has been a strong week for markets actually all 11 sectors are in the green for the week but technology by far the leader materials having a nice time up 3% consumer discretionary adding 2% that's the biggest laggard so it tells you about it apes look away because amc is

set to close at its lowest level since may after the ceo sold 300,000 shares as part of estate planning amc is on pace for its third straight week of losses and is trading under $27 a share. beyond meat is going back to the drawing board after taco bell rejected its plant-based carne asada. despite today's move which is a decline of 18%, beyond meat is on pace to snap a four-day losing streak which is the longest bear stretch in a year and a half. and square is no more. its name officially changes in block today in a move the company says will focus on new technologies like blockchain its shares regardless are down 38% from their reeccent high. now to rahel solomon. a congressional report on

drug pricing is slamming the pharmaceutical industry. a three-year investigation claims that drug makers increase prices to meet revenue and are also accused of abusing patent protections. one of the handful of drivers who won the indianapolis 500 four times has died. al unser won his last at the age of 47. he is dead at the age of 82. and then stockholm this year's noknknobel laureates were there. tonight on the news students sounding the alarm and possibly preventing a mass shooting that's tonight at 7:00 eastern you're now up to date, kelly. >> that is quite a story thank you very much, rahel solomon. coming up, fedex, lenar and

rivian out with results. take a look at some of the social media stocks, down today but having a pretty good week. twitter on pace to snap an eight-week losing streak snap is having its best week since september. and pinterest on track to snap a four-week losing streak of its own. we're backn mont ia me

welcome back, everyone it's time for earnings exchange where we give you the action, the story and the trade and some big names set to have results. on deck are lenar, fedex and rivian lennar reports wednesday and the street is expecting earnings of $4 a share on $8.2 billion in sales. they're expected to build around 18,000 new units as the housing boom continues shares today hitting an all-time high, up more than 50% this year but of course they have a lot of headwinds to deal with as well with the labor and supply front. joining me is diana olick and gina sanchez who is here to give

us our trades. all right, diana, lennar, is this a bellwether for the housing industry >> yeah, lennar and d.r. horton specifically with lennar we'll be looking at that supply chain issue because we saw both d.r. horton and lennar talk about having to slow sales because of issues with supply chain and they wouldn't want to sell homes they couldn't deliver on time. we're also laser focused on home prices we saw toll brothers report an extremely high jump in the average price per home in their last quarter so we'll be watching that as well as demand. we saw unusually high demand this fall from buyers. we want to know if that's going to continue, if they're seeing people coming through the units in december and what that will mean for the next quarter going into january >> we just showed lennar's forward pe is 8 and i'm thinking that can't possibly -- there

must be something wacky going on there. tell me how you think the stock is valued and if you'd be a buyer. >> obviously that's well under what its long-term valuation should be. if you look at the market right now, diane is right that there's very, very strong demand partially because there isn't enough supply. there are lots of headwinds. what is going to happen to interest rates is a big fly in the ointment however, the fact is, is that there's still a tremendous amount of demand that lennar is coming into and that valuation shouldn't be that low. right now it's trading like a value stock, into some headwinds but also some very strong demand. >> so you're bullish, gina, it sounds like on its prospects diana, what else -- commentary, i'm trying to think what else people should have in mind as they prepare for the report next week >> well, interestingly, lennar

is into innovation and they have been selling off some of their investments into smaller companies. they were an investor in open door i spoke with ceo, stuart miller, about the whole situation with zillow and the ibuyer market so it would be interesting to see if there's anything in there about spinning off any of their companies or new investments in innovations they're doing. we saw their announcement to build 3-d homes coming up so you have to wait for lennar to come up with something new. >> and with lumber back on the rise maybe they'll have to address that as well diana, we appreciate it. gina sticks around let's talk some fedex now. they are expected to report eps of $4.28 for the second quarter. now, they blamed last quarter's weak results on labor shortages and supply chain disruptions to add insult to injury, amazon's shipping chief said they'll overtake fedex and competitors as america's largest shipper by next year it has been a tough year for fedex. it's down more than 5% since

january. bob pisani is here with the story. it should be the best of times for fedex, bob, but not so much. >> and that's what you just mentioned. the problem has been the cost. remember, fedex is very tricky because of the way their earnings is set up november is the end of their quarter but their peak business is in december so it's a little tricky for them giving guidance. they got clobbered -- you see that drop there. they got clobbered the last two quarters on the higher costs they're trying to go to the seven-day delivery schedule and have incurred higher costs around that. then covid and supply chain issues affected them as well everybody is focused on how are they going to control costs better they're talking about a lot more automation that's what people want to hear about. they're talking about drone technology they're talking about buying new planes to make the fleet more efficient. they're going to hire something like 90,000 workers in the next -- for this month essentially, so that's the big question can you handle it. so this is the conundrum for

them the highest costs they incur are right now preparing for peak volume in december so they're going to get all the big revenues in december but they have to lay out all these costs in october and november so let's hear what they have to say about how well they're keeping those costs down. >> and it still trades at less than 12 times forward pe would you be a buyer of the stock? >> we actually own the stock and, yes, there's a lot of short-term bearish news on the sort of having to suck up all of those investments now. but they're also making investments into the long term they have also shown that they have tremendous brand value. they have been able to pass those costs on through to customers. and this is the litmus test over the last three months as to whether or not companies can pass their brand value on and pass those prices through. they're showing that they can. the investments they're making into their e-commerce platform and direct company to buyer

platform, those investments will pay off over time. the e-commerce story is not going away so we think fedex has an interesting long-term story. >> i wonder sometimes, gina, about amazon because it seems to have some businesses with a lot of warts given the benefit of the halo effect it has from other services like amazon web services here they are about to become the number one player but it's obvious to anyone with two eyes that they don't operate more efficiently than fedex or u.p.s. i just wonder is it a blessing or a curse to have primacy in this business over time? >> i think that fedex is going to flex its brand value and its quality control along with its efficiency and obviously they're strong in logistics, this is their business this was not amazon's business so, you know, that's really where the war is going to be held is in that last mile delivery. >> absolutely. all right, let's move along from fedex now to rivian.

one of the hottest stocks in the market and one of the biggest names searched analysts are expecting a loss of about is it $12 a share? holy cow $12 a share in its first report since going public they have yet to make a profit but they are expecting to gain traction and be a real threat in the ev space they're expected to deliver twepgt 20,000 vehicles this year bob pisani, i'll go back to you. it's obviously all about the delivery numbers, right? >> yeah, it's a wing and a prayer story it's based on the story that evs are inevitable and thiscompany has some particular first mover advantages, perhaps even over tesla. the story is pretty simple they're targeting suvs and they're targeting light trucks that's a very interesting market to target. they also have some people feel a first mover advantage in commercial electric vehicle vans

that's a very interesting space to work in so they're not just doing mass produced cars, they have a very targeted specific audience they're looking at they're also vertically integrated they have manufacturing power train, in-house software, in-house batteries as well that's a big advantage as well they're going to control the whole supply chain just don't ask me about the valuation. this went to 180 a little while ago. it's back down to 120. they're going to lose money not just this year, probably for the next several years so nobody is doing any pe multiples on this company. and it came down, along with all of the other speculative tech stocks, so there you go. the question isn't whether they're going to do well, they'll do fine. it's like all, even cathie woods' criteria, how much are you willing to pay for it? remember, 180 a little while ago, now down to 120. >> 112 i think 106 was its opening

price that day gina, the truck is getting rave reviews. so for sure this is a beautifully made vehicle would you be a buyer of the stock? >> no, we're staying far away from this, kelly if you look at the outlook relative to where tesla came out when they came out, nobody was really kind of invested in making ev stocks now everybody is invested. you have volkswagen, you have ford, toyota there is a lot of -- there is a lot more competition, at least in the mass market now, i agree with bob that the commercial space, they could definitely have a first mover advantage but ford is flexing their muscles on brands you know the ford f-150 ev is going to be a killer in the market and so i think that the valuation just cannot be supported knowing that there are so many traditional makers that are basically flexing into this space really hard. >> absolutely. now, their $12 loss that is on a

gaap basis and the company wants to strip it out differently, but still deliveries will be something everyone is watching for next week and perhaps reviews as more of those pile in as well. gina, we'll leave it there, gina sanchez. bob pisani, we appreciate your time as well. the residential solar stocks have been under pressure lately and california could deal them yet another blow we will explain why, right after this when it comes to autism, finding the right words can be tough. finding understanding doesn't have to be. together, we can create a kinder, more inclusive world for the millions of people on the autism spectrum. go to autismspeaks.org

everything you've seen me do was made possible by what you don't see. cause when you're not looking, i go to work. ♪♪ strength isn't a given. it's grown. it's earned and tested. ♪♪ we all have the strength to see what's possible. it's up to us to unlock it. tonal. be your strongest. what's strong with me? i know when i'm ready it'for a rest day.nlock it.

so i can be ready for anything... tomorrow. find out what's strong with you with fitbit sense and daily readiness. welcome back california is considering rolling back a key incentive for solar customers and it's weighing on the solar stocks pippa stevens is here with that story. >> hey, kelly. well, a lot is at stake here and it comes down to a policy called net energy metering. this is when solar-powered homes and businesses are credited for the power they send back to the grid the policy has been key to rooftop solar's growth in california where there are 1.3

million systems installed. the state is divided about what these incentives should look like going forward a number of parties submitted proposals to the commission for consideration and they vary widely at the simplest, the three largest utility companies want to cut the rate they pay for that excess solar and also add monthly charges for resi solar customers. they say they unfairly shift grid costs on to those without grid panels. the storage association has called for a gradual decrease in the credit the utility's proposal would be sudden death for the industry because it increases the payback period for a solar system which is how long it takes you to make back that initial installation cost because of your lower electric bills residential solar stocks have come under pressure, down more than 20% in the last month now, proposed decision could come as soon as today.

it will then be followed by a comment period with the final outcome expected early next year a lot going on here, kelly. >> it's fascinating because we expect california to be going more aggressively toward incentivizing renewables maybe because they have made such good inroads they don't need that support anymore. do we know how the commission is likely to rule >> there are a lot of different opinions and everyone has very compelling data points that illustrate their point and a lot of polarizing view the expectation is there will be some net decrease in the rate. some people say the utility's proposal kind of was shooting for the stars and aiming for the moon and so any middle grounding would still be detrimental for the industry but there are a lot of questions. we'll get this proposed decision and the entire commission will vote on it later next year so a lot of questions until then some uncertainty for the stocks going forward.

>> for anyone right now trying to make that decision, a huge change in the calculus pippa, thank you very much coming up, between covid concerns, rising costs and higher wages, restaurants can't seem to catch a break. the names inflation is hitting hardest, next. you can catch the show any time by listening and following "the exchange" podcast check out my conversations with kelly, deeper dives on topics in the market like energy, the metaverse, you name it just follow "the exchange. we're back in a moment

what's strong with me? i'm ready for anything. find out what's strong with you with fitbit charge 5 and daily readiness. ("jingle bells") ♪ (doors knocking and bells ringing to the music) ♪ - [announcer] this holiday season, give the gift of grubhub.

this is elodia. she's a recording artist. 1 of 10 million people that comcast has connected to affordable internet in the last 10 years. and this is emmanuel, a future recording artist, and one of the millions of students we're connecting throughout the next 10. through projectup, comcast is committing $1 billion so millions more students, past... and present, can continue to get the tools they need to build a future of unlimited possibilities.

welcome back november's jump in inflation is mostly due to surging prices in energy, shelter and food combine that with wage inflation and restaurants are feeling some pain these days. kate rogers has a look at some of the most affected names so far. >> no one is safe from inflation and it's come up on every earnings call this season. what is interesting are the names that consumers seem to be willing to pay a bit more for. fast food and qsr names a bit better positioned even with rising wages chipotle is well positioned to handle rising cost and executives expressed confidence protecting margins moving ahead.

mcdonald's increased prices around 6% and saw no consumer pullback shake shack's ceo while commodity prices and labor are pressing the margins, they also think they have additional room to run another interesting name consumers seem to be willing to pay for is sweet green it's in the top five of major qsrs ahead of mcdonald's and chipotle of average unit volumes, average checks of consumers $15. despite that the stock down 15% this month the casual dining names not so lucky nearly all getting hit by investors pulling back take a look at dine brands, texas roadhouse. many have raised prices, pivoted to delivery or launched virtual brands but you can't get away from the fact a lot of these are sitdown dining names if costs are going up across the board, consumers might not be willing to pay more.

>> i always see sweet green next to the luxury wings in malls. delivery costs, food costs, supply costs, labor costs, all of these inflationary pressures the restaurant industry is facing investors are taking notice. while the s&p is up 5%, the restaurant chains like texas roadhouse, cheesecake factory, and brinker are going the other way. is there more pain ahead as consumers try to deal with price hikes and how can investors decide which brands are more susceptible? joining me now is andy beara ae andy, it's great to see you. what names do you think are best positioned >> thanks for having me on we look at the casual dining categories where there really is a lot of opportunity it goes back really to what happened during the pandemic when a lot of capacity in competing small chains and

independents was taken out by the pandemic the casual dining brands that were able to pivot like a lot of the bigger chains benefitted from that and were able to increase sales through an incremental layer of off-premise sales. actually the top line has been really quite good. clearly today the question has been costs and margins you know, happy to discuss that a little bit more as we move forward here. >> you're pretty positive still on companies like brinker, bloomin, cheesecake factory, texas roadhouse. why is that? it seems like maybe a couple can do well, a couple of others have been a little weaker, maybe like brinker. explain why for all of them you're still pretty bullish. >> yeah, because we think the calendar third quarter earnings report were really the bottom in terms of the negativity on margins and cost pressures and a lot of companies had not

taken significant pricing yet, including brinker, which was only running about a half a point of price as well as bloomin, which hadn't taken pricing in over two years and has subsequently taken an additional 3 points of new pricing increases. texas roadhouse, as you mentioned, is not one of our favorites because of the beef exposure and i think that's going to be a commodity that will continue to be pressured for a long period of time, while we think the 3q and 4q here will be kind of the peak and inflationary pressures and some of the transitory costs for a lot of of these casual dining restaurants. >> that's a good point about beef, that's interesting tell me about darden you seem to be more neutral on that as well

they were making another million dollars in additional investment in their team members as we move forward in fiscal '22 including getting all starting wages to $15 of $15 an hour, taking wage increases starting in zbran for tenured employees. also committing to having a $17 average wage by the summer of 2022 in addition to all the other benefits and growth opportunities that starbucks provides i actually think they are one of the better-positioned companies in terms of attracting and retaining team members to continue the phenomenal recovery

they have had in sales as well as growing new units obviously, some ofrd but i don't think it is going to be a widespread phenomenon for starbucks or the rest of the industry. >> bullish on the restaurant space broadly speaking, we appreciate it. coming up, last weekend's bitcoin crash tigering investors to sell, down 10% this week. who is lowing in the towel on crypto may surprise you. we will at the you that next

new projects means new project managers. you need to hire.

i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. what's strong with me? whose resumes on indeed mi know when i'm readya. for a rest day. so i can be ready for anything... tomorrow. find out what's strong with you with fitbit sense and daily readiness.

("jingle bells") ♪ (doors knocking and bells ringing to the music) ♪ - [announcer] this holiday season, give the gift of grubhub. welcome back the price of woin falling more than 27% over the past month kate rooney with a look at who

is selling out they are going to be blackballed. >> the bulk of the selling appears to be coming from some of these short-term buyers they appear to be throwing in the towel at these levels. short-term meaning they bought in the last few months here. they are not those who have been holding more than three months they are the newer buyers here bitcoin has been trading below what they call the average cost basis for these investors, the price where is most of them got in right now that average cost basis is around $53,000 that's according to glass note. there is something called the short-term holder sopr analysts have been watching that lately it measures the profitability of coins when they are sold right now it's showing a lot more bitcoin being sold below the price where it was bought, so at a loss these are the least profitable levels we have seen in six months glass note analysts call this a hallmark of capitulation by newer buyers

they say also this appears to be the only cohorts reacting to the events of the last week and more mature holders are holding those who are selling appear to be those who bought at the top, they are realizing some of the losses and capitulating. as for the long term holders, they are sometimes amized as the smart money here a. lot mess slg by that group. and finally, those who hold more than $10 million of bitcoin. they are called whales the number of whale waltz dropped since early november but the total supply held by that top 1% appears to be accumulating that's according to data from genesis and coin metrics. >> sort of subliminally this idea of was it the people who got in early and the public who was able to benefit but now the investors canlock up supply and

make this i guess the worst version of guess of hoarding it was something what you said about the sopr there are so many metrics that are kind of this crypto world's version of the stuff we are more used to in terms of technicals and fundamentals but you can't do the usual stuff with crypto. >> you can watch the movement in a hot of different bitcoin you can't tell who is necessarily selling it there is no name attached but you can see the number it is an interesting way to analyze it it is a new asset class and old score indicators don't seem to work >> i imagine this is welcome news to those who think there was too much speculation for people who got in more recent. most of the time people who were in it early think bitcoin has more room to run, right. >> lot of the leverage has been flushed out. it is stuck at the $48,000

level, that's line that analysts are watching they say if it can recover above $53,000, that might change sentiment. it is a key number here to watch, something analysts have been watching. otherwise a lot of folks are underwater here at these prices. >> still about five grand below that level thanks, kate rooney. thank fortuning into "the exchange," stay right there, "power lunch" begins right now. >> kelly, we will see new a inin welcome to "power lunch," everybody. here's what's ahead. a busy end of the week inflation accelerating, prices surge at their fastest pace in 39 years 1982, it was the year i came to new york to start my career in financial journalism i remember it. it was runaway inflation interest rates went up it was wild. investors are looking for companies that have pricin